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To All: thanks once more for all the comments. Please note, I'll be heading off for about a five week overseas trip from tomorrow. While there's a chance I may still get to an update or two during that time, it may not happen (depends on time and weather while travelling, as it's a cricket-playing tour plus sightseeing in between). Just so you know. I'll still be keeping an eye on the forum threads when possible.
Ho ho ho. Ok, “15 games for the four week tour”. They’re short form, 40 overs (an over is six balls) each in one innings per team format, take about five hours all up.
All right, here are some of my thoughts as pertaining to the global post-war situation at this point. I'm sure I'm repeating some comments that have already been made.
India/Pakistan was even wilder than historically, save for Jammu-Kashmir which was handled without a fight. Maybe we can hope for slightly less tension between India and Pakistan in this timeline. At least, the India-Pakistan war looks quite a bit more likely.
Hyderabad was pretty interesting. Too bad it wasn't a province with a coast-line that revolted. It would have been fun to see some coastal raj stay independent with the help of foreign support and then becoming wholly economically dependent on foreign powers keeping open the Sea-lanes, dissuading an Indian navy blockade...
Palestine is ending up quite similar to historical in the end. Even in this ATL, there really doesn't seem to be a solution that is actually somewhat acceptable to both sides. Prolonged Turkish intervention would be interesting, but also pretty pointless and more expensive in manpower and equipment than the UGN would like, so it does seem rather unlikely. We have seen how the British mandate struggled to the point of being pulled out. I do have to say that murdering a UN observer was rude and unnecessary, it is at least good that the Israelis took appropriate measures against the dipshits who thought that was a good idea.
France not ending up with a left wing parliament was a bit of a surprise, same for the US elections. Seems those populations don't want to rock the boat too much, for now. In the case of France, it is understandable that they might believe a centre-right government will be more proactive in making sure that France doesn't end up in the clutches of the Soviets.
Overall I think the dynamic between the Western Powers and the Soviets get a lot more interesting with Turkey, a rather powerful third party, looking to turn itself into a true major power that can chart it's own course by playing both sides against each other and selling large quantities of oil. The big question here is what happens with the Turkish Navy. For their oil exports they are dependent on global Sea-lanes, so they're going to have to chose. Either they political concessions and give discounts to foreign naval powers like the US, and to a lesser extent Japan, just as all those arab oil producers do today, outsourcing their naval security. Or, they actually build a powerful navy that is capable of protecting their shipping lanes from most potential adversaries (except for the USN which they'll never catch up with).
Turkish naval dominance over the Mediterranean should be achieved, and keeping basing rights in all of those territories Turkey is slowly releasing would be extremely helpful in achieving that. When combined with Turkish land-based Air power based all around the Med, even a relatively small Turkish navy can make it a nightmare for even the largest naval powers to enter and operate in the Med.
Of course, where to build this new Turkish Navy is a big question. The big Italian yards have the know-how and the space, but does Turkey want to take the risk of having their ships built in one of their de-facto dominions? Or will Turkey greatly expand it's own shipbuilding industry (with input from some Italians to speed things up) in order to build a world class navy at home?
Soviet deindustrialisation of Germany is a pretty bad move on all accounts by the Soviets, at least in the mid to long term. Germans will build new factories over time, and these will be more efficient and modern than those the Russians stole. It would have been more useful for the Soviets to leave German Industry in place, keeping the German workforce happier, or at least busier, and then have German and Soviet designers work together on rebuilding Soviet Industry. This would then result in the Soviets getting newer, better factories than Germany, all without stealing anything save for some blueprints and engineers. Really quite short-sighted and entirely in character for uncle Joe.
Right, jet lag mainly gone and a comprehensive new chapter covering events for the whole of 1949 written. First, some more feedback for the latest comments.
Had India revisited the issue and done it properly, in all likelihood they would have fared far worse in the end, and Hyderabad could not escape its isolation from the rest of the world in the long term. This drove the Nizam to quit while he could get the best deal possible.
True. The scale of the challenges they face holding the line should keep the IJA from any military adventurism, but that doesn't mean they won't lose patience with Japan's democratic experiment...
It is a delicate balance, especially with Japan's rapprochement policy generally working so far, the constant Soviet threat, the political success of the government and the more public and supportive role the Emperor is playing. The hardliners' strength may be fading somewhat - will they let it ride or try to mount some kind of reactionary putsch if goaded too far? This is what the Conservative government is carefully trying to avoid. Had a more left-leaning government gained power at the ballot box, a coup would have been almost certain.
Chiang seems to riding high and might have a chance of supressing his communist insurgency, but the thorny problem of the Japanese occupation isn't going to go away.
It's similar to the one agreed in OTL, so is still iffy. One change in the strategic dynamic here is Nationalist China and Japan controlling most of the North Korean border, rather than a sympathetic PRC as came to pass in OTL. So a little different here and maybe more difficult for Kim to do his thing ... though will that stop him from trying? Hmmm.
The timing is rather unfortunate, coinciding as it does with Turkey's attempt to partition Italy. Hopefully the assassination attempt doesn't end up being traced back to Ankara!
All right, here are some of my thoughts as pertaining to the global post-war situation at this point. I'm sure I'm repeating some comments that have already been made.
India/Pakistan was even wilder than historically, save for Jammu-Kashmir which was handled without a fight. Maybe we can hope for slightly less tension between India and Pakistan in this timeline. At least, the India-Pakistan war looks quite a bit more likely.
Hyderabad was pretty interesting. Too bad it wasn't a province with a coast-line that revolted. It would have been fun to see some coastal raj stay independent with the help of foreign support and then becoming wholly economically dependent on foreign powers keeping open the Sea-lanes, dissuading an Indian navy blockade...
The hope is there and so far it has indeed been less tense, with a first OTL war over Kashmir being avoided. But Kashmir, and its even less favourable disposition for Pakistan than in OTL, will continue to rankle. On Hyderabad: exactly. Had it not been so isolated the Nizam might have tried to go it alone. But it just didn't seem feasible to me. A deal would have been done.
Palestine is ending up quite similar to historical in the end. Even in this ATL, there really doesn't seem to be a solution that is actually somewhat acceptable to both sides. Prolonged Turkish intervention would be interesting, but also pretty pointless and more expensive in manpower and equipment than the UGN would like, so it does seem rather unlikely. We have seen how the British mandate struggled to the point of being pulled out. I do have to say that murdering a UN observer was rude and unnecessary, it is at least good that the Israelis took appropriate measures against the dipshits who thought that was a good idea.
