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Chapter Eighty-nine: Winter Wolves (1-19 January 1947)
Chapter Eighty-nine: Winter Wolves
(1-19 January 1947)


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Polish troops prepare another attack in the forests of Gomel, January 1947. The latest Polish propaganda campaign has christened them the ‘Winter Wolves’.

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The Second Phase Begins: 1-5 January

As the new year of 1947 began, after a month of Operacja Zimowa Burza (Operation Winter Storm) the Polish High Command had completed its first phase after heavy fighting across the front. The difficult winter conditions hampered both sides in terms of attrition, slowing down combat and movement, but still the Poles were happy enough with the progress made. They had stepping off points for the next phase of operations and had helped – along with other Allied efforts on this front and further east – to severely deplete the Soviets’ manpower reserves.

The purpose of the operation remained to break through and begin to roll up the Red Army through attrition to weaken their front-line units, disrupting set defences and then sweeping through any gaps that could be forced to encircle and destroy many of the enemy’s most experienced divisions.

To try to improve supply distribution, once the current infrastructure upgrade was finished in eastern Poland, construction priority went to building new rail lines and repairing damaged ones in the northern salient.

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At the front, in the southern sector a powerful new Polish attack began south of Vinnytsia early on New Years Day, with the best part of three corps attacking four Soviet divisions. Man-for-man, the Poles had the better of the fighting mainly due to superior weaponry, good night fighting gear and better leadership and tactics. The Soviet General Chuykov still being injured did nothing to help the defenders’ cause.

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Despite bitter weather, a tough battle would be won just under two days later, though Polish occupation was delayed until the night of 4 January after the Soviets rushed in reinforcements for a quick defence.

As that attack went in and the Soviets in Vinnytsia tried to counter-attack the Polish breakthrough to their north, spare Polish forces began advancing from the west and south into gaps that had appeared on the eastern approaches to the key town of Zhytomir, supporting C-Y operations in the area. It was hoped such operations could help rupture the enemy line severely enough to allow an advance all the way to Kiev: in other words, the southern pincer that had been envisaged before OZB began. A late arriving screen would be brushed aside west of Zhytomir early the following morning.

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At this stage, with air superiority over Belarus in the balance, the PAF began to switch a number of its fighter wings from interception to air superiority missions, a trend that would continue in the first half of January. It was estimated that the almost constant snow degraded the efficiency of air operations (for both sides) by 10%. Early on 1 January, both sides had thousands of aircraft operating in the skies of Belarus.

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By that evening, the PAF commanders received a report on estimated casualties on both sides since the Winter Offensive began. In recent days, the rate of loss of PAF fighters had increased, however this seemed to be the result of intense combat against Soviets tactical bombers and CAS, who were being knocked out of the sky in ever increasing numbers.

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Overall, since the start of the offensive, it was estimated the Poles had lost 178 aircraft to all causes, the 4thInt 291. For now, with good reserves and other Allies also chiming in, it was a rate of exchange the Poles could put up with. And a massive amount of enemy bombing sorties seemed to have been disrupted, which was crucial to the ground offensive.

Another excellent boost for the air war and its switch to superiority tactics came at that time with the adoption of improved offensive formation doctrine (the last advance available), giving a significant boost to the offensive operations of the Polish fighter arm.

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These changes (or blind luck) seemed to have worked very quickly, as the next day the Allies won back air superiority in the Belarus air zone. And a new fighter ace was promoted the following day, which would have boosted support for the war had it not already been at a bloodthirsty 100%!

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To complement the attacks in the south and in the hope of driving the Byelorussian SSR out of the war, early on the 3rd a new assault was launch towards Gomel by a corps of infantry and militia divisions to the east of the enemy’s provisional capital.

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The fighting would be hard and relatively even against entrenched enemy positions, with Polish experience, intel, night vision gear, commander skill and tactics evening up the tactical odds.

Meanwhile, in the south the Poles arrived west of Zhytomir on the evening of the 3rd and were straight away thrown in to support the Czechs, who had encountered two Soviet divisions sent to hurriedly plug the gap south of Zhytomir. Their intervention would see that battle won the following afternoon.

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On the Gomel front, a major defensive battle was finally won in the north on the evening of the 3rd, while the attack south-east of Bobruysk had run into some trouble by the morning of the 4th, though it would eventually end in a Polish victory that night, at some expense in the difficult battlefield conditions.

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While that was unfolding, the casualties in the air were mounting on both sides but the Polish-led Allied air forces retained the upper hand. The PAF now fielded the bulk of the Allied fighter force in the zone and it was decided the new Orzeł Mk1 jet fighters would get their first taste of battle: a wing of 72 was deployed. It would take them a few days yet to be operational for missions.

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Only seven Soviet divisions remained in the city of Vinnytsia itself by the morning of 5 January. They were assessed to be rather low on organisation (average 58%) and somewhat under-strength (average 88%). There would be no mass encirclement here as the previous concentration had spread out across the line. Up in Estonia, that evening the Allies were making a strong counter-attack on Narva, which had fallen to the Soviets in December.

The Czechs and Poles had occupied the south-eastern approaches to Zhytomir by that time and were facing a Soviet counter-attack. A spoiling attack was launched with six largely ‘second string’ formations (Lithuanian and militia formations and one armoured division); it would be called off three days later after fierce fighting after its purpose had been fulfilled.

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The first five days of the year had seen the Poles press the enemy hard, with some incremental gains made and air superiority being maintained. Nonetheless, it was clear much hard fighting remained ahead if a genuine breakthrough was to be forced.

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The Zhytomir-Vinnytsia Gap: 6-14 January

The Soviet defence of the key rail hub of Vinnytsia had been thinned sufficiently by 6 January for the Poles to throw 16 divisions against its trench lines in what would be another heavy but successful fight, with the Poles eventually defeating a last-minute blocking move on the evening of the 8th.

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As that fight began, six recovered mobile divisions (including three lighter Czech EFs) from 1st Army were shifted from depth to the north, into the ‘Zhytomir-Vinnytsia Gap’, ready for the next planned pincer operation, as both attacking and defensive battles raged to hold and expand recent gains there.

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The Polish AA inventory got a welcome update to its capability on 6 January – just at the right time. It coincided with the long drive to fully equip all main line divisions AA batteries was almost completed by now, despite the attrition of recent heavy fighting. With fuel reserves beginning to drain again, refining methods would again be improved.

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When those 1st Army reserves reached the Z-V gap on the evening of 8 January, they were hurled into the attack south-east of Zhytomir, while the ‘P-C-Y’ defence to their north continued.

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The Czechs and Yugoslavs had been particularly active of late, strong enough together across the front to allow the Poles to leave them to run entire sections of the front themselves, where they were often able to mount serious attacks of their own. This allowed ever greater Polish concentration in selected breakthrough areas in the north, centre and south.

More general Allied materiel assistance was also being offered, with new lend-lease offers of AT guns (now in deficit due to combat losses) accepted from Australia, Czechoslovakia, Denmark and British Malaya on the evening of the 8th. Another advantage of being in a large faction with good productive capacity – older surplus gear to help replace battlefield losses was better than nothing!

In the air, the Allies continued to prevail over Belarus, with Poland contributing half the fighter strength by the evening of 8 January. The 4thInt had temporarily almost abandoned the skies, giving comprehensive Allied air superiority for now.

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A closer analysis of air casualties to date showed the majority of Polish losses had been in air battles, while on the Soviet side more than half their bomber and CAS losses had actually come from AA fire. That pre-offensive AA investment seemed to have paid off handsomely!

Fighting around Gomel and Zhytomir-Vinnytsia continued through 9 January and by the morning of the 10th, the Poles were in position for a big assault by three full corps on the eight Soviet divisions defending the north-western approach to the city of Gomel, from four directions.

