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What may have well been true during his era is no longer valid in this geopolitical situation. And getting rid of an expansionist dictatorship next-door is a logical next step in German foreign policy. Not to mention all those poor folks in Südtirol suffering from Italian repression...

Actually, the Sudtirol is probably getting treated pretty terribly in ATL, isn't it?

If the Croatian postmen are anything like the ones in the UK then perhaps the Yugoslavs are just frustrated at the rubbish service.

I don't know. I suppose it's because it's a government building, and no one cares about the Postman. Although who else is gonna rebuild society and give Kevin Costner a leading role?
I understand assassinations and blowing up a bus...but burning down a post office? What's the logic behind that?

War between Germany and Italy? Bye, Musso!

I mean, have you ever seen me actually have a war? Be serious.
 
They Have a Plan: French Africa and the Fourth Republic

"In irrigated terrain, there must be an average of two workers per hectare. Thus it is necessary to place in the Segou region 1,500,00 workers, or 3 million to 4 million individuals. Where will they come from? Where will they be recruited?"-Colonel Fernand Bernard, opponent of plans to irrigate the Niger Delta.​

With the Polish diktat, Italy's descent into chaos that would lead to the end of Fascist rule, and Britain's disentanglement from the continent, France found itself bordered by a more industrialized, more populous neighbor which had to a large extent secured its eastern front. There were those who worried that France's time as a great power was over. But La Rocque, Daladier, and other Frenchmen knew that France would not just, and would never be just [1] a European power. La Rocque can be criticized for much: but to the surprise of many, he was capable of making painful, far-reaching reforms that shape Africa to this day.

First, we have to disregard the notion that the 4th Republic was more or less assimilationist than its predecessors, or that it was somehow more "meritocratic." The simple truth was that it was an empire ruling, in French West Africa alone, some 5 million square kilometers and fifteen and a half million souls. It covered the Four Communes of Senegal[2] and villages huddling around oases in the Sahara. Now with that touching description of its variety, let's paint a broad picture with big strokes.

French West Africa was a predominantly rural society. Its largest city was Dakar, with a mere 92,000 souls; outside of Senegal, there was no town with a population above 25,000. There were only 20,000 Europeans across this vast terrain, and most of these were garrisoned in the major towns and cities. And the 4th Republic prepared to turn this into a base of support for the French Empire. The 4th Republic's presidential administration gave France's government stability it had longed lacked, and the new regime's support for technocratic bureaucrats for plans to reshape the map of Africa.

Since the 1870s, Frenchmen had proposed a Trans-Saharan railway, running from Algeria to Timbuktu on the banks of the Niger, to Dakar. [3] The benefits were obvious: it would link all of French West Africa together, provide a route from Algeria to bypass an Atlantic Ocean where Uboats might hunt convoys, and show the world the might of French power, illustrating that the 4th Republic could accomplish feats the chaotic 3rd Republic could not.

The ensuing project would take over five years, leave several thousand construction workers dead, and become a bit of a white elephant, as it remained easier to ship goods across the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the railway would play a crucial role in linking the peoples of French West Africa together, and the eventual formation of the West African Union. [4]

thetranssaharanrailwayb.jpg

Reality was less Glamorous than French propaganda portrayed

Far more important was the Niger Delta Program. Downstream of Bakamo lies the Inland Niger Delta, a territory the size of Belgium used for centuries by Bambara farmers to grow rice, millet, sorghum, and other crops. But to the French, the region seemed underpopulated, and after the First World War the French proposed a massive irrigation project to cover a million hectares with rice and cotton.

