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That certainly went well as it could for Nizam and Hyderabad! Even so, I see this as delaying the invevitable, and hopefully the assimiliation of Hyderabad can be achieved by patient diplomacy rather than another war.
It would be hard for them anyway, but being completely surrounded by India and no sea access? That got to be hard unless they can work something out. They will certainly be negotiating, for sure.
The rather tangled web linking Japan, Nationalist China and the US continues to bear dividends. There may still be some mileage in it yet, as Chiang should really concentrate on consolidating his gains before trying to push back against Japan.
It's not a natural meeting of like minds, at all. But the link to practical, realpolitik outcomes has them cooperating for now. But eventually, the 'Asian elephant in the room' of occupied China (even excluding Manchuria and Inner Mongolia for now) will have to be addressed. And there's no easy or painless solution for that, for either side. And with another presidential election in the US later this year, how will that affect things, one wonders rhetorically.
Gambling is the Devil's game, for the House always wins.
Kelebek smoked through a job well done. Here, the ethnic and religious tensions would lead to decades of violence. There, unrelenting civil war over independence and betrayel. The largest empire in history had been brought low, and a whole host of new powers had arisen to market.
All from one poor, desperate soul's wish:
'Save my country. Make us strong.'
How long had it been since Kamal had made that plea? That pact? Decades? Millenia? Time had no meaning to Kelebek. So much change, in exchange for a man's soul - driving him to drink his way that much closer to his demise.
And it got better! This time, Kelebek found not only fertile, not only desperate, but willing participants in the latest cult. SITH would cut a bloody passage through history before someone got lucky and harvested the reapers themselves.
Yes, Kelebek was pleased. And yet, there was a degree of melancholy too. The game was over. Turkey had sold themsevles, and gotten their war and their empire. Through clever words and actions, the world was now neatly and not so neatly divided in twain.
Time to move on, and yet...
What was that? A small waver in the darkness?
A man sat alone and depressed, full of drink in the worker's cantina. He had done the impossible, his team and him. They had delivered the world to the proletariat. A new age of freedom from oppression, where all people from all nations joined a commonwealth of mercy and plenty.
Stolen. Savaged. Brought low by petty power and lesser men. Stalin had ruined his legacy at the negotiating table. Arrested his team. Sent them to the far edges of the Union THEY had forged!
And now, it is finished. The Chinese would kowtow to the Japanese imperialists and Amercian capitalists rather than succeed themsevles under Mao.
The Vietnamese would be left to die whilst Stalin enriched himself on stolen Germany machines. It made his blood boil.
Then it made him angry.
Too angry.
'I swear, I would sell my soul to make this right.'
Loved this. Even if Kelebek no longer intervenes directly in this altiverse, his malevolent spirit surely leave a cold chill and sulphurous reek in many a dark corner ...
India needs to cut off access to Hyderabad from the rest of the world. Without access to a port and all highway/rail connections provided by India, H must depend on air for all non-internal needs. What outside countries, do you see backing Hy? Thanks
They've already done that, so unless either the wider world puts pressure on or the two can work out some compromise, it is a difficult road ahead for Hyderabad, despite their very surprising military success here. Pakistan might back them, though that would be risky and provocative at a time when they are still finalising borders with India and negotiating via the LN over Kashmir. Not sure if Turkey would want to put their foot in that bear trap, and neither they nor Pakistan could sustain an airlift to them in the meantime. Either LN or wider international community pressure might be their only 'soft power' alternative. But who would be willing to do it, given their various preoccupations and/or limitations on actions?
Where is Japan finding raw materials and oil to keep its economy running? I doubt USSR sells them any. Are they now on good trading relationship with USA?
The oil, discussed some time back, is mainly coming from Turkish-controlled fields in the Gulf, which Japan are helping to invest in and develop, as well. Probably between the UGNR and the countries that are still members of the Co-Prosperity Sphere, they'd get most of the rest. Certainly not from the USSR and for now, the US-run embargoes still cover strategic materials, though more commercial trade goods have been permitted for trade after the recent protocols were concluded.
Ha, good luck with that! Even now, most of these 'friendly partners' still hold territorial cross-claims against each other ... seventy+ years on! ASEAN was a specific area of professional involvement of mine in RL, so I'll perhaps bring some of that perspective later, if we ever get that far. For now, in-universe Thailand is the only one with real independence (though they remain in the Japanese sphere). The rest are either puppets or still colonial possessions: a long way to go!
All: thanks so much for your continued engagement. It's really appreciated and keeps me going, for now anyway. I have noticed though that some of even the longer term devotees have eased off a bit, so we shall see how much longer this one will last (given I've rather stupidly gone back up to four concurrent AARs again a while back ).
In the next chapter, there will a few 'special focuses' again: the US Presidential primaries are on again; the next Czech election takes on a special significance and we get a bit of a glimpse behind the usually impenetrable walls of the Kremlin into the murky political depths within the Politburo.
On 3 January British Prime Minister Clement Attlee made his strongest and most specific attack on communism to date when he declared that "today in the oppressed and occupied Warsaw Pact countries the Communist Party, while overthrowing the economic tyranny of landlordism and capitalism, has renounced the doctrines of individual freedom and political democracy and rejected the whole spiritual heritage of western Europe."
British PM Clement Attlee speaks out against ‘Communist tyranny’, January 1948.
Attlee told Parliament on 15 March that known or suspected Communists or Fascists in the Civil Service would be dismissed from posts vital to national security. Two days later, Belgium, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom signed the Treaty of Brussels, providing for mutual defence as well as economic, social and cultural collaboration.
The Hague Congress opens, 7 May 1948.
The Hague Congress met in the Congress of Europe in The Hague on 7 May, bringing together about 400 delegates representing a broad political spectrum. Winston Churchill delivered a speech appealing to Western Europeans to forget "the hatreds of the past" and create a united Europe centred on "the idea of a Charter of Human Rights, guarded by freedom and sustained by law."
Former British and French Prime Ministers Winston Churchill and Paul Ramadier at the Congress of Europe at the Hague, May 1948.
---xxx---
The United States
US President Thomas E. Dewey delivered the annual State of the Union address to Congress on 7 January. Dewey outlined his main foreign policy goal for future: "to achieve world peace based on principles of free enterprise, justice and the freedom of nations."
Dewey formally re-nominated for the Republican nomination for president on 16 January. Later that month, Secretary of State Vandenberg appeared before the Senate to make the case for Dewey's request for $4.8 billion to cover the first 15 months of the Vandenberg Plan, warning that US failure to help rebuild Europe's economy would turn the continent into "the dictatorship of police states."
On 20 January Republican politician John Foster Dulles accused the Soviet Union of trying "by every art short of war" to ruin Europe. This was done in the context of Communist agit-prop and destabilisation in the Bucharest Pact country of the Czech Republic: this was directed at undermining their professed desire to take advantage of the Vandenberg Plan. Dulles urged Congress to set up a European aid plan that would bind western Europe into a deeper cooperation that would deter the Soviets in both western and central Europe.
The Republican presidential primaries began in New Hampshire on 9 March, with Dewey comfortably winning, taking six of the state's eight delegates. Dewey signed the Foreign Assistance Act of 1948 on 3 April, making the Vandenberg Plan an actuality.
Dewey in New York during the 1948 Republican primaries. He was not seriously challenged for the re-nomination.