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The fighting would be hard and initial estimates by General Anders that ‘it will all be over in a day’ proved to be grossly optimistic and were soon revised. The balance would swing to the Soviets early on the 11th, then back to the Poles by midday. Nearly 10,000 men from both sides would fall before the enemy broke on the evening of the 13th.

In the southern sector, a full Polish corps south of Zhytomir was finally free to join the attack into the Z-V gap on the night of the 10th, leading to a victory on the early afternoon of the 11th, as fresh troops were rotated into the assault.

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Some moderately good news came from the Allied commanders in Estonia on 11 January with news that Narva had been reclaimed, Pskov taken and an offensive had pushed to the outskirts of Luga in the centre, though the Allies again seemed to be on the defensive.

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And the useful Anglo-French diversion in Archangelsk still soaked up at least three Soviet corps and seemed to be holding on solidly enough in the terribly cold conditions. This front would continue to remain largely static all month.

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After the victory in the Z-V gap, the light Czech cavalry and Polish militia advance guard divisions came under heavy Soviet counter-attack on the night of the 11th as more troops kept arriving.

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Four more divisions arrived by midnight, but still the Soviets pressed hard. Even though 11 Polish and 2 Czech divisions were in place by early on the 13th, the Soviets kept up the attack, desperate to repel this dangerous Allied incursion as the battle raged on.

The jet-equipped 14. Dywizjion Myśliwski joined the air war at 1900hr on 12 January in the air superiority role, though it would take some time to work up their mission efficiency (9.9% at first, including a 10% snow penalty).

As the fight for the Z-V gap continued, a Polish assault to its south was heavily reinforced on the morning of the 13th and there too the fighting would swing in favour of one side and then the other over the next day as the Soviets held on strongly.

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North-west of Gomel, by midday on the 14th the province had been taken though was under heavy counter-attack by eight Soviet divisions. To aid their defence, a spoiling attack had been launched from the north-east, though it was having problems making headway.

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While down in the Z-V gap there was heavy fighting to hold the initial breach (where it would take until 17 January and over 3,000 casualties for the victory) while a supporting attack to its south to try to widen the breakthrough would result in another six days of heavy fighting with even more casualties on both sides.

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A P-C-Y Effort: 14-19 January

It was at this point that the ever-helpful (and numerically significant) C-Y Allies launched yet another concerted offensive along the front in support of the main Polish effort.

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At this time, the C-Y armies on the Polish section of the Eastern Front had around 104 divisions between them and the Poles another 88, up against an estimated 159 Soviet and Byelorussian counterparts. The other main Western European Allies seemed to have focused their efforts in Turkey and the Middle East.

A Yugoslav division had joined in on the attack north-east of Gomel, but by the end of the 14th it was still running against the Allies; their comrades to the west were still being held up by the enemy counter-attack, so could not assist yet. C-Y attacks had also begun east of Mogilev, though all three were making limited headway.

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Things then hotted up in the northern Belarus sector around Vitebsk on 15 January. A powerful C-Y attack was in progress north-west of Vitebsk. And a Polish militia division was ordered to support another attack south-west of Vitebsk, which yielded a victory by the 17th. That battle showcased the greater impact of Allied air power on the Soviets, with a little over a third of their losses coming from air attacks.

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Six Polish divisions joined the battle north-west of Vitebsk as the C-Y attack ran into trouble, giving an initial boost. As had happened elsewhere, the balance swung to and fro over the next day, with the Allies back on top by the end of the 16th as the fight continued.

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And east of Mogilev, the most promising of the three C-Y attacks was reinforced by three Polish divisions, improving the odds (from 39 to 51%).

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A C-Y attack on the city of Zhytomir was also making progress (42%), despite only three Allied divisions assaulting seven Soviet divisions, though the odds had evened up by that evening. However, many of the P-C-Y attacks were going quite well.

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With field artillery now running short, Germany made a new (and potentially large) lend-lease offer of surplus 150mm guns. An inventory of equipment holdings showed battlefield damage (or the original AA shortfall) had resulted in deficits in AA, AT, artillery, light tank and light SP artillery. This effectively meant any new divisional recruitment was on hold, as the ancillary equipment needed to complete them would not be available.

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Heavy fighters were no longer being built, so that deficit would continue to climb as the aircraft type was phased out. The same went for CAS, though a few older models remained in stockpile, while older fighter models were still available to replace losses in the piston-engine fighter wings (also now discontinued). Tactical bomber reserves remained strong, while the jet fighter reserve was being built up (with the deployed wing being kept at 72 strong for now).

The 150 CAS based in Nowogródek now only had partial coverage of the front in Belarus, so were moved forward to the airfield in Gomel. This (plus the weather conditions) reduced their mission efficiency to just 6.8% initially and it would take time to recover as they settled in. The Allies retained air superiority in that zone, though over 1,000 4thInt fighters and 1,200 bombers had returned to contest the skies there.

The Zhytomir salient remained under enemy counter-attack, with a Polish militia and Czech EF tank division forced to withdraw on 16 January. Fighting continued on in the same vein for the next couple of days across the front.

Up in Gomel, the Allies had finally prevailed in the north-western approaches to the Byelorussian capital on 16 January and then in the north-east on the 18th after inflicting heavy casualties on the Soviet defenders.

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Early on the 19th they rushed to support a single-division Yugoslavian attack on Gomel itself, but were unable to fully reinforce before a heavy loss was suffered on the morning of 20 January.

Otherwise, by midday on 19 January, the P-C-Y forces were on the offensive on the Eastern Front and ahead in most of the battles that continued. In this phase of the offensive, some limited territorial gains had been made and the fighting had been tough, but in Belarus Allied air superiority was having a positive impact and the Poles believed the enemy defences were beginning to fray in Ukraine.

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To try to improve supply distribution, once the current infrastructure upgrade was finished in eastern Poland, construction priority went to building new rail lines and repairing damaged ones in the northern salient.
It's good foresight to start building these now. I think I mentioned it in an earlier chapter, but as you push into Russia, a level five railway from Warsaw to the front will eventually be a must.
While down in the Z-V gap there was heavy fighting to hold the initial breach (where it would take until 17 January and over 3,000 casualties for the victory) while a supporting attack to its south to try to widen the breakthrough would result in another six days of heavy fighting with even more casualties on both sides.
Only two more provinces to Zhytomyr's northeast to go! Then the Soviets will be trapped.
Six Polish divisions joined the battle north-west of Vitebsk as the C-Y attack ran into trouble, giving an initial boost. As had happened elsewhere, the balance swung to and fro over the next day, with the Allies back on top by the end of the 16th as the fight continued.
And east of Mogilev, the most promising of the three C-Y attacks was reinforced by three Polish divisions, improving the odds (from 39 to 51%).
Early on the 19th they rushed to support a single-division Yugoslavian attack on Gomel itself, but were unable to fully reinforce before a heavy loss was suffered on the morning of 20 January.
While attacks and victories like this are nice, given the equipment deficit, you might want to save your efforts for easier battles.
deficits in AA, AT, artillery, light tank and light SP artillery.
This will be a growing problem as the offensive continues. But every encirclement makes the next battle easier.

What's your factory count like at the moment? How many mils are on each equipment line? Do you think it could be worth disbanding/consolidating some divisions to help?
 
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The meat grinder seems just as effective in the air as it was on the ground, lots of men and material being chewed up but precious little progress either way. The winter weather seems to be really making a difference, or perhaps it is just being commented on more now? Given the aerial focus is this perhaps Air Marshall Winter coming to save the Soviets from the full consequences of the Allies winning air superiority?
 