Given that Mali was underpopulated, the plan entailed moving 300,000 people to the region, and the French estimated it would take at least 25 years. In 1932 the Office due Niger (ODN) was created, but the project had stagnated. Through the use of compulsory labor [5], the ODN hoped to "drag the native from his miserable existence," and overcome the environmental constraints that Europeans believed kept Africans ignorant, malnourished, and strangely unwilling to construct irrigation systems designed to grow cotton for French industry. "But one day, when the waters of the Niger distribute through the irrigation arteries and onto their fields, ending the terrible famines of Africa, then 'the habits of whites' will make clear sense to the natives." [6]

However, mortality rates in the region were horrific, reaching 24 per 1,000 workers in 1934 due to inadequate food and medical care. Given said mortality rates, the colonists Belime thought would flock the region failed to come. In response, the ODN used a mix of the carrot (promising exemptions from corvee labor and taxes) and the stick (forcing village chiefs to provide families to settle in the region). Once there, settlers were forced to work exclusively on irrigation. [7] Slackers were denied food, medical treatment, and anything else. When the Popular Front took power, an investigation was made, but the Fourth Republic was born before anything could be done. Indeed, the Fourth Republic witnessed the intensification of the authoritarian impulses of the ODN. As a sign of Belime's growing influence, it is worth noting that he told students at the Ecole Supedrieure Coloniale that his success was due to "forced labor, an idea whose time had come." [8] Some reports reached France disagreeing; noting that the claylike soil of the Niger Delta was poorly suited to cotton, and that the region's yields were below estimates. But with the support of the Paris, the region became a vision of the modern, French West Africa. And at the ODN's urging, recruits were solicited from across French West Africa, bringing in people from across the empire to the Niger Delta.

Both the Niger Delta and the Trans-Saharan Railway are only examples of a comprehensive effort to reshape the region. There was also a plan to spend 18.4 billion francs funding industrialization in the region [9]. A small sum of money, but France's investment laid the groundwork for Senegal's textile industry, which would help the region's economy in the 1950s and 1960s. French administration for the region was also reorganized, combining all of the colonies into a single administrative unit run from Dakar. [10]

Finally, we must mention the role of the empire in the Fourth Republic's ideology. French Radio programs discussed the role of the Empire in the French economy, the French civilizing mission, and the exploits that gave birth to it. In the words of Robert Devalignette, spokesman for the colonial lobby, "there could be no empire without a conscious metropole." And so children went to schools where a quarter of the geography textbooks discussed the subjects of France; and learned about the role of Africans in the Great War, while the government organized tours to discuss exciting careers available in the colonies. This went hand in hand with propaganda in Africa, including radio broadcasts, comics, and broadsheets discussing the gloire of France.

frenchafrica.png

Children attending a travelling exhibit on French Africa

Yet French West Africa was only one of the regions France ruled. The Fourth Republic's policy in Algeria and Indochina would also have far-reaching implications.

[1] I hope people find this post interesting; I think we tend to ignore Africa in alternate history, and this is a modest attempt to redress that.

[2] The Four Communes were the oldest towns in French West Africa Saint-Louis, Dakar, Goree, and Rufisqu. These were communes which had representation in the French Parliament.

[3] This got as far as a Parliamentary Study and Report in 1928, and Vichy supported it (and laid a few miles before North Africa fell) as an effort to show how awesome they were. El Pip can rejoice at the construction of a train.

It occurs to me that somebody might suggest it would be easier, logistically, if the trains were atomic powered. This can only end well.

OTL's Vichy may have shown an increased use of forced labor compared to the Third Republic, but this is heavily debated and might have been due to wartime conditinos. There are some accounts that people preferred Vichy to Free France; the latter imposed heavier requisitions and drafted more labor, because it was more desperate.

[4] In OTL, Senegal and Mali actually hoped to form one nation, using the railroad as a unifying factor. It fell apart because Mali elected a Maoist, and richer Senegal elected a conservative Francophile. The Senegalians promptly kicked the Mali delegation back to Bamako.

And then tore up the tracks between the two countries.

[5] Implemented, I'll note, in the 1920s. It actually developed out of military recruitment drives. Please add "widespread use of corvee labor" to reasons I doubt European empires can last much longer than OTL.

[6] This is an OTL quote from Emile Bolime, head of the Office Du Niger.

