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They sort of are in the balkans, Africa, persia, Italy etc though. Which is no doubt going to impact Turkey proper. And don't forget how vast and far reaching SITH is. For all the jokes about it, it's a supremely powerful and dictatorial intelligence agency with wide ranging powers across the entire UGNR.
In the wider UGNR and Bucharest Pact satellites there will be a very wide range of different government types. It could be rather difficult to reconcile and manage.
The SITH effect could be substantive, domestically and externally. Though it may not make the UGNR loved by all. Mr Nut, meet please meet Mr Hammer, he’d like to have a word with you …
After a long and gruelling campaign with the end of the war and the League of Nations Peace Conference in Geneva as a backdrop, opinion polls showed that neither side had been able to shift the dial in their favour on a national basis since its start.
With the nation apparently evenly divided in terms of the popular vote, it would come down to state-by-state contests, where the Republicans – with a generally less concentrated vote – held the tactical advantage in electoral college seats going into this tightly contested election.
Note: Interactive maps from https://www.270towin.com/ A brilliant resource that allows you to fill them in yourself with historical maps available for past elections. Easy to use and I can’t recommend highly enough if you need to simulate something like this. You will see I’ve relied on them heavily to illustrate the chapter.
Enough is enough, and I’m not going to work out whether split state votes were a thing in 1944 and, if they were, apply them. Just winner takes all by state for this ATL.
Voters queue at the 7 November 1944 US Election.
Sample voting machine ballot paper.
---xxx---
First Results – ‘Safe’ States
As usual, it quickly became clear that the most solidly held states on either side (deemed as those with a starting margin of 20% or more) were not going to change hands and these were soon called.
Bill Henry introduces the CBS election broadcast, 7 November 1944.
For the Democrats, these included many of the staunchly ‘Dixiecrat’ states of the south: Mississippi, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Texas, Florida, Arkansas and North Carolina (though a large local swing of 6% to the Republicans there saw the margin reduced to only 13.9%). This delivered 104 EVs to Roosevelt and Truman.
For Dewey and Bricker, the list of ‘safe’ states only included Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Vermont. Despite some small swings in three of them in favour of the Democrats, they were all quickly called on election night, delivering 21 EVs to the challengers.
---xxx---
‘Solid’ States
Next to be called came those with a starting (ie adjusted by me for the campaign start) margin of over 12%, meaning that they were statistically almost impossible to flip with even the largest (6%) local state swing expected.
This added Virginia, Tennessee and Utah to the blue column (another 27 EVs). North Dakota, Indiana, Colorado (despite a 4% swing to the Democrats making it only a 6.3% margin) and Maine all went to the Red column (28 EVs). Roosevelt still led, 131 to 49 EVs.
---xxx---
Battleground States – Election Night
The remaining states could all technically fall to one side or the other, with individual local swings becoming critical. More results came in and some calls could be made with confidence, while others remained too close to call on election night.
For those states already notionally Democrat, Roosevelt’s victory was confirmed (in descending order of margin, all ending up at 5% or more) in Arizona, California, Washington, Rhode Island and Nevada, taking the incumbent to 175 EVs.
For the Republicans, many of the more populous states they notionally held in their column according to election eve polling now came into play. Those clearly remaining with Dewey on (5% or more margin) were Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Wyoming, Michigan, Illinois and Connecticut.
But in a shock, the previously fairly safe and populous Republican states of Ohio (25 EVs) and New Jersey (16 EVs) had both seen large Democrat swings and were now too close to call. The marginal Republican state of Massachusetts (16 EVs) had seen a massive 5% swing to Roosevelt and had gone decisively blue. The rest remained too close to call on election night figures.
The commentators in the CBS election news studio are starting to predict a very close result.
This left the race either sides’ to win and Dewey closing in on the electoral college count with Roosevelt on 191, Dewey 156 and 184 still in the balance.
---xxx---
Subsequent Counting
The votes were called next in Oregon (R), Delaware (D) and Pennsylvania (R, 35 EVs) and Idaho. Then the big one, New York, was called. There, a small swing towards Dewey saw it and its 47 EVs retained in the Republican column. These results massively changing the electoral college dynamic, putting Dewey into the lead with 236 EVs, and 30 away from victory.
With final margins of between 0-2%, Roosevelt picked up New Jersey (1.8% margin) and Ohio (just 0.1% or 3,153 votes out of 3,153,056 cast) from the Republicans, shifting 41 votes into the blue column and almost offsetting the failure to gain New York. Roosevelt retained Kentucky and picked up New Hampshire (by just 0.7%, or 1,607 votes from 229,625) from Dewey, bringing him to 250 EVs – fourteen ahead of Dewey and himself now only 16 away from victory.
But the Republicans held Maryland and New Mexico.
Minnesota (nominally Republican, 11 EVs, with a 1% swing to the Democrats) was predicted to be a dead heat and would have to go to a recount.
The other three marginal states left held another 22 EVs between them and had all been in the Democrat column on election night. With Minnesota requiring a recount and despite having won New York, Dewey was not yet over the line. Dewey was running neck and neck with the sitting President: Roosevelt with 250, Dewey 248. Both men still had a path to victory and it was going to be a very close result.
“It’s going to go down to the wire!”
---xxx---
Down to the Wire
Final counting revealed swings to the Republicans in Oklahoma (3%), West Virginia (2%) and Montana (1%). But would it be enough to swing two or more of these to Dewey and thus seal the race without waiting for the Minnesota recount?
It was: Dewey won Oklahoma with a margin of 2.1%, West Virginia by 1.7% and Montana by just 0.1% (a mere 207 out of 207,355 cast). This took Dewey to 270 EVs, four more than the minimum 266 required in 1944 and just sufficient to declare him the victor by a narrow but sustainable margin in the electoral college vote.
“We’re calling it: Dewey wins by a whisker!”
The recount for Minnesota eventually went very narrowly (die roll) to Roosevelt by just 15 votes, but it was not enough to change the result: Dewey (R) 270, Roosevelt (D) 261.
It had been a better showing for the incumbent than the polls had indicated, but the result was still as the pollsters they had predicted. Roosevelt had narrowly won the popular vote by a little more than 412,000 and the two had split the 48 states evenly between them.
A saddened and disappointed Roosevelt concedes the 1944 Presidential Election.
But Thomas Dewey would be taking the oath of office on 20 January 1945 as Roosevelt contemplated what might have been and served out the remainder of his ‘lame duck’ term.
