The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[El Pip]

Supporting Appendix C: The Education of Iron Ore.​

To understand the various challenges and crises in the period of this work it is not strictly necessary to understand the difference between high and low grade iron ore and how both were turned into steel. Therefore when those subjects arise the technical background is kept to a minimum in order to keep the main points of the chapter clearer, however this may be unsatisfactory for those who desire more detail or wish to understand why certain problems were so serious or why some solutions were not, or could not be, adopted. It is the purpose of this appendix to provide a more detailed overview of the challenges and technology of the time in order to illuminate such matters.

As with steel making itself we begin with iron ore, at the time it was divided into two broad types; low grade and high grade. A high grade ore would be one that contained 60% or more iron content by weight, whereas a low grade ore could be as little as 20% though more typically was around 30%. One problem with low grade should be immediately apparent, twice as much had to be mined and processed per ton of iron produced compared to a high grade ore. This was a consideration certainly but had to be set against one of the problem of high grade ores; they were comparatively rare. In this period it was only Sweden, French and Spanish North Africa, Chile and British Malaya that exported significant quantities of high grade ore and a select few others, notably the USA and USSR, mined large quantities for their own use. In contrast low grade iron ores such as ironstones and ironsands could be found almost everywhere in large quantities, so the savings in transport and import costs often more than offset the need to use larger quantities, to say nothing of the strategic advantages of have a secure domestic supply. Once you had your source of iron ore it was necessary to mine and transport it to your works, so a brief discussion on location is important. Ideally of course your site would be close to coal, iron and good transport links but geological process being what they are such sites were incredibly rare. Therefore when forced to pick the correct choice in the period was to be close to the iron ore; if you were using low grade ore than a typical works could use four times as much iron ore as coking coal, even with higher grades it would still need two tonnes of iron ore for each ton of coke. For transportation water remained viable and several large works were associated with canal extensions, notably the Reichswerke Herman Goering, but rail connections were generally preferred. Having mined and transported your ore and coal to your works it was then necessary to produce pig iron.

The tapping of a blast furnace to produce pig iron at the start of the 20th Century. The blast furnace is the large structure in the centre of the picture, a hole is opened (tapped) at the bottom and molten iron comes out. It runs along the central channel and into the bays at the side, the layout somewhat resembling piglet suckling on a mother pig and hence the product being named pig iron. While the technology for tapping and collecting pig iron had changed, in many cases it as transferred as molten liquid straight into the steel works, the name had stuck even for material not produced via a blast furnace​

Broadly speaking there were two ways to produce pig iron, in a blast furnace and in a rotary kiln. Of those two the blast furnace was by far the more popular at something like 95% of all production because it was simpler, more reliable, cheaper to build and in practice cheaper to run. That kilns kept being tried was because theoretically they could be far cheaper to run in terms of fuel use, the problem was they never quite lived up to that promise when built. The blast furnace was conceptually very simple; iron ore, coking coal and limestone were poured into the top and ignited, hot air was then forced through the furnace. A redox reaction then took place in which the iron oxides in the ore were reduced and the carbon in the coke oxidised, resulting in pure molten iron was tapped off at the bottom as pig iron, while most of the impurities reacted with the limestone to form a slag which floated to the top. A rotary kiln was broadly similar, except it was horizontal not vertical and the rotation was claimed to give great advantages in mixing the material and controlling the reaction and therefore producing the cost savings. Both process produced the same product, a typical pig iron was 90 to 95% pure iron with the balance being the impurities that had not reacted in the blast furnace, however even this relatively small residual was enough to make pig iron a brittle and unreliable material, one that that needed further processing to be useful. Depending on the works the pig iron could be diverted elsewhere, much of it ended up in everything from grey cast iron for water pipes to wrought iron for a decorative gate or forge iron for a car engine foundry. For that which was intended to become steel it was transferred to the next stage, because all the processes involved extreme heat this was the advantage to an integrated iron and steel works; the pig iron could be moved as liquid metal by ladle straight to the steel plant, saving the fuel cost of re-melting it.

Krupp Renn type rotary kilns at an integrated iron and steel works. The kilns are the long tubes running from the large chimney and plant at the rear to the front, they are installed at a slight slope with the input end being higher than the output. All of the various types of rotary kiln operated on the same basis, the iron ore was ground up and poured into one end of the kiln and then heated, as the material moved down the kiln the oxygen and other impurities were driven off. In a standard kiln the material emerged as a range of powders which were passed through a magnetic separator and then sent for sintering to produce material ready for the next step in the process. The Krupp Renn types were more ambitious types and claimed to be capable of lumps of iron ready for being fed into a furnace for steel making, this added capability came at the cost of added complexity and, in practice, severely reduced reliability.​

With your pig iron obtained it was necessary to select which steel making process to use and this would depend upon what impurities were in your ore and therefore in your pig iron. It was a two part choice first selecting a process (converter or hearth) and then a lining type (acid or basic), the combination would depend on what pig iron you have made and what quality of steel you wish to produce. The process were conceptually similar, using blasts of air through or over the molten pig iron to oxidise any remaining impurities and remove any excess carbon left over from the blast furnace. In a converter the air was forced in from the bottom and passed through the molten pig iron, the heat of the oxidisation reactions being such that the material remained molten without any external heat and the entire process could take half an hour or less for a 25 tonne charge. In an open hearth furnace the pig iron was placed on the hearth and externally heated hot air was instead passed over the top of the pig iron to achieve the same effect. While the capacities could be larger, anything from 200 to 600 tonnes, the times were longer and 10 to 14hours was typical. With the hearths being slower and requiring additional fuel the question should be why was anyone using it? The answer was control, a converter was too quick for the analysis techniques of the period, so it was impossible to know what grade of steel you would get until you had the final product. The slower hearth process allowed time for analysis and adjustments to be made, it also allowed more control so a more homogenous material could be produced. Broadly speaking then for average quality steel in bulk, for structural or naval usage for instance, converter steel was good enough and so generally dominated due to it's lower cost. Where higher quality or a more homogenous product was required, in tooling steel or armour plate, then open hearth steel was preferred. An open hearth process could also make much better use of scrap and this could close much of the cost gap with converter steel when prices were scrap prices were reasonable.

An electric arc furnace being opened up ready to receive the next charge of material, the furnace being the large cylinder in the top centre with the gouts of flame emerging. As one would guess the electric arc furnace generated it's heat via electrical arcing, large electrodes were mounted in the lid of the furnace and the electricity arced between them and the metal in the furnace, generating intense heat and melting the metal. Very much a low capacity niche endeavour it was the most controllable process and the only one capable of running entirely on scrap, which again allowed finer control of the final steel alloy. As such the few steelworks that used electric arc furnaces tended towards specialist alloys, for instance the Brymbo works in North Wales supplied Rolls Royce with many of the high performance alloys needed for their aero-engines. The technology itself also found use in other industries, the furnaces used to produce calcium carbonate used essentially the same sort of reactors.​

The choice of lining type reflected what particular impurity you were most concerned with, if you had mostly silica then you could go with an acidic lining (typically sand or clay) and if you combined that with a converter then you had the moderately well known Bessemer converter. Unfortunately many iron ores regardless of grade were associated with relatively large amounts of phosphorous and thus required a flux material to remove them from the pig iron. If you added a flux, such as limestone, to a Bessemer converter you would end up with a basic slag, which by simple chemistry would react with the acidic lining and not only damage the converter but also release the phosphorous back in the molten pig iron. The obvious solution would be to use a basic lining to the convert, this was done and was the basic Bessemer convert or the Thomas converter after it's inventor. Bessemer had however preferred an acidic lining for a reason and the basic process had slightly higher iron losses and needed re-lining more frequently, so an acidic process was used if possible. It was broadly similar for the open hearth, save for the problem that even with a basic lining the process struggled to remove significant amounts of phosphorous. Thus in the period there was something of a divide between continental steel works (which had been built on the basis of French phosphoric iron ores from Lorraine) that used the basic Bessemer process and the British works which preferred the more controllable open hearth process and generally had low phosphorous ores so could use acidic linings. Of course there were exceptions on both sides, the process used by an ironworks was adjusted to suit certain ores and so every permutation found a use somewhere to deal with a particular ore to produce a certain type of steel.

To come back around to iron ore all of these processes, furnaces and plants assumed a certain maximum level of silicate. There were some impurities no amount of processing could remove, or at least not reliably or economically, and so were deemed just impractical for steel making or in extreme cases even iron making. This is why the Corby Process was so widely noticed, the Northamptonshire ores it used had long been deemed unsuitable for iron making let along steel. They were high in alumina and so required a very temperature furnace (which was expensive in coal), aggressive character (so the refractory linings needed replacing) and had a high silica content which could not easily be driven off. Technically a works could just about make cast iron out of it, but it was expensive and the product highly variable making it a poor commercial proposition, while the residual silica content was too high to even think about making steel. The Corby Process solved all of these problems by adding a moderate amount of Soda Ash to the blast furnace, this changed the characteristics of the slag formed to be both thinner (so not requiring the extreme heat) and to be more attractive to silica (making the final product viable for steel). The savings in time and cost were considerable, but the main advantage was the reliability and consistency of the output. While the exact Corby Process was somewhat unique to the Northamptonshire ores it dealt with, it's influence was more in showing that high silica, low grade iron ores could produce high grade steel and do so efficiently.