[7] One notable example entailed farmers who were caught fishing after dark having their nets confiscated, because if they caught fish they would be less willing to work in the fields, or have their first year rations (since the settlers brought no food) cut. There's a reason the settlers were known
as tubabu jonw, or "slaves of the white person."

[8] Belime gave this speech in OTL in 1941. What's most creepy about this post is how much of it is OTL.

[9] In OTL, the Vichy government proposed spending 18 billion francs to industrialize French West Africa, with the goal of keeping some essential industry out of bombing range. In practice this didn't happen due to the war, but I think some effort would be made. This would have included textiles, and I don't think it's improbable for the West African textile industry to be focused on the Niger Delta's cotton.

[10] I think this fits well with the technocratic planning of the regime, with its emphasis on economic development, intercolonial movements of people, etc.

Thanks to Ed Thomas for letting me use his Trans-saharan railway poster.
 
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Even with the chance of enraging El Pip again :)D): The German postal service was better and provided more and better facilities when it was still nationalized.
 
Even with the chance of enraging El Pip again :)D): The German postal service was better and provided more and better facilities when it was still nationalized.
All else being equal a company that employs huge numbers of people and runs a massive loss will provide a better service than one that actually has to match costs and revenue. I imagine in Deutsche Post was allowed to run huge losses and was judged on quality not profit they'd run a far better service. ;)

On the trains can I please express my doubts at the Trans-Saharan railway being built at all, let alone in five years. Given the current 1970s era Trans-Saharan highway is still unpaved for most of the central section I would be very surprised if 1930s kit can actually do the job in anything like that time, even allowing for France working tens of thousands to death.

Still I support this scheme; the construction costs will be extortionate, the ongoing maintenance and security costs (all those Saharan nomadic tribes) will be worse and the thing will never work properly. All in all a perfect way to cripple France, and who could possibly object to that? :D
 
All else being equal a company that employs huge numbers of people and runs a massive loss will provide a better service than one that actually has to match costs and revenue. I imagine in Deutsche Post was allowed to run huge losses and was judged on quality not profit they'd run a far better service. ;)

Oh very true. Point is though, I'd rather give something of my taxes away than have my frail old granny thirty kms from the next post Office.
 
On the trains can I please express my doubts at the Trans-Saharan railway being built at all, let alone in five years. Given the current 1970s era Trans-Saharan highway is still unpaved for most of the central section I would be very surprised if 1930s kit can actually do the job in anything like that time, even allowing for France working tens of thousands to death.

I don't think technology's the issue. After all, we've built trains in the Outback, in Southern Africa, in the American West. The issue is whether or not it's economically viable. I'm not sure how they even planned to fuel the damn thing...
 
I don't think technology's the issue. After all, we've built trains in the Outback, in Southern Africa, in the American West. The issue is whether or not it's economically viable. I'm not sure how they even planned to fuel the damn thing...
Desolate deserts are not the all the same, the examples you list used fundamentally flat and solid land for the route, any dunes were comparatively thin if they even existed. The Sahara is not like that, some of the sand seas are hundreds of metres thick, not something you could put a heavy train on, or even a light one.

So I say that technology and engineering actually is the issue, though I suppose by ignoring those two areas you really are getting into the big government mindset. :D

On the other point why is it even a question, of course it isn't economically viable. How on earth could it be? Based on the Trans-Australian trains half the load will be water for the engines (not alot of water in the Sahara so no en-route pick ups). On the plus side there were some coal mines in Algeria, on the down side there weren't (and aren't) any in Senegal.

I'm therefore guessing the trains will have to carry all their fuel for the north bound journey on the southbound leg, doing that along with all the water they're carrying, doesn't leave much space for cargo. I suppose you could get ships carrying coal to drop some off in Dhaka, though at that point what is the point of the railway again?
 
French Africa, a place filled with what-if projects and political plans.

What about local educated population and collaborating old elite? I suppose their views upon this matter were left to a later update on purpose?
 
[1] I hope people find this post interesting; I think we tend to ignore Africa in alternate history, and this is a modest attempt to redress that.

I found the French West Africa post to be interesting.

