Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[Bullfilter]

Ok, if there’s no further correspondence over the Germany vote, I’ll make a final amendment of the outcomes post and we’ll move on to the final stage of the peace conference, including the crucial die roll that will resolve what happens in India when they process the decision of Britain to veto the resolution on its fate.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Ok, if there’s no further correspondence over the Germany vote, I’ll make a final amendment of the outcomes post and we’ll move on to the final stage of the peace conference, including the crucial die roll that will resolve what happens in India when they process the decision of Britain to veto the resolution on its fate.

Ooo. This is going to be tense. For some of us.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

And they definitely should, because Japan and the US are probably going to war soon so they don't really have many other options for protection.

The US and what casus belli? FDR's latest ulcer?

 

[Bullfilter]

The US and what casus belli? FDR's latest ulcer?

Probably Wendell Willkie's 1944 Presidency and his quest to achieve One World, in alliance with China!

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Probably Wendell Willkie's 1944 Presidency and his quest to achieve One World, in alliance with China!

Actually a Willkie presidency makes sense, or whoever runs against FDR at least. Winning side of the war or not, American involvement was pretty minimal and they haven't gotten much out of the peace conference as a result (keeping their Pacific islands only because of the generosity of the international community). I can imagine this wouldn't make him nearly as popular in the next election compared to OTL 1944, especially with the Soviet-Turkish bloc likely edging them out in terms of who gets to push their version of the Marshall Plan on war-torn Europe.

 

[Bullfilter]

Actually a Willkie presidency makes sense, or whoever runs against FDR at least. Winning side of the war or not, American involvement was pretty minimal and they haven't gotten much out of the peace conference as a result (keeping their Pacific islands only because of the generosity of the international community). I can imagine this wouldn't make him nearly as popular in the next election compared to OTL 1944, especially with the Soviet-Turkish bloc likely edging them out in terms of who gets to push their version of the Marshall Plan on war-torn Europe.

Have already been thinking that way for the post-war hypothetical.

 

[Wraith11B]

The US and what casus belli? FDR's latest ulcer?

The casus belli of Congress pulling their knickers up and fucking the world about the peace for Versailles Redux. They wouldn't tolerate being dictated to make peace. FDR gets impeached over being forced to sign.

All in all, *shrug* whatever... The AI sucks. We know this. The eight SUBRONs laying at the bottom of the Pacific along with X number of Japanese merchies don't matter much. Apparently neither does the funding of, what basically a quarter to a third of the world's industry? So, all in all, Congress is probably either going to sink the peace and we maybe get an armstice cold war sort of non-resolution or the US goes even harder into isolation this time.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

or the US goes even harder into isolation this time.

I think this is the most likely. A lot of the factors that drive the Cold War aren't really present here, which should actually be a concern as this means a future WW3 is far more likely, as there are still several global powers which are relatively independent of one another - no NATO vs. Soviet bloc here despite Turkish proclamations of friendship. The only questions is who's going to start it, as right now none of those five major powers are interested in more than some border conflagrations. If any of the five remaining great powers take a turn towards (more) nationalism and start getting really greedy then we may have something. That aside, I think the most likely result is a return to the late-Victorian era for the time being, in the sense of a cluster of great powers balancing he world between them.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The casus belli of Congress pulling their knickers up and fucking the world about the peace for Versailles Redux. They wouldn't tolerate being dictated to make peace. FDR gets impeached over being forced to sign.

All in all, *shrug* whatever... The AI sucks. We know this. The eight SUBRONs laying at the bottom of the Pacific along with X number of Japanese merchies don't matter much. Apparently neither does the funding of, what basically a quarter to a third of the world's industry? So, all in all, Congress is probably either going to sink the peace and we maybe get an armstice cold war sort of non-resolution or the US goes even harder into isolation this time.

I think this is the most likely. A lot of the factors that drive the Cold War aren't really present here, which should actually be a concern as this means a future WW3 is far more likely, as there are still several global powers which are relatively independent of one another - no NATO vs. Soviet bloc here despite Turkish proclamations of friendship. The only questions is who's going to start it, as right now none of those five major powers are interested in more than some border conflagrations. If any of the five remaining great powers take a turn towards (more) nationalism and start getting really greedy then we may have something. That aside, I think the most likely result is a return to the late-Victorian era for the time being, in the sense of a cluster of great powers balancing he world between them.

Certainly I think the New Comintern is the only big power bloc in the world, and whilst it is inherently expansionist, its already won in the areas the rest of the world might contest (western Europe).

I doubt the exhausted British who have to now deal with the consequences of letting their empire do all the fighting whilst they were safe and rich on their island (no bombing or ship loses though so their economy is probably great) are going to stop or care about the Turks digging into the middle east.

The French are more than likely to be our friends, not just because we surround them but because we agree ideologically (they almost certainly will elect a left wing government). Might even join one of the lesser spheres of the New Comintern voluntarily later on.