A happy and relieved Dewey addresses his first press conference as President Elect. He knows it was a very close call and his mandate is far from convincing.
---xxx---
House of Representatives
The results in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats were of course up for re-election, reflected the closeness of the popular vote for President. From the old House, in net terms the Democratic Party lost four seats and the Progressive Party lost one of their two, meaning the Republicans gained five. This left the House very finely balanced, with a razor-thin Democrat majority.
I simply took the 1944 outcomes for the additional party seats, then split the rest between the two major parties proportionally, based on the popular vote from the Presidential election. In the end, it came pretty close to the 1942 mid-terms, but in OTL 1944 the Democrats did considerably better than this on the back of Roosevelt’s re-election.
Sam Rayburn (D, TE) narrowly retained the position of Speaker that he had held since 16 Sep 1940. He preferred to work quietly in the background and successfully used his power of persuasion and charisma to get his bills passed. Many Democrats believed that without Rayburn as their leader the Democratic Party would have been torn apart by inter-factionalism between northern and southern and liberal and conservative Democrats. They were aware of how important Speaker Rayburn was to hold the Democratic Party together. [In OTL he remained the House Democratic Leader for the rest of his life. Also in OTL (1947-48), he would help pass the Marshall Plan and the aid package that supported the Truman Doctrine that supported non-communist European countries and helped to stop the spread of communism.]
Sam Rayburn (D), re-elected narrowly as Speaker of the US House of Representatives.
Similarly, his opposite number Joseph Martin (R, MA) retained his role as House Minority Leader, to which he had been elected on 3 January 1939. He was described as a ‘compassionate conservative’ who opposed the New Deal and supported the conservative coalition of Republicans and southern Democrats. During the New Deal, he stood out as a major opponent of Franklin D. Roosevelt's policies and opposed his internationalist outlook on foreign affairs. [After Eisenhower won the OTL 1952 election, Martin joined the moderate wing of the Republican Party and supported Dwight D. Eisenhower's internationalist outlook. He would remain Republican House Leader until 3 January 1959, serving as Speaker twice, alternating with Sam Rayburn.]
Joseph Martin (R), who continued as Minority Leader for the Republicans in US House of Representatives.
---xxx---
Senate
In the Senate, 32 seats out of the 96 were up for standard re-election, with another three up for special elections to replace appointees made since the 1942 elections. Of these 35 seats, 23 were held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans.
Three flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats: Massachusetts (special election), New Hampshire and Ohio. But the Democrats lost nine in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana (two, including an additional special election), Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, New York and Oklahoma. The Democrats retained their clear majority in the Senate, but it had been reduced considerably. The new Senate appointments would apply from 3 Jan 1945.
Here I just applied the sate result from the ATL Presidential election to those states where Senators were up for election.
Senator Alben W. Barkley (D, KY) remained as the Senate Majority Leader. Originally a loyal supporter of Roosevelt, tension developed between them during the war, when Roosevelt refused to appoint Barkley to a vacancy on the Supreme Court in 1943. [In OTL, Barkley helped ensure U.S. participation in the United Nations and advocated approval of billions of dollars in loans to rebuild Europe. He would become OTL Vice President under Truman in 1948.]
Senator Alben W. Barkley remained Senate Majority Leader after the 1944 election.
Senator Wallace H. White (R, ME) being elected to the Minority Leader position on 25 Feb 1945. [According to one contemporary OTL commentator (in 1947), as the titular party floor leader, "his chief function is to hold the balance between two much more dominant and vivid men, Taft and Vandenberg...Everybody likes White; few people pay much attention to him."]
The liked but often-discounted Senator Wallace H. White continued as Senate Minority Leader.
---xxx---
Summary
These Congressional figures would be the key players who, along with President Dewey, would have to help determine the strategic direction, foreign and defence policy of the US for the next few years. Dewey would have to cope with an almost evenly split House and a hostile Senate. But in this era, deals done across the aisle were far more common than they are today.
Probably see two official notices from the kremlin. One congratulating the new president and the hope (it really is perfunctory but might as well try) that rhe US comintern membership or alliance holds into the peace. The other consolating FDR and thanking him for his service to the freedom loving world and workers internationally.
...
So...this could not be much better for the comintern. The US public has indicated they want to withdraw to some degree from world affairs rather than stay internationalist, the president is an isolationist, and Congress and Senate are split or hostile to the administration, meaning every measure is going to be hard fought and no one is going to feel secure in their seat until the next election at best.
All this is excellent news for the Comintern generally and the USSR in particular. If there was a time for the US to strike fertile ground in Europe, its immediately after the conference but that will not be happening now.
It's somewhat worse news for the UK who really are alone at the top of a shrinking mountain (iceberg?), and even worse news for France, who is in dire need of rebuilding, loans, food and everything else. No choice but to open themsevles up to the warm and loving embrace of Uncles Joe and K.
Something else to note is that Turkey has empowered its own crime family in Italy, and had plenty of connections and power hard and soft there before annexing it. BUT that power and influence with the Mob lasts only as long as the current Don is alive, and whats actually going to keep the Mob in Sicily, Italy and sardinia loyal is that whilst they all have competing interests, alliances and rivalries, they all bow at the alter of SITH.
That's the big issue UGNR gov has after the war. They have their new empire but in order to get it, they had to make several deals with several devils. The Mob (who will be wanting to stick in the peninsula and expand into the balkans), the Soviets (who now the war is over is the senior partner of this extremely lopsided Comintern, Turkey's chief protector, banker and supplier), and above all else, SITH (who now control internal and external security services, control the Mob, keep the Balkans and the puppets in line, are their best line to America through non-diplomatic means, and will have to have their loyalty bought by the regime in Ankara again when Kelebek leaves).
A happy and relieved Dewey addresses his first press conference as President Elect. He knows it was a very close call and his mandate is far from convincing.
This is probably the best outcome for Japan, a tightly-divided public and government (a [R] president already stepping into office with a [D] Congress!) with no clear mandate means no clear and direct foreign policy objective in the Pacific. It seems the American public can see what FDR could not - that further pointless war and adventurism in the Pacific is meaningless and only serves to cost American lives for no American gains.