On 11 May, third-party presidential candidate Henry A. Wallace gave a speech before 19,000 people at Madison Square Garden that was also broadcast over radio and television. Wallace used the speech to publicise an open letter to Joseph Stalin featuring a six-point plan to end the Cold War: A general reduction of armaments, stopping all foreign exports of weapons, unrestricted trade between the two countries, freedom of movement between the two countries, free exchange of scientific information and the establishment of an LN agency for international relief.
Wallace appeared before a Senate Judiciary subcommittee on 29 May to testify against the Mundt-Nixon Communist control bill, blasting its sponsors as "warmongers, fear-mongers and hate-mongers" who would stand in history as "American counterparts of Mussolini and Hitler." Wallace maintained that existing laws were adequate to deal with acts of subversion and swore that his third party would refuse to comply with the measure if it passed.
The Republican Party presidential primaries concluded on 1 June. On 23 June, the Republican National Convention unanimously adopted a party platform. Pledges included a reduction of public debt, promotion of small business, "eventual statehood for Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico," a foreign policy "which welcomes co-operation but spurns appeasement," and "a vigorous enforcement of existing laws against Communists."
The Republican National Convention, June 1948.
Dewey was re-nominated as the Republican candidate for president on the first ballot at the National Convention on 24 June. "I thank you with all my heart for your friendship and confidence," Dewey said in his acceptance speech. "I am profoundly sensible of the responsibility that goes with it. I accept your nomination. In all humility, I pray God that I may deserve this opportunity to serve our country for another term as your President."
Dewey delivers his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.
The Republican National Convention ended after Governor Earl Warren of California was named the party's vice-presidential candidate on the 25th, after the more conservative incumbent Vice President John W. Bricker had earlier announced he would retire found his own legal firm. Many felt he had been pressured out, with Dewey hoping Warren could attract more votes from the centre to get him over the line, especially in California where Warren had been the Governor since January 1943.
Warren and Dewey at the Republican National Convention.
The Democratic Party primaries were conducted in parallel to Dewey’s more ‘processional’ renomination. Held between 9 March and 1 June 1948, Roosevelt’s vice-presidential running mate from 1944, Harry S. Truman, was the heavy favourite. He had been the dominant and most outspoken senior Democratic figure during Dewey’s term and was soon leading after the early contests. His only serious opponent at the Democratic National Convention of 1948 was Senator Richard Russel Jr. of Georgia, a former state governor and a founder and leader of the conservative coalition in Congress since 1937.
Main Democratic primaries contenders in June 1948 Harry Truman (left) and Richard Russell Jr (right).
Truman ended up winning the balloting in the first round, with over nine hundred votes, Russell receiving 266 and no other candidate more than 15.
Various Democratic Party leaders had promoted candidates for the vice-presidential nomination, including Alben W. Barkley and Wilson W. Wyatt of Kentucky, William Preston Lane Jr. and Millard Tydings of Maryland, Oscar R. Ewing of Iowa, James Roosevelt of California, and Joseph C. O'Mahoney of Wyoming. During the convention, Barkley's keynote speech won over the delegates, and when it became clear Barkley had more than enough support to win the nomination, Truman agreed to accept him as his running mate. Barkley was nominated by acclamation.
Democratic Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees Harry Truman and Albert Barkley shake hands at the Democratic National Convention, June 1948.
In his acceptance speech, Truman told the delegates "Senator Barkley and I will win this election and make these Republicans like it –don't you forget that!" His pugnacious attack on what he termed the "Do-Nothing 80th Congress" further energised the delegates. Truman's speech was looked on in retrospect as the start of the "Give 'em Hell, Harry!" campaign theme that Truman would take to the November general election.
---xxx---
Bucharest Pact: the Czech Coup of 1948
During January 1948, Communist agitation in the Czech Republic continued as pro-Soviet elements sought to undermine President Edvard Beneš and his desire to opt into the Vandeberg Plan to rebuild his still war-ravaged country – which had remained separated from Slovakia after the war. They were motivated by directives from Cominform, but portrayed this as home-grown opposition to Beneš’ pro-Western leanings and Turkey’s acquiescence to the Czechs taking advantage of the ‘fire hose of American cash’.
Pro-Communist demonstrators in Prague, January 1948.
After days of demonstrations and Communist calls for his resignation, on 21 February Beneš issued a statement rejecting the Communists' right to head the government and accusing them of wanting to establish a totalitarian regime. His letter explained that his duty as president was "to convince the political parties not to separate but to work together."
In response, on 23 February the Czech Communist Minister of the Interior and Minister of War claimed that groups within President Beneš’ National Social Party, the second-largest in the country, were conspiring for an armed revolt against the state. An order from the Interior Ministry forbade Czech citizens from leaving the country without a special passport stamp, while police occupied and thoroughly searched the National Social Party's headquarters in Prague, confiscating a number of documents.
A statement was issued that same day by Communist Prime Minister Klement Gottwald supposedly on behalf of President Beneš asking "all citizens to maintain calm and order and to continue to work. He assures everyone that he acts in accord with the principles of parliamentary democracy and that he works to the end that all parties to find unity to renew the collaboration of the whole National Front Government."
Czech Communist PM Gottwald makes a speech during his failed attempt to take over the country from 23-25 February 1948. His campaign took advantage of Stalin’s imposing reputation, but it transpired the man himself had not personally initiated the action and did not offer material help the Czech Communists had hoped for.
The next day, Communist action committees took over all offices and departments headed by non-Communists as well as opposition newspapers and political headquarters. On 25 February, Beneš declared this a Communist coup d'état and refused to approve a new cabinet composed of Communists and their supporters. He called on the army to help restore order and formally requested Turkish support.
On 26 February Turkey issued a public statement repudiating the Communist’s take-over attempt and announced if the police did not stand down, Turkey would send in forces to “assist the legal government of the Czech republic to restore order, in accordance with Article VII of the Treaty of Bucharest.” The United States, Great Britain and France also issued a joint statement condemning the Czech coup attempt, calling it engineered "by means of a crisis artificially and deliberately instigated."
Faced with a stronger response than they had been expecting and a failure of the Soviet Union to offer firm support, let alone the threat of military assistance, the Communists backed down, ending the coup. Stalin sent a personal telegram to Inönü assuring him he had neither instigated nor approved the actions of the Czech Communist putschists.
With the backing of Turkey and the bulk of the Czech Army, President Beneš was able to see off the Communist coup of February 1948 – but it had been a close-run thing and the Communists remained a force to be reckoned with, if somewhat chastened for now.
While this was accepted at face value by the Turkish leadership, S.I.T.H. analysis and sources asserted it had been a ‘plausibly deniable’ operation mounted with the support of Beria’s MGB, the successor since 1946 to the NKVD, perhaps part of an internal Soviet power-play to enhance him as a viable successor to Stalin, or at least as a key power broker within the Politburo. If so, he was playing a very dangerous game.
The Ministerstvo Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti (Ministry of State Security) was the name of the Soviet state security apparatus dealing with internal and external security issues since 1946, including secret police duties, foreign and domestic intelligence and counter-intelligence.
Lavrentiy Beria: playing his own dangerous game within a game? Or an 'innocent' bystander?
In the aftermath of this failed coup, Beneš would purge the leadership of the police and remove the Communists from the National Front government coalition. But the Communist leader, former Prime Minister Klement Gottwald, remained in parliament and his party retain many seats and a strong political organisation.