Japan has so much to do in China that they can't do anything else for decades, esepcially with the fear that doing anything in the Pacific at all will set off the US.

The US meanwhile is super wealthy and powerful, and could easily slide into isolationism now they have no real ties to the rest of the world. 'The West' is literally just the anglosphere at this point, and the UK is still a pretty powerful if declining imperialist power. I suspect if Russia respects the Monroe doctrine (which will no doubt be tested by communist revolutions), there will be little trouble for a decade at least...maybe when nukes are developed.

Leaving us with Turkey and Russia. Now...they aren't quite ideologically unified yet, however inertia and momentum of war comradeship, and winning an equitable peace between them will no doubt keep things smooth for a long time. There is no border tension, no outstanding dispute and no real sphere overlap (except allowing Russian ships through the straits into the Med, I guess).

Personally I think either Turkey will move closer into the New Comintern and do well there, or try to stay out of it and struggle with their absolutely massive far flung land empire for a few decades before some of it inevitably starts to split.

However, the future is looking pretty bright for the world, esepcially Europe.

 

[SSmith]

Listening to the American rhetoric, I have to assume there's a good chance of further conflict arising with Japan in the near future, depending of course how the outcome of this conference affects the internal politics of the United States. The other likely outcome is the U.S. withdrawing into isolationism. The national government in the U.K. was only ever intended to be wartime arrangement, so I anticipate Mr. Churchill will soon be rejected even more comprehensively than happened historically. I wouldn't like to predict whether Labour will profit from this or whether we see the rise of more extreme political forces instead. Britain has lost colonies in the Far East and the rest of the house of cards is about to fall down, and that's not a recipe for domestic stability.

In all circumstances, I think we can expect to see an accelerated collapse of the old European colonial empires and the Soviet Union is in the best position to extend its influence throughout Asia and Africa as a result. As the other "winners" in this time line, I don't see the Turks or the Japanese having the same problems as the British for at least a decade or two. In truth the U.S. will probably be fully occupied defending the Western Hemisphere from the advance of Soviet ideology. If there is to be a nuclear stand-off, it's still probably be between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., but it is just about conceivable the other members of the P5 get to join the nuclear club.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Listening to the American rhetoric, I have to assume there's a good chance of further conflict arising with Japan in the near future, depending of course how the outcome of this conference affects the internal politics of the United States. The other likely outcome is the U.S. withdrawing into isolationism. The national government in the U.K. was only ever intended to be wartime arrangement, so I anticipate Mr. Churchill will soon be rejected even more comprehensively than happened historically. I wouldn't like to predict whether Labour will profit from this or whether we see the rise of more extreme political forces instead. Britain has lost colonies in the Far East and the rest of the house of cards is about to fall down, and that's not a recipe for domestic stability.

In all circumstances, I think we can expect to see an accelerated collapse of the old European colonial empires and the Soviet Union is in the best position to extend its influence throughout Asia and Africa as a result. As the other "winners" in this time line, I don't see the Turks or the Japanese having the same problems as the British for at least a decade or two. In truth the U.S. will probably be fully occupied defending the Western Hemisphere from the advance of Soviet ideology. If there is to be a nuclear stand-off, it's still probably be between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., but it is just about conceivable the other members of the P5 get to join the nuclear club.

One thing the UK has in its favour (and the USSR too) is that German and Austrian scientists will have fled Germany to the UK and Russia as per OTL...but none of them will have gone to the US afterwards. The ones who return to Germany and/or went to Russia work for the Soviets, and rhe ones who didn't would be safe in the UK (no blitz and not going to Comintern member US).

That means the UK and Soviets have the nazi rocket scientists and aircraft engineers between them, plus rhe nuclear physicists. The US has their home grown ones, and the ones who emigrated before 1936, but guess who has a huge sly network that's already infiltrated the US? In OTL it was Stalin. In TTL, its SITH.

So we're looking at Russia definetly being a nuclear power, Britain probably also doing it at the same time, whatever state the Manhatten project is in, and Turkey probably only a few steps behind the other three due to being able to steal/be given stuff from the others.

The only great power at the Table who wony have nukes will be Japan, which is unfortunate because they're also the most likely to end up being used as the amercian test subjects if a ear between the two goes as one might expect.

 

[SSmith]

Yes, I would go along with that. We don't really know, of course, exactly how extensive the SITH infiltration in the United States is, but it does appear the Americans are waking up to the fact they might need to be wary of their former allies. I would certainly think the closer cooperation with the U.S. in this time line has given the Soviets and the Turks plenty of opportunity to embed more intelligence assets. Yes, I think I would agree Japan is starting at a disadvantage in the nuclear race and won't have the same access as Turkey to the other nations' projects. On balance, I fear this world might turn out to be a more dangerous one that OTL.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

We don't really know, of course, exactly how extensive the SITH infiltration in the United States is, but it does appear the Americans are waking up to the fact they might need to be wary of their former allies.

