Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[Bullfilter]

That's why I made my recommendation Plan Green: hold for a bit, scoot back to the main line of resistance and then ascertain what sort of forces we will have available to take the fight to the enemy...

Indeed . I’m really trying to elicit some views from a few of the other readers ... hint hint.

All: Plenty of time to come up with them. Happy to take as ordinary comments or in-character presentations (briefing papers, etc) to the Cabinet. Will give notice for any final ‘coordinating comments’ in the War Cabinet process when I’m back from my travels and looking to fire the game up again.

 

[Arnulf Floyd]

Turks not must lost Balkans and they must act steadfast against evil Axis if they want to keep Balkans safe and free

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Turks not must lost Balkans and they must act steadfast against evil Axis if they want to keep Balkans safe and free

What, are we the good guys now?

Good for propoganda and what industry we have but potentially a huge waste of resources and manpower. Saying that, I think what we're all agreed on thus far is thst we can't just drop the yuguslavian front and run back to greece. That's too extreme. A (potentially) good military decision but a dreadful real poltik and general decision because it makes us look weak and heartless, as we abandon half our population and both our allies to run safe behind our mighty walls.

Remeber thst we are going to live and die in this timeline based on how close and respected we are to our communist brethern, and how much the West respects and fears us. We have to hold well and retreat intelligently to do both here. And then launching suprise attacks elsewhere to help the britsh or french would really cement the respect angle, if begrudgingly from the allied governments.

 

[smatsik]

New Responder here. I just got caught up so I can comment on current event.
One thing to consider about the blue line is that it is ~30-40% longer than the current line. If you can't hold the present line I do not see you holding the blue line for any extended period of time. On the other hand I feel it would be useful to hold there for at least a short time to give any slower units plenty of time to make the retreat to the final defensive positions. My plan would be send about 1/3 of your army (choosing units with low organisation) back to the Calistar-Iskander lines to reorganize and dig in. With the rest conduct a slow staged withdrawal back to the blue line and observe what the axis forces are doing. They may decide that pushing down the Danube and into the southern Ukraine may be more profitable. If they do you can stay on the blue line for some time until they start developing pressure on you. If not then plan on continuing the staged withdrawal all the way back to the final defensive line.
I don't like the idea of an immediate withdrawal all the way back, but if you don't start back soon, that may become the only option.

 

[Bullfilter]

New Responder here. I just got caught up so I can comment on current event.
One thing to consider about the blue line is that it is ~30-40% longer than the current line. If you can't hold the present line I do not see you holding the blue line for any extended period of time. On the other hand I feel it would be useful to hold there for at least a short time to give any slower units plenty of time to make the retreat to the final defensive positions. My plan would be send about 1/3 of your army (choosing units with low organisation) back to the Calistar-Iskander lines to reorganize and dig in. With the rest conduct a slow staged withdrawal back to the blue line and observe what the axis forces are doing. They may decide that pushing down the Danube and into the southern Ukraine may be more profitable. If they do you can stay on the blue line for some time until they start developing pressure on you. If not then plan on continuing the staged withdrawal all the way back to the final defensive line.
I don't like the idea of an immediate withdrawal all the way back, but if you don't start back soon, that may become the only option.

Welcome @smatsik and thanks for both the commitment of getting up to date and taking the time to comment. It really is very much appreciated. These are wise comments, especially about the length of the line and our ability to hold it (and the relative cost in casualties) for any length of time.

Without Soviet help or surviving exiled Romanian units to bolster it, it would be a tough ask, and therefore only likely as a delay line (with terrain less favourable than the current river-based line and certainly the superior Iskandar-Calistar Lines. The main benefit to balance that would be forcing the enemy to stop and prepare attacks to breach it (or any other opportunistic defence points) and the hope of dragging the whole thing closer to the start of the Russian winter, in the hope the Soviets can cause some real damage.

Then there is the nature and timing of withdrawals. The problem with a slow fighting withdrawal (as we have been doing on the Yeniceri Line of late) is that you eventually run out of good terrain to do it in and fresh troops to stage the defence. They get you on a roll and then you have nothing left when you want to hold seriously, and also you take higher casualties- which the Soviets can afford but I can’t so much.