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Interim feedback comments:
It's good foresight to start building these now. I think I mentioned it in an earlier chapter, but as you push into Russia, a level five railway from Warsaw to the front will eventually be a must.
We've found thus far that supply maintenance is crucial in difficult (or any) country and the main axes of the advance will need to be supported if the infra isn't there already. Especially during this hard winter fighting phase.
Only two more provinces to Zhytomyr's northeast to go! Then the Soviets will be trapped.
Huzzah! We'll keep pushing.
While attacks and victories like this are nice, given the equipment deficit, you might want to save your efforts for easier battles.
Yes, this is a factor, but also we assess the Soviets are suffering worse and are actually starting to run out of men (with their other fronts added in). For now, the push is to break them broadly so we can break through locally and hope some lend-lease helps out and then we can relent and rebuild perhaps if the breakthroughs come more freely and we don't need so many preparatory battles. Once going, my usual inclination is to keep driving and driving until the enemy breaks or we reach the end of our offensive tether but can still hold any gains. Of course, I may miscalculate ... ;) Not foreshadowing, I only play a month at a time, just self-awareness :D
This will be a growing problem as the offensive continues. But every encirclement makes the next battle easier.
We'll try our best through production and LL to keep enough to be battle-worthy and hope the enemy manpower and equipment losses are even heavier.
What's your factory count like at the moment? How many mils are on each equipment line? Do you think it could be worth disbanding/consolidating some divisions to help?
I'll do a review in the monthly summary chapter or a supplement. I'd rather keep what divisions I have for now as there's a hold on producing new ones even though there's plenty of manpower in reserve. But having consolidated the cavalry brigades into divisions previously, there could be potential for combining militia divisions into stronger formations if necessary, or disbanding some to feed into others: though they have less of that extra gear, so are probably easier to maintain or strengthen if I just add in foot infantry battalions (still enough men and infantry equipment for that).
The meat grinder seems just as effective in the air as it was on the ground, lots of men and material being chewed up but precious little progress either way.
My view is a bit more cautiously optimistic than that: we do need to grind them down first before we can then make the breakthroughs. That at least is the high command's current operational concept. The progress in the air has been better than I'd expected, with heavy enemy air losses (to fighters and AA) and far better Allied ground support than the Soviets have been getting, with Poland now often leading the air effort in Belarus but still usually maintaining air superiority.

On the ground, the Poles have the far greater manpower reserves, with the Soviets heavily engaged not just on the Polish Eastern Front (where the Czechs and Yugoslavians are providing great support) but also in the Middle East and Central Asia, plus the subsidiary Estonian and Archangel fronts. We're still seeing enough potential to keep going hard for now, rather than sinking slowly into the evening darkness.
The winter weather seems to be really making a difference, or perhaps it is just being commented on more now?
A bit of both, I have been keeping close tabs on it game-wise to assess the effects. Fro what I've seen, it largely affects both sides fairly evenly in terms of attrition being higher, but the pace (number of attacks per side) in combat being slowed down, so battles taking longer than they might in clear weather but the casualties mounting more slowly. The main issue for the offensive is I think both battle and movement pace being slowed somewhat, so just taking a bit longer to achieve the results. For now, I'm opting for patience and persistence with the aim of doing the hard work now to reap the benefits later (and helping the Allies to at least hold the enemy at bay and eventually counter-attack in Eurasia).
Given the aerial focus is this perhaps Air Marshall Winter coming to save the Soviets from the full consequences of the Allies winning air superiority?
A little, but I've been pretty pleased with the air war so far and it's being reflected in far higher Soviet ground casualties from Allied air support in the Belarus zone than vice versa. Yes, it all slows things down a bit there as well, but it affects both sides and I hope sets us up for more favourable conditions later.

Some days yet before the next chapter (which will deal with the rest of the world for the whole month), so plenty of time for more comments, questions etc. :)
 
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To try to improve supply distribution, once the current infrastructure upgrade was finished in eastern Poland, construction priority went to building new rail lines and repairing damaged ones in the northern salient.

A very important priority if the momentum of the offensive is to be maintained. So far, I think the supply situation is looking healthy enough. :)

Overall, since the start of the offensive, it was estimated the Poles had lost 178 aircraft to all causes, the 4thInt 291. For now, with good reserves and other Allies also chiming in, it was a rate of exchange the Poles could put up with.

The PAF now fielded the bulk of the Allied fighter force in the zone and it was decided the new Orzeł Mk1 jet fighters would get their first taste of battle: a wing of 72 was deployed.

The losses look sustainable for now but some formations will be eroded by attrition now production has been limited to just the jets and tactical bombers. Is there any intelligence on the number of aircraft the Soviets may have in reserve?

Here's hoping the new jet fighters prove to be worth the investment!

The Czechs and Yugoslavs had been particularly active of late, strong enough together across the front to allow the Poles to leave them to run entire sections of the front themselves, where they were often able to mount serious attacks of their own. This allowed ever greater Polish concentration in selected breakthrough areas in the north, centre and south.

This is very positive. I get the sense Poland (along with the Czechs and Yugoslavs) now enjoys a numerical advantage along this front. If you can keep the Soviets under pressure I am optimistic opportunities will arise and somewhere along the line they will break. :)

A closer analysis of air casualties to date showed the majority of Polish losses had been in air battles, while on the Soviet side more than half their bomber and CAS losses had actually come from AA fire. That pre-offensive AA investment seemed to have paid off handsomely!

Nice! Seems a clear vindication of the decision to invest in AA. :)

And the useful Anglo-French diversion in Archangelsk still soaked up at least three Soviet corps and seemed to be holding on solidly enough in the terribly cold conditions. This front would continue to remain largely static all month.

This has proven to be a very useful distraction and the renewed Allied progress in Estonia is perhaps another sign the Soviets are in difficulty?

That battle showcased the greater impact of Allied air power on the Soviets, with a little over a third of their losses coming from air attacks.

Very good news given the Soviets already have manpower issues.

An inventory of equipment holdings showed battlefield damage (or the original AA shortfall) had resulted in deficits in AA, AT, artillery, light tank and light SP artillery.

This isn't serious just yet but these deficits are certainly a concern. We want offensive operations to be sustainable (probably for a lengthy period) and this situation is only likely to get worse. As you said elsewhere, it is helpful to be a member of a large faction - Allied LL might just solve this problem for us!
 
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OK, next stop the Poles Apart universe, so the last of the comment feedback for the last chapter follows. Next, we will survey the war in the rest of the world for the whole month, before swinging back to the rest of the month on the critical Eastern Front in the final chapter for January 1947.
A very important priority if the momentum of the offensive is to be maintained. So far, I think the supply situation is looking healthy enough. :)
It was a lesson well-learned in China earlier in the war and while the terrain here isn't quite as rugged, the troop numbers are far greater.
The losses look sustainable for now but some formations will be eroded by attrition now production has been limited to just the jets and tactical bombers. Is there any intelligence on the number of aircraft the Soviets may have in reserve?