, they had to make several deals with several devils. The Mob (who will be wanting to stick in the peninsula and expand into the balkans), the Soviets (who now the war is over is the senior partner of this extremely lopsided Comintern, Turkey's chief protector, banker and supplier), and above all else, SITH (who now control internal and external security services, control the Mob, keep the Balkans and the puppets in line, are their best line to America through non-diplomatic means, and will have to have their loyalty bought by the regime in Ankara again when Kelebek leaves).
There is also a serious question of who will follow once Inonu steps down, oddly parallel to the OTL death of Stalin and ascent of Khrushchev albeit with perhaps less rejection of the predecessor's legacy. There is not really a clear successor in place, and given the portrayal of this cabinet over the years I cannot really see anyone who would step forward and unite the government politically. Democracy could be one option, but would introduce considerable political instability (democracy is inherently unstable, which is ironically why it works so well, in part) when what is needed is a strong hand and consolidation amongst the numerous GNRs both existing and to be formed.
I would not trust that the Soviets, particularly whoever succeeds Uncle KJoe, to not start trying to pull off diplomatic fait accompli in nominal GNRs or Turkish puppets given even an appearance of federal weakness, regardless of whatever lies Kelebek is spinning about Comintern unity and togetherness. This could be a significant source of tension in the post-GW2 world, and given that the ATL Soviets have only a fraction of the resources and capability of the OTL United States (as in OTL), their ability to also maintain focus in India, China, and on supporting global communism may be diminished. The new world order may after a few decades resemble the Victorian-era Concert of Europe, albeit with the great powers dispersed globally rather than concentrated in Europe and North America.
This is probably the best outcome for Japan, a tightly-divided public and government (a [R] president already stepping into office with a [D] Congress!) with no clear mandate means no clear and direct foreign policy objective in the Pacific. It seems the American public can see what FDR could not - that further pointless war and adventurism in the Pacific is meaningless and only serves to cost American lives for no American gains.
Need a man (probably) who is popular with the military, has some military experience too, come to think, hasn't committed any personal crimes against the balkans or Italy, isn't overtly religious one way or another, popular in Turkey proper, acceptable to SITH and the...Well...to the wider UGNR and Comintern, let's say (so not overt nazis or flaming racists).
particularly whoever succeeds Uncle KJoe, to not start trying to pull off diplomatic fait accompli in nominal GNRs or Turkish puppets given even an appearance of federal weakness
I would never...directly...take over buffer states like that. Defeats the purpose of having them. They would of course be welcomed into the loving warming glow of communist brotherhood and raised up as indepednant members of the comintern.
The new world order may after a few decades resemble the Victorian-era Concert of Europe, albeit with the great powers dispersed globally rather than concentrated in Europe and North America.
Better for the world long term, perhaps. Though a little more chaotic and violent. Only maybe though. No us and no dominoes theory probably means at least a bit more no big wars etx.
I would never...directly...take over buffer states like that. Defeats the purpose of having them. They would of course be welcomed into the loving warming glow of communist brotherhood and raised up as indepednant members of the comintern.
Better for the world long term, perhaps. Though a little more chaotic and violent. Only maybe though. No us and no dominoes theory probably means at least a bit more no big wars etx.
It would be an interesting test (were it not merely ATL) of whether nuclear weapons can prevent a world war, in the absence of the hegemonic structures of the post-war OTL, or would merely make the next world war rather more quick and deadly than the last. This presuming that a return to a "Concert" style of geopolitics would inevitably lead to a global conflict in the same way that the Victorian era (arguably) inevitably led up to the Great War.
Of all of the current Turkish puppets, that's the one bar Italy that I can see actually getting fairly indepednat fairly soon, and staying that way. Having them as the third man in the balkans is fine by me.
As I see it, the buffer states should be as indepednatly comintern leaning towards pro Soviet, the balkans are turkey's mess that I want no part of, North Italy is a potent communist recruiting ground, south Italy is similar to the balkans in being turkey's problem, and I don't particularly care what happens to north Africa and the Middle East/persia...so long as they stick around in the comintern...moreso the latter of course for oil and Persian gulf reasons.
Things go wrong in the places I/wider comintern care about? Comintern shows up to help. Things go wrong in balkans/north Africa? Meh. Turkey could do with a distraction or six.
Final counting revealed swings to the Republicans in Oklahoma (3%), West Virginia (2%) and Montana (1%). But would it be enough to swing two or more of these to Dewey and thus seal the race without waiting for the Minnesota recount?
A gripping election-night drama that led to a knife-edge result! Very nicely done.
The key thing to take away I think is that although Dewey won the presidency and made gains, the Democrats retained slender majorities in the Senate and the House, which will make it hard for him to follow through on his agenda.
In respect of U.S. foreign policy, here are few stand-out points from the earlier briefing...
Dewey campaigned against Roosevelt's New Deal and his close alignment with the 'Socialist Evil' of the Comintern, especially the Soviet Union. He also railed against the 'failure and fiasco' of the Geneva Conference outcome and hinted at a refusal to ratify the Treaty of Geneva if he came to power, though made no explicit promise in this regard.
Dewey also hankered for an eventual revisiting of the settlement with Japan and advocated a policy of increased defence spending and the confrontation of Japan diplomatically, including its isolation if possible.
He was a firm proponent of remaining in the League of Nations, and of quickly detaching the US from the Comintern and re-engaging with the UK and other Allies. He wanted the US to become the key leader of a future Western Alliance.
He also advocated for closer ties with the UGNR, hoping to woo the Turks away from the Comintern, at least to form a balancing bloc to the 'real Communists' of the Warsaw Pact.
In summary, one presumes he will break away from the Comintern, re-engage with the U.K., engage constructively with Turkey and confront Japan, at least diplomatically. Not such a bad outcome from the British perspective - provided he has enough clout to deliver.
Nice to see politics bringing people together rather than dividing for once. Think at this point just about everyone has declared victory for their cause with Dewey in the Oval Office.
Nice to see politics bringing people together rather than dividing for once. Think at this point just about everyone has declared victory for their cause with Dewey in the Oval Office.
It's not so much that everyone thinks Dewey is on their side, rather that Dewey (especially with an opposition Congress) is too weak to mount a serious threat diplomatically. American isolationism sounds good to everybody else in this timeline it seems.
Thanks once more for all the robust commenting and discussion. I rather enjoyed doing that election episode and will make it a feature of some future updates about the key (big) democracies. I must say I'm rather enjoying this phase of the AAR (which is really now after the game action) and have firmed up my ideas on how I'll take this post-war phase forward. How and when I might end it I will keep under wraps for now - a little suspense and uncertainty never does any harm in a yarn!