---
Notes:
Honestly this is far too dry, however I did promise to explain the Corby Process so here we are. In recompense I am double tapping, so onwards to the next chapter which has actual plot.

As I've come this far I will just add that much of the discussion about 'low grade' changed spectacularly in the late 20th century. Ironstones and ironsands just stopped being mined and everyone imported high grade ores from Australia, Brazil, Canada, etc. Hence in modern terms low grade ore now means 50% to 55% Fe content mined in India or Iran, and it's basically unsellable to anyone bar domestic customers because no-one wants the bother.

As has been mentioned in the thread, post WW2 cheap pure oxygen became a thing and so Basic Oxygen Steelmaking became the dominant tech. Interestingly Bessemer wanted to use that but couldn't find anyway to get enough pure oxygen in the 19th century, so modern BOS is basically a modified Bessemer converter. The blast furnace however remains unchanged, fundamentally you need to turn a lot of iron oxide into iron and no-one has found a better economic reducing agent so far.

 

[El Pip]

Chapter CLVI: The Iron Laws of Supply and Demand.​

Kipling's Baron would have you believe that it is Iron, Cold Iron, that is master of them all and much of the world in this period would have broadly agreed with his assertion. There were of course many other claimants to the title, ranging from oil and King Coal through to more esoteric choices such as sulphuric acid or indeed the various carbides we have discussed in previous chapters. Yet as we have also seen a large scale integrated iron and steel works was seen by most ambitious leaders as an unarguable sign of modernity and being at least a major regional power. While many of those leaders, or their successors, would find out they had confused cause and effect on this point (building a large steel works did not make you a great power, you could support a large steel works because you were already a great power) the general idea that iron and steel production was a reasonable proxy for industrial strength and military potential remained widely believed. This in large part explains why politicians and policy makers of all stripes across the world had long since decided that the iron and steel industry was too strategically important to be left to market forces and so had assembled a host of industry syndicates and state backed international cartels to 'control' the industry. At the top of this pile was the International Steel Cartel which oversaw a carefully constructed system of quotas, tariffs and market share divisions all designed to solve the problem of severe over-capacity that had plagued the industry in the 1920s. Unsurprisingly therefore the cartel leadership proved utterly incapable of promptly or even coherently dealing with the problem of a shortage, their fumbled response turned what should have been a moderate disruption in the balance of supply and demand in the iron and steel industry into the great pig iron shortage of 1937.

A very high level understanding of the iron and steel process is necessary to understand the crisis, to oversimplify iron ore is converted to pig iron in a blast furnace, it is the combined with scrap metal and turned into steel in a converter or a hearth furnace. Those who desire a more detailed explanation of the processes and challenges of the industry will find it in Appendix C, but this explanation will suffice for the purposes of this chapter. Suitably informed it is sufficient to say that the steel industry was caught in a pincer between rising demand for steel and falling availability of raw materials. Specifically there was a shortage of scrap metal, or at least a shortage of scrap at prices the steelworks were prepared to pay, and so the steelworks had increased the pig iron to scrap ratio in their furnaces and it was this which caused the noticeable shortage of pig iron. As has been implied this was a fairly standard problem of supply and demand and in fact it mostly took care of itself; more pig iron capacity was commissioned and the higher scrap prices encouraged more scrap onto the market. Incidents such as these would not normally detain us, a great many other commodities would experience similar temporary imbalances and shortages as the world economy continued to recover throughout the 1930s. However because of the fumbled and ponderous response of the cartel global steel output was disrupted for several months and, because steel output was considered so strategically and politically important, several nations resorted to quite drastic measures to ensure they would never be in a similar situation again. These measures would take on a diplomatic and strategic life of their own with the consequences being felt long after the iron and steel industries had returned to normal, as such they are worth of our attention.

The blast furnaces of Stewart & Lloyd's iron and steel works at Corby. The tall structures on the left are four of the blast furnaces, the associated silo like structures on the right are the stoves that pre-heated the air that was blasted into the furnaces. One of the largest and most modern works in the UK the large number of rail tracks and trucks in the foreground testament to the works prodigious output and vast demand for raw materials. Despite it's large size the works were originally intended to be far larger, however political concerns about the impact on the wider industry and especially the existing works in the Special Areas forced the plans to be scaled back. During the crisis the matter was raised again as it was suggested the additional capacity come from new works in the Special Areas, but such plans would be far slower and require government subsidy. Instead permission was given for Stewart & LLoyd to significantly expand the Corby works to almost it's original proposed size, including a large number of additional blast furnaces to more than triple pig iron production at the site.​

We begin in Germany where steel production had been a matter of considerable concern even before the pig iron supply problems. The factories of the Reich had a seemingly insatiable appetite for steel, not just to meet the ambitious rearmament plans but for the large domestic building programme and for the exports (or barter deals) necessary to pay for German imports. This was a problem as Germany was deeply dependent on imports of high grade iron ore, around 2/3rds of the ore used was imported and of those imports a quarter came from France and a full half from Sweden. Efforts to increase supply from those sources had not gone well, increased dependence on France was politically unfavoured and, after the Rhineland Crisis had shown France was not quite as pliable as believed, strategically risky. Increased supplies from Sweden were preferred but hit the problem of finding items of sufficient value to barter for them, along with the iron ore large amounts of scrap metal and other vital items such as ball bearings all needed paying for and there was precious little that Sweden wanted that Germany was prepared, or even able, to export in sufficiently large quantities. In this context the failure of Junkers to win the Swedish bomber contract was a serious blow as those funds had been earmarked to pay for a host of Swedish imports. Other sources such as Luxembourg were looked at but could not provide sufficient quantity to make a difference, while the great hope of Spanish North Africa was dashed when the Monarchist council agreed with the British proposal to keep mineral sales a private, if heavily taxed, matter. With the German agents in Spain only really authorised for governmental level bartering, and with what they could offer severely limited by the Reich's re-armament plans, they unsurprisingly lost out to the bids of the British steel firms and their hard currency offers. The German government's solution was to accelerate the Four Year Plan and it's push for self sufficiency in iron and steel production, specifically it was the success of the Corby Works in the UK that inspired them to look at using their own previously dismissed low grade iron ores. The resulting facility was the truly massive Reichswerke Herman Goering, named after Goering in his capacity as Reich Plenipotentiary for the Four Year Plan, located near the Salzgritter ore deposits and connected by canal to the coal mines of the Ruhr valley. With the order to accelerate the plans it was necessary to increase the processing capacity as the planned Lurgi rotary kilns would not be able to process enough ore and here we come to the first serious impact. Looking around for options it was noted that Krupp were seeking a licence to export a large number of their Krupp-Renn rotary kilns to Manchuria, the Japanese also being keen to increase the use of domestic low grade iron ores in their puppet state. The economic ministries were looking favourably on the proposal as it would help the balance of payment with Manchuria, after the Soya Beans for Machinery deal negotiated earlier in the year they had to export something. However for Goering this appeared to be a guns or butter decision and there was no doubt where he came on that scale, so the order was cancelled and the machinery diverted to the Reichswerke.

The Showa Steel Works in Manchuria, the first incarnation of the works began operation in 1918 but by the 1930s it had become one of the show-pieces of the Japanese 'modernisation' of Manchukuo. When the works were re-organised and re-named in honour of the emperor it was, of course, the Japanese emperor that was honoured and not the Manchukuo emperor, a clear sign of who actually held power and respect in Manchuria. The works were fed by a mix of local low grade ore and imported high grade ore from Malaya, Australia and the Philippines, in an effort to reduce that dependency and use entirely domestic ores a purchasing mission had been dispatched to Germany to acquire both machinery and licences for processing low grade and highly siliceous iron ores. While the German ore kilns were theoretically capable of doing this, given the great difficulties faced by the Reichswerke in getting their kilns to work reliably there is an argument that the export ban was overall positive for the Japanese steel industry, though it was of course not seen that way in Tokyo.​

