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Adenauer as colonial administrator is just pure evil. It really shows that you don't like him -- after all, he dreamed to rule a Rhenish state, and not Africa. :D But otherwise; good update, although Schumacher seems too bigoted, for my taste.

I actually don't think you'd see the 1914 borders; even by OTL's 1929, a lot of the German right didn't want those. The corridor, yes. But certainly, if Poland is distracted they might not mind a bid to seize the Corridor.

Basically I agree and probably only the Corridor would be seized during the upcoming Polish Civil War, presumably even without a full-scale Polish-German war, as the Reichswehr could possibly just use the chaos in Poland to occupy the Corridor and present the Polish with a fait accompli. However, if Poland in fact becomes Fascist due to the Civil War, I would, considering Stresemann's course of action against Austria, expect that a neighbouring Fascist Poland (that, in contrast to La Rocque's France, would never stop to view Germany as an enemy, unless the Soviets do something stupid) would be either crippled or replaced with a more conciliatory regime by means of a war. And while a lot of the German right didn't want to wage a war for the 1914 borders, a lot of the German right would nevertheless burn Schumacher in effigy if he would not exploit the situation of a Polish defeat to restore the 1914 borders.

Actually, Schumacher, as a Social Democrat, is the unpredictable factor in this question. While he would probably have as an otherwise "pacifist" Social Democrat no scruples to seize the Corridor by force (in OTL, Schumacher stronlgy opposed after World War II the renouncement of FRG claims on Germany's Versailles territory; and even insisted on the Corridor) and would probably try to eliminate a Fascist Poland in some way, I would also say that he would refrain from restoring the 1914 borders during a war against a possible Fascist Poland as only few ethnic Germans lived ATL and OTL by 1939 in these territories. But if it were not for a Social Democrat, and if indeed some fascist dictatorship arises in Poland, I would not categorically rule 1914 borders out.

That's 85 million, no? Besides, why would La Rocque be immune to misspeaking?

No, it's 80 million if you round correctly with the precise numbers. :p And while La Rocque is not immune to misspeaking, it is somewhat startling that his misspeaking is answered by Stresemann with silence who should have a good overview over the population number of his own nation.

Just kidding. ;)
 
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Much has been made of Germany's pursuit of colonies, and being a bunch of bright lads, I do not need to tell you colonies were viewed as a way to build national unity in Germany since the era of Bismarck.

You don't need to tell us that...but you just did. :p

La Rocque's reply was considerably more brusque, as the French military was insistent that the security of France required maintenance of the Sub-Saharan colonies. Indeed, the 4th Republic's treatment of colonies, to be the subject of a later post, laid the groundwork for the Generals' Coup of 1956, and France's dark decade. But that is a tale for another time. (Perhaps the next post, if there's interest).

I am certainly interested.
 
You don't need to tell us that...but you just did. :p

Xanatos gambit. That's me.

I am certainly interested.

It's what I do.
Adenauer as colonial administrator is just pure evil. It really shows that you don't like him -- after all, he dreamed to rule a Rhenish state, and not Africa. :D But otherwise; good update, although Schumacher seems too bigoted, for my taste.

bigoted how?

Schumacher was in a lot of ways, OTL, a bit of a prig. I ascribe a lot of this to 12 years in a concentration camp (that'd put a crimp in anyone's attitude) but he could be pretty rude when he wanted to be, and he was never a fan of the military.

It's not necessarily a demotion, and Schumacher can't order Adenauer there. The best comparison I can think of is a recent one, when Obama appointed the governor of Utah, a prominent Republican who was thought to be the best candidate to beat him in 2012, to be the ambassador to China.



No, it's 80 million if you round correctly with the precise numbers. :p And while La Rocque is not immune to misspeaking, it is somewhat startling that his misspeaking is answered by Stresemann with silence who should have a good overview over the population number of his own nation.

Just kidding. ;)

Pfff.
 
Ah, the intriques of French colonial policy await, while the insanity of OTL naval buildup continues. And hooray for continuing the long and glorious story of Prusso-German naval tradition: "Let's build an inferiour and expensive navy that will bravely fight and sink, so that we can then use the legacy of their glorious defeat as an excuse and prime reason to waste even more resources on our next navy!"
 