---xxx---
The Way Ahead
From here, I'm going to do as outlined previously, riffing off actual OTL events but adapting them to the ATL (sometimes ignoring - like the a-bombs on Japan, their surrender, the late Soviet attack on them), sometimes using them without change, others with countries and parties substituted, sometimes turning them on their head 180 degrees. And of course some events will have to be invented completely.
I've used this approach in both the US Election episode and the next one I've almost finished, focusing on the implementation of the Geneva settlement in Asia and Japan's immediate post-war experience. These episodes will take a thematic approach, geographically or in terms of a time line where a themed episode seems to makes sense. But in general, each update will take things from the post-Geneva starting point and take events through to the end of 1945 for that country or theme.
My plan is after that, with the new world set up, to go more global and chronological in general and cover events over a longer time period up to ... well, haven't quite decided yet, but will see how it all goes, how much time it takes, the reception and what presents itself as a logical end point for the post-war story.
In the approach, I need to makes sure it's manageable so will tend to report by exception, not go into detail about the fate of all the smaller powers unless they need to be mentioned (ie they crop up in the OTL timeline and seem of enough significance) and not overdo complex social, economic or political developments even in the main nations of interest. Inevitably, that will mean glossing over many important things, taking a bit of editorial license and not over-researching certain topics that crop up, even if to do so would be interesting and broadly relevant.
But one thing I have found useful is using the OTL world timeline of significant events to inform the uncertainty and unpredictability of real world events to upset what, from a game-based ATL world leader perspective, may seem like well-laid and inevitable plans for the rosy future of one's adopted protagonist. Plans are made, then sh!t happens!
Probably see two official notices from the kremlin. One congratulating the new president and the hope (it really is perfunctory but might as well try) that rhe US comintern membership or alliance holds into the peace. The other consolating FDR and thanking him for his service to the freedom loving world and workers internationally.
...
So...this could not be much better for the comintern. The US public has indicated they want to withdraw to some degree from world affairs rather than stay internationalist, the president is an isolationist, and Congress and Senate are split or hostile to the administration, meaning every measure is going to be hard fought and no one is going to feel secure in their seat until the next election at best.
All this is excellent news for the Comintern generally and the USSR in particular. If there was a time for the US to strike fertile ground in Europe, its immediately after the conference but that will not be happening now.
It's somewhat worse news for the UK who really are alone at the top of a shrinking mountain (iceberg?), and even worse news for France, who is in dire need of rebuilding, loans, food and everything else. No choice but to open themsevles up to the warm and loving embrace of Uncles Joe and K.
There's more discussion of this below and I'll avoid too much spoiling here. Definitely some elements of truth here, but Soviet expectations may run into the turbulence of wider world events and political drivers in the US, and Dewey's more broad strategic approach, which is not really isolationist at all, even if it's a bit more 'America First'. Remember what some of his Republican successors got up to in the OTL in the 50s and 60s ...
As for the Rest of the West - one thinks they may be pretty keen to engage an avowedly anti-Communist President, while the Democrat-led Congress would be unlikely to get in the way of any proposed engagement with their old friends in the West? But whether Dewey wants to or, or he does, is able to do this is of course another matter.
Something else to note is that Turkey has empowered its own crime family in Italy, and had plenty of connections and power hard and soft there before annexing it. BUT that power and influence with the Mob lasts only as long as the current Don is alive, and whats actually going to keep the Mob in Sicily, Italy and sardinia loyal is that whilst they all have competing interests, alliances and rivalries, they all bow at the alter of SITH.
That's the big issue UGNR gov has after the war. They have their new empire but in order to get it, they had to make several deals with several devils. The Mob (who will be wanting to stick in the peninsula and expand into the balkans), the Soviets (who now the war is over is the senior partner of this extremely lopsided Comintern, Turkey's chief protector, banker and supplier), and above all else, SITH (who now control internal and external security services, control the Mob, keep the Balkans and the puppets in line, are their best line to America through non-diplomatic means, and will have to have their loyalty bought by the regime in Ankara again when Kelebek leaves).
Italy will be interesting indeed. I have some draft ideas for it already and it won't be for the faint-hearted! Same for Turkey, of itself and as head of the UGNR and now the wider Bucharest Pact. They have some conflicts at the heart of the Kemalist-Inonuist ruling ideology that don't match up easily with where the adventurism of the late 1930s and then the unanticipatedly big (for Turkey) outcomes of GW2 have led them. It could get nice ... or ugly. Or both!
This is probably the best outcome for Japan, a tightly-divided public and government (a [R] president already stepping into office with a [D] Congress!) with no clear mandate means no clear and direct foreign policy objective in the Pacific. It seems the American public can see what FDR could not - that further pointless war and adventurism in the Pacific is meaningless and only serves to cost American lives for no American gains.
And Japan needs some help. Their Asian Tiger could well be made of paper, especially as for all they managed to hold or gain from, the oilfields of South East Asia are not among them. Not quite back to square one, and they didn't have nukes dropped on them, their cities and industry bombed out and a long grinding land war in China. And kept their regime and many of its conquests in place and even got a P5 seat with veto power on the LNSC.
But they do have a big oil deficit, issues about some other key resources, economic over-extension, widespread economic embargoes outside their own sphere in East Asia and the impact of a long and grinding ground war against the Soviets in GW2. Not to mention the challenges of trying to run occupation and puppet regimes in post-war Asia, especially with the Soviets on the prowl, local communist leaders on the rise and China still a chaotic mix of wild-assed regimes.
There is also a serious question of who will follow once Inonu steps down, oddly parallel to the OTL death of Stalin and ascent of Khrushchev albeit with perhaps less rejection of the predecessor's legacy. There is not really a clear successor in place, and given the portrayal of this cabinet over the years I cannot really see anyone who would step forward and unite the government politically. Democracy could be one option, but would introduce considerable political instability (democracy is inherently unstable, which is ironically why it works so well, in part) when what is needed is a strong hand and consolidation amongst the numerous GNRs both existing and to be formed.
Very much so. Some interesting things in mind for all that, even as they try to manage their hodge-podge sphere of influencein Central Europe, the Balkans, Iran, the Middle East and North Africa, each with their own (significant) challenges, many of which will only become clear as the post-war world settles into its new milieu. The sheer number, breadth and seriousness of these factors will surely make Turkey as much a reactor to the flow of events as their director. It won't be as easy as it was in an (HOI3-driven) war setting.