Gottwald invokes the image of Stalin at the Czech Communist National Convention in 1947 but this did not translate into practical or overt assistance in 1948. Had he been acting on his own or at the instigation of murky forces, such as Soviet MGB Head Lavrentiy Beria?
On 12 March Chile formally accused the Soviet Union of threatening world peace and demanded that the LN Security Council investigate what role Moscow had in the Czech coup. The Soviet Union vetoed a LN resolution on 24 May to establish a Security Council subcommittee to hear Czech officials testify on the attempted coup d'état.
In something of a diplomatic counter-play, Moscow radio read a message from Joseph Stalin on 27 May replying to Henry Wallace's open letter, welcoming it as a good basis "for peaceful settlement of the differences between the USSR and the United States."
Parliamentary elections were held in Czechoslovakia on 30 May, to see if a new Government could be formed after the troubles earlier in the year. The 300-seat National Assembly elected in April 1946 had seen the Communists emerge as the largest single party (95 seats), the National Social Party (56), People’s Party (48) and Democratic Party (43) and Social Democrats (37) were the other larger parties that had formed the National Front Government the Communists had tried to oust in February. The President, Beneš, was elected separately.
The standings following the 1946 parliamentary elections.
Would the Communists be punished at the polls for their audacious bid? Or would there be a reaction against the various pro-Western or -Turkish parties? Or would the more independent-minded Czech nationalists gain ground? It would be a vigorous campaign.
A large Communist rally held in Wenceslas Square in Prague, where the crowd waits to be addressed by Klement Gottwald, May 1948. They may not have succeeded in their attempt to take over the government entirely, but the Communist Party remained popular and powerful in the Czech Republic. Also well-funded by suspected MGB ‘benefactors’ via Czech front organisations.
The 'swing table' for the 1948 Czech parliamentary election.
A rally held by the People’s Party in Prague during the parliamentary election campaign, May 1948.
The campaign had been hard-fought, but in the end by far the largest swing had gone to the conservative, pro-Western People’s Party, who picked up a whopping 29 seats to become the second largest party in the Assembly, almost eclipsing the Communists, who lost ten seats.
The conservative, pro-Turkish Democratic Party also did moderately well, slightly increasing their seats to become the third largest party. The big losers were Beneš’ National Social Party: some of the mud from the time of the coup seemed to have stuck, with much of their support drifting to the People’s Party.
With the Communists currently ostracised, the People’s Party would lead the new National Front coalition, with Monsignor Jan Šrámek becoming the new Prime Minister. Whether through conservative, Christian or pro-Western policy positions, all the non-Communist parties joined a new National Front coalition. The pro-Turkish Democratic Party (which was more powerful in Slovakia but had retained a branch in the Czech Republic with clandestine Turkish support), the pro-Western Social Democrats and the pro-Czech but conservative Christian Freedom Party, plus Beneš own depleted National Social Party gave the coalition a comfortable working majority of 215 of the 300 seats. The only opposition would be provided by the Communists.
Jan Šrámek (b. 11 August 1870) was previously the prime minister of the Czechoslovak government-in-exile during GW2. He was the first chairman of the Czechoslovak People's Party and was a Monsignor in the Catholic church.
This meant the coalition would have a centre-right political position, pro-Western sympathies but with a strong seam of continuing support for the Turkish-led Bucharest Pact from the Democratic Party Deputy Prime Minister. The leader the Turks had supported into this new pro-Bucharest Pact (and Turkish) Democratic Party in the Czech Republic was the prominent Jan Garrigue Masaryk, who had been prominent in the Czech government-in-exile during GW2 and continued as Foreign Minister since 1946. He was concerned with retaining the friendship of the Soviet Union, but was dismayed by the veto they put on Czechoslovak participation in the Vandenberg Plan [his actual position re the Marshall Plan in OTL].
Jan Garrigue Masaryk (b. 14 September 1886) was a Czech diplomat and politician who served as the Foreign Minister of Czechoslovakia from 1940 to 1948 and also [in TTL] as Deputy Prime Minister in the new National Front Government formed in 1948, while retaining his role as Foreign Minister. [nb: And who does NOT die under suspicious circumstances of ‘defenestration’ in March 1948 in this time line].
This appointment made the result acceptable to Ankara. Beneš could also expect support for his bid to apply for Vandenberg Plan funds, despite the fact his own National Social Party had suffered losses in the parliamentary election.
---xxx---
Global Issues
The Committee on Control of the LN Atomic Energy Commission adjourned indefinitely on 30 March due to an impasse between the Soviet Union and the western powers over how to set up the organisational structure of the proposed International Atomic Agency. On 7 May the United States and Britain told the LN Atomic Energy Commission to abandon its efforts to devise an international control plan, blaming the Soviet Union for the impasse.
On 7 April The World Health Organisation was established. Then on 19 May US Secretary of State Arthur Vandenberg said during a press conference that Stalin's sincerity in promoting understanding between Russia and the United States would be demonstrated by showing co-operation on outstanding world issues before the League of Nations and other international agencies.
---xxx---
The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
With the reverses of the Chinese Communists in the first half of 1948, Mao Zedong sent a request for material support from the Soviet Union as he was forced back into guerrilla warfare. Stalin did what he could, but the Chinese Communists were at that time surrounded and isolated by both Nationalist Chinese and Japanese controlled territory, making the smuggling of military supplies difficult – but not impossible.
In Germany, the border was closed to all Western access on June 24 and the same applied to the Czech-German border after the events of February 1948 and the subsequent election results. The only Czech cross border access permitted was that associated with the Czech Communist Party. This was done in part due to tensions with the West, but probably more so due to the worsening internal security situation in Germany.
German border post hastily erected along the Czech border, June 1948.
Rumours persisted that the former Nazi ‘special forces terrorist’ Otto Skorzeny remained holed up somewhere in Germany, coordinating recalcitrant elements into terror squads.
Otto Skorzeny, notorious Nazi ‘special forces’ operator. Was he still at large in Germany’s mountains and forests with a band of die-hards?
While several non-Nazi, anti-communist and pro-democratic groups were also organising, more on a political basis. But, being banned by the Communist government of the DDR and the Soviet occupation forces and the MGB, their underground work in some cases led to sporadic outbreaks of street violence, sabotage and passive resistance.
Demonstrators throw rocks at Soviet tanks in Berlin, May 1948. Dissident groups were savagely repressed and remained a marginal threat to the ‘puppet’ DDR government and the Soviet occupation, but the heavy-handed response and earlier looting and impoverishment of the German economy was creating a well-spring of resentment and unrest. The Soviet response was to crack down even harder.
The situation in Poland was less intense, but quiet popular resistance to Soviet and Communist rule persisted, as it did in Denmark and Ukraine, where some residual partisan activity continued.
The Soviet policy of support for Kim Il Sung and the creation of de facto Communist control in North Korea was ramped up and, as we have seen, seemed to be making headway and Japanese control of the north in particular disintegrated.
Relations with Turkey remained cordial, but increasing strains such as over the Czech Republic and Turkey’s rather lassez-faire attitude to Bucharest Pact members receiving Vandenberg Plan funds was a more general source of growing distance between the two close wartime partners. Good relations were now primarily being maintained through the warm personal relationship between Stalin and Inönü.