It's not necessarily a demotion, and Schumacher can't order Adenauer there. The best comparison I can think of is a recent one, when Obama appointed the governor of Utah, a prominent Republican who was thought to be the best candidate to beat him in 2012, to be the ambassador to China.

I think it was more of a "peel the moderates away from the crazies" approach than trying to get rid of your closest rival.
 
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Ah, the intriques of French colonial policy await, while the insanity of OTL naval buildup continues. And hooray for continuing the long and glorious story of Prusso-German naval tradition: "Let's build an inferiour and expensive navy that will bravely fight and sink, so that we can then use the legacy of their glorious defeat as an excuse and prime reason to waste even more resources on our next navy!"

tsk.

I apologize if it wasn't clear, but Schumacher caught onto that; hence the Anglo-German agreement in return for the East African experiment.
 
bigoted how?

Schumacher was in a lot of ways, OTL, a bit of a prig. I ascribe a lot of this to 12 years in a concentration camp (that'd put a crimp in anyone's attitude) but he could be pretty rude when he wanted to be, and he was never a fan of the military.

You pointed it actually out for me. The fact that in your timeline, Schumacher is not going into a concentration camp, would normally suggest that he's a little bit more ... tolerant. Especially as he's no fool and, while he may dislike the military for ideological reasons, knows that he has to work with them and that the Republic needs a military which is in good shape. And as one of the very few Social Democrats I would call an outright Nationalist, he should make (and historically did make) a clear distinction between the military as an institution and the people which are a part of it. The soldiers and officers, including Dönitz, are serving the nation, after all, and so his nationalistic attitude should basically restrain him to a minimum of good manners when personally dealing with soldiers and officers.

They're not communists, after all, who rightfully deserve the Schumacherian kind of wrath, arrogance and dismissiveness. :D

It's not necessarily a demotion, and Schumacher can't order Adenauer there. The best comparison I can think of is a recent one, when Obama appointed the governor of Utah, a prominent Republican who was thought to be the best candidate to beat him in 2012, to be the ambassador to China.

I just can't imagine how Adenauer would have possibly agreed to such a, forgive me, ludicrous idea. "Oh, Herr Adenauer, could you please go to Africa and tame the natives for the League?" Considering Adenauer's loose tongue, he would have probably replied: "Are we taking opium again, Mr. President?" ;) And Adenauer is, as someone who is more loyal to the Catholic Rhineland than to Germany, also not inclined to serve as a governor or ambassador out of a patriotic sense of duty or just because Schumacher asks him to do so. Actually, considering that it is indeed a scheme to weaken the conservatives in Germany, he would have probably told Schumacher that if he wants to run colonies, he should see that a Social Democrat is the governor. It would have the nice side effect of making a mockery out of the Social Democrat's alleged anti-colonialism, which has, in Adenauer's narrowminded political opportunism, precedence over any kind of remote patriotism he could possibly have.


Be proud of it! You created such a wonderful AAR that it is a paradise for nit-pickers like me. :) And I hope to see another update soon!
 
tsk.

I apologize if it wasn't clear, but Schumacher caught onto that; hence the Anglo-German agreement in return for the East African experiment.

One should never reply too hastily. So only Bismarck then? Without the war to mess things up the world may rather soon be in a point where the Soviet Union can indeed build a decent navy, just like Stalin always envisioned - Germany certainly is not the only continental power where key military planners have fixation to expansion of naval power.
 
One should never reply too hastily. So only Bismarck then? Without the war to mess things up the world may rather soon be in a point where the Soviet Union can indeed build a decent navy, just like Stalin always envisioned - Germany certainly is not the only continental power where key military planners have fixation to expansion of naval power.

Oh, absolutely. Although given the results with OTL's Soviet warships, I expect a lot of teething problems.

I still oscillate on how much the USSR would have built up without Hitler. I think a lot of the buildup was directly traceable to Hitler's rise to power, and IMO it's no coincedence the USSR's military budget increased significantly after 1933. Hrm.

