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I'm going to do some fly-by-the-seat-of-my-pants analysis here, so please bear with me.
As of now, here are the known, indisputable facts we have:
* The first mission team (randakar, tamius and esemesas) had at least one spy on it.
Unfortunately, that seems to be it in terms of hard facts, so let's take a look at some assumptions. I'm going to walk through some scenarios.
Scenario A: Esemesas is a spy
In this scenario, I'm going to make the assumption that Ese would not propose a team with him and both of his spy-mates. That seems a bit too brazen, so either he proposed a team with one spy-mate, or none.
If I were in his position here, I would propose a team containing a spy mate and then send in a non-sabotage order. I figure that regardless of what my spy-mate does it's the best situation. Why? Because if my spy mate sabotages, we get a "won" mission with the least amount of information given to the resistance. If my spy-mate also does a non-sabo, we do lose the mission, but we get a very nice consolation prize in given two spies a "semi-cleared status", even if others assumed it was likely there was still one spy on the team (which would be smart), they would probably not believe there was two, and that could be used later.
Alternatively, Ese proposed a team with two resistance members with the knowledge that only one sabo would happen (his) leaving the resistance with a failed mission and little information. That's the simplest path, not the one I would have chosen, but certainly not one I would be surprised by anyone else doing.
As I said above, I'm not even going to consider the option that Ese proposed a all-spy team.
Scenario B: Ese is not a spy.
In this scenario, there are only two options. Ese unknowingly picked one spy for the mission, or Ese unknowingly picked two and one of the spies decided to not sabotage. Which one of these is more likely?
In the shoes of a spy, if I was the only spy chosen, I would sabotage, and if me and another spy were chosen, I would not. Randakar seems to know how to play this game, so I assume that if he is a spy his decision would probably match mine. I have no idea what tamius would do.
Unfortunately, if B is true, I think it just makes the situation murkier.
None of this analysis is going to help us pick a perfect resistance team right now (with only one mission, you *can't* get enough analysis for that), but it's something to look back on when we get more information from the next mission.
As of now, here are the known, indisputable facts we have:
* The first mission team (randakar, tamius and esemesas) had at least one spy on it.
Unfortunately, that seems to be it in terms of hard facts, so let's take a look at some assumptions. I'm going to walk through some scenarios.
Scenario A: Esemesas is a spy
In this scenario, I'm going to make the assumption that Ese would not propose a team with him and both of his spy-mates. That seems a bit too brazen, so either he proposed a team with one spy-mate, or none.
If I were in his position here, I would propose a team containing a spy mate and then send in a non-sabotage order. I figure that regardless of what my spy-mate does it's the best situation. Why? Because if my spy mate sabotages, we get a "won" mission with the least amount of information given to the resistance. If my spy-mate also does a non-sabo, we do lose the mission, but we get a very nice consolation prize in given two spies a "semi-cleared status", even if others assumed it was likely there was still one spy on the team (which would be smart), they would probably not believe there was two, and that could be used later.
Alternatively, Ese proposed a team with two resistance members with the knowledge that only one sabo would happen (his) leaving the resistance with a failed mission and little information. That's the simplest path, not the one I would have chosen, but certainly not one I would be surprised by anyone else doing.
As I said above, I'm not even going to consider the option that Ese proposed a all-spy team.
Scenario B: Ese is not a spy.
In this scenario, there are only two options. Ese unknowingly picked one spy for the mission, or Ese unknowingly picked two and one of the spies decided to not sabotage. Which one of these is more likely?
In the shoes of a spy, if I was the only spy chosen, I would sabotage, and if me and another spy were chosen, I would not. Randakar seems to know how to play this game, so I assume that if he is a spy his decision would probably match mine. I have no idea what tamius would do.
Unfortunately, if B is true, I think it just makes the situation murkier.
None of this analysis is going to help us pick a perfect resistance team right now (with only one mission, you *can't* get enough analysis for that), but it's something to look back on when we get more information from the next mission.
The team Cymsdale suggested was the team I was going to propose.
propose the team:
Kingepyon
Cymsdale
AVN
Xarcan
And I obviously approve it.
propose the team:
Kingepyon
Cymsdale
AVN
Xarcan
And I obviously approve it.
I should not approve, since I have no idea who this 'Xarcan' person is. ;-)
Approve proposal
Approve
Win-win for me: either the team succeeds OR I'm fully cleared.
I'd rather it be the former, though. Commendable self-sacrifice.
If it fails, victory is within reach for the spies.
