The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[TheButterflyComposer]

AI is quite happy not to do just prior to being invaded by Ireland

Yay!

or whatever.

Boo!

 

[J66185]

Then, in the vein of mocking French essence, what would be the characteristic of Japanese light novels when they give completely convoluted and dry expositions? A.k.a A Certain Magical Index and the nihilistic work of Arifureta.

 

[Cromwell]

Remember the top of the page people, you are playing right into his hands!

 

[Wraith11B]

Once again, Butterfly Composer steals it...

New conspiracy theory: Much like Fight Club, Pip and Butterfly Composer are the same person, just with that really over the top split personality.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Once again, Butterfly Composer steals it...

New conspiracy theory: Much like Fight Club, Pip and Butterfly Composer are the same person, just with that really over the top split personality.

I was quite literally thinking exactly the same thing yesterday when the top of page was pointed out.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Once again, Butterfly Composer steals it...

New conspiracy theory: Much like Fight Club, Pip and Butterfly Composer are the same person, just with that really over the top split personality.

Now I'm scared of how the so-called Pipettes will turn out...

 

[Wraith11B]

Now I'm scared of how the so-called Pipettes will turn out...

That just becomes the underlying lore from the Underworld series: one bitten by bat, one by wolf... Etc.

 

[El Pip]

I have been fooling myself that I'm very close to being ready and I think I sort of am, but I am overdue responding here. As a small reward for the delay here is an unrelated fact that will not feature in Butterfly but forms part of the background - early 1930s British Malaya was surprisingly intense. As in 'Japanese mining agents swallowing strychnine capsules to avoid being interrogated' intense. Please feel free to discuss this as it's fascinating.

We shall have this update then in the post after the next person, then, eh, @El Pip?

Fortunately TBC saved me from having to update at an unseemly pace.

As is, or failing that should be, tradition, I return with only the finest in slower-than-real-time commentary. Which is not to make any statement about the quality of said commentary, rather on the lack of competitors in the category.

This is the one true way to be outstanding in your field, make sure said field contains no real competitors. It has certainly served me well.

The operative word in that last phrase being "small", a qualifier largely forgotten by the bloated administrative machines of modern-day corporations, dragged down at the waist by legions of useless middle-managers who contribute nothing save to seriously call into question the definition of the word "elite".

One counter-argument could be that said middle-managers are in fact part of the "unskilled masses" and are deployed as human shields to distract blame from those higher up. Certainly it's never been clear to me what skills exactly said middle-managers have that usefully contribute so I have sympathy with this view.

Heresy!

Sacrifices must be made if people continue to demand such luxuries as "plot", "progress" and "finishing this AAR before the heat death of the universe"

And again with the rare moment of clarity and insight. Has El Pip come down with a case of protagonist syndrome?

I feel that as long as they continue to fumble the execution and make egregious cock-ups I am steering clear of that particular syndrome.

Most of all Ford, who if he had realized his mistake could have averted his course before giving us the unmitigated disaster that was Robert McNamara.

I was under the impression that McNamara had got a few things right, even if the bad very much outweighed the good. A very slightly mitigated disaster?

So they will win a war in France, is what you're saying?

It is a very low bar to clear.

Which is hardly fair, as most of the problems with tanks had more to do with the Army's silly and antiquated ideas about what tanks should be. The industry was hardly at fault, any more so than the national industry of any other tank-using nation.

Why on earth were you expecting fairness, let alone logic, from a political decision?

I dunno, I think this work is plenty recognizable as it is. Certainly I would never mistake it for, say, a Turkish Misery Work of some form.

I would be concerned if things ever did stray down that dark path.

It would be an interesting change of pa

Ba-dum ti

My money, erm gold, is on the psychology angle.

I would go with that as well. It remains a strange obsession though, they so want Paris to be a financial capital but refuse to do anything that would that more likely.

As one would expect from the country which practically has P.T. Barnum as its patron saint.

I have on occasion being accused of kicking the US when it is down, so felt it only right they were in no-way fooled by this and exploited it for their own ends.