Within the Soviet leadership, Stalin remained supreme, but it was noted he was of course growing older. None would mention it out loud and no successor was named, but certain figures were undoubtedly positioning themselves to either take over – or to at least preserve their position (and their lives) when the time came.
Other than NKVD the MGB chief Beria and Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, who we have already encountered a number of times, there were other key players in the Politburo at this time, including Georgy Malenkov (Deputy Premier of the Soviet Union), Andrei Zhdanov (Second Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union), Alexey Kuznetsov (Senior Secretary of Cadres of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union), Nikolai Voznesensky (Chairman of the State Planning Committee of the Soviet Union). And Nikita Kruschev, a full member of the Politburo since 1939, was rising in influence and at this time serving as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Ukraine (Bolsheviks).
In order of age, from left to right: Khruschev (b. 15 April 1894); Zhdanov (b. 26 February 1896); Malenkov (b. 6 December 1901); Voznesensky (b. 1 December 1903) and Kuznetsov (b. 20 February 1905).
By mid-1948, two major factions had formed within the Politburo. The ‘Moscow Group’ was led by Malenkov and Beria (apparently unaffected by his rumoured involvement in the abortive Czech coup), while the ‘Leningrad Group’ included Zdanov, Voznesensky and Kuznetsov. Malenkov seemed to be in the strongest position to succeed Stalin for now, but of course this was both changeable and hypothetical.
Stalin and Molotov wave to the 1948 May Day Parade at the Kremlin.
---xxx---
Nuclear Weapons
By the end of June 1948, the indigenous nuclear programs of the USSR (separate from the German program, which was terminated at this time with all extant weapons being owned by the Soviets), the US and the UK were all at varying levels of development, but each now had one or more atomic weapons in their arsenals, as the Soviets and the US continued to research and develop ballistic missile programs.
Turkey was still in the research and development stage and some years away from having an independent nuclear weapon program. Japan remained even further behind.
Wallace used the speech to publicise an open letter to Joseph Stalin featuring a six-point plan to end the Cold War: A general reduction of armaments, stopping all foreign exports of weapons, unrestricted trade between the two countries, freedom of movement between the two countries, free exchange of scientific information and the establishment of an UN agency for international relief.
In context of this timeline, this has the look of an appeal for the restoration of the wartime US-Soviet relationship. I don't see it happening, though.
Turkey would send in forces to “assist the legal government of the Czech republic to restore order, in accordance with Article VII of the Treaty of Bucharest.” The United States, Great Britain and France also issued a joint statement condemning the Czech coup attempt, calling it engineered "by means of a crisis artificially and deliberately instigated."
Faced with a stronger response than they had been expecting and a failure of the Soviet Union to offer firm support, let alone the threat of military assistance, the Communists backed down, ending the coup.
Stalin sent a personal telegram to Inönü assuring him he had neither instigated nor approved the actions of the Czech Communist putschists.
Good relations were now primarily being maintained through the warm personal relationship between Stalin and Inönü.
By mid-1948, two major factions had formed within the Politburo. The ‘Moscow Group’ was led by Malenkov and Beria (apparently unaffected by his rumoured involvement in the abortive Czech coup)
The personal relationship between Stalin and Inönü still seems solid, but Beria's continuing influence in the wake of this debacle leads me to suspect Stalin is not quite as innocent in all of this as he would have the Turks believe.
In the aftermath of this failed coup, Beria would purge the leadership of the police and remove the Communists from the National Front government coalition.
Whether through conservative, Christian or pro-Western policy positions, all the non-Communist parties joined a new National Front coalition. The pro-Turkish Democratic Party (which was more powerful in Slovakia but had retained a branch in the Czech Republic with clandestine Turkish support), the pro-Western Social Democrats and the pro-Czech but conservative Christian Freedom Party, plus Beneš own depleted National Social Party gave the coalition a comfortable working majority of 215 of the 300 seats.
In Germany, the border was closed to all Western access on June 24 and the same applied to the Czech-German border after the events of February 1948 and the subsequent election results.
Rumours persisted that the former Nazi ‘special forces terrorist’ Otto Skorzeny remained holed up somewhere in Germany, coordinating recalcitrant elements into terror squads.
While Inonu/Stalin may have a personal relationship, the next echelon of both sides are ready to move on. Turkey's next major alliance could be the T-square (Turkey/Tokyo). Well done by the Czechs. What side are the Slovaks? The Soviets need to rebuild Germany before it explodes. Thank you
Faced with a stronger response than they had been expecting and a failure of the Soviet Union to offer firm support, let alone the threat of military assistance, the Communists backed down, ending the coup. Stalin sent a personal telegram to Inönü assuring him he had neither instigated nor approved the actions of the Czech Communist putschists.
Would the Communists be punished at the polls for their audacious bid? Or would there be a reaction against the various pro-Western or -Turkish parties? Or would the more independent-minded Czech nationalists gain ground? It would be a vigorous campaign.
The conservative, pro-Turkish Democratic Party also did moderately well, slightly increasing their seats to become the third largest party. The big losers were Beneš’ National Social Party: some of the mud from the time of the coup seemed to have stuck, with much of their support drifting to the People’s Party.
Relations with Turkey remained cordial, but increasing strains such as over the Czech Republic and Turkey’s rather lassez-faire attitude to Bucharest Pact members receiving Vandenberg Plan funds was a more general source of growing distance between the two close wartime partners.
By mid-1948, two major factions had formed within the Politburo. The ‘Moscow Group’ was led by Malenkov and Beria (apparently unaffected by his rumoured involvement in the abortive Czech coup), while the ‘Leningrad Group’ included Zdanov, Voznesensky and Kuznetsov. Malenkov seemed to be in the strongest position to succeed Stalin for now, but of course this was both changeable and hypothetical.
Turkey was still in the research and development stage and some years away from having an independent nuclear weapon program. Japan remained even further behind.
In context of this timeline, this has the look of an appeal for the restoration of the wartime US-Soviet relationship. I don't see it happening, though.
It does indeed. Wallace has name recognition, but does he have any real clout or the possibility of actually carrying states in the electoral college? We shall see soon.
This is true - it strains the Old Relationship a bit, which is increasingly bound up with and reliant on the Old Men who lead the two blocs. Centrifugal force and the passage of time are exerting their influence.
The personal relationship between Stalin and Inönü still seems solid, but Beria's continuing influence in the wake of this debacle leads me to suspect Stalin is not quite as innocent in all of this as he would have the Turks believe.
Maybe, and Beria must tread a careful path, lest he offend Stalin while still quietly lending (or seeking) support to or from Malenkov and the Moscow Faction.
This worked out in quite an interesting way and could have gone in the Communist's favour. But would that have provoked an far worse falling out? Beria should be careful of what he wishes for!
It simmers away as the suppression of Germany continues with no moderating Western or democratic influence in its western portion in TTL. Stalin and his DDR cronies can still exert an iron grip - but will they squeeze too hard?
While Inonu/Stalin may have a personal relationship, the next echelon of both sides are ready to move on. Turkey's next major alliance could be the T-square (Turkey/Tokyo).
The Slovaks are independent here within Turkey's Bucharest pact umbrella per the post-GW2 settlement and have been relatively untroubled by any domestic disturbances so far.
Yes, though some of those friendships are getting strained between Moscow and Ankara. But the Czechs will have appreciated the eventual Turkish moral support, and they will be happy to see the Czech trying to realign with either the West or the Communist Bloc.