Yes, its taken a largely similar line so far, with the exception of Lebanon and Syria in particular sitting it out under Turkish control being the biggest POD. I think that would have weakened the Arab prosecution of the war, too. When I read of that assassination, which I hadn't really heard of before, I thought it was an outrage: it just had to be punished or the nascent Israel would have surely been frozen out and discredited in the UN, where it was trying to gain recognition.
France not ending up with a left wing parliament was a bit of a surprise, same for the US elections. Seems those populations don't want to rock the boat too much, for now. In the case of France, it is understandable that they might believe a centre-right government will be more proactive in making sure that France doesn't end up in the clutches of the Soviets.
France has been interesting and pretty finely balanced since the war. Whether it can continue that way or not remains in the lap of the RNG gods! The US had varied from OTL a bit, but with Truman winning in 1948 it is likely to return to a more traditional path for the next term. And Dewey was not that radical departure anyway.
Overall I think the dynamic between the Western Powers and the Soviets get a lot more interesting with Turkey, a rather powerful third party, looking to turn itself into a true major power that can chart it's own course by playing both sides against each other and selling large quantities of oil. The big question here is what happens with the Turkish Navy. For their oil exports they are dependent on global Sea-lanes, so they're going to have to chose. Either they political concessions and give discounts to foreign naval powers like the US, and to a lesser extent Japan, just as all those arab oil producers do today, outsourcing their naval security. Or, they actually build a powerful navy that is capable of protecting their shipping lanes from most potential adversaries (except for the USN which they'll never catch up with).
I agree re Turkey. I can see their bloc trying to appeal to the emerging independent powers, especially like India and Chiang's China, who have their own differences with but also interests in the Communists, old imperialist Japan and the West. The Turks will be trying to build their navy quite assiduously I think, but it will never reach the scale of Japan, the UK or US. Though it would like to have significant power in the Med, the Black Sea and the Gulf/Red Sea, at least.
Turkish naval dominance over the Mediterranean should be achieved, and keeping basing rights in all of those territories Turkey is slowly releasing would be extremely helpful in achieving that. When combined with Turkish land-based Air power based all around the Med, even a relatively small Turkish navy can make it a nightmare for even the largest naval powers to enter and operate in the Med.
Of course, where to build this new Turkish Navy is a big question. The big Italian yards have the know-how and the space, but does Turkey want to take the risk of having their ships built in one of their de-facto dominions? Or will Turkey greatly expand it's own shipbuilding industry (with input from some Italians to speed things up) in order to build a world class navy at home?
Agreed. I think they will probably still be building under licence for a while, mainly in Turkey but no reason they could outsource construction work within the UGNR, especially Italy.
Soviet deindustrialisation of Germany is a pretty bad move on all accounts by the Soviets, at least in the mid to long term. Germans will build new factories over time, and these will be more efficient and modern than those the Russians stole. It would have been more useful for the Soviets to leave German Industry in place, keeping the German workforce happier, or at least busier, and then have German and Soviet designers work together on rebuilding Soviet Industry. This would then result in the Soviets getting newer, better factories than Germany, all without stealing anything save for some blueprints and engineers. Really quite short-sighted and entirely in character for uncle Joe.
This bloody vengeance approach to Germany will likely end up biting the Soviets on the bum, whether it erupts into open resistance eventually or not. But I reckon it's something they would do, especially under Stalin.
The year 1949 would see a number of long-running post-war crises resolved or at least suppressed, though not all. It would also see the multi-polar world strategic situation begin to materialise, with a mixture of multilateral pacts and rising independent or non-aligned major powers begin to develop.
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Palestine: The Arab-Israeli War
Recap. The latest truce had collapsed on 22 December. The Battles of the Sinai began when Israeli forces entered the Sinai Peninsula on the 28th. As 1948 ended, both sides were considering a new LN Security Council resolution demanding another ceasefire. The Turkish government still supported the efforts of the LN SC and had so far refrained from intervening directly from its positions in Lebanon and Syria.
On 2 January the Battles of the Sinai ended when Israeli forces withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula. The next day the final major combat operation of the Arab-Israeli War was launched as Israel attempted but failed to encircle all Egyptian forces in Palestine and drive them back to Egypt in the Battle of Rafah. A new ceasefire went into effect on 7 January.
The Battles of the Sinai, December 1948 – January 1949.
Armistice Negotiations with UN mediator Ralph Bunche between Israel and Egypt began on 13 January and resulted and a general armistice agreed on the 24th. Israel and Transjordan [the last opposing Arab state in Palestine in ATL, it was Syria in OTL] signed a ceasefire agreement similar to the one already signed between Israel and Egypt on 11 March. On 3 April they also concluded a general armistice agreement, bringing the Arab-Israeli War to an end.
On 26 April Transjordan changed its name to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The following day, the Lausanne Conference of 1949 formally concluded Arab-Israeli War. The ‘Green Line’ was the demarcation line set out in the 1949 Armistice Agreements between the armies of Israel and those of its neighbours (Egypt and Jordan) after the 1948 Arab–Israeli War and served as the de facto border of the State of Israel. But the Green Line was intended as a demarcation line rather than a permanent border.
The ‘Green Line’ demarcations of 1949.
The League of Nations General Assembly admitted Israel to membership in the LN by a vote of 37-12 on 11 May 1949.
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Indonesia
Recap. The Dutch government had cancelled the 11-month long ceasefire in and ordered its forces back into action on 19 December 1948. The next day they captured the Indonesian Republican leadership at Yogyakarta. In the LN Security Council, the Dutch called the invasion of the Indonesian Republic a "police action" over which the LN had no jurisdiction. But the US State Department suspended Vandenberg Plan aid to the Dutch East Indies and the LN Security Council ordered an immediate ceasefire, calling on the Dutch government to release Sukarno and other political prisoners.
On 1 January the Dutch authorities proclaimed that fighting on Java was at an end with the exception of "rebellious elements." Four days later Dutch paratroopers took the Sumatran city of Rengat and reportedly carried out a massacre of civilians there. The LN Security Council voted 8-0 on 28 January to approve a plan to transfer sovereignty of the Dutch East Indies to a new United States of Indonesia by July 1950. The Dutch attacked the plan as amounting to imposing an LN "guardianship" and warned that it would lead to lawlessness and disorder if implemented. But on 6 February the Dutch government capitulated and announced that it would transfer sovereignty over Indonesia before the 1 July 1950 deadline.
