Chapter 48: ‘A Ray of Hope for the World’ (1 to 31 July 1938)
Newsreel Prologue
This time, for those who are interested, we have a short scene-setter newsreel clip from
British Pathe in 1938, titled ‘
In Palestine Today’. Tragically, the same themes keep recurring through to today in OTL. It also includes some the of the military equipment of the time. And shows the Allies were not shy about their propaganda efforts either …
The Sanjak of Alexandretta – Developments in July 1938
Hatay, still part of the post-Great War French League of Nations Mandate in 1938, claimed by Turkey.
On
3 July 1938 France and Turkey signed a pact on the
Sanjak of Alexandretta (aka
Hatay, aka
Inskenderun), agreeing to settle the future of the region with an election. The allocation of seats in the sanjak assembly was based on the 1938 census held by the French authorities under international supervision: out of 40 seats, 22 were given to the Turks, nine for Alawi, five for Armenians, two for Sunni Arabs, and two for Antiochian Greeks. This repartition was the result of a Turkish military intervention just beforehand, on
5 July 1938.
Turkish forces under Colonel Şükrü Kanatlı entered İskenderun (Alexandretta) on 5 July 1938, to ‘oversee the referendum’. Ahem; we know how that works.
Turkey had also crossed tens of thousands of Turks into the
Sanjak of Alexandretta to register as citizens and vote. Moreover, the results seemed to be questionable because it happened for the sole purpose of seat repartition, and Turkish propaganda was very active among Alevis and Circassians, all of whom were considered as Turks by Ankara. According to the official registration numbers by
22 July 1938, 57,008 voters in the Sanjak were registered. Despite the voter registration, no elections were held and an "approved" sanjak assembly was commissioned by Turkish and French authorities.
All these ‘sharp’ practices have become the norm in the modern world of 1938. “Whatever it takes” has become the new dictum for settling border and political disputes. President Atatürk appointed Tayfur Sökmen to lead the transition process: he is due to enter Alexandretta (İskenderun) next month to oversee it.
Tayfur Sökmen was born in Gaziantep (Turkey) in 1892. During the French Mandate in Hatay (1923-38) he participated in opposition movement. In 1935 he was elected MP from Antalya Province. When Hatay was declared an independent state Sökmen was elected as the president of the short-lived Republic.
Op Chaldiran – Final Military Operations, 2-5 Jul 38
2 Jul 38 (D+75)
At 0500 on 2 Jul 38, Karabekir’s 3 Inf Div and Toüdemür’s 3 Cav Div go into battle with the Persian 1st Division, which has just made it to
Esfahan after retreating from
Kashan. With only around 50% organisation, they are just in time to put up a last, forlorn fight for the final city needed to bring Persia to its knees. After a nine-hour fight, it is all over.
5 Jul 38 (D+78)
Three days later, MAJGEN Toüdemür leads 3 Cav Div triumphantly into
Esfahan. Later that night, emissaries from the Shah contact him to sue for peace. A cease-fire goes into place, with the traditional midnight unconditional surrender to come into effect. We will not present another campaign map, as this last battle in
Esfahan is all that has changed since the comprehensive update in Chapter 47.
Esfahan, with the Masjed-e ʿAli in the foreground.
6 Jul 38 (D+79) - Victory in Persia Day
Armistice. Immediately after midnight, all Persian forces lay down their arms. The Shah surrenders himself, with safe passage and a special membership offered to the Ex-Kings Club in Bulgaria (now open on an equal-opportunity basis to non-Balkan ex-monarchs). The conquest is formalised, with Turkey now officially recognising the region of Former Persia as Iran (though no longer of course as an independent country).
