Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 262: The Western Hemisphere – July to December 1947

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Palestine

In February 1947 British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin had announced that Britain had given up trying to solve the Palestine problem and would put the issue before the League of Nations, where an 11-nation LN General Assembly committee of inquiry was formally established on 15 May.

This did not stop the violence in Palestine, with 35 Zionist leaders in Palestine were detained for terrorist activities in August 1947. In September, Palestine Arab Higher Committee spokesman Husayn al-Khalidi declared that a separate Arab state in a partitioned Palestine would not be economically or politically viable, predicting that partition would result in "border incidents everywhere" and could lead to a tragic "crusade between Jewry and Islam."

Husayn Fakhri al-Khalidi (b. 17 January 1895) joined the reformed Arab Higher Committee in 1945, becoming its secretary in 1946. [In OTL he would become Prime Minister of Jordan in 1957.]​

On 26 September UK Colonial Secretary Arthur Creech Jones announced Britain's intention to abandon its mandate over Palestine and pull out of all its military and government personnel at an early date, whether or not the United Nations reached a settlement agreeable to both Arabs and Jews.

The Jewish Agency for Palestine gave conditional approval on 2 October to a plan to partition Palestine into a Jewish and Arab state. The next day, Palestinian Arabs staged a peaceful one-day general strike to protest the plan to partition the territory.

At the League of Nations, on 7 October Pakistan (without any hint of irony) became the first member of the LN to line up with the Arab states in opposition to the Palestine partition plan. But the next day, the Soviet bloc threw its support behind the partition. A few days later, Turkey also objected to the partition – a point of friction in the normally cosy USSR-UGNR diplomatic relationship.

Despite the objections of Turkey, Pakistan and a minority of other LN members, on 29 November the LN General Assembly adopted a resolution recommending the adoption and implementation of the League of Nations Partition Plan for Palestine.

The Partition Plan for Palestine was a proposal by the League of Nations, which recommended a partition of Mandatory Palestine at the end of the British Mandate. On 29 November 1947, the LN General Assembly adopted the Plan as Resolution 181.​

The resolution recommended the creation of independent Arab and Jewish States and a Special International Regime for the city of Jerusalem. The Partition Plan, a four-part document attached to the resolution, provided for the termination of the Mandate, the progressive withdrawal of British armed forces and the delineation of boundaries between the two States and Jerusalem.

The partition plan was accepted by Jewish Agency for Palestine and by most Zionist factions. But the Arab Higher Committee, the Arab League and other Arab leaders and governments rejected it and were unwilling to accept any form of territorial division, arguing that it violated the principles of national self-determination in the LN Charter which granted people the right to decide their own destiny. They announced their intention to take all necessary measures to prevent the implementation of the resolution. Implementation of the plan remained in limbo.

On 8 December nations of the Arab League meeting in Cairo promised "immediate measures" to help Palestinian Arabs resist partition. On 11 December Britain confirmed that it would end its mandate over Palestine on 15 May 1948, irrespective the acceptance or otherwise of the LN plan. Irgun bomb attacks continued in Jerusalem and Jaffa and on 21 December Arab People's Army leader Fawzi al-Qawuqji announced an Arab plan to gain military control of Palestine and set up an all-Arab state. The inter-communal violence continued to escalate across Palestine as the year ended.

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The United States

The Vandenberg Plan was first announced in May 1947, its aim to aid non-Communist European countries rebuild after GW2. This meant it was open to the UGNR and its satellite states in the Bucharest Pact who could, if they desired, explore participation in the Plan. The implications would soon be explored as the US reached out to Europe in the second half of the year.

In domestic matters, positioning for the 1948 Presidential election had already begun earlier in the year. Henry A. Wallace had completed a nationwide speaking tour and indicated that he was ready to run as a third-party candidate in the 1948 election.

On 9 September Ex-governor of Minnesota Harold Stassen announced his candidacy for the 1948 Republican presidential nomination, a pointed challenge to the incumbent Republican President Thomas Dewey.

Harold Edward Stassen (b. 13 April 1907) was the 25th governor of Minnesota and would become a leading challenger to President Dewey as a candidate for the Republican nomination for president of the United States in 1948.​

Henry A. Wallace formally announced on 29 December that he did intend to run as a Progressive third-party candidate for president in 1948, pledging a "positive peace program of abundance and security, not scarcity and war."

The US had completed its theoretical research for the flying bomb in April 1947 and began researching strategic rocket theory. But an operational rocket model would not be developed before 1948 at the earliest. Meanwhile, atomic bomb research had been completed on 21 June, and the first device slowly began to be assembled. By the end of the year, the first device was 60% completed at a rate of 10% per month. The next level of nuclear bomb research was due for completion on 10 Jan 1948 and would double monthly progress to 20%.

The first US A-Bomb being assembled at the Los Alamos test site, December 1947.

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The Western Alliance

In March 1947, France and the United Kingdom had signed the Treaty of Dunkirk, a pact of alliance and mutual assistance and many, including former Prime Minister Winston Churchill, had been advocating for a "united Western Europe".

In this context, the Vandenberg Plan was seen by France in particular as another potential source of European ‘togetherness’, underwritten by much-needed US investment. For example, France hoped to receive US support for rebuilding their industrial base and armed forces.

A conference in Paris between France, the UK and the USSR on 2 July broke up after the Soviets repudiated the Vandenberg Plan, which Britain and France accepted. Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov warned that Europe would be split into eastern and western blocs if Britain and France acted alone. His UK counterpart Ernest Bevin declared that Britain had faced threats before and would not be deterred.

The UGNR also attended this major power conference, but continued to hedge its bets on the plan, while Bucharest Pact members were neither encouraged nor discouraged from exploring their options. Following Molotov's departure, Britain and France invited all the non-Communist nations of Europe to Paris for a new conference on implementing the Vandenberg Plan.

​

Interestingly, the Czech cabinet voted on 7 July to accept Vandenberg Plan aid, though the rest of the independent Bucharest Pact countries held off for now. In part because the formal funding model hadn’t even been confirmed and announced yet!

There would be external and internal political pressure exerted on the forward-leaning Czech Government for the rest of 1947 from both Communists and pro-Turkish nationalist elements within the parliament, leading to an increasing sense of crisis for the Western-leaning Czech leadership. On 26 July France's National Assembly approved French participation in the Vandenberg Plan.

In the UK, the Atomic Energy Research Establishment had moved the construction of new first British nuclear reactor, to a facility outside Coventry – a location seen to be a little more defensible than Oxford. This facility was completed on 10 September 1947.

The GLEEP (Graphite Low Energy Experimental Pile) under construction at Coventry in the UK, mid-1947.​

As soon as the reactor was operational, UK nuclear scientists began research into the design of the first British nuclear weapon, which they anticipated should be completed in March 1948, after which device assembly could be commenced.