I don't think they have the resources to spare that the US does, by a long stretch. Especially with Germany so restive, keeping an eye on the West while having to massively garrison the Far East against the Japanese menace. The Soviets, despite the success of their war, are quite stretched and must also fund their own massively expensive nuclear program now.
It will take them a fair bit of time, without either Western or Soviet assistance. But then again, they don't seem to have any large-scale enemies against whom they would need such weapons and are in a strong position as a P-5 LNSC member. Their problems are more likely to relate to internal security, keeping the rather disparate UGNR and Bucharest Pact together and trying to drag their economy into actual great power status.
The primaries for the US presidential for the two main parties had been held and the candidates selected in June. Republican President Dewey would take Governor Earl Warren as his vice-presidential running mate in his bid for a second term. Harry Truman would lead the Democratic ticket with Senator Alben Barkley.
But Southern Democrats from thirteen states met in Birmingham, Alabama on 17 July to create their own segregationist faction called the States' Rights Democratic Party. South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond was elected as the party's presidential candidate, with Mississippi Governor Fielding L. Wright as his running mate.
Another potential threat to split the Democratic vote would come from former leading Democratic Party member Henry Wallace and his newly formed Progressive Party. On 24 July the 1948 Progressive National Convention began. Idaho Senator Glen H. Taylor was nominated as Wallace’s vice-presidential running mate. During his acceptance speech Wallace advocated an American withdrawal from alliance discussions with Western Europe “in a search for enduring peace" with the Soviet Union.
The Progressive Convention ended the next day with the adoption of a party platform pledging an end to segregation, outlawing the atomic bomb, strengthening of the League of Nations and an end to the Dewey Doctrine and the Vandenberg Plan.
Despite the challenge of the Progressives and Thurmond’s insurgent Democratic campaign, the 1948 election was still seen primarily as a contest between Dewey and Truman.
On 28 August, in the middle of the 1948 election campaign, the House Un-American Activities Committee issued an interim report claiming that numerous Communist espionage rings had infiltrated the American government during Great War II. Presidential Dewey ended his campaign with a speech before 19,000 in Madison Square Garden on 30 October, as all major contenders finished their own campaign and waited for the electorate’s verdict. The election was held on 2 November with almost every pre-election forecast indicated that Truman would be defeated.
In 1944, Dewey had beaten Roosevelt by just nine electoral college votes, after splitting the number of states evenly and Roosevelt having marginally won the total national popular vote.
In the Congress, the 1946 mid-terms had seen the Democrats increase their majority in the House of Representatives, but the Republicans had managed to eke out a slim majority in the Senate. Dewy hoped to not only win a second term, but to see if he could maintain his Senate majority and perhaps even win back the Representatives, though that would be a tougher task as the Congressional vote would not be split in the South.
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The first results came in on election night with the first states called being those with the clearest majority, as usual. There was early evidence of a swing to Truman in states where his States’ Rights Democratic opponents were not contesting, but some of the usually strongly Democratic southern states showed a range of swings to Thurmond, some of them huge. In fact, the first three states declared were for Thurmond with huge margins: Mississippi (80.8%), South Carolina (75%) and Alabama (72.2%), netting him 28 electoral college votes (EVs). Of the states where the winning candidate was polling more than 55% of the vote and so were first called, Truman took 71 EVs, Dewey 21 and Thurmond remained on 28. None of these states had ‘flipped’ to or from Dewey since the 1944 election, but Truman was down 28 EVs from states he would otherwise have been counting on.
As counting progressed, more states could be called, with those showing a winning majority of more than 52% for either candidate. Of these, another 76 went to Truman, 74 to Dewy and no more to Thurmond. But there were some worrying signs for Dewey, with Oklahoma (10) and Montana (4) flipping to Truman. It seemed a broad national swing towards Truman was on, with Truman on 147, Dewey 96 and Thurmond on 28 EVs.
With results following a similar pattern to the previous election, Dewey supporters retained hope despite the swing against them that was becoming clear.
Despite this, as the margins got closer Dewey was picking up states as he had last time, including the retention of New York with its massive 47 EVs and hanging onto the larger states of Pennsylvania (35), Michigan (19) and Missouri (15). And he was greatly heartened when Ohio (25) was brought into his column. Truman though picked up West Virginia (8), Maryland (8) and then Illinois (28) and Oregon (6) by very narrow margins. With Thurmond making no more gains, this left Truman on 228, Dewey on 227 and Thurmond on 28 EVs.
The ‘magic mark’ to reach an outright majority of college votes was 266 out of the 531 on offer. The loss to Truman of those Southern states was now looking very painful, with 48 more college votes on offer, all in states with margins of 0.3% or less. Once again, it had been a long night where counting extended into the next morning without a clear result, in some cases due to the complicating factor of the split Democratic vote in Virginia, Louisiana and Tennessee.
The first of these to be called was New Mexico (4), that was flipped into Truman’s column by a margin of just 50.3% to 49.7%. Truman then held Minnesota with 50.2% of its vote and Virginia (11) with 49.1% for Truman after Thurmond took around 12%. Thurmond then won Louisiana (10) comfortably enough with 46.7% of the vote, then Truman took Tennessee with 46.4% despite Thurmond stripping around 15% of the Democratic vote.
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These final results meant that Truman emerged with 266 electoral votes – the exact amount needed to declare a victory! Dewey had fallen well short in the end, though he had polled quite well despite an overall national swing against him. Had it not been for Thurmond’s insurgency, Truman would have been celebrating a clear victory. Although the Progressive Wallace had polled more votes nationally than Thurmond, he never came close to winning any state, doing best in New York (8.25%) and his home state of California (4.73%).
The House of Representatives and Senate elections of 1948 were not affected by any split in the Democratic vote. The clear swing against the Republicans carried through into an increased majority in the Representatives for the Democrats, gaining another 16 seats to hold 247. The results was worse for the Republicans in the Senate, where they had held 18 of the 32 Senate seats being contested. Ten states flipped to the Democrats while the Republicans only picked up Colorado from those who had been elected in the 1942 mid-terms, giving the Democrats a large Senate majority.
Despite expectations of a Democratic defeat in the Presidential poll as a result of their split vote in the south, they nationally saw a significant net swing towards them [Truman got a 01 % die roll – the absolute maximum national swing possible, +4%]. But state swings fluctuated as usual and with a winner-takes-all system in the electoral college for each state and the wild card of the break-away States’ Rights Democratic ticket in the South had made the final result more finely balanced.
One newspaper had called it early for Dewey – much to Truman’s later amusement.
Truman as President Elect would have to wait until January 1949 to be inaugurated and take over the reins of government. But he was unlikely to counter some of Dewey’s major policy settings, in particular the Vandenberg plan, which meshed with his own views. However, he would no doubt wish to revisit the Dewey Doctrine when he was in the White House. The Democrats would now hold both houses of congress, but the recent experience with the conservative southern wing of his party in the presidential poll meant Truman could not be complacent about that advantage.
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Western Europe and Canada
A referendum was held in the Dominion of Newfoundland on 22 July to decide its political future. A 52.3% majority voted to join Canada. A week later, the 1948 Summer Olympics opened in London. A record 59 nations were represented, although the Soviet Union chose not to send any athletes and did not permit Germany to participate.
