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Chapter XL: A Battle of Nerves.
  • Chapter XL: A Battle of Nerves.

    German planning for the re-occupation was typically thorough, the operation carefully timed so as to minimise the chances of anyone finding out before the late on Friday evening. This delay, combined with the tendency of civil servants to not work weekends, would, it was hoped, present the world with a fait accompli on Monday morning and allow cooler heads to prevail. While such a plan may have worked under normal circumstances the situation in Europe was far from normal; even though peace negotiations had begun Britain was still at war and the French military on heightened alert making neither government disposed to stopping for the weekend.

    The German plans began to unravel early in the day when the advancing re-occupation force was spotted by an Armée de l'Air ANF Les Mureaux 115 reconnaissance plane on 'High Alert' patrol. The 'High Alert' plans, which had been activated following the mobilisation, implicitly assumed Germany would either be the cause of the mobilisation or would attempt to take advantage of the situation that had caused the mobilisation and so required regular aerial patrols along the Franco-German border. While the pilots and ground staff had soon realised there was no 'High Alert' along their part of the border the patrols were taken very seriously, partly because 'real' missions, regardless of actual importance, were much preferred to training exercises and partly as the patrols had become a competition to see who could bring back the best, and most intrusive, photographs. As a double blow to the Germans the chain of command to transmit the photos and information had already been established and tested under the same 'High Alert' orders, meaning there was no delay in the alert reaching the French Minister of War, Jean Fabry.

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    The ANF Les Mureaux 115, an adaption of the older 113 it had only entered squadron service in mid-1935, but in less than a year it had established itself as the Armée de l'Air's premier reconnaissance aircraft.

    On the orders of the French cabinet the Armée de l'Air despatched additional 115s to confirm the initial sighting and provide additional information on numbers and possible intent. As the reports flowed back to Paris it soon became apparent to the French military the Germans troops were not on an offensive; the forced lacked tanks, artillery or heavy equipment and was moving very slowly, pausing in towns to be mobbed by civilians and raise flags. As the military worked to clarify the situation the men of the Quai d'Orsay worked to inform and consult Allies and neighbours while attempting to ascertain their position, the results of which were not encouraging. The Belgian government, while expressing it's displeasure at the re-occupation, indicated it's reluctance to actually do anything to oppose it. The United States' ambassador confessed his country was almost exclusively focused on internal matters, the various national conventions for the Presidential elections being less than two months away. Bluntly President Garner's administration was concerned with shoring up the former Vice-President's reputation and could see neither votes nor compelling reasons to involve itself in a 'European matter'. The news was, however, not all bad; the Polish government indicated it would honour the Franco-Polish alliance even though it was not, strictly, required to while the Czech government made a similar, if less enthusiastic, commitment to uphold the Franco-Czech alliance.

    As important as those counties stance was the key reaction, in the mind of many both in and out of the French Cabinet, was that of Britain. While many of the popular stories about the British reply are untrue, for instance the Foreign Office's response to the French request for aid was not to return the telegram France had sent when Britain had asked for aid over Abyssinia, the general gist is generally correct. Quite aside from the disappointment, and anger in many cases, felt at France's failure to support Britain over Abyssinia the issue was far less important to Britain than France. The island dwelling British could never truly understand the visceral fear a shared border could sometimes induce, the wars of the British Empire had been fought on foreign fields, as terrible as the horrors of the Great War had been they had almost all happened 'somewhere else'. For all that the Foreign Office was keen to rebuild Anglo-French relations and there was no serious will in the government to needlessly alienate France. Moreover with the bulk of the Army and RAF in North Africa, and the French in no need of naval assistance, the offered support could honestly be limited to diplomatic backing and co-operation with any economic sanctions, balancing the desire not to cause offence with avoiding British commitment to a possible conflict.

    The French cabinet, acutely aware the longer the Germans remained in the Rhineland unchallenged the more chance they would stay, had split between those who favoured military action to remove the Germans, those seeking a diplomatic solution and those urging acceptance of the new status quo. The leading lights of the 'acceptance' group were General Gamelin and the French General Staff, reluctant to risk another war by directly confronting the occupation force and unwilling to see France humiliated by grand posturing only to back down later they seized upon the luke-warm response of many Allies to urge a League of Nation authored face saving statement. In the middle ground stood Foreign Minister Pierre Flandin and his right-wing Alliance Républicaine Démocratique, while they appreciated the advantages of the Rhineland 'buffer' they felt it was not worth risking war over, yet they wanted France to oppose the re-occupation. As such Flandin wanted to call in the British offer of help and use economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure to force a German climb down, hoping to achieve France's aims while humiliating Germany. The action group was headed by Prime Minister Sarraut and his Minister of War Louis Maurin, for this group the reoccupation was a clear threat that had to be countered with force. Maurin more than most knew the strategic advantage that a demilitarised Rhineland offered to France; in the event of a crisis Frances could occupy Germany's industrial heartland without firing a shot, providing a powerful hold over any German government. Losing this would tilt the long term advantage back in favour of Germany with it's larger population and stronger economy. It was, however, Sarraut who swung the meeting, first by assessing that the risks of inaction far outweighed the risks of action and then by appealing to the patriotism of the cabinet by declaring "We shall not permit Strasbourg to remain within range of German guns."

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    The venerable Renault FT-17 was once more called into service, leading the French advance into the Rhineland.

    On such phrases does the world turn, ordered by the cabinet the French military sent a mixed force of FT-17s and infantry from the 2ème Division Cuirassée de Réserve to confront the advancing Germans. As the troops left their billets the French Foreign Ministry urgently summoned the German ambassador to explain what was going to happen while ordering their man in Berlin to send the same message directly to the Reich Foreign Ministry. As this news filtered down through the German hierarchy the tensions between the government and the military, which had been bubbling beneath the surface ever since the AGNA talks collapsed, exploded. Seeing their worst fears come true the War Minister von Blomberg and the head of the army von Fritsch had met and agreed to unilaterally pull the troops out. When Hitler heard he flew into a towering rage, accusing all nearby of betrayal, treason and incompetence, stretching the already strained relationship between the state and it's generals to breaking point. While the short term row was defused, the generals merely cited Hitler's earlier orders to withdraw if the French crossed the border, the damage had been done and the seeds of later conflict sown.

    As Monday the 27th dawned it was clear France had won a tactical victory, the Rhineland was once more free of German troops. Solving that problem had, however, left them with a new problem; French troops were once more marching on German soil with their only legal justification being upholding an already much breached, and widely regarded as unfair, peace treaty. Yet for the French cabinet such concerns were for the future, in the short term the move proved wildly popular, propelling both Sarraut's Socialist Radicalis and Flandin's ARD into a substantial lead in the polls, convincing Sarraut to break with Leon Blum's Popular Front and run alone, dealing the centre-left a crippling blow.

    To conclude this section it is worth mentioning the great controversy over Prime Minister Sarrauts action, mainly from historians of a revisionist bent but also by more serious scholars. Although their are countless variations the essential argument contends that a more 'moderate line', polite code for appeasement and giving in to aggression, towards Germany would have prevented the later conflicts that raged across Europe. While it is undoubtedly true that Germany in general, and Hitler's leadership in particular, was left bruised and humiliated by the first few months of 1936 to contend that this was the sole reason for the later aggression is a supreme folly and displays a terrible naivety and wilful blindness. The most accurate, and damning, appraisal of taking a 'moderate line' against aggression remains that of Churchill; "Deterring aggression by appeasement is the same as trying to fend of a hungry bear by throwing meat at it, not only do you still have to fight the bear when you run out of meat but it will have grown all the stronger on all the meat you have fed it."


    Up Next; The fallout and the consequences. Also a return to the murky world of Westminster politics.
     
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    Chapter XLI: Return to the Bear Pit.
  • Chapter XLI: Return to the Bear Pit.

    As peace and calm, on the surface at least, returned to Europe and South Africa Westminster's attention turned sharply to the new Prime Minister Austen Chamberlain and the members of his first cabinet. In all the turbulence of the weeks since his elevation to the premiership Chamberlain had, legitimately, avoided the issue of domestic government, concentrating instead on the more urgent events across the globe. As the global situation returned to a more even keel Chamberlain was finally able to divert his attention to the make up of his cabinet and the many groups within the party that had to be placated. The key interest groups were the 'Old Guard' grouped around former Prime Minister Baldwin and the traditional right wing of the party headed by the still much respected Neville Chamberlain. Into this mix could be thrown the group around Churchill, a diverse mix held together by similar views on defence and foreign policy and a common respect and loyalty to the man himself.

    To try and find a balance Chamberlain was able to call on several advantages, firstly as the named successor to Churchill he could count on considerable lee-way from that group, at least over the short term. Secondly his personal stock was high, already a respected figure pre-war he had benefited from the success of the war and, more personally, from the governments rapid response to the South African affair where the Foreign Office had worked hard to both solve the problem and keep the Dominions on side. His final advantage was the self preservation instincts of his fellow MPs, having just changed leader the party would be reluctant to change again soon for fear of appearing weak, indecisive and divided to the electorate. Thus, barring a monumental crisis, he was guaranteed a long run as leader making public opposition to him a career threatening move for any who dared try. Noticeable by their absence from that list are Sir John Simon's National Liberals, a group Chamberlain had little time for partly due to his poor relationship with the notoriously hard to like Sir John and partly due to the undue influence he felt they had given their small number of MPs. In a strong position and with many, more important, groups to keep happy the National Liberals would be the big losers in Chamberlain's cabinet reshuffle, an outcome that would not go un-noticed by the other parties at Westminster.

    Beginning at the Treasury Chamberlain folded the Ministry of Production and Development back into the Exchequer, although he made sure the team assembled by Beaverbrook was kept intact and in senior roles to continue their work. Although mainly a cosmetic change, the programmes started by Lord Keynes and Sir Walter Jones were not only to continue but were scheduled for expansion, the 'beefing up' of the Chancellor's powers was popular with the traditionalist Neville Chamberlain group, worried as they were about reckless spending and a lack of checks to the Prime Minister's powers. For Chancellor Chamberlain choose Leo Amery, his excellent record at the Ministry of Defence Co-ordination, particularly the expedited Swordfish production and delivery which had proved so vital at Taranto, had propelled him up the list of candidates, although his devotion to Empire Free Trade and Imperial preference were doubtlessly also significant factors given Chamberlain's own passion for those policies. The former chancellor, Leslie Hore-Belisha, was appointed Lord Privy Seal, one of the two sinecured 'Minister without Portfolio' positions in the Prime Ministers gift.While a significant demotion, which many blamed on his support for King Edward VIII during the abdication crisis, it was a sign of Chamberlain's respect for the man's abilities as it was a cabinet level post that kept him close to the heart of government.

    Descending through the Great Offices of State the Foreign Office, previously Chamberlain's own office, was a cause of considerable consternation. The international scene was clearly still delicate and required experienced hands, yet the last two occupants of the office were ruled out through politics (Chamberlain refused to give Sir John Simon the role) and appeasement (Sir Samuel Hoare was still too tainted by Hoare-Laval to even consider). The most qualified acceptable candidate was the former Under-Secretary of State Anthony Eden, on the strength of his years in that office and opposition to Hoare-Laval while there. The Home Office stayed in the hands of Sir John Simon, Chamberlain recognising he couldn't completely alienate the entire National Liberal party and that any transfer of Sir John would be, in practical terms, a demotion as the other Great Offices had all been filled. From a more neutral perspective it must also be said Sir John had done a solid, if not spectacular, job at the Home Office and there was no desperate practical need for a shake up of that department.

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    Anthony Eden, the former Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs would be thrust into the limelight by the peace negotiations with Italy at the Valletta Peace conference.

    The appointments to the service ministries very much reflected the different needs and status' of the services at the time. At the Admiralty it was clear that the First Sea Lord, Sir Roger Keyes, was very much in charge and would resist efforts at undue political influence and would attempt to keep the post-war review in-house. As Chamberlain had witnessed during the Great War with Fisher and Churchill it was not wise to put two strong personalities in one department so, given his faith in the First Sea Lord and his experience in the House of Lords, kept the relative light weight of Viscount Monsell as First Lord of the Admiralty, with explicit instructions that Keyes was to be given his head to run the Navy. The War Office was somewhat down the pecking order, the Army lacking the connections and political clout of the Royal Navy, and moreover was more riven with internal arguments and debates over the future. It was however realised, even by the non-military political classes, that the Abyssinian war had been significantly different from the Great War and the result of such arguments could be vital to Britain's future. Realising it was important for the 'Baldwinites' to have some representation in the cabinet, and in fairness due to his own abilities and record as a junior minister, Alfred 'Duff' Cooper was plucked from the Treasury and promoted to Secretary of State for War. As the holder of a DSO from service on the Western Front with the Grenadier Guards his background would gain him some respect from the military but his first instruction was to arrange for the post-war review to be conducted outside of the Imperial General Staff to try and obtain some objectivity. Very much bottom of the pile was the Air Ministry and the Royal Air Force who, in contrast to the other services, were just desperate for a review to be carried out by someone, in-house or not. With a limited offensive contribution to the war, it is arguable the Fleet Air Arm and Royal Australian Air Force had a larger impact than the entire RAF (bar Bomber Command's raid on Rome), the Air Board was facing an uphill battle in the next funding review, a review that would be vital if the RAF was to fully leave behind biplanes and become a modern service. For this unique challenge Chamberlain knew there could only be one choice; Winston Churchill. A passionate advocate of the need to modernise and re-arm the air force and a man of limitless energy, on subjects that interested him anyway, his dynamism and political clout was exactly what the Air Ministry needed.

    Among the other appointments Neville Chamberlain installation as Lord President of the Council stands out, the post was a recognition of his standing within the party but also that he needed time out of the limelight to complete his political rehabilitation. While Lord President Neville would conduct a thorough review of the economic impact of the war, the seminal 'Chamberlain Report', another gesture to the fiscally conservative right of the party worried about the economy. The appointment of Baron Lloyd as Secretary of State for India was a very apt choice, given he was instrumental in the failure of the Government of India Act the previous year which had left government policy over India in tatters. Quite aside from reaping what he had sown Baron Lloyd would also have to grapple with the 'Empire building' of Dehli as the Raj tried to extend its influence into newly conquered East Africa and the Middle East client states that the Foreign Office considered it's own territory. The cabinet also marked the return of Samuel Hoare to government, although in a greatly reduced capacity as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, as he too began his political rehabilitation. Hoare's return, although humble, was in stark contrast to the complete snub of Stanley Baldwin who's position in the party fell accordingly. It is also interesting to note the first ministerial post of future Prime Minister Harold Macmillian, taking over as Minister for Co-ordination of Defence. While not as important as it had been under Churchill, Amery at the Treasury would be keeping a close eye on his former department, he would still have to work very closely with both the service ministry and the treasury to rush out initial defence estimates for the upcoming budget.

    • Prime Minister and Leader of the House of Commons - Austen Chamberlain (Con)
    • Lord Chancellor and Leader of the House of Lords - Viscount Hailsham (Con)
    • Lord President of the Council - Neville Chamberlain (Con)
    • Lord Privy Seal - Leslie Hore-Belisha (Nat Lib)
    • Chancellor of the Exchequer - Leo Amery (Con)
    • Home Secretary - Sir John Simon (Nat Lib)
    • Foreign Secretary - Anthony Eden (Con)
    • Colonial Secretary - William Ormsby-Gore (Con)
    • Dominions Secretary - Lord De La Warr (Nat Lab)
    • Secretary for War - Alfred Duff Cooper (Con)
    • First Lord of the Admiralty - Viscount Monsell (Con)
    • Secretary of State for Air - Winston Churchill (Con)
    • Secretary of State for India - Baron Lloyd (Con)
    • Minister for Co-ordination of Defence - Harold Macmillian (Con)
    • Secretary of State for Scotland - Walter Elliot (Con)
    • President of the Board of Trade - Walter Runciman (Nat Lib)
    • President of the Board of Education - Lord Halifax (Con)
    • Minister of Agriculture - William Morrison (Con)
    • Minister of Labour - Oliver Stanley (Con)
    • Minister of Health - Ernest Brown (Nat Lib)
    • First Commissioner of Works - James Stanhope (Con)
    • Attorney General - Thomas Inskip (Con)
    • Duchy Lancaster - Samuel Hoare (Con)

    Chamberlain was not the only person shaking up his party, the following weeks and months would see the the French legislative elections, the US National Conventions to elect presidential candidates and major changes to both the German and Japanese governments. Meanwhile in Britain what began as one of the Labour Party's regular post-election bloodbaths would become a far more serious battle for the very heart and soul of the party. Before all that there was the little matter of the budget and the Valletta Peace Conference with Italy.
     
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    Chapter XLII: Peace Is More Than The Absence of War.
  • Chapter XLII: Peace Is More Than The Absence of War.

    The Valletta Peace Conference can be summed up an attempt by the Foreign Office to do the impossible; achieve Britain's war aims without giving the Italians' cause or justification for seeking revenge. Quite apart from the obvious problem with that objective, if you take something away from someone they are going to want it back, Italy had established a reputation as notoriously hard to placate even in victory. Objectively Italy had emerged from the Great War in the strongest position of all the European Allies; despite battles with names such as 12th Isonzo casualties, both total and as a proportion of population, had been far lower than either Britain or France and, as such, she had avoided both the 'hollow' classes of France and the trauma of the 'Pals' battalion losses suffered by Britain. Moreover, unlike France, Italy's age old enemy, Austria-Hungary, had been broken up with Austria herself falling in the Italian sphere of influence, not to mention the annexation from much of "unredeemed Italy" from the dismembered empire. Despite all this many post-war politicians referred to the 'mutilated victory' and focused heavily on the Allied 'betrayal' over promises about the fate of the Dalmatia coast and lack of support over the annexation of Fiume. With such a reaction to a victorious treaty it is clear that nothing but the most accommodating of treaties would be well accepted, especially as the Italian mainland had not been occupied.