The US is either going to go into lock down and isolate, or try to figure out how to deal with a USSR that controls a huge communist alliance stretching across the entire old world, and Turkey, who is essentially the new roman empire with a gigantic oil supply.

I would certainly think the closer cooperation with the U.S. in this time line has given the Soviets and the Turks plenty of opportunity to embed more intelligence assets.

SITH is going to be a huge problem for the US and the British, but also for Turkey. Sure they have a super powerful intelligence and security service that WILL keep the provinces in line for a good few decades...but they're now also responsible for internal security as well, and have far more military backing and secrets than the cabinet does. Most of the current war hero's and front line generals were appointed by Kelebek's SITH Council.

Bascially the OTL three pillars of Soviet society (the party, the military and SMERSH/KGB) are actually found TTL in Turkey, and both the miktiary and the secret service have large incentives to make the politicians see things their way...and they might even be right, if the goal is keeping the new empire together.

Yes, I think I would agree Japan is starting at a disadvantage in the nuclear race and won't have the same access as Turkey to the other nations' projects. On balance, I fear this world might turn out to be a more dangerous one that OTL.

Japan has a lot of choices though. Do they become enthusiastic outer members of the New Comintern like Turkey? Do they become probably quite cordial and close allies like the French? Or do they try to go their own way, build an empire in China and the south east now France and britian are gone, and then try to handle the amercians alone?

 

[Wraith11B]

I wonder, honestly, if the USSR and Turkey go the way of China and the Soviet Union: a while of comradely spirit, technology sharing, until the United States possibly plays "The China Card" and plays one off the other. Japan fights more in China, perhaps not letting them unify or drag out the situation for longer. So, Turkey (perhaps, Türkiye?), In this case gaining nukes from the Fraternal Socialist Brotherhood, which causes some consternation when they finally split fully.

 

[Bullfilter]

League of Nations
Geneva Peace Conference - 1 December 1944

The Fate of India

​

With the resolution of the last proposition of the Peace Conference (barring any late veto surprise on Proposition 23 and unaffected by that in any practical sense), the outcome of the British veto on Proposition 21.1 will now be determined.

To recap, the terms of the veto are as follows:

Veto: UK. Consequences: a die roll for a popular uprising is made: ​

• 1-2 = minor civil disturbance, stays under UK control, UK -10 points then scored as Raj per 21.1 ;
• 3-4 = major uprising, India become a single independent Allied country, UK -5 points then scored per 21.2;
• 5-6 = catastrophic uprising, India is partitioned (per OTL) with both parts becoming fully independent and non-aligned, scored per 21.3 (ie the veto essentially has no effect)

The British decision has been duly promulgated throughout the Raj. The reaction to it was:

For Britain and India, the Comintern and the Allies, it could have been better or worse. The Raj and direct British control was over. India had not been partitioned - but what would follow there? Could the new nation hold together? In any case, the provisional Indian government declared its intention to remain formally part of the Allies.

The reaction in India was predictably enthusiastic - at first, anyway.

The British would put a brave face on it. Churchill would be furious, but the rest of the country was more relieved.

The US reported the facts. But the government would be pleased with the result - the best they could have expected.

While in Moscow, the ruling classes in general - and Stalin in particular - would be less pleased with the news, even if it did see some diminution of British control and prestige.
​

The die having [literally] been cast, as the delegations returned to their respective capitals, pundits would debate which countries had done best out of the talks in absolute terms and which had managed to extract the best deal they could have reasonably expected with the cards dealt to them.

 

[Wraith11B]

I foresee the Indian Raj holding together for perhaps a year or two before sliding into Civil War... Which are rarely civil, nor wars.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Japan has so much to do in China that they can't do anything else for decades, esepcially with the fear that doing anything in the Pacific at all will set off the US.

My personal vision for Japan has been to secure some kind of peace (and I really do think the bluster from the USA about re-declaring war is just that, the actual public/political will to launch a war of aggression is not going to be there IMO) and then expand through the SEA/India region largely by building economic ties, perhaps eerily reminiscent of European colonialism but with a Japanese flair and probably anti-Western propaganda to help sell it. Like Western colonialism it would probably not be for the best benefit of most SEA peoples but with the US and UK on the outs I think the opportunity is there and Japan would take it, at least while consolidating from their military adventurism in China (which may or may not continue depending on whether or not the IJA can be got under control...).

The only great power at the Table who wony have nukes will be Japan, which is unfortunate because they're also the most likely to end up being used as the amercian test subjects if a ear between the two goes as one might expect.