During a press conference on 12 November, French President Henri-Honoré Giraud [de Gaulle in OTL] called for an alliance of France, Britain and the United States to stem world communism and promote the reconstruction of Europe. Asked if he believed whether a Third Great War was in the making, he replied: "It would be crazy not to look facts in the face and not to keep our eyes open to realities. A new war is a possibility. It is only a possibility, but we must face that possibility and prepare for it."

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The Warsaw Pact and the Szklarska Poręba Conference

After rejecting the US’s ‘capitalistic economic imperialist’ Vandenberg Plan in July, Stalin and Molotov set about to ban it within the Soviet Bloc (the European Warsaw Pact nations of Germany, Poland, Denmark and Finland) and advocate against it in other European countries where local Communist parties governed - as in Spain - or were strong, both in the West and within Turkey’s Bucharest Pact.

Meanwhile, there were more practical and immediate challenges that transcended borders and politics. On 24 August European officials reported that a large part of the continent was experiencing its worst drought in ten years and that near-famine conditions would exist over the winter if rain did not fall soon. The situation was particularly serious in Germany, which was going through its worst drought in 50 years.

This was leading to even worse disenchantment and unrest in the former Reich, with increasing instances of minor acts of sabotage, disobedience, low productivity, demonstrations and general sullenness. Nothing overtly rebellious, but rumours of various underground organisations of various stripes, from neo-Nazi, to nationalist, democratic through to anti-Soviet socialists (some even referring to themselves as the ‘New Mensheviks’) were increasing.

One group, apparently home grown, yearned for the days of the short-lived ‘Beck Republic’ under Turkish supervision that had existed between the German surrender in May 1944 and the Geneva Peace Conference that November. But no S.I.T.H. involvement was detected.

A displaced family in Berlin, July 1947. Little had been done to rebuild the devastated German capital, food was scarce with drought and Soviet confiscation of agricultural produce and a large part of what had been left of Germany’s industrial base pushing the country towards a humanitarian crisis.​

Tensions also simmered in Poland, with a military court in Kraków sentencing nine men to death and seven others to long prison terms on 10 September for 'conducting espionage on behalf of the United States, Britain and the Polish government-in-exile'. Separately, isolated bands of the so-called “Cursed Soldiers” of the anti-Communist Polish underground still carried out occasional ambushes and attacks on Soviet and especially – where they could – NKVD units and facilities.

“Cursed Soldiers” of the Polish Resistance. Some were still operating in defiance of the Soviet occupation in the second half of 1947.​

In Denmark, the population was quiet but clearly chafed under the strictures of the Moscow-imposed Communist regime that kept them roped into the Warsaw Pact. Smuggling and infiltration by sea from the West and sympathetic Scandinavian governments in Norway and Sweden were difficult for the Soviets to control.

Stalin and Molotov’s counter to the Vandenberg Plan also recognised the geopolitical changes that had followed the GW2 settlement and post-war developments. Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, called the conference in response to divergences among communist governments and non-government communist parties outside the Warsaw Pact on whether or not to seek Vandenberg Plan assistance from the US.

Representatives from a range of European Communist parties (from the Soviet bloc but also including Spain, France and Italy and some Bucharest Pact countries) met in the Polish resort town of Szklarska Poręba on 22 September for a conference aimed at coordinating their activities more closely.

Stalin and Molotov lead delegates to the Szklarska Poręba Conference through the Polish resort town’s streets on 22 September 1947. The speech Stalin would give to the delegates would reverberate throughout the Communist bloc and around the world.​

The Forum opened with a keynote address by Stalin himself. In it, he dropped the bombshell that the Comintern was to be dissolved! Stalin had considered doing this back in May 1943, but had kept it going after the tide of the war had turned. It had also provided a useful symbolic umbrella for the unlikely wartime alliance with Turkey and the US but neither of them could have been described as fellow communists at the time. And certainly not now, the US having already left the grouping after the end of the war and Dewey’s election.

Part of Stalin’s prepared speech declared that:

The historical role of the Communist International, organised in 1919 as a result of the political collapse of the overwhelming majority of the old pre-war workers' parties, consisted in that it preserved the teachings of Marxism from vulgarisation and distortion by opportunist elements of the labour movement. But long before the war it became increasingly clear that, to the extent that the internal as well as the international situation of individual countries became more complicated, the solution of the problems of the labour movement of each individual country through the medium of some international centre would meet with insuperable obstacles.​

Stalin then ‘asked’ the attending delegates to:

... dissolve the Communist International as a guiding centre of the international labour movement, releasing sections of the Communist International from the obligations ensuing from the constitution and decisions of the Congresses of the Communist International.​

But Stalin did not intend to leave the field vacant for the West and others to occupy. A new organisation would be formed to succeed the old. On 27 September the Szklarska Poręba Conference concluded with the founding the Information Bureau of the Communist and Workers' Parties, commonly known as Cominform. It was to be the official forum of the international communist movement, a co-ordination body of Marxist-Leninist communist parties in Europe, formed in part as a replacement of the Communist International.

The new Cominform logo.​

The Cominform was founded with 11 members: the ruling Communist Parties of the Soviet Union, Germany, Poland, Denmark, Finland and Spain. Representatives also attended from the Communist Parties of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, France and Italy.

The catchily titled “For a Lasting Peace, for a People’s Democracy”, the official publication of the Cominform. Perse would have winced and fetched her easel to do a brainstorm for a better title than that!

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The Soviets cracked down further in Soviet occupied Germany when they began a purge of non-communist officials on 29 October. The winter of 1947-48 soon followed and, while not as bitter as that of the previous year, the accumulation of hunger, followed by drought, all overlaid with continued Soviet oppression was driving many parts of the German population to desperation. The ‘Hungry Winter’ of 1947-48 saw some begin to die of hunger or as a result of a lack of proper housing and fuel for heating.

The ‘Hungry Winter’ of 1947-48 in Germany was a miserable one for many in the former Reich.​

By the end of 1947, the Soviet-run German nuclear program had completed four bombs with another one 20% completed, with 30% move finished every month at the current rate. The Soviets had also restarted their own research, wanting to have a fully self-reliant capability with no need for the German scientists. They finished the second level of civil nuclear research on 21 August and would finish the next phase in early 1948. They already had an operational nuclear reactor constructed during the war in Alma Ata.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

This was a direct take from OTL and I agree, a mistake. And something that Russia would get wrong again re Korea and the UN later in OTL.

You'd hope they'd learn from this. However...seems not.

But the next day, the Soviet bloc threw its support behind the partition. A few days later, Turkey also objected to the partition – a point of friction in the normally cosy USSR-UGNR diplomatic relationship.