This naturally leads us to the Far East where this was not the only way in which the situation had not developed to the advantage of the Japanese iron and steel industry. As in Germany the clique in charge of the Japanese government had decided to prioritise both increased production and increased self-sufficiency and these had formed part of the Five Year plan. In respect of steel the plan had two main parts, increasing domestic production and securing control of overseas supplies. The first we have briefly discussed in Chapter CXXXIX, the Manchurian Heavy Industrial Development Corporation was tasked with developing the low grade iron ores of Manchuria and upgrading the steel works to both use these ores and to increase production. To this end a delegation had been sent to Germany to acquire technology and equipment, specifically technology that could process low grade iron ores along with an initial batch of such equipment. It was these orders that had been cancelled, a decision which while not entirely unexpected was still something of a shock that Germany would renege on a deal. Indeed there was an increasing view in Tokyo that this was part of a pattern of behaviour and that Germany was prioritising relationships with China and Britain over those with Japan, this was an entirely correct deduction on the part of the Japanese foreign ministry and the diversion of the order was another heavy blow to already damaged relations. Worse was to follow as the other branch of the plan, the effort to secure overseas supplies of high grade iron ore, also suffered a severe setback from an entirely different source. Japan's traditional iron ore suppliers were British Malaya and the Philippines, the former was already at full capacity and the US government were vetoing efforts of Japanese firms to expand in the latter, not for any diplomatic or strategic reason but due to simple protectionism. Japan therefore looked to it's other main supplier Australia, having long imported large quantities from the 'Iron Knob' deposits of South Australia they turned their eyes to the west of the country and the ore reserves there. Acting through a proxy the Nippon Mining corporation had acquired at lease at Yampi Sound in the north west of the country and intended to mine a million tonnes a year of very high grade ore for export to Japan. It should be noted the project had been in trouble prior to the crisis, the decision to use only US mining equipment and imported Japanese engineers and labourers appears almost calculated to upset the state and federal governments, but it was during the pig iron shortage that the final blow was dealt. The catalyst was one of the seemingly least accurate reports ever written, the Woolnough report, in which the government's geotechnical advisor reviewed the known iron ore reserves of Australia and declared they were barely sufficient for the country's industrial ambitions. Of course in hindsight this is ridiculously incorrect as Western Australia alone has 1/3rd of the world's total iron ore reserves, but at the time it was sufficient to justify the Yampi Sound project being terminated and an embargo declared on iron ore exports. This was a double blow to Tokyo as it left their supplies lower than they had been before the Yampi Sound project started, unsurprisingly it further soured relations with Canberra which were already poor due to the ongoing trade dispute over wool exports. Worse was to follow as the proxy agents for the mine had placed orders and started works, so were desperate not to be left out of pocket when Japan pulled the plug. As such they stared to hustle and managed to drum up enough interest in Canberra and the City of London to put together an 'All Empire' consortium and float a new mining company to take over the lease. This was partly a bet on Australian industrial growth soon requiring the ore but in the short term it was also a security measure to secure the UK's supply; the closure of the Mediterranean during the Abyssinian War had cut off supplies from French North Africa and it was clear the Baltic route to Sweden was just as vulnerable. Western Australia may have been much further away, but the only chokepoints it passed were British controlled and therefore it was deemed a 'safe' source. The distinction that ore being sent to the UK, or as it transpired the mills of British India, was not an export as it stayed within the British Empire did not impress anyone in Japan and was another sore point to add to the bitterness over British involvement in China. There was a growing view in more excitable Japanese circles that Britain was 'interfering' in the Far East and were the largest single barrier to the region coming into the Japanese sphere of influence. While many spoke of the honour and prestige that would come from removing British influence from the Far East, the more convincing voices noted that such a move would also leave the oil and mineral wealth of South East Asia open for Japan to control. In the aftermath of the ore export ban, when it was shown that even owning the company and the mine was not sufficient to make a foreign source 'secure', this was a particularly strong argument.

The Sri Medan Iron Mine in Johor State, one of the Unfederated Malay States that, along with the Federated Malay States and the Crown Colony of the Straits Settlement, made up British Malaya. Sri Medan had opened in 1921 and was owned by the Japanese Ishihara Sangyo Koshi company who exported all of it's output back to Japan. In the era of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance this had been an entirely acceptable proposition, particularly as Britain had no particular need for Malay iron ore for it's own use. As relations with Japan deteriorated concerns were raised, however the Unfederated Malay States were British protectorates and not colonies so only had a British 'advisor' rather than the more powerful 'chief minister' who effectively ran the Federated Malay States. Of course in extremis London could have imposed any change they wished if they were prepared to expend the time and political capital, however the situation was not judged to be so serious as to justify the damaged relations and diplomatic problems that would result from forcing the issue. The answer to why Johor was so keen on the mines was simple; recognising Japanese desperation iron ore exports attracted a high level of duty, over twice that levied on tin or rubber exports, making the mines a valuable source of revenue for the sultan.​

Finally we turn to London where the lack of response to the crisis was itself the reaction with long lasting consequences. This was not the masterly inactivity of the civil service nor an unexpected outbreak of free market policy, it was instead the result of the tangled policy web the government had managed to trap itself in on the subject of steel. Government intervention into the industry had been broad and far reaching, running from tariffs and quotas through to forced mergers and threats to the banking industry to ensure only certain new works or expansion projects could find funding. Due to the complete lack of a central industrial policy each of these interventions had left behind a board, committee or other lobby group, all of which felt they should have considerable influence on the next intervention. Thus during the pig iron shortage the government had to contend with the Import Duties Advisory Committee (mostly consumers arguing for lowered tariffs on imports to relive the shortage), the British Iron & Steel Federation (the producers group arguing for more local production), the Steel Cartel (insisting the tariffs on non-cartel states were kept high), the Imperial Trade Council (which was trying to co-ordinate any tariff changes with the Dominions) and the Bankers' Industrial Development Corporation (the Bank of England body used to 'manage' finance for the industry which was concerned the existing works remained viable and able to pay their debts). To this could be added the Board of Trade, Foreign Office, Dominion Office and of course the Treasury who all had a view on what should happen to tariffs and where, or if, imports should come from, to say nothing of the large number of individual MPs arguing for policies that would help their specific constituencies. A particular example would be the Wearside MPs concerned about the shutting of a rivet factory in Sunderland, allegedly due to cheap foreign steel imports undercutting them. In reality the works were shutting due to the massive increase in welding causing a collapse in demand for rivets, but this pointed to another problem; welding required different types and grades of steel, so all the carefully calibrated tariffs and quotas of the cartel were no longer appropriate. Finally there was the devaluation of the Gold Bloc, suddenly a large numbers of previously struggling continental producers were suddenly very competitive due to their much weaker currencies, which again significantly disrupted the market.

Ebbw Vale Iron, Steel and Tin works from the north of the valley looking down towards the works. The owners of the works, the Richard Thomas Company, had intended to build the works in Lincolnshire near a rich supply of ironstone and an existing iron & steel cluster they could benefit from and supply. However due to industry and government pressure they had been unable to obtain finance and were instead forced to build the works in South Wales, one of the Special Areas that had been hit hardest by the Depression. Unfortunately the valleys of South Wales had terrible transportation links and the local supply network, such as still existed, was based around coal mining and so off almost no use to a large steel and tin works. While the works itself was large and modern, having one of the first continuous strip mills in the UK, and it's chosen market was buoyant due to the ever increasing demand for tinned goods, it would forever be fighting against a location that was generously described as 'hopeless'​

On the specific problem a response was eventually cobbled together; the Bank of England relaxed it's financing restrictions so money flowed into new pig iron capacity (almost all outside of the Special Areas) and the import quotas were expanded resulting in extra imports of now cheap pig iron from recently de-valued Belgium. These measures, along with some extra pig iron imports from India, mostly resolved the crisis until scrap supplies caught up with the higher prices and demand. In the aftermath the question of how to avoid the problem reoccurring occupied a great many minds, one popular solution championed by the opposition was that the government had not intervened enough. Both Labour and the Liberal Social Democrats claimed the need for a Department of Steel, under a powerful Ministry for Industry, that could replace many of the forest of bodies and intervene before a crisis occurred, the difference being Labour assumed this would be by managing the entirely nationalised industry while the LSDs thought heavy control of a mostly private industry would suffice. The latter of those views also found favour among the wetter side and indeed more paternalistic parts of the Conservative party, if steel was too important to be left to the market then interventions and management should be done properly. Ominously for Conservative party unity an alternative view was developing, one which noted that most of the measures implemented were in fact un-doing previous interventions or relaxing restrictions that had stopped the market correcting itself. There was also the matter of Ebbw Vale steelworks which for those opposed to more active intervention was becoming their go to example of the limitations and problems of doing so. Forced into a poor location by government pressure the works had been in trouble from the start, construction running wildly over-budget due to the poor ground conditions and, portentously, the high cost of transporting everything to site. Once finally operational the advantage of the modern and efficient plant was not sufficient to the lack of a trained workforce or offset the cost of having to import all the raw materials and then ship the product out to distant markets. Having already been bailed out once during construction, the crisis forced a second bailout as much of the works were idle due to lack of raw materials. For the growing anti-intervention faction the works were fast becoming an embarrassment and worse there was no prospect of things improving. While there were proposals to somewhat alleviate the transport problems they were likely to be very expensive and could not overcome the fundamental problem that the works were in the wrong place, distant from both the needed raw materials and their key markets. For many therefore the correct lesson to draw was not to intervene harder and sooner, but more gently and with caution and overall with a lot more deference to the advice and warnings of industry. It was correctly thought that the steel industry would not be the last high profile and 'strategic' industry to encounter difficulties and so the political battlelines over the response to the next crisis were already being drawn even before it was known quite what the specific problem would be.

---
Notes:
A double tap of updates, one of which features plot! And Steel. Mostly steel I admit, but also some plot advancement.

The bones of this are OTL, there were a great many cartels and federations, there was a pig iron shortage for much of 1937, the Reichswerke Herman Goering absolutely was a thing (it would grow and grow throughout the war as more looted industries were added) as was the Japanese mission to Germany and their overseas mines. However we are reaching the point were the ripples from earlier changes and starting to make waves and cause changes, thus plot is occurring.

Germany did in OTL source a lot of iron from Spanish North Africa, just under 2 million tonnes a year in 1938 and would have increased further but for the British blockade. In Butterfly that is not an option so it is even more urgent to make use of local ore, hence seizing the Japanese equipment orders. Would Goering be that brutal to Japan, I think so given the situation. He was always more in favour of the German-Chinese alliance and with no Sino-Japanese War and no Anti-Cominten Pact industrial reality is over-riding ideological gestures, not least because von Ribbentrop has been sidelined and Hitler fundamentally didn't care about the Far East but was very interested in having lots of steel.