Defence Ministers of Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg meeting in Paris announced an agreement on 28 September to establish a permanent common defence organisation for Western Europe. A month later, they announced plans to form a North Atlantic defensive alliance together with the United States and Canada, should those countries agree. The election of Truman a few days later made that outcome even more likely.
On 15 December, France surprised some many observers when their first experimental thorium atomic reactor, began operation at Fort de Châtillon.
The Zoé reactor, or EL-1 was built at the Fort de Châtillon in Fontenay-aux-Roses, a suburb of Paris.
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Palestine
Each time a ceasefire is broken by either or both sides, there will be a small chance that Turkey will decide to intervene, either diplomatically or militarily. 1% at first, then +1% on each subsequent occasion.
Fighting resumed in the Arab-Israeli War on 9 July when the four-week truce expired. LN mediator Folke Bernadotte said that Israel had been willing to extend the truce but that the Arabs had refused. Israeli forces launched Operation Danny with the goal of capturing territory east of Tel Aviv. Invoking Chapter VII of the League of Nations Charter for the first time on 15 July, the Security Council ordered Israel and the Arab League to stop fighting in Palestine or face sanctions.
Israeli soldiers advance during Operation Danny, aimed at securing and enlarging the corridor between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv by capturing the roadside cities Lod (Lydda) and Ramle, July 1948.
Both sides agreed to a ceasefire the following day and the truce went into effect on 18 July. Just six days later this truce was broken, with Israeli forces commencing Operation Shoter on 24 July, a new offensive targeting an area south of Haifa. It ended in Israeli success two days later. On the 27th they launched another attack to establish an enclave in the northern Negev desert, but had to retreat after heavy resistance.
The LN’s chief Palestine negotiator, Swedish diplomat Count Folke Bernadotte, in Palestine, July 1948.
On 6 August Egypt rejected Israel's proposal for direct peace negotiations on the Palestine situation. Acceptance of the proposal would have meant recognition of the Jewish state.
Fighting continued until 17 September, when Folke Bernadotte was assassinated in Jerusalem after members of the Zionist group Lehi opened fire on an LN convoy. Bernadotte and French LN observer André Serot were transported to Hadassah Hospital on Mount Scopus but were found to have died instantly. The next day 200 arrests were made in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv in connection with the assassination.
Count Bernadotte's final report to the United Nations was published posthumously on 20 September. It called for recognition of Israel but advocated transfer of the Negev area to Arabs, incorporation of all of Galilee into Israel and placing Jerusalem under LN control. The next day the Irgun dissolved and handed over its arms to the Israeli government in response to an ultimatum to either disband or be labelled a terrorist organisation.
A new LN-brokered ceasefire began on 22 October, the third since the conflict started. It lasted barely a week, with Israeli forces launching Operation Hiram, aimed at capturing the Upper Galilee region. It ended on the 31st, with Israeli forces claiming to have complete control of Galilee after a total rout of Fawzi al-Qawuqji's forces there.
Battles during October 1948.
The LN passed Security Council Resolution 61 on 4 November, calling on Egypt and Israel to withdraw their troops to positions occupied in the Negev on October 14 before fighting broke out there. The truce was agreed and four days later, Israel formally applied for membership in the League of Nations but fell seven Security Council votes short in its bid.
This latest truce collapsed on 22 December, when Israeli forces launched Operation Horev in the Western Negev with the objective of trapping the Egyptian Army in the Gaza Strip. The Battle of Hill 86 began as part of the operation. The Battle of Hill 86 ended in Egyptian tactical victory after Israeli forces retreated the next day. The Battles of the Sinai began when Israeli forces entered the Sinai Peninsula on the 28th.
Egyptian soldier with Beretta mod 38/49 during their successful defence of Hill 86, 23 December 1948.
The following day, the LN Security Council passed a British resolution demanding another ceasefire in the Negev desert and the establishment of a neutral zone between Israeli and Egyptian forces. Both sides considered this as the year ended. All through these truce collapses, interventionist voices gradually became louder in the Turkish government but so far they refrained from taking a more direct role, staying the course for now in supporting the efforts of the LN SC.
I don't think they have the resources to spare that the US does, by a long stretch. Especially with Germany so restive, keeping an eye on the West while having to massively garrison the Far East against the Japanese menace. The Soviets, despite the success of their war, are quite stretched and must also fund their own massively expensive nuclear program now.
Count Bernadotte's final report to the United Nations was published posthumously on 20 September. It called for recognition of Israel but advocated transfer of the Negev area to Arabs, incorporation of all of Galilee into Israel and placing Jerusalem under LN control.
Reduces border gore and conflict chances, but Negev isn't as valuable to the Arabs as it is to Jews as long as Egypt is friendly with Palestine and lets access via Suez. On the other hand, Galilee is much more fertile. Still, a flawed peace is better than a war for perfect ideals.
In our time line, does anyone know the source of Israel's Jewish pre-1948 population? I.e. what percentage was in Palestine pre-WWI, what percentage arrived between the wars and what percentage post WW2. Thanks
But Southern Democrats from thirteen states met in Birmingham, Alabama on 17 July to create their own segregationist faction called the States' Rights Democratic Party. South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond was elected as the party's presidential candidate, with Mississippi Governor Fielding L. Wright as his running mate.
Another potential threat to split the Democratic vote would come from former leading Democratic Party member Henry Wallace and his newly formed Progressive Party.
The Progressive Convention ended the next day with the adoption of a party platform pledging an end to segregation, outlawing the atomic bomb, strengthening of the League of Nations and an end to the Dewey Doctrine and the Vandenberg Plan.
On 28 August, in the middle of the 1948 election campaign, the House Un-American Activities Committee issued an interim report claiming that numerous Communist espionage rings had infiltrated the American government during Great War II.
These final results meant that Truman emerged with 266 electoral votes – the exact amount needed to declare a victory! Dewey had fallen well short in the end, though he had polled quite well despite an overall national swing against him. Had it not been for Thurmond’s insurgency, Truman would have been celebrating a clear victory.
Defence Ministers of Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg meeting in Paris announced an agreement on 28 September to establish a permanent common defence organisation for Western Europe. A month later, they announced plans to form a North Atlantic defensive alliance together with the United States and Canada, should those countries agree. The election of Truman a few days later made that outcome even more likely.
Invoking Chapter VII of the League of Nations Charter for the first time on 15 July, the Security Council ordered Israel and the Arab League to stop fighting in Palestine or face sanctions.
Israeli forces launched Operation Danny with the goal of capturing territory east of Tel Aviv.
Just six days later this truce was broken, with Israeli forces commencing Operation Shoter on 24 July, a new offensive targeting an area south of Haifa.
Fighting continued until 17 September, when Folke Bernadotte was assassinated in Jerusalem after members of the Zionist group Lehi opened fire on an LN convoy.
A new LN-brokered ceasefire began on 22 October, the third since the conflict started. It lasted barely a week, with Israeli forces launching Operation Hiram, aimed at capturing the Upper Galilee region.
This latest truce collapsed on 22 December, when Israeli forces launched Operation Horev in the Western Negev with the objective of trapping the Egyptian Army in the Gaza Strip.
Reduces border gore and conflict chances, but Negev isn't as valuable to the Arabs as it is to Jews as long as Egypt is friendly with Palestine and lets access via Suez. On the other hand, Galilee is much more fertile. Still, a flawed peace is better than a war for perfect ideals.