You pointed it actually out for me. The fact that in your timeline, Schumacher is not going into a concentration camp, would normally suggest that he's a little bit more ... tolerant. Especially as he's no fool and, while he may dislike the military for ideological reasons, knows that he has to work with them and that the Republic needs a military which is in good shape. And as one of the very few Social Democrats I would call an outright Nationalist, he should make (and historically did make) a clear distinction between the military as an institution and the people which are a part of it. The soldiers and officers, including Dönitz, are serving the nation, after all, and so his nationalistic attitude should basically restrain him to a minimum of good manners when personally dealing with soldiers and officers.

I suspect that Schumacher would like and be very popular with a lot of the sailors (especially now that there's some form of selective service), but Doenitz?

But, hrm. I actually suspect Schumacher would get along better with someone like Dönitz, who grew up in Berlin and didn't have quite the "Prussian officer" ethos of a lot of the military. It's probably a bit of my hatred of the German military seeping through. So good point.

I just can't imagine how Adenauer would have possibly agreed to such a, forgive me, ludicrous idea. "Oh, Herr Adenauer, could you please go to Africa and tame the natives for the League?" Considering Adenauer's loose tongue, he would have probably replied: "Are we taking opium again, Mr. President?" ;) And Adenauer is, as someone who is more loyal to the Catholic Rhineland than to Germany, also not inclined to serve as a governor or ambassador out of a patriotic sense of duty or just because Schumacher asks him to do so.

Think of it this way. What's Adenauer going to do to say in the national limelight, if not go to East Africa? (I might actually retcon this to just a German colony in Tanganyika. As much as I like a League mandate for East Africa, looking at the Charter it might require French approval, which I don't know if would be forthcoming, and then the Kenyan settlers are an issue. While Attlee was willing to ignore them in OTL, once in power it might be harder than when proposing ideas from the opposition).

But the colony is a way to show that he has state-building skills, stay in the limelight, and most importantly, do something other than criticize Stresemann angrily from the sidelines.
 
With Liberty and Justice For All


"Per il pane, per il lavoro, per la terra, per la pace, per la liberta!"- "For bread, for work, for land, for peace, for freedom"-Italian Communist Party Slogan, 1921.

"Man is the end. Not the state"-Carlo Rosselli​

If you were in Rome on October 3, 1931, and looked up, you would have seen a sign of how desperate some were for freedom. For almost half an hour an antifascist dissident, Lauro DeBosis, risked his life to drop fliers above the city's streets from a plane he flew from France. Readers would pick up fliers that warned that "Italians are suffering as a servile herd," and Lauro flew so low that some thought he was going to land in the Piazza Venezia. It was a heroic act. It was a futile one. Lauro's plane would crash mysteriously off the coast of Corsica, and no one in Rome cared about what some damn kid thought. [1] Heroes Italy had aplenty.
This is not their story. This is the story of the Fascists who cut a deal to save their skins; of liberal professors who stayed behind rather than toss aside their careers; and of revolutionaries who plotted with a king. And it begins with the man who inspired a youth to drop garbage onto Rome, Carlo Rosselli.

Rosselli was born to a liberal Tuscan Jewish family who were active in Republican politics. After fighting in the Great War, Rosselli, like so many rich young liberals, joined the Socialist movement and witnessed the destruction of Italian democracy at Mussolini's hands. Rosselli began writing for opposition journals, helped the liberal academic Filippo Turati escape, and, after he was himself arrested, escaped on a yacht a friend purchased from an Egyptian prince in the Riviera. [2] Disillusioned with the Socialist Party in exile, he founded, Justice and Liberty. In true Italian fashion, it promptly began quarreling with the other opposition movements in exile.

Guistizia e Liberta (Justice and Liberty) had two benefits over the other groups. First, he was a charismatic writer, persuading many emigres to join his group. Secondly, he was rich, which gave him resources other parties lacked. Under Rosselli, Giustizia Giustizia e Liberta's platform was a vague blend of republicanism, anarchism, and socialism. To Rosselli, the way to take down Mussolini was through drastic action; a democratic march on Rome, or an emulation of Garibaldi's red shirts. In July 1930 Giustizia e Liberta conducted a daring flight over Milan, dropping pamphlets on the city. [3]

After the Spanish Revolution of 1931, Rosselli met with Spanish leaders, such as Manuel Azana, to discuss the possibility of using Spanish airports for propaganda flights over Italy. The use of propaganda flights reached a peak on October 3, 1931, when a Giustizia e Liberta follower flew over Rome, dropping leaflets which urged the people to revolt. Although the plane was shot down off Corsica, Rosselli's urge for dramatic action would only grow after the Spanish Civil war.