Yampi Sound was an OTL Japanese effort as was the Australian iron ore ban and the Woolnough report. In fairness to Woolnough a reserve is only a reserve if you can economically mine it and get it to market for less than the selling price, in 1930s Australia transport costs were such that most of the iron ore in the country probably wasn't viable to mine. I have brought forward the iron ore export ban by 9 months or so, but with Australia far more advanced in its industrialisation plans that seemed reasonable. OTL the mine project lapsed when Japan pulled out but restarted post-war so it was viable. Canberra is allowing the project to go ahead as they expect/hope that it will soon divert it's output to the growing Australian steel industry and trust that an Anglo-Australian owned company would be happy to do that in the way a Japanese company would not. The Malay iron ore mines and the reasoning is OTL and a reminder that the British Empire was a mess of colonies, protectorates and other variations of which London had equally variable influence and control.

The ridiculous mass of bodies is mostly OTL, there is one addition the Imperial Trade Council, but the rest could and did ask for entirely contradictory things in the OTL shortage. The MPs concerned about a rivet factory did of course happen, as did the terrible reasoning behind Ebbw Vale and it's regular financial problems. The Conservative splits mostly got papered over as foreign affairs dominated and then there was a war, but they did exist and in the absence of other distractions will become more serious.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

International Steel Cartel

I trust they were as ridiculously ineffectual as the name implies.

the great pig iron shortage of 1937

There we go. And a doubling down on silly names. This is good.

because steel output was considered so strategically and politically

Oh dear...does that mean-

several nations resorted to quite drastic measures to ensure they would never be in a similar situation again.

Another classic Pip state(s) overcorrection.

This was a problem as Germany was deeply dependent on imports of high grade iron ore, around 2/3rds of the ore used was imported and of those imports a quarter came from France and a full half from Sweden.

So I am begining to understand. This is going to be a headache for Ouster at some point...

ball bearings

Apparently, very complicated and vital things in modern society.
Also apparently, not made in very many places.
Which, further apparently, is a big problem for Russia right now.

the British steel firms and their hard currency offers

They want to buy our minerals with our money.
Sounds perfectly reasonable.

accelerate the Four Year Plan

To make it the Slightly Less Than Four Year Plan?

it's push for self sufficiency in iron and steel production

Any chance of that happening either in this timeline or any alt-hist one?

The resulting facility was the truly massive Reichswerke Herman Goering, named after Goering in his capacity as Reich Plenipotentiary for the Four Year Plan, located near the Salzgritter ore deposits and connected by canal to the coal mines of the Ruhr valley. With the order to accelerate the plans it was necessary to increase the processing capacity as the planned Lurgi rotary kilns would not be able to process enough ore and here we come to the first serious impact. Looking around for options it was noted that Krupp were seeking a licence to export a large number of their Krupp-Renn rotary kilns to Manchuria, the Japanese also being keen to increase the use of domestic low grade iron ores in their puppet state. The economic ministries were looking favourably on the proposal as it would help the balance of payment with Manchuria, after the Soya Beans for Machinery deal negotiated earlier in the year they had to export something.

The first of many weird and 'wonderful' things to occur in and around that place, I'm sure.

the Five Year plan

And another! This trend clearly died off at some point, after a big fad. Clearly we should revive the concept for the modern day, if only to figure out who the baddies are.

Germany was prioritising relationships with China and Britain over those with Japan, this was an entirely correct deduction

It's a pretty correct decision too, really. Will be ruined by the Nazis, but that's par for the course.

the seemingly least accurate reports ever written

Oooo...that's a big call.
Big call.
Big call.

declared they were barely sufficient

in hindsight this is ridiculously incorrect as Western Australia alone has 1/3rd of the world's total iron ore reserves

In hindsight, Australia wasn't planning on building a huge battleship fleet and tank army?

Shame.

an 'All Empire' consortium

Ah...yes...those always turn out...Great...

There was a growing view in more excitable Japanese circles that Britain was 'interfering' in the Far East

Um...Well...technically correct, I suppose? Points for observation.

In the aftermath of the ore export ban, when it was shown that even owning the company and the mine was not sufficient to make a foreign source 'secure',

Pffft. If you wanted consistent rules, you shouldn't have westernised.

In the era of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance

What are people's thoughts on that. What do they reckon?

the lack of response to the crisis was itself the reaction

They played their power card: masterful inaction.

This was not the masterly inactivity of the civil service

No stealing when I am stealing!

the government had managed to trap itself in on the subject of steel.

How silly of them.

Unfortunately the valleys of South Wales had terrible transportation links and the local supply network, such as still existed, was based around coal mining and so off almost no use to a large steel and tin works.

And of course, having forced them to go there, the government won't expand the transport links or force anyone else to either...

And thus, the natural conclusion is either the government intervened way too much or far too little.

At least the tories are consistent in their meddling.

 

[El Pip]

Let us be optimistic and assume everyone is just taking their time to enjoy the majestic words on steel.

I trust they were as ridiculously ineffectual as the name implies.

They had many names, all of them just as stupid (Continental Cartel, Internationale Rohstahlexportgemeinschaft, etc). They were good at the thing they set out to do. Whether that was a good or necessary thing is a different question, the answer to which is "No" and "No".

There we go. And a doubling down on silly names. This is good.

Silly names all round.

Another classic Pip state(s) overcorrection.

It was a period of such things

So I am begining to understand. This is going to be a headache for Ouster at some point...

He could just stop being an aggressive German nationalist and accept his country's place in the world?

Apparently, very complicated and vital things in modern society.
Also apparently, not made in very many places.
Which, further apparently, is a big problem for Russia right now.

It is often the little things that cause the biggest problems

They want to buy our minerals with our money.
Sounds perfectly reasonable.

Good for the UK, good for Spain, bad for Germany.

To make it the Slightly Less Than Four Year Plan?

To over-fulfil the norms required by the plan comrade Kamerad!

Any chance of that happening either in this timeline or any alt-hist one?

If Germany can put off war till the mid/late 1940s and either massively boost coal output or kill the synthetic fuel programme then.. maybe?

The nazis never really engaged with the coal problem, they were so used to being a coal exporting powerhouse that they always assumed there would be enough. But synthetic oil and rubber use ridiculous amounts of coal, to the point that it was often the pinch-point not iron ore.

The first of many weird and 'wonderful' things to occur in and around that place, I'm sure.

You are correct. I also love Lurgi plant because it makes me think of Spike Milligan.

And another! This trend clearly died off at some point, after a big fad. Clearly we should revive the concept for the modern day, if only to figure out who the baddies are.

It was the fashionable thing to have. Even places as utterly irrelevant as Cuba had a Three Year Economic Plan.

It's a pretty correct decision too, really. Will be ruined by the Nazis, but that's par for the course.

The actual German Foreign Ministry professionals were quite good at their jobs, as you say it was the Nazis and von Ribbentrop in particular who ruined it.

Oooo...that's a big call.

In hindsight, Australia wasn't planning on building a huge battleship fleet and tank army?

Shame.

They've got a few tens of billion of tonnes left, so the army of giant mecha kangaroo remains an option.

Ah...yes...those always turn out...Great...

They will this time I assure you.

What are people's thoughts on that. What do they reckon?

Probably made sense at the time and a defter handling of Versailles would have left it a viable option. Basically, like so much else, it's all David Lloyd George's fault.

They played their power card: masterful inaction.

Sir Humphrey has levelled up and God Calls Him God.

And of course, having forced them to go there, the government won't expand the transport links or force anyone else to either...

A desire not to throw good money after bad is part of it. As is the fact that better transport links won't fix the fundamental problem- Corby will always have cheaper ore (it was built next to the mines) and be closer to the steel demanding clients than Ebbw Vale, a better rail line would narrow the cost gap but can never close it. So even if you are an interventionist then you can plausibly believe that the money/political capital should be spent elsewhere on something that would actually work.

And thus, the natural conclusion is either the government intervened way too much or far too little.

That is the story of why the post-war consensus was such an utter disaster, if only anyone had actually realised that before it was all too late.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I quite liked the steel updates. Makes a lot of sense to go through the process and how it all impacts, esepcially as everyone is convinced they need their own domestic industry.

He could just stop being an aggressive German nationalist and accept his country's place in the world?

I mean...France is almost certainly going to collapse post war no matter what, both in universe and because its HOI4. Germany...probably will be wanting its lands back, even with a democratic Republic in charge (not a single government of wiemar recognised the new border with Poland) and there's issues with Austria to be resolved...

With how HOI4 simulates a conflict with nazis, Germany is going to have all sorts of problems in the 30s internally, let alone internationally.

If Germany can put off war till the mid/late 1940s and either massively boost coal output or kill the synthetic fuel programme then.. maybe?

Well, there 'probably' won't be a war in the west, unless something goes catastrophically wrong. And coal is not present in HOI4, so the synthetic fuel program is actually a very good idea (presumably because it actually allows Germany to function in-game).

Germany does have a lot of coal and relatively high unemployment in the early 30s so...maybe? Idk.

But synthetic oil and rubber use ridiculous amounts of coal, to the point that it was often the pinch-point not iron ore.

May have to either ban myself from using it or figure out in universe reasons. Then again, at least attempting to be a good western democrat, the rest of europe will trade with me for most things.