Probably about the same as the UN did in OTL ... which seems to be a bit, but compartmentalised and both sides getting blame, however fair or otherwise.
In our time line, does anyone know the source of Israel's Jewish pre-1948 population? I.e. what percentage was in Palestine pre-WWI, what percentage arrived between the wars and what percentage post WW2. Thanks
Which they were, based on the starting point from 1944 and the southern insurgency. It took a 1/100 die roll to get over the line. Not sure what would have happened in the event of no-one winning a clear majority in the College and not being an expert in US procedure for that: I would have had to research it a bit. Maybe Thirmond insisting on the VP and some Cabinet picks, plus some other (probably rather odious) policy promises in exchange for a casting vote?
No, that was the Progressive conference, so it was Wallace's pretty familiar lines. If Dewey determined his doctrine (which is a watered down and more realpolitik and less interventionist version of the OTL Truman Doctrine) he might have actually been held to it!
Yes, I decided to follow the OTL script for France here. Their position isn't that different to what it was in OTL, I think Giraud would be keen and they have even more incentive to pursue the nuclear path both for power generation and down the track their own deterrent, given they and the Low Countries are now the Western front line in Europe. And with a Soviet-puppet and still occupied Germany on their doorstep.
Otto Skorzeny remained on the loose in Germany after having escaped from a prison camp earlier in the year [in OTL it happened around about now]. Some isolated incidents of attacks on Soviet military and police targets in were attributed to him and his band of supposed post-Nazi fighters, but his whereabouts and involvement in any of these incidents remained unclear. Hardship and unrest persisted in Germany as summer turned to winter in the second half of 1948, but the Soviet occupation and its DDR puppets appeared to have things largely under control through continued repression and a spate of arrests.
The Deutsche Volkspolizei (DVP, German for "German People's Police"), commonly known as the Volkspolizei or VoPo, was the national police force of the German Democratic Republic (DDR) from 1945.
A DVP parade along the still war-damaged Unter den Linden in Berlin, July 1948.
Andrei Zhdanov, Second Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and key member of the ‘Leningrad Group’ that opposed Georgy Malenkov and Lavrentiy Beria’s ‘Moscow Group’ in the Politburo, died on 31 August 1948.
Andrei Zhdanov.
Aged only 52 at the time of his death, he had once been considered one of the front-runners to succeed Stalin but suffered from ill health and died of heart failure (not, apparently, by Beria’s hand, despite some conspiracy theories at the time among Kremlin-watchers). He was buried in the Kremlin Wall Necropolis on 2 September after a state funeral in which Joseph Stalin served as a pallbearer.
Andrei Zhdanov’s funeral procession, Moscow, 2 September 1948.
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China and Japan
July-December saw continued success for the joint-but-separate anti-Communist campaign waged by Nationalist China and Japan against Mao’s insurgency. On 31 December Chiang Kai-shek gave an address claiming a practical victory in the Civil War. He indicated he would be willing negotiate a peace settlement with the Communists in the Civil War, with an amnesty granted to most rank-and-file Communist fighters if Mao agreed to leave the country, perhaps to an exile in the Soviet Union.
By the end of 1948, Chiang Kai-shek was very pleased with how the civil war was going against Mao's Communists, while he also contemplated his next steps in reclamation of the Chines heartland from Japanese occupation.
Mao would consider his response, while China and Japan agreed to continue secret negotiations, brokered again by the US, on a longer-term settlement between them. Japan’s government had maintained internal peace, thanks largely to the release of pressure following the success in China. This had been aided by a further gradual relaxation of non-strategic trade restrictions with the US and the West, increased oil co-development projects with and imports from Turkey and a quiet period in the ongoing Vietnam insurgency in the second half of the year.
A Japanese oil tanker plying the route from Turkish-controlled and Japanese funded oil facilities in the Persian Gulf to Japan, 1948.
The main problem for Japan during this period was the ‘Korea Problem’, which came to a head in July 1948. But this also helped the Japanese government divert the more militant ‘Kwantung Faction’ in the Imperial Japanese Army. Between defending the long border with the Soviet Union, maintaining peace in eastern China, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria, the simmering insurgency in Vietnam and now the rapid escalation of tensions in Korea, they had plenty to keep them occupied and it dawned on these hawks that Japan’s very survival relied.
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Korea
On 17 July the Autonomous Region of Korea (the ARoK, or South Korea) was proclaimed by the Emperor of Japan. Syngman Rhee became the first Governor-General of the ARoK, by a vote of the constituent assembly, based in Seoul. On 24 August Syngman Rhee signed an agreement with the Japanese government providing for Japanese assistance in equipping and training South Korean security forces. The US also pledged to support the territorial integrity of the ARoK and in private urged the Japanese to develop a timetable for full Korean independence.
The Autonomous Region of Korea was established in Seoul on 17 July 1948. It would nominally cover the entire country, but only held effective sway in the south, becoming known informally as ‘South Korea’.
It would be left up to a democratically elected Korean government as to whether it wished to maintain membership of the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere – which appeared a very likely outcome if the plan was seen through. In return, the US would provide a guarantee of the ARoK’s independence from a growing perceived Communist threat in the north of the country, while US sanctions on certain strategic materials would be progressively lifted on a phased basis.
The flag of the ARoK.
This diplomatic play was timely, as on 9 September the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) was founded in Pyongyang with Kim Il Sung as the country's first Premier. They retained Soviet backing, with military advisors remaining in country and arms supplies supporting Kim’s new Communist republic. It was no surprise that neither side nor their respective patrons and supporters recognised the other regime as legitimate.
Kim Il Sung (centre) proclaims the DPRK at the joint meeting of the New People's Party and the Workers' Party of North Korea in Pyongyang, 9 September 1948. Two Soviet delegates are notable in their presence at the 'top table'.
Flag of the DPRK.
It was something of a blow to Japanese prestige, but with the ‘facts on the ground’ and the backing of a nuclear-armed Soviet Union, the two LNSC permanent members elected to maintain the peace rather than the renewal of all-out war between them only four years since the conclusion of the Treaty of Geneva.
In a deal brokered in the LNSC, the Soviet Union and Japan decided to agree to a provisional line of demarcation along the 38th parallel, which became the de facto border between the Soviet-backed DPRK and the Japanese-controlled ARoK.
The line of demarcationbetween North and South Korea, as agreed by Japan and the Soviet Union in 1948.
In a massive propaganda coup and gesture of legitimacy for Kim’s newly declared state, Stalin himself made a state visit soon afterwards.
Kim and Stalin are seen here during a celebratory banquet in Pyongyang in October 1948.
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Colonial Conflict: Malaya and Indonesia
British authorities in Malaya outlawed the Malayan Communist Party and its affiliates on 23 July as the security situation continued to deteriorate on the peninsula.
Late in the year, the Dutch government cancelled the 11-month long ceasefire in the Indonesian conflict and ordered its forces back into action. On 19 December they launched Operation Kraai with the objective of crushing the Indonesian Republic once and for all. By the following day it ended with the capture of the Indonesian Republican leadership at Yogyakarta.
Dutch troops enter Yogyakarta during Operation Kraai, December 1948.
Speaking before the LN Security Council on 22 December, Dutch delegate Jan Herman van Roijen called the invasion of the Indonesian Republic a "police action" over which the UN had no jurisdiction. The US State Department suspended $14.1 million in Vandenburg Plan aid to the Dutch East Indies pending "clarification" of the situation there. Two days later the LN Security Council ordered an immediate ceasefire in Indonesia and called on the Dutch government to release Sukarno and other political prisoners.