Fighting still continued in Indonesia, with Indonesian Republic forces launching a general offensive on 1 March 1949 against the Dutch in Yogyakarta. Indonesian troops held the city for six hours before retreating but had won a moral and diplomatic victory. On 24 June Dutch troops began their LN-supervised withdrawal from the Indonesian Republic's capital of Yogyakarta. Formal ceasefire orders were issued to both Dutch and Indonesian forces on 3 August, effective at midnight on 10 August in Java and 14 August in Sumatra.
The Dutch–Indonesian Round Table Conference ended on 2 November with ratification of the Hague Agreement between Netherlands and Indonesia, with the Netherlands agreeing to transfer sovereignty to the United States of Indonesia by 30 December 1949. The Indonesian Parliament ratified the Dutch-Indonesian agreement to establish a sovereign United States of Indonesia by a vote of 226 to 62 on 14 December.
Sukarno was elected the first president of the United States of Indonesia by electors from all sixteen states of the Republic on 16 December, then Queen Juliana of the Netherlands transferred sovereignty over Indonesia in a ceremony in Amsterdam on the 27th. Another long-running hotspot had been extinguished.
Sukarno, elected President of Indonesia, 16 December 1949.
Indonesian Vice-president Hatta and Dutch Queen Juliana at the signing ceremony which took place at the Royal Palace of Amsterdam on 27 December 1949.
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China
Recap. The second half of 1948 saw continued success for the joint-but-separate campaign waged by Nationalist China and Japan against Mao’s Communist guerrillas. On 31 December Chiang Kai-shek had given an address claiming a practical victory in the Civil War. He would be willing negotiate a peace settlement, with an amnesty granted to most rank-and-file Communist fighters if Mao agreed to leave the country, perhaps to an exile in the Soviet Union. Mao considered his response.
Meanwhile, China and Japan agreed to continue secret negotiations, brokered again by the US, on a longer-term settlement between them. But these would progress slowly during 1949, while both sides waited to see how the Chinese Civil War would be resolved.
On 26 March 1949 the Communist Central Committee of China announced that it had voted to enter peace talks with the Nationalist government in Nanking. While Mao denounced the Nationalist Chinese peace ultimatum as tantamount to unconditional surrender, he asked for a ceasefire and further negotiations. That call was rejected by Chiang and heavy fighting continued, with the Nationalists continuing to hammer home their tactical advantage for the rest of the year, hounding Mao’s remaining guerrilla cells mercilessly.
By 2 October the fighting was as good as over. In the following months, the Soviet Union announced diplomatic recognition of Chiang’s (Nationalist) Republic of China in return for peace and the repatriation of Mao and any fighters who wished to accompany him to the Soviet Union under a flag of truce and an amnesty for the rest of the rank and file who stayed. Under a complicated “Two Chinas Policy”, the Chinese Communist government was still recognised by the Soviets and established itself in exile in Vladivostok on 8 December. Mao Zedong arrived in Moscow on 16 December to confer with Joseph Stalin.
A sombre Mao is welcomed by Stalin in Moscow in December 1949. It would become apparent that neither leader considered the matter of China’s future to be settled despite the recent peace agreement that had ended the Chinese Civil War. But for now, their plans remained on hold – and highly classified.
In China, Chiang moved to consolidate his new borders. The next matter would be the resumption of the delicate and controversial negotiations with Japan over the future of Japanese-occupied China, in early 1950.
Chiang Kai-Shek signs a ‘Proclamation of Victory and Amnesty’ in the Chinese Civil War, Nanking, December 1949.
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Korea
Recap. On 17 July 1948 the Autonomous Region of Korea (the ARoK, or South Korea) had been proclaimed by the Emperor of Japan with Syngman Rhee becoming its first Governor-General. On 9 September the Democratic People's Republic of Korea had been declared by Kim Il-Sung. In a deal brokered in the LNSC, the Soviet Union and Japan decided to agree to a provisional line of demarcation along the 38th parallel between the Soviet-backed DPRK and the Japanese-controlled ARoK.
North Korean leader Kim Il Sung met with Joseph Stalin at the Kremlin on 5 March 1949 and secured an agreement for the USSR to provide North Korea with extensive financial credit. In private, Kim informally broached the subject of reuniting Korea by force but was rebuffed.
Kim Il-Sung being received in Moscow, March 1949.
The South Korean Army, with Japanese assistance, launched a spring offensive against an uprising in Jeju uprising in March, with Rhee issuing orders to ‘eradicate’ the Communist insurgents.
On 7 June, Japan called Korea "a testing ground in which the validity and practical value of the ideals and principles of civilisation against the practices of communism which have been imposed upon the people of North Korea." They called on the US and other Western nations to join them in providing economic aid to the fledgling ARoK, which they pledged would be granted formal independence by the end of 1950, though remaining under Japanese influence within the GEACPS. The US undertook to examine options to do so, but this would be contingent on “real progress in the program to grant South Korea genuine independence under a democratic constitution” and “the fair resolution of the status of Occupied China”.
---xxx---
Japan
The Emperor’s involvement and the Conservative-Liberal governments significant popular support also provided a powerful deterrent to the hardline military faction, which saw its importance continue to ebb in the post-war years. In effect, they were allowed to largely run the main forces confronting the Soviet Union along the long border in Mengkukuo and Manchukuo, in return for staying out of domestic politics and letting Tokyo and the more moderate military bloc run policy and operations in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Pacific, where more nuance was required.
Emperor Hirohito’s increasingly prominent public profile and indirect political support saw the government’s stocks remain high through 1948 and into 1949.
General elections were held in Japan on 23 January 1949. Their outcome would set the scene for which domestic and foreign policies would be pursued for the next crucial term. Japan had to cope with many conflicting issues and difficulties as it tried to maintain its delicate strategic position - especially in China, Korea and Vietnam – and to keep its GEACPS faction together while keeping the harder line military elements from causing trouble.
The April 1947 elections had seen the governing coalition between the newly renamed Conservative Party (formerly the Control Clique) and the Liberals (actually fairly conservative market liberals) maintain a strong majority in the lower house (312 out of 468 seats), well ahead of the more left-leaning opposition coalition and a large independent bloc. The Conservative PM Okada Keisuke (now having just turned 81) and his Liberal deputy Ichirō Hatoyama once again contested as leaders of their respective parties.
The governing coalition performed strongly, especially the Conservatives, though the Liberals lost a few seats. The Coalition’s majority increased to 330 (a net gain of 18) but the Conservatives still needed the Liberals to govern, so their policies would still be moderated. Of the opposition parties, all the Leftists lost seats, with the Communists being wiped out and the Socialists losing heavily.