They will this time I assure you.

This time, I swear. Never heard that before...

Basically, like so much else, it's all David Lloyd George's fault.

I'm dithering on what to do with DLG. He's around, he's missing his Churchill buddy, and Asquith is probably going to lose popular support during the war. Not sure whether I want him in charge or not though...

 

[Midnite Duke]

Any day, that I learn something new, is a good day. Reading a Pip chapter contains enough new facts to give me a good week. I only went down one rabbit hole and found the 1938 Dalfram dispute and Pig Iron Bob. Japan is being pushed into a very small corner. My oddball thoughts are about how the size of the wings and the flapping speed effect the speed and size of the butterfly effects. Thank you for updating and making me think (even if thoughts are strange).

 

[Cromwell]

I now know an awful not more about Iron and Steel production than I did before. Maybe I should do as chairman Mao recomended during the great leap forwards and start making home made steel in a back garden smelter?

 

[Wraith11B]

A great update, for sure... A double, no less!

 

[El Pip]

I quite liked the steel updates. Makes a lot of sense to go through the process and how it all impacts, esepcially as everyone is convinced they need their own domestic industry.

Of all the obsessions of the period, the steel industry one is among the more sensible. Or at least the nations that knew it was economically a bad idea but thought it was worth it for security and strategic reasons.

Germany...probably will be wanting its lands back, even with a democratic Republic in charge

I am reminded of the large Nazi faction around Goering that was obsessed with getting the German colonies back and thought that more important than mucking about in the East.

(not a single government of wiemar recognised the new border with Poland)

And of course German illegal rearmament started under Weimar, if only they had spent that money on actually paying their reparations.

and there's issues with Austria to be resolved...

The issue being Germans need to accept that it isn't part of Germany?

With how HOI4 simulates a conflict with nazis, Germany is going to have all sorts of problems in the 30s internally, let alone internationally.

This is HOI4 so presumably none of those problems are in anyway serious or would impede Germany conquering the world by 1943? Paradox know their market well.

Well, there 'probably' won't be a war in the west, unless something goes catastrophically wrong.

German strategic planning at it's finest. "If this happens we are screwed, so let us assume our enemies will co-operate and not do that." The German Staff were fine at tactics and could mostly do operational level, but were repeatedly awful at strategy.

And coal is not present in HOI4, so the synthetic fuel program is actually a very good idea (presumably because it actually allows Germany to function in-game).

Of course it is, heaven forbid the German player be presented with any form of limitation or trade off.

Germany does have a lot of coal and relatively high unemployment in the early 30s so...maybe? Idk.

The world also has a huge coal surplus in the early 30s and it took about 7 years from "Build a new coal mine" to "Look here is the coal" so it's no short fix.

May have to either ban myself from using it or figure out in universe reasons. Then again, at least attempting to be a good western democrat, the rest of europe will trade with me for most things.

The issue will be what does Germany have to trade

I'm dithering on what to do with DLG. He's around, he's missing his Churchill buddy, and Asquith is probably going to lose popular support during the war. Not sure whether I want him in charge or not though...

Not. Obviously not. Have the Marconi scandal blow up in his face and ruin him and his faction for a generation.

Any day, that I learn something new, is a good day. Reading a Pip chapter contains enough new facts to give me a good week. I only went down one rabbit hole and found the 1938 Dalfram dispute and Pig Iron Bob.

Very kind. And as you say Australian-Japanese relations are very interesting in this period. One of the rabbit holes I have restrained myself from going down is the domestic impact in Australia, some of these disputes were very important in the mythology of the Australian labour movement but I'm not sure how important they actually were.

Japan is being pushed into a very small corner.

Japan wants to be a rising power, but those already at the top have no desire to lose out or drop down. Change or confrontation are inevitable.

My oddball thoughts are about how the size of the wings and the flapping speed effect the speed and size of the butterfly effects. Thank you for updating and making me think (even if thoughts are strange).

I am pleased to have inspired such strange but interesting thoughts.

I now know an awful not more about Iron and Steel production than I did before. Maybe I should do as chairman Mao recomended during the great leap forwards and start making home made steel in a back garden smelter?
View attachment 947564

What could possibly go wrong?

The Great Leap Forward is one of the most actually unique bits of Maoism, certainly it owes nothing to Marx or the Soviet flavour. It is almost Nazi-esque as it's all about willpower and individual determination, if the peasants just tried hard enough then through their individual efforts and the triumph of will China could have an industrial revolution.

A great update, for sure... A double, no less!

I think it worked here, certainly the two had to go together, but it is not something I'm going to rush to reproduce. I am please it was appreciated though.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I am reminded of the large Nazi faction around Goering that was obsessed with getting the German colonies back and thought that more important than mucking about in the East.

The mainstream desire by most germans and political movements seems to have been:

Danzig at all costs.
The rest of Eastern prussia if at all possible.
Army allowed back into the west.
And maybe Austria, though this is a lot more contentious in Germany and Austria.

No one really seems to have cared about the german colonies, except perhaps German East Africa, because they fought there for so long. I doubt it'll come up aside from ouster shutting that idea down hard for being really stupid in all sorts of ways.

Of all the obsessions of the period, the steel industry one is among the more sensible. Or at least the nations that knew it was economically a bad idea but thought it was worth it for security and strategic reasons.

Makes sense too. If you want to industrial your country, it starts with finding some local coal mines and a domestic steel industry. You're going to need plenty of both for everything else.

And of course German illegal rearmament started under Weimar, if only they had spent that money on actually paying their reparations.

Lots of mess to figure out. And that prussian militarism and aristocracy never went away, so there are the standard conservatives, the traditional miltiary (whom are the majority of the middle and upper classes, and all the judges and miktiary officers left in the country), then the nazis making up the right wing. Very powerful, cannot be ignored.

The issue being Germans need to accept that it isn't part of Germany?

This is HOI4, so even if they accept that, Austria might still democratically vote for annexation. And in OTL, it seems to have been a genuine question, albeit a very contested and violent one. If it happened in game, I'd probably allow it for interest, and because it increases the chances of us fighting Italy sooner rather than later.

This is HOI4 so presumably none of those problems are in anyway serious or would impede Germany conquering the world by 1943? Paradox know their market well.

I've tested this. If Germany gets into a mega meltdown worst case scenario civil war in 1936 (it'll be much earlier in universe. Probably 1930 to 33 or around then, if it happens), then the nazis obliterate rhe population and industry of any area they're pushed out of.

Germany loses quite a lot of industry and pops, and takes a good few years to rebuild. In exchange, it gets an experienced army, some good diplomacy points from the western countries, and the cancelling of the demilitarised zone in the rhur and rhineland.

In universe, the perspective from the outside is probably along the lines of 'oh good, Germany has been weakened and stayed democratic ish. We could probably stand to be a bit nicer to them now.'

German strategic planning at it's finest. "If this happens we are screwed, so let us assume our enemies will co-operate and not do that." The German Staff were fine at tactics and could mostly do operational level, but were repeatedly awful at strategy.

Makes sense in a way, but yeah, not having a plan for it at all (or figuring out how likely it is) seems daft. Of course, this is HOI4 so we know democratic nations aren't going to attack one another without a ton of warning from the system.

Of course it is, heaven forbid the German player be presented with any form of limitation or trade off.

Going to have to figure out some excuse for the germans to have outside funding for that project and developing oil techniques...maybe the amercians bankroll it because they hate the UK and like oil?

The issue will be what does Germany have to trade

HOI4 has it as civilian factory capacity, so I suppose building and construction materials, expertise, machine products, and manufactured goods. Unless the deal is that we literally make whatever the other side wants in our own factories with our own resources, which seems to be the case in game...

Not. Obviously not. Have the Marconi scandal blow up in his face and ruin him and his faction for a generation.

Mm. Good point. Would allow me to remove everyone I don't like from the Liberal whig hierarchy before the war even started. But then who replaces Asquith as war leader?

 

[Midnite Duke]

Is the Butterfly Effect tangentially related to HoI4 or HoI2? Though when 6th Pip of lineage Pipette A and the 5th Pip of cadet house Pipette B complete the Patriarch's vision, they will probably be in the Stellaris 3 forum. Is the name "The Butterfly Composer" a subtle homage to this masterpiece?

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Is the Butterfly Effect tangentially related to HoI4 or HoI2? Though when 6th Pip of lineage Pipette A and the 5th Pip of cadet house Pipette B complete the Patriarch's vision, they will probably be in the Stellaris 3 forum. Is the name "The Butterfly Composer" a subtle homage to this masterpiece?

No

 

[caffran]

Hmmmm, a double update. that was . . . unexpected. Definitely appreciated though.

Is it weird that I'm starting to feel slightly sorry for Germany? nothing seems to be going right for them, and I'm getting an uneasy feeling they are going to lash out at someone. not necessarily another country, maybe an 'uprising' internally? the 'little Corporal' promised a lot, and has so far failed to deliver much of anything other embarrassment on the European stage.

However, the plot has moved forward. it seems Japan will be the main threat to the Empire (just as they were OTL. till '38 anyway) and Pippy seems to be positioning Britain to take America's place as their main antagoniser. would be interesting if the British ambassador to the Japanese court has picked up on any ill will directed towards him?

Are you continuing with the Industrial updates next Pip? or can we expect something further afield?