I would not trust that the Soviets, particularly whoever succeeds Uncle KJoe, to not start trying to pull off diplomatic fait accompli in nominal GNRs or Turkish puppets given even an appearance of federal weakness, regardless of whatever lies Kelebek is spinning about Comintern unity and togetherness. This could be a significant source of tension in the post-GW2 world, and given that the ATL Soviets have only a fraction of the resources and capability of the OTL United States (as in OTL), their ability to also maintain focus in India, China, and on supporting global communism may be diminished. The new world order may after a few decades resemble the Victorian-era Concert of Europe, albeit with the great powers dispersed globally rather than concentrated in Europe and North America.
Quite likely indeed. And not just in Europe and the Middle East! I have a hazy view of where things might end up, but it feels more like an Orwellian 1984 to me! Though probably not nearly so neatly divided and all-encompassing, perhaps. But the more diverse factional approach taken in HOI4 does come to mind ...
I second that obviously not self-serving propaganda.
Need a man (probably) who is popular with the military, has some military experience too, come to think, hasn't committed any personal crimes against the balkans or Italy, isn't overtly religious one way or another, popular in Turkey proper, acceptable to SITH and the...Well...to the wider UGNR and Comintern, let's say (so not overt nazis or flaming racists).
Not an easy list of traits and experiences.
However raises the spectre of allowing it in the wider UGNR after only a few years in, and if not, why not.
*cough*
Enjoy your beverage of choice, comarade.
I would never...directly...take over buffer states like that. Defeats the purpose of having them. They would of course be welcomed into the loving warming glow of communist brotherhood and raised up as indepednant members of the comintern.
You can't get more together than one union under me...the universal will of international workers.
Better for the world long term, perhaps. Though a little more chaotic and violent. Only maybe though. No us and no dominoes theory probably means at least a bit more no big wars etx.
We'll see how much the Soviets may try and how successful such efforts may be. As for the Turkish succession ... well, the flow of events will decide that, not a selection board for an executive position. Merit and suitability are likely to take a back seat to luck, popular political trends, raw power and opportunism. Anything could happen!
Probably not, but I imagine any loyal Soviet would love to see the puppet strings in Romania held by Comrade Secretary rather than Milli Sef.
Just ignore the bit in the fine print about the will being made manifest through demonic possession, I assume.
It would be an interesting test (were it not merely ATL) of whether nuclear weapons can prevent a world war, in the absence of the hegemonic structures of the post-war OTL, or would merely make the next world war rather more quick and deadly than the last. This presuming that a return to a "Concert" style of geopolitics would inevitably lead to a global conflict in the same way that the Victorian era (arguably) inevitably led up to the Great War.
Romania is indeed the jewel in the crown of Turkey's new sphere of interest. No doubt a tempting Silmaril Stalin would like to steal! I also plan to have an episode devoted purely to the state of play in the development of nuclear technology and progress towards the development of an atomic weapon. Of course, to date in this ATL no-one has developed them and the immediate driver of getting one to end the war is no longer there.
As privileged observers, our LNAEC inspectors will provide classified reports on where major powers may be up to in this regard. I also have in mind a way for letting any further development of them proceed organically, without me having to make it up. But more on that in later episode.
Of all of the current Turkish puppets, that's the one bar Italy that I can see actually getting fairly indepednat fairly soon, and staying that way. Having them as the third man in the balkans is fine by me.
As I see it, the buffer states should be as indepednatly comintern leaning towards pro Soviet, the balkans are turkey's mess that I want no part of, North Italy is a potent communist recruiting ground, south Italy is similar to the balkans in being turkey's problem, and I don't particularly care what happens to north Africa and the Middle East/persia...so long as they stick around in the comintern...moreso the latter of course for oil and Persian gulf reasons.
Things go wrong in the places I/wider comintern care about? Comintern shows up to help. Things go wrong in balkans/north Africa? Meh. Turkey could do with a distraction or six.
Each side will have its wishes about the European buffer states and the local inhabitants will also have their say. And who knows what other distractions may crop up to see this region becoming more of a backwater and less the focus of world tension than it was during the OTL Cold War. After all, it's not like they are the front line of a confrontation between quickly fallen-out wartime partners of convenience ... are they?
A gripping election-night drama that led to a knife-edge result! Very nicely done.
The key thing to take away I think is that although Dewey won the presidency and made gains, the Democrats retained slender majorities in the Senate and the House, which will make it hard for him to follow through on his agenda.
Thank you! And Dewey's agenda may not be that far apart from some on the Democrat side. Especially some of those southern conservatives, or the more robust internationalists wanting to see the US take a leading role on the world stage. And address the 'unfinished business' with Japan: who in this ATL never bombed Pearl Harbor and then gave back all the Pacific Islands they had occupied from the US, as well as most of the Allied occupied territory. How that business may be finished - hot war, cold war, or rapprochement - will be one of the key post-war drivers of the global strategic situation.
In summary, one presumes he will break away from the Comintern, re-engage with the U.K., engage constructively with Turkey and confront Japan, at least diplomatically. Not such a bad outcome from the British perspective - provided he has enough clout to deliver.
A very perceptive reading of the stated policy aims of the new President. It remains now to see how they fare with his own party factions, popular demands, the realities of dealing with Congress and of course the impact of international developments. To weather it well, Dewey will need all his reputed intellectual ability and diligence, and more political nous and better judgement than he showed in 1944 and 1948 OTL ...
Nice to see politics bringing people together rather than dividing for once. Think at this point just about everyone has declared victory for their cause with Dewey in the Oval Office.
It's not so much that everyone thinks Dewey is on their side, rather that Dewey (especially with an opposition Congress) is too weak to mount a serious threat diplomatically. American isolationism sounds good to everybody else in this timeline it seems.
And of course, Dewey will have to act in what he sees to be his own political but also the national self-interest. A tricky path to tread. If American isolationism sounds good to everyone else in the world (except one assumes the Rest of the West), it may just provoke one of those equal and opposite reactions. Or not.