See, this would be a perfect time to be 'convinced' by Turkey to support them, in engage for something else later. The society don't really have a stake in this one, provided the west doesn't get a base there (which it won't if fhe Arabs run it).

...

Stalin continues to run my union into the ground. Disappointing but not unexpected.

 

[SSmith]

The whole state became part of India while local unrest simmered among the significant Muslim population for the rest of 1947, with the occasional outbreak of communal violence.

The Indians were soon ready to go and crossed the border on 6 August. Mysore was quickly annexed when no resistance was offered, with many Hindus coming out in to welcome the incoming troops. The Maharaja was arrested and would eventually be sent into exile.

So far, so good in Kashmir, and Hyderabad's position looks hopeless now Mysore has been annexed with the minimum of fuss.

On 21 July the Dutch, claiming violations of the Linggadjati Agreement, began what was termed a "police action" and launched Operation Product against the Republic of Indonesia to occupy large parts of Java and Sumatra.

In response, the British government suspended all military aid to the Netherlands on 30 July.

International reaction to the Dutch actions was largely negative. Neighbouring Australia and newly independent India were particularly active in supporting the Republic's cause in the LN, as were the Soviet Union and, most significantly, the United States.

An unfortunate course of action that has left the Dutch almost completely isolated. The sooner they look for a diplomatic exit, the better.

LN-sponsored negotiations to hammer out a new agreement continued for the rest of 1947.

Then on 23 September the LN General Assembly (which was of course not subject to any P5 veto) overrode Soviet and Japanese objections to include the question of Korean independence on its agenda.

The League of Nations is fast becoming the arbiter-of-last-resort for a host of regional conflicts around the world. Unfortunately, with the P5 each having their own agenda, I don't hold out that much hope for tangible results.

By mid-November, when the weather was turning and both sides began to hunker down for winter, much of Shanxi had been taken by Chiang, including the capital Ya’an. In occupied China, the Japanese had marginally rolled some of Mao’s summer gains, but had reserved their strongest efforts for the areas of southern Mengukuo Mao had been controlling, while also putting down localised outbreaks in some part of Manchukuo.

The Chinese Communists were on the brink of reverting to a fully guerrilla campaign, as holding ground and running a formal state apparatus under these twin pressures was proving untenable.

Caught between a powerful Chinese state and the IJA, the odds look to be very much against Mao in this timeline. I imagine Chiang will prevail in the short term and his KMT government will survive over the medium.

In February 1947 British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin had announced that Britain had given up trying to solve the Palestine problem and would put the issue before the League of Nations, where an 11-nation LN General Assembly committee of inquiry was formally established on 15 May.

Despite the objections of Turkey, Pakistan and a minority of other LN members, on 29 November the LN General Assembly adopted a resolution recommending the adoption and implementation of the League of Nations Partition Plan for Palestine.

Britain failed to handle this situation, and with so much opposition to the partition plan from key players, so too has the League of Nations.

A conference in Paris between France, the UK and the USSR on 2 July broke up after the Soviets repudiated the Vandenberg Plan, which Britain and France accepted.

Not surprising to see the Soviets rejecting a plan that explictly excluded them!

Interestingly, the Czech cabinet voted on 7 July to accept Vandenberg Plan aid, though the rest of the independent Bucharest Pact countries held off for now.

Turkish participation would not be well received by Stalin and I'm sure İnönü is well aware of that. Much depends on whether he is prepared to break faith with Moscow on this? Otherwise, where the Czechs lead, others may well follow.

 

[Midnite Duke]

Palestine may set new records for border gore. I expect that 1948 will see a battle between the Arabs and the Zionists. Unless U.S. intervenes, the border will soon look better. I am waiting for German students to accidentally set off a nuclear bomb in downtown Moscow or St. Petersburg. Thanks

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Caught between a powerful Chinese state and the IJA, the odds look to be very much against Mao in this timeline. I imagine Chiang will prevail in the short term and his KMT government will survive over the medium.

Thing is, none of Chiang's OTL problems have been solved. He's still seen as a weak, incompetent war leader who was not very good at fighting the Japanese. He's still seen as a bit of a puppet for foreign interests, indeed, even worse, he's directly negotiating with evil Japan whilst they still occupy parts of China. And he has no narrative to compete with the communists still, who have been fighting the Japanese well, who have got the support of the peasants, and who are united under a strong power structure.

Once Japan leaves and it becomes a straight civil war, I don't think the nationalists will win easily, if at all given their historical ineptness.

Turkish participation would not be well received by Stalin and I'm sure İnönü is well aware of that. Much depends on whether he is prepared to break faith with Moscow on this? Otherwise, where the Czechs lead, others may well follow.

Funnily enough, the Czechs voted in the communists all by themsevles, or so it seems, in OTL, so here, I wouldn't take them to be so willing to get in bed with the amercians, even if they do take their money.

Palestine may set new records for border gore.

Yeah, this definitely isn't going to work.

 

[Wraith11B]

I can't understand why they didn't push for a federalist state in Palestine. A unified central government for diplomacy, taxes, and defense, and provincial governments for local affairs... Rotating premiers appointed by the upper house of the legislature. Everyone gets something, no one gets everything.

 

[diskoerekto]

Despite the objections of Turkey, Pakistan and a minority of other LN members, on 29 November the LN General Assembly adopted a resolution recommending the adoption and implementation of the League of Nations Partition Plan for Palestine.

this plan doesn't create a viable Palestine as an independent entity, it may only work if the northern part is seceded to Lebanon, eastern part to Jordan and western part to Egypt.

The partition plan was accepted by Jewish Agency for Palestine and by most Zionist factions. But the Arab Higher Committee, the Arab League and other Arab leaders and governments rejected it and were unwilling to accept any form of territorial division, arguing that it violated the principles of national self-determination in the LN Charter which granted people the right to decide their own destiny. They announced their intention to take all necessary measures to prevent the implementation of the resolution. Implementation of the plan remained in limbo.

my suggestion at least appeases 3 Arab nations by giving them some territory so the league may come to accept the proposal. They don't know yet but failure to agree at any one thing at this point will bring a century of violence.

After rejecting the US’s ‘capitalistic economic imperialist’ Vandenberg Plan in July, Stalin and Molotov set about to ban it within the Soviet Bloc (the European Warsaw Pact nations of Germany, Poland, Denmark and Finland) and advocate against it in other European countries where local Communist parties governed - as in Spain - or were strong, both in the West and within Turkey’s Bucharest Pact.

we'll be wary of any political strings attached, and will fiercely protect local production capacity of strategic stuff, but good relations with USA and free things coming from them is nothing to turn our backs on. we won't encourage other nations to go ahead, but if they do we will go together with them and have more saying in what is the program.