 

[roverS3]

Our lord moves in mysterious ways. One day he refuses to post an update unless the top of the page is available, and will wait weeks if the top post is usurped by a malicious or inattentive reader, the next he post two within minutes of each-other.

Anyhow, I've finally gotten through this pig (iron) of an update, a real slab (of steel) with surprisingly little iron(y), though still enough to occasionally have me rolling (like steel, get it?) with laughter and spitting out my coke (the black & hot kind). It really was a blast (furnace) after all, definitely not a (b)ore, it saved me from me milling about and wasting my Friday evening on something equally unproductive but much less riveting, truly had me stamping my feet in glee at the forging of such new knowledge. I've been converted to the sect of metallurgy aficionados, beaming with pride in my spotless (and stainless) over-alls . Apologies for the puns. I was slightly disappointed by the lack of a pun in the title of appendix C (unless of course I'm not getting it...):

Supporting Appendix C: The Education of Iron Ore.

I guess it's maybe fitting for a purely technical appendix, though I won't let it be said that engineers don't know how to have fun. The second title being a perfect example of that with the dries of ferrous puns:

Chapter CLVI: The Iron Laws of Supply and Demand.

The plot moving forward is also a bit jarring, and it seems to be becoming a more frequent event in this AAR. Has @El Pip decided after 17 years to start rushing things a bit?
Really, it's a slippery slope. Ridiculous, unheard off. Out of the question is... The whole idea... It strikes at the roots of... it's the beginning of the end. The thin end of the weld... eh wedge. Where will it end, the abolition of mettalurgy... ehm the monarchy? Clearly we've got to give the current system a fair try before we start recklessly moving the plot forwards.

Anyhow. Seriously now. A lovely update with lots to learn, and all those little changes compared to OTL that you almost don't notice. Loving Goering cancelling that export deal to Japan. Real long term thinking here. Why are they in such a hurry to produce more steel to the point that the snub their trade partners? They aren't planning on going to war, are they? Really. Are they?

 

[Killerduck]

As weekend came I finally found the time the read the update(s!!!). Iron and steel appendix was informative, I've finally found out why it's called "pig" iron. Did not expect connection to actual pigs.

The real update was really good, one of my favorites from the last few (love Far East, tensions with Japan and industry and industrial policy). Also happy that events are putting Brits and Japan on collision course. Good for the readers (Battle of South China Sea!), good for keeping those pesky independence tendencies of Australia in line.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I'm going to have to reread the whole thing if there's any more plot movement soon. Or go searching for my summary of events a few dozen pages back...

Edit: hum...top of the page too. Should update it for the last 2 years of updates.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Don't you just hate when a post goes up, and the forum declines to inform you? Harrumph...

however this may be unsatisfactory for those who desire more detail

In other words the readership.

if you were using low grade ore than a typical works could use four times as much iron ore as coking coal, even with higher grades it would still need two tonnes of iron ore for each ton of coke.

This is an interesting tidbit. Pretty much every game I've ever played which has some form of steelmaking operates on a 1:1 ratio of iron ore to coal, or worse a larger volume of coal than iron ore. Now, to be fair to games there is some fudging to be done about the term "volume", while I have no exact numbers on hand I would presume that coal being carbon-based is going to be far less dense than iron ores which are based on something heavier the name of which escapes me. However, it is still quite misleading and thus I am glad to see this majestic work addressing such grievous scientific oversights.

The Krupp Renn types were more ambitious types and claimed to be capable of lumps of iron ready for being fed into a furnace for steel making, this added capability came at the cost of added complexity and, in practice, severely reduced reliability.

German engineering at its finest, I am sure.

Broadly speaking then for average quality steel in bulk, for structural or naval usage for instance, converter steel was good enough and so generally dominated due to it's lower cost. Where higher quality or a more homogenous product was required, in tooling steel or armour plate, then open hearth steel was preferred.

I suspect a developing plot point here regarding an impending need for prodigious quantities of armor plating and thus a sudden and rapid conversion of industry to produce the preferred class of steel. Or, in Nazi Germany, the blatant misuse of existing steel due to lack of general intellect within the political hierarchy.

An electric arc furnace being opened up ready to receive the next charge of material, the furnace being the large cylinder in the top centre with the gouts of flame emerging.

Further proof that, given the choice of methods for manufacturing, the one with "arc" in its name is always the coolest.

Honestly this is far too dry,

Nonsense.

And now I see we have been treated to a rare double-header... props where they are due, the authAAR has correctly placed the appendix prior to the update in a rejection of frivolous modern practices which prefer the opposite.

Kipling's Baron would have you believe that it is Iron, Cold Iron, that is master of them all and much of the world in this period would have broadly agreed with his assertion. There were of course many other claimants to the title, ranging from oil and King Coal through to more esoteric choices such as sulphuric acid or indeed the various carbides we have discussed in previous chapters.

Give it another few decades and the nitriding faction shall reign supreme!! ...this timeline, for sure!!

While many of those leaders, or their successors, would find out they had confused cause and effect on this point (building a large steel works did not make you a great power, you could support a large steel works because you were already a great power)

Others of these leaders, and their successors, would continue steadfastly refusing to learn this lesson well into the modern age and beyond.

During the crisis the matter was raised again as it was suggested the additional capacity come from new works in the Special Areas, but such plans would be far slower and require government subsidy. Instead permission was given for Stewart & LLoyd to significantly expand the Corby works to almost it's original proposed size, including a large number of additional blast furnaces to more than triple pig iron production at the site.

One notes that the government intervention would not be necessary had the government not intervened.

The factories of the Reich had a seemingly insatiable appetite for steel, not just to meet the ambitious rearmament plans but for the large domestic building programme and for the exports (or barter deals) necessary to pay for German imports.

It is the tradition of the German nation to put great effort towards developing the science and engineering which will enable them to ignore such mundane things as economics, a tradition which one notes has yet to pay dividends.

However for Goering this appeared to be a guns or butter decision and there was no doubt where he came on that scale, so the order was cancelled and the machinery diverted to the Reichswerke.

Given Goering's frequent and dramatic weight fluctuations, I would argue that there was indeed quite a bit of doubt as to where he would come on the scale at any given time. And the same after he left the doctor's office.

This naturally leads us to the Far East where this was not the only way in which the situation had not developed to the advantage of the Japanese iron and steel industry.

Cute. Very cute.

Indeed there was an increasing view in Tokyo that this was part of a pattern of behaviour and that Germany was prioritising relationships with China and Britain over those with Japan, this was an entirely correct deduction on the part of the Japanese foreign ministry and the diversion of the order was another heavy blow to already damaged relations.

This can only be a good thing for Japan, indeed, allying one's nation with Nazi Germany is about the largest blunder one could make in this period.

The catalyst was one of the seemingly least accurate reports ever written, the Woolnough report, in which the government's geotechnical advisor reviewed the known iron ore reserves of Australia and declared they were barely sufficient for the country's industrial ambitions. Of course in hindsight this is ridiculously incorrect as Western Australia alone has 1/3rd of the world's total iron ore reserves, but at the time it was sufficient to justify the Yampi Sound project being terminated and an embargo declared on iron ore exports.

One of these days, Australia will realize that they are not Britain and will stop trying to pretend like it.

the closure of the Mediterranean during the Abyssinian War had cut off supplies from French North Africa and it was clear the Baltic route to Sweden was just as vulnerable.

Someone should tell Norway so they can be prepared for the inevitable international tensions this situation will create.

The answer to why Johor was so keen on the mines was simple; recognising Japanese desperation iron ore exports attracted a high level of duty, over twice that levied on tin or rubber exports, making the mines a valuable source of revenue for the sultan.

Here we see once again that global economics is better for all involved when the British keep their noses out of it.

Finally we turn to London

Dammit.

These measures, along with some extra pig iron imports from India, mostly resolved the crisis until scrap supplies caught up with the higher prices and demand. In the aftermath the question of how to avoid the problem reoccurring occupied a great many minds, one popular solution championed by the opposition was that the government had not intervened enough.

Yes, clearly, we now need a government intervention to undo the government intervention which solved the problems caused by the government intervention, thus necessitating a following government intervention to solve the problems created by the government intervention currently under consideration.

Ominously for Conservative party unity an alternative view was developing, one which noted that most of the measures implemented were in fact un-doing previous interventions or relaxing restrictions that had stopped the market correcting itself.

When party unity is threatened by base facts of nature, perhaps the party requires a period of brief restructuring and reconsideration of platforms.

It was correctly thought that the steel industry would not be the last high profile and 'strategic' industry to encounter difficulties and so the political battlelines over the response to the next crisis were already being drawn even before it was known quite what the specific problem would be.

Oh good, a cliffhanger, at least by Butterfly standards.

A double tap of updates, one of which features plot! And Steel. Mostly steel I admit, but also some plot advancement.

It is good when the updates focus on what is most important, with the necessary concessions to vagaries such as plot to get the work past the publishing houses in this day and age.

The MPs concerned about a rivet factory did of course happen,

Naturally.

To make it the Slightly Less Than Four Year Plan?

No, no, here we mean "accelerate" literally; we shall consume 50% more petrol to reach the same place, and amazingly at the same time despite driving like maniacs.

And another! This trend clearly died off at some point, after a big fad. Clearly we should revive the concept for the modern day, if only to figure out who the baddies are.