That depends a lot on whether or not some broad form of M.A.D. develops - which is an interesting question since without the public spectacle of OTL the total destructiveness of a nuclear bomb will not be in the public consciousness. Which could go either way, you might see the tactical nuke doctrine actually used in a hot war between major powers, or you might see the US try one out on a Central American dictatorship for regime change purposes. Using them on Japan, I'm less sure about, since that requires a war of aggression that I don't see happening.

Japan has a lot of choices though. Do they become enthusiastic outer members of the New Comintern like Turkey? Do they become probably quite cordial and close allies like the French? Or do they try to go their own way, build an empire in China and the south east now France and britian are gone, and then try to handle the amercians alone?

Close allies is a stretch, there is a lot of decades-long Russo-Japanese tension that will not dissolve overnight, but I think cordial relations are likely. Japan will appreciate having some kind of backup to make the US think twice about doing anything too assertive in the Pacific, and Stalin will likely be more than happy to overstretch the Soviet Union to maintain an active Pacific sphere, even if he surely does not have the means to really support such a thing, such is the Soviet way.

For Britain and India, the Comintern and the Allies, it could have been better or worse. The Raj and direct British control was over. India had not been partitioned - but what would follow there? Could the new nation hold together? In any case, the provisional Indian government declared its intention to remain formally part of the Allies.

Not quite what Japan had hoped for, but hopefully Indian independence opens some avenues for a partner who is a little bit geographically closer to build relations and economic ties.

 

[Midnite Duke]

My vision: US will reject the UN and all European pacts. The Assistant Deputy Under-Secretary of the Army Air Corps will deliver the Swiss Sell-out to Congress. He and his cadre of clerks will deliver a copy to each member of Congress standing in front of the Capitol. Each Congressperson (bi-partisan support) tosses their copy into a burning barrel surrounded by thousands cheering. Taft or Dewey will win the 1944 election on an America First platform. WW has been imprisoned and awaiting a treason trial for advocating "one world government". The Monroe Doctrine has been beefed up. (There will not be a war with Japan until the evil Japanese torpedo the hospital ship USS Portland in Manila harbor while on an humanitarian mission.) With lesser percentage of males in armed forces, Rosie the Riveter will be less needed during the war thus fewer women in workforce. Asian discrimination in the US is an all-time high, with most Japanese-Americans emigrating. The OSS supports every freedom-fighter against the Imperial Japanese Government. (This included Chiang, Mao and Ho.) The US will have joint exercises with the UK and the dominions.

France will have more arms extended for a hand-out than a octopus. France will flip between Turkey, US, SU and UK as the latest check clears the bank. France will also serve as a conduit to conduct trade between the US/UK and the Soviet. (Turkey will likewise be an independent trade bloc.)

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

For Britain and India, the Comintern and the Allies, it could have been better or worse. The Raj and direct British control was over. India had not been partitioned - but what would follow there? Could the new nation hold together? In any case, the provisional Indian government declared its intention to remain formally part of the Allies.

Well it certainly won't stay together. And I doubt it will partition peacefully either. More like a decades long civil war.

The British would put a brave face on it. Churchill would be furious, but the rest of the country was more relieved.

It's good news for them really. They're going to have enough problems as is.

While in Moscow, the ruling classes in general - and Stalin in particular - would be less pleased with the news, even if it did see some diminution of British control and prestige.

Hehehe. Oh no, this opens up so many new problems for everyone else and gives us the option to find the communist faction and pump them full.

 

[RustyHunter]

Quick question that might make a difference regarding US intentions: was there anything analogous to OTL Pearl Harbor, i.e. a dastardly Japanese sneak attack to outrage the American public and galvanize them into war against Japan? I assume the Day of Infamy event fires, but that's never tied to an actual naval strike in game. If there was some sort of attack to enrage the public though, I don't see the United States accepting some internationally negotiated peace. It was a hard sell OTL to get people to accept fighting Germany first, Japan second, so I can't imagine how they'd take not fighting Japan at all! And if the war does resume, the US is breaking free of its AI shackles, meaning Japan is in for a long, bloody war...

As far as Poland goes, we find ourselves in an awkward spot. The government in exile managed to return to Poland, avoiding being sidelined by Communist puppets, but we are solidly within the Soviet sphere. In OTL Sikorski didn't want Prussia or eastern German territory since he felt those regions would be impossible to integrate into Poland (really a logical stance that you can't just pick up a country and move it west), but I felt obligated to take them since those were the most important goals in my country brief.

I imagine Poland will try to cozy up with Turkey, the UK, really anyone but the Soviets since they are not our friends in actuality. It's easy to remember who stabbed Poland in the back in 1939, and I'm sure other unsavory acts like Katyn Forest still occurred in TTL. The real trick will be to distance from the Soviets without provoking an OTL Hungary 1956 scenario. Things will be much more difficult with Germany falling into a Soviet puppet, but Poland will survive!