The Cominform was founded with 11 members: the ruling Communist Parties of the Soviet Union, Germany, Poland, Denmark, Finland and Spain. Representatives also attended from the Communist Parties of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, France and Italy.

let's also send representatives. we won't be missing any parties in any neighborhood.

I can't understand why they didn't push for a federalist state in Palestine. A unified central government for diplomacy, taxes, and defense, and provincial governments for local affairs... Rotating premiers appointed by the upper house of the legislature. Everyone gets something, no one gets everything.

that's more or less Lebanon, while better than how Israel-Palestine turned out to be, it's still not a very ideal solution. A fully secular and decentralized state would've worked better maybe.

 

[Bullfilter]

So, as I plot the next Turkish Cabinet agenda with MAJGEN Diskoerekto, comment feedback for the last chapter follows.

Also, marking the 3rd Anniversary of the 1944 Geneva Conference and Treaty (and as we approach the traditional in-game end point of 1 January 1948) I hereby invite any commentAARs, especially the main representatives at the Geneva Peace Conference (reminder below) to make any in-character (or indeed OOC) reflections on how things went down then; what then transpired in the ATL narrative aftermath; and whether in retrospect you think the impact of outcomes in Geneva ended up being better, worse or around about the same as you might have expected.

Soviet Union @TheButterflyComposer
UK, Dominions and Minor Allies @SSmith
USA @Wraith11B
Japan @nuclearslurpee
Turkey @diskoerekto
Germany (DDR) @roverS3
France @Midnite Duke
Poland @RustyHunter
Spain @DensleyBlair

And now onto the feedback on the last tranche.

You'd hope they'd learn from this. However...seems not.

Yeah ... nah! Why would he break the habits of a lifetime?

See, this would be a perfect time to be 'convinced' by Turkey to support them, in engage for something else later. The society don't really have a stake in this one, provided the west doesn't get a base there (which it won't if fhe Arabs run it).

I'm not sure why the Soviets were in favour of the partition in OTL (don't have the time to run down every loose end and maintain schedule and sanity). But given the partition plan is looking as shaky in TTL as OTL, Plan B (probably C, D, E & F in short order too) will give them an opportunity to reconsider next steps there.

Stalin continues to run my union into the ground. Disappointing but not unexpected.

No, to attain new heights of Stakhanovite triumphs, I think you mean.

So far, so good in Kashmir, and Hyderabad's position looks hopeless now Mysore has been annexed with the minimum of fuss.

It's been slightly less chaotic and destructive than OTL so far. Also, rather than the hasty UK provided partition lines for the final borders, India and Pakistan will be doing that more carefully with the assistance of LN mediation in 1948.

An unfortunate course of action that has left the Dutch almost completely isolated. The sooner they look for a diplomatic exit, the better.

Not really sure why they bothered, really. Especially after what they went through at the hands of the Nazis and Japanese in WW2.

The League of Nations is fast becoming the arbiter-of-last-resort for a host of regional conflicts around the world. Unfortunately, with the P5 each having their own agenda, I don't hold out that much hope for tangible results.

Well, they're trying (as did the UN in OTL) to be a bit more active and relevant than the pre-war LN. Mind you, that is a pretty low-set bar, no?

Caught between a powerful Chinese state and the IJA, the odds look to be very much against Mao in this timeline. I imagine Chiang will prevail in the short term and his KMT government will survive over the medium.

This looks pretty likely for now: they find themselves in a far better position than at this time in OTL. Still plenty of time to implode and f@#k it up though!

Britain failed to handle this situation, and with so much opposition to the partition plan from key players, so too has the League of Nations.

An abject one at that. The LN is trying, but it's not looking at all promising.

Not surprising to see the Soviets rejecting a plan that explictly excluded them!

Indeed. Now they are moving to forcibly prevent any Warsaw Pact countries joining and discouraging others with strong Communist parties as well.

Turkish participation would not be well received by Stalin and I'm sure İnönü is well aware of that. Much depends on whether he is prepared to break faith with Moscow on this? Otherwise, where the Czechs lead, others may well follow.

This world is far less bi-polar and probably more realpolitik than the OTL version. Such decisions will be viewed more in national self-interest than ideological terms, I reckon. My headcanon here is more like a latter day 'Concert of the Globe' than Cold War. Though the music may get a bit discordant at times!

Palestine may set new records for border gore. I expect that 1948 will see a battle between the Arabs and the Zionists. Unless U.S. intervenes, the border will soon look better. I am waiting for German students to accidentally set off a nuclear bomb in downtown Moscow or St. Petersburg. Thanks

This seems an astute observation and prediction. And in this multi-polar world, the US are not the only ones who may consider an intervention ...

It is that kind of Soviet fear/suspicion that has them restarting their own nuclear program now. And relocating all those German nuclear scientists to 'safety from foreign interference' in Russia. Once the Soviet program is up to speed, I was wouldn't give two brass roubles for their future freedom - or their lives, even.

Thing is, none of Chiang's OTL problems have been solved. He's still seen as a weak, incompetent war leader who was not very good at fighting the Japanese. He's still seen as a bit of a puppet for foreign interests, indeed, even worse, he's directly negotiating with evil Japan whilst they still occupy parts of China. And he has no narrative to compete with the communists still, who have been fighting the Japanese well, who have got the support of the peasants, and who are united under a strong power structure.

Once Japan leaves and it becomes a straight civil war, I don't think the nationalists will win easily, if at all given their historical ineptness.



Funnily enough, the Czechs voted in the communists all by themsevles, or so it seems, in OTL, so here, I wouldn't take them to be so willing to get in bed with the amercians, even if they do take their money.



Yeah, this definitely isn't going to work.

Yes, Chiang is far from trouble free, though in TTL, without the continuation of the war with Japan after 1937 and his recent successes, I don't think he's in anything like the weak position he was at the same time in OTL. In fact, he could argue that his 'masterful inaction' since 1937 has seen Japan whittled down, China able to progressively rebuild and reunite without the catastrophic losses another 7-8 years of war after 1937 would have brought. And he's trying to negotiate more bits away from Japan while killing Mao with the same stone. And Mao's power base is not as wide as it was in OTL 1947-48. That said, I agree re the potential for wider Communist agitation and it not being over yet.

That Czech desire to get the Marshall Plan aid in OTL (that this little play is based on) was a direct take from history and driven by Benes, who was temporarily back in power at that point. And of course with them being under the far looser suzerainty of Turkey in TTL, they believe they have more autonomy here. Whether it will work out that way for them is of course another matter. They were pretty heavily fought over in TTL so want the money, and don't have the Slovakian 'tail' to worry about in TTL, so may feel a little more Western-leaning overall.