Manpower and Mobilisation. Unfortunately, victory means Turkey must revert to the
One-Year Draft, with negative effects on MP and Officer growth rates. Turkey is still more than 5% short of the 70% NU required to enact a better law in this area during peacetime. The Finance Ministry and the Armed Forces Chief of Staff have crunched the numbers on the question of mobilisation. They have confirmed the stats behind the long-standing Turkish policy of remaining mobilised. While demobilising would put 44.0 MP back into the pool, re-mobilising would cost 87.2, meaning 43.2 would be lost. With MP in such short supply for Turkey, this would be prohibitive – in fact, disastrous. A bit of modelling showed any cost in extra consumer goods would be negligible. If there is a diplomatic cost, we can’t quantify it and will just have to live with it. In the end, it is a ‘no-brainer’: even though we now anticipate a prolonged period of peace for Turkey (possibly up to around three years unless something unexpected happens to drag us into a general war, or some opportunity for expansion comes up), the Armed Forces will remain mobilised.
Turkish Dominions Expand - Again. Turkish rule now spans from the Italian border in the west to Afghanistan and India in the east, with two long borders with our hoped-for Soviet ally either side of the Caspian Sea. Iran adds a great deal of oil and a lot of land, but not too much else. One very noticeable characteristic of the new Dominions is how long and thin (comparatively) the nation is now. While Turkey is neatly placed in the middle of this sprawling multi-ethnic expanse, distance is a very serious factor. As will be the defence of key points. While we can’t afford to defend much of Iran, thought will have to be given at least to providing a small force to put down rebellions and perhaps a garrison for the enormous oilfields of
Ahvaz. Even if there aren’t any obvious nearby enemies to threaten them at the moment, they are vulnerable to naval assault by some opportunist in the future (for example, Italy is quite close in Ethiopia).
Redeployment. First, a brigade (1/13 Inf Bde) is split off from HQ 2 Corps and sent to
Tehran to provide the small initial reaction force for any revolts in Iran. A garrison for
Ahvaz will be considered later.
The rest of the Army is sent back by rail to
Istanbul and
Ankara. Detailed new positions will be decided later (Cabinet will eventually need to consider forward vs depth defensive strategies and whether to establish southern Greece as a stronghold). The troops will finally get the R&R the veterans have been looking forward to since March 1937. There will be massive victory parades and joyful reunions aplenty. One unit battle honour for the Persian Campaign will be awarded to 1, 3, 5 and 7 Inf Divs, for the
Battle of Tehran.
Research Boost. One full LS point is swapped from
Officer Training to
Research now that draft laws are not giving so much bang for the buck in our recruiting and officer training institutions. This takes us up to seven projects, with much-needed
Artillery improvement begun.
‘A New Dawn’
With the announcement of victory on the morning of Wednesday 6 July 1938 comes an historic declaration on the nation’s future. President Atatürk (putting on a brave face for one last great public duty) and Prime Minister Inönü jointly proclaim the intention to form the new political entity of the
Union of Glorious National Republics. The background to this proposal and its broad details have already been discussed in this chronicle, so suffice it to say that the
Great and Glorious Republic of Turkey, with 17 other
Glorious National Republics, will now form a mighty union to face the troubled times ahead. While the announcement has been made, the new constitution and administrative arrangements will be made during a transition in coming weeks and months. The nation’s leaders also reaffirmed the
Pact of Freedom alliance with
Romania, which would apply equally to all Glorious Union members. An attack on one is an attack on all!
All across Turkey there are victory celebrations and praise for the ‘Strong Peace’ Turkey has now won for itself and the peoples of the Glorious Union. The newspapers trumpet these great tidings.
International reaction will need to be assessed in the longer term, but there are no adverse occurrences at the moment. The neutrality of both Germany and Italy is now at zero. With the Soviets, the situation seems unchanged (47 neutrality against a Turkish threat of 32) and the UK is still very uncommitted (65 neutrality, 36.2 Turkish threat). The biggest move is with France, now down to 38 neutrality against a Turkish threat of 40.2! But there are no objective indications that anything will come of this for now.
As the troops slowly make their way back on Turkey’s overtaxed railway system, normality gradually returns, plans for parades are made and the machinery of a new supra-national system of government, run from Ankara (of course), goes on. Atatürk is no longer seen in public: he has retired to his sick-bed. Inönü exercises day to day control of the transition as Head of Government.