The result heavily bolstered the cautious approach of the government, vindicated their policies in Korea, rapprochement with the West and a practical anti-Communist accommodation with Nationalist China. The military was currently dominated by the ‘Realist’ faction, with the hard-liners realising the Empire’s survival was at stake against the rising Communist threat. Vietnam remained largely dormant through 1949 but Korea continued to build as the next international flashpoint.
If Japan had to fight the Soviets alone, they knew they would be doomed, even more so if they remained at loggerheads with Chiang and isolated from possible Western support and still well behind in the nuclear stakes. Turkish oil was valuable and kept them going, but it would not be enough to withstand Stalin. They needed to eliminate as many enemies as possible while developing what friends – or at least ‘enemies of their enemies’ as they could.
Therefore, 1950 would herald the beginning of serious talks with Chiang, continued accommodation over Korea, the use of the LN to hold off Stalin and attempts to engage the US and other Western powers in recognising Communism as the great threat of the times, rather than waning Japanese imperialism.
---xxx---
India and Pakistan
Recap. India and the princely state of Hyderabad came to an agreement for the peaceful integration of the State of Hyderabad into India on 18 September. Pakistan was still trying to end its own stand-off with the princely state of Kalat to accede to Pakistani rule, but nothing was resolved through 1948 and the whole of 1949. This left Pakistan in a weakened position and made them more amenable to mediation and negotiation with India under LN auspices.
Delayed Accession die rolls for Peaceful Persuasion. 1/12 chance per month of resolution roll:
1-90%: accession to Pakistan (no further action)
91-100%: independence asserted (Pakistan reacts)
If independence asserted:
1-95%: armed Pakistan intervention then each month 1-70% suppressed, 71-90% continue rolling until outcome, 91-95% long term guerrilla activity; 96-100% independence (Pakistan casus belli).
The LN Security Council’s three-member commission to mediate the final Indo-Pakistani border settlement for Kashmir throughout 1949. Through this process, the two powers managed to avoid any conflict over this flashpoint, where India had taken most of the disputed province after the partition [with no war as had broken out in OTL].
On 13 October Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru addressed both houses of the US Congress with a speech assuring the US that his country would not stay neutral "where freedom is menaced, or justice threatened," but stopped short of pledging military assistance. This was taken to mean while it generally identified with the West, it did not consider itself bound by any mutual defence obligation. In this sense, like China, India was beginning to emerge as a ‘non-aligned’ major power, not formally joining any of the four major factions now emerging in a multi-polar world.
Jawaharlal Nehru addresses a joint sitting of the US Congress, 13 October 1949.
---xxx---
US & Canada
Recap. The Democrats now held the Presidency and majorities in both houses of the US Congress, but the recent experience with the conservative southern wing of his party in the presidential poll meant Truman could not be complacent about that advantage. In Canada, a referendum was held in the Dominion of Newfoundland on 22 July 48 to decide its political future. A 52.3% majority voted to join Canada.
The inauguration of Harry S. Truman was held in Washington, D.C on 20 January. It was the first US presidential inauguration to be televised. putting forth an ambitious set of proposals known as the Fair Deal. He also announced the Vandenburg Plan would be continued – and perhaps even expanded.
President Truman’s inaugural address, 20 January 1949.
But the so-called ‘Dewey Doctrine’ would be re-examined by the new administration. Truman named Dean Acheson as Vandenberg's successor and in late April signed a bill extending the Vandenberg Plan for another 15 months.
On 23 March the British North American Act 1949 was enacted in the United Kingdom to confirm to give effect to the Terms of Union agreed to between Canada and Newfoundland. Newfoundland became the 10th province of Canada on 31 March.
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The Establishment of NATO
Recap. Defence Ministers of Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg meeting in Paris announced an agreement on 28 September to establish a permanent common defence organisation for Western Europe. A month later, they announced plans to form a North Atlantic defensive alliance together with the United States and Canada, should those countries agree. The election of President Truman in the US a few days later made that outcome even more likely.
On 3 March Norway rejected the Soviet Union's offer of a non-aggression pact and accepted an invitation to join the North Atlantic treaty negotiations. On the 18th a draft of the proposed North Atlantic treaty was released to the public. The Parliament of Iceland voted 37-13 to end the country's traditional policy of isolationism and join the North Atlantic alliance on 30 March. On 4 April, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed in London [Washington in OTL], establishing the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
Ratifications followed, with the legislatures of Canada (29 April), Belgium (4 May), the UK (12 May), Luxembourg (31 May), the US (21 July), France (27 July) and the Netherlands (3 August) all formalising membership. On 24 August Prime Minister Attlee of the UK [Truman in OTL] declared the North Atlantic Treaty to be in effect following deposit by France of the last required instrument of ratification. This represented the formal end of the old GW2 ‘Allies’ collective defence arrangements, with the rest of the previous Allies remained simply more broadly Western aligned (to varying degrees) without further treaty commitments for mutual defence. NATO was the West’s answer to the Warsaw (USSR-led) and Bucharest (Turkish-led) Pacts and Japan’s Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere factions.
NATO was established in 1949 [in ATL without Italy].
---xxx---
France
Recap. The French elections of 1946 had seen the governing Giraudist coalition returned with another narrow margin, with Henri Giraud continuing as President and Henri d’Astier as Prime Minister of the Fourth Republic.
On 11 March 1949, Giraud lost the Presidency: not through any political upheaval, but by his death at the age of 70. His protégé d’Astier assumed the Presidency at the age of 51 and would lead France into NATO, following the policies of Giraud and the AF-Conservative Giraudist coalition.
Henri d’Astier, the new President of France from March 1949.
---xxx---
USSR, Germany & Relations with the West
Recap. In December 1948 Otto Skorzeny remained on the loose in Germany after having escaped from a prison camp earlier in the year. Hardship and unrest persisted in Germany as summer turned to winter in the second half of 1948, but the Soviet occupation and its DDR puppets appeared to have things largely under control through continued repression and a spate of arrests.
In an interview with a reporter from the International News Service in late January 1949, Joseph Stalin said he had "no objection" to meeting with President Truman at some mutually acceptable place to discuss a US-Soviet peace pact. A few days later, Truman stated at his weekly press conference that he would only meet with Stalin if the Soviet leader came to Washington as his personal guest. The president reiterated the determination of the United States to not enter negotiations with the Soviet Union outside of the framework of the League of Nations.