This will be interesting and your advice will definitely feed into Cabinet considerations.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

New Responder here. I just got caught up so I can comment on current event.
One thing to consider about the blue line is that it is ~30-40% longer than the current line. If you can't hold the present line I do not see you holding the blue line for any extended period of time. On the other hand I feel it would be useful to hold there for at least a short time to give any slower units plenty of time to make the retreat to the final defensive positions. My plan would be send about 1/3 of your army (choosing units with low organisation) back to the Calistar-Iskander lines to reorganize and dig in. With the rest conduct a slow staged withdrawal back to the blue line and observe what the axis forces are doing. They may decide that pushing down the Danube and into the southern Ukraine may be more profitable. If they do you can stay on the blue line for some time until they start developing pressure on you. If not then plan on continuing the staged withdrawal all the way back to the final defensive line.
I don't like the idea of an immediate withdrawal all the way back, but if you don't start back soon, that may become the only option.

Ok, firsst welcome to the chat side of the AAR. This is where things get real interesting

Second, the generally idea of a fallback is to get the ai to back off and go somewhere else whilst also keeping romania in the fight as long as possible and giving us time to really prepare a defence for the homeland.
Saying that, you are right in that if the axis follows us and pressed the attack (basically, if they act like competent military campaigners) then we really do need to abandon the line within a few days or weeks and get back to the last ditch lines.

So...we either cross our fingers and hope for the best with the axis or we have to mount a running or fighting retreat depending on hpw much they send our way.

Basically option b needs to be split into plan 1, 2 and 3 outlining these scenarios so we have at least a general plan for each of them both for consideration with the other major plans for defence and then, if chosen, for operational usage as they are put into place.

 

[Bullfilter]

Ok, firsst welcome to the chat side of the AAR. This is where things get real interesting

Second, the generally idea of a fallback is to get the ai to back off and go somewhere else whilst also keeping romania in the fight as long as possible and giving us time to really prepare a defence for the homeland.
Saying that, you are right in that if the axis follows us and pressed the attack (basically, if they act like competent military campaigners) then we really do need to abandon the line within a few days or weeks and get back to the last ditch lines.

So...we either cross our fingers and hope for the best with the axis or we have to mount a running or fighting retreat depending on hpw much they send our way.

Basically option b needs to be split into plan 1, 2 and 3 outlining these scenarios so we have at least a general plan for each of them both for consideration with the other major plans for defence and then, if chosen, for operational usage as they are put into place.

Although I will default back to original Cabinet guidance: I’m interested in strategic level guidance and broad scheme of manoeuvre/commander’s intent. I’ll do the more detailed planning and play from there, taking guidance into account. So,it could be “most of us recommend option z, being prepared for the following contingencies or broadly likely enemy actions”. The staff will take it from there. Keeps it simple but allows contributors to outline the kind of things they think we should cater for to whatever detail they wish.

Also bearing in mind when planning a defence such as this, the only firm element is the need to be able to defend the line of last resort. Everything before that is so dependent on enemy actions and in this case the uncontrollable idiosyncrasies of the Soviet and Romanian AIs that no ‘plan’ will last more than a day or two.

To recap: big questions are A) bug out now or not, and B) when bugging out, to where first - delaying defence or back to the original Plan A of the Cabinet on the fortified lines. When people nominate a preferred approach, any “I think you should do these kind of things and avoid those” more than welcome. I have a few in mind, but don’t want to preempt debate, because it may either confirm or change my mind.

 

[El Pip]

A little like Darth Vader: he might have be supreme commander and head tons of operations and assaults but he also has to hang around a bunch of idiots distressingly often and got stuck on a ship too much.

This chimes with me, but probably not in the way intended;
*Deep in the Heart of SITH after yet another cockup*

Colonel Mottiyan - "Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways, Lord Kelebek. Your sad devotion to your dark ways has not helped you conjure up a way to beat the Mafia, or given you clairvoyance enough to find The Thorn."

Kelebek chokes Mottiyan

Intelligence Minister - "Leave him Kelebek, he has got a point."

Kelebk flounces out in a huff.

 

[Arnulf Floyd]

I hope as world situation drives Turkey to be neither good nor bad in their ways, but sandwiched between two „bad” regimes - Fascism and Communism, is even a challenge for tnis ATL Turkey

 

[Bullfilter]

This chimes with me, but probably not in the way intended;
*Deep in the Heart of SITH after yet another cockup*

Colonel Mottiyan - "Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways, Lord Kelebek. Your sad devotion to your dark ways has not helped you conjure up a way to beat the Mafia, or given you clairvoyance enough to find The Thorn."