    Such a peace deal was, however, never going to be offered by Britain and the Dominions, regardless of their own aims and ambitions there was the memory of Georges Clemenceau, thrown out by the French public for 'being soft' on Germany at Versailles, always lurking in the minds of the political leadership. Moreover, while the war may have been stalemated it was a stalemate in the Empire's favour, Italian North Africa was occupied, the forces in Italian East Africa would soon be starved out, Rhodes and the Dodecanese had fallen to amphibious assault and the Regia Marina had been decisively smashed. In the longer term the decisive population, economic and industrial advantages all lay with the British Empire, something both sides were keenly aware of.

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    The Royal Navy presence in Valletta harbour was deliberately stepped up during the peace talks, the Foreign Office requesting a striking visual reminder to the Italian delegation of where the balance of power lay. HMS Barham and HMS Eagle proved more than equal to that task.

    Although the formal peace talks only began at the beginning of May, for the Foreign Office preliminary talks had started the moment the cease-fire was agreed. However these talks were not with Italy, but with the Dominion representatives and other government departments over what to demand and what to concede at the negotiating table. It was agreed by all that the peace should not include a war guilt clause and should be a 'once and forever' treaty with no lingering commitments or future changes, both seen as critical mistakes in the framing of Versailles which allowed resentment to fester for years after the treaty. While this went against the earlier Australian demand for an imposed moratorium on post-war Italian battleship production it was recognised that banning Italy from publicly rebuilding her fleet would only motivate her to do in secret. However the Australians did request compensation for dropping that aim; a demand for the remaining heavy units of the Italian fleet to be transferred to Empire control, doubtless hoping they would eventually make their way to the Royal Australian Navy. It was also agreed to leave negotiations about what happened to territory acquired from Italy until after Valletta, thus bypassing the row between the Indian Office and the Foreign Office over direct occupation vs League of Nations mandate vs client state. This led to the decision that rather than peace and de-militarisation for East Africa the Empire should demand the annexation of Eritrea and Italian Somaliland, not so much for the negligible value of the territorial gain but to remove the Italian threat to one end of the Red Sea and as part of the drive to avoid imposing long term conditions. This left the revised peace aims as;

    • Annexation of Italian North Africa, Italian Somaliland, Eritrea and the islands of Rhodes and Dodecanese.
    • The transfer of remaining heavy units of the Regia Marina as reparations.
    As would be expected these aims did not go down at all well with the Italian government; the territorial terms were little more than a recognition of the military situation but meant the end of Italy as a colonial empire. While the Italian Empire was, by some margin, the least respected in Europe, it was widely ridiculed as consisting of little but sand and angry natives, it nevertheless an empire, one of the pre-requisites to Great Power status and publicly touted as Italy's pass to the top table of international diplomacy. Privately, however, it was recognised by much of the Italian elite that in practical terms the Empire was more trouble than it was worth, having neither the valuable resources of the Belgian Congo or the Dutch East Indies or the globe spanning positions of the Portuguese possessions. Their one possible trump card, the threat to the British link to India through the bases in Eritrea and Italian North Africa, had been discredited during the war; 'strategic' harbours were useless without a powerful navy to use them, something Italy now comprehensibly lacked.

    For all that there were still voices arguing for a continuation of the war, mainly Il Duce and the die-hard elements of the government, but significantly the 'Quadrumvirs', the men who had lead the March on Rome while Il Duce had stayed behind in Milan, wanted peace. That group, Marshal of Italy Emilio de Bono, Marshal of the Air Italo Balbo and Governor-General Cesare de Vecchi, could call upon wide support from the armed services and the wider Fascist movement and, despite having been isolated by Mussolini and sent to distant postings, were a powerful force on the Grand Fascist Council. Uniting behind Marshal Balbo, who as an Anglophile had never been keen on the war, the group had ignored Mussolini's orders and returned to Rome to ensure the Grand Fascist Council sued for peace. Il Duce, faced with such an array of opposition on his own Grand Council, not to mention the harsh reality that even if Italy did fight on there was no possibility of regaining her lost possessions, only the risk of seeing Sardinia, Sicily or even the mainland invaded, bowed to the inevitable and conceded the the end of his 'New Roman Empire'.

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    Peace in our time? The Treaty of Valletta, while not as harsh as Versailles, was not a lenient peace and has been blamed by many for the later turbulence throughout the Mediterranean. Yet Italy had started the war and, through her widespread use of mustard gas against Abyssinian forces, breached her commitments under the Geneva Protocol. If Italy had not of been punished in some way for such actions what message would that of sent? Which dictators would have taken such leniency as a green light to take similar actions, knowing the consequences of failure would be benign?

    In comparison to the territorial negotiations the talks about the fleet reparations were far smoother thanks, in part, to some cunning negotiating tactics from the Foreign Office. It was realised that insisting on the vessels would only make the Italian delegation dig their heels in and, more seriously, act as an impetus for post-war naval re-armament. The solution therefore was to make a demand for a vast sum of reparations, a thousand million Lira, in cash and then, under Italian 'pressure', fall back to accepting a lesser sum in kind. The master stoke was letting the Italians use the vessels 'purchase price', i.e. the cost when new, and not their actual value, which was far lower after years of service and battle damage. Thus the Italian delegation was able to report a double success, driving a hard bargain by reducing the value of reparations to a notional 700 million Lira and paying that off with vessels worth a fraction of that, while the British delegation left with what they wanted in the first place. It is a mark of the success of this ploy that the reparations section of the negotiations escaped the charges of 'unfairly onerous' and 'an insult' that were levelled at the territorial clauses.

    The reaction to the treaty was, unsurprisingly, most intense around the Mediterranean where the balance of power had fundamentally altered, much to the advantage of most of the nations affected. This was not always reflected in the public reactions however, the former Italian Empire had been coveted by various nations; Greece saw Rhodes and the Dodecanese as a natural part of her archipelago, France saw Libya as a way to extend her influence into the central Mediterranean and could see in Italian Somaliland/Eritrea a key to influence over the Red Sea and an Indian Ocean port en-route to Indo-China. The British success therefore strengthened the hand of the 'hawk' lobbies of those nations who had argued for joining the war, precisely to gain such spoils. However, as an ironic corollary, it weakened the re-armament arguments made by the same people, with the Regia Marina sunk and much of the Regia Aeronautica destroyed on the ground in North Africa or lost when East Africa surrendered Italy was no longer such a threat. Dealing with those nations less pleased with the outcome Austria and Albania stand out, as part of Italy's 'sphere of influence' their fate was tied to that of Rome; Albania feared greater interference from an Italy anxious to re-assert itself while Austria saw only the weakening of her strongest bulwarks against a forced 'Anschluss' with Germany. Such a conclusion had also been reached in Germany herself, the Foreign Ministry seeing the possibility of turning the defeat of a fellow fascist state to the Reich's advantage. It is also worth noting the muted reaction from the Popular Front government in Spain, unaware of how close Italy had come to supporting an army coup the peace treaty was not considered important news in Spain, particularly given the rising internal problems after the elections, the same problems that had driven the armed forces to the point of rebellion.

    To deal with the remaining Great Powers, the news was greeted with concern in the Soviet Union, while capitalists fighting fascists was notionally good news the British victory was considered a sign the West was not as decadent and cowardly as previously hoped. In the United States the defeat of Italy was not big news, competing as it was against the run up to convention season and the prospect of the first genuine three horse race for the Presidency since Theodore Roosevelt's run for the Progressive Party in 1912. The Japanese reaction was mainly internal, publicly the government said little beyond acknowledging the facts. In private however the peace deal became another strand to the epic policy debate at the heart of the military leadership, a debate that had started after the aborted London Naval Treaty talks. The spark for the debate had been the exposure of the extreme weakness of the US, the discovery she had not built to her tonnage limits had confirmed the reports about the dire straits of the US economy. This was contrasted against the surprising strength of the British, the victories of the Royal Navy had forced a reappraisal of the threat she posed to Japan, particularly in light of the expected re-deployment of forces from the Mediterranean to the Pacific. While staff officers poured over the operational lessons to be learned the highest echelons were in turmoil as the various factions assimilated the new situation and how it affected their plans to lead Japan, and themselves, to greatness.

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    The state of post-war North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.
     
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    Chapter XLIII: If You Seek Peace, Prepare for War.
  • Chapter XLIII: If You Seek Peace, Prepare for War.

    The first domestic challenge for Chamberlain's new government was the Budget, for our purposes we need only focus on the twin problems of defence spending and economic growth, save to mention that these were not the only areas occupying Chamberlain's mind, the Prime Minister was keen to re-assert his authority over domestic areas that had been neglected under Churchill's premiership.

    The unexpectedness of war, combined with Britain's rapid success, had left defence spending in something of a mess; British industry was just getting into it's stride when the Italian's sued for peace, overnight making a great deal of the orders placed in anticipation of a long war unnecessary or at least less urgent. There was also the issue of the shadow factories, having rapidly been worked up to full production no-one was quite sure what they should produce or if they should even be kept open. This debate was further complicated by the calls from many to slow down or even halt re-armament, citing the rapid and comprehensive success as proof. With such calls not just from such predictable sources as Lord Halifax's peace faction and Neville Chamberlain's fiscal conservatives but also from those, such as Health Secretary Ernest Brown, who wished to increase their own department's budget.

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    Minister for Labour Oliver Stanley, one of the many new cabinet ministers not convinced of the need to up the pace of re-armament.

    To deal with such views it was arranged for the service chiefs to present a short history of the war, to explain to those who had been outside the War Cabinet just how much of a close run thing it had been. The revelation of the paucity of Britain's home defences during the war; three newly raised divisions, no modern monoplane fighters and only a single carrier and four 'R' class battleships in the Home Fleet shocked many, as did the news of the ransacking of India's defences to bolster the Expeditionary Forces. For all that the necessity of re-armament was still in doubt until intervention from an unexpected sources; the Treasury special adviser John Maynard Keynes. Although brought into the cabinet for economic advice on funding and extending the 'Keynes programme' of investment and public works Keynes weighed into the debate arguing the moral, not economic, case for continuing with the orders. While the large industrial concerns would have undoubtedly survived the cancellation of the orders countless smaller firms would not, many of them had responded to urgent requests from the Service Ministries or the Ministry Defence Co-ordination and performed miracles in beating seemingly impossible deadlines, but at the cost of desperately over-stretching themselves financially. For Keynes the economic case to intervene, to prevent the immense damage such bankruptcies would cause, was secondary to the government's moral obligation to support those who had answered their countries call without regard for consequence. As there was little doubt the prompt delivery of supplies and new weapons had saved British lives, Keynes argued the very least the government could do was to ensure the firms who made that possible did not go bankrupt.

    Whether it was that impassioned plea or the cold hard financial and military facts that convinced the cabinet depends very much on your view of the politicians involved, in public of course the argument was tailored to the audience. Regardless the move was generally popular in the country and helped the government meet it's manifesto commitments on re-armament, a not insignificant point at a time when manifesto commitments still meant something to both politicians and the voting public. That said it is worth noting that one of the last acts of the Lansdown led Labour opposition was to castigate the 'warmongering so-called national government' for 'bankrupting the country with unneeded aggressive rearmament' during the Opposition response to the budget, indicating the plan was not universally welcomed and highlighting the entrenched pacifism of much of Lansdown's shadow cabinet.

    With the need to increase the budget agreed the first priority of the defence estimates was to 'top up' the defence budgets to cover those costs, such as the prioritised work on the Fairey Swordfish and the accelerated Hurricane development programme, that had not been covered by Treasury Reserve Funds. The 'top up' also covered the increases costs incurred by the expansion of the Regular Army, which had left the War Office without enough budget to actually pay all of its troops for the entire year. The budget for the next round of expansion, however, proved far more difficult to agree, not for a lack of spending plans from the Service Ministries, any General Staff worth it's salt always had expansion plans on hand, but because all such plans did not include the lessons of the Abyssinian War or the post-war strategic situation. While the service chiefs agreed with the wisdom of waiting to make more informed procurement decisions, they were also keen to strike while the iron was hot, bitter experience teaching them that defence projects delayed were often defence projects cancelled. As a compromise it was agreed to authorise the most urgently required and least likely to be altered items immediately, along with committing funds to a variety of research and development projects. The balance of the expenditure would be held back until the autumn when the 1937 Programme would be drawn up, based on the results of the various reviews and development projects.

    Revised 1936 Defence Programme
    Naval Estimate

    Ark Royal class Aircraft Carriers
    HMS Ark Royal
    HMS Bulwark

    Arethusa class Light Cruisers
    HMS Penelope
    HMS Aurora

    'Post War Standard' Destroyers
    Completion of existing nine 'H' Class vessels
    Laying down of nine follow-up 'I' Class vessels

    Funding for expedited revision of 'Ark Royal' class design to incorporate lessons learnt into existing hulls

    Design study into updating 'King George V' class battleship design to remove treaty limitations.

    Detailed design of 'Town' class cruisers and 'Tribal' class destroyers to be completed

    Army Estimate

    Establishment of permanent Expeditionary Force HQ and supporting units

    Raising of six Infantry Division for assignment to Expeditionary Force

    Formation of Experimental Mobile Division at Aldershot

    Air Estimate

    Volume production of Hawker Hurricane to replace existing front-line biplane fighters in RAF service.

    Upgrading of Acoustic Location Mirror system to Watson-Watt pattern RADAR, the new stations to be part of the 'Dowding System' integrated aerial defence plan.

    Urgent assessments and test flights of issued Air Ministry specifications with the aim of the complete removal of biplanes from RAF service


    Starting with the easiest first, the Army's estimate was a simple reaction to the war and the acute shortage of available troops. That this was the case is unsurprising, for peace time Chancellors seeking to cut expenditure the military is always a tempting target and the reserve forces an almost irresistible one. Thus the fierce 'Geddes Axe' of the 1920s had hit the Territorial Army disproportionately hard, the 2nd Line units were disbanded on mass while the 1st Line and Yeomanry units were decimated, depriving the Regular Army of the ready pool of troops needed for rapid expansion. This deficiency was dramatically demonstrated at the start of the war, when the raiding of Territorial Army units produced barely enough men for three divisions, the 4th, 6th and 9th 'Highland'. Seizing on this the Imperial General Staff successfully lobbied for the recreation of a permanent Expeditionary Force, modelled upon the pre-Great War British Expeditionary Force setup under the Haldane Reforms. This would set the pattern for Army development over the following months and years, the emphasis being as much on the re-discovery and adaptation of old ideas as the development of brand new concepts. This was also the thinking behind the Experimental Mobile Division, a concerted attempt to re-create the Experimental Mechanised Force that had been scrapped on budgetary grounds in the late 1920s. The new division would not be a slavish copy however, but was an attempt to combine all the various work on mechanisation and motorisation into one project, using the latest technology and on a large scale. The Division would itself become a battleground between the various army factions, not only between modernisers and reactionaries but between those with different ideas about how to modernise.

    In contrast to the Army's attempt to re-learn past lessons the Royal Air Force, with Churchill very much in the driving seat at the Air Ministry, was charging at break neck speed towards the future. The most pressing problem for the RAF was what to spend their new found wealth on, following the decision that keeping the 'Shadow Factories' open was good for the economy all the services were under pressure to utilise this capacity rather than have it stand idle or producing obsolete spares and supplies. This was a particular problem for the Air Staff as the Treasury had severely restricted the number of specifications they could issue in the early 1930s, the restriction only easing in late 1934. Given the typical lead time of peacetime aircraft development these specifications were only just beginning to progress to prototype stage, worse Churchill had cancelled a whole swathe of orders, the Gloster Gladiator and the army co-operation Hawker Hector being the most prominent, as he had determined the RAF would buy no more biplanes. Given the rapid rate of development he was probably correct to do so, the cancelled aircraft would never have seen front-line service except, perhaps, in the outer reaches of the Empire, certainly not against first rate opponents. The decision did however leave a gaping hole in the 'pipeline' of new developments, one that urgently needed filling to keep the factories busy. In the short term the go ahead for the Hawker Hurricane, combine with the existing Handley Page Hampden and Fleet Air Arm orders, would be just about enough leaving Britain's aircraft manufacturers working flat out over the summer to complete and test their prototypes in time for the autumn deadline.

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    The so called 'Reparations Fleet', the Italian cruisers surrendered by the Regia Marina into Royal Navy possession. Initially based in Alexandria the fleet would be transferred to Rosyth for in depth study and refitting to British standards.

    The Royal Navy's Estimate appears relatively conservative at first glance, the Arethusa class was a proven design while the 'I' class destroyers were only a slightly evolution of the 'H's already on the slipway. The Estimate also pushed back most of the large scale decisions, the King George V class battleships and the new generation of light cruisers and destroyers would all be re-designed over the summer. The exceptions to this conservatism were the continuing of work on HMS Ark Royal and the laying down of her sister ship HMS Bulwark, both highly controversial moves when combined with the decision to re-design the basic design. That new aircraft carriers was needed was not in doubt, the decisive strike on Taranto harbour had proven to even the most sceptical that there was a role for aircraft carriers in the fleet beyond scouting while also exposing that the fleets' two oldest carriers, HMS Argus and Hermes were desperately in need of replacement. As with the other services the need to keep the shipyards open was a factor as was the fact that the Ark Royal design needed less work than the King George V, making it the least bad option. As with the other services the summer would not be for relaxation, especially for the Director of Naval Construction, Sir Stanley Goodall, and his staff.