On 22 February French Communist Party leader Maurice Thorez suggested that French workers should aid the Red Army in the event of a war between the USSR and the West. French political leaders demanded that the government consider taking legal action against Thorez. Shortly afterwards Italian Communist leader Palmiro Togliatti (recently having survived an assassination attempt in 1948) echoed Thorez's recent remarks by declaring that Italian Communists would be duty-bound to assist the Red Army if it should invade Italy “in pursuit of an aggressor.” This outraged the Turkish government, even as the Soviets insisted Togliatti had been ’free-lancing’ and not acting under Soviet encouragement.
In apparent Kremlin power plays, in March Andrey Vyshinsky succeeded Vyacheslav Molotov as Soviet Foreign Minister and soon after Aleksandr Vasilevsky replaced Nikolai Bulganin as Minister of the Armed Forces of the Soviet Union. As usual, no comment was provided by Stalin or the Kremlin, which maintained its usual opacity. Nikita Khrushchev was made a secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in December.
Nikita Kruschev, promoted within the Politburo in December 1949.
In Germany, a massive explosion heavily damaged the town of Prüm in the Eifel mountains in western Germany on 15 July. An ammunition depot blew up for reasons that were never determined, killing 12 people and leaving one of the largest man-made explosion craters in existence.
The aftermath of Skorzeny’s asserted guerilla attack on Prüm, July 1949.
But Otto Skorzeny claimed it as an attack on the “despised Soviet occupiers and their traitorous German Communist collaborators” and promised further such attacks. He was earning the reputation as ‘the most dangerous man in Europe’ as many incidents, accurately or not, were ascribed to him and his small band of German nationalist die-hards.
Otto Skorzeny, on the run somewhere in Germany, 1949: the most dangerous man in Europe?
The more moderate wing of German resistance was led by the exiled Social Democrats, with a series of strikes in Berlin and other German cities occurring during the year. On 15 September Konrad Adenauer became first Chancellor of “Free Germany” at the head of a government-in-exile established in Paris with French, British and US financial and moral support – though not formal diplomatic recognition. Adenauer claimed that the German Democratic Republic was illegal and that Free Germany had "responsibility" for all Germans.
Konrad Adenauer, ‘Free German’ Chancellor-in-Exile, 1949.
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Turkey and the Bucharest Pact
Turkey continued to pursue a careful policy of maintaining generally friendly relations with both the West and the Soviet Union, much as it had during GW2. It would buy weapons and other trade goods from both blocs, with any purchased land systems often provided by the USSR, naval hardware predominantly through the US and aircraft from both. With trade relations – especially in exported oil – also now strong with Japan, Turkey sought to develop its own ‘fourth world faction’, still under the guidance of Ismet Inönü and his ruling CHP.
1949 saw the steady and peaceful development of Turkey, the UGNR and its Bucharest Pact alliance. Madagascar for now remained tense but peaceful as Turkey sought to stabilise the former French colony for either membership of the UGNR or independence. But the next and most serious test for the long-time ruling party would be in May 1950, with legislative elections due, with the President being chosen indirectly, via the legislature. These elections would be the most open yet in Turkey, following post-war reforms led by the Milli Şef himself.
President Inönü greeted by an enthusiastic crowd in Izmir, 1949.
It's a pretty balanced world. Shame about China but Japan is still looking by far the weakest of the 4 big powers and for some reason still committed to fighting for Mongolia.
The US and USSR should really make some kind of deal, given how aside from China, they're pretty much in agreement over spheres at this point.
Turkey is doing well but seems to have made its first great power decision to protect and empower Israel. We'll see how well that decision goes.
Shortly afterwards Italian Communist leader Palmiro Togliatti (recently having survived an assassination attempt in 1948) echoed Thorez's recent remarks by declaring that Italian Communists would be duty-bound to assist the Red Army if it should invade Italy “in pursuit of an aggressor.” This outraged the Turkish government, even as the Soviets insisted Togliatti had been ’free-lancing’ and not acting under Soviet encouragement.
But the next and most serious test for the long-time ruling party would be in May 1950, with legislative elections due, with the President being chosen indirectly, via the legislature. These elections would be the most open yet in Turkey, following post-war reforms led by the Milli Şef himself.
The year 1949 would see a number of long-running post-war crises resolved or at least suppressed, though not all. It would also see the multi-polar world strategic situation begin to materialise, with a mixture of multilateral pacts and rising independent or non-aligned major powers begin to develop.
Under a complicated “Two Chinas Policy”, the Chinese Communist government was still recognised by the Soviets and established itself in exile in Vladivostok on 8 December.
I suppose the question is whether Mao (with Soviet backing) succeeds in undermining Chiang's power over the longer term or not? For now, Chiang looks secure.
Japan had to cope with many conflicting issues and difficulties as it tried to maintain its delicate strategic position - especially in China, Korea and Vietnam – and to keep its GEACPS faction together while keeping the harder line military elements from causing trouble.
Japan seems to be the great power facing the most serious difficulties. It is hard to see a compromise being reached with China that would be acceptable to both parties, and it looks like we're heading for a hot war in Korea - which could leave Japan very exposed indeed.
This is a very pale shadow of the OTL NATO, but it's a good counter-balance to Soviet power in Europe and will probably help keep the peace. Hopefully this East-West divide will prove a little less dangerous in this multi-polar world - although the proliferation of nuclear powers by this early date is concerning.
On 15 September Konrad Adenauer became first Chancellor of “Free Germany” at the head of a government-in-exile established in Paris with French, British and US financial and moral support – though not formal diplomatic recognition.
Interesting. Adenauer's situation has a lot in common with Mao's, although I don't see democrats in Germany managing to loosen Stalin's grip any time soon.
I suppose the question is whether Mao (with Soviet backing) succeeds in undermining Chiang's power over the longer term or not? For now, Chiang looks secure.
China is now basically in an OTL India situation where they're connected to the world economy immedaitly and won't have any protection from it. So they'll become a big economic powerhous eventually but they'll have decades of being taken advantage of by the US and Europe to go through first.
Hopefully this East-West divide will prove a little less dangerous in this multi-polar world - although the proliferation of nuclear powers by this early date is concerning.
There's a lot more reason for mutual cooperation given how the treaty as written removed almost all border tensions outside Asia, and that's being kept alive pretty much entirely because of Japanese bullheadedness and will eventually fall to natural borders again (Mongolia with russiaan oversight/into the USSR, Korea either split or unified, Vietnam indepednant etc).
The only last source of contention is where Russia and Turkey got their ambitious stretch goals: Germany and Italy. Can't see Italy staying stable and secure under the UGNR when they're pulling stuff like appointing a mafia state...and Stalin could have built a very loyal and stable puppet in Germany but...uh...didn't.