It would be an improvement over the modern practice of doing nothing and then blaming your successor from the opposition party for all that goes wrong during their tenure as a result of your own inaction. Or worse, as a result of your own action.

In hindsight, Australia wasn't planning on building a huge battleship fleet and tank army?

Shame.

Indeed. What could have been, if only our old friend @markkur had been in charge...

Let us be optimistic and assume everyone is just taking their time to enjoy the majestic words on steel.

Damn forum software I swear to God...

It is often the little things that cause the biggest problems

Indeed. One wonders how world history might have been different if fewer world leaders had been cursed with, ah, "little things".

I mean...France is almost certainly going to collapse post war no matter what, both in universe and because its HOI4.

Bold of you to assume this work is in any way still connected to a game for the purposes of cause and effect, but this aside it is a work for HoI2, although a young person can be forgiven for forgetting the existence of that ancient game.

German strategic planning at it's finest. "If this happens we are screwed, so let us assume our enemies will co-operate and not do that." The German Staff were fine at tactics and could mostly do operational level, but were repeatedly awful at strategy.

To be fair to the Germans, for the longest while this appeared to be a reasonable assumption.

The Great Leap Forward is one of the most actually unique bits of Maoism, certainly it owes nothing to Marx or the Soviet flavour. It is almost Nazi-esque as it's all about willpower and individual determination, if the peasants just tried hard enough then through their individual efforts and the triumph of will China could have an industrial revolution.

One wonders if this is more of a Far Eastern thing, given the similarities with Japanese warrior culture and the earnest belief that the spirit of their soldiers counted for more than the inadequacy and obsoleteness of their weaponry.

Is it weird that I'm starting to feel slightly sorry for Germany? nothing seems to be going right for them, and I'm getting an uneasy feeling they are going to lash out at someone. not necessarily another country, maybe an 'uprising' internally? the 'little Corporal' promised a lot, and has so far failed to deliver much of anything other embarrassment on the European stage.

To be fair this is basically what happened in OTL, aside from the embarrassment as the interwar Allies insisted on rolling over and playing dead at every turn.

The plot moving forward is also a bit jarring, and it seems to be becoming a more frequent event in this AAR. Has @El Pip decided after 17 years to start rushing things a bit?
Really, it's a slippery slope. Ridiculous, unheard off. Out of the question is... The whole idea... It strikes at the roots of... it's the beginning of the end. The thin end of the weld... eh wedge. Where will it end, the abolition of mettalurgy... ehm the monarchy? Clearly we've got to give the current system a fair try before we start recklessly moving the plot forwards.

To be fair to El Pip, after so many years of advancing the plot minimally if at all, finally most of the pieces may be in place to actually roll the plot forward in a largely unforced fashion, an enviable state for a work of fiction to find itself in and one which modern Hollywood and TV writers could stand to take notes from.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Don't you just hate when a post goes up, and the forum declines to inform you? Harrumph...

How dare you not check the forum every day...

This is an interesting tidbit. Pretty much every game I've ever played which has some form of steelmaking operates on a 1:1 ratio of iron ore to coal, or worse a larger volume of coal than iron ore.

Chemically speaking, the ratio isn't so bad. But in terms of industry, you need a lot of coal to get the temperature up and then more iron ore to the mixture itself.

And now I see we have been treated to a rare double-header... props where they are due, the authAAR has correctly placed the appendix prior to the update in a rejection of frivolous modern practices which prefer the opposite.

I've never seen Tolkien referred to as frivolous and prompt before but alright...

One notes that the government intervention would not be necessary had the government not intervened.

Just have to get the intervention right the first time, of course...

It is the tradition of the German nation to put great effort towards developing the science and engineering which will enable them to ignore such mundane things as economics, a tradition which one notes has yet to pay dividends.

Meh. Does mean that when they start to pay attention, they'll be in pretty good nick.

Given Goering's frequent and dramatic weight fluctuations, I would argue that there was indeed quite a bit of doubt as to where he would come on the scale at any given time. And the same after he left the doctor's office.

A lot of people say the nazis would have been worse if not for Hitler. But given how everyone else in the high circle was deeply unpopular, a drug addict or a complete pyscho, I'm not sure they would have been...

This can only be a good thing for Japan, indeed, allying one's nation with Nazi Germany is about the largest blunder one could make in this period.

They probably could have done better in making nice with the British OTL, as they may well have gotten away with all sorts of mischief before inevitably bering declared war on.

One of these days, Australia will realize that they are not Britain and will stop trying to pretend like it.

Their destiny is much like the US. An absolutely massive country full of resources and one day, the population to match.

Here we see once again that global economics is better for all involved when the British keep their noses out of it.

They did build it...but never really liked it unless it worked in their favour.

Oh good, a cliffhanger, at least by Butterfly standards.

Food, fuel or munitions.

Bold of you to assume this work is in any way still connected to a game for the purposes of cause and effect, but this aside it is a work for HoI2, although a young person can be forgiven for forgetting the existence of that ancient game.

I suppose I should play it at some point. Though you may not like the results if I write what happens as straight as I did with HOI4...

 

[nuclearslurpee]

I've never seen Tolkien referred to as frivolous and prompt before but alright...

Here in the Pipverse strange things come to pass. Rumor has it that Pip has received fan mail from Entish folks, extolling the virtues of the work but requesting that the pace be picked up a bit.

I suppose I should play it at some point. Though you may not like the results if I write what happens as straight as I did with HOI4...

It could not possibly be worse than HoI4, of this I am certain. HoI2 hails from the era where Paradox's greatest sins were a lack of research and making things too easy for Germany, grievous sins to be sure but a far cry from the current muck and mire which is better termed Preferred Extremist/Nationalist Ideology Simulator.

 

[El Pip]

No one really seems to have cared about the german colonies, except perhaps German East Africa, because they fought there for so long.

The Reichskolonialbund are sobbing at being so cruelly ignored. Somehow they managed to have 1.5 million members in 1939 so there was at least a sizeable minority who cared to some degree.

And in OTL, it seems to have been a genuine question, albeit a very contested and violent one.

Indeed. The wide crop of the woman saluting while crying at the Anschluss is interesting, apart from her you have a woman in black leather looking far too keen on the whole thing and another woman in the middle looking somewhat nonplussed.

Going to have to figure out some excuse for the germans to have outside funding for that project and developing oil techniques...maybe the amercians bankroll it because they hate the UK and like oil?

There is a line in one of the USAAF bombing reviews along the lines of "We knew exactly where the Nazi Synthentic Oil Industry was, we built it for them". Standard Oil was neck deep, if not worse, in trading with IG Farben right up until the end of 1941. Broadly speaking they wanted German synthetic rubber tech (as the US was utterly dependent on imports) and supplied them plenty of oil related tech in exchange. There's no reason that trade wouldn't still happen.

Is the Butterfly Effect tangentially related to HoI4 or HoI2? Though when 6th Pip of lineage Pipette A and the 5th Pip of cadet house Pipette B complete the Patriarch's vision, they will probably be in the Stellaris 3 forum.

HOI2, hence why we remain in this exclusive and refined sub-forum. And to be honest it's going to take at least until that generation to complete the Patriach's vision of getting to 1948 as was threatened on Page 1.

It is an open question as to whether this work could even reach a Stellaris compatible date before the heat death of the universe.

Is the name "The Butterfly Composer" a subtle homage to this masterpiece?

No

Not just a river in Egypt.

Hmmmm, a double update. that was . . . unexpected. Definitely appreciated though.

That is a relief.

Is it weird that I'm starting to feel slightly sorry for Germany? nothing seems to be going right for them, and I'm getting an uneasy feeling they are going to lash out at someone. not necessarily another country, maybe an 'uprising' internally? the 'little Corporal' promised a lot, and has so far failed to deliver much of anything other embarrassment on the European stage.

It is a bit weird feeling sorry for Germany I'm afraid. Certainly things are going worse than OTL, but from the public perspective things aren't that bad. The German economy still looks strong in terms of jobs and wages (the problems are still hidden), Versailles has been mostly repealed, the Rhineland is re-occupied (not re-militarised, but there is enough to keep the public happy). Hitler is doubtless frothing about the setbacks and is in a weaker political position, but we are still a long way from an uprising or any plots. Well beyond the normal assassination plots Hitler attracted in OTL.

However, the plot has moved forward. it seems Japan will be the main threat to the Empire (just as they were OTL. till '38 anyway) and Pippy seems to be positioning Britain to take America's place as their main antagoniser. would be interesting if the British ambassador to the Japanese court has picked up on any ill will directed towards him?

Plot is indeed developing. I'm sure nothing obvious has been directed at the ambassador, politeness remains vital, but the factions have not been subtle about their aims and the embassy staff can speak Japanese so are well aware of it. What they are less sure about is how strong the factions are, which is fair because nobody in the Japanese government is 100% certain either.

Our lord moves in mysterious ways. One day he refuses to post an update unless the top of the page is available, and will wait weeks if the top post is usurped by a malicious or inattentive reader, the next he post two within minutes of each-other.

Ahh but the two that were posted were both at the top of the page, so there remains some consistency to the mysteries of this gospel.

I was slightly disappointed by the lack of a pun in the title of appendix C (unless of course I'm not getting it...)