    ---
    For the next update we descend into the fractious world of the Labour Party conference, thus I am obliged to issue the following warning: The next update will contain scenes of full frontal socialism and extreme social democrat action, viewers of a nervous disposition are advised to look away.
     
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    Chapter XLIV: The Fate of a Party.
  • Chapter XLIV: The Fate of a Party.

    In a normal year the Labour Party spring conference would be a quiet affair, the fireworks and turbulence saved for the annual gathering in the autumn conference season. 1936 was not a normal year and the spring conference would be anything but quiet. While many of the issues that exploded so dramatically on the conference floor had been coming to a head for years, the catalyst was undoubtedly the crushing General Election defeat of the previous year. The sudden swing from an expected victory over a discredited government to a crushing defeat barely better than that suffered in 1931 had been a shock to the party, one which the various factions were all too keen to blame on each other. This infighting was heightened by the ongoing leadership election, George Lansbury having resigned in the aftermath of the general election defeat and agreeing to stay as temporary leader until the conference could elect his replacement.

    Broadly the party was divided between the trade union wing and the parliamentary party of MPs and hangers on, although there were significant divides even within those broad groupings. The most recent issue between the group was leadership; the union's firmly believing Lansbury had been kept in the job to prevent a 'TUC' man taking his place before the election, a charge with a considerable amount of truth to it. That was however only a symptom of the deeper divide was between the two groups, particularly over the issues of communism and pacifism, the latter increasingly being seen as an acid test of which side you were on. To the mostly pacifist MPs re-armament was unnecessary, internationally provocative and a waste of money that should be spent on domestic matters, conversely the unions tended to see it as a vital precaution in dangerous times and, more importantly, a massive boost for the economy and thus their member's interests.

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    Sir Stafford Cripps, leader of the Socialist League and voice of the Labour hard left. The archetype of the 1930s upper class socialist he was most vocal proponent of a British 'Popular Front' to combat fascism, an idea that the virulently anti-communist trade union movement found abhorrent. However as one of only three surviving ministers from the pre-1931 Labour Government he was party grandee who still commanded significant support, not just from the left of the party.

    It was against this backdrop that the leadership election was held, the candidates being Clement Attlee, standing for the mainstream parliamentarians, Arthur Greenwood as the TUC candidate, Stafford Cripps for the socialist wing of the party and the wildly ambitious Herbert Morrison for the 'new blood' of MPs. Of these Morrison's campaign soon fizzled out, his lack of contacts outside of the London party and disinterest from the union delegates killing his campaign before it really started, leaving only three candidate with a chance of winning. The next to fall was Cripps, his leadership of the 'Socialist League' alienating a trade union movement that had spent the early 1930s issuing 'Black Circulars', banning communists from any union position on threat of de-affiliating the offending organisation from the TUC. With the union block vote against him Cripps managed to lose his remaining support through a series of ill advised speeches, culminating in his address to the conference where he expounded his view that an Italian victory 'would not have been a bad thing for the British working class', a phrase that saw his leadership bid end in boos and jeers and a hurried resolution from the National Executive to disassociate itself entirely from his speech.

    This left a contest between Attlee and Morrison, a proxy for the fight between the party machine and the unions. While Attlee initially held the lead his campaign was unwittingly undermined by those who sought to help him, as the party hierarchy closed ranks around him to fend of the unions he became more and more associated with the old guard who had been so soundly thrashed in back to back elections. As a leading member of Lansbury's shadow cabinet Attlee had few grounds to defend himself, he had not dissented against the pacifist and anti-rearmament policies of Lansbury or the election manifesto, so could not claim a major change of heart over the issues without appearing grossly opportunistic. Thus he had little choice but to accept the endorsement of men such as Baron Ponsonby, the avowed pacifist who lead the Labour peers in the House of Lords and Arthur Henderson, the former Foreign Secretary awarded the Nobel Peace prize for chairing a failed global disarmament conference. With post-war patriotic feeling still running high, and the very real benefit re-armament was having on the industrial areas that were Labour's heartlands, the prestige such men brought to a candidate was matched by the very real damage their association also brought.

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    Walter Citrine, chairman of the Trades Union Congress. The election was the culmination of years of hard work by Citrine and his colleagues in the trade union movement.

    At the final count the union block vote combined with the pro-rearmament groups, and the many activists who feared another crushing electoral defeat, to propel Arthur Greenwood into the leadership at Attlee's expense. This victory was the culmination of the work of Ernest Bevin, chairman of the Transport & General Workers Union, and Walter Citrine, holder of the same post at the TUC, completing the trade union take over of the Labour Party. The following months would see a radical shake up of the party's National Executive Committee, increasing trade union influence at the cost of the parliamentary party, and an extension of the role of union block voting in deciding party policy and manifesto. In many ways the election of Greenwood was a return to the party's roots when the TUC had first started funding parliamentary candidates, it certainly had a moderating effect on the party; the upper-middle class socialists that made up the hard left radical wing of the party were forced out by the pragmatic TUC. Yet it was not all good news for the party, the city bosses from outside the Labour heartland, men such as the ambitious London MP Herbert Morrison, saw their path to the top suddenly blocked. Such men did not just give up when faced with obstacles, as the new Labour leadership would discover to its cost.
     
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    Chapter XLV: The Will of the People.
  • Chapter XLV: The Will of the People.

    The French legislative election boiled down to a contest of foreign policy, the other issues facing the country paling in comparison to the questions of France's status as a Great Power and her 'Honneur et gloire'; her honour and glory. The 1930s had not been kind to France, the great depression had bit deep into her economy while the reputation of the Third Republic had been rocked by a string of scandals amongst the legislature. In foreign affairs France's influence was diminishing while her sphere of influence contracted, where once the Quai d'Orsay had been active from the Caribbean to the Pacific the focus had narrowed to an obsessional fixation with Germany. This would not have been such bad a thing had any tangible benefit resulted, sadly the only result was a detailed knowledge of which clause of Versailles Hitler was breaking at any given moment.

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    The Quai d'Orsay, home of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Like their counterparts at the British Foreign Office the diplomats who worked at the Ministry had lost the aggressive and ambitious drive that had characterised their predecessors. The election would be an opportunity for the French public to express their recently discovered displeasure at this turn of events.

    This had not been too serious a political problem for the various governments, while the spectre of the losses of the Great War loomed over France policies of peace would always be more popular than those that risked war. In this context the true impact of the Abyssinian War and Sarraut's stand over the Rhineland become clear, the demonstration that boldness did not always result in a repeat of Verdun changed the nature of foreign policy. The question asked of any issue changed from "What is the risk of war?" to "What do we risk through inaction?", a question the main French parties had not asked themselves for quite some time, much to the detriment of France herself.

    The French electorates new, or more accurately remembered, emphasis on France's place in the world was reflected in the opinion polls; the ratings for Sarraut's Socialist Radicals and Flandin's Alliance Républicaine Démocratique sky-rocketed after the Rhineland Crisis. That these parties should benefit was particularly ironic given the rights pacifist arguments throughout the 1930s and Sarraut's decision not to involve France in the Abyssinian War barely months before. Yet, through all the charges of electoral opportunism and naked cynicism, many of the justified, both parties stood by their actions during the crisis and claimed they had been acting out of deeply held conviction and in the interests of France. Indeed the previous pacifism was exploited by Flandin, the ARD attempting to appeal to the still sizeable anti-war section of the electorate by portraying themselves as against wars of aggression overseas but not afraid to defend France. The slogan 'The party of peace, but not peace at any price' sums up their attempt to be all things to all men.

    At the other end of the political spectrum the entire episode was nothing less than a disaster for the Popular Front, not only did they lack the credibility and reputation the crisis had, perhaps unfairly, bestowed on the governing parties, there own policies were in tatters. The leadership's attempts to rectify this revealed the Achilles heel of the Popular Front; internal divisions. While the Socialist Radicals and ARD had their own internal arguments over their sudden conversion to interventionism, they were nothing compared to the wranglings inside the Popular Front. The attempt to alter the agreed joint platform rapidly spiraled out of control as old divisions between Maurice Thorez's Section Française de l'Internationale Communiste (SFIC, the French Section of the Communist International) and Blum's Section Française de l'Internationale Ouvrière (SFIO, the French Section of the Workers International) tore open and previously settled policies became points of contention. With the centre-left SFIO particularly vulnerable to voters opting for other centrist parties there was even talk of 'The deal' being reversed, with the Thorez replacing Blum as leader of the Front. While this was never likely, no matter how bad a collapse of the SFIO vote they were never likely to poll less than the communists, it does demonstrate the scale of arguments within the Front. While electoral reality (and order's from Moscow in Thorez's case) kept the parties together, the atmosphere was poisonous with more energy devoted to internal scheming and arguments than attracting votes.

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    The results of the 1936 legislative elections, the fractured nature of the voting made coalition politics vital to obtain a working majority. The resultant weakness of the government, and the compromise necessary to maintain unity, would be a serious problem for France throughout the rest of the decade.

    Naturally, such infighting prevented any attempt to carry out the same rapid change of direction the Radical and ARD leadership had imposed on their parties, with devastating consequences at the polls. After the second round of voting the combined Popular Front vote came to less than the PCF and SFIO had managed separately in 1932, prompting another savage round of internal arguments. The collapse of the much heralded Front left the way clear for Sarraut to retain the Presidency of the Council, although still requiring significant support from the ARD and other centre-right parties to maintain a workable majority. During the election it has been expected the first priority of any government would be to formulate a long term policy on the Rhineland, yet ironically the first challenge for Sarraut after defeating Lebrun's Popular Front would come from another Popular Front, Manuel Azaña's governing Frente Popular in Spain.
     
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    Chapter XLVI: For King or Country - Part I.
  • Chapter XLVI: For King or Country - Part I.

    Had the freshly re-elected French Prime Minister, Albert Sarraut, wished to influence, or even understand, events in Spain he would have been ill-advised to send diplomats to Madrid. Event after Manuel Azaña's ascendancy from Presidente del Gobierno (President of the Government or Prime Minister) to Presidente de Espana (President of Spain, the head of state) he would remain confined to the role of catalyst, the trigger for events that others would attempt to control. If the French government had possessed slightly more knowledge of the situation, Sarraut may have been tempted to send agents to Spanish North Africa, to monitor the meetings of army commanders. While he would find plots and conspirators in abundance, he would also find that the centre of power lay elsewhere. To put our notional French leader out of his misery, to find the eye of the coming storm he would not have to look any further than King Charles Street, Westminster and the palatial buildings that housed the British Foreign Office.

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    The Durbar Court in the heart of the Indian Office, which shared King Charles Street with the Foreign Office. While the Foreign Office was still a stronghold of appeasement, pacifism and a generally timid approach to dealing with European matters (the Far East being a different matter) things were beginning to change. A combination of political pressure from the cabinet and competition from the Indian Office would force a return to the more expansive policies of the Victorian era.

    That Britain was in a position to exert such influence over the future of Spain was not the product of cunning intelligence or diabolical intrigue, but the result of a lucky find by an Army Intelligence unit and basic geography. The former came in the aftermath of Operation Templar, searching the over run Italian Army HQs indirectly revealed the coup plot by way of the Regia Aeronautica involvement. The latter can be summed up in one word; Gibraltar. Sitting slap bang between the coup leaders in Morocco and the Spanish mainland any attempt to move from one to the other could be stopped dead by even a modest force operating out of 'The Rock'.

    In summary Britain had the means, the opportunity and, due to the vast scale of British interests in Spain, the motivation to get involved. The problem for the cabinet therefore was what not if to get involved, but how to intervene, which of the many possible outcomes were best for Britain and how to bring it about. As previously discussed the two obvious options available; supporting the government or supporting the coup were both considered unattractive (dislike of the communist and far left elements of the government and concern over the violent reputation and Italian links of the plotters respectively). The other option, doing nothing, despite leaving the vast and important interests in the country at considerable risk of being seized or falling under hostile control, had been the front runner, if only due to being 'least bad'. Such an option had been utterly unacceptable to Churchill while Prime Minister, so he had instructed that all efforts be made to delay the coup until a fourth option could be found, one that Britain could whole-heartedly support. After Churchill's rapid fall from power it would be Chamberlain who would inherit that fourth option, a typically bold and ambitious scheme but one that would have the most unexpected side effects.

    While the delaying efforts was spectacularly successful, partly because Italy's defeat in the Abyssinian War had curtailed their ability to assist and partly because the coup's main financial backer, the extraordinarily wealthy Juan March Ordinas, was a British agent in Gibraltar and so controllable, the fourth option appeared an impossibility. The polarisation of the country during the election had reduced Spain to two colossal factions on the left and the right, the few remaining centrists were too small a body to be of any account. The key to the British solution was the realisation that they did not need to create a new faction if they could make influence either of the existing ones to more acceptable policies. With this in mind the coup chief planner, General Emilio Mola, naturally came to the fore, having been sent by the Popular Front government to the backwater province of Navarre he had forged links with one of the largest groups in Spain, and one which would be vital to the British plans; the traditionalist pro-monarchy Carlists.

    As a group to support, the Carlists were attractive for a variety of reasons; quite aside from their large size and diverse membership they possessed their own milita, the Requetés, who had been equipped and trained by various governments throughout the Second Republic era, They had strong links to the Catholic Church (another important anti-government group) and had a non-military political organisation with a strong presence in the Cortes. Despite these advantages, or perhaps because of them, they punched well below their weight in terms of influence, the coup plotters being reluctant to give concessions to any political party when there was the prospect of forming a military Junta, with one of their own as Caudillo. The political leader, Manuel Fal Conde, while aware of the problem could see no solution, with the army providing the muscle, plans and, indirectly through Juan Ordinas' network, the finance for the coup they were in the driving seat. In summary they were a sleeping giant, potentially very powerful but, through circumstances beyond their control, unable to leverage their advantages into power and influence.

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    The man who would be King? Francisco Javier de Borbón Parma y de Braganza, Duke of Parma and Piacenza, was the Carlist Regent under the name Javier I. With the senior claimant, Alfonso Carlos, Duke of San Jaime, undesirable due to age, he was over eighty years old, and his lack of children, the Carlist Communion accepted the logic of skipping straight to the regent, to the relief of the British.

    The decisive factor in favour of the Carlists was, perhaps, more emotional than practical, certainly it would not have been as influential to other nations as it was to Britain. Put simply the Carlist aim, a restored Spanish monarchy, appealed to the British sensibility; Britain had bult her empire and thrived under a constitutional monarchy, clearly it was the best of all possible systems and could only be good for Spain. That is not to say there were not practical benefits from a British point of view, supporting the restoration of the King as a constitutional monarch would, by definition, remove the possibility of a military Junta running the country. The restoration would also help put the Carlist political wing, the Comunión Tradicionalista, into power hopefully providing a further bulwark against extremism and, of course, ensuring that the British help was remembered and suitably rewarded by the new government. These carefully assembled plans were shattered with news from the intelligence networks in Spanish North Africa;

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    Although far from as extensive as Admiral Hugh 'Quex' Sinclair wished the SIS spy networks across Europe, and in Spain particularly, had expanded considerably thanks to the extra funds provided by Churchill. This investment would pay off, the new agents providing invaluable information to the British government throughout the entire affair. In the spring of 1936 the key agent in Spain would be Major Hugh Pollard; with agents scattered across Spanish North Africa his work would keep Whitehall better informed than the Republican government in Madrid.

    As worrying as the initial reports were, the details proved even more disturbing. While the exercises were a genuine government idea, an opportunity the plotters had dismissed as being too soon and forcing them to act before they were ready, it appeared that the former chief of staff, General Fransicso Franco felt differently. After Franco had been sent to the Canaries by the Popular Front government he had, naturally, been approached by both Mola and the coup figure head José Sanjurjo. However at the time he had been decidedly ambivalent about it, to such an extent the plotters had planned to proceed without him. The mystery of why he had so dramatically changed his mind had an alarming answer; Major Pollard reported the presence of a large contingent of Abwehr agents in the Canary Islands.
     
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    Chapter XLVII: For King or Country - Part II.
  • Chapter XLVII: For King or Country - Part II.

    The discovery of the Abwher agents in the Canary Islands had shaken British plans, no allowance had been made for foreign intervention before the coup. The news worsened as it became clear Franco intended to go alone, realising that sharing the effort would require sharing the prize, he believed the German assistance would be enough to get him into power. This caused considerable consternation in both Whitehall and the plotters unofficial HQ in Pamplona, if Franco succeeded he was clearly not going to share power while should he fail the government crack down would kill their plan before it had a chance to begin. The solution would come from a most unexpected source, the German contingent which insisted Franco co-operate as a condition of their support for him. While SIS put this surprising change down to the Abwher's realisation of the need for a united group, in fact it was due to orders from Berlin direct from the Fuhrer.

    For Hitler the coup represented a dream opportunity; the chance for the Reich and the British Empire to work together in defeating Bolshevism. While such an alliance was never considered even a possibility by the British government, certainly not after the fall of Baldwin, it was an obsession of Hitler's and thus not limited by such inconvenient facts. Despite this there was solid logic behind the action, given the damage done to Hitler's reputation and relations with the armed forces by the Rhineland debacle it is unlikely any scheme would have got off the ground without reason beyond idealised obsession. The German economy depended very heavily on imports of certain raw materials, materials found in abundance in Spain, and domestic demand could only grow as the pace of the still secret re-armament accelerated. To have a friendly, indebted, government in power in Madrid could only be of benefit for Hjalmar Schacht and his negotiation team from the Reich Ministry of Economics. Yet that was not the main reason the sceptical War Ministry supported the man who had almost pushed Germany into a disastrous war weeks earlier, for them the decisive factor was the chance to fundamentally change Germany's unfavourable strategic situation.