Win-win for me: either the team succeeds OR I'm fully cleared.
I'd rather it be the former, though. Commendable self-sacrifice.
If it fails, victory is within reach for the spies.
Approve
Win-win for me: either the team succeeds OR I'm fully cleared.
I'd rather it be the former, though. Commendable self-sacrifice.
How would it fully clear you? One spy in the first team, one in the second, third one is you.
Reject the team.
Oh, I forgot for a moment that there were 3 for a moment (leftover thinking from game #1). Still, that would be unlikely that one spy is on team 1, another on 2, with me-the sole remaining player yet to be on a team- as the third.
You guys sound a little too in sync, tbh.
Anyway, I APPROVE this team, since I don't think there's a better course of action right now.
Also, assumptions are power, Cymsdale. Don't assume people would act this or that way so easily.
Err, no you're not. If there's one sabotage in this round, you can still be the third spy ..
(or does this mission succeed if there is only one sabotage? I kinda doubt that ..)
I'd rather it be the former, though. Commendable self-sacrifice.
Well, I honestly think there is going to be _at least_ one spy on that team.
Good to see someone thinks the same thing I'm thinking.
Actually, guys, based on this I'd say Cliges is NOT a spy. A spy would not make that mistake.
So I want him in this team.
Vote reject the team
I'm currently guessing the spies are esemesas, AVN, and either Kingepyon or cymsdale.
That's pretty much a wild stab in the dark though. And it does beg the question, if either cymsdale or kingepyon is a spy, why would they propose to put AVN-the-fellow-spy in there?
Hmm. There's something here, just not sure yet what it is.
edit:
Actually, we should be able to get some sort of spy matrix with these proposals ..
The team I'd like to see would be composed of people opposing the first team - Kingepyon, Cymsdale, randakar - and cliges.
I want at least one person of the first team in there, because I doubt there was more than one spy in there, which means any 4-player team composed of the last 5 people is guaranteed to have at least one spy..
Hmm.
If esemesas is a spy, would he have given his plot cards to fellow spies, or to resistance members?
Because he gave out a No Confidence to Cliges, and a Keeping A Close eye on you to AVN. You'd think he'd give at least one of those to a fellow spy, if he's a spy. But Cliges, imho, is not a spy - yet he gave Cliges the first of those cards.
So if esemesas is a spy, so is AVN. Because I really don't see esemesas giving *that* card to anyone but a fellow spy, if he's a spy. Do you?
God, this game gets complicated really fast, doesn't it?
edit: In other news, I gained another year today. Jay me ..
I want at least one person of the first team in there, because I doubt there was more than one spy in there, which means any 4-player team composed of the last 5 people is guaranteed to have at least one spy..
Hmm.
If esemesas is a spy, would he have given his plot cards to fellow spies, or to resistance members?
Because he gave out a No Confidence to Cliges, and a Keeping A Close eye on you to AVN. You'd think he'd give at least one of those to a fellow spy, if he's a spy. But Cliges, imho, is not a spy - yet he gave Cliges the first of those cards.
So if esemesas is a spy, so is AVN. Because I really don't see esemesas giving *that* card to anyone but a fellow spy, if he's a spy. Do you?
God, this game gets complicated really fast, doesn't it?
edit: In other news, I gained another year today. Jay me ..
I thought things were less confusing before you said either me or Kingepyon are a spy, and then suggested that we both be put on the next team.
(Also, is the forum acting kinda crappy for anyone else, or is it just me?)
(Also, is the forum acting kinda crappy for anyone else, or is it just me?)
If the forum allows me, I decided to extend my previous analysis with math, in order to determine the numerical probabilities that specific persons are a spy.
With no information at all, everyone has a base P of 3/8 of being a spy, therefore, in the scenarios I provided above, scenario A had a 3/8 chance of happening, and scenario B a 5/8.
Tamius and Randakar both have the same modified chance of being a spy.
I'm assuming that in scenario B, only one of them is a spy, so you get:
(5/8 * 1/2)
In scenario A, I lined out two possibilities, either Ese picked another spy or he put two resistance with him. I don't know which is more likely, so I'll just split the middle and assume it's a coin flip adding
(3/8 * 1/2 * 1/2)
resulting in 0.40625 chance. This is slightly higher than the base chance of being a spy, but that makes sense, they were both on a failed mission.
Now for the ese math... this gets a bit more complicated.
We have to take a hard look at scenario B, and ask, if Ese is not a spy, what is the probability that he would randomly choose exactly one other spy to be on the team?