I must confess: I am guilty of ignoring Africa in my alternate history storyline.
 
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On the other point why is it even a question, of course it isn't economically viable. How on earth could it be? Based on the Trans-Australian trains half the load will be water for the engines (not alot of water in the Sahara so no en-route pick ups). On the plus side there were some coal mines in Algeria, on the down side there weren't (and aren't) any in Senegal.

Why didn't the Aussies use condensers the way South Africa and the Soviet Union did?

Karelian said:
What about local educated population and collaborating old elite? I suppose their views upon this matter were left to a later update on purpose?

They are full of joy. The reason I didn't discuss them quite as much is that, well, nothing much has changed from OTL in how they are handled.

Van5 said:
Can we see how Austria has changed since it's inclusion in Germany and vice versa?

Hah. I actually have an idea for a piece about Germany's Swing Kids, and the Edelweiss Pirates. But there's just so much going on that returning to the culturally shocked Austria is a bit... awkward.
 
The Butterfly Effect

If you delight in senseless valor and make a display of violence, the world will in the end detest you and will look upon you as wild beasts. Of this you should take heed.-The Emperor Meiji, January 4, 1882

Now the flag of the Rising Sun is floating over Nanking, and the Imperial Way is shining forth in the area south of the Yangtze. The dawn of the renaissance of Eastern Asia is about to take place. On this occasion, it is my earnest hope that the 400 million people of China will reconsider.- General Iwane Matsui.​

I've been moderately unhappy with the fate of Japan thus far in the timeline, and having finally gotten some decent books on Japan I can put my finger on it. Quite simply, it ignores the influences and motivations for Japan's leaders, to turn them into Kilrathi. So what's wrong, and what is a more plausible outcome?

Let's turn to OTL 1936, after the suppression of the February 26 incident. Perversely, this was the time when what you could call the Total War Faction, led by Colonel Ishiwara, was at its height. Ishiwara, a Nichiren Buddhist who was responsible for the entire Manchurian Incident, was opposed to further expansion in East Asia. Ishiwara and his supporters were, quite simply, scared shitless by the USSR. In 1932, the Soviets had four rifle divisions in the Far East; in 1936, they had fourteen. To combat the Soviet Union, Japan needed to develop the resources of Manchuria and embark on crash industrialization program, mixed it with radical reform.[1]

But to develop and industrialize, Japan required peace, and so Ishiwara moved to smooth ties with China. As the head of the Army's Operation Seciton, Ishiwara was unique in welcoming the Xian incident and the end to the Chinese Civil War, on the grounds that a strong China would discourage reckless expansionism. He moved to replace Kwantung Army officers who were recklessly causing incidents, and replcaed them with men of his own.

But once you let army officers decide to start incidents at will, things have a habit of snowballing. [2] As Sino-Japanese relations worsened [3], all it took was for a few shots to be fired for the Marco Polo Bridge Incident to escalate [4]. But the Imperial Japanese Army believed it would take three divisions, three months, and a mere hundred million yen to solve the Marco Polo Incident. But then a Japanese Liteuenant, Oyoama Toshio was shot in Shanghai on August 9; the Navy demanded that the army send three divisions to Shanghai, and things escalated. [5] By the middle of August the Japanese government planned to field fifteen divisions for at least six months. The Japanese Diet also passed a series of laws to regulate the Japanese eoconomy: the Synthetic Oil Industry Law, the Gold Industry Law, the Iron and Steel Industry Law, the Trade and Regulated Industries Law, etc. Japan girded itself for a protracted struggle with an unclear goal.

Even as the nation girded for war, Japan's own military shortfalls became apparent. For one thing, the invasion of China had diverted over half of Japan's manpower from Manchuria, where the (perceived) main threat lie. Munition stocks were exhausted by early 1938.

Things were so desperate that Lieutenant General Hayao, the army's vice-chief of staff, warned that if the USSR entered the war the situation would be disastrous. In response to these warnings, the Japanese government declared that Chiang did not lead the legitimate Chinese government, and there would be no negotiation with him.