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South Asia
The League of Nations Commission for India and Pakistan adopted a three-part resolution (amending and amplifying Security Council Resolution 47 from April) on 13 July 1948, calling on the governments of India and Pakistan to agree to enter consultation with the Commission to determine the future status of all disputed regions in accordance with the will of the people in those regions. Both sides agreed to abide by the determinations of the Commission and its prescribed process.
On 18 August the Soviet Union vetoed Ceylon's application for membership in the United Nations, saying it was still dominated by Britain.
India and the princely state of Hyderabad came to an agreement, sponsored by a Turkish negotiator acting with the backing of the LNSC, for the peaceful integration of the State of Hyderabad into India on 18 September. Special provisions were allowed for the State to retain a locally autonomous government to regulate all internal and legal matters, with its regular armed forces integrated into the Indian Army and its Razakar militias organised into the Hyderabad State Guard. However, the more militant members formed a breakaway group to fight a guerilla campaign against the accession. Civil strife and years of bloodshed would follow.
Mir Osman Ali Khan, Asaf Jah VII, the Nizam of Hyderabad, seen here after agreeing to his state’s conditional accession to India in September 1948.
The Nizam remained the semi-autonomous monarch of Hyderabad and the arrangement allowed him to retain control of his enormous personal wealth, but at the cost of years of insurgency by Razakar radicals who felt betrayed by his pragmatic deal to preserving as much of Hyderabad’s hard-won political and cultural independence as he could.
The Coat of Arms of the Autonomous State of Hyderabad.
On 8 November Nathuram Godse confessed in court to the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi and explaining his motivation. He said that while he admired some of Gandhi's work, he considered him responsible for the creation of Pakistan and believed that the Gandhi policy of non-violence would make it easier for Pakistanis to occupy India.
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Turkey, the UGNR and the Bucharest Pact
The Turkish Parliament passed a new election law on 10 July guaranteeing a secret ballot and open vote counting in the presence of all political parties.
Riots broke out all over Italy in mid-July after Italian Communist leader Palmiro Togliatti was shot three times (but not killed) outside the Chamber of Deputies by a university student with Fascist connections, amid demonstrations objecting to the further partition of Italy as announced by Ankara.
The Italian Communist Party paper l’Unità reports on Togliatti’s shooting on 14 July 1948.
The Communists called for a general strike to start the next day but it was called off due to lack of popular support for it. Given the attempted assassin was a student from Sicily, some Communist leaders accused the notorious Mafia ‘Godfather’ and head of the Southern Italian ‘Gangster regime’, Vito Corleone, of complicity in the hit. Corleone was dismissive in his response to allegations of his involvement: “Really!? If I wanted that Communist cagacazzo dead, he’d be dead! You really think I’d send some fascist sfigato to do the job? Spare me. I have my standards.”
Left: Togliatti recovers in hospital, seen here reading a copy of l’Unità. Right, Vito Corleone: “Spare me. I have my standards.”
The administrative process for the ‘Second Italian Partition’ proceeded for the rest of 1948, as the new regional governments were established as constituent Glorious National Republics of the UGNR.
On 17 July the Czech government announced the arrest of 68 civilians and 3 soldiers it accused of being Communist spies who plotted to assassinate top government officials. However, Edvard Beneš, two-time President of Czechoslovakia was already in poor health after suffering two strokes in 1947. He was left exhausted by the stress of the attempted Communist coup of seven months before and died of natural causes at his villa in Sezimovo Ústí on 3 September 1948. The Czech National Government would continue to advocate for remaining within the Bucharest pact while also seeking Western support to rebuild and bolster it against Communist ‘encroachment and adventurism’.
Edvard Beneš (b. 28 May 1884, d. 3 September 1948).
Regarding the Truman edge case: more recent instances notwithstanding, and speaking Constitutionally, the outcome should go to the House of Representatives. Due to the Twelfth Amendment, President and Vice President are elected simultaneously on a single ticket, rather than separately, so no room for horse trading there. Now, certainly, there'd be some room for legislative agenda influence.
Turning now to the picture of the founding of the DPRK, why is Kim's portrait looking at me as if he's Silvester Stallone?!
Regarding the Truman edge case: more recent instances notwithstanding, and speaking Constitutionally, the outcome should go to the House of Representatives. Due to the Twelfth Amendment, President and Vice President are elected simultaneously on a single ticket, rather than separately, so no room for horse trading there. Now, certainly, there'd be some room for legislative agenda influence.
The Nizam remained the semi-autonomous monarch of Hyderabad and the arrangement allowed him to retain control of his enormous personal wealth, but at the cost of years of insurgency by Razakar radicals who felt betrayed by his pragmatic deal to preserving as much of Hyderabad’s hard-won political and cultural independence as he could.
Riots broke out all over Italy in mid-July after Italian Communist leader Palmiro Togliatti was shot three times (but not killed) outside the Chamber of Deputies by a university student with Fascist connections, amid demonstrations objecting to the further partition of Italy as announced by Ankara.
Hardship and unrest persisted in Germany as summer turned to winter in the second half of 1948, but the Soviet occupation and its DDR puppets appeared to have things largely under control through continued repression and a spate of arrests.
But this also helped the Japanese government divert the more militant ‘Kwantung Faction’ in the Imperial Japanese Army. Between defending the long border with the Soviet Union, maintaining peace in eastern China, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria, the simmering insurgency in Vietnam and now the rapid escalation of tensions in Korea, they had plenty to keep them occupied.
True. The scale of the challenges they face holding the line should keep the IJA from any military adventurism, but that doesn't mean they won't lose patience with Japan's democratic experiment...
On 31 December Chiang Kai-shek gave an address claiming a practical victory in the Civil War. He indicated he would be willing negotiate a peace settlement with the Communists in the Civil War, with an amnesty granted to most rank-and-file Communist fighters if Mao agreed to leave the country, perhaps to an exile in the Soviet Union.
Chiang seems to riding high and might have a chance of supressing his communist insurgency, but the thorny problem of the Japanese occupation isn't going to go away.
In a deal brokered in the LNSC, the Soviet Union and Japan decided to agree to a provisional line of demarcation along the 38th parallel, which became the de facto border between the Soviet-backed DPRK and the Japanese-controlled ARoK.
India and the princely state of Hyderabad came to an agreement, sponsored by a Turkish negotiator acting with the backing of the LNSC, for the peaceful integration of the State of Hyderabad into India on 18 September. Special provisions were allowed for the State to retain a locally autonomous government to regulate all internal and legal matters, with its regular armed forces integrated into the Indian Army and its Razakar militias organised into the Hyderabad State Guard.
However, the more militant members formed a breakaway group to fight a guerilla campaign against the accession. Civil strife and years of bloodshed would follow.
Riots broke out all over Italy in mid-July after Italian Communist leader Palmiro Togliatti was shot three times (but not killed) outside the Chamber of Deputies by a university student with Fascist connections, amid demonstrations objecting to the further partition of Italy as announced by Ankara.
The timing is rather unfortunate, coinciding as it does with Turkey's attempt to partition Italy. Hopefully the assassination attempt doesn't end up being traced back to Ankara!
We'll see if becomes a thing in the future. Good lateral thinking.