Cute. Very cute. I look forward to seeing how badly it backfires in 7 1/2 years.

I am surprised you think it will last that long.

Truly a shining example of Soviet industrial efficiency and modernity.

Alarmingly this is true.

Hell, I feel confident that you could be fully correct and someone would still spark some lively debate. Possibly even on a related topic.

At this point I will take lively debate on any semi-plausibly related topic.

angrily mutters in "Holiday"

You must admit that given the majestic progress of this work it is unusual for the writer to be in any way ahead of the reader.

What about questions regarding the correct Greek translation for Dora the Explorer?

What did the Greeks ever do to deserve that?

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that the world would be generally more exciting were it not for the British policing things which are frankly none of their business.

More exciting in the way a fire at the sewage works is exciting. A cavalcade of lights, smells and methane explosions but at the end everyone is worse off and the world is left a sadder and more dangerous place and you wish the police had been around to stop it happening.

You could always make use of the mystical art of "buffer", which I am lead to understand means writing extra updates so that one can maintain a consistent posting schedule over irregularities in writing schedule, however it should work equally well to produce convenient irregularities in the update schedule if that is preferred.

That's just crazy talk.

I once again remind you never to make such reckless assumptions.

When people ask what the delay is I shall blame the need to add it in extra technical detail due to your return. It won't be true but it will distract the mob and that is the main thing.

Remember the top of the page people, you are playing right into his hands!

TBC is a reliable bull in a china shop in this context.

New conspiracy theory: Much like Fight Club, Pip and Butterfly Composer are the same person, just with that really over the top split personality.

I was quite literally thinking exactly the same thing yesterday when the top of page was pointed out.

It is an alarming possibility.

Now I'm scared of how the so-called Pipettes will turn out...

That just becomes the underlying lore from the Underworld series: one bitten by bat, one by wolf... Etc.

That is probably at the acceptable end of the range of possibilities. The other is that like the Roman Empire at times AARland is divided between them, before a series of bloody civil wars to re-unify the Empire as there can only be one.

 

[Midnite Duke]

Can you point the rabbit hole for someone to poke for more information on the Japanese mining engineers? Was this British, Japanese or worker interrogation?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

early 1930s British Malaya was surprisingly intense. As in 'Japanese mining agents swallowing strychnine capsules to avoid being interrogated' intense. Please feel free to discuss this as it's fascinating.

Mmm. Lots of money involved, or was this another attempt at nationalist revolt?

Fortunately TBC saved me

As I am wont to do.

I would be concerned if things ever did stray down that dark path.

Again, I see nothing wrong with half of Europe being ruled by Communist TBC and the other half ran by Demon TBC. Except perhaps that France still exists freely in between them.

TBC is a reliable bull in a china shop in this context.

In this scenario, its really incumbent upon the China shop owner at this point. Imagine letting things get to a state where there is not only a bull in your China shop but it's been left there because its 'reliable'.

 

[El Pip]

Can you point the rabbit hole for someone to poke for more information on the Japanese mining engineers? Was this British, Japanese or worker interrogation?

It's a tantalisingly brief mention in a National Archives summary - https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11602763 - no doubt there are books on this subject but I only discovered it for myself in the last few days while searching for something entirely unrelated.

In essence there was a Japanese espionage mission using a mining company as cover, the actual IJN agent was caught and confessed. The local boss of the Japanese mining company was brought in for questioning but swallowed his suicide pill before the local Special Branch could ask anything.

Mmm. Lots of money involved, or was this another attempt at nationalist revolt?

Merely IJN espionage this time.

Again, I see nothing wrong with half of Europe being ruled by Communist TBC and the other half ran by Demon TBC. Except perhaps that France still exists freely in between them.

That is one of your largest blindspots, though there are others.

In this scenario, its really incumbent upon the China shop owner at this point. Imagine letting things get to a state where there is not only a bull in your China shop but it's been left there because its 'reliable'.