When the civil War broke out, Mussolini dispatched 44,000 "volunteers," investing his nation's resources and prestige in overthrowing the Spanish Republic. Yet Mussolini was not the only Italian to intervene. In June of 1936, Justice and Liberty marched south. Giustizia e Liberta proceeded to Catalonia, where he organized troops to act as his Redshirts for the "coming Italian Revolution." Rosselli's initial force was ptitiful, some 130 men who he led from the Ford automobile he drove down from Paris. While they were the first troops in the field, they were few in number, and the wave of Communist resources soon gave them control over the Garibaldi Battalion, as the Italian Republican volunteers were known. Even Rosselli's unit had a Communist commissar[4]. In France, meanwhile, the Italian Communists made every effort to gain control of Italian emigrants in Europe, and dispatched them to Spain as well, to serve in the Garibaldi Brigade.

But the Garibaldi Battalion was not composed solely of communists; its members included old-fashioned liberals, anarchists, and Rosselli, with his belief in Giustizia e Liberta. In late 1936, Rosselli hit upon the idea of reshaping his column into a "motorized revolutionary force," with the aim of blitzing behind enemy lines. [5] Rosselli copied the Communist system of political commissars, and installed one in his own unit, who spent most of his time arguing with the Communist commisar. Rosselli also became the voice of Free Italy, broadcasting from Madrid.

"Just as in the darkest stages of the risorgimento when no one hoped, there came from abroad the example of initiative, so today awe are convinced that from this modest but virile force of Italian volunteers a powerful will to achieve redemption will find its source. Today in Spain, tomorrow in Italy!"​
-Carlo Rosselli, broadcasting from Madrid, 1936

01resistenza672458resiz.jpg

Banner of Justice and Liberty in Spain

Yet Rosselli's experience in the Spain would influence not just his own political views, but the European left and the struggle for power in post-Fascist Italy.

___________________________________________________​

It was the tastes that got to you. Coffee, fresh from Brazil when the front line made do with chicory. Flaky pastries made with chocolate and sugar. Ham, eggs, and chopped liver. Rosselli had been raised Jewish, but his mouth still watered as he sat at in Gaylord's with "Alfredo," as the leader of the Italian Communist Party was known here. Madrid was under strict rationing, but you would never tell by the food the Russians ate. [6]

"Alfredo" was, of course, Palmiro Togliatti, the leader of the Italian Communist Party, and a member of the Comintern with the ear of Stalin. So surely he would be able to help Rosselli. "Comrade Togliatti," he asked, "might I ask what has happened to Comrade Balducci?"

In all the time Rosselli had known Togliatti, and they had debated, sparred, and quarreled for years, he had never seen him smile. Too much time among the Russians, probably. And so it wasn't out of the ordinary for Togliatti to keep his voice flat as he said, "he was a traitor to the Republic."

"Balducci? No! A bit naïve politically, but he had been fighting since the first days of the war."

Togliatti spread his hands. "He had anarchist literature, he wrote letters to friends in France and Germany criticizing the war, and he confessed to far worse."

And that ended that. "I see." Rosselli had heard about the confessions. Who hadn't, by this point? The Republic's secret police had been taught by the NKVD, many who'd been kept on as advisors. Rosselli had been imprisoned in Mussolini's Italy. What happened in Spain was far worse.

It was not even worth asking how they'd found out. . Best to change the subject, and ask about getting more artillery for his brigade.