Chapter 242: Japan and Asia – November 1944 to December 1945
Background: The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
On 1 August 1940, Japan had announced the creation of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GEACPS). The following members joined between its founding in 1940 and 1944:
Empire of Japan (30 November 1940)
Empire of Manchuria (30 November 1940) [Manchukuo]
Republic of China (Nanjing) (30 November 1940) [Japanese puppet state, not the KMT-run one]
Kingdom of Thailand (21 December 1941)
State of Burma (1 August 1943)
Republic of the Philippines (14 October 1943)
Provisional Government of Free India (21 October 1943)
Kingdom of Kampuchea (9 March 1944) [9 March 1945 in OTL]
Empire of Vietnam (11 March 1945) [11 March 1945 in OTL]
Kingdom of Luang Phrabang (8 April 1945) [Laos; 8 April 1945 in OTL]
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Japanese Government and External Relations in November 1944
The Japanese Government in November 1944 was headed Prime Minister Okada Keisuke. Like the Emperor, he was a member of the repressive paternal autocratic Control Clique, which commanded a clear majority of public support at the time – as far as that could be gauged. A collection of minor parties (some legal, some outlawed) made up a grab-bag and disunited opposition.
In the immediate post-war environment, Japan maintained fair relations with the recently restored provisional French right-wing government. Relations with Turkey were polite enough, the two never having actually fought each other directly in GW2 (other than chronic but futile Japanese-sponsored partisan uprisings in the Dodecanese Islands). Relations with the Soviets were distrustful, frosty with the UK and openly hostile with the US.
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Treaty of Geneva Outcomes
Following the signing of the Treaty of Geneva in November 1944 Japan, the Allies and the Comintern completed the various adjustments agreed.
Other than India, all these countries would remain part of the GEACPS in November 1944, with Mengukuo [Menjiang, an autonomous zone nominally within Wang Jingwei’s Chinese puppet regime from 1940] added as well as a separate state. Korea was advised it would remain under direct Japanese occupation but may eventually be considered as a candidate for membership. This was done mainly as a sop to placate rising Korean nationalism – some of it fostered by Communist elements thought to be ‘deniably’ sponsored as Soviet proxies.
Otherwise, occupied areas in India, Malaya and the Dutch East Indies were returned to Allied control, while all occupied areas of the Soviet Union were evacuated by Japanese troops.
The hostile peace that has held between Japan and Nationalist China over the last seven years continued. But this did not mean Chiang Kai-Shek had given up his aim of reuniting all of China – at that time still hopelessly divided – under Kuomintang control. The end of GW2 and the Geneva Treaty settlement were more the beginning of the next phase of Asian manoeuvring, rather than the start of a stable and peaceful period. In fact, the opposite was likely to be the case. But in the immediate post-war period, this would not take the form of war (or any serious diplomatic interaction) between Nationalist China and the Empire of Japan.
Mongolia, which at the time of the armistice was split between Soviet and Japanese occupation, nominally became an independent state, but both sides left their troops in place along the Line of Demarcation until longer term arrangements could be settled between the two powers, the issue not having been determined in Geneva. This would become a flashpoint for tension in coming years.
Asia after the November 1944 settlement that flowed from the Treaty of Geneva.
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Japan and Asia: Key Events to December 1945
Events in the rest of unoccupied China, India and Allied territories in Malaya and the Dutch East Indies will be dealt with separately, in subsequent episodes.
On 9 November 1944, Japan offered its guarded congratulations to US President-elect Dewey and simultaneously announced the formal dissolution of the old wartime Axis faction. Japan would henceforth be the self-appointed leader of its own faction, the GEACPS.
1935 propaganda poster of Manchukuo promoting harmony between Japanese, Chinese, and Manchu. The caption, written from right to left, says: "With the help of Japan, China, and Manchukuo, the world can be in peace." The flags shown are, right to left: the "Five Races Under One Union" flag of China; the flag of Japan; the flag of Manchukuo.
From Wikipedia: The intent and practical implementation of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere varied widely depending on the group and government department involved. Policy theorists who conceived it, as well as the vast majority of the Japanese population at large, saw it for its pan-Asian ideals of freedom and independence from Western colonial rule.
In practice, however, it was frequently used by militarists and nationalists, who saw an effective policy vehicle through which to strengthen Japan's position and advance its dominance within Asia. Which of these two narratives (if either) might dominate in the post-war period remained an open book.
Under the guidance of Hồ Chí Minh, Võ Nguyên Giáp was given the task of establishing the brigades of the Vietnam Propaganda Liberation Army (PAVN), which was established on 22 December 1944.
The first formation was made up of just thirty-one men and three women, armed with two revolvers, seventeen rifles, one light machine gun, and fourteen breech-loading flintlocks. It fought the PAVN’s first ever engagement at the Battles of Khai Phat and Na Ngan against Japanese soldiers in late 1944.
US OSS agents had provided ammunition, logistic intelligence and equipment and helped train the soldiers who would later become the backbone of the Vietnamese military which fought the Japanese occupiers.
General Võ Nguyên Giáp at the PAVN's establishment in December 1944.
On 5 April 45, the Soviet Union, confirmed it would not consider a Japanese proposal to revive the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact of April 1940. They explained the idea would remain “under review” given the failure of both sides to come to an agreement over the future of Mongolia. That country would remain split into North (Soviet controlled) and South (Japanese controlled) Mongolia for the foreseeable future.
The Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact, also known as the Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact, was a non-aggression pact between the Soviet Union and the Empire of Japan signed on April 13, 1940 [1941 in OTL] (pictured above), a year after the conclusion of the Soviet-Japanese Border War. Japan considered it to have been abrogated a few months later when the Soviets joined Turkey's declaration of war on Germany on 1 June 1940 and responded to a request from Hitler by attacking the Soviet Union.
This became one of a number of causes of increased (resumed) friction between the two former enemies and staunch ideological adversaries in the years immediately following the peace settlement. The ‘realpolitik’ working relationship developed between them at the Geneva Peace Conference was quickly breaking down under the pressure of breaking events in a turbulent post-GW2 Asia.
The same day, Okada Keisuke, seen as an architect of the temporary rapprochement with the Soviets, saw his position as untenable and resigned as Prime Minister of Japan. He would be replaced two days later by the 77-year-old Baron Admiral Kantarō Suzuki, a loyal but far right-wing Imperialist who would be given secret instructions by Emperor Hirohito, who stated that "I desire that concrete plans to end hostility with Turkey and the West, unhampered by existing policy, be speedily studied and that efforts made to implement them."
Baron Kantarō Suzuki (b.18 January 1868) was an admiral in the Imperial Japanese Navy, member and leader of the Imperial Rule Assistance Association. He became Prime Minister on 7 April 1945.