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    Hjalmar Schacht, Reich Minister for Economics. Amongst his many responsibilities was ensuring the supply of raw materials to the industries of Germany. The fallout from the recent foreign policy disasters had only made that job harder with many countries reluctant to trade with an aggressive and opportunistic Germany, even though such moves had not been successful the intentions had been clear. For Schacht and his ministry a friendly Spain, sending its iron, mercury and other ores to Hamburg not Liverpool would solve many of their problems.

    The Rhineland debacle had brutally reminded the German government of the advantages France still held over them, not that any reminder was needed, and had resulted in humiliation and French troops once more marching on German soil. It had also reinforced the strategic status quo, France would have to maintain the de-militarised Rhineland for the future or face a humiliating climb down of her own. For as long as that was the case France could advance, unopposed, into the Rhineland basin and occupy a fifth of Germany's heavy industry and almost a sixth of her population before any conflict even began. This situation was only made worse by the defeat of Italy and the Treaty of Valletta, as the Treaty came into effect France would be able to draw down her forces in North Africa, freeing up troops for the Maginot Line and the northern borders. Worse Italy would be in no fit state to provide even a notional threat across the Alps, allowing an even greater concentration of men and attention on the German border. Intervention in Spain offered the chance to open a new 'front', to force France to divert time and men to her southern border and distract her from the Rhineland, something that could only be of benefit to Germany. Some in the War Ministry even hoped for a big enough distraction to allow a more successful attempt at re-occupation after the French withdrew their troops, something that could never be possible if France only had one border to seriously watch. While far from wildly enthusiastic, certainly compared to their political masters, the War Ministry believed the potential rewards to be exceptionally valuable while the risks were tolerable, particularly given the presence of the British would help to temper any rash action from France, or any other power that felt compelled to react.

    For the government in Westminster the news of co-operation was almost as unwelcome as that of Franco's independent stance, the discovery Britain would be working with the Germans caused many formerly enthusiastic supporters to pause. The German actions over the Rhineland, coming after the Italian declaration of war, had left many with the impression that fascist government were inherent warmongers, an accusation with more than a grain of truth about it. Moreover the arguments about carving up influence over the new Spanish government brought home the harsh reality of the plan to many, men who had only read sanitised and euphemism filled reports. Bluntly speaking Britain intended to overthrow a democratically elected government and install an at least partially military influenced government, something many in the Foreign Office felt to be distinctly un-British. These people were of course completely wrong, even the briefest look at the history of British India for instance will throw up similar examples, but it was still a source of discomfort to many, not only those based in King Charles Street.

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    Sir Eric Phipps, British Ambassador to Berlin during the Iberian Affair. As one of the few in the Foreign Office who had consistently warned of the threat posed by Hitler's expansionist plans his opinion was very much in demand at the start of the crisis. Phipps reported that, unpleasant as working with Hitler was to many, leaving the ambitious Germany to act alone was an even worse option.

    A great deal of this anxiety dissipated, or at least was diverted, as Manuel Azaña formally assumed the Presidency and began a concerted and intolerant shift to the hard left, seemingly with little regard for the destabilising effects on both the Popular Front and the country. The new leadership rapidly abandoned the constitutional republicanism of it's moderate centre-left members in favour of a far more socialist direction, the Partido Comunista de España (PCE, Spanish Communist Party) very much to the fore, it's leaders following the Comintern's line with talk of revolution and a worker's state. While much of this talk was dismissed as little more than provocative rhetoric by the moderates it was clear men such as Largo Caballero, 'The Spanish Lenin' according to Pravda, were speaking with the tacit approval of at least part of the government when they declared revolution to be iminent. Faced with such a possibility the main centre right grouping, the Confederación Española de Derechas Autónomas (CEDA, Spanish Confederation of the Autonomous Right), effectively gave up on las Cortes and parliamentary means of opposition, instead giving it's support to Mola and the British faction through the Carlist parties linking the two groups.

    Aghast at the prospect of Soviet supported Spain, Azaña had unwittingly encouraged the wavering Cabinet members and stiffened their resolve. While still uncomfortable these men accepted that some sort of coup was now inevitable in Spain and that the Monarchists around Mola were the least bad option, certainly compared to the prospect of a Soviet controlled Spain or a Nazi supported dictatorship under Franco. That last point was, of course, a crucial sticking point in negotiations over the planned government of post-coup Spain with neither side even able to agree amongst themselves, let alone with each other, other even the basics. In the end, as Franco's inflexible deadline of early June approached, the issue was fudged; The Carlists and the British got agreement Spain would be a constitutional monarchy of some sort with Javier I as King, but his exact role and constitutional powers were left vague, as was the date for fresh elections. Franco and his German backers got chairmanship of the 'Military Council', a body that would 'advise' the King and the government, again with it left unclear how forceful this 'advice' would be and if the body was temporary or permanent. Although it was obvious at the time the compromise was only storing up problems for the future, some of which would come home to roost far earlier than anyway feared, both sides fully expected events in Spain to allow them alone to dictate the final nature of the government.

    With the tentative agreement in place planning could finally proceed to the actual coup, although it would soon become obvious too much time had been wasted on the politics leaving too little left for the military, yet neither Franco nor his German backers would back down, the coup date was fixed for the 4th of June at the climax of the North African military exercises. The consequences of their self-serving obstinacy would be terrible, not just for them and their fellow plotters, but for the whole of Spain.
     
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    Chapter XLVIII: The Best Laid Plans.
  • Chapter XLVIII: The Best Laid Plans.

    The joint army-navy exercises ordered by the Spanish government in the spring 1936 have gone down in history as a terrible error, an awful mistake by President Azaña that, had it been avoided, would have saved Spain much bloodshed further down the line. While such an analysis has a severe flaw, confusing the trigger for an event and the pressures and factors that made the event inevitable, it does hit the point that the exercises gave the Republic's enemies a chance to legitimately meet up and plan away from prying eyes, even if it also forced some of them to act earlier than they wished. This last point leads on to a third, more subtle explanation; that Azaña's decision did indeed make the war inevitable, but not for the conventional reasons. It can be argued that had their been no exercises there would have been no opportunity for Franco's coup plot to happen and instead the more thorough plan of Mola and his British 'advisers' would have been implemented at a later date, the longer preparation making the coup more likely to succeed thus bypassing the civil war. The key point of this third analysis is that a plot or coup of some kind was inevitable, therefore they only was to avoid a war would be the total crushing or complete success of the coup. Whether this is a damning indictment of the actions of the government or the intolerance of the armed forces depends as much upon your political alignment as any appraisal of events.

    For all that the exercises were welcomed at the time as a master stroke, the government keen on a chance to get the armed forces out of the towns and cities of the mainland and off into the desert, far away from the rising tensions. That there was such bad blood between the government and its own military was partly political, a reactionary army and a radical left cabinet were never going to get on well, and partly due to personality. Azaña was bitterly distrusted by the military, his previous tenure in government had seen a harsh 're-organisation' of the army, with defence academies closed, troop numbers cut and many reserve roles transferred to the political militias. Indeed in an ironic twist of fate the Carlist militias so active in the coup and following war had been armed and trained under that Azaña initiative. Therefore it is easy to see why the idea of sending the army and navy to Africa for a month would seem attractive, however it also shows how ill informed the government was about its own military; had there been doubts about the generals the exercises would never have happened. Yet, as is often the case, the contempt of Azaña and the Popular Front leadership for the military lead them to consistently under-estimate the army and their political allies, dismissing their obvious discontent as reactionary moaning, which in many cases it was but that did not make it unimportant or less dangerous to the country's stability.

    Franco's plan was essentially simple, the final climactic day of the exercises was scheduled for an amphibious assault, modelled on the British attack at Tobruk, and Franco simply planned to re-direct the attack from an empty African beach to the ports of Southern Spain. As a plan it had only one flaw and unfortunately it was a very significant one; it was assumed that the Armarda was as solidly behind the coup as the Ejército. In fairness the higher ranks of the navy were indeed behind the coup, the problem would come from the lower ranks of the fleet where socialist tendencies were far stronger, however this was of little comfort to the Generals and their various 'advisers' as Franco's plans unravelled. Problems began almost the moment after the change of direction was announced, the 'other ranks' rapidly working out their could only be one reason why the ships full of soldiers were heading towards the mainland not the exercise ground. While the majority of crews joined the coup, the Admirals had carefully selected the ships for the exercise for that very reason, there was enough resistance to let the loyalists transmit several radio messages to the rest of the fleet before being captured.

    This early failure, while delaying the actual departure by less than an hour, nevertheless presented several considerable and inter-linked problems. Firstly it had to be assumed the government would become aware of the plot, forcing the mainland contingent to act ahead of schedule before government counter-measures could be put into effect. This lead to the second problem; there would not be enough forces to hit all the coup targets at once, reducing the desired dis-orientating effect that was so vital. Finally the transit from the exercise ground to Spain would take several hours, during which the unarmed troop ships would be vulnerable to the remainder of the fleet, not least the Espana class battleship Jaime I and her escorts.

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    Jaime I, the only fully functional battleship in the Spanish navy, her sister ship Espana having been laid up for disposal, ironically on President Azaña's orders during his last spell in power. While Espana would be rushed back into service by the Republicans at the Bilbao yards, Jaime I would spend the early part of the war walking a fine line; too powerful to sit idle but too valuable to risk losing. As the smallest dreadnoughts ever commissioned, at a mere 460ft long and less than 16,500 tons displacement they were shorter and barely heavier than the Canarias, the new County-class heavy cruiser that had defected to the Monarchists at the start of the coup. Despite carrying a notional armour and gunnery advantage, eight 12" guns to the Canaris' eight 8", it was the opinion of the Royal Navy that the superior speed, accuracy and more modern armour of the County-class would make the fight far nearer even, particularly given the undoubted degradation of the Jaime I during years of 'cost-saving' low to zero maintenance. Whether this was accurate or merely nationalistic bravado would be tested later in the war.

    That last point deserves a brief detour, for it is an excellent demonstration of the limits of foreign intervention at that point. Either of the two foreign powers could easily have protected the rebel transports; the local Royal Navy contingent, Force H harboured in Gibraltar with the two battlecruisers HMS Renown and HMS Repulse, was more than a match for the Republican fleet on it's own. The German contingent, while lacking a large fleet to call on, could have used the the large contingent of 'Lufthansa' airliners (and their Luftwaffe trained pilots) in Spain to shadow the main fleet and provide long range warning for the transports. Yet these offers, although discussed in private, were never made and the bulk of the Army of Africa would have to wait for suitable air transport to be arranged, a delay that would prove fatal. There is a not inconsiderable irony in this; the offers were not made due to fear of being associated with a failed coup, yet it was arguably the lack of that very support that made the coup fail.

    When considering that above it is not surprising that the actual coup, or as some would later describe it the first day of the Spanish Civil War, did not go as well as hoped. The commanders still in Spain were forced to divert their remaining forces to cover the missing Army of Africa, concentrating on key governmental and industrial targets rather than the planned wide-scale revolt. While this concentration of force was successful in it's limited aims; Seville, Barcelona and ,vitally, the capital Madrid all fell to the rebels on the first day, the lack of success in the Central/South West of the country and the volatile Basque-country was marked. It is arguable that it was the key factor in prompting the government to flee Madrid rather than surrender to the swarms of Carlist militias that had overwhelmed the few 'Assault Guard' police units that had stayed loyal to the government. As it was the defiance of Valencia and Bilbao provided a safe refugee to flee to and a base from which the Popular Front leaders could rally their supporters. Regardless, as the dust settled on that first fateful day it was clear that while the coup had not succeeded it also had neither failed nor been put down.

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    As this map shows the key Republican holdouts were in the Basque country, particularly the iron, steel and shipbuilding regions of Bilbao, the mainly agricultural belt running from Badajoz to Almería and the key city of Valencia which became the new Republican capital. Rebel, or as they soon styled themselves Monarchists, success were obviously the key cities of Madrid, Seville and Barcelona, the last in the fact of considerable resistance from the Catalan nationalists who rapidly declared for the pro-devolution Republicans.

    More surprising perhaps is the success in La Coruna and Huelva, both heavily industrial areas that should have been pro-Republican strongholds. In both of those cases it was the actions of the major employers, the Sociedad Española de Construcción Naval in Ferrol (La Coruna) and the large copper mines such as Rio Tinto in Huelva, that helped tip the balance, providing bases and equipment to the Monarchist militias and keeping anarchist and socialist trade union leader distracted until it was too late. With such actions these firms became committed to the Monarchist cause, a highly political act from firms that had traditionally avoided overtly siding with any faction in Spain. Whether this was influence from London on the British owners and managers of these firms, a rumour MI6 did nothing to deny as it strengthened the British negotiating position, or merely foresight of what a left leaning Republican government would do, as evidenced by the enforced nationalisations in Bilbao later in the year, is still uncertain as many relevant files remain sealed.

    What is certain is that the rumours about the Britain involvement were as important as any reality, as the aftershocks of the coup spread throughout Europe and the world there would be little chance of Britain being able to convince everybody of having 'clean hands' over the incident.
     
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    Chapter XLIX: The Politics of Pragmatism.
  • Chapter XLIX: The Politics of Pragmatism.

    The confusion and chaos that immediately followed the failed Monarchist coup could, and indeed has, filled several books. While the many groups that rose and fell need not detain us in detail, it is worth noting the shear variety of these groups, the range ran from factory staff forming anarcho-syndicalist communes to ambitious, if deluded, local councils declaring their rule over entire regions. The vast majority of these groups had faded within weeks of the coup with one significant exception; Bilbao and the Basque country. Separated from the new Republican government in Valencia a combination of separatists, anarchists and communists ruled the area for much of the war, the ever changing name of the notional government reflecting which faction or factions were in the ascendancy. This parallel government severely complicated the problems faced by the Republicans by making co-ordination between the 'Northern Pocket', as it came to be known, and the rest of the rump state far more difficult than it should have been, a fact that contributed to the failure of several link-up offensives.

    The fraught relations with the 'Northern Pocket' was only one of the problems facing the Republican government; Much of the army had joined the Monarchists, any army would have to be based on the leftist political militias and the para-military Guardia de Asalto (Assault Guards, the Spanish urban police force mainly drawn from ex-army personnel), financially the flight from Madrid had cut the government off from the country's gold reserves and it's financial capital and on the broader economic front most of the modern heavy industry in the country was either in the 'Northern Pocket' or under monarchist control. Worse the Popular Front was experiencing a second, far more subtle, bureaucratic coup as communists and revolution socialists began taking over key functions in the new government, either by ministerial appointment or stuffing the ministry with loyalists. This expansion was at the expense of the Popular Front political moderates, lacking the bargaining chips of an armed militia or mass membership they were a far easier target than the anarchists and trade unionists that made up the rest of the front. Two main groups to benefit were Largo Caballero's revolutionary wing of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE, Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) and the Partido Comunista de España (PCE, Communist Party of Spain) under José Díaz. The success of the PSOE was down to their larger numbers, strong links with the trade unions and the not inconsiderable charm of Caballero in converting much of the party to revolution. The PCE's success in gaining such power and influence despite small numbers was far simpler and down to one simple fact; money, specifically floods of Soviet money routed from Moscow via the Comintern to the PCE. These funds paid for propaganda and campaigning costs during the 1936 election and later for the bribes to ensure the best jobs went to PCE members or sympathisers. The wisdom of helping a group theoretically dedicated to abolishing money gain power because of bribery by that group is, perhaps, questionable, although the irony of the situation is beyond doubt. The strength of the PCE's position would only grow over the following months as the Soviet's commitment to the Republicans increased.

    This massive financial support was the first tangible proof of Stalin's change of foreign policy to the west, a change that began in the aftermath of the British General Election of 1935. The problem was not the poor showing of the hard left parties, little was expected of the small if committed Communist Party of Great Britain and little was duly delivered, nor was the failure of Labour to make gains a cause for alarm, the fate of the heirs of Lenin's 'Useful idiots' was not a matter that bothered Stalin. The problem was far simpler; the rise of Churchill to Prime Minister represented another Great Power with a vehemently anti-communist leader, a worrying trend for a leader already highly paranoid and with considerable fears of being surrounded and attacked. It was therefore declared that the absolute priority of Soviet foreign policy had to be stopping any other significant nation electing anti-communist leaders, a priority which would be backed by the entire weight of the state. Piecing together the narrative it appears France was considered, incorrectly as it happened, primed for a Popular Front victory and therefore 'safe' while Spain was correctly believed to be marginal. The flow of funding began at the start of 1936 and waxed and waned in accordance with the international situation, slowing as Britain and France became distracted by South Africa, Italy and the Rhineland and peaking as those troubles were overcome and Léon Blum's Popular Front lost in France. In the aftermath of the coup this behind the scenes support became far more extensive and, unavoidably, far more public despite the Soviet Union maintaining an official stance of non-intervention. Although not the most numerous in terms of feet on the ground there is little doubting the importance of the intervention, both in terms of supply of weapons and the opportunity for the hard left parties to leverage the Soviet presence into disproportionate influence on the always shaky Republican government.

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    Maxim Litvinov, Soviet Foreign Minister and one of the behind the scenes architects of the Popular Front policy. The failure in France had been more than balanced by the success in Spain, particularly after Sarraut had acted so decisively in the Rhineland, the aim of Popular Front had been as much anti-fascists as pro-communist after all. The Monarchist coup had badly spooked the Soviets, rumours of the links between the Spanish right and Italy had reached as far as Moscow. This reaction only grew stronger as the German involvement became apparent and was the spur behind the increase in Soviet intervention.