The green line is there to stay. Unless Turkey goes and messes with it. I don't see the Arab states fighting Israel for at least a decade to come.
Indonesia was lost the moment the Dutch didn't get international support for their intervention.
With no Communist Chinese state, Kim Il Sung's People's republic is a lot more isolated than it was historically. If there is to be a Korean war in TTL, I don't see the North Koreans hold on for as long as they did historically. They might even loose the war. Sure, the Soviets will support them, but most of their military is probably positioned to counter NATO and the Bucharest Pact in Europe. I definitely don't see them sending the same level of support the Chinese did OTL. On top of that, if Japan holds on to Manchukuo until then, and/or if it becomes a non-communist state (or part of Chiang's China) the US-Japan(-China) coalition + whomever wants to join in bashing the Communists, gets to attack from both the North and the South. Even without formal Nationalist Chinese involvement, I'd expect Chiang's regime to facilitate anti-communists volunteers aiding South Korea and doing it's best to round up those who might want to go help the Communists. This Korean War could even end in an all out victory for the South. Unless the North gets nukes, that is.
Of course, Japan-China negotiations can still break down, and if the Japanese hardliners get into power, I can even see another SIno-Japanese war happen. The hardliners would probably go for North Korea first though, and that could still turn into a fiasco that gets them voted out of power before tensions with China become so high they cannot be contained by their common hatred of communists anymore.
India is getting pretty strong, and Pakistan, still divided isn't going to be in a position to take Kashmir anytime soon. I see heavy Pakistani militarisation to defend against the 'archenemy' india, but I can't see them getting the idea that they can actually win. Of course, they might still try. No one ever said leaders were always entirely rational when making the decision to go to war...
THe Soviet 'two china policy' is actually funnier than the US one, because at least Taiwan was a 'country' with an economy, territory, a place the US could trade with, sell weapons to, defend, etc. Meanwhile, Mao is just some guy sitting in Vladivostok proclaiming all of China should be his, CHiang sitting in Nanking with all of china not under Japanese control under his command, and the Soviets are going "Mao's right, and Chiang is right too." I would expect real-politic will result soon enough in the Soviet Union recognising that there is in fact only one actual China (maybe after the death of Stalin), especially if Chiang gets back most or all of the Chinese territories Japan is still holding on to for now.
Fascinating what if's here. I'm curious to see where this all goes in our next semi-randomly generated world update.
Hi all, thanks for being patient. The big updates covering six months to a year that have to be researched and then morphed into many intertwined sub-narratives has become a bit daunting. Hence for that reason, plus RL things and wanting to get back into writing my other three 'live' game based AARs has slowed me down a bit here. Apologies for that, but I've had an idea to make it a little bit easier (and fun) for me and hopefully more digestible for my dear readAARs.
So, starting in 1950, I'm tweaking the format a bit to produce shorter, sharper episodes that will focus on just a month of key world events. I think I'll find it far easier (and less scary) to do these cut-down episodes. I've chosen a newspaper/monthly news magazine type premise for the presentation, with the return of a favourite old masthead First, I will do the feedback from the last round of comments, then on with the show.
It's a pretty balanced world. Shame about China but Japan is still looking by far the weakest of the 4 big powers and for some reason still committed to fighting for Mongolia.
Yes, things have balanced out a bit more than OTL, even if some fault lines remain, while new dynamics settle in around them in a more multi-polar strategic setting. Re Japan and Mongolia: I still maintain they're not really fighting for it at all. It just happens to be the front line, which prima facie the Soviets shouldn't care any more about for it's own sake than Japan. That's where the troops ended up and, were they ever to come to blows once more, why surrender a few more hundred kilometres of territory to the enemy at the start? Mongolia may well become part of a future war zone, but it is very unlikely to be its trigger. That will probably happen elsewhere - if it does.
Hmm, not sure they're that much more likely to do so than in OTL. And each side is thinking about how it can encroach upon the other's spheres, fighting for the attention of Turkey and new states like India, etc. Then there are the current and likely future post-colonial 'wars of liberation' in Africa and Asia, potential Caribbean and South American troubles, etc, in addition to the hotbed of strife that is Asia these days.
It hasn't quite done anything to directly aid them, though perhaps their failure to act and remain neutral, relying on their position in the LN P5 instead, could be seen as acquiescence. They are also concerned about the fragility of the UGNR and potential upheaval within it, Western and Communist infleunce on the Bucharest Pact satellites, unrest in Iran, Italy and Madagascar, etc. Plus developing their own still rather behind-the-times economy and military-industrial complex, and then, not least, the forthcoming elections. Maybe they were worried about biting off more than they could chew?
I suppose the question is whether Mao (with Soviet backing) succeeds in undermining Chiang's power over the longer term or not? For now, Chiang looks secure.
The Soviets no doubt harbour hopes about using him later, given how tensions with Japan keep simmering. He could be a useful tool down the track, so he'll be kept in the tool kit.
Japan seems to be the great power facing the most serious difficulties. It is hard to see a compromise being reached with China that would be acceptable to both parties, and it looks like we're heading for a hot war in Korea - which could leave Japan very exposed indeed.
Astute assessments. Neither of these things are certainties though (a failure to agree between China and Japan or a hot war in Korea). But the dynamics this time are quite different to OTL, where the DPRK lacks the direct support of China (rather, Japanese-occupied Manchuria on its northern border), but Japan is the South's main backer, rather than the US, which remains very ambivalent. The next chapter will focus quite heavily on the developing situation in Korea and how Japan tries to improve its isolated position.
This is a very pale shadow of the OTL NATO, but it's a good counter-balance to Soviet power in Europe and will probably help keep the peace. Hopefully this East-West divide will prove a little less dangerous in this multi-polar world - although the proliferation of nuclear powers by this early date is concerning.
It doesn't have the same hair-trigger, front-line feel as OTL, does it? The nuclear proliferation is roughly equivalent to what is was (in quantity, nature and timing) in OTL, though of course the Soviets got there first in TTL.
Interesting. Adenauer's situation has a lot in common with Mao's, although I don't see democrats in Germany managing to loosen Stalin's grip any time soon.
Very much so. The Soviet grip there still seems quite firm, despite the troubles with the general populace and fringe dwelling troublemakers like Skorzeny. But these things always seem certain up until the point they're not. Something dramatic could change things, or it might take decades, as in OTL.
China is now basically in an OTL India situation where they're connected to the world economy immedaitly and won't have any protection from it. So they'll become a big economic powerhous eventually but they'll have decades of being taken advantage of by the US and Europe to go through first.