Well, the chance of picking no spies in this case is:
(4/7) * (3/6)
and the chance of picking two spies is:
(3/7) * (2/6)
So the chance of picking exactly one spy is:
1 - (4/7) * (3/6) - (3/7) * (2/6) = 0.571428571
So the probability of scenario A is the probability of scenario B not happening meaning:
1 - 0.571428571 = 0.428571429.
Which means I have to revisit the math above for Tamius and Randakar to get
P(T|R) = 0.428571429 * (1/2 * 1/2) + 0.571428571 * 1/2 = 0.392857143
With no information at all, everyone has a base P of 3/8 of being a spy, therefore, in the scenarios I provided above, scenario A had a 3/8 chance of happening, and scenario B a 5/8.
Tamius and Randakar both have the same modified chance of being a spy.
I'm assuming that in scenario B, only one of them is a spy, so you get:
(5/8 * 1/2)
In scenario A, I lined out two possibilities, either Ese picked another spy or he put two resistance with him. I don't know which is more likely, so I'll just split the middle and assume it's a coin flip adding
(3/8 * 1/2 * 1/2)
resulting in 0.40625 chance. This is slightly higher than the base chance of being a spy, but that makes sense, they were both on a failed mission.
Now for the ese math... this gets a bit more complicated.
We have to take a hard look at scenario B, and ask, if Ese is not a spy, what is the probability that he would randomly choose exactly one other spy to be on the team?
Well, the chance of picking no spies in this case is:
(4/7) * (3/6)
and the chance of picking two spies is:
(3/7) * (2/6)
So the chance of picking exactly one spy is:
1 - (4/7) * (3/6) - (3/7) * (2/6) = 0.571428571
So the probability of scenario A is the probability of scenario B not happening meaning:
1 - 0.571428571 = 0.428571429.
Which means I have to revisit the math above for Tamius and Randakar to get
P(T|R) = 0.428571429 * (1/2 * 1/2) + 0.571428571 * 1/2 = 0.392857143
Happy birthday!
And I just realised that, unless there was more than one spy on team 1(possible, yet unlikely), the team we are now debating would have a 100 percent chance of having a spy.
So, if there's still time, I would like to switch my vote to REJECT.
I agree with randakar about esemesas and ANV. If ese is a spy, so is AVN. Sadly, that doesn't work both ways, as if AVN is a spy, esemesas could have randomly given the card out. Similarily, though, if AVN is not a spy, esemesas likely isn't, either.
I also don't think tamius is a spy, for already stated reasons. Which means I think either randakar or ese is the spy from the first group. Randy is a pretty smart guy, so he would be acting like a resistance member whether or not he is a spy. So not the question is, did he reject the first team knowing his spy buddies would support it, or eas he a resistance member trying to get more information. Obviously the first team had a spy on it, so we know that the spies would have been significantly more interested in supporting it. Who didn't support it? Myself, cymsdale and randakar. So either we were ok with trying to shoot down the team we knew we had a spy on, or were likely not spies.
If we look at the next vote, randakar rejects that one as well, based on the fact that ese and tamius may be spies, and continues to reject the team where no members of the first team are present. Based on the numbers, its numerically impossible for both those teams to contain no spies, so either randakar is just a spy rejecting everything, or he's honestly trying to determins teams with no spies. The second case is more likely.
Due to this,esemesas now looks like a spy candidate, and, due to getting that card, AVN does as well. due to this recent analysis, I'm going to have to reject my own team
change vote to reject
I also don't think tamius is a spy, for already stated reasons. Which means I think either randakar or ese is the spy from the first group. Randy is a pretty smart guy, so he would be acting like a resistance member whether or not he is a spy. So not the question is, did he reject the first team knowing his spy buddies would support it, or eas he a resistance member trying to get more information. Obviously the first team had a spy on it, so we know that the spies would have been significantly more interested in supporting it. Who didn't support it? Myself, cymsdale and randakar. So either we were ok with trying to shoot down the team we knew we had a spy on, or were likely not spies.
If we look at the next vote, randakar rejects that one as well, based on the fact that ese and tamius may be spies, and continues to reject the team where no members of the first team are present. Based on the numbers, its numerically impossible for both those teams to contain no spies, so either randakar is just a spy rejecting everything, or he's honestly trying to determins teams with no spies. The second case is more likely.
Due to this,esemesas now looks like a spy candidate, and, due to getting that card, AVN does as well. due to this recent analysis, I'm going to have to reject my own team
change vote to reject