    The Soviet Union was far from the only country to intervene in the war, as the dust settled and it became apparent that the matter would not be quickly overcome many of the nations of Europe began taking a serious interest in Iberia. For the most part the interest was entirely commercial, the prospect of significant arms sales at a time of depression was enough to motivate many otherwise disinterested countries into action. Government export officials and arms salesmen, often the same person for the state owned firms, flooded into the country to hawk their wares, Dutch Fokker representatives rubbed shoulders with Belgians from Fabrique Nationale, the Czechs machine gun makers of Zbrojovka Brno and a dozen other national arm makers all chasing the same two buyers. These efforts were, initially at least, to be a disappointment to the salesmen and their political and corporate masters, the two factions had already agreed their respective sources of arms, although for completely different reasons. The Monarchists choice had been made for them, in a rare burst of complete agreement the British and German 'advisers' had declared that the only firms based in their countries would be acceptable. While this strained relations between the two sides it was not too serious an issue, especially as both nations made sure no firm took excessive advantage of the situation and offered mostly fair deals without skimping on quality or specification. Critically however there was an early stand-off by both sides, neither willing to sell their latest models to Spain to avoid tipping of the other, while this would relax as the conflict grew more serious it was always a factor in the availability of Monarchist arms and equipment.

    The Republicans faced a more fundamental problem before deciding on supplier; how to pay for the arms in the first place. Separated from both the gold reserves and the hard currency holdings in the treasury their options were decidedly limited, payment in exported goods or credit purchases appeared to be the only short term possibilities. The need for these unconventional deals was a boon for the moderates, the requirement for presenting an 'acceptable face' (ie non-Communist) to the many suppliers and their governments kept President Azaña in office and the Foreign Ministry full of moderates, even as they were squeezed from the rest of government. Unsurprisingly the push for credit sales was mostly unsuccessful, the vast majority of arms firms were, and still are, unwilling to extend substantial credit to anyone, let alone a government in a civil war. The idea of credit sales was also far from popular with the Soviet Union's representatives, the communist state could always find uses for foreign hard currency whatever official ideology said about the evils of capitalism. However the idea was grudgingly accepted and arrangements were made for significant shipments, deposits paid for in exports and the balance on credit to be paid when Madrid was re-captured, something the Soviets were assured was top priority. Theses relatively generous terms did not make the deals particularly good however, far from it in fact, the shipments regularly arrived late, even allowing for the convoluted supply routes, and with far less ammunition than any European supplier would dream of providing. For all that though there were positive to the Soviet deals beyond the price; the communists militias received free equipment and training, 'observers' were sent who rapidly did far more than just watch and the 'volunteer' units who flocked to Spain were little more than cover for crews and training staff for the new tanks and aircraft.

    The other significant supplier was somewhat surprising, and certainly due to the policy of maintaining the façade that the Popular Front was still in power; France. The news of the coup had come as a total shock to Sarraut and his government, while it was known in general terms the government was unpopular no-one in the Quai d'Orsay had predicted a coup and was consequently left somewhat flat footed. Initially the coup managed the previously unthinkable and united left and right, with both Léon Blum's Popular Front and Pierre-Étienne Flandin's Democratic Republican Alliance calling for immediate and active intervention in the war, sadly however they were calling for intervention on different sides; Blum naturally cleaving to the Spanish Popular Front while Flandin equally naturally favoured intervention on the Monarchist side. For Sarraut the choice was less obvious, following his parliamentary ally Flandin's lead would upset much of the Radicalist left and possibly lead to the fall of the government, while backing the Republicans would mean building a new coalition with Blum's Popular Front and hoping he didn't lose too many from the right of his party. This did of course presume intervention was the correct course of action, with French troops still occupying the Rhineland General Gamelin and the General Staff urged caution, if France became too heavily embroiled in Spain there was a great risk the Germans may take advantage of the overstretch, forcing the country into a two front war. With such considerations weighing heavily on Sarraut's mind there can be little doubt the revelation of German involvement in the coup came as something of a relief, transforming a complex strategic and political decision into a far simpler one. As news spread through the government Flandin rapidly changed sides, recoiling from the prospect of supporting the Germans and hurriedly converting to the Republican cause.

    The revelation was also welcomed by General Gamelin who played it up for all it was worth, revelling in the proof that his staff's warnings had been correct, while neatly sidestepping the fact that his staff had also never suspected foreign involvement in Spain. Despite this the General Staff's stock was once again high, their opposition to the Rhineland operation was increasingly seen as foresighted not over-cautious, this recovery of reputation allowed them to effectively veto direct military intervention, not that this was entirely unpopular with the politicians. For all the bluster by politicians of both sides the words had been carefully chosen to never specify what sort of 'intervention' France should make, reflecting the continuing doubts over whether the electorate's rediscovered desire for 'Honour and Glory' would survive an actual battle, let alone suffering casualties. The shaky consensus also ruled out significant economic aid, with the depression still gripping France tightly none but the most committed could justify the vast cost of meaningful financial aid, a decision that extended to supply of free equipment. With options limited the government, supported in the main by the Popular Front, decided to exert pressure on arms firms to sell their wares at reduced rates, with the incentives of tax breaks and Popular Front pressure on the relevant unions not to strike for firms who agreed. As the deals were negotiated and it became clear the Republicans would try and pay with goods and raw materials, this assistance rapidly snowballed into government agents agreeing to assist with the assessment of the exports, providing an honest value for the cargoes guaranteed by the French government, at the cost of any over payment going straight to the treasury not the arms firm.

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    With the bulk of the French border in Monarchist hands, bar the area around the Northern Pocket, the Republican were forced to export by sea. As the railways had previously dominated the result was an explosion of activity in the ports along France's Mediterranean coast. This was just one of the many benefits to the French economy of intervention, although it would not be long before the downsides became all too apparent.

    That the Deuxième Bureau (the Second Bureau of the General Staff, France's external military intelligence agency) also reported the British presence and suspected involvement was not acted upon at the time, frankly there were enough problems for France to deal with without a major row with a formerly close ally. However it would not be forgotten, especially by the Anglophobic 'Contintentalists' in the government, and would later become the catalyst for a major change in French foreign policy.
     
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    Chapter L: Fallout and Aftershocks Part I - Scandinavia.
  • Chapter L: Fallout and Aftershocks Part I - Scandinavia.

    The summer of 1936 was an exceptionally busy one politically, although there was activity from Washington to Tokyo and even down to Wellington, it was in Europe that the activity was so frenetic. With one war fought and won, one war narrowly avoided and a civil war still ongoing on the continent this should not be surprising, what should surprise is how many nations not directly involved in any of those events ended up experiencing such serious after effects. The events described here did not all neatly occur at once, instead they occurred over wildly varying time-scales ranging from the slow burning crisis in Greece, which had been simmering since the 1935 elections, to the sudden pre-election changes in Sweden. Such is the nature of politics, events that in one country act as a catalyst to explosive action in others are a retardant that allow cooler heads to be heard.

    We begin this overview in Scandinavia, the Nordic nations excellently demonstrating how similar stimuli can have varying results even on close neighbours. In Finland the various events were noted but considered relatively unimportant, save for the confirmation of the comprehensive toothlessness of the League of Nations in the face of armed aggression. Overall however Finland's foreign policy remained almost exclusively devoted to watching east. It was less than twenty years since Finland declared independence from Russia and they rightly feared a resurgent Soviet Union may attempt to claw back it's lost territory. Compared to that threat very little else even registered as worthy of attention. That said the government was not inactive, efforts were made to improve relations with Sweden and try and improve pan-Scandinavian relations in general, the hope being to crack Swedish neutrality and form a defensive alliance to deter the Soviets and any other aggressor. In contrast Norway was broadly unbothered by the Soviets, having neither the history nor borders of Finland it was obviously less on an issue, she was however intently concerned about Germany. Despite leaning towards Britain in the Great War Norway had remained officially neutral, this had not stopped German submarines from sinking over half the national merchant fleet and killing almost 2,000 crew. Although the fleet had not only recovered but expanded in the years since, by the summer of 1936 it was the world's fourth largest by tonnage and contain almost a fifth of the worlds tankers, such events were not forgotten. Consequently the revelations of Hitler's desire for the Baltic to become a German Lake, patrolled by a new large fleet a third the size of the total Royal Navy, were especially dis-concerting, a feeling only reinforced by German actions over the Rhineland. The cumulative effect was to chip away at Norwegian neutrality, the lone voices arguing for a defensive alliance with Britain grew in number and strength. It would only take one more crisis or threatening move to bring the issue to a head, two things the future promised to provide plenty of.

    The position of Sweden was somewhat more complicated and consequently events were considerably more turbulent. The ruling Social Democrats were well disposed to the Soviet Union, despite the leaderships purge of the extreme revolutionary left in the early 1930s there remained a hard core of party members who sympathised with the Soviets. While this lead to an under-estimation of the Soviet threat, much to the disgust of the Finnish ambassador in Stockholm, it did allow the country to focus it's attention onto Germany, a country that was both the a huge potential threat and a lucrative export market. Yet external issues were not dominant in Swedish politics, the autumn general election and the collapse of the governing coalition held that honour. The collapse was almost solely due to internal issues, a falling out between Prime Minister Hansson's Social Democrats and Axel Pehrsson-Bramstorp's Farmer's Party. In essence Hansson was trying to extend worker friendly labour laws into agriculture while at the same time cutting, or at least freezing, agricultural subsidies, a lethal combination to Swedish farming. With the three month campaign under way the King of Sweden, Gustaf V, appointed Pehrsson-Bramstorp as interim Prime Minister who, after unsuccessfully attempting to build a new non-socialist coalition, turned his attention to the lingering problem of the air forces new bomber. Applying direct rural logic to the issue, he reasoned that, as either choice would upset someone, the obvious solution was just to buy the best bomber. This straightforward and honest approach would, he believed, defuse any political impact the choice would have by making it a purely commercial decision. While considered by naive by many Foreign Office veterans, men who saw political subtext in the choice of cutlery at an embassy reception, it had the advantages of being easy to explain to parliament and the public and finally sorting the matter out, not to mention ensuring the air force got the best deal.

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    A Handley Page Hampden HP 53 awaiting evaluation at Malmslatt in Sweden. Essentially a standard Hampden, the HP 53 was fitted with the new Napier Dagger VIII 'H' block engines and various refinements based on 'lessons learnt' after the Abyssinian War

    The problem was getting the air force to decide, whereas previously the Air Board had been united behind the German Ju-86, the Abyssinian War enable the Hampden salesmen to play the ace card - combat experience. It is difficult to overstate the advantage this gave, the Ju-86 was a converted airliner that had never dropped a bomb nor fired a gun in anger, while the Hampden was presented as a combat tested design. Not only that but Handley Page offered a design full of tweaks and changes, for example a change to twin Vickers 'K' machine guns in the turrets and an improved cockpit layout, all based on recommendations from Royal Air Force pilots who'd flown it over North Africa. Moreover the original doubts about the Ju-86 had resurfaced, while it was still the better handling of the two it was had the shortest range and had the lightest bomb load. Not unimportant considerations for an Air Board that had started the search by looking at medium bombers such as the Douglas B-18 and the Heinkel He-111, aircraft far close to the Hampden than the Ju-86. In the end these doubts, combined with the lure of a combat proven design, overcame worries about the Hampden's cramped interior and tipped the balance in favour of Handley Page. True to his word Pehrsson-Bramstorp duly agreed to the Air Board's recommendation and ordered the defence ministry to sign the contract.

    The news was naturally warmly welcomed in London, not only for the significant export success but also for the attendant training and support contracts, work which it was firmly believed could only strengthen Anglo-Swedish relations. While careful not to offend Swedish sensitivities about the contract, the deal was announced to Parliament by the President of the Board of Trade Walter Runciman, rather than the Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden, in an attempt to emphasis the commercial and economic angle, there was as much celebration in the Foreign Office as Handley Page's Headquarters. Naturally this reaction was mirrored in Berlin, the frustration adding to the growing catalogue of failed Foreign Ministry initiatives, ironically strengthening not weakening the Foreign Minister, Konstantin von Neurath, as he had consistently argued against most of them only to be over-ruled. Only in Spain had Germany achieved any kind of overseas success, even then it had been through covert means, moreover the long term outcome was still very much in the balance, both for Spain in general and Germany's proxy Franco in particular.

    In the next update we will look at Northern Europe, obviously focusing on the Rhineland fallout, but also looking at the reactions in the Low Countries and Eastern Europe.
     
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    Chapter LI: Fallout and Aftershocks Part II - Central Europe.
  • Chapter LI: Fallout and Aftershocks Part II - Central Europe.

    When considering the Rhineland Crisis it is important to bear in mind that neither side had actually expected events to unfold as they did. This was especially true on the French side, no plans had been prepared for what to do next, save those by the General Staff which had assumed the outbreak of war between the two nations. There was, in modern jargon, no exit strategy, no idea of when, or even how, to pull the troops out of the Rhineland without losing face or encouraging the Germans to march in the moment they left. More worryingly was the question of time, while the initial response had gained France a measure of respect and was broadly supported, most Germany's neighbours had an interest in seeing the country restrained from such aggression, that support would not last long if France was perceived as the aggressor. The longer France stayed the more questions were asked about what exactly her motives were and if she would in fact leave at all.

    Sarraut's government was not unaware of these concerns but was seriously distracted by the emergence of another serious problem in French foreign policy; the obvious collapse of the Entente Cordiale. The failure had been progressive and relatively good natured, relations with Britain had not seriously deteriorated, the two nations had too many common interests for that, but there was no doubt the never-formal alliance had taken a mortal blow. The root cause was the failure of France to support Britain during the Abyssinian War, that France was under no obligation to join the war and that Britain had succeeded without French help were beside the point to Chamberlain and the rest of the government. The blunt truth was that France had not been there when Britain had needed an ally, so why should Britain commit herself to do what France had so conspicuously not done? The British Ambassador to Paris summed up the problem, having been bombarded with excellent reasons why France had not intervened this time but would certainly do so in the future he commented "The purpose of an alliance is not to have a friend help when it is convenient for them, but to have them come to your aid when it is convenient for you."

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    The Franco-Czech-Polish Alliance sent shock waves throughout the continent. The balance of power was shifting as France re-asserted herself in Central and Eastern Europe

    The solution to these two problem was as elegant as it was audacious, providing France with both a tangible result from the Rhineland intervention and allies to replace the defunct Entente. Quite simply France entered into a full, formal defensive alliance with both Poland and Czechoslovakia. The existing web of limited pacts, qualified agreements and contradictory secret clauses were swept away and the three nations agreed to come to the defence of the other parties in the event they were attacked. The benefits to France were obvious; two new allies, one with a large army, the other with a strong industrial base, both of whom had considerable interest in constraining Germany. For the the Czechs and the Poles the advantages were less clear cut, the advantage of a French guarantee of independence had to be weighed against gaining a new commitment to the third nation, not just against German aggression but any attack. In Poland the centrist 'Castle faction' around President Ignacy Moscicki presented the treaty as a triumph, a treaty that offered guaranteed support in the ongoing territorial disputes with Germany, an argument sufficient to win around General Rydz-Smigly's right wing military faction and ensure the treaty was accepted. The Czech's, who had been unwilling to formalise the alliances in earlier years, were a considerably harder sell for the French diplomats. The essential problem had been that the Czechs had no wish to get involved in the ongoing territorial disputes between Poland and Germany. However Germany's actions in attempting to seize the Rhineland, when seen through the prism of well known German designs on the Sudetenland, had served to focus minds on the immediate threat from that nation. In the end the advantage of two allies with far larger armies outweighed concerns over the extra commitments and the country agreed to join. The solid electoral triumph of President Edvard Beneš, the former foreign minister, gave the government a respected leader and a strong mandate to push the alliance through and ensure full Czech involvement.

    The New Entente, as the Franco-Czech-Polish alliance became known, was not the only diplomatic offensive undertaken by the Quai d'Orsay, there was also the matter of the Little Entente, the French sponsored three way alliance between Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia. With the Czechs and the French now formally allied the weight of French diplomatic pressure, and the skill and determination of the alliances founding father, the recently elected President Beneš, was applied to influencing Romania and Yugoslavia into joining the New Entente. In Romania these efforts met with failure, while the country was involved in many territorial disputes King Carol II and his Prime Minister Gheorghe Tatarescu believed they were in hand; a "Protocol of Mutual Assistance" had been signed with the Soviet Union securing the northern border while the existing Little Entente arrangement was aimed at Hungarian irredentism, providing protection on that front. The only outstanding issue, Bulgarian demands for Romania to return of territory gained after the Second Balkan War, was not considered likely to be anything more than an irritant for the foreseeable future given the relative strengths of the two nations. The judgement was that joining the New Entente would gain little but potentially embroil the country in a general war, not to mention enrage the fascist Iron Guard movement, who were already angry at the non-aggression pact with Soviets. For all that there were some positive outcomes, the Romanian government agreed to an exceptionally large arms deal with the New Entente, using French loans to buy Czechoslovakian armaments and Polish aircraft. This deal, aside from improving Romanian-New Entente relations also bolstered the internal relations of the Entente, by indirectly fixing one of the long standing economics complaints; the lack of French investment in Czech and Polish domestic industry. Yugoslavia however was distracted by events elsewhere although, as we will see later, this did not prevent them from lending a sympathetic ear to the French delegation.