Another fair assessment. Part of Chiang's driving objective will be industrial modernisation, as well as territorial reclamation. And there will be more than one world power with ideas about that, and how they might be able to take advantage of an opportunity for wooing and mutual advantage.
There's a lot more reason for mutual cooperation given how the treaty as written removed almost all border tensions outside Asia, and that's being kept alive pretty much entirely because of Japanese bullheadedness and will eventually fall to natural borders again (Mongolia with russiaan oversight/into the USSR, Korea either split or unified, Vietnam indepednant etc).
True enough outside Asia, but if anything Asia is more of a powderkeg even than in OTL by now. The situation in and around China is far less decisively settled than in OTL, I believe. Japan's situation is delicate and precarious, yes, but they are not without power and options and continue desperately to try to find a sustainable path to survival as a major player. With no Pearl Harbour and a pretty luke-warm war against the US in GW2, there is not the ingrained visceral hostility between them as applied in WW2. Making the possibility of some rapprochement between a slowly liberalising Japan and a restless US looking for ways to stop a strong Soviet Union, which also dominates Germany, more feasible.
The only last source of contention is where Russia and Turkey got their ambitious stretch goals: Germany and Italy. Can't see Italy staying stable and secure under the UGNR when they're pulling stuff like appointing a mafia state...and Stalin could have built a very loyal and stable puppet in Germany but...uh...didn't.
I agree re Italy: this will surely not be any bed of roses as time rolls on. And what will the Mafia get up to with a semi-autonmous UGNR state to feed off and exploit? The Soviet iron fist in Germany may beat them into submission - or goad them into a desperate reaction.
Seems so, for now at least. The Arab cause is weakened compared to OTL, especially if Turkey either stays neutral or starts to develop closer ties with Israel.
With no Communist Chinese state, Kim Il Sung's People's republic is a lot more isolated than it was historically. If there is to be a Korean war in TTL, I don't see the North Koreans hold on for as long as they did historically. They might even loose the war. Sure, the Soviets will support them, but most of their military is probably positioned to counter NATO and the Bucharest Pact in Europe. I definitely don't see them sending the same level of support the Chinese did OTL. On top of that, if Japan holds on to Manchukuo until then, and/or if it becomes a non-communist state (or part of Chiang's China) the US-Japan(-China) coalition + whomever wants to join in bashing the Communists, gets to attack from both the North and the South. Even without formal Nationalist Chinese involvement, I'd expect Chiang's regime to facilitate anti-communists volunteers aiding South Korea and doing it's best to round up those who might want to go help the Communists. This Korean War could even end in an all out victory for the South. Unless the North gets nukes, that is.
Yes, per above, this is a key point. The Soviets ended the war with most of their army deployed in the east and they have far less fear of their Western border than they did in OTL, I reckon. Other than keeping Germany and Denmark pacified and under the thumb, in TTL I'm thinking they have a far heavier Eastern presence, especially with Japan still arrayed along their border and the memory of them taking most of Far East before the Soviets could stabilise. But as above, South Korea doesn't have the same US backing (yet, anyway) as later in TTL and Japan is not yet a nuclear power, though they are a P5 LNSC member, which still counts for something. A touchy situation all round and anything could happen (or not happen) in Korea.
Of course, Japan-China negotiations can still break down, and if the Japanese hardliners get into power, I can even see another SIno-Japanese war happen. The hardliners would probably go for North Korea first though, and that could still turn into a fiasco that gets them voted out of power before tensions with China become so high they cannot be contained by their common hatred of communists anymore.
India is getting pretty strong, and Pakistan, still divided isn't going to be in a position to take Kashmir anytime soon. I see heavy Pakistani militarisation to defend against the 'archenemy' india, but I can't see them getting the idea that they can actually win. Of course, they might still try. No one ever said leaders were always entirely rational when making the decision to go to war...
THe Soviet 'two china policy' is actually funnier than the US one, because at least Taiwan was a 'country' with an economy, territory, a place the US could trade with, sell weapons to, defend, etc. Meanwhile, Mao is just some guy sitting in Vladivostok proclaiming all of China should be his, CHiang sitting in Nanking with all of china not under Japanese control under his command, and the Soviets are going "Mao's right, and Chiang is right too." I would expect real-politic will result soon enough in the Soviet Union recognising that there is in fact only one actual China (maybe after the death of Stalin), especially if Chiang gets back most or all of the Chinese territories Japan is still holding on to for now.
I think their two-China view is a more ideological one. The second China still exists in their view, even if it is not currently presenting as a formal nation-state. Quite a complex and interesting dynamic there with China, Japan and the USSR (not to mention US interests as well) that could end up going on a number of different tangents.
Chiang Consolidates, Talks with Tokyo; Moscow Unhappy
In October 1949 the Chinese Civil War had been effectively won by Chiang’s KMT-ruled Nationalist China, though the Communists had not formally conceded, with Mao going into exile in the USSR. Chiang has since moved to consolidate his new borders and China’s international position. His next diplomatic objective would be the resumption of the delicate and controversial negotiations with Japan over the future of Japanese-occupied China, in early 1950.
Chiang Kai-Shek addresses his victorious troops in Nanking, January 1950.
Unconfirmed reports from Tokyo indicate early talks commenced in mid-January. China of course seeks to regain the land lost in the last war between the two nations in 1937. The Japanese reportedly want formal recognition by China and security guarantees for the remaining land held by their puppet states in Mongolia and Manchuria. Their primary concern seems to be ensuring that flank in case of war in Korea or, even more worrying, a general conflict with the nuclear-armed USSR. Some sources report that the Japanese are also seeking commercial concessions, including access to vital raw materials, in return for Japanese technical expertise and investment to help develop the Chinese economy.
Parallels are being drawn by some commentators to the provisions of the infamous Nazi-Soviet Pact of 1939, though others argue the similarities are only superficial. In this case, Japan also wants to progress its rapprochement with the West, especially the US, through some successful completion of these difficult talks, which would go a long way to rehabilitating their international reputation in the West. This is tied into their fears of a war against Communism in Korea (especially, Vietnam less so) that might escalate if the Soviets choose to intervene indirectly or overtly in such a conflict. It is theorised that Japan hopes to move past recent animosities into a new “enemy of my enemy” understanding with China and the US.