You are assuming the china shop owner is unhappy with this situation. Far better to blame the bull for smashing up the pottery and then claim on the insurance than be forced to do something as demeaning as actually selling any china. It is only the customers who lose out in this scenario and they should really be blaming the bull for his smashing.

The metaphor is quite tortured at this point, but I am confident it still works.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

though there are others

List them dear fellow! We can absolutely have a discussion about those.

You are assuming the china shop owner is unhappy with this situation. Far better to blame the bull for smashing up the pottery and then claim on the insurance than be forced to do something as demeaning as actually selling any china. It is only the customers who lose out in this scenario and they should really be blaming the bull for his smashing.

The metaphor is quite tortured at this point, but I am confident it still works.

It still works but it's still an indictment on the shop owner who is now engaging in fraud.

 

[El Pip]

List them dear fellow! We can absolutely have a discussion about those.

Your seeming instinctive historical determinism springs to mind. Certainly you have often made comments with an underlying assumption that events will veer back onto essentially the same historical path.

It still works but it's still an indictment on the shop owner who is now engaging in fraud.

Only if he owns the bull, has control of it or is somehow inducing it to act, none of which is the case here as the bull just goes off smashing pottery all of its own accord. At a stretch it could be negligence in failing to put in place adequate measures to stop the bull, but to yet further torture the metaphor if the china shop building was owned by an incompetent Swedish landlord who did not allow the shop owner to put any controls in place, as they had reserved for themselves and their agents that right, then it would be their fault for continuing to for allow the bull into the building.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Your seeming instinctive historical determinism springs to mind. Certainly you have often made comments with an underlying assumption that events will veer back onto essentially the same historical path.

If the reasons for that event or events still make sense or are still bascially the same, then yes, they could still happen OTL. Few things are entirely random.
You have to work quite hard to not have an eventual collapse of the british empire if you're starting changing things from 1918 onwards.
Likewise, the German Reich collapsing is going to happen here, whether or not they start the war before they do. And since the Nazis are in charge, they are going to attack Eastern Europe, which 'might' not trigger a war with the allies but given Hitler was then going to attack France anyway, that's a little inconsequential.
And there was always going to be a war between nazi Germany and society Russia sometime in the 40s. If it was left up to the nazis, it'll be sometimes earlier in the decade, and later if up to Stalin.

Once the nazis actually do take power, it's a question of when and not if they do these things, and whether they survive long enough to do them all.

 

[Midnite Duke]

Thank you for the rabbit hole. If the Brits did not want the Japanese spying in Malaya, they should not have allowed the Japanese to purchase mines and plantations in Malaya. Five more enlightened (or generic spam) posts until the next installment of the wisdom of @El Pip.

 

[El Pip]

If the reasons for that event or events still make sense or are still bascially the same, then yes, they could still happen OTL. Few things are entirely random.
You have to work quite hard to not have an eventual collapse of the british empire if you're starting changing things from 1918 onwards.
Likewise, the German Reich collapsing is going to happen here, whether or not they start the war before they do. And since the Nazis are in charge, they are going to attack Eastern Europe, which 'might' not trigger a war with the allies but given Hitler was then going to attack France anyway, that's a little inconsequential.
And there was always going to be a war between nazi Germany and society Russia sometime in the 40s. If it was left up to the nazis, it'll be sometimes earlier in the decade, and later if up to Stalin.

Once the nazis actually do take power, it's a question of when and not if they do these things, and whether they survive long enough to do them all.

I fairly fundamentally disagree with most of that.

To take the classic example there were a good dozen assassination attempts on Hitler before the war, as early as 1932 if one believes the wiki, and had any one succeeded then it's a Goering led Reich and so on foreign policy everything changes. Germany is still careening towards an economic cliff due to rearmament spending, and Goering is hardly going to stop that, but he was never obsessed with a war with the Soviet Union and didn't even think invading Poland was a good idea. His obsession was the former German colonies, which probably also leads to war but a very different one.

There is also my Great Idiot of History theory that one badly placed idiot can do catastrophic damage and had they been replaced by anyone else things could change wildly. Or even very small changes, such as if Gamelin had picked a different prostitute in Brazil and not got syphilis then he would not have so badly cocked up the entire Battle of France.