    To round out central Europe we finish with Germany herself. On the surface the summer months weren't too bad for Germany, the Olympic Games were a popular success, the economy continued to grow and though the French still occupied the Rhineland the French ambassador had proposed talks to set a new permanent solution for the region. Behind the scenes however the government was in considerable trouble, the victories of Jessie Owens had enraged Hitler, the finance ministry was growing increasingly alarmed at the sums of MEFO bills issued to fund the rearmament and economic growth and the French offer of talks was seen as depressing proof that Paris held the advantage over them, particularly as the talks would be with the entire New Entente not just France. Despite this Hitler remained popular with the public, while the foreign failures had taken some of the lustre of his image there was still food in the shops and jobs to go to, important considerations for a population that had experienced so long when both had been scarce. It is also worth noting the efforts of Goebbels at the Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda which, rather than attempt to hide the truth of the Rhineland, presented the entire event as an evil French plot to crush innocent Germany and prevent her regaining her rightful place in the world. While successful in preventing a popular backlash at the failure it would create a rod for the German government's back, stirring up anti-French feeling and making re-occupying the Rhineland even more important. In contrast to the public the non-Nazi elements of the government were increasingly alarmed, believing Hitler was out of his depth on the world stage, the string of foreign failures the damning evidence. In such an environment success in Spain became even more important as did the need for a solid diplomatic success, a public demonstration of Germany regaining her standing on the continent. These two imperatives would shape the Reich's foreign policy, over-ruling almost all other concerns as her neighbours would soon discover.
     
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    Chapter LII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part III - The Balkans
  • Chapter LII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part III - The Balkans.

    While the latest bout of Franco-German posturing dominated northern and central Europe during the summer in the south of the continent everything revolved around Italy. The Italian defeat in the Abyssinian War had changed the strategic situation throughout the Balkans and the Mediterranean, from being a potential aggressor looking to expand her sphere of influence Italy had been transformed into a defeated nation with a shattered fleet and an economy in tatters. Yet it was not all bad, she remained a key trading partner in the region and it was acknowledged that the root of Italy's defeat was at sea; without the Royal Navy's dominance it was believed Italy could have triumphed, a not unreasonable conclusion given the vast numerical superiority of the Regio Esercito. Thus Italy's army retained some respect, if only for its still considerable size, and her diplomatic and economic influence did not completely vanish. It is no surprise then that May and June saw Il Duce launch a mass of diplomatic endeavours to try and rebuild the country's standing. In Albania a new series of 'economic' agreements were forced through under threat of bankrupting the Albanian government, these deals greatly increased Italy's effective control of the country. More significantly the Rome Protocols with Austria and Hungary were extended, the group signed the Three Powers Pact, forming a fascist counter-weight to the Little and New Ententes. The pact committed Italy to guaranteeing Austrian and Hungarian independence as well as containing ominous statements about establishing an even larger 'Danubian Bloc' as the dominant power in the region.

    The news was welcomed in Hungary, a strong alliance with Italy and Austria had been one of the major foreign policy objectives of Prime Minister Gyula Gömbös for years, the deal brought Hungary the advantages of Italian support without the threat of being dragged into war by Il Duce not to mention very beneficial trade agreements. Austria was equally pleased, Italian support was seen as the main bulwark against German designs on the country, moreover Italy could be guaranteed to support Chancellor Kurt Schuschnigg's desire to re-introduce conscription and rebuild the Austrian army, both clear breaches of the treaty of St. Germain. In Germany however the news was seen as yet another diplomatic failure, one that cut Germany away from her neighbours and the few other fascist states in Europe. Moreover the problem was explicitly Hitler's fault, specifically his mishandling of German-Hungarian relations. Barely two years earlier Hungary had attempt to align herself with Germany, Prime Minister Gömbös trying to engineer a 'Robbed by the Entente' alliance, both states supporting each others re-armament programmes and claims over lost territory. However Hitler had been unwilling to support Hungarian re-armament and demanded Hungary limit its claims to Czechoslovakia, even then the claims should in no way overlap with German demands for the Sudetendland. Obviously this was utterly unacceptable to Gömbös who was a supporter of the Greater Hungary movement, turned down by Germany he had turned to the more sympathetic Mussolini. For Konstantin von Neurath and his colleagues in the Reich Foreign Ministry this was yet another of Hitler's mistakes, alienating Hungary and failing to forge strong relations with either Austria or Italy. This would lead Hitler to give von Neurath a free hand in the region, an area he had decided to ignore in order to concentrate fully on efforts in Spain, the fruits of this decision would soon become apparent.

    If the rebuilding and strengthening of Italy's position with Austria and Hungary was due to reasoned and profitable negotiation then relations with Yugoslavia were defined by Mussolini's bombastic speeches, the work of the Italian foreign ministry being to lay the ground work for their leader to pronounce from. In a series of grand addresses he re-iterated Italian claims to the Dalmatian coast, listing many alleged crimes against the Italian minority in those regions and decrying the allied betrayal that had prevented Italy reclaiming her rightful territory along the Adriatic. While Il Duce, or more likely his speech writers, were careful not to make direct claims or threats the speeches were very well received, the Italian public accepting the vision as an Imperialism they could believe in. The Libyan colonies had not been popular, even pre-war, the public associated them with the decade long insurgency that Marshal Rodolfo Graziani had so violently crushed and a heavy financial burden, first on the army then on public works to 'Italianise' the Arab population. With so few Italians living in Libya there were many who were secretly glad the colonies were gone, hoping for lower taxes or more money to be spent on Italy proper. The Adriatic provinces were a different matter, a populist rallying call to liberate fellow Italians, right the injustices of the past and confirm the Adriatic as an Italian lake, as a sop to Imperialists bitter at losing Libya and a distraction for the masses it was undoubtedly a success.

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    Barely had Italy stabilised her position than Mussolini returned to his pre-War bombast as if nothing had happened. While undoubtedly popular, and hence good for Mussolini's ego, its main value was as a distraction, not only from the defeats in the Abyssinian War but also from the terrible economic position the war and surrender had left the country in.

    Naturally the speech was not welcome in Belgrade but neither was it a shock, almost all of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia's neighbours claimed some part of her territory, for decades the kingdom had been assailed by irredentist of all types, demanding repatriation of this or liberation of that. Italy's position had been clear since 1927, when Mussolini allowed the Croatian revolutionary nationalist Ante Pavelic to set up training camps in Italy. So Il Duce's claims were merely a more bombastic statement of what Yugoslavia had long suspected, the shock came from a follow up speech in Hungary in which Prime Minister Gömbös re-affirmed his vision of a Greater Hungary, for the first time explicitly included large areas of Yugoslavia in this expanded nation. This was interpreted as a co-ordinated effort by the two fascist nations, prompting much speculation as to exactly what else was agreed in the Three Powers Pact. Yugoslav paranoia was not unfounded, there were indeed 'secret protocols' in the Pact, committing Italy and Hungary to come to the aid of the other should a territorial war break out with Hungary. The protocols also outlined areas of control and guaranteed Hungary port facilities and basing rights on the Dalmatian coast. However suspecting the correct motives did not help the Yugoslavian government with how to react, because it was rapidly decided this latest threat could not be ignored and new, strong, allies were needed if Yugoslavia was to survive intact.

    The stark option was France or Germany, the historic ally verses the more recent economic partner. Those who hoped for both, or at least keeping both on side, soon discovered that allying with one would drive the other away, thus a choice had to be made. France was the obvious choice, Frano-Yugoslav friendship had a long history and the resurgence of France in Central and Eastern Europe made her a most worthwhile ally. Yet that very resurgence was the biggest downside, what Yugoslavia wanted was solid support from the other Little Entente nations and protection from Italy, what France was offering was membership of a complex web of relations, pacts and ententes which could get Yugoslavia involved in territorial disputes across the continent. There was no simple, limited commitment on offer, only a maze of commitments and obligations. The advantages of Germany were clear, the previous years had seen a string of trade pacts and economic deals that had greatly enhanced the Yugoslav economy, so much so that the German trade links had become a pillar of the economy and the driving force pulling the country out of the depression. Moreover there was common ground, German designs on Austria were well known and Mussolini was the single biggest obstacle to the much lusted after Anschluss, a unpalatable prospect the government was prepared to support in exchange for German protection. Against was the lack of a common border and the lingering fear that the Nazis would support their fellow fascists when push came to shove, not inconsiderable concern. Yet in the end it was the fear of France's web of alliances that won out, Yugoslavia was indifferent to the status of Danzig, yet by joining the New Entente it could drag the country to war. The German offer was at least a simple and limited, allowing Yugoslavia to focus on her borders not the other side of the continent, moreover German desperation for success in the endeavour lead von Neurath to offer even more generous trade terms, sweetening the deal still further. While some way short of a full alliance it was at last a success for German foreign policy, even if it was one born of an earlier defeat. Significantly however, it was von Neurath's success and Hitler's earlier failure, a point few in the German government failed to notice.
     
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    Chapter LIII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part IV - Southern Europe.
  • Chapter LIII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part IV - Southern Europe.

    The most important events in the south of the continent occurred in the nation that was most insular, despite all that happened around her Greece kept her own counsel and remained resolutely focused on domestic matters. Given the scale and frequency of the events rocking the country that is far from surprising, even identifying a start point for this chapter is far from straightforward, many of the issues had their roots in the Balkan Wars or even further back, before the Great War started. In the interests of brevity we will begin at the start of 1935, a year that would see Greece transformed from the Presidential Second Hellenic Republic into the restored Kingdom of Greece under George II, King of the Hellenes. This train of events began, ironically, with an anti-monarchist coup in March; former Prime Minister and political icon Eleftherios Venizelos attempting to topple the People's Party government of Panagis Tsaldaris, purely on the suspicion Tsaldaris had pro-monarchist views. Despite considerable support from several senior Greek Army Generals the coup was a failure, the aftermath forcing Venizelos to flee into exile in Paris and his most prominent supporters who remained behind tried and executed. The most significant outcome, besides Venizelos's Liberal Party being outlawed, was the army investigation commission that thoroughly purged the officer corps of any Venizelist or Republican officers.

    This 'purification' of the armed forces allowed General Georgios Kondylis, one of the key officers involved in crushing the March coup, to launch a successful pro-monarchist coup of his own in October. Far better planned and with the full support of all the armed services he was able to force the Prime Minister to resign and install himself as regent, pending a referendum on the restoration of the monarchy. The plebiscite was arranged and duly returned a massive majority, over 95% in favour on a turn out higher than at most general elections. However this result was hardly surprising given that voting was compulsory, the ballot was not secret and there was an oppressive army and police presence across the country and in every polling station. However the doubts and unhappiness about the validity of the vote were suppressed, King George II duly returning from exile on the 3rd of November to retake the throne he had been forced from a decade earlier. Much to the surprise of his opponents, but true to his word, General Kondylis then arranged for fresh elections on the 26th January of 1936 and the King symbolically unbanned the Liberal Party as a gesture of reconciliation towards the Venizelists. This gesture was not unappreciated, particularly as the King forced through a general amnesty of Venizelists over the wishes of Kondylis, who, ironically, found himself powerless after the restoration, the King appointing the well regarded Konstantinos Demertzis as interim Prime Minister. These gestures were a success as the still exiled Venizelos, the army having flatly refused to extend the amnesty to him, accepted that a third coup could be disastrous for Greece and instructed his party to enter into the elections in good faith, hoping to save his country further turmoil after a violent and turbulent year.

    The election had looked set to end in a three way tie between the previous Prime Minister Panagis Tsaldaris's centre-right People's Party, the resurgent centre-left Liberal Party under Themistoklis Sophoulis and the Moscow-funded Communist/Radical alliance of Nikolaos Zachariadis. This outlook changed rapidly as the rising tensions over Abyssinia became apparent, as Britain and Italy headed closer to war the issues of national security and foreign policy came to the fore, propelling the former Greek Army chief of Staff Ioannis Metaxas and his Freethinkers Party up the polls, their dire warnings about Italian aggression were seemingly proved correct with every action of Il Duce. The big losers were the Communists, the ever fractious Kommounistikó Kómma Elládas (KKE, Communist Party of Greece ) unable to decide whether the best reaction was rearmament, a Popular Front with the Liberals or to attempt a workers revolution. In the end they decided to do what they did best, expelling General Secretary Nikolaos Zachariadis (the seventh General Secretary to be expelled from the party in its short life) and dissolving into expelling 'reactionaries' and internal score settling. With infighting dragging the hard left alliance down and the Freethinkers remaining a minority party despite their high profile the election came down to the Liberal Party against the Popular Party

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    In stark contrast to the restoration referendum the general election was fairly organised, with secret ballots and the police and army kept in barracks not on the streets. While the Liberal Party was the largest party the People's Party vote had held up better than expected, the big losers were the communist KKE and the hard right Geniki Laiki Rizospastiki Enosis (GPRU, General People's Radical Union) of Generaly Kondylis.

    The results were perhaps the worst possible, Sophoulis was twenty one seats short of a majority and needed coalition partners, yet there were few natural allies in the new parliament. By pandering to the various agricultural parties he scraped together just over 140 seats but would need to include the hard left socialist and openly republican parties. However theses groups overplayed their hand, believing they could dictate terms they presented a vast list of demands that was unacceptable to both the Liberals and King George II, then when rejected their pride made them refused to back down. With all sides acknowledging the importance of having some government, especially after the start of the Abyssinian War, the King re-appointed Konstantinos Demertzis as interim Prime Minister and essentially kicked the issue into the long grass, doubtless hoping for a centre-right/Agrian/Other coalition to emerge given enough time.

    While such an alliance may eventually emerged, it was not given the time. The weeks after the election saw Greece rocked by a string of deaths among its leading lights; GRPU party head and coup leader General Kondylis succumbing to a heart attack in February, the exiled, sentenced to death but still influential Eleftherios Venizelos dying of a stroke in Paris in March and most dramatically the interim Prime Minister Konstantinos Demertzis also suffering a fatal heart attack on the 13th of April. As a further blow the People Party leader Panagis Tsaldaris was also on his death bed, eventually dying just over a month after Demertzis. With the country, the two main political parties and the armed forces faction all leaderless there was an immense power vacuum at the heart of Greek politics, a vacuum only the King was able to fill, practically and constitutionally. In this situation the prime requirement for being Prime Minister was not political support or statesmanship, it was being trusted by the King, a quality General Ioannis Metaxas had in abundance. A staunch monarchist, committed nationalist and dedicated anti-communist he had the qualities King George II most valued, more over it was believed his military experience would be vital should the Abyssinian War spread. As a politician his party was National Socialist in the original sense of the words; proud and patriotic on foreign and defence policies but naturally left leaning on the economic and social front. Thus he appealed to, and repelled, both the main parties in some way, making him almost a 'neutral' choice. Under Royal pressure, and with no better candidate becoming apparent, his elevation was agreed by parliament on the understanding it was strictly temporary, his term to last until the crisis was over and a permanent coalition assembled.

    Metaxas entered office on the 13th of April and the first few weeks went surprisingly well; The foreign ministry kept an impartial line on the conflict, despite sympathy towards Britain worries over Italian retribution should she emerge victorious dictated a neutral path. On the domestic front the focus on the war allowed policy to lag, which was useful as there was little chance of any policy getting through the divided parliament. Metaxas was able to slightly increase the defence budget, bringing forward planned modernisations in the army and accelerating the Navy's destroyer replacement programme, but his attempts to force through full scale rearmament faltered as he lacked sufficient support. This slight success marked the high water mark of Metaxas' time in office, as the war ended and the Treaty of Valletta was signed parliament turned it's thoughts to thanking Metaxas for a job well done but electing a more civilian leader, one capable of grappling with the economic and social issues of the country. While few doubted he had been correct over Il Duce's lust for war, it was believed that Italy was no longer a threat, or at least not a threat to Greece. With the Regia Marina devastated and the Italian Ionian islands transferred to Britain there was no immediate threat and hence no need for a military leader.

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    The Royal Hellenic Navy's Vasilefs Georgios class was one of the tangible outcomes of Metaxas' opening months in office. A modification of the Royal Navy G-class she was slightly slower but with a better secondary armament, mounting four heavy QF 1.5pdr 'pom-poms' in pace of the eight Vickers machine guns of the original. While in many ways a balance to the 1933 purchase of four Italian destroyers there is little doubt the choice of a British design was seen as significant, both domestically and internationally.

    The problem remained building a coalition, Metaxas' Free Thinkers Party stubbornly refused to back any coalition that didn't include Metaxas remaining as Prime Minister along with his allies in key posts, something obviously unacceptable to the far larger established parties. The possibility of a centre-left coalition built around the Liberals was undermined by the refusal of the socialists to compromise, particularly on the issue of accepting the restoration for at least one term. Thus a combination of royal support and a lack of alternative kept Metaxas in office but not in power, lacking a majority he was unable to introduce any new legislation or conduct anything but essential parliamentary business. This paralysis came at a most unfortunate time, the economic policies of previous years had began to bite and industrial and social unrest, patriotically suppressed during the war scare, was bubbling up. The root of these problems lay in the protectionist tariffs and weak Drachma policy pursued by both parties over the previous years, double edged swords that had kept the economy afloat but at the cost of a far higher cost of living. By making exports cheap and imports expensive Greek industry had not only survived the depression but expanded, keeping people in work but reducing their effective wages. Reversing the policies would slash the price of everyday goods but decimate domestic industries, the Bank of Greece assessments baldy stated the economy was 'Built on sand' and was utterly unable to compete in an open market.

    While all parties agreed something had to be done, no-one could agree what. The Liberals were ideologically committed to tariffs so proposed bolstering the Drachma, the People's party believed Greece lacked the currency reserves to strengthen the currency so wanted to slash tariffs, while the Agrian wanted steeper tariffs on foodstuffs to raise prices and slashed rates on the diesel, fertilisers and spares they imported. Metaxas' own preference sided with the Liberals, tariffs to protect national industries with a strong currency to reduce the price of other imports and as a symbol of national strength. The tentative co-operation over this issue, the addition of the Free Thinkers ten seats gave the Liberals' existing coalition a majority to push it through, was so successful that talks over a permanent coalition followed. Domestically there was agreement on many issues; an 8-hour working day, strengthened safety regulations and a social security fund were all common ground. An issue by issue coalition was assembled, the disagreements over the monarchy and bad blood from the Great War 'National Schism' were too deep-seated to allow a permanent deal. While a fragile government limping from vote to vote, always on the cusp of failing a vote of confidence was far from ideal, the parties involved believed it was infinitely better than no government at all.