Kelebek chokes Mottiyan

Intelligence Minister - "Leave him Kelebek, he has got a point."

Kelebk flounces out in a huff.

Haha made me smile indeed

Even if I find your lack of faith ... disturbing!

 

[Bullfilter]

I hope as world situation drives Turkey to be neither good nor bad in their ways, but sandwiched between two „bad” regimes - Fascism and Communism, is even a challenge for tnis ATL Turkey

Yes, all this ATL Turkish leadership can do now is hope not to get crushed between the two behemoths and then to be in a position to shape the aftermath. This path may not please all ... but it’s the only way I can think of to win the game as a minor!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

This chimes with me, but probably not in the way intended;
*Deep in the Heart of SITH after yet another cockup*

Colonel Mottiyan - "Don't try to frighten us with your sorcerer's ways, Lord Kelebek. Your sad devotion to your dark ways has not helped you conjure up a way to beat the Mafia, or given you clairvoyance enough to find The Thorn."

Kelebek chokes Mottiyan

Intelligence Minister - "Leave him Kelebek, he has got a point."

Kelebk flounces out in a huff.

Haha made me smile indeed

Even if I find your lack of faith ... disturbing!

See no one gave Vader this shit.

Anyway propganda covered this already. Any failures are a result of turkish intelligence screwing up and western trickery. Any sucess is because of brave and excellent SITH agents. Plus this Kelebek seems to be afk-ing his time in this campaign for the most part. Unless someone really tempts fate or needs a-killing.

 

[El Pip]

But in this ATL, Hess (for now, anyway) remains the much-derided (in Turkey) Deputy Fuhrer of Germany and supposed Head of Government. And von Neurath persists as Foreign Minister – that even worse toady and buffoon, Ribbentrop, has not (yet) risen to the top. Perhaps he will, as scum rises to the top of the sewage pit.

Theses things are, as you no doubt know by now, like a flame for a moth to me. Highlights;
Seldte - Was an incompetent and nondescript Minister for Labour, who got the job due to being on the far right pre-Hitler and only survived in the job because it was pointless and had no power. Not an entrepreneur by any definition of the word.
von Blomberg - was sacked in 1938 due to that whole "Marrying a pornstar" issue.
von Siemens - was never in the Nai government in any role due to not being a Nazi, pre-Hitler he was elected to the Reichstag as a DDP candidate, aside from being a centre/librel party the DDP where derided as 'The Jewish party'. Had he not been part of the Siemens family that would not have gone well for him. Plus of course he was an industrial chemist who knew sod all about aircraft.

Up to Chapter 129 so I've just seen the heroic defence then crushing defeat at Timisoara. Truly Turks will say Remember Tirimasu! (because thinking about a chocolate desert is more pleasant than remembering that bloodbath).

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

von Blomberg - was sacked in 1938 due to that whole "Marrying a pornstar" issue.

!?

 

[El Pip]

!?

The Von Blomberg scandal is one of my favourite Nazi Germany sex-scandals, mainly because of the little quirky details.

In 1938 the 59 year old Field Marshall von Blomberg married his second wife Erna/Eva Gruhn, a 25 year old typist who worked at the Reich Egg Marketing Board, his best man at the wedding was Goring and Hitler was one of the witnesses. Unfortunately before helping to promote superior Aryan eggs Eva had been in a different line of employment; working as a prostitute at her mother's brothel (Mum having made the move from prostitute to madam as she aged, encouraging her daughter to take up the 'family business'). To make it worse she had posed for a series of 'indecent' photos which were sold all over Berlin, the pornographer/photographer being a Czech Jew, because it is that sort of story.

Blomberg's rivals found out about this, the head of the Berlin Police Morality Squad had a very large file on Eva as you would expect, and sold him out to Goring who (a) felt betrayed that Blomberg hadn't mentioned this and/or (b) saw an opportunity to get rid of a rival and weaken the army. Probably quite a lot of (b) but I wouldn't rule out (a) entirely. Either way Hitler also got quite annoyed at this possible scandal, so after Blomberg refused to annual the marriage the Field Marshall was sacked/resigned.