Here's hoping the new jet fighters prove to be worth the investment!
For now we're holding and the other Allies are contributing. I may have to tag over on previous saves at some point to better assess the full air casualties for the Soviets in Belarus, as I still can't tell from the figures the reports provide. The jets should hopefully perform well and we'll get more of an idea in the final month's chapter.
This is very positive. I get the sense Poland (along with the Czechs and Yugoslavs) now enjoys a numerical advantage along this front. If you can keep the Soviets under pressure I am optimistic opportunities will arise and somewhere along the line they will break. :)
I believe this is right, and we keep an eye on it (as best we can) along the way. This is the strategy: keep hacking away where it's feasible, keep them on the hop then look for the breaks to start getting some encirclements and break their whole defence on all theatres by draining their manpower reserves as well. Will be interested to see if the USR government tries to implement wider conscription laws in response. They haven't yet.
Nice! Seems a clear vindication of the decision to invest in AA. :)
Yes, it was a massive industrial effort to get there and was based on pure guesswork, but the AA does seems to be doing well. Even more important in Ukraine, where the Allied air cover is pretty patchy.
This has proven to be a very useful distraction and the renewed Allied progress in Estonia is perhaps another sign the Soviets are in difficulty?
I thought it was going to collapse at one point, but having a port and probably other diversions for the Soviets seem to have left it in play fairly comfortably for now. Estonia is often very stop-start, but again it's a nother useful diversion.
Very good news given the Soviets already have manpower issues.
It all helps - and it helps spare our ground troops in such tough winter conditions.
This isn't serious just yet but these deficits are certainly a concern. We want offensive operations to be sustainable (probably for a lengthy period) and this situation is only likely to get worse. As you said elsewhere, it is helpful to be a member of a large faction - Allied LL might just solve this problem for us!
It is a growing problem: I'm hoping LL helps out as it has before and we'll try to adjust the manufacturing base where we can. And hope it's even worse for the enemy, given their casualties.
 
Chapter Ninety: At the Edges (The Rest of the World - January 1947)
Chapter Ninety: At the Edges
(The Rest of the World - January 1947)

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Australian infantry assault US troops as they roll back the invasion of the Northern Territory, January 1947. [Something of an irony there!]

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Retrospective

As the year 1947 began with no clear end to the great global war in sight, some observers pondered the age-old question: “How did we end up like this?” What had begun in 1939 as essentially an Allied war against Fascism had then turned into a three-way tussle with the Communists in the Far East. The final defeat of the Fascists in December 1943 had seen the continuing war between the Old World (mainly European democracies) Allies against the emerging Asian Communist bloc, where China and Japan dominated.

This metric had changed abruptly on 11 June 1944 when – for reasons that were never entirely clear – the Democratic US President F.D. Roosevelt declared war on France, thus broadening the war against the whole Western Alliance. And over time, while the US never formally allied themselves with the Communist MAB, they collaborated closely in their common war against the Old European Order.

No matter how incongruous it appeared to most Western scholars, the conflict could perhaps now be seen (broadly at least) as the Old World against the New World. This picture resolved into its current form when Trotsky’s USR, the last of the neutral major powers, led their 4th International bloc with a declaration of war on Poland (and thus the Allies as a whole) on 29 October 1945, after a period of rapidly deteriorating relations.

Fourteen months later, both sides remained fairly evenly balanced in fielded military strength, with the US having recently founded their own TRA faction in the Americas. The Allies still had the edge in total industrial production, while China in particular meant the manpower base of the anti-Allied coalition were greater.

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The Americas

The war for Mexico that had begun in June 1944 was finally coming to an apparent imminent conclusion by January 1947. The US had done most of the fighting, recently aided by its TRA proxies, while the Mexican government they were fighting for was actually part of the MAB, which had also sent forces to assist with its liberation.

In northern Mexico, by 1 January the Polish Mexican Korps (five German EF divisions) was back-pedalling towards their proposed evacuation port on the west coast, fighting rear-guard actions as they withdrew under fire to fall back positions.

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Five days later, the line had been stabilised. To the north, Allied resistance continued as they too still held a port on the coast from which it was hoped the six remaining divisions might also be able to evacuate.

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On the night of 10 January, that Polish-commanded line still held, with a major defensive victory won at Durango (159 Allied, 2,220 enemy casualties). But the pressure continued to mount and by 19 January the Polish positions in the north and south of Durango were no longer tenable. Withdrawals were ordered, though it took until the 22nd for 198 and 340 Divisions to disengage after inflicting heavy casualties on the attackers.

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In the south of Mexico, the Allied position had collapsed. Some Allied troops were surrounded, most had withdrawn to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where they still held two ports and an airfield.

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One week later, the situation was similar, with essentially three centres of Allied resistance still holding: two on the west coast, one in Yucatan, under enemy attack but generally hanging on. It also appeared US forces had largely left the fighting to its TRA allies and MAB partners by this point.

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During the final week of January, the MAB and TRA peppered the Polish defensive perimeter – including the key port of Culiacán – with a series of attacks that were all defeated. However, the withdrawal under fire of 3. Gebirgs-Division from the town of Durango would continue, so they would be directly adjacent to their evacuation point.

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As the month ended, the remaining Allied pockets in Mexico had all been cut off from each other, as they sought to make the enemy fight on for as long as possible. Canada/Newfoundland held on as they had done for many months now, with neither side apparently that keen to wrap things up.

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Culiacán remained under periodic attack but still held strongly enough but in the south, 2. Pz-Div had come under strong attack and might soon need to fall back to the port. The time for a full PMK evacuation was approaching.

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The Middle East to China

In Iran, December 1946 had seen the evacuation of Kerman by the allies, including by the Polish 5 and 32 DPs. On 1 January, those divisions continued moving to the south-east as their colleagues continued to hold the line in combination with other Allied forces.

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The first of a series of Soviet attacks on the port of Bandar e’Abbas began on 4 January and was heavily defeated by the Allies, commanded by General de Gaulle, as the city of Kerman occupied by the Soviets. Attacks such as these were actually welcomed by the Allies, as all they did was burn away Soviet manpower for virtually no reward for the enemy or cost to the Allies.

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The situation in China continued its slow-motion train crash, with a number of British divisions at heightened risk of encirclement in the north-east end of the line while the Communists probed away at the centre of the salient.

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In the wider Turkey-ME area, the lines remained fairly static. Here, the UK and Germany were the main external contributors in Turkey and Kurdistan, plus the French in Iraq.

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The neck of the Sinkiang-Western China salient remained under intense Communist assault by 6 January but was still holding.

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In Iran, the Soviets began attacking north-east Kerman from around 10 January, however the Poles were able to inflict some very heavy defeats on the 11th (374 v 4,630 and 162 v 1,280 casualties, for example).

By 19 January, the latest Soviet offensive had made a little ground in eastern Turkey but was now being held in the favourable defensive terrain and the line was amply garrisoned.

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That offensive had been seen of by the 23rd, but in Western China-Sinkiang the Communist pressure was increasing, with the threat of an encirclement in the far north-east of the salient increasing. By this stage, Soviet reserve manpower was assessed to be no more than around 120,000. Nearly bottomed out given the high casualty rates they were encountering on all fronts.

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In eastern Turkey, 24 January saw the Allied line secure and a promising attempt in progress to regain some of the lost border territory.

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But in Western China, by the end of the month the feared pocketing had happened, with 10 Allied divisions of various nationalities encircled and doubtless now doomed, with others to their west also in danger.

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The Middle East and Central Asia remained in play, but the last vestiges of ‘old China’ were being steadily mopped up by both the 4thInt and MAB communist efforts. The next concern would be for the Raj, should the Allies not competently garrison the key passes – or the MAB launch amphibious attacks in India.

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=======​

South East Asia and the South West Pacific

By 5 January, the US landing in Sumatra had been contained, while the Allies had invaded Borneo in the west and north-east. East Java and Papua were stable and the Allies were counter-attacking the renewed US invasion of Northern Australia.

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The US in Northern Australia and had put six divisions ashore without any realistic hope of gaining port access. The Allies had similar numbers but were far stronger: the difference between having supply or not.

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The lines had stabilised for some time in Papua and there had been little recent action on either side.

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The same could be said of eastern Java.

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At sea large British fleet had made contact with five Japanese subs in the Straits of Malacca at this time. The subs were evading as the British pursued with around 55 escorts, a CA, six BB, three BC and four CV.

While the Japanese had again invaded Okinawa, failed to gain the port and were making a weak attack on Naha.