    The problem for the new government was the extremists GPRU, the death of General Kondylis had deprived them of a leader, but also of a restraining force. Many of the party members had been involved in both the Monarchist coup and in 'supervising' the restoration referendum, for them Metaxas' co-operation with the Liberals was tantamount to betrayal of the army and the monarchy. Deprived of the calculating influence of Kondylis the parties angry members lashed out at their tribal enemies, the communists. The KKE, having purged itself of all moderate 'traitors' and uncommitted, naturally reacted violently, turning previously good natured strikes into bitter running battles, workers and KKE activist fighting the GPRU infiltrated riot police. The battles left Metaxas' government paralysed, while he believed in his social reforms he was unable to support the communists who were defending them. Equally he had great sympathy for the patriotism of the GPRU he could not support their reactionary violence and opposition to his work, moreover there was a practical problem - the only force capable of decisively suppressing the GPRU was the army, the very source of the much of their strength. As Metaxas' sat paralysed the frequency and intensity of the strikes, and associated violence, only increased as both sides rallied more support. By the autumn of 1936 it is no exaggeration to say Greece was a powder keg, the continuing industrial violence the ever shortening fuse.

    Before leaving the region it is worth mentioning the aborted Montreux Conference of July. This meeting was called by Turkey in an attempt to have part of the Treaty of Lausanne annulled, specifically Turkey wanted to re-fortify the Bosporus and to control shipping passing through the straits. The bargaining chip had been Turkish support for sanctions against Italy, however the rapid outbreak of the Abyssinian War had rendered that valueless. Moreover the issues was regarded as relatively unimportant given the other events in Europe, hence the conference had been pushed back almost indefinitely until 'the international situation settled'. Whatever the pragmatic merits of that view, and it had much to recommend itself to the over-stretched Foreign Offices of Europe, it was taken as a grave insult by Turkey. Although the practical effects were minimum, the Turks had already began to re-fortify the straits and only wanted international acknowledgement of their control of the straits, it was a blow to Turkish pride and taken as proof Turkey was seen as a second rate power. Efforts to assert Turkey's 'correct' position in the world would become a dominant theme of foreign policy, especially as the influence of the increasingly unwell President Mustafa Atatürk declined.
     
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    Chapter LIV: Fallout and Aftershocks Part V - Western Europe.
  • Chapter LIV: Fallout and Aftershocks Part V - Western Europe.

    It is a commonly held belief that the domestic problems for Sarraut began with the post-election general strike, an assertion that while technically not true is close enough. The strike itself had been arranged to go ahead regardless of the outcome, either to ensure the Popular Front followed through on it's manifesto or, as happened, to try and force Sarraut's Radicals to sign up to the same agenda. This presented Sarraut with a serious problem; bowing to the strikers demands would set a dangerous precedent, namely that it was they, not the government, that ruled France. Moreover it would likely cause a terminal split in the coalition, Flandin's centre-right Alliance Républicaine Démocratique (ARD, Democratic Republican Alliance) had indicated it could not support any demand when 'blackmailed' into it. Against this was the sympathy of many of Sarraut's Radicals with the demands, many of which were entirely reasonable, some even had the support of the less rabid ARD members.

    The negotiations began well, Sarraut rapidly conceding on the more moderate and least controversial demands, such as repealing the tax on veteran's pensions. Sarraut also conceded on the legal right to strike and support for collective bargaining, in reality small concessions that only acknowledge the situation on the ground, yet symbolically important and warmly welcomed across the left leaning media. Against such an offensive the union bosses found themselves backed into a corner, by drip feeding a constant line of concessions Sarraut had established the government as reasonable, and implicitly made them look greedy and pig headed for not making matching moves. Moreover time was not on their side; no preparations had been made for a long stand-off and it would not be long before ordinary members began to suffer if the strike continued. In the end it was decided that the progress on union rights and powers was enough, the concessions would put any future industrial action on firm legal ground and reduce the power of the state to intervene. While a long way from the grand aims of compulsory union inspectors in all firms or the maximum 40 hour week there was enough to justify calling the strike successful, at least to those with an eye on the long term and future negotiations.

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    André Delmas, director of one of the main French teaching unions and one of the Confédération générale du travail (General Confederation of Labour, CGT) representatives at the talk. As one of the 'new breed' of union men he had bee not taken part in L'union sacrée (the Great War 'Sacred Union' between government and trade unions) and, while no less of a patriot than his predecessors, was far more critical of pleas of national security.

    This tenuous deal left almost every party unsatisfied but, crucially, left them all equally unsatisfied and with some achievement or blocked reform to prove they had been tough on the big issues.The talks also did a great deal to reassure French industry, although compared to the likely outcome of even the best case Popular Front deal almost anything would have been viewed warmly by employers. While the more pigheaded still complained and delayed the majority accepted the concessions as fair and joining in with the prevailing mood of compromise. That said there were many issues still to be resolved, not least the 1936/37 pay round which would become a serious issues in the autumn, the government swapping the threat of a General Strike for the complexity of dozens of separate smaller agreements. It would be these later talks, conducted in a wildly different economic and political environment, that would begin the domestic problems that Sarraut is popularly remembered for.

    Turning to France's neighbours the Rhineland crisis had prompted a serious rethink in foreign policy, the quite unexpected turn of events had forced many governments to consider their long held positions. To begin with Belgium the summer saw something of a 'perfect storm' in the country, the May elections had seen the two main fascist parties; the mainly Walloon Parti Rexiste (Rexist Party) and their Flemish counterparts the Vlaamsch Nationaal Verbond (VNV, Flemish National Union). While there were deep divisions between the two, the VNV supported secession for Flanders and the formation of pan-Dutch state while the Rexists wished to "morally renew" an intact Belgian, the presence of two large fascist parties altered the balance of the parliament. Thus this large pro-German lobby was able to join forces with the Franco-phobic elements of the military and the isolationist mainstream to force through the official end of the Franco-Belgian alliance.

    While motives of this unholy alliance were wildly different it was a broadly popular move, many outside Parliament felt that the alliance was of little benefit to Belgium; the only threat to Belgium was Germany, if Germany invaded the French were going to join the war anyway so why risk being dragged into war somewhere else when you're getting the key benefit anyway? Cynical as that line of thinking may be it is hard to fault the logic, despite pleas from the Franocphone generals that ending the alliance would make co-operation far harder, the cold judgement was that the risk of France dragging the country into war over Eastern Europe was not worth the military advantage of official co-operation. For better or worse the country would pursue a policy "exclusively and entirely Belgian", a somewhat vague phrase that could, and would, cover a multitude of sins.

    In comparison the Netherlands was so rocked by internal problems that much of the events of the year passed the country by. Typical was the reaction to the Rhineland Crisis, Prime Minister Hendrikus Colijn telling the country they could "sleep safely" as there was nothing to worry about. That is not to say the government was unaware of the problems in Europe, just that there was a wide spread belief these problems would not spread to the Netherlands. The government's greatest concern lay in the Far East, while the Dutch East Indies were very valuable colonies they were not easy to defend, at least not without an outlay that would turn them into a net drain on the national treasury. Grappling with that issue, rather than the machinations of their neighbours, was the main foreign policy concern of the Dutch government for much of the early 1930s.

    In the domestic sphere things things were far more complex, the great depression had hit the country very hard with a great deal of social unrest and a small, but growing, fascist party emerging - the Nationaal-Socialistische Beweging in Nederland (National Socialist Movement in the Netherlands, NSB). The country's social problems, although mirrored across much of the rest of Europe and beyond, had a uniquely Dutch twist: the 'stigmatisation' policy adopted by successive governments. This principle essentially stated that any support payments to the unemployed would be at a subsistence level only, would come with a great deal of strings (the twice daily reports to government offices and compulsory home inspections were amongst the least popular) and be very obvious to the community so as to 'encourage' people back into work. While very popular in the country over the preceding decades the policy couldn't cope with mass unemployment, all the social pressure in the world couldn't force people into jobs that didn't exist. Naturally the system naturally became less popular the more people were exposed to it and were confronted by that fundamental flaw.

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    Hendrikus Colijn, leader of the Anti Revolutionary Party and Prime Minister of the Netherlands since 1933. A strict fiscal conservative, his balanced budget and strong Guilder policies extracted a terrible price from the Dutch economy.

    Economically the constrictions of maintaining a balanced budget, low tariffs and the Gold Standard were too much, any one alone would be damaging enough but all three took a terrible toll on the country, undoubtedly a factor in the length and depth of the Dutch Depression. With the Gold Standard keeping the Guilder uncompetitively high and crippling exports, the lack of tariffs exposing domestic industry to the full effects of the matching cheap imports. Even the shipping industry was suffering as their great advantage, retaining an intact fleet after the Great War, was turned against them; the old, pre-war Dutch fleet losing out to the newer, faster vessels of nations such as Norway who, having suffered heavy shipping loses, had built an efficient modern fleet. In such a situation the trade links with Germany, stretching back to before the Great War, became even more important to the country's economy. There can be little doubt that these links weighed on the cabinet as they determined their reaction to the changes in Europe: Germany had already put in place substantial tariffs on all imports to promote self-sufficiency, any further increases would be a body blow to the already struggling economy. Applied to the Rhineland Crisis this gave little incentive to act over a treaty the country hadn't signed, and very strong reasons not to anger Germany into action, the Dutch government determined that inaction was the best action.

    To complete this chapter we turn to Ireland, a country who's strict neutrality kept them an observer to the major international events but which nevertheless experienced a most turbulent summer. The root of the problem was Premier de Valera's decision to tear up the Coal-Cattle pact and restart the Anglo-Irish trade war, a conflict that could only end badly for Ireland. As tariffs on both sides were raised Britain barely noticed, beef importers returned to their Argentinian and Australian suppliers while the coal mines easily found new domestic customers as the Keyes Plan boosted demand in the economy. For Ireland however, things were far worse; cattle farmers suddenly found themselves without customers while the sudden hike in the price of coal hit the entire country with higher fuel costs. While the government tried to mitigate the damage were it could, paying a bounty on un-exportable calves and promoting the use of domestic peat to replace coal where possible, the damage was still severe. The problem was compounded by the continued collection of land annuities from farmers, the very cause of the original trade dispute between the two nations. Briefly from the 1880s onwards the British government had loaned money to Irish tenant farmers so they could purchase their farms, the loan were to be paid off in small amounts over several decades, all told over 10 million acres were assisted in part or full by the scheme.

    After de Valera unilaterally, and contrary to previous agreements, stopped transferring the money to the British he kept collecting it from the farmers, diverting it instead straight to the treasury, a move that did not win him many friends in the farming community. Indeed on a strictly financial basis the move made little sense, the value of the annuities was insignificant compared to the damage being done to the Irish economy and the resultant government spending on rural aid and benefits. All of this amounted to considerable problems for the government as their popularity plunged and extremists proliferated, bending the fact of the crisis to fit every political narrative. From the Communists declaring that only collectivisation could save the country, to extreme nationalists who claimed that it was all a British plot to re-conquer Ireland by stealth there was not a group that didn't try and make political capital from the crisis. The following months would see de Valera grow increasingly isolated as he attempted to find a way out of the conflict, all the while facing calls that he was putting personal pride before the good of the country, a charge he would struggle to convincingly rebut.
     
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    Chapter LV: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VI - Africa
  • Chapter LV: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VI - Africa

    It was common practice for Africa to be somewhat ignored by the foreign ministries and chancelleries of the world, certainly it was very much the bottom rung for aspiring civil servants in the field. The entire content was a mess of colonies, protectorates and puppets ranging from Algeria, which was considered an integral part of France, through to the handful of independent nations such as Liberia. Despite this all-pervasive colonial influence the concerns of Europe were not that of Africa, all corners of the continent having their own regional issues to concentrate on. Starting in the West the start of the Spanish Civil War was the most obvious issue, while the Monarchist side had rapidly gained control of the Spanish colonies in Equatorial Guniea, Western Sahara and Spanish Morocco their control was far from absolute. Tensions in the region remained high, memories of the Third Rif War were less than ten years old and with the Spanish Army of Africa being sent to the mainland the colonies were lightly garrisoned. The reaction of the administrators of French West Africa was to maintain a low level state of alert along the borders and particularly in French Morocco, while not as tense as their colleague's vigil over the French/Spanish border in Europe it would be maintained throughout the Spanish Civil War as a precaution.

    The other issue was the deterioration of Liberia, the nation had been through a most turbulent few years as the depression had hit the country harder than most. When granting the vast rubber concessions to the Firestone Tire and Rubber Company the nation had taken out a vast loan from the company in order to consolidate it's internal and external debt. While this had helped in the short term it had not solved the general high level of indebtedness, something not helped by the government's continued borrowing as the Depression deepened. Eventually the country was forced to enlist League of Nations support to repay the debt, with League observers in the government and controls spending and borrowing in exchange for cash assistance in meeting repayments. The crisis came in the summer when the government was unable to meet even this relaxed payment plan, to raise the funds it decided to vastly increase the export duty on the rubber plantations. For the Firestone management this was intolerable, after working for almost a decade to establish the plantation and waiting for it to mature the duties destroyed the business plan less than a year after they had finally started exporting. The high duties effectively meant they were producing rubber at a higher price than the Far East sources, even after allowing for the higher shipping costs from Malaya. After years of unilateral renegotiation, broken promises and constant low level corruption Firestone gave up, abandoning the operation and leaving the country, save for the small team left to work with the League of Nations to get their loan repaid.

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    The President of Liberia, Edwin Barclay. Much was expected of Barclay, after his predecessor had rigged the election (receiving 234,000 votes from an electorate of only 15,000) and been forced out over the Forced Labour scandal it was hoped a corner could be turned and Liberia established as a respectable state to do business with. President Barclay would sadly fail to live up such high hopes.

    While initially welcomed by the government, who saw an opportunity to re-lease the plantations and clear some of the debt, the problem was that no-one wanted the plantations; given the easy supply of rubber in the Far East from the British and French colonies there was little reason to risk operating in Liberia compared to the legally secure colonies. Worse the country had acquired a most unsavoury reputation after the Forced Labour scandal, a shameful episode almost as rich in irony as it was morally repulsive. Put simply the Liberian government had been involved in the systematic suppression and intimidation of the indigenous tribes, forcing them to work on various public works across the nation and in the Portuguese colonies. The League of Nation's investigation in 1930 had discovered widespread evidence of slavery, hidden behind the euphemism of "domestic servants" and of government involvement extending all the way up to the President's office. The irony of such events occurring in a country founded as a colony for freed slaves is almost too bitter for words, and on a practical level it certainly did it's part in driving out the foreign investors from many nations. The combination of moral repulsion, fear over the unreliable government and the sky high tariffs were sufficient to ward off any new investors in the rubber plantations, the lack of revenue pushing the Liberian economy into a nosedive. As the economic situation deteriorated it provided a focal point for all those opposed to the single-party system, not to mention attracting the attention of those powers who lacked access to the Far East and were less than fussy about how materials were obtained.

    South of the Zambezi the focus was very much on South Africa, the immediate question had been not who would win the election but how badly Barry Hertzog's National Party would lose it. That Herztog was in a position to lead the de-merged National Party into an election was surprising, not just because many believed he shouldn't have the leadership, but because even more believed he should be in prison for his actions. The main obstacles between Hertzog and prison were political but sprung from the practical; legally speaking the offence Hertzog could practically be charged with was treason, indeed given the country had been at war the correct offence was high treason. Given the high levels of tension in the country, and the fanaticism of the hard-core Boer elements in the country, putting the former Prime Minister on trial for high treason was considered a most unwise course of action by Smuts and the South African Party leadership. The political judgement was that a successful trial would turn Hertzog into a martyr and give him a nationwide platform to pontificate from, while a failed trial would be a disaster that would threaten to re-start the entire problem. As the case hinged upon whether Hertzog had actively worked against the crown, and he had been very careful to maintain a pretence of legitimacy, the issue was far from clear-cut, thus Smuts was reluctantly forced to let Herztog 'get away with it', legally at least.

    The reason he retained leadership of the party was far simpler: no-one else wanted it. The attempted coup, for that is what it was, had severely damaged the National Party, obliterating any hope of attracting the moderate Boer vote and causing even naturally loyal supporters to question the motives. There was more than enough blame to go around and merely changing the leader would not be enough to save the party, indeed it would only infuriate the hardcore elements who would see it as backing down. It was not a position any ambitious politician would wish to inherit and so Hertzog stayed, rallying the party's core vote and trying to prevent an utter rout by encouraging a high turnout of loyalists in the heartland, one last effort before slipping from the limelight after the election. The campaign, a relatively brief four weeks, produced no surprises; the National Party's 'referendum on freedom' campaign vanishing without trace outside their heartlands while Jan Smuts's South African Party candidates had but to turn up to see cheering crowds. The result was something of a formality, the National Party vote holding up in the Free State and Transvaal while the rest of the country returned South African Party, save for the handful of Labour Party MPs from the industrialised socialist strongholds.

    Yet for Smuts this landslide victory was the easy part, ascending to the Premiership he inherited the seemingly intractable issue of voting reform. Put simply it was realised by most that the system of selective suffrage was unsustainable in the long run, yet granting universal suffrage would inevitably lead to to the black majority dominating the elections and, it was widely believed, voting along tribal lines. Even for those that were prepared to risk going into perpetual opposition the prospect of a Zulu government, for the Zulus were the most numerous tribe, was enough to kill the idea dead; The Bambatha Rebellion was still fresh in the national memory, indeed there were still sitting MPs who had fought in the Anglo-Zulu War. The pre-hijack Representation of the Natives Act was an attempt to square that particular circle, enfranchising the Black majority but giving them a limited number of MPs to vote for. The long term challenge faced by the Smuts ministry would be to find a more lasting solution while still finding time to run the country.