I can't understand why they didn't push for a federalist state in Palestine. A unified central government for diplomacy, taxes, and defense, and provincial governments for local affairs... Rotating premiers appointed by the upper house of the legislature. Everyone gets something, no one gets everything.

A little of the Northern Ireland peace accords feel to things, perhaps? Perhaps it just didn't occur to them. We'll have to see what happens in TTL. Maybe your ideas might find some receptive ears if this partition long-shot fails, as seems likely.

this plan doesn't create a viable Palestine as an independent entity, it may only work if the northern part is seceded to Lebanon, eastern part to Jordan and western part to Egypt.

It all looks a horrible mess, doesn't it?

my suggestion at least appeases 3 Arab nations by giving them some territory so the league may come to accept the proposal. They don't know yet but failure to agree at any one thing at this point will bring a century of violence.

Quite possibly, but the lack of foreknowledge may discourage compromise. And you also get the feeling the more militant elements on all sides may have gone ahead as they did anyway, even if they knew the trouble that would follow.

we'll be wary of any political strings attached, and will fiercely protect local production capacity of strategic stuff, but good relations with USA and free things coming from them is nothing to turn our backs on. we won't encourage other nations to go ahead, but if they do we will go together with them and have more saying in what is the program.

This will be an interesting choice for Turkey and also how they broker it within the Bucharest Pact sphere of interest. Maybe they would prefer (for both political and sovereignty reasons) to prefer ordinary investment within Turkey, but might take a more permissive attitude to those satellite countries that were badly devastated in the war and need more rebuilding. Get the US to pay, at the price of a bit of soft power concession? They might be tempted.

let's also send representatives. we won't be missing any parties in any neighborhood.

And there are some Communists functioning within this somewhat more diverse Turkish post-war polity.

that's more or less Lebanon, while better than how Israel-Palestine turned out to be, it's still not a very ideal solution. A fully secular and decentralized state would've worked better maybe.

You get the feeling that there's no best solution available, just what you hope may be the least-worst.

 

[Midnite Duke]

France will probably turn out far better than OTL as they will be higher in the pecking order for American dollars. (Every major US city will have huge French sponsored 6September Marquis de Lafayette celebrations.) No colonial wars! There will probably be less immigration from former colonies.

The only peaceful Zionist state will have to be somewhere with little population that has the support of the current state. (My favorite idea is South Africa sponsoring Jewish settlement in South West Africa.

Thanks

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Soviet Union

Oh...probably similar OTL Stalin, the diplomatic team from Geneva depressed and in drink/prison, and Kelebek toasting the world from the beyond.

 

[Bullfilter]

It seems the commentariat for TT is slowly winding down, but thanks to those hardy souls still reading and the even hardier ones commenting! I'll do this next batch of comment feedback and not wait any longer before putting out the Turkish Cabinet Meeting first part, which will outline the proposals for possible internal border changes.

After that, I may move to a more general/sweeping overview of world developments before wrapping this up at the time period I have in mind. All good things must come to an end, after all! And I do have one or two other HOI3 ideas in mind, in addition to wanting to get back to my delayed mod development (which ran into some glitch problems, then RL and 2-3 other new AAR projects).

France will probably turn out far better than OTL as they will be higher in the pecking order for American dollars. (Every major US city will have huge French sponsored 6September Marquis de Lafayette celebrations.) No colonial wars! There will probably be less immigration from former colonies.

This could well be the case. Though they won't have P5 status in the LNSC. The lack of colonial wars should be a bonus for them. What ones they were left with in TTL should either be peaceful enough or easily parted with.

The only peaceful Zionist state will have to be somewhere with little population that has the support of the current state. (My favorite idea is South Africa sponsoring Jewish settlement in South West Africa.

Sadly, this could well be the case. Of course, a 'Zionist' state that doesn't include Israel is likely to not meet the requirements of many of the more ardent proponents, so my guess is ... a veil of tewars for the next few hundred years.

Oh...probably similar OTL Stalin, the diplomatic team from Geneva depressed and in drink/prison, and Kelebek toasting the world from the beyond.

Kelebek would be enjoying much of this. As he toasts the world with a goblet of lava!

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 263: Turkish Cabinet Meeting – July 1947

---xxx---​

Background

Turkey had a number of major international and domestic geopolitical issues to resolve by mid-1947. Not all would be discussed or indeed resolved at this cabinet meeting convened by Prime Minister Peker, who would in turn report discussions and recommendation to the Milli Şef, President Inönü.

The first was the future delineation of the Glorious National Republics of the UGNR. The ‘Diskoerekto Proposal’ for the re-ordering of the internal borders of the UGNR had been considered initially by the Turkish cabinet in April 1947. The Cabinet had given permission for a sub-committee, chaired by PM Peker and with the participation of MAJGEN Diskoerekto, to develop a refined proposal, based on guidance provided at that meeting.

There was also the issue of the rising violence in Madagascar, along with the rest of the overseas colonies Turkey had inherited on the fall of Vichy France in 1944. The broader issue would be debated later, but this meeting had to determine the immediate way ahead in Madagascar. In brief, Turkey could seek to hang on to and ‘pacify’ the island through a military-led crackdown. Or a negotiated peace agreement, perhaps leading to ‘orderly decolonisation’ could be pursued, with or without League of Nations mediation. Or another option could be granting increased local autonomy matched up with a ‘hearts and minds’ policy and substantial national investment.

The third issue of immediate interest was the ‘Palestine Question’. From July-December 1947 the British intention to surrender its LN mandate would play out against a backdrop of increasing communal violence, an attempt at LN intervention with a less-than-enthusiastically accepted partition proposal and a seeming spiral towards civil war when the British mandate finally expired in March 1948.

---xxx---​

Palestine

In the second half of 1947, in Turkey some advocated a ‘hands-off’ approach. The ‘Hawks’ were pushing for direct Turkish intervention, hopefully with LN cover via a Security Council resolution. Neither lobby believed the current LN partition plan would be acceptable to the interested parties or work even if it was adopted. It was more a matter of whether Turkey wanted to wear the risks that either action or inaction may bring about on Turkey’s very doorstep, in an area over which they would like to assume a degree or regional leadership.

This debate would be held in the lead up to 1948 and would influence Turkish actions as the situation came to a head. PM Peker indicated he would welcome any arguments or submissions on courses of actions for this matter.