Because this was Nazi Germany things didn't end there. Admiral Raeder decided that Blomberg should commit suicide to 'atone' for his marriage, possibly because Raeder was a nutter (I've seen Plan Z, no-one sane was responsible for that). So he sent a junior Kriegsmarine officer to chase around after the Blombergs while they were on their honeymoon to encourage Blomberg to commit suicide, he even 'kindly' provided a loaded gun. Unsurprisingly this offer was declined and von Blomberg spent the war in obscurity, eventuallyl being dragged back for the Nuremberg Trials. At the trials he gave evidence but escaped a sentence himself by dying of cancer, though refusing to eat any food after Eva abandoned him probably sped things up.

 

[Bullfilter]

The Von Blomberg scandal is one of my favourite Nazi Germany sex-scandals, mainly because of the little quirky details.

In 1938 the 59 year old Field Marshall von Blomberg married his second wife Erna/Eva Gruhn, a 25 year old typist who worked at the Reich Egg Marketing Board, his best man at the wedding was Goring and Hitler was one of the witnesses. Unfortunately before helping to promote superior Aryan eggs Eva had been in a different line of employment; working as a prostitute at her mother's brothel (Mum having made the move from prostitute to madam as she aged, encouraging her daughter to take up the 'family business'). To make it worse she had posed for a series of 'indecent' photos which were sold all over Berlin, the pornographer/photographer being a Czech Jew, because it is that sort of story.

Blomberg's rivals found out about this, the head of the Berlin Police Morality Squad had a very large file on Eva as you would expect, and sold him out to Goring who (a) felt betrayed that Blomberg hadn't mentioned this and/or (b) saw an opportunity to get rid of a rival and weaken the army. Probably quite a lot of (b) but I wouldn't rule out (a) entirely. Either way Hitler also got quite annoyed at this possible scandal, so after Blomberg refused to annual the marriage the Field Marshall was sacked/resigned.

Because this was Nazi Germany things didn't end there. Admiral Raeder decided that Blomberg should commit suicide to 'atone' for his marriage, possibly because Raeder was a nutter (I've seen Plan Z, no-one sane was responsible for that). So he sent a junior Kriegsmarine officer to chase around after the Blombergs while they were on their honeymoon to encourage Blomberg to commit suicide, he even 'kindly' provided a loaded gun. Unsurprisingly this offer was declined and von Blomberg spent the war in obscurity, eventuallyl being dragged back for the Nuremberg Trials. At the trials he gave evidence but escaped a sentence himself by dying of cancer, though refusing to eat any food after Eva abandoned him probably sped things up.

Amazing! Some aspects of political life change remarkably little, although the Nazis has a way of magnifying such things through their strange brand of insane, tawdry, impulsive amorality and promotion of venal nut jobs into positions of power.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Christ...

Those guys were effed up.

 

[El Pip]

Only a number of HQs and a weak Iraqi division remained in the vicinity. Surely Churchill would sack the commander responsible for this fiasco?

I do hope Churchill doesn't sack the responsible person, as I have suspicion it might be... *dun,dun,duhhhhh* - You! Partially at least.

I gather you are playing as you go in short-ish bursts, there are references to attacks stoppping after reloading, etc. Now as I understand it the HOI3 AI, particularly the Theatre assignment part, doesn't do well under those circumstances. Everytime you load up a game (or TAG across without pausing) it re-runs the 'What forces does that theatre need' routine and tries to ship forces out, subject to various priorities like protecting the capital, etc. If you are always re-starting, this is always getting re-run and the process reset, this is particularly bad if the force moves are by sea as naval forces are more prone to getting re-routed by the AI and/or just sent home instead of continuing their journey.

Of course this being Paradox you must be careful not to play for too long, or the Theatre AI can get stuck in a different bug and not reinforce anything, you can see this if after a restart it suddenly surges forces to an empty front. A quit and re-load every 6 months of game time was reportedly the 'best' balance, but it depends on what sort of AI you want to face.

Finally it is also possible that none of the above matters in this case. It is alleged (but impossible to prove) that the Theatre routine is incapable of differentiating between HQs and proper units, so the British AI may see those many HQs as effective combat units and not be trying to reinforce. This is plausible as people are fairly sure the HOI3 AI cannot tell the difference between other unit types, hence why you see Armoured divisions attacking mountains, mountain divisions dumped on tropical islands, Marines not leading amphibious assaults but being in the 2nd wave, etc. But surely Paradox couldn't be that inept... Surely?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I do hope Churchill doesn't sack the responsible person, as I have suspicion it might be... *dun,dun,duhhhhh* - You! Partially at least.