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By 11 January, the Sumatran beachhead was being counter-attacked, the Allies were making inroads in Borneo, had pushed the Americans into a corner in Northern Australia and were trying to counter-attack in Papua as well.

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And on 19 January the only remaining US presence in Northern Australia was an unknown number of units hiding in islands to the north.

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The US landings in Sumatra had been eliminated by that time. But new landings had been made in and around Batavia in western Java on the 24th, where another naval battle was being fought offshore.

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A detailed look at the participants showed a major action in progress, with large carrier contingents on both sides. The Allies had a large advantage in capital ships and escorts, though so far had lost three transports and three DDs. But the Japanese cruiser force had suffered some heavy damage from the heavy guns of the British, with the Haguro almost sunk and the Mogami heavily damaged.

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The Japanese carriers in Makassar had disengaged by midday on the 24th; a final battle result was not obtained.

To the north, the battle for Naha had almost been won by the exiled Manchurian division holding the Okinawan city by 27 January.

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Another naval battle in Makassar was tracked on 27 January, where the four Japanese carriers and their escorts had engaged British destroyers and transports, but most of the main British battle fleet was closing in as the Japanese once again sought to disengage.

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As at the afternoon of 27 January, the Allied invasion (liberation) of Borneo had gathered pace with a great many divisions ashore in two different locations.

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Meanwhile, by 1400hr on the 27th, a Japanese DD had been sunk, while three Italian transports and three more British DD had gone to the bottom. At 1700hr, a significant portion of the British contingent had joined the battle while the Japanese still tried to escape.

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The Allies had largely withdrawn from Northern Australia by 28 January but had failed to account for the US division hiding just offshore. Another response would be required.

The naval Battle of Makassar was almost over early on the 29th, with all but the enemy subs having evaded. While the port of Batavia had been occupied by the US earlier, it had just been successfully counter-attacked, while the last US beachhead looked ready to collapse.

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As the month ended, the Allies had joined their beachheads together in northern Borneo as more divisions seemed to be on their way.

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The status quo had been maintained in Papua, as the Allies returned to evict the Americans from Northern Australia.

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Overall, the developments in this theatre had been quite positive through January 1947.
 
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Some Allied troops were surrounded, most had withdrawn to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where they still held two ports and an airfield.
It also appeared US forces had largely left the fighting to its TRA allies and MAB partners by this point.
If the US is gone, it might be possible to hold some land in Mexico still. The Yucatan area looks promising with the chokepoint to the north of Guatemala.
The situation in China continued its slow-motion train crash, with a number of British divisions at heightened risk of encirclement in the north-east end of the line while the Communists probed away at the centre of the salient.
More men sent to the slaughter. And the PRC's advance doesn't look to be slowing.
while the Allies had invaded Borneo in the west and north-east.
But Southeast Asia seems to be one of the two places where the Allies are winning (the other being Eastern Europe). If they can still muster up invasions like the one in Borneo, then maybe there is still hope. The MAB probably has a good chunk of divisions on the island waiting to be destroyed.

Maybe the Poles in Iran could be of more use in Java, Sumatra, or Borneo?
 
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Thanks @jak7139 for the comments, I’ll respond in a while.

To All: It seems other comments have really started to dry up over the last few episodes: either it’s one of those slow periods on the forum (which do come along) or I’ve lost the interest of the readership just when I thought things were getting to one of the most crucial periods of the story.

Not sure if I should go slow(er) on things for a while in the hope that people catch up again (if that’s it) or keep plugging away (as I weigh up all the other time-absorbing rl stuff going on at the moment).
 
Thanks @jak7139 for the comments, I’ll respond in a while.

To All: It seems other comments have really started to dry up over the last few episodes: either it’s one of those slow periods on the forum (which do come along) or I’ve lost the interest of the readership just when I thought things were getting to one of the most crucial periods of the story.

Not sure if I should go slow(er) on things for a while in the hope that people catch up again (if that’s it) or keep plugging away (as I weigh up all the other time-absorbing rl stuff going on at the moment).
Just that I'm a bit busy now (4 assignments due tomorrow)
 
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In the south of Mexico, the Allied position had collapsed. Some Allied troops were surrounded, most had withdrawn to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where they still held two ports and an airfield.

The Yucatan Peninsula at least looks defensible, but I fear it may end up being a bigger distraction for the Allies than the MAB/TRA.

It also appeared US forces had largely left the fighting to its TRA allies and MAB partners by this point.

The disengagement of US forces from Mexico makes some sense with Mexico being a MAB member state. However, in the absence of any major land front, it continues to be a concern that we still don't know what the US is planning and/or doing!

Culiacán remained under periodic attack but still held strongly enough but in the south, 2. Pz-Div had come under strong attack and might soon need to fall back to the port. The time for a full PMK evacuation was approaching.

You possibly could continue to hold that position but I really don't think there's much point trying. The other Allied units are having to fend for themselves already. Best to get those divisions out of there while you can.

By 19 January, the latest Soviet offensive had made a little ground in eastern Turkey but was now being held in the favourable defensive terrain and the line was amply garrisoned.

If Turkey can't be defended, really all hope is lost!

By this stage, Soviet reserve manpower was assessed to be no more than around 120,000. Nearly bottomed out given the high casualty rates they were encountering on all fronts.

Time is running out for the Soviets. Either they can extend their draft or they can't, and if they can't the 4INT is toast. :D

But in Western China, by the end of the month the feared pocketing had happened, with 10 Allied divisions of various nationalities encircled and doubtless now doomed, with others to their west also in danger.

The next concern would be for the Raj, should the Allies not competently garrison the key passes – or the MAB launch amphibious attacks in India.

This is all very bad news from China. We've already had a "premonition" about the MAB invading the Raj, so I think we have to take this one seriously. Probably nothing Poland can do about it though! :eek:

The US in Northern Australia and had put six divisions ashore without any realistic hope of gaining port access. The Allies had similar numbers but were far stronger: the difference between having supply or not.

This has to have been one of the most stupid moves any AI has made in the game - I hope that last US division can be mopped up quickly.

A detailed look at the participants showed a major action in progress, with large carrier contingents on both sides. The Allies had a large advantage in capital ships and escorts, though so far had lost three transports and three DDs. But the Japanese cruiser force had suffered some heavy damage from the heavy guns of the British, with the Haguro almost sunk and the Mogami heavily damaged.

At first glance the IJN seems to trying its best to avoid these fleet actions so you would presume the RN to be on top... but I couldn't help noticing it was British ships that were being sunk!

As at the afternoon of 27 January, the Allied invasion (liberation) of Borneo had gathered pace with a great many divisions ashore in two different locations.

This has been a good theatre for the Allies this month and the invasion of Borneo is a pretty big operation. It is good to see the Allies are able to mount a counter-offensive on this scale, but it comes at time when they're on the defensive in the Middle East and losing quite badly in China. I'm not convinced it was a wise choice.
 
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To All: It seems other comments have really started to dry up over the last few episodes: either it’s one of those slow periods on the forum (which do come along) or I’ve lost the interest of the readership just when I thought things were getting to one of the most crucial periods of the story.
I think Fall/Winter is generally busier for people due to school and other things. There have been less comments on most of the AARs I'm following, not just this one.
 
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I think Fall/Winter is generally busier for people due to school and other things. There have been less comments on most of the AARs I'm following, not just this one.
Thanks, must be one of those northern hemisphere things! :D
 
I've been very distracted by various domestic and work things so my AAR reading had to be paused, still caught up now.

On the comments I wonder if you are suffering from Wraith Syndrome. That is putting so much detail in the Chapter that there is not much left for the reader to comment or speculate on.