---xxx---​

Madagascar

With violence escalating in this far-off inherited colony, in July 1947 it was imperative that a decision be made before things went too much further. In short, the main lobbies were:

• The Decolonialists. They disapproved of Turkey holding any overseas colonies at all, except perhaps for a few small naval bases that might be maintained (either under direct Turkish control or under long-term leases) where strong local national sentiment was not a major issue. Specifically, they argued for the quickest possible withdrawal from Madagascar as possible, with local elections for a new independent national government to be held without delay.
• The Hawks. They wanted a major military crackdown in Madagascar to crush the current local rebellion. And would probably adopt a similar ‘hold at all costs’ approach to most of these new colonial issues.
• The Integrationists. This group wanted to bring ‘enlightened development’ to this and other inherited colonies. Major investment, local autonomy through ‘safe’ democratic reforms, informed policing and other such measures should be used to integrate Madagascar into the wider UGNR, not as a colony but as part of a self-governing federation of nations under Turkey’s hegemony.

Again, as with Palestine the debate in July would help govern the handling of this crisis and show a possible path forward for other colonial issues that were bound to arise. Brewing troubles and outright wars in places like Korea, Indochina, Indonesia and other colonial hot spots meant Turkey too could not assume any immunity from such troubles. Quite aside from the matter of nationalist aspirations within the UGNR in Italy, the Balkans, Syria and Persia.

---xxx---​

The Internal Organisation of the UGNR

Speaking of which, there were also three broad options being considered for the post-GW2 organisation of the former nations that had been retained under direct rule from Ankara within the UGNR, essentially as locally self-governing provincial governments under Turkish rule.

One was to retain the current borders, based on the those that applied before the Turkish Wars of Expansion and then the Great Liberation War that had ended with the conquest and absorption of Italy into the pre-GW2 UGNR. Alternatively, the plan to fundamentally amend the old pre-GW2 borders along the demographic lines first put forward by MAJGEN Diskoerekto could be adopted. Cabinet may recommend the development of a compromise plan using a mix of approaches overall, or within regions.

This paper will summarise the possible changes as outlined by the Cabinet Sub-Committee. Free debate [ie reader comment and discussion] would follow, after which the Milli Şef would be provided recommendations and make his decision. They will be organised on a regional basis, meaning different approaches might be taken in each, according to the specific local circumstances.

As a reminder, following the Geneva Treaty the following borders applied in Europe and Turkey’s immediate area of interest.

Europe, North Africa and the Middle East in 1945, incorporating the Geneva Settlements of October-November 1944.

---xxx---​

Turkey

As discussed in April’s cabinet meeting, Inönü had decided against splitting up Turkey into separate GNRs. Turkey’s current national borders would be retained, but the broad allocation of say three-four larger provincial political groupings as argued in the original proposal, rather than the current dozens of smaller provincial governments, could be adopted. This might simplify regional administration and elections. Any views of the Cabinet would be welcome on this idea.

---xxx---​

Italy

Turkey had retained the conquered Italy within the UGNR after 1944, broken into three locally autonomous GNRs, with Southern Italy essentially being run by the Corleone outfit and its ‘associates’ as an organised crime fiefdom.

Post-war Italian borders within the UGNR.​

Here, the Diskoerekto Plan called for the further breakdown of Italy into six GNRs of roughly equal population size. Essentially, it would see three northern, one central and two southern republics formed.

“Diskoerekto’s Italy”.​

A third option, not specifically proposed but nonetheless open for discussion would be the restoration of Italy as a single government, with perhaps even a plan to transition it back into a separate national government within the Bucharest Pact, rather than as a direct part of the UGNR. Some argued this might head off potential unrest that might erupt down the track, as Italian nationalism made a comeback.

The Cabinet members received a letter from the Governor of Southern Italy, Don Vito Corleone, in the lead up to the Cabinet meeting. It seemed his rather well-informed ‘friends and associates’ had given him a comprehensive run-down on the current deliberations and wanted to ensure he ‘wished them well with some wise advice’ before they made any decision directly affecting his own patch.

“A friend should always underestimate your virtues and an enemy overestimate your faults,” Don Vito had opened with. “For my part, I hope, with all respect, that you have underestimated me.”

“Some have said that too radical a change at this sensitive time may even result in violence,” he continued. “You know I don’t like violence. I run a government of and for businessmen. Blood is a big expense that none of us can afford at the moment.”

“Now we’re talking business, let’s talk business,” he said, getting down to it. “I know that time erodes gratitude more quickly than it does beauty. Both of us have created a thing of beauty here in Southern Italy and have much to be grateful to each other for. It would be a great shame for our mutual interests be marred by a hasty change.”

“I hear a very, eh, interesting proposal is being discussed in Ankara. I hope it is not something that may cause me to feel a little … stone in my shoe.” Don Vito Corleone talking to an associate, as reported by a S.I.T.H. agent in Naples, Southern Italy, June 1947.​

“In closing, I’d just like to say in friendship, humility and with all due deference, that the strength of a government, like the strength of an army, lies in its loyalty to each other. Friendship is everything. Friendship is more than talent. It is more than the government. I hope we will continue to be friends for many years to come.”

---xxx---​

The Balkans and the Middle East

Noting the decision to retain Turkish national borders ‘as is’, the slightly revised proposal for reorganisation here would in the Balkans see Greece retained as a separate GNR, but the rest (Former Yugoslavia, Albania and Bulgaria) instead organised into two GNRs: South Slavia and Rumelia. If this change was not made, the current administrative division of the former Yugoslavia into several constituent GNRs – some quite small [and mirroring the main OTL post-Yugoslavian borders] would be retained.

Proposed revised borders for the Balkans and the Middle East.​

In the Middle East, changes would be kept fairly minimal. Lebanon would be absorbed into Syria as a unified GNR, while Arabia would be retained as it was currently constituted – as much as the UGNR might like to add more of the semi-independent countries around its southern rim into an expanded GNR.

---xxx---​

Iran

Then there was the proposal to divide Iran and the sliver of Turkish-occupied Afghanistan into three GNRs (again, as opposed to the larger number of smaller administrative units currently being run from Ankara).

The ‘Triple Partition of Persia’ as proposed in the new UGNR border plan.​

The alternatives were to retain the smaller sub-divisions or, as with Italy, to move towards a single Iranian GNR that could eventually be given nominal independence as a self-governing member of the Bucharest Pact.

---xxx---​

Views Sought

“The lines are now open” for any discussion of the matters raised above, in whatever form contributors may like (including OOC, or in character as a commentator, academic, cabinet member or even foreign ambassador lobbying the UGNR).

 

[Midnite Duke]

I always like smaller groupings, though this probably leads more but smaller wars. Dividing the Mafia south into several smaller sections is a great idea, though I will not publicly support it so long as Vito lives.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Here, the Diskoerekto Plan called for the further breakdown of Italy into six GNRs of roughly equal population size. Essentially, it would see three northern, one central and two southern republics formed.

This seems sensible and stable. The sicillians may not like it, but they're no match for SITH, and certainly no match for the Turkish Army. The only way they can fight us is through terrorist action, given their general poverty regionally and lack of trained fighters.