Anyway, to war requires more guns; more machine tools; more oil; more steel. To pay for this, Japan was forced to ship abroad its half its gold reserves in 1937 to pay for military equipment and fuel in 1937 alone. By June of 1938 factories were ordered to use 37% less fuel, and Japan's fishing fleet was to revert entirely to coal or wind power. Instead of modernizing, the Japanese economy was regressing; in the words of Ishii Itaro, head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asian Bureau, "an octopus eating its own tentacles."

Oh, and the Soviets were still there. The Changkufeng Incident of July, 1938 illustrated that the Japanese army could not take on the Red Army; a shortage of heavy artillery and antitank shells convinced the Japanese General Staff that withdrawal was necessary. This led to proposals for a "moderate" peace with China modelled on Bismarck's treaty with Austria in 1866, but since this moderate peace proposal entailed Chiang stepping down and Japanese hegemony in northern China, nothing came of it.


Japan's problem was that the were stuck in a quagmire without an exit strategy, and that Japan couldn't afford the war in the long run. The Japanese assault on Hainan was delayed form July of 1938 to 1939 due to a shipping shortage. Things were so bad that the Army Generla Staff sent its Chief of Staff before the emperor to warn that the diversion on the continent would result in Japan being outfought and outgunned by the other powers, who hadn't been bleeding themselves to death for... North Chinese cotton? [6]

In response to this report, Japan planned to suspend further offensives in China in 1939, and adjusted its economy policy. Instead of starving civilizan industries, the government invested in a substantially reduced version of Ishiwara's five-year plan, and cut the military's modernization program. This only meant that the plan to defend Manchuria and Korea against the Soviets fell further behind, and the General Staff's initial audacious plan to thrust towards Lake Baikal was replaced with a siege of Vladistovok. And now things diverge wildly from OTL.

It was around this point that the army proposed an alliance with Nazi Germany, to balance out the USSR's superiority in the Far East. But there's no chance of anything like this in the ATL. Khalkin Ghol is, if anything, overdetermined. The incident began in mid-May when Soviet-backed Mongolians fired on Manchukuoan troops, and the Army ordered a limited counterattack. The Soviets responded on June 18 with a counterattack, and things escalated until the Kwantung Army was fighting desperately against Zhukov, firing 15,000 shells a day even as they got slaughtered. [7] Although a peace treaty was signed, in the Stresemannverse Stalin is quite able and willing to send forces to the Soviet Far East, meaning that in addition to being woefully outclassed, by the middle of 1940 the Japanese in Manchuria were outnumbered. And to cap it all off, Japan's economic problems continued. One illustration of this: Japan produced less steel in 1939 than 1938, even though demand for steel had increased.

Okay, turning back: Japan did not immediately declare war on the allies in 1939. Despite the war in Europe, Japan did not move into Indochina until after France fell, and did not do so lightly. It also did not move against Britain and America until December of 1941, after the Germans had invaded and distracted the USSR. The previous incarnation of this TL positied the Japanese leaping south with an unoccupied USSR on their northern border. I have little faith in the Japanese High Command, but this strains even my credulity.

To be utterly frank, Japan is in a desperate position and should be looking for a way out. What would an exit strategy look like? And can anyone propose one without fanatics trying to kidnap the emperor?

[1] The plan called for doubling Japan's iron and steel production over five years, quadrupling machine tool production, and increasing oil output, among other things. It's the 1930s. Even the Cylons probably had a functional plan at the time.

[2] Which is why so much of the map was colored pink in the 19th century.

[3] The Japanese were not happy that China was arming itself to resist further Japanese encroachment; the Chinese were unhappy about further Japanese encroachment.

[4] Indeed, shortly faster the Marco Polo Bridge incident Ishiwara repeatedly tried to stop escalation. After shots were fired on July 7, word reached Tokyo of a local ceasefire and agreement in north China, and Ishiwara tried to suspend mobilization on July 10. Ultimately, Ishiwara declared that he would rather withdraw all forces north of the Great Wall than risk an immediate war with China.