As an example it's been clear North America is going to fall for the last few chapters and the speculation on where the AI might send the freed up forces has been done, all that is left is waiting for the inevitable and then seeing what happens. The withdrawal of the PMK is being done well, but until that evacuation is done what more is there to say?
 
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I think my reading of this AAR, and many others has been like the war in Canada here: moving very slowly. But finally, I have caught up!

Thanks for the synopsis at the beginning of this chapter. That helped reset the stage for me, and I think that is very helpful if new readers happen to find this AAR so they can sample from the latest chapter before heading back to get more context.

If the US is gone....
The disengagement of US forces from Mexico makes some sense with Mexico being a MAB member state. However, in the absence of any major land front, it continues to be a concern that we still don't know what the US is planning and/or doing!
Not sure when the timeline will end for you in this version of the game, but this seems to be the major mystery at the moment. Sure, the U.S. invasion of Australia was wrong-headed. Was it just a clumsy feint though?

Where the U.S. commits next may decide the game (but not if it is so poorly executed as the Australian gambit). And then there's the Chinese....

I did find the naval clash between the U.K. and Japan interesting. Are the Japanese carriers just under-powered? And is the Royal Navy that overwhelming to chase them away that easily? How did the Royal Navy get so big in the Pacific and where's the U.S. Navy in all this?
Not sure if I should go slow(er) on things for a while in the hope that people catch up again (if that’s it) or keep plugging away (as I weigh up all the other time-absorbing rl stuff going on at the moment).
I think Fall/Winter is generally busier for people due to school and other things. There have been less comments on most of the AARs I'm following, not just this one.
As someone returning to the forum from a lot of real life demands (much like you @Bullfilter ) I have often selfishly wished folks would post less so I could catch up! Usually, once I catch up with an AAR it is fairly easy to stay up with it again, as long as life outside the forum leaves me alone.

Whether it is a fall/winter (northern hemisphere) issue or spring/summer (southern hemisphere) issue, my sense is that all of AARland has been slowing down quite a bit since March or April of this year. I think commenting and readership numbers are down in a lot of spots. However, some AARs do still manage to get a lot of buzz. I haven't figured out the dynamics yet. I will just say it is difficult to keep an AAR afloat (and you have a handful of them!) when real life calls, and it is also difficult to maintain reader involvement when your focus, as the author, is elsewhere.

Some of your silent readers are still here, just reading fast to try to catch up. Good luck to you with your moving and unpacking while also keeping these AARs fresh.
 
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When will be the next update?

The term finally ends (with abysmal grades for me) so I finally have some time left. Come on with the good work
I’ve just started to resume my AARs after the big move. EU4 done, working on CK2 now, this one next. Busy week ahead (sport) but hope to get going on this again before Christmas. Images are already edited so it won’t take long once I get to it.

Hope you enjoy your break and next term is more successful!
 
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I hope this interlude while RL business was dealt with has allowed those wishing to to catch up and I now hope to resume a more regular schedule, though it won't be too frenetic for a while yet with the holiday season, sport and continuing apartment-settling in to be navigated! All good things, but they do take time.

Anyway, thanks for your patience and support. On now to the comments on the last chapter I hadn't yet responded to:
If the US is gone, it might be possible to hold some land in Mexico still. The Yucatan area looks promising with the chokepoint to the north of Guatemala.
This is the thought, though I think (as in Indochina) that I'll leave that up to the rest of the Allies to manage. I like the idea of the German EF corps being used elsewhere now.
More men sent to the slaughter. And the PRC's advance doesn't look to be slowing.
A real meatgrinder. One we're happy to be out of. Unless/until they make their way through Sinkiang and/or the Raj. :eek:
But Southeast Asia seems to be one of the two places where the Allies are winning (the other being Eastern Europe). If they can still muster up invasions like the one in Borneo, then maybe there is still hope. The MAB probably has a good chunk of divisions on the island waiting to be destroyed.

Maybe the Poles in Iran could be of more use in Java, Sumatra, or Borneo?
An interesting thought. I think Iran or Iraq (where we also have a few troops now) might be the go. Might leave SEA to the other Allies. It is a long way off and they have plenty of troops there it seems. A larger force in Iraq might be able to make a meaningful contribution if attrition on the Soviets allows a counter-offensive to re-link Iran.
The Yucatan Peninsula at least looks defensible, but I fear it may end up being a bigger distraction for the Allies than the MAB/TRA.
Quite possibly. Though they do seem to be scaling right back: it may end up a bit like Guyana was for all that time and focus the TRA on what is not becoming a strategic backwater.
The disengagement of US forces from Mexico makes some sense with Mexico being a MAB member state. However, in the absence of any major land front, it continues to be a concern that we still don't know what the US is planning and/or doing!
Yes, it is a bit of a mystery - and one I've resisted solving by a cheeky tag. Perhaps Asia and Australia?
You possibly could continue to hold that position but I really don't think there's much point trying. The other Allied units are having to fend for themselves already. Best to get those divisions out of there while you can.
No, we're abandoning the ship before it sinks - already listing heavily to port!
If Turkey can't be defended, really all hope is lost!
True. I think it will be pretty secure, especially if our efforts on the Eastern Front start to undermine Soviet manpower at their various fronts across the board.
Time is running out for the Soviets. Either they can extend their draft or they can't, and if they can't the 4INT is toast. :D
Getting the toaster all primed :D Doubt it will be easy, though, and who knows what the MAB and TRA will get up to in the meantime!
This is all very bad news from China. We've already had a "premonition" about the MAB invading the Raj, so I think we have to take this one seriously. Probably nothing Poland can do about it though! :eek:
While we could send some mountain troops to the two choke points, I suspect it would take more than that and it would weaken Iran - and make our men even more exposed to stranding. The Allies will need to look after themselves there.
This has to have been one of the most stupid moves any AI has made in the game - I hope that last US division can be mopped up quickly.
Yes, the AI had reinforced defeat with more foolishness, Fortunately for game balance, the Allied AI has often been just as brilliant! :D:rolleyes:
At first glance the IJN seems to trying its best to avoid these fleet actions so you would presume the RN to be on top... but I couldn't help noticing it was British ships that were being sunk!
Yes, I'd thought the Brits might have done a bit more damage than that, the the RJN (noting they are all Commie swine these days ;)) seems to be good at evading while damaged but not yet sunk.
This has been a good theatre for the Allies this month and the invasion of Borneo is a pretty big operation. It is good to see the Allies are able to mount a counter-offensive on this scale, but it comes at time when they're on the defensive in the Middle East and losing quite badly in China. I'm not convinced it was a wise choice.
It has - I've been pleasantly surprised. Once more, this war pleases with its AI ebb and flow and quite often closely balanced campaigns.
I've been very distracted by various domestic and work things so my AAR reading had to be paused, still caught up now.

On the comments I wonder if you are suffering from Wraith Syndrome. That is putting so much detail in the Chapter that there is not much left for the reader to comment or speculate on.

As an example it's been clear North America is going to fall for the last few chapters and the speculation on where the AI might send the freed up forces has been done, all that is left is waiting for the inevitable and then seeing what happens. The withdrawal of the PMK is being done well, but until that evacuation is done what more is there to say?
Same here - and thanks for catching up. I've certainly not swamped you with updates since!

It could be that detail thing, and if so I'm happy enough to live with that. Just to know there is still the odd reader out there and comments where something is worth saying is fine with me.
I think my reading of this AAR, and many others has been like the war in Canada here: moving very slowly. But finally, I have caught up!
Thanks very much! The pace has slowed down a bit of late and though resuming, hopefully there will be plenty of time to keep current (RL notwithstanding).
Thanks for the synopsis at the beginning of this chapter. That helped reset the stage for me, and I think that is very helpful if new readers happen to find this AAR so they can sample from the latest chapter before heading back to get more context.
Appreciate the feedback. :)
Not sure when the timeline will end for you in this version of the game, but this seems to be the major mystery at the moment. Sure, the U.S. invasion of Australia was wrong-headed. Was it just a clumsy feint though?