I would not argue for HOI4 style randomness or that there aren't broad historic forces driving conflict or pushing for a certain range of outcomes. But I reject determinism, what people do does matter and very few things are inevitable.

Thank you for the rabbit hole. If the Brits did not want the Japanese spying in Malaya, they should not have allowed the Japanese to purchase mines and plantations in Malaya. Five more enlightened (or generic spam) posts until the next installment of the wisdom of @El Pip.

Japanese iron ore mines in Malaya date back to before WW1, well into the era of the Anglo-Japanese alliance when such investments were seen as building strong links between the allies. Once established the issue of being a global financial leader rears its head again, fundamentally people have to trust that a contract is a contract so cancelling it when the Japanese firm had committed no breach (as oppose to the Japanese government) would have caused problems and decline in trust.

You can see a modern parallel with the US use of dollar sanctions on Iran and similar, it makes the dollar seem somewhat less reliable. Hence the many stories about China trying to convince Saudi and others to accept payment in Yuan for oil and so on. I don't think they'll succeed because fundamentally no-one really wants any Yuan, but the more the US tries to use the dominant position of the dollar to support it's foreign policy, the more it undermines said dominance.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I fairly fundamentally disagree with most of that.

To take the classic example there were a good dozen assassination attempts on Hitler before the war, as early as 1932 if one believes the wiki, and had any one succeeded then it's a Goering led Reich and so on foreign policy everything changes. Germany is still careening towards an economic cliff due to rearmament spending, and Goering is hardly going to stop that, but he was never obsessed with a war with the Soviet Union and didn't even think invading Poland was a good idea. His obsession was the former German colonies, which probably also leads to war but a very different one.

There is also my Great Idiot of History theory that one badly placed idiot can do catastrophic damage and had they been replaced by anyone else things could change wildly. Or even very small changes, such as if Gamelin had picked a different prostitute in Brazil and not got syphilis then he would not have so badly cocked up the entire Battle of France.

I would not argue for HOI4 style randomness or that there aren't broad historic forces driving conflict or pushing for a certain range of outcomes. But I reject determinism, what people do does matter and very few things are inevitable.


Japanese iron ore mines in Malaya date back to before WW1, well into the era of the Anglo-Japanese alliance when such investments were seen as building strong links between the allies. Once established the issue of being a global financial leader rears its head again, fundamentally people have to trust that a contract is a contract so cancelling it when the Japanese firm had committed no breach (as oppose to the Japanese government) would have caused problems and decline in trust.

You can see a modern parallel with the US use of dollar sanctions on Iran and similar, it makes the dollar seem somewhat less reliable. Hence the many stories about China trying to convince Saudi and others to accept payment in Yuan for oil and so on. I don't think they'll succeed because fundamentally no-one really wants any Yuan, but the more the US tries to use the dominant position of the dollar to support it's foreign policy, the more it undermines said dominance.

Ah yes....put that way, I quite agree. And yet, some things remain the same anyway. There's going to be a German economic collapse. Almost certainly a big war started by Germany in Europe. Again almost certainly a war in Poland involving the Soviets, with the rest of the former Russian empire being eaten up too.

Yet I also agree with this big idiot theory, because we've seen it happen in real time last year...twice (and what a year that was).

Nothing is inevitable, but you also can't butterfly away some things without fundemanetlly changing either the people or situation, or chance/luck.

 

[Wraith11B]

I mean, in terms of assassination attempts, sure, but let's say that the bullet that killed the dude just to Hitler's right strikes the better target and kills him instantly. That's a huge rabbit hole, honestly, because then I doubt that the NSDAP gets to be nearly as big as it did.

Hmmm... That makes me wonder about the starting premise of my future project.

 

[El Pip]

Right the utterly out of control next update is rapidly approaching finished and we just need some kind soul to get us to the threshold. And for some other souls to pay attention and not irresponsibly post too far.

 

[RobbieAB]

out of control updates? Isn’t that basically a summary of this entire Project?