[5] The navy also was angling for glory so that it could demand an increase in modernization and expansion of the Japanese naval air force.

[6] Honestly, the mind reels. "So, we can't beat China, and we will lose any modern war because we are pissing men and material away there. But we're gonna go attack America because the only hope to turn the tide against a Chinese warlord is pissing off the largest economy this planet has ever seen."

Okay, maybe the Kilrathi analogy makes sense.

[7] This was OTL.
 
Things were so desperate that Lieutenant General Hayao, the army's vice-chief of staff, warned that if the USSR entered the war the situation would be disastrous. In response to these warnings, the Japanese government declared that Chiang did not lead the legitimate Chinese government, and there would be no negotiation with him.

This just screams "shoot yourself in the foot".

It's almost as though the Japanese are intentionally going out of their way to screw themselves over.
 
At this pace FDR won't need to embargo them to f*** them.
 
Why didn't the Aussies use condensers the way South Africa and the Soviet Union did?
Trans-Australian Railway opened - 1917
Forced air turbine condensers first used on South African trains - 1953
Trans-Australian railway converted to routine use of diesel locos - 1951

No the Aussies did not use condensers to reduce water consumption. ;)

For the Japanese are we quite sure they wouldn't just declare war on the Soviets? Strip China to the minimum, gather the IJN and launch an amphibious strike at Vladivostok. Then cut the Trans-Siberian railway and destroy the pocketed Soviets when they run out of supplies, from this position of strength it is obvious the Soviets will surrender just like the inferior types they are.

An ambitious and risky plan that depends heavily on luck and the enemy surrendering and not fighting a long war where they can bring their massive superiority to bear? Sounds very familiar to me.
 
This just screams "shoot yourself in the foot".

It's almost as though the Japanese are intentionally going out of their way to screw themselves over.

I don't understand. Most of this is OTL, too!

However I must ask (as a HOI noob) did you make a mod or download a mod to play as a democratic Germany or did you just start a game and mess around with things?

Oh, I modded events and the initial scenario set up, but the original plan I had a long, long time ago has fallen by the way side. C'est la vie...


At this pace FDR won't need to embargo them to f*** them.

I actually debated tossing in earlier sanctions on Japan. Gahh.


For the Japanese are we quite sure they wouldn't just declare war on the Soviets? Strip China to the minimum, gather the IJN and launch an amphibious strike at Vladivostok. Then cut the Trans-Siberian railway and destroy the pocketed Soviets when they run out of supplies, from this position of strength it is obvious the Soviets will surrender just like the inferior types they are.

An ambitious and risky plan that depends heavily on luck and the enemy surrendering and not fighting a long war where they can bring their massive superiority to bear? Sounds very familiar to me.

The Japanese were always horrified of the Soviets, I don't know why. Perhaps because the two times they tried to probe north showed that Stalin had teeth and that the Samurai spirit doesn't stand up to Zhukov and tanks.
 
This timeline really puts them between the rock and a hard place. Historically the old method of supporting one Chinese faction against the others could have worked with more lenient occupation politics and increased support for Nanjing regime, while Chiang would be stubborn enough to focus on the CCP, thus stalemating the war. Here the Chinese are more unified. This actually reminds me of the Iran-Iraq War, as Japan might soon opt for defensive posture and simply dig in to what they hold, hoping that attrition will split the Chinese ranks while the Chinese counterattack and bleed.

Foreign governments sell weapons to Chinese to field test them and watch newsreels from the following carnage while eating popcorn?
 
This actually reminds me of the Iran-Iraq War, as Japan might soon opt for defensive posture and simply dig in to what they hold, hoping that attrition will split the Chinese ranks while the Chinese counterattack and bleed.

Foreign governments sell weapons to Chinese to field test them and watch newsreels from the following carnage while eating popcorn?

The problem I had with this is it doesn't meet Japan's strategic goals, which are to neutralize China and turn it into Mexico.