Where the U.S. commits next may decide the game (but not if it is so poorly executed as the Australian gambit). And then there's the Chinese....

I did find the naval clash between the U.K. and Japan interesting. Are the Japanese carriers just under-powered? And is the Royal Navy that overwhelming to chase them away that easily? How did the Royal Navy get so big in the Pacific and where's the U.S. Navy in all this?
The US remains the real wild card. Without them I think the Communists would be getting whupped by now. Not sure about the naval questions - I'm no expert there. But those carriers are now pretty old coming into 1947 and they lost a lot of their surface fleet in the revolution. US navy has been around, but more subs I think.
As someone returning to the forum from a lot of real life demands (much like you @Bullfilter ) I have often selfishly wished folks would post less so I could catch up! Usually, once I catch up with an AAR it is fairly easy to stay up with it again, as long as life outside the forum leaves me alone.
Your wish has been granted! :D
Whether it is a fall/winter (northern hemisphere) issue or spring/summer (southern hemisphere) issue, my sense is that all of AARland has been slowing down quite a bit since March or April of this year. I think commenting and readership numbers are down in a lot of spots. However, some AARs do still manage to get a lot of buzz. I haven't figured out the dynamics yet. I will just say it is difficult to keep an AAR afloat (and you have a handful of them!) when real life calls, and it is also difficult to maintain reader involvement when your focus, as the author, is elsewhere.

Some of your silent readers are still here, just reading fast to try to catch up. Good luck to you with your moving and unpacking while also keeping these AARs fresh.
Thanks for the encouragement.

To all: next chapter out later today I hope: but first, I have to play a cricket match with a max of 34c predicted. Pretty standard for this time of year, but it may sap my energy reserves a bit! I could be getting to old for this - that will make two cricket matches and three rounds of golf in 8 summer days! :eek:o_O:D
 
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Chapter Ninety-one: To the Dnieper (20-31 January 1947)
Chapter Ninety-one: To the Dnieper
(20-31 January 1947)


PJOgMX.jpg

Polish infantry on the offensive near Grodno, 20 January 1947. [Image from Leonardo AI adapted from an RL reference image]

=======​

Two Prongs: 20-24 January

By 20 January 1947, the Polish Army, assisted by Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, was still trying to generate the full breakthrough it sought on the Eastern Front. Of the envisaged two pincers of the second phase of the 1946/47 winter offensive, heavy fighting in Belarus saw a grinding advance on Gomel encountering fierce 4thInt resistance that had been yielding gradually in the past few weeks.

The southern pincer was beginning to make ground to the south of Zhytomyr as Poland’s mobile forces concentrated their efforts on breaking through to Kiev. If the two prongs of this movement could meet, it may be possible to complete another large encirclement of Soviet forces. This in turn might lead to a genuine and widespread break in the Soviet line that the Poles hoped would begin to turn the tide of the war in Eastern Europe and perhaps in the Allies’ favour more widely.

On the morning of 20 January, a new attack on Gomel was launched from two directions by three full corps (all bar one division Polish) against just four defending Soviet divisions in the Byelorussian SSR’s provisional capital.

HgmrzM.jpg

This time, the Poles would not be denied and a tough battle through the streets of Gomel would end in Polish victory just under three days later.

The existing secondary offensive in northern Belarus, west of Vitebsk, led to a very destructive battle and difficult victory for the ‘P-C-Y’ attackers on the afternoon of the 20th. To the south, C-Y forces were simultaneously pressing on towards Vitebsk, where they seemed to be making fair progress.

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In the air over Belarus the Polish Air Force continued to receive good support from its Allies in the ground support roles but the PAF was bearing the brunt of the fighter commitment. Two Polish CAS wings had to push forward to a new air base in Gomel province as they fell out of range with the advancing front line. The snow, lack of supply and negligible mission readiness would inhibit their efficiency for some time to come.

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With thousands of aircraft currently deployed in the Belarus air zone, enemy bomber casualties were mounting rapidly and many of their bombing sorties had been disrupted – at an increasing but sustainable cost in fighters lost. In recent days, out of 24.47k Polish ground casualties, only 821 troops had been lost to enemy air attacks.

Yugoslavia, striking out in tandem with the Czechs, to the city of Zhytomyr on the evening of 21 January as the Polish motorised formations advanced on a two-province front to its south, aiming for Kiev, then three provinces distant.

Meanwhile, in northern Gomel state, a first battle to expand north brought a very expensive victory at midday on the 20th but a second failed two days later as the Soviets rushed in reserves and an enemy counter-attack north of the Gomel airfield was proving difficult to stop.

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On the road to Kiev, the 22nd saw the C-Y forces pushing ahead east from Zhytomyr, while south of that the Poles took and then held ground from 20-22 January.

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And east of Vinnytsia, while an initial probe was fought off by the Soviets at 1700hr, a second more powerful attack under way an hour later, despite some disorganisation and low supplies among the attackers.

On the research front, engineer companies were further improved on 23 January, with equipment conversion engineering being the next project.

8VqVUN.jpg

The air war over Belarus raged on, with an analysis by the PAF highlighting the leading fighter models fielded by each side. 14 DM was the elite Polish jet fighter wing, boasting the highest speed, range and air defence stats. The mainstay Pustułka Mk1 had better agility and air attack, while the Soviet Yak-3 B2 used the fewest supplies and was the most reliable air frame.

WmGzMW.jpg

At that point, the 4thInt was flooding the air zone with a lot of fighters but the Allies seemed to be holding on well enough. Indeed, that morning another Polish fighter ace was promoted: Tomasz ‘Lightning’ Kwiatkowski.

Later that morning, the Poles arrived in sufficient force to augment the existing C-Y attack east of Zhytomyr that had been flagging by 0800hr. This injection of troops first balanced the odds then, by 1500hr, swung the battle in the Allies’ favour.

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The northern pincer closing in on Gomel had to fight three more skirmishes against late-arriving Soviet reinforcements during 23-24 January as the enemy desperately tried to hang onto the key city.

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Long Polish experience in Western China and more recently on the Eastern Front had ingrained the importance of logistics, especially when attempting to maintain offensive momentum involving large forces operating in difficult terrain and weather conditions. More rail upgrades were commenced in central Belarus on the 24th as the massed units at the front struggled for sufficient supplies.

bfexwP.jpg

The latest attack east of Vinnytsia failed on the morning of 24 January after its promising start two days earlier. But fresh units had again moved up to the front and the next push with eight well-organised divisions – three fielding heavy infantry-support tanks – would succeed against the tiring opposition the following morning.

SaZqy3.jpg

As that attack was playing out, more rested and resupplied divisions were brought up from the rear echelon to reinforce the front line and drive the sought-after breakthrough to Kiev.

4hCmGm.jpg


=======​

A Tale of Two Cities: 24-31 January

Gomel was occupied at 2100hr on 24 January but it was not quite enough to force the Byelorussian SSR to capitulate: they would make a final stand in Vitebsk, where a secondary P-C-Y offensive was slowly inching forward.

NcmAOm.jpg

The first of the intermediate objectives was now in Allied hands; the second, Kiev, was in their sights.

And now Vitebsk was added to the list of intermediate objectives as its capture should force the Byelorussian communist government into exile and remove the first country from the ranks of the 4th International. As 24 January was ending, the C-Y offensive to approach its western outskirts was given a large influx of Polish forces.

pgd0ZB.jpg

The Soviets broke within an hour of the intervention.