12 Jul 38
Tech discoveries during the month will be summarised at the end of this instalment. But one, progress in
Education, bears fruit now: LS takes a healthy 5% rise, with the extra effort put back into
Officer production, now that Turkey is maintaining seven research projects.
The same evening, the latest British influence campaign ends. It has slowed, but not derailed our alignment to the Comintern, which once again continues unimpeded. Interior Minister Kaya boasts of his agency's diligent efforts in stamping out foreign propaganda and 'fake news'.
14 Jul 38
Kaya should perhaps not have trumpeted his recent success so enthusiastically: German influence has now been reasserted and with more than double the effect of the British campaign. A long slog is in store, it seems. Kaya's underlings make sure to avoid his angry eye as best they can for a few days.
25 Jul 39
The 1/13 Inf Bde arrives in
Tehran to take up occupation duties. Turkish Military Intelligence officers are tasked with combing what HQ and unit archives they can of the former Persian Army, interrogating officers, and so on, to determine how they fought (or didn’t
really fight) the recent campaign. The lack of any serious combat until near the end has Turkish Supreme HQ intrigued as to what happened. They want a ‘lessons learned’ report, taking both sides of the campaign into account.
News Report: Haifa, Palestine. The same day, a bomb detonated in the market place at
Haifa, the chief port of British Palestine. This followed a period of violence and unrest in Palestine over previous months. 43 people were killed and 42 wounded. In three weeks, 123 people have died in ethnic violence between Arabs and Jews in the British occupied territory.
Terrorists detonate a bomb in the Haifa market. The British have a serious problem on their hands, with sectarian violence on the rise.
30 Jul 38
After an 18 day break, and perhaps prompted by Germany’s renewed efforts, the British once again seek to influence Turkey to their cause. Turkey is now at the centre of a three-way tug-of-war! However, this kind of interference was anticipated: things are still progressing in line with original planning. It is a matter of staying the course, as they will not sustain their efforts continuously, as we are able to (for free) by voluntarily aligning to the Comintern. In a way, we are imposing an ‘LS tax’ on our opponents every time they seek to influence us. Kaya is checked into hospital briefly, after an attack of rage-induced apoplexy!
But there is far better (and more significant) news on this same day: the Soviets have finally agreed to sell us production licenses! The fighter planes they currently have on offer are rubbish (their Polikarpovs are no better than the Hawk 3s we can produce ourselves if we wished – which we don’t), but we can now buy some
medium tanks. Huzzah - that’s more like it! We buy two licenses, to run in serial.
An illustration of the new T-28 Medium Tank (1938 model) that will soon be running off Turkish production lines. Re-tooling begins immediately: fortunately, our earlier production run of the primitive CV-33 light tank will hasten this process. We will designate it as the T-28 (T1).
The first new Armoured Brigade is elevated in the queue to ensure it is running at 100%. Supply production is temporarily reduced to zero to help cover the shortfall in IC.
31 Jul 38
Armaments Minister Calistar provides a summary of technical breakthroughs for the month and the new projects that have been selected for study. There is an emphasis on improving army equipment across the board, but industry and science will not be completely forgotten during this period of peace and preparation. Improvements in Manpower (
Agriculture) remain on the schedule, with
Advanced Construction being added to allow for new infrastructure building. More research to improve leadership will be kept in mind for later.
Coming Up: As the month of July ends, great changes continue in the new (provisionally named)
Glorious Union. Troops, political developments, industry and science are all in motion. The month was fairly quiet on the Czech crisis, but Hitler will not be giving up easily on that score, no doubt. Rumours have begun about new Turkish diplomatic postings, while the shady and violent Luca Brasi’s name is again being mentioned (in hushed tones) in the corridors and back rooms at S.I.T.H. Darth Kelebek is sent to Iran to ‘assess the political situation’ and report on the prospects of counter-revolutionary movements. He is however asked to try to win hearts and minds for now – and
not by removing said vital parts from the bodies of unlucky suspects! Yet, anyway.