I gather you are playing as you go in short-ish bursts, there are references to attacks stoppping after reloading, etc. Now as I understand it the HOI3 AI, particularly the Theatre assignment part, doesn't do well under those circumstances. Everytime you load up a game (or TAG across without pausing) it re-runs the 'What forces does that theatre need' routine and tries to ship forces out, subject to various priorities like protecting the capital, etc. If you are always re-starting, this is always getting re-run and the process reset, this is particularly bad if the force moves are by sea as naval forces are more prone to getting re-routed by the AI and/or just sent home instead of continuing their journey.

Of course this being Paradox you must be careful not to play for too long, or the Theatre AI can get stuck in a different bug and not reinforce anything, you can see this if after a restart it suddenly surges forces to an empty front. A quit and re-load every 6 months of game time was reportedly the 'best' balance, but it depends on what sort of AI you want to face.

Finally it is also possible that none of the above matters in this case. It is alleged (but impossible to prove) that the Theatre routine is incapable of differentiating between HQs and proper units, so the British AI may see those many HQs as effective combat units and not be trying to reinforce. This is plausible as people are fairly sure the HOI3 AI cannot tell the difference between other unit types, hence why you see Armoured divisions attacking mountains, mountain divisions dumped on tropical islands, Marines not leading amphibious assaults but being in the 2nd wave, etc. But surely Paradox couldn't be that inept... Surely?

So...what you are saying is, if it is his fault, it's irrelevant because the game would break anyway?

It's amazing paradox survives and thrives sometimes isnt it?

 

[Bullfilter]

I do hope Churchill doesn't sack the responsible person, as I have suspicion it might be... *dun,dun,duhhhhh* - You! Partially at least.

I gather you are playing as you go in short-ish bursts, there are references to attacks stoppping after reloading, etc. Now as I understand it the HOI3 AI, particularly the Theatre assignment part, doesn't do well under those circumstances. Everytime you load up a game (or TAG across without pausing) it re-runs the 'What forces does that theatre need' routine and tries to ship forces out, subject to various priorities like protecting the capital, etc. If you are always re-starting, this is always getting re-run and the process reset, this is particularly bad if the force moves are by sea as naval forces are more prone to getting re-routed by the AI and/or just sent home instead of continuing their journey.

Of course this being Paradox you must be careful not to play for too long, or the Theatre AI can get stuck in a different bug and not reinforce anything, you can see this if after a restart it suddenly surges forces to an empty front. A quit and re-load every 6 months of game time was reportedly the 'best' balance, but it depends on what sort of AI you want to face.

Finally it is also possible that none of the above matters in this case. It is alleged (but impossible to prove) that the Theatre routine is incapable of differentiating between HQs and proper units, so the British AI may see those many HQs as effective combat units and not be trying to reinforce. This is plausible as people are fairly sure the HOI3 AI cannot tell the difference between other unit types, hence why you see Armoured divisions attacking mountains, mountain divisions dumped on tropical islands, Marines not leading amphibious assaults but being in the 2nd wave, etc. But surely Paradox couldn't be that inept... Surely?

So...what you are saying is, if it is his fault, it's irrelevant because the game would break anyway?

It's amazing paradox survives and thrives sometimes isnt it?

All very interesting: at the moment, as you say it’s play-and-write, so it is bursts of between four to ten game days. For North Africa, given it is AI vs AI, all I can hope is that any strange effects even out over time. Same with Germany vs SU. The Axis has done a little of that misallocation of forces in the Balkans, but has generally been quite effective so far from what I’ve seen, which has made for a balanced and (for me as the player) entertaining game.

I could try to make the play sessions a minimum of ten days but then just use a chapter’s worth at a time, which wouldn’t compromise the feel, but don’t want to go for too much longer than that, so will just have to put up with the effects and hope they even out for both sides.

I do try to finish battles off before saving and writing, but sometimes they have been quite long: most saves where they are still going have been fine. Other times, it seems the reassessment @El Pip mentions has caused them to stop suddenly. Overall though I’ve been pretty pleased by the AI performance.

@Eurasia, I wonder if some of the effects described are affecting your AIs in your American AAR? It is very naval-heavy. I know your chapters describe quite short periods but am not sure if your play sessions are any longer.