Having taken Gomel, seven most organised Polish divisions attempted to continue the advance east to maintain momentum. It would take just over four days of fighting to dislodge the two well-rested and supplied Soviet defending divisions, but a good victory would be won by early on the 29th.

jc99lq.jpg

As ever, while the attack continued the construction engineers were following up the advance as best they could, working on an upgrade of the rudimentary Mogilev-Gomel line to carry supply to the newly acquired supply hub at tip of the spear.

A8DCv0.jpg

The wider supply picture was fair, given the conditions and high concentration of troops on the front line. Behind that, logistics support seemed to be quite effective.

Pu4OiQ.jpg

A crucial day in the winter offensive concluded with the High Command guardedly optimistic about prospects in the coming days: perhaps a long period of softening up may start to pay some dividends if the momentum could be maintained.

The battle to push east of Vinnytsia had been won and the ground occupied by the night of 25 January and the augmented push from Zhytomyr to Kiev would also end in a victory by the following morning. This aimed to expand the front of the pincer to the south to see if larger breakthrough could be achieved.

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It took a couple of days to move sufficient fresh (enough) forces into the breach but by the early hours of 27 January the next major thrust towards Kiev was launched. The Polish mechanised forces leading the northernmost attack had moved to within two provinces of Kiev and were under Soviet counter-attack, which in turn was spoiled by the latest major attack which gathered momentum as the day wore on. A conclusive victory would be won early on the 28th.

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In northern Belarus, the P-C-Y drive to Vitebsk had closed in to its western edge on the evening of the 27th. While the first three divisions to arrive were quickly counter-attacked, their comrades were on the way. The gain would eventually be held after a defensive battle that would last for another two days.

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Another Polish fighter ace, Marcin ‘Handsome’ Szymański, was promoted late on the 27th as the Poles continued to fiercely contest the skies over Belarus.

In Ukraine, as the main pincer closed in on Kiev, the latest attack south of Vinnytsia, being conducted by four C-Y divisions, was reinforced by five of Poland’s rested and resupplied ‘leg’ infantry on the afternoon of the 28th.

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This aimed to use the C-Y efforts to create multiple weak points and perhaps overwhelm the whole Soviet defence in the south. An easy victory was won by the evening of the 30th.

With another gain south-west of Kiev very early on the 29th, the drive on Kiev gathered pace. More important than the symbolic value of the city was the potential to encircle many enemy divisions still engaged with C-Y forces, strung out to the west.

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By the evening of 30 January more Polish formations had pushed forward into the newly secured south-western approach to Kiev while the attack to its north-west was heavily reinforced and would be won by the afternoon of the 31st. And C-Y troops were already pressing towards Kiev.

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That latter attack was also reinforced once more Polish troops were ready: a massive augmentation of another 14 divisions, mainly infantry to be used for the main assault on Kiev once its approaches had been secured.

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And at midday on the 31st, yet another Polish ace was recognised as Paweł ‘Sunshine’ Piotrowski took command of his fighter wing. And the Allied air forces continued to ensure that ground combat losses to enemy bombers was kept minimal: 1,716 out of 38,100 in the last month.

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Eastern Front Monthly Summary: January 1947

As the month ended, most of Belarus had been liberated and significant gains made in western Ukraine. Many attacks (mostly ‘in the red’) were being made by the C-Y forces, with Polish efforts more concentrated as they tried to take Vitebsk and extend the pincer movements from Gomel and to Kiev.

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Pink-shaded areas indicate ground captured since the start of January.

In the air, an intense month of combat over Belarus ended with a strong Allied superiority in numbers (though these do fluctuate a lot day to day) and significantly heavier total 4thInt aircraft losses in the last month and overall since the offensive began in December.

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Enemy bombers had been brought down in great numbers and thousands of their sorties disrupted. PAF fighter losses had mounted, but as far as could be ascertained the bulk of these were in older models.

Little (if anything) had changed in Archangelsk in the last month and both sides hunkered down in the bitter Arctic cold.

Some ground had been made by the Allies in Estonia, though the bulk of the multi-national Allied force still held back in reserve (some seemingly only recently arrived and regaining organisation).

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Around Vitebsk, C-Y troops were still making most of the running, as the largely militia-composed Polish divisions positioned themselves for a renewed offensive towards the last Byelorussian SSR stronghold, having closed up to its western outskirts.

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In the Gomel sector, C-Y divisions were making broad-front attacks, while Polish efforts were more concentrated north-east of Gomel, as divisions were reconstituted and (hopefully) resupplied after the recent heavy fighting and weak points explored for the next attempted breakthrough.

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To the south, the Polish motorised spearhead had just occupied the north-western approach to Kiev as the attack on its south-west sought to gain a workable front to attack the city itself. The next objective after that was to force a crossing of the Dnieper River and then drive one arm of the pincer north towards Chernigov with the aim of linking up with the Gomel salient and cutting off as many enemy divisions as possible.

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Apart from showing the difficult state of resupply in the crowded breakthrough zones, the logistics map below also outlines the state of the pincer operation and the narrowing 4thInt salient south of Mozyr it is seeking to cut off.

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On the production front, this detailed graphic shows where surpluses and deficits of major equipment stood as January ended. Items highlighted in orange were not currently being produced. Notably, older model fighter and CAS reserves had still not been exhausted, while jet fighters and bombers were also in surplus against the current wing establishments.

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Increasing deficits (though combat and attrition losses) continued in AT and field artillery guns, while the AA gun deficit had been almost completely removed – and the effects on enemy bombers since its wide introduction to Polish main line infantry divisions had been pronounced during the current offensive. Light tank and SP artillery numbers also lagged, despite ramped up production lines. It was hoped lend lease support (existing and new) from a wide range of Allies might help to address these deficits.

A survey of these equipment types currently in service with the Polish Army showed how much indigenous and imported equipment was already deployed and which of the various Polish models constituted the largest proportion of the indigenous components.

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Of note was significant German and Czech support in field artillery. The Germans were also the largest contributor of AA guns, but the vast majority had been locally produced. The vast majority of Polish AT guns were of the latest model, while the old 7TP Mk1 light tanks still outnumbered the newer 9TPs. The multitude of field artillery models from lend-lease contributions was dizzying, though most of the Polish guns were now of the latest model (the Armata 155mm wz. 40).

The overall casualty count for January 1947 was also instructive. With the increased tempo of attacks in the atrocious mid-winter conditions, Poland had lost around 38,000 troops during the month (the largest monthly loss to date in the war) and had killed around 80,800 Soviet troops in combat (including in Iran), out of a total of 310,000 Soviet losses on all fronts.

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A Polish soldier takes a moment’s rest as his unit prepares for the next attack near Kiev, 31 January 1947. In his heart, he knows this war will drag on perhaps for years more – and that his chances of surviving it are dicey at best. But he also knows he must do his duty … and he will. Chwała Polsce! [Image from Leonardo AI, from scratch by prompt]

Polish manpower reserves were holding up strongly, with recruitment of new divisions effectively halted by the lack of ancillary equipment (eg artillery, AT, AA, light tanks etc). By contrast, intelligence estimates indicated the Soviets had almost exhausted their manpower reserves and should soon be unable to replace all their combat losses unless they changed their recruiting laws.

Total losses for both sides of the Allies-Communist-US/TRA conflict so far were now almost exactly even with over 32 million military casualties to date – a horrendous toll which was only going to increase, with no early end in sight. Estimates also indicated the Allies retained a numerical advantage in fielded manpower, as well as in industrial capacity. It just needed to start reflecting this on the ground, which so far was proving far more difficult than expected. Poland aimed to be part of that turn-around in battlefield fortunes.
 
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Boost your trains and trucks. Actually invading Russia is going to be a logistical nightmare even if they don't fight back
 
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