It was (possibly) a Mark Twain quote "Everything has its limit - iron ore cannot be educated into gold." Regardless of who said it I appreciate it on a technical level and as a welcome antidote to the more common "You can do anything if you just believe in yourself hard enough" motivational tosh.

The second title being a perfect example of that with the dries of ferrous puns:

I was deeply proud of that one. Excellent work on your own pun laden paragraph as well.

The plot moving forward is also a bit jarring, and it seems to be becoming a more frequent event in this AAR. Has @El Pip decided after 17 years to start rushing things a bit?
Really, it's a slippery slope. Ridiculous, unheard off. Out of the question is... The whole idea... It strikes at the roots of... it's the beginning of the end. The thin end of the weld... eh wedge. Where will it end, the abolition of mettalurgy... ehm the monarchy? Clearly we've got to give the current system a fair try before we start recklessly moving the plot forwards.

Rapid plot advancement would be a Bullfilterist solution

Anyhow. Seriously now. A lovely update with lots to learn, and all those little changes compared to OTL that you almost don't notice. Loving Goering cancelling that export deal to Japan. Real long term thinking here. Why are they in such a hurry to produce more steel to the point that the snub their trade partners? They aren't planning on going to war, are they? Really. Are they?

One conclusion could be that this means Germany isn't going to war anytime soon. After all it'll take 4 years to get any finished steel out and 5 years till volume production. Until that point the scheme is net steel negative for Germany, they will use more steel building the works and infrastructure than they get out. It would take till the mid 1940s for the works to produce more steel than was used to build them so would be a very bad decision for a nation that planned on going to war in the next few years.

This conclusion would of course be wrong as it completely over-estimated the consistency and planning competency of Nazi Germany, but it is one a more rational observer might draw.

As weekend came I finally found the time the read the update(s!!!). Iron and steel appendix was informative, I've finally found out why it's called "pig" iron. Did not expect connection to actual pigs.

I am delighted the appendix was indeed informative.

The real update was really good, one of my favorites from the last few (love Far East, tensions with Japan and industry and industrial policy). Also happy that events are putting Brits and Japan on collision course. Good for the readers (Battle of South China Sea!), good for keeping those pesky independence tendencies of Australia in line.

Who doesn't want to see Cunningham vs Yamamoto?

I'm going to have to reread the whole thing if there's any more plot movement soon. Or go searching for my summary of events a few dozen pages back...

Edit: hum...top of the page too. Should update it for the last 2 years of updates.

Fortunately this will not be a particularly long job, though I do of course remain appreciative of it.

Don't you just hate when a post goes up, and the forum declines to inform you? Harrumph...

This unreliability is the second worst feature of the forum software, behind the colour scheme and just ahead of the rounding of views and posts to the point of uselessness.

In other words the readership.

Well there are probably some who are indifferent to technical details. Densely perhaps. Le Jones maybe?

This is an interesting tidbit. Pretty much every game I've ever played which has some form of steelmaking operates on a 1:1 ratio of iron ore to coal, or worse a larger volume of coal than iron ore. Now, to be fair to games there is some fudging to be done about the term "volume", while I have no exact numbers on hand I would presume that coal being carbon-based is going to be far less dense than iron ores which are based on something heavier the name of which escapes me. However, it is still quite misleading and thus I am glad to see this majestic work addressing such grievous scientific oversights.

Someone has to do this vital work and I am glad such detail is appreciated.

I suspect a developing plot point here regarding an impending need for prodigious quantities of armor plating and thus a sudden and rapid conversion of industry to produce the preferred class of steel.

The Nazi self sufficiency plans require vast amount of structural steel for all their autarchy related factories and indeed the military related factories. Of course whether they follow said plans rather than get distracted by shiny tanks is another matter.

Or, in Nazi Germany, the blatant misuse of existing steel due to lack of general intellect within the political hierarchy.

I am reminded of the mid-war "Panzer Priority" orders, which disrupted things so much that other branches were allowed to use it in order to clear their bottlenecks (which has been caused by the Panzer Priority orders of the army). Hence you ended up with the Luftwaffe issuing "Panzer Priority" orders for aircraft engine parts and so on.

Further proof that, given the choice of methods for manufacturing, the one with "arc" in its name is always the coolest.

Indeed.

And now I see we have been treated to a rare double-header... props where they are due, the authAAR has correctly placed the appendix prior to the update in a rejection of frivolous modern practices which prefer the opposite.

It's much more useful there and I hope to inspire a return to this more useful structure.

Give it another few decades and the nitriding faction shall reign supreme!! ...this timeline, for sure!!

Just for you I shall endeavour to remember to include something on nitriding next time we have a reason to look at aero-engines.

One notes that the government intervention would not be necessary had the government not intervened.

This is very much the crux of the problem.

It is the tradition of the German nation to put great effort towards developing the science and engineering which will enable them to ignore such mundane things as economics, a tradition which one notes has yet to pay dividends.

The tragic thing is that so much effort is wasted on fixing idiotic design mistakes they are too proud to admit to. The entire career of Porsche springs to mind for instance.

Cute. Very cute.

I am delighted someone noticed.

Here we see once again that global economics is better for all involved when the British keep their noses out of it.

Just on economic grounds I feel that preferring the Japanese and their "hide all the deficits in a box and pretend it doesn't exist" approach is a bold call.

Yes, clearly, we now need a government intervention to undo the government intervention which solved the problems caused by the government intervention, thus necessitating a following government intervention to solve the problems created by the government intervention currently under consideration.

I see you are familiar with regional industrial redevelopment policy.

When party unity is threatened by base facts of nature, perhaps the party requires a period of brief restructuring and reconsideration of platforms.

You could argue that this is the voters fault for not liking the basic facts of nature, certainly it's an argument I have sympathy with.

Oh good, a cliffhanger, at least by Butterfly standards.

It is important to provide motivation for readers, something to help see them through the majestic gaps.

Bold of you to assume this work is in any way still connected to a game for the purposes of cause and effect, but this aside it is a work for HoI2, although a young person can be forgiven for forgetting the existence of that ancient game.

There are bits of the game scattered about still, but more in a vague and notional guideline sense than anything else.

One wonders if this is more of a Far Eastern thing, given the similarities with Japanese warrior culture and the earnest belief that the spirit of their soldiers counted for more than the inadequacy and obsoleteness of their weaponry.

I did consider looking into this. But then I encountered sentences likes this;
but it is a rather oblique discourse indeed that will consider Mao’s dialectical materialism as a form of a reification of the liberal humanist subject; in fact, it would appear that such a claim is corrupt at the outset for those familiar with the intricate operations and nuances of dialectical materialism as it is grounded in Marx and in other post-Hegelian schools
This led to a series of flashbacks to Slovak critical social realist poetry and I decided to leave the entire subject well alone.

To be fair to El Pip, after so many years of advancing the plot minimally if at all, finally most of the pieces may be in place to actually roll the plot forward in a largely unforced fashion, an enviable state for a work of fiction to find itself in and one which modern Hollywood and TV writers could stand to take notes from.

Obviously these words are appreciated, not least for their accuracy in describing the situation.

Chemically speaking, the ratio isn't so bad. But in terms of industry, you need a lot of coal to get the temperature up and then more iron ore to the mixture itself.

The numbers quoted are generally for the charge in the blast furnace. ~700kg of coking coal, 1.5t ore (assuming high grade at say 67% Fe) will give you 1 t of steel with ~1930s/50s tech. You can tweak those numbers a great deal by playing around with ore grade and how much scrap you add, but it's that sort of ballpark. There is a huge amount of recycling of heat and exhaust gases around the works and the aim is always continuous operation to minimise heat loss, so there is some fuel use in heating up the air charge you blast in but it''s incredibly site specific.

A lot of people say the nazis would have been worse if not for Hitler. But given how everyone else in the high circle was deeply unpopular, a drug addict or a complete pyscho, I'm not sure they would have been...

They'd have been different certainly, no-one else would take quite the same gambles (for better and worse) as Hitler.

That said Goering is probably the only one who could plausibly have taken over and survived in office for more than a few weeks/days/hours. Pretty much anyone else and it's civil war in some configuration.

They probably could have done better in making nice with the British OTL, as they may well have gotten away with all sorts of mischief before inevitably bering declared war on.

Nah. Even the British Foreign Office didn't think appeasing Japan was a good idea, though mostly because they realised there was nothing that Japan could want that the British would be prepared to let them have.

I suppose I should play it at some point. Though you may not like the results if I write what happens as straight as I did with HOI4...

It could not possibly be worse than HoI4, of this I am certain. HoI2 hails from the era where Paradox's greatest sins were a lack of research and making things too easy for Germany, grievous sins to be sure but a far cry from the current muck and mire which is better termed Preferred Extremist/Nationalist Ideology Simulator.

The worst thing is that they are still committing the old sins in HOI4, it's just their new sins are so much worse they tend to grab most of the attention.

Here in the Pipverse strange things come to pass. Rumor has it that Pip has received fan mail from Entish folks, extolling the virtues of the work but requesting that the pace be picked up a bit.

I now have a desire to get this work translated into Entish, or failing that Elvish, and add on another few dozen appendices. What could go wrong?

Are you continuing with the Industrial updates next Pip? or can we expect something further afield?

I am torn on this one. There is another industrial adjacent update scheduled to happen, but there is also a chapter of tangentially related tech-porn based on trying to turn a single poster into a full chapter. So it could go either way.