In key events during the month, on 6 January the United Kingdom gave diplomatic recognition to the Nationalist China as the sole legitimate government of the nation. Norway, Denmark and Ceylon [not yet Sri Lanka]followed suit.[In OTL this was diplomatic recognition of the PRC]
Yakov Malik, the Soviet Ambassador to the LN, angrily walked out of a session of the League of Nations Security Council on 10 January, after the ten members voted 8–2 in favour of granting Nationalist China permanent (but non-veto) membership of the Security Council. Even though the Communist government was by then exiled in the USSR, the Soviets argued it should be granted equal status and that Nationalist China should not be admitted to the LNSC on any basis. They vetoed the proposal, thus stalling it. The rest of the LNSC permitted China to attend Council meetings as an observer.
The USSR vetoes the admission of Nationalist China as a permanent non-veto member of the LNSC, 10 January 1950.
Three days after the UN Security Council had refused to recognise the status of the Communist Chinese government, Ambassador Malik left indefinitely, saying that the USSR would not participate in the Security Council while Nationalist representative T. F. Tsiang remained at the table.
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Korea Heats Up
As we have seen above, Japan was becoming increasingly concerned over developments in Korea and the apparent high degree of readiness of the Soviet Far Eastern Army along their entire shared border in Mongolia and Manchuria.
On 5 January, US Army LTCOL Charles A. Willoughby, Chief of Intelligence for General Douglas MacArthur, provided the first reports to the White House that North Korea was planning an invasion of South Korea, possibly as early as March. This supported Japanese fears passed on confidentially to the US Administration in a series of briefings by the Japanese Ambassador in Washington to Secretary of State Dean Acheson.
But despite – or perhaps even because of – these concerns and continuing ambivalence over relations with Japan, when US Secretary of State Dean Acheson delivered his 'Perimeter Speech' on 12 January, outlining the boundary of US security guarantees, South Korea was not included within the area subject to American protection. Without saying it out loud, they were clearly leaving it as primarily a 'Japanese problem'.
US Secretary of State Dean Acheson delivers his ‘Perimeter Speech’ on 12 January 1950.
However, President Truman did wish to start providing economic support directly to South Korea. But on 19 January, a request by Truman to provide an additional $60 million in economic aid to South Korea failed to pass in the US House of Representatives, 191–193. This was seen as the "the first flat setback the President has encountered in his many requests for global recovery funds".
On 30 January, North Korea Chairman Kim Il Sung visited Moscow again.
Kim Il Sung visits Moscow again, 30 January 1950.
Behind the scenes, Joseph Stalin informed Kim that he had decided to support Kim's plan for an invasion of South Korea. Stalin provided the pledge of support after having earlier consulted with exiled Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong.
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Vietnam Simmers
The first diplomatic recognition of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, a nationalist movement led by Ho Chi Minh and controlling much of the northern areas of Vietnam, was given by the Communist government of the People's Republic of China on 18 January, which then began military aid to Ho. In the ATL, Mao might offer moral support but could do little else to aid Ho. This not happening in TTL meant the Viet Minh would be in a significantly weaker and more isolated position than in OTL.
On 29 January the Japanese Diet [the French National Assembly in OTL]voted to approve a government proposal for limited self-government for the State of Vietnam, with the former Emperor Bao Dai designated as "head of state" rather than as a monarch. Japan still largely controlled the South but exerted more limited authority in the North, where the Soviet-supported Democratic Republic of Vietnam still controlled much of the countryside and conducted a simmering insurgency after having been ousted from Hanoi in 1949.
Emperor (now ‘Head of State’) Bao Dai, the local leader Japan supports in Vietnam, hoping to block a Communist takeover.
On 31 January the Soviet Union countered this move by announcing recognition of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, led by North Vietnamese Communist Ho Chi Minh. Soviet-Japanese relations sunk to an even lower level as tensions rose commensurately.
Ho Chi Minh leads the insurgency in North Vietnam, January 1950. He may not be receiving direct aid via China, but the Soviets were providing diplomatic and (as alleged by Japan) clandestine military aid.
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A Coup Attempt in Indonesia
Sukarno had been elected as the first president of the United States of Indonesia on 16 December 1949, with the Netherlands officially transferring sovereignty over Indonesia on the 27th.
But on 23 January 1950, former Netherlands Army Captain Raymond Westerling led a force of 500 soldiers in an attack on the city of Bandung, seeking to lead a revolution to overthrow the government of President Sukarno, and to bring the former Dutch East Indies under the control of the Dutch-sponsored Republic of the United States of Indonesia.
Coup leader and former Dutch Captain Raymond Westerling.
His supporters were recruited from several social, cultural, and political groups. Even with the name, most were Sundanese who wanted an independent Pasundan not ruled by Javanese, defectors from the Indonesian Republican Army, soldiers of the DST and other KNIL units, who opposed the creation of the Indonesian republic.
Westerling’s plan was to attack Bandung and Jakarta at the same time, concentrating on garrisons, police stations, media centres and other key positions. The APRA would raid and eliminate the Hatta cabinet during one of its government meetings. An interim-federal government, presided over by Sultan Hamid II of Pontianak, would take control. Despite their numerical inferiority to the Siliwangi Division, Westerling's men captured Bandung.
However, they failed to take over Jakarta. Law and order were quickly restored by the Republican army and the Indonesian police force. In spite of the coup's relative brevity, it claimed dozens of lives on both sides. Most of the coup’s soldiers were captured and returned to the Dutch to undergo prison sentences. But while the Dutch government officially condemned the coup, the later helped to smuggle Westerling out of Indonesia to Singapore.
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Other World News
US President Harry S. Truman delivered his State of the Union address to Congress on 4 January, asking for a tax increase, with "changes in our tax system which will reduce present inequities, stimulate business activity, and yield a moderate amount of additional revenue".
The 1950 US State of the Nation Address is delivered by President Truman.
On 11 January, campaigning began as British Prime Minister Clement Attlee set new parliamentary elections to take place nationwide on 23 February.
British Prime Minister Clement Attlee. He commands a large majority in the House of Commons from the 1945 election, but can he see Labour to a second term?
The new Constitution of India was ratified on 24 January, declaring the Dominion of India a Republic, approved and signed by the 284 members of India's Constituent Assembly. On the same day, the assembly elected Rajendra Prasad as the nation's first President.
Indian Prime Minister Nehru sign the new Constitution at the Constituent Assembly on 24 January 1950.
The standoff between the Princely State of Kalat and the new Government of Pakistan continued unresolved throughout January.
And in local Turkish news, early manoeuvring had begun ahead of the legislative elections due in May, where the President would be chosen indirectly, via the legislature.
Hmm. He actually does look like Patrick Stuart here.
Good update. Russia may well regret leaving the SC unopposed for a while. They did OTL when they let the Korean War be a UN mission without their veto...