Naturally, terrorist action tends to unfiy people against the terrorists, esepcially in the rest of Italy.

I advise Vito to continue being pragmatic and keep his trap shut. He'll have a lucrative criminal empire, for as long as he remembers that it lives or dies based on Turkish patronage.

Noting the decision to retain Turkish national borders ‘as is’, the slightly revised proposal for reorganisation here would in the Balkans see Greece retained as a separate GNR, but the rest (Former Yugoslavia, Albania and Bulgaria) instead organised into two GNRs: South Slavia and Rumelia. If this change was not made, the current administrative division of the former Yugoslavia into several constituent GNRs – some quite small [and mirroring the main OTL post-Yugoslavian borders] would be retained.

This one would have to be flexible. If the two states 'take' amongst rhe population, fine. If not, balkanise it up into sub groups.

Then there was the proposal to divide Iran and the sliver of Turkish-occupied Afghanistan into three GNRs (again, as opposed to the larger number of smaller administrative units currently being run from Ankara).

Again, this is the sensible option given the variety of sub groups in Iran.

 

[diskoerekto]

“In closing, I’d just like to say in friendship, humility and with all due deference, that the strength of a government, like the strength of an army, lies in its loyalty to each other. Friendship is everything. Friendship is more than talent. It is more than the government. I hope we will continue to be friends for many years to come.”

Now that the war is over we're strong enough to exert our will if needs be. I think he's smart enough to see that and try to find himself a role in the new order.

The Balkans and the Middle East

Rumelia and Greater Syria can also be incorporated into the unitary Turkish GNR, there's historical basis for that and I think that's what Inonu would do. I mean that's where many of the founding fathers are from themselves, born and grew up in.

 

[Wraith11B]

Sorry, I've been super busy of late, of course when you want at least some engagement!

With a still split national government, I'd imagine that the US starts getting into a system of chasing the Almighty Dollar. TTLs Marshall Plan, combined with incentives for naval/aviation development which began over the course of the late war, should provide a great way for the US to lure the Turks towards at least a neutral path, away from the Soviets. The plan for a rearrangement of the Glorious Union is beneficial here with chances for investment. The more regional governments, the better. I'd imagine given the US' penchant in TTL towards decolonization, that they would encourage at least the decolonialists, with a veneer of the integrationists: create a plan to begin granting local autonomy to get the locals into the process of government, heretofore not a part of their responsibility.

For PACOM, making the deal with the devil is going to drag the US into the quagmires of land wars in Asia, and (in my opinion) the ultimate of shitshows: a civil war amongst the Chinese the continues. Too many powers pushing too much between Japan and the Soviets directly and indirectly the United States.

 

[diskoerekto]

• The Decolonialists. They disapproved of Turkey holding any overseas colonies at all, except perhaps for a few small naval bases that might be maintained (either under direct Turkish control or under long-term leases) where strong local national sentiment was not a major issue. Specifically, they argued for the quickest possible withdrawal from Madagascar as possible, with local elections for a new independent national government to be held without delay.
• The Hawks. They wanted a major military crackdown in Madagascar to crush the current local rebellion. And would probably adopt a similar ‘hold at all costs’ approach to most of these new colonial issues.
• The Integrationists. This group wanted to bring ‘enlightened development’ to this and other inherited colonies. Major investment, local autonomy through ‘safe’ democratic reforms, informed policing and other such measures should be used to integrate Madagascar into the wider UGNR, not as a colony but as part of a self-governing federation of nations under Turkey’s hegemony.

common sense says integrationism, but there's one more layer to it. what does the majority of the integrationists say if the locals of Madagascar (or any other colony) decides they don't want integration and don't want to be in this federation? then will they decide to pack up and leave or stay and fight? the dichotomy between decolonialism and hawkism is still there.

I believe integrationism will win, but I wonder what will happen if the locals don't like to be integrated (though I hope they happily accept modernisation, secularism, democracy and development in general)

 

[SSmith]

The first was the future delineation of the Glorious National Republics of the UGNR. The ‘Diskoerekto Proposal’ for the re-ordering of the internal borders of the UGNR had been considered initially by the Turkish cabinet in April 1947.

The key decision here seems to be what to do about Italy? Dividing the country seems a prudent course of action in the interest of retaining control of it over the longer term. The question then is what should be done about the south? Allowing Corleone to keep it makes him powerful and may lead to difficulties in the future, although it would keep him on side for the present. On the hand, it seems breaking up his fiefdom would make him an enemy.

So, if, and only if, the decision is taken to divide the south and break faith with Corleone, the first move should be to strike hard and destroy him utterly. Take no prisoners!

There was also the issue of the rising violence in Madagascar, along with the rest of the overseas colonies Turkey had inherited on the fall of Vichy France in 1944.

I recommend taking the integrationist approach first. This should at least buy some time to stabilize the rest of the union, and if it fails (which it may) then decolonize as gracefully as possible. Madagascar is too far away to be worth fighting for, although basing rights would be very nice to retain in any final settlement.

The third issue of immediate interest was the ‘Palestine Question’. From July-December 1947 the British intention to surrender its LN mandate would play out against a backdrop of increasing communal violence, an attempt at LN intervention with a less-than-enthusiastically accepted partition proposal and a seeming spiral towards civil war when the British mandate finally expired in March 1948.

I would advocate the UGNR bides its time with this one. The British are already on the way out and the prospects for the League of Nations don't look too bright either, so let everyone else try and fail first, before intervening. Above all, if Turkey does intervene, make sure there's a coherent plan before going in!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The key decision here seems to be what to do about Italy? Dividing the country seems a prudent course of action in the interest of retaining control of it over the longer term. The question then is what should be done about the south? Allowing Corleone to keep it makes him powerful and may lead to difficulties in the future, although it would keep him on side for the present. On the hand, it seems breaking up his fiefdom would make him an enemy.

So, if, and only if, the decision is taken to divide the south and break faith with Corleone, the first move should be to strike hard and destroy him utterly. Take no prisoners!

Were I still running SITH, I'd leave the mafia in charge until they inevitably go too far, then take the credit for cleaning them up. Probably when the current Don dies. However, given he's already taken enough power juice to start making threats to Turkey, whilst the Turkish miltiary is still in occupation...

He may be too stupid to be left alive.

 

[Bullfilter]

I always like smaller groupings, though this probably leads more but smaller wars. Dividing the Mafia south into several smaller sections is a great idea, though I will not publicly support it so long as Vito lives.

This makes much sense - as does trying to keep it from Vito. Though he should also remember "there is always a bigger fish"!