Suzuki would announce his plans to the Cabinet on 22 June 1945 to forge a closer diplomatic relationship with the Turkey (UGNR) and its Bucharest Pact bloc, with a specific remit to secure all-important oil supplies. Simultaneously, Japan would reach out to both the US (now under the Presidency of Thomas Dewey) and the (still) Churchill-led UK and other Allied powers to seek closer diplomatic and trade ties.
Hirohito had chosen Suzuki because he thought he might have the imperialist credentials to carry off this policy change. But the policy was opposed strongly by the military faction of the cabinet, who desired to continue the confrontation with the US and the West and prepare for the ‘next war’ with them. Part of this faction attempted to assassinate Suzuki twice in on 15 August 1945.
The various initial responses to these overtures will be dealt with in the commentaries of those nations, which will follow. Suffice it to say for now that the Japanese envoys would at least be listened to with interest.
The Chinese Communists resumed their insurgency against the Japanese with the Opening Campaign on 10 August 1945. Operations would ramp up during the latter months of 1945, with Mao’s troops – reportedly with clandestine support from the Soviets – scoring a series of victories in occupied China, especially near their old strongholds around Yan’an.
Chinese Communist troops attack Japanese positions, August 1945.
The August Revolution began on 14 August 1945 when the Viet Minh launched an uprising against Japanese puppet rule in Vietnam. They made significant gains against the forces of the puppet Empire of Vietnam, who would soon begin calling for direct Japanese troop support.
Bảo Đại (b. 22 October 1913) was the 13th emperor of the ruling Nguyễn dynasty of Vietnam. He has served as the Japanese puppet ruler of Vietnam since 11 March 1944.
The Democratic Republic of Vietnam was proclaimed on 2 September 1945 when revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh declared independence from ‘Japanese overlordship’ exercised through their ‘Imperialist puppets in Hanoi’. They did so with covert but separately supplied support from the Soviets, the US and France - the former recent colonial masters. The Western support was one of the reasons Japan was so keen to change the direction of their relations with the West through diplomatic engagement. The liberation war in Vietnam formally began on 14 September 1945.
Hồ Chí Minh (b. 19 May 1890), leader of the Việt Minh independence movement from 1941 onward.
Against this backdrop of increasing regional challenges, Emperor Hirohito personally opened a new session of the Japanese Diet on 4 September 1945 with an appeal to his people to "win the confidence of the world" and "establish firmly a peaceful state."
Emperor Hirohito declares the new session of the Diet open on 4 September 1945.
More security concerns soon emerged, however, when Kim Il-sung arrived at Port Wonsan on 19 September 1945 and began to organise the Communist Party of Korea, which was formally founded a few weeks later.
Kim Il-sung (b. 15 April 1912), founds the Communist Party of Korea in October 1945.
Baron Kijūrō Shidehara (b. 13 September 1872) became Prime Minister of Japan on 9 October 1945. Suzuki had been replaced as he was seen as too tied in with the far-right wing Imperial Rule Assistance Association and had overseen an upswing in regional insurgencies he seemed unable to respond to effectively.
Another new Japanese PM, Kijūrō Shidehara.
Shidehara was a pre–GW2 Japanese diplomat and politician and was a leading proponent of the ‘peace lobby’. He was appointed to head up the diplomatic outreach to the the US and the West, largely because of his pro-American reputation.
But in this ATL he is not quite so pacifist and does not make any proposal to introduce Article 9 of the OTL Constitution of Japan, a provision which limits Japan's ability to wage war.
On 29 December 1945, Koreans (it was unclear whether it was spontaneous or orchestrated by either Nationalists or Kim’s Communists) attacked Japanese soldiers in Seoul to protest the administrative decision to wait as long as five years to restore Korean independence.
Shidehara and the Japanese Imperial HQ would have to decide how to respond to all these provocations in the new year of 1946 while fighting a serious guerrilla war against Mao’s reactivated and increasingly successful Communist forces.
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Summary
As 1945 ended, parts of the Japanese occupied territories in China and Korea and their puppet state in Vietnam in particular were coming under increasing pressure from armed Nationalists, mainly Communist insurgencies. Japan needed to secure the oil resources their wartime efforts had failed to gain and alleviate the increasing economic and diplomatic isolation they had encountered following the Geneva Peace Conference.
With a significant Communist insurgency in occupied China, a new one gathering pace in the Empire of Vietnam, low-scale but growing unrest in Korea, confrontation with the Soviets over the Line of Demarcation in Mongolia and the need to man the long Manchurian border with the Soviets, the Japanese military risked becoming significantly over-stretched at a time of oil shortages, trade isolation and economic stagnation.
A permanent seat on the LNSC with veto powers was useful, but it was essentially defensive in nature. It could not enforce compliance within their own sphere of influence, action against insurgencies supported by shadowy foreign interests, improve trade ties or relax diplomatic tension in a world that had no love for Japan after their Fascist aggression and imperialism before and during GW2.
On 1 August 1940, Japan had announced the creation of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GEACPS). The following members joined between its founding in 1940 and 1944:
Both of those will be issues...though if Japan negotiates well, Soviet reaproachment is possible. The Soviets want a simple deal in Asia, given how a lot of their focus is in Europe...however that's in terms of economics. Militarily speaking, the Russians absolutely can stomp Japan flat if they really decide to be stubborn...
This was done mainly as a sop to placate rising Korean nationalism – some of it fostered by Communist elements thought to be ‘deniably’ sponsored as Soviet proxies.
I completely forgot about them. Oh yes, the Soviets actually have a ton of ins into Asia. Ho chi min probably not, he went asking for American help first...but actually quite liked communism (seemingly) after seeking an ally of convenience.
Mongolia, which at the time of the armistice was split between Soviet and Japanese occupation, nominally became an independent state, but both sides left their troops in place along the Line of Demarcation until longer term arrangements could be settled between the two powers, the issue not having been determined in Geneva. This would become a flashpoint for tension in coming years.
Surely Japan would back down from that...Mongolia is Russian clay, has been since before the war and the only real thing in the entire region Russia would be certain to riot over if Japan stayed. They couldn't be that stupid, right?