_____________________________________________​

Rosselli's own writings from this period are circumspect, and the letters he sent home were often seemingly random, discussing classical history instead of the affairs in Spain. While his initial letters had discussed the exuberance and joy of the revolution, this vanished and Rosselli restricted his observations to describing the sun-bleached plains of Castille, where Republican tanks slowly ground the Nationalists to a powder of blood and bone. The fraternal atmosphere that characterized the soldiers' in the first weeks of the war, where both sides took a siesta and wine around noon, was replaced with descriptions of bloated corpses that stank so bad that the soldiers donned gas masks.

Vanished too was the revolutionary fervor that had greeted the Revolution.
Rosselli noted that usted had come back into fashion, replacing comrade; the black markets that catered to those with connection; and occassional mentions to the purge in Barcelona. All in the name of discipline, of course.

________________________​

The Nationalists had holed up in a church. Maybe they thought God would protect them. The fallen roof and wounded coming out, hands above their heads, proved them wrong. "Are there more inside?" he asked one of the soldiers on the scene, a Belgian kid who'd joined his unit. The kid had blonde hair and blue eyes, and when he smiled seemed fourteen. He spoke Spanish fluently. There was a story there, he knew. But it wasn't his business.

The kid carried a rifle, now. He'd shot a prisoner two weeks ago, and been given a pat on the back by his officer for it.

"Yes, those who can't walk." The kid lit a cigarette, offered one to Rosselli. As he shook his head, he noted the pack was in Russian. "And we found a few of the Blue Shirts."

"Of course we had." Everyone knew what that meant. "Where are they?"

"The Commissar's with them, in that house, sir." No Comrade. Rosselli hadn't heard Comrade on the front for over a year now. Maybe it belonged to the mayor, or a doctor, before the war. If they were here now they'd know better to complain.

Rosselli entered, and spoke briefly to the Commissar, a Catalan who'd become fiercely devoted to the Republic. When he found out they wouldn't confess to any wrongdoing, he merely gave the orders and went in to see them.

One of them had a bandage covering his eye, dark red from blood, but still alert. "What are you going to do with us?'

"You are enemies of the Republic, and not soldiers in arms but rather defenders of the Fascists. And so, death."

"When?"

"Now. Here and now, so the town can see Revolutionary Justice." Somehow the words seemed capitalized, even when spoken. "Have you anything to say?"

"Nothing, but this is an ugly thing."

The Belgian kid spoke up. "You're an ugly thing, oppressor of the peasants. You'd shoot your own mother if a don asked you to."

The bandaged fascist laughed. "I never shot anyone's mother, you little prick. And at least I know who my father was."

The scary thing was the kid didn't even reply. His anarchists, when this began, would have punched a fascist who said that. Somehow the discipline unnerved Rosselli more.

It didn't matter, really. He'd seen enough towns fall across Spain to see what would happen. After seeing nuns get shot while praying, or a fascist horse dealer beaten to death by the town because he'd been a supporter of Franco, what was two more deaths? These men were at least guilty.

If the kid was thinking along the same lines, he didn't show it. "And so the Republic advances, Sir. Tomorrow in Italy, no?"

Rosselli looked up. "Oh, yes. Tomorrow in Italy."

_________________________________________​

"There is a monster in the contemporary world, the state, which is in the process of devouring the society. The contemporary dictator state has deeply changed all human relationships…has replaced freedom with arbitrariness and equality with military camp discipline… In the modern dictator state, the logical consequence of statism, there is no longer a place for the human being."


Rosselli's own writing during this period marks what some have called the "Death of Marxism" in European socialist thought. As early as 1934, Rosselli's own writing moved away from Communist totalitarianism and towards what some classified as anarchism, but, as his post-Civil War writings would indicate, reflected an affirmation of classical liberalism and a fear of ‘religione pagana di Stato’: the religion of the state.

Rosselli's writing during the Civil War years was strangely subdued, but when he returned from Spain in 1938, as the Republican victory seemed assured, he began to write a scathing critique of trends in the European left, and suggesting that it was time for an "explicit break with Marxism."[7]

Rosselli's vision of a post-fascist Italy entailed capitalism bound by regulation; ending the "absurd monopoly on patriotism held by the so-called nationalist parties"; and a commitment to a society based on liberty and justice for all, not just the "negative outdated Marxist fetish for class warfare."
With the declassification of Comintern archives, we know that Rosselli left Spain only shortly he was scheduled to be "purged," and there is no denying that the Popular Front formed between Justice and Liberty and the Communist Party broke down in the aftermath of his departure, although the two parties remained committed to "working with all antifascist movements for the reconstruction of Italy."