This seems sensible and stable. The sicillians may not like it, but they're no match for SITH, and certainly no match for the Turkish Army. The only way they can fight us is through terrorist action, given their general poverty regionally and lack of trained fighters.

Naturally, terrorist action tends to unfiy people against the terrorists, esepcially in the rest of Italy.

I advise Vito to continue being pragmatic and keep his trap shut. He'll have a lucrative criminal empire, for as long as he remembers that it lives or dies based on Turkish patronage.

This was in my mind as well. It's only natural that he would try to object in faux polite "speaking with the greatest respect" Mafia language if he feels challenged, but he also needs to remember how he got there. I have a 'five families' meeting vibe in mind here as this progresses and depending on the Cabinet's final decision.

This one would have to be flexible. If the two states 'take' amongst rhe population, fine. If not, balkanise it up into sub groups.

This area may be the most problematic of all. And if the OTL example of Yugoslavia is anything to go by, agglomerated pan-slavic states that try to bypass or gloss over traditional or former national, ethnic and religious identities can be problematic in the longer term.

Again, this is the sensible option given the variety of sub groups in Iran.

That seems to be the consensus here.

Now that the war is over we're strong enough to exert our will if needs be. I think he's smart enough to see that and try to find himself a role in the new order.

I think you may be right, but there's always the chance some hot head goes overboard and starts something (Sonny, Joey Zaza, etc)

Rumelia and Greater Syria can also be incorporated into the unitary Turkish GNR, there's historical basis for that and I think that's what Inonu would do. I mean that's where many of the founding fathers are from themselves, born and grew up in.

Interesting. Though have things gone too far now in the post WW1 OTL and now TTL to comfortably allow that? Or would in remain in keeping with the new path to glory? Hmmm ...

Sorry, I've been super busy of late, of course when you want at least some engagement!

RL and nervous energy are what they are. It is enough that you've kept the faith this long, my friend. Any involvement at all is appreciated.

With a still split national government, I'd imagine that the US starts getting into a system of chasing the Almighty Dollar. TTLs Marshall Plan, combined with incentives for naval/aviation development which began over the course of the late war, should provide a great way for the US to lure the Turks towards at least a neutral path, away from the Soviets. The plan for a rearrangement of the Glorious Union is beneficial here with chances for investment. The more regional governments, the better. I'd imagine given the US' penchant in TTL towards decolonization, that they would encourage at least the decolonialists, with a veneer of the integrationists: create a plan to begin granting local autonomy to get the locals into the process of government, heretofore not a part of their responsibility.

This is along the lines with what I had in mind, though I do let the blend of parallel OTL events and the new TTL direction for the US (and the dreaded % dice on occasion) bounce around off each other to create some outcomes that I don't expect myself. To that end, I don't have a detailed end situation in mind for the US in particular or TTL in general! All these events and conversations feed into each episode.

I think you'd be right about the US attitudes here, though Dewey and his mob are probably a bit less likely to be militant about it than in OTL - mebbe. But in general yes, I think they'd prefer decolonisation where possible, for both philosophical and geopolitical reasons.

For PACOM, making the deal with the devil is going to drag the US into the quagmires of land wars in Asia, and (in my opinion) the ultimate of shitshows: a civil war amongst the Chinese the continues. Too many powers pushing too much between Japan and the Soviets directly and indirectly the United States.

This will be the quandary and potential quagmire all the would-be players need to contend with. Is it a game no one can afford to either play or miss? A wicked problem indeed, especially when we must remmeber these guys have no hindsight with which to judge those events as they break.

common sense says integrationism, but there's one more layer to it. what does the majority of the integrationists say if the locals of Madagascar (or any other colony) decides they don't want integration and don't want to be in this federation? then will they decide to pack up and leave or stay and fight? the dichotomy between decolonialism and hawkism is still there.

This seems the sensible middle path, though there's always an outside chance one of the polar opposites gains the upper hand in the debate. It is also one of those strategies that you can try to make work and then just continue the devolvement to independnece if it isn't working and you don't want to go to the all-out crackdown and all that entails.

I believe integrationism will win, but I wonder what will happen if the locals don't like to be integrated (though I hope they happily accept modernisation, secularism, democracy and development in general)

Per above. I think this will be one the % dice get a work out on (both for the decision and the possible outcomes, rather like what was done with the partition of India).

The key decision here seems to be what to do about Italy? Dividing the country seems a prudent course of action in the interest of retaining control of it over the longer term. The question then is what should be done about the south? Allowing Corleone to keep it makes him powerful and may lead to difficulties in the future, although it would keep him on side for the present. On the hand, it seems breaking up his fiefdom would make him an enemy.

So, if, and only if, the decision is taken to divide the south and break faith with Corleone, the first move should be to strike hard and destroy him utterly. Take no prisoners!

This is probably the biggest one, yes. Though we all know how tricky and potentially nasty the Balkans can get ... And the south is the immediate point of interest, in terms of 'stickyness', though it is probably to industrial north that is of the most economic and political importance in the longer run. Especially if there are duelling Communist and neo-Fascist elements likely to rise to destabilise things as the immediate post-war period starts to fade into history.

Re what to do if Corleone gets beyond his station? Indeed. Though one should NEVER talk about family business in front of strangers! Also, Kaya and Ogel may be gone, Luca Brasi sleeping with the fishes and Kelebek in retirement on some volcanic world on another plane, but there are still some wily and experienced SITH operatives around. Including Cennet and Mike Ceylan! Not to be trifled with.

I recommend taking the integrationist approach first. This should at least buy some time to stabilize the rest of the union, and if it fails (which it may) then decolonize as gracefully as possible. Madagascar is too far away to be worth fighting for, although basing rights would be very nice to retain in any final settlement.

Yes, this seems the most practicable and likely first response with backup plan.

I would advocate the UGNR bides its time with this one. The British are already on the way out and the prospects for the League of Nations don't look too bright either, so let everyone else try and fail first, before intervening. Above all, if Turkey does intervene, make sure there's a coherent plan before going in!

This will be tricky. Biding time makes much sense in some ways, but then could a point be passed after which it all turns so badly to $h!t that an interventions is either too late, potentially bloody, or both? And coherent plans (flexible to change once the line of departure is crossed, of course) and a clear political end state are vital! But will that be attempted, or even achievable? History there tends to say "eh, probably not, but you're welcome to try - sucker!"

Were I still running SITH, I'd leave the mafia in charge until they inevitably go too far, then take the credit for cleaning them up. Probably when the current Don dies. However, given he's already taken enough power juice to start making threats to Turkey, whilst the Turkish miltiary is still in occupation...

He may be too stupid to be left alive.

This is an option too. We'll see how much was bluster, how patient he is and whether either side believes the other (not trust, of course, a redundant word in these circles) will live up to any agreement made.