On 5 April 45, the Soviet Union, confirmed it would not consider a Japanese proposal to revive the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact of April 1940. They explained the idea would remain “under review” given the failure of both sides to come to an agreement over the future of Mongolia. That country would remain split into North (Soviet controlled) and South (Japanese controlled) Mongolia for the foreseeable future
The Chinese Communists resumed their insurgency against the Japanese with the Opening Campaign on 10 August 1945. Operations would ramp up during the latter months of 1945, with Mao’s troops – reportedly with clandestine support from the Soviets – scoring a series of victories in occupied China, especially near their old strongholds around Yan’an
Not sure they'll be as succesful as OTL without the Soviet red army conquering a lot of China for them, but Mao was very good at fighting the Japanese, so if it comes down to it, I think he can carve a decent size state from this.
The August Revolution began on 14 August 1945 when the Viet Minh launched an uprising against Japanese puppet rule in Vietnam. They made significant gains against the forces of the puppet Empire of Vietnam, who would soon begin calling for direct Japanese troop support.
All systems go on multiple proxy wars at once. And the Japanese have to man the huge Soviet border, rebuild their navy and keep an eye out for the amercian and British War hawks.
More security concerns soon emerged, however, when Kim Il-sung arrived at Port Wonsan on 19 September 1945 and began to organise the Communist Party of Korea, which was formally founded a few weeks later.
Hehehe. Korea is going to be the big one that takes up the Japanese regimes time and effort. Simply put, they cannot afford the prestige hit (or strategic issues) that losing Korea to communism would bring. Vietnam might get off a little lucky if the Japanese are smart enough to pull out and instead smash the Koreans down before rounding on China.
If they try fighting all three of these enemies at the same time though, they'll tank their economy and miltiary. Nothing will be achieved but a lot of death and damage on all sides.
Japan has a lot going for it but its going to have to work hard to keep any of it.
This seems to be about what one would expect from post-GW2 Japan. The military will soon find its hands full dealing with the numerous problems they have conquered, which should satisfy the needs of the military to feel important while limiting them from getting into any serious trouble by starting something against one of the major powers. How many gains Japan can actually hold onto will of course remain to be seen.
For once I agree with TBC, I don't see how Japan can expect to hold onto half of Mongolia. Best outcome there would be leveraging against settling some border questions in Manchuria/Transamur in a favorable manner.
As far as the wider world goes, I expect diplomacy with the majors will be frosty for some time yet, but sooner or later the desire to oppose Communism will lead the West to seek out an Eastern ally...or at least cordial relations, on the part of the warmonger USA.
Under the guidance of Hồ Chí Minh, Võ Nguyên Giáp was given the task of establishing the brigades of the Vietnam Propaganda Liberation Army (PAVN), which was established on 22 December 1944.
The first formation was made up of just thirty-one men and three women, armed with two revolvers, seventeen rifles, one light machine gun, and fourteen breech-loading flintlocks. It fought the PAVN’s first ever engagement at the Battles of Khai Phat and Na Ngan against Japanese soldiers in late 1944.
US OSS agents had provided ammunition, logistic intelligence and equipment and helped train the soldiers who would later become the backbone of the Vietnamese military which fought the Japanese occupiers.
For once I agree with TBC, I don't see how Japan can expect to hold onto half of Mongolia. Best outcome there would be leveraging against settling some border questions in Manchuria/Transamur in a favorable manner.
They really should. It would have bought them a bit of time to try and secure south east Asia before the communists in China got fully armed. As is, they have an even larger Soviet border to patrol, in an area they don't even want, where the locals are even more hostile than usual.
As far as the wider world goes, I expect diplomacy with the majors will be frosty for some time yet, but sooner or later the desire to oppose Communism will lead the West to seek out an Eastern ally...or at least cordial relations, on the part of the warmonger USA.
THAT depends on the Japanese military conduct. If they continue to do the things they did throughout the 30s and 40s, the west is going to have a hard time dealing with them in any way due to popular and political condemnation.
THAT depends on the Japanese military conduct. If they continue to do the things they did throughout the 30s and 40s, the west is going to have a hard time dealing with them in any way due to popular and political condemnation.
Given the long and storied history of outstanding military conduct in the West, I suspect that if the West wants a Japanese ally they will be more than happy to overlook quite a lot of outstanding military conduct as long as it is convenient for them. And then later once the Communists inevitably collapse in on themselves (not to make a statement, rather assuming our esteemed authAAR hews relatively close to OTL happenings as he has indicated), such outstanding conduct can become a pressure point the West pushes on whenever convenient to try and get something out of their "allies".
Let's all keep in mind that this is the pre-Internet era, so news of such outstanding conduct getting out is a less probable and slower process than in the modern day and age, and even then as we have seen in the modern day and age many of the population simply do not care if it does not affect them personally, such is the world we inhabit.
Given the long and storied history of outstanding military conduct in the West, I suspect that if the West wants a Japanese ally they will be more than happy to overlook quite a lot of outstanding military conduct as long as it is convenient for them. And then later once the Communists inevitably collapse in on themselves (not to make a statement, rather assuming our esteemed authAAR hews relatively close to OTL happenings as he has indicated), such outstanding conduct can become a pressure point the West pushes on whenever convenient to try and get something out of their "allies".
Let's all keep in mind that this is the pre-Internet era, so news of such outstanding conduct getting out is a less probable and slower process than in the modern day and age, and even then as we have seen in the modern day and age many of the population simply do not care if it does not affect them personally, such is the world we inhabit.
That could work...unfortunately Japan has been at war with the british empire and US for some time and actually invaded Australiasia and occupied some of it. Can you begin to imagine not just the OTL horrors being published by the returning allied troops but all the TTL stuff Japan got up to in actual 'white western country' terirotry?
At the very least, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand and everywhere else that felt the touch of Japanese imperialism is going to very ardently against the empire, who is still in power in Tokyo.
This is only going to get worse for Japan as they have to contend with Vietnam and Korea, who will be getting a bunch of help from all these nations.
Sure, a strong unified US government had and will continue to back horrible people and dictators and regimees when it suits them, but this is a very divided amercia up to and including Congress, which is also in the process of hearing war vets horror stories about what rhe Japanese did to them and what they're doing now to the rest of East Asia.
Due to how this last member of the axis was not disarmed, defeated, changed government or altered in any way, they are at present 'the' evil in the world, and every other power on the planet has at least 'some' fairly major beef with them.
Add to that the domestic unrest from Japanese public tired of the military's crap, tons of recours issues, war exhaustion (for them, they've been fighting nonstop since 1933 and still are on the mainland)...Well...Japan is screwed.