But the tensions were manifest, and things came to a breaking point in March of 1942. Italy's Fascist Grand Council oversaw an economy that had sputtered to a halt, and the Yugoslavian morass had only further dented the regime's prestige. When the wave of strikes began to spread, and the Red Flag was raised over Fiat's factory in Turin, it was clear to all that it was time to act. But how?

[1] This happened in OTL actually.

[2] This also happened. Rosselli would later claim that the prison's guards were eating ice cream and were so not around when he tried to escape. I'd make some comment about the banality of evil, but I can't blame a man for wanting ice cream.

[3] It was cool, even if nobody noticed.

[4] This happened in OTL. Rosselli ended up being killed while on leave in France in OTL 1936, but in the ATL the 4th Republic is not a place for antifascist Italian emigres, and so he ends up in England on leave instead.

[5] Rosselli came up with this idea in OTL as well.

[6] Soviet troops were kept isolated in Madrid, but they did end up eating better than everyone else in the city.

[7] Actually Rosselli called for this before the Civil War, but I am presuming the trend becomes more significant.

And as proof that there's a game going along with this, a preview from Rosselli's next stop:

yugoslavianov1940.jpg
 
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I pity Rosselli if peace ever comes to Europe. He's going to get really bored.
 
In post-WW2 situation the Soviet authorities had early high hopes of a ballot box revolution in Italy. With their recent success in Spain, I´d say they would be quite eager to try to repeat their earlier success.

I'd say that Fascism still has enough die-hard support to muster a violent response. And if it comes to a civil war, what side will Germany and France support?
 
I pity Rosselli if peace ever comes to Europe. He's going to get really bored.

Of course, compared to OTL 1940, it is peaceful. "oh no, a civil war in Spain ended and... things are dark in the Balkans."

"Zzzz."

In post-WW2 situation the Soviet authorities had early high hopes of a ballot box revolution in Italy. With their recent success in Spain, I´d say they would be quite eager to try to repeat their earlier success.

I don't know. Is Communism as successful in ATL? It had a lot of support because the Soviets were fighting Nazism and Fascism, after all. Without it I'm not sure that it'd be anymore successful.

I'd say that Fascism still has enough die-hard support to muster a violent response. And if it comes to a civil war, what side will Germany and France support?

I'm not sure I see a civil war. To have a civil war, you need balanced sides, right? Who's going to back the "left" in Italy? The officers are mostly fascist, and there hasn't been the breakdown of the state and military authority that you saw in Italy during OTL 1943-1945.

The way you *might* get a civil war is a democratic government is returned, a few years of peace, and then the fascists react negatively, launching a coup, like in Spain. But you have to wonder if people would be looking for that.
 
I'm not sure I see a civil war. To have a civil war, you need balanced sides, right? Who's going to back the "left" in Italy? The officers are mostly fascist, and there hasn't been the breakdown of the state and military authority that you saw in Italy during OTL 1943-1945. The way you *might* get a civil war is a democratic government is returned, a few years of peace, and then the fascists react negatively, launching a coup, like in Spain. But you have to wonder if people would be looking for that.

Or then they opt for strategia della tensione on a wider scale and try to terrorize the public to think that while fascism might have been bad, democracy will have nothing better to offer. And this will naturally lead to reprisal strikes, while the government is most likely forced to re-install some of the methods of repression and internal security...the abyss gazes back. A bit like Weimar-era Germany, now when I think of it.
 
The Eve of Destruction


"I will hand you over to ravaging men, artisans of destruction. You shall be fuel for the fire, your blood shall flow throughout the land."-Ezekiel 21:36

"It is only necessary to wait for a night when an independent Croatian state will arise, because there will be no more Yugoslavia . . . Whoever does not come along must be killed." -Maks Cavlek, leader of the Croatian Peasant Defense Force, 1937.

Under Macek, the Croats had prepared and armed self-defense forces during the years before the Croatian Revolution, the Hrvatska seljacka zastita (HSZ, Croatian Peasant Defence)in the villages and the Hrvatska gradjanska zastita (HGZ, Croatian Civil Defence) in the cities. [1] Unfortunately, paramilitaries are not the best guardians of order, particularly during a conflict based in ethnic strife. Nor were they the only faction around.

If Macek and the Peasants' Party had been able to maintain control of Croatia, perhaps the worst of what followed could have been avoided. But as soon as the uprising began, Count Ciano and the Fascist Grand Council ordered the release of the Utasha. And then things got worse.

Italy's dealings with the Utasha came as a surprise to many. Since their assassination of the Yugoslav King Alexander in 1934, Mussolini had kept them on a tight leash, imprisoning 700 of them on the island of Lepari and keeping their leader, Ante Pavelic, under watch in Siena. Relations between Pavelic and Macek were also strained, to put it mildly, and since 1936 Pavelic's supporters had called Macek a traitor to Croatia. But the Italians cajoled them into working together, and Ciano put pressure on Italy to force Macek to include Pavelic in the cabinet of the Republic of Croatia, where he was the minister of security. [2]

The Italians themselves quickly moved to seize Split, declaring that it was a free city under their protection. And so winter descended upon Yugoslavia, and by early 1941 had control over the Croatian armed forces. Subject to Italian oversight, of course.

Yet it soon became clear that Macek and Pavelic had overestimated their support, and not all rallied to Croatian seperatism. Within Zagreb itself, Macek's association with the Utasha caused him to be viewed as a dotepenci, or carpet bagger and rumors that Macek had promised the crown of Croatia to a member of the House of Savoy caused a national surge against the new regime. Nor did the city's urban masses support the regime, and only two weeks after the declaration of the Croatian Republic, the Yugoslav Communist Party began a wave of terrorism, assassinating Italian advisors, setting fire to the city's post office, and blowing up a bus carrying some Utasha fighters. [3]

Croatia's clergy were also ambivalent, and while some were enthusiastic supporters of the new regime, others urged the new state to respect the rights of its minorities, declaring "the Croatian nation is proud of our one thousand year culture and Christian tradition. That is why we should show a greater nobility and humanity than our former rulers." [4]

Nor were the Serbs under Croat occupation content with Croatian rule. As the shock of the revolt and the Italian invasion subsided, Serbs began a series of revolts which spread like wildfire.[3] And as the the Serbian military came to terms with the revolt, and stabilized the line, the Croatians faced the possibility of a large 5th column behind their lines.

The Croats were also surprised by Bosnian neutrality in the conflict. Although Croatian nationalism viewed Bosnians as Muslim Croats, who were viewed as the "purist of Croats," [5] Bosnians, who had their own issues with Belgrade, were unwilling to join the Croats out of fear that a) they would lose and b) Bosnians aren't Croats despite whatever somebody tells them. Indeed, by the end of 1940 it appeared that the insurrection would be crushed, as Belgrade's forces retook much of Bosnia and closed in on Zagreb.

Ultimately, Italy's undoing would be its failure to recognize that some parties benefitted from the status quo. There were plenty of parties that would have The Italians were correct to think that there were plenty of people who wanted a piece of Yugoslavia. But there were also plenty of parties who had no desire to see Yugoslavia broken up.

While the average German had a dislike of the Serbs for their role in starting the Weltkrieg, Yugoslavia had become a fairly important German trading partner, and Italian aggression had improved Yugoslav-German ties.[6] For France, Yugoslavia had been a traditional member of the Little Entente, and pro-Serb loyalties existed. [7]. As for Britain? While no Britons would die for Montenegro (this time), dynastic links between the Royal Family and the Yugoslav monarchy meant they hostile to the Croatian insurrection. Together, these powers pressured the remaining Balkan States from any over acts; something unlikely in any case, as Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Greece had various military ties to Yugoslavia.

While Hungary moved to seize Novi Sad, it affirmed it was doing so only to protect the local minorities. [8] Terrorist groups and IMRO paramilitaries were active in Macedonia, but compared to the escalating crisis in Croatia the local powers cooler heads prevailed and the parties merely watched the ensuing outcome.

More ominously, perhaps, was that Italian efforts to "neutralize" the conflict failed. When the Italians proposed a "non-intervention agreement," the policy was rejected by Germany and the United Kingdom on the grounds that Belgrade represented the legitimate government of Yugoslavia, and it would be a breach of military contracts to cease aiding it. While the Italians provided aircraft to the Croatians, along with volunteers, Germany deployed additional forces to the Yugoslav border and stepped air patrols along the region. [9]

yrafhawkerhurricane.jpg

A Yugoslav Hawker Hurricane. Such aircraft let the Yugoslavs challenge Italian 'volunteers" for control of the skies over Croatia

Of course, there are no obvious lines on a map, and there were numerous intense aerial standoffs.[10] It was only a matter of time before the inevitable happened, and on January 21, 1941, German Radio broadcast that the Luftwaffe had been attacked over German soil by the Italian Air Force.

[1] I don't think we should get that sentimentalist about Macek. He wasn't a bloodthirsty monster like Pavelic, but his supporters had no problem engaging in voter intimidation, seeking Italian money, and, well, militias. To some extent the latter reflect the sickness in the Yugoslav state, but... IMO it's telling that while Macek himself rejected armed insurrection in 1936 in an interview with the Times, his followers spread rumors that the Nazis and Italy were preparing to invade to establish a sovereign Croatia.

Belgrade was convinced that a paramilitary force was designed to be used as a posible nucleus for Croatian independence. I think that's plausible enough to go with.

[2] Arguably this is a bit much; the Utasha's base in Croatia was never that significant, and they really ended up running the place only because Malek refused to run the puppet Croat state. But the Italians were very close to the Utash; in late 1939 Ciano met with pavelic to discussing launching a Croatian insurrection, and Mussolini was ultimately dissuaded because of Hungarian warnings.


[3] This is also OTL.

[4] This happened in OTL as well.

[5] Again, OTL. I'm not sure how this went down with peasants raised on tales of the bloodthirsty Turk.

[6] Plus "let's just stop the Italians because we're still sore about Vienna."

[7] The French had heard some rumors of a Croatian insurrection, but those rumors percolated throughout most of the 1930s. France was never informed officially because this was to be an exclusively Italian affair. Just ask Hitler how well this works.

[8] I am simplifying the Balkan Entnte, which like in OTL spent most of the 1930s breaking down. However, there are certainly enough ties to ensure that Bulgaria doesn't get frisky, particularly if it has no great power patron. Hungary's a closer case; it is able to intervene because of Germany's desire to protect the German minority in the Novi Sad region as well.

This is actually an ironic twist on OTL. Royalist partisans, known as the Chekists, were supported by the Italians who thought the Croats under Pavelic were making the place a mess.

[9] I keep debating, "are the Italians this stupid?" And then I think of Italian foreign policy in OTL.

The Italian air force is a WW2 airforce, and accidental bombings of neighboring countries was uncommon during the conflict. So...

[10] Under the command of Erhard Milch, who was a very odd duck. He had a Jewish father, but was one of the founders of the Luftwaffe. A Gestapo investigation in 1935 led to the discovery that he was Jewish, and Goering stepped in and was able to get him a certificate saying his father was actually his mother's uncle. So. Good for him?
 
War between Germany and Italy? Bye, Musso!
 
...and only two weeks after the declaration of the Croatian Republic, the Yugoslav Communist Party began a wave of terrorism, assassinating Italian advisors, setting fire to the city's post office, and blowing up a bus carrying some Utasha fighters.

I understand assassinations and blowing up a bus...but burning down a post office? What's the logic behind that?
 
I understand assassinations and blowing up a bus...but burning down a post office? What's the logic behind that?
If the Croatian postmen are anything like the ones in the UK then perhaps the Yugoslavs are just frustrated at the rubbish service.
 
Interesting developments in the Balkans...alas Bismarck's words are ignored again...

Tim

What may have well been true during his era is no longer valid in this geopolitical situation. And getting rid of an expansionist dictatorship next-door is a logical next step in German foreign policy. Not to mention all those poor folks in Südtirol suffering from Italian repression...