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    Baron Lloyd, Secretary of State for India. He had been High Commissioner in Egypt during the 1920s and retained an interest in the region. He would be influential in supporting Dehli's ambitious attempt to gain influence across Africa and the Near East.

    Next we turn to the East of the continent where matters were somewhat simpler; everything revolved around the end of the Abyssinian War and the exit of Italy from the continent. In Abyssinia the end of the war was obviously a cause for celebration, but one tempered by the heavy human cost of the war and the extensive damage done to the country. The ill-equipped Ethiopian army had fought bravely but suffered horrendous casualties even before the Italians began using mustard gas, phosgene and worse. While the entry of Britain and the Dominions into the war had stopped the use of chemical weapons, the Italians having no wish to provoke a power with similar capability, they had already taken a terrible toll on the Abyssinian Army. Politically the Imperial House had been undermined by the defection of the Emperor's son in law, Haile Selassie Gugsa the Dejazmach (Guardian of the Gate), who had taken 1,200 of his followers and joined the advancing Italians days after the war broke out. With such turmoil in the higher echelons of society and the forces of law and order absent, the police having been drafted in militia and sent to the front, the British and South African contingent on the ground were in effective control of the country. This very much set the tone for the post-war situation, national pride aside the government acknowledged that Abyssinia would need significant support until the country could rebuild itself, with Britain the only realistic choice.

    The British position was somewhat complicated by the conflict between the Foreign Office and India Office, the former believing the matter was solely their domain while the latter claimed a stake in any matter around the Indian Ocean. The cautious Foreign Office was all for leaving the country to it's own devices while the ambitious empire-builders of the Indian Office wanted to extend Dehli's reach into East Africa. Naturally both extremes were untenable; Britain could hardly abandon the country, ignoring the moral case an unstable Abyssinia would destabilise the whole of East Africa. Equally there could be no question of taking over Abyssinia, for all the damage wrought to the country it remained proudly independent and would not easily acquiesce to giving up it's sovereignty, even if British and world opinion could somehow be made favourable to the idea. The natural outcome therefore was a compromise; Britain would guarantee the defence of the Abyssinia and provide assistance and advice in rebuilding, with the clear implication the advice would be infrequent but compulsory. It was also insisted upon that the sole benefit of the Italian invasion, the abolition of slavery, would be retained and be forcefully implemented by the government. That is not to say the relationship was entirely one directional, the British did offer the Abyssinian government a significant incentive for agreeing; a coastline. The former British territory of Jubaland had been transferred to Italy in the mid 1920s as reward for Italy joining the Great War, officially subsumed into Italian Somaliland it had been returned to Britain by the Treaty of Valletta. With it's sparse population it would provide Abyssinia with access to the Indian Ocean without any of the tribal problems a Somalian or Eritrean port would give. In government circles the deal was grudgingly welcomed, while the presence of British 'advisers' was less than ideal, for all the façade of assistance few doubted British influence would dramatically increase, the country would remain independent and her situation strengthened by gaining a port, a prize considered worth the short term sacrifices.

    Finally we turn to the North and to Egypt, where Cairo had been rocked by the death of King Fuad I and his replacement by a Regency Council until his young son Farouk came of age. Under the constitution the monarch held significant political power, actual day to day influence as opposed to the seldom used reserve powers of a constitutional monarch, making the members of the Regency Council important political players. King Fuad's original council was soon under intense pressure, the Egyptian parliament attempting to replace them with their preferred candidates, further destabilising the country. In Britain the entire matter was a cause of considerable concern, the young King was known to the British after his study at the Royal Military Academy at Woolwich and he had not made a good impression. Lazy, greedy and arrogant, the only thing keeping him in the academy was Foreign Office pressure to avoid a scandal and to preserve Anglo-Egyptian relations, even then his habit of petty theft would have got him thrown out eventually had he not been recalled home. The prospect of such a man on the throne of a country as strategically vital as Egypt was obviously unwelcome, especially due to his decidedly ambivalent attitudes to the Italian invasion. Thus it was that the Indian and Foreign Offices found themselves in complete agreement, Farouk could not be allowed to rule and stability would have to be restored, once again Britain would have to intervene and install a more pliant monarch on the Egyptian Throne. Naturally a blatant move, as with the removal of Abbas II during the Great War, would not be a wise move as Egypt was notionally independent, so the strategic cunning of the Indian Office experts was called upon.

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    The death of King Fuad would be an opportunity for the many factions in Egypt to jockey for power. In the high stakes manoeuvring that followed the British would use the techniques honed over decades of manipulating the princely states and factions of the Raj. It was a most uneven matchup.

    Playing upon the ambitions and egos of the Regency Council a reform of the constitution was proposed, to remove the very real power struggle between King and Parliament by increasing the powers of the Prime Minister at the cost of making the monarch more ceremonial. Naturally this played well with Council, composed as it was of three former Prime Ministers who entertained ideas of returning to that office, and was naturally welcomed by the Parliament for the same reason; men never turn down the opportunity of more power for themselves. When the young King was informed, 'unfortunately' in the most tactless way possible, he refused to even contemplate the idea, setting himself on a collision course with the political elite that could only end badly for him. During the following wrangling, which the British representatives made themselves conspicuously absent from, a new constitution was agreed by Parliament that deposed King Farouk and replaced him with his younger sister Princess Fawzia. The appointment of the fourteen year old girl as Queen was both a symbolic gesture, breaking the male line of succession showed that the monarch ruled at Parliament's pleasure, and a cynical choice, choosing a candidate unable to speak out until the new constitution had been firmly established. It also had the effect of splitting the Nationalists, a Queen was very popular with the large female contingent in the movement but an anathema to the religious hardcore at the heart of the movement. Any position on the matter had to be so full of caveats and qualifications, to avoid offending part of the movement, as to render it meaningless. This only added to Nationalist woes, already angry that the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty had been cancelled (indeed never signed) their demand for independence had been undermined by the Abyssinian War. It was obvious Egypt would not have been able to defend herself and had depended upon Britain for survival, that the Italians had advanced no further than Sidi Birrani and that no Italian plane had crossed into Egypt proper had been noticed and approved of by the public. The Nationalist's were left trying to explain how they would have have stopped chemical weapons getting to East Africa without provoking Italy into war, an impossible task and one that did little for their reputation as a serious political movement.

    Before leaving Africa we must briefly cover Italian North Africa, although in truth there is little to say. The final Italian defeat had been so rapid that the first much of the country knew of it was when a British patrol appeared in their village rather than an Italian one. The British position was quite simple; to install the exiled Emir Idris as monarch of a united Libya, merging the three provinces of Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan into a single country to be ruled by the pro-British Idris. After the decimation of the population by the Italian 'pacification' campaigns of the 1930s the country was sparsely populated and, undeveloped outside the coastal cities. Worse the Italians had focused on 'pacifying' the educated elite, leaving the country desperately short of almost every kind of professional from doctor to engineer to teacher. As with Abyssinia an arrangement was reached, British advice and support on rebuilding the country and a guarantee of protection while domestic matters were solely an internal Libyan matter. This did not come without strings of course, it was expected that certain key military bases would remain in British hands on indefinite lease and it went without saying that any foreign firms hired for reconstruction would be from Britain or her Empire.

    Given the clearly stated goal of independence for the country, and the support of the respected Emir Idris, who had led the guerilla campaign against the Italian occupation, the plan was popular among ordinary Libyans and was easily implemented. While much of the plan was ill-defined in particular the exact constitutional position of the King was vague and there were few details on how the provinces would be represented, it did provide a base to start from, allowing a stretched Foreign Office to focus elsewhere while the Libyans sorted their own problems. However only time would tell what would happen once the gratitude at liberation from Italy faded and ambitious rulers began to look beyond domestic politics.
     
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    Chapter LVI: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VII - The Middle East
  • Chapter LVI: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VII - The Middle East

    We begin on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, specifically the British mandate of Palestine and the Trans-Jordan. The history of this region is long complex and controversial, any proper attempt to convey it would involve going back to before the Great War, delving into the machinations around the decline of the Ottoman Empire. It is therefore clearly considerably beyond the remit of this work, for those interested Dr. Abdul Tibawi's seminal work "Palestine - Mandate to Dominion" remains an excellent starting point for what is a very involved subject. Limiting ourself to that which is most relevant we will begin by noting that the entire Palestine and Trans-Jordan Mandate was not a high British priority. On first glance that would appear a misguided statement, the early 1930s had seen a flurry of paper about Palestine; the Shaw Report, the Hope-Simpson Commission and the Passfield white paper all being produced. Yet, as any student of British politics learns, a problem's importance is generally inversely proportional to the number of Reports, Commissions and White Papers issued on the subject, especially if the issues is complex and controversial. With that knowledge it is easy to explain why such vast volumes of paper produced so little action, the reports mainly re-stated existing policy. Greatly simplified that policy was essentially to find a way to balance the Balfour Declaration and the Great War pledges on Palestine, Britain was thus committed to about establish a Jewish national homeland in a Palestine, which she was also committed to being independent and under Arab rule. The British solution to the conundrum had been to ignore it, allowing Jewish immigration as a sop to the Zionist lobby while using the office of High Commissioner to keep the Arab elite in line through patronage. This policy had been at best a limited success, while most had grudgingly accepted the promise of latter progress, the clashes between the Jewish immigrants and native Arabs had seen a string of riots throughout the 1920s and motivated extremists on both sides to form armed gangs to advance their cause. The one change introduced, a limit on Jewish immigration to levels the economy of the Mandate could cope with, had somewhat calmed the situation but entirely failed to deal with the root of the problem.

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    Colonel T E Lawrence. His return to the Middle Eat was low key, but he retained the fame and political connections that would serve him well in advancing his cause.

    The outbreak of the Abyssinian War was a mixed blessing, as the country was flooded, relatively speaking, with the overflow of troops the Egyptian ports and camps couldn't cope with. While the absolute number of troops was fairly small, a handful of battalions at most, their effect was magnified by the low population of the Mandate. With tensions rising following the death of the Black Hand terrorist leader Sheikh al-Qassam, the extra troops had kept the marches and protest from becoming riots and maintained order when the local police were in danger of being swamped. Yet the troops had not solved anything, the death of al-Qassam was a trigger not a cause, a singularly ineffective terrorist he had only achieved influence in death as a focal point for existing popular discontent. Sadly this was overlooked, deliberately perhaps, by the High Commission which instead believed the troops had stopped, rather than delayed, trouble boiling over onto the streets. On the other hand the temporary growth of the Trans-Jordan command was not without it's long term benefits, in amongst the troops marshalling was a certain Lieutenant-Colonel Thomas Edward Lawrence, Lawrence of Arabia. Recalled to active duty in the rush to war he had naturally gravitated to a role in the Mandate, working as a liaison between the military, the High Commissioner's Office and the Foreign Office, his progress doubtlessly helped by his fame and his time working as Churchill's advisor in the early 1920s. Officially concerned with securing the transit and acclimatisation camps in the region Lawrence soon began pushing his remit, arguing only a long term solution would provide security. While far from successful he did manage to work himself into the existing hierarchy to such an extent that when the army left, he stayed behind, joining the mixed bag of British officers attached to the Mandate's military office. It would be a frustrating few months for those on both sides arguing for a permanent settlement in the region, not until the tensions finally erupted onto the streets would the issue make it's way to the offices of Whitehall.

    Leaving the Mandate we head along the Al Hadithah pipeline, leaving behind the port and tankers of Hafia to the vast oil fields of Kirkuk. In contrast to Palestine the situation in Iraq during the late summer was, correctly, considered well under control by both the Foreign and India Offices. The transition from mandate to independence had gone smoothly and the country was believed to be relatively stable, indeed as the Kirkuk fields were finally brought on stream it was believed the country could be on the brink of entering a very prosperous age. The key to this fine situation was the involvement of the Iraqi government in the oil business, a long held British policy that had only been possible in the early 1930s due to the Great Depression. Taking advantage of the utter collapse of the US economy and the resulting weakness of the Near East Development Corporation (the US overseas oil consortium led by Jersey Standard) the British government had brought out the NEDCs 23.7% stake of the Iraqi Petroleum Company and sold it on to Iraqi investors. The irony that the shares the US government had fought so hard for were being sold before production even started was bitterly appreciated by the selling NEDC consortium members, but the offer of hard cash in a depression was too good to turn down. Equally while the move was recognised as a blatant British patronage, the shares had gone via the British government purely to ensure they could be distributed to the right kind of pro-British Iraqi, it was no less effective for that. The fallout of early 1936 served to strengthen the British position; the Abyssinian War had shown the benefits of having British military muscle in support, while the change in Monarch in Egypt encouraged the Iraqi parliament to assert itself further. The big benefit though was to remind the new monarch, the anti-British King Ghazi that the crown was not necessarily his for life; his father had only come to the Iraqi throne by plebiscite, and with implicit British support. For all his arrogance and pretensions to grandeur his position was precarious should be go against the civil government, public opinion or the British, all things he had contempt for but was made to realise he had to work with.

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    The Kirkuk Oil Field. After a prolonged delay in development, mainly driven by the desire of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company and Royal Dutch/Shell to exploit their other reserves first, the sale of the NEDC stake to Iraqi investors prompted a massive expansion in both output and pipeline capacity. This sudden influx of wealth not only stabilised the country's finances but funded a massive programme of public works and employment projects throughout Iraq.

    Before leaving the region it is instructive to consider Saudia Arabia, particularly the case of Harry St. John Philby. It is an example of the growing power of the India Office in the region and the stark difference between their approach and that of the Foreign Office. Philby was an ex-Colonial Officer who had become the senior advisor to Ibn Saud, in the course of this he had, in the words of his former superiors, 'gone native'; converting to Islam, taking a new name and a new Arabian bride. Embittered towards his own country for spurning his advice and vision of a vast Arabian kingdom under the Sauds he spent much of the 1930s working towards that goal, and against British interests, while taking care to cloak that desire with mis-direction and platitudes. Such an approach worked well with the Arabian Desk of the Foreign Office, in a service renowned for a somewhat idealistic view of the desert those on the Arabian desk were the true believers, prepared to ignore almost any evidence if it fitted with what they wanted to hear. In stark contrast the India Office's Western Affairs Bureau, the Byzantine world of Whitehall's inter-departmental politics forbid them from actually admitting to having an Arab Desk of their own, results were the key measure, how they were achieved or even why were less important. To these gentlemen the fact that Philby had left British service and been employed by Ibn Saud to benefit Saudi alone was beside the point, as a British subject and ex-colonial minister they expected him to work for British interests, or at the very least not work against them. Having rapidly seen through the talk to the actions beneath, the India Office determined they had to remove him and replace him with someone to bring Ibn Saud back into line, again the fact he was employed by a notionally sovereign monarch and had no official duty to Britain was not considered a barrier to action. Investigations soon revealed a vague link between his son in Britain and a group of Soviet sympathisers at Cambridge, this was rapidly talked up into a serious espionage matter and was presented in the most skewed manner to the Saudia ambassador. For Ibn Saud, his faith in Philby shaken by the collapse of the oil exploration deal with Standard Oil of California (a victim of the same US oil crisis that saw the NEDC sell up in Iraq) and the humiliation of crawling to the British to negotiate a new oil deal, this was the final straw that saw Philby expelled from his service and the country.

    The significance of the matter lies not with the particulars but with the general trend; the replacement of a generation of romantic Arabists with hard nosed professionals, an attitude that was far more critical of Arab nationalism and more focused on consolidating and extending British interests and influence. This stance set the India Office on a collision course with the Foreign Office over Middle East policy and planning, not to mention exacerbating the long running row over spheres of influence. The challenge in the Middle East, as in so much of the rest of the world, would be to balance the two offices' views; championing British interests while keeping local and world opinion on side; A delicate balancing act not helped by the growing rivalry between the two ministries.
     
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    Chapter LVII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VIII - India and the Far East
  • Chapter LVII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part VIII - India and the Far East

    Given the foreign machinations of the India Office in the period, causing some to revive the old charge of Dehli trying to build an Empire inside the Empire, it is tempting to believe the situation in the Raj was stable, after all if things were not then surely the India Office would have been focused on their main area of responsibility. In the strictest terms that was correct, the failure of the Government of India Act to pass had very little immediate impact; the majority of the country remained quiet, save for the always rumbling North West Frontier, while the Act had been returned to the Committee stage and vanished into the bowels of the Palace of Westminster. Thus there was no practical imperative to act while affairs in Arabia demanded immediate action if the India Office was to extend it's reach. While such reasoning was correct it missed the obvious fact that, for all the failings of the Act, there was a clear need for some form of constitutional reform in India. Moreover there was a need for Britain to regain control of the situation; the previous decades had seen a string of Government of India Acts, none of which had provided more than a few years of stability before renewed calls for reform.

    Perhaps it was this very lack of progress that prompted the mandarins to prioritise Arabian adventures over their titular responsibilities, preferring the glamour and prestige of expanding their influence over the grind of constitutional negotiations. It is also worth noting the attitude of the Secretary of State, Baron Lloyd, picked as a true die hard by Churchill he had little appetite for anything that even resembled progress towards Indian Home Rule, a view that would be reflected in his departments actions, or lack therof. Thus it was that the Act remained in the limbo of committee, enabling the government to say it was working on the matter while actually doing very little. The situation was not helped by the summer recess of Parliament, halting what little work had been done until well into the Autumn by which point events in India would have rendered much of the deliberations academic.

    Finally in this tour of the world we come to Japan, a nation that had a fairly quiet summer in international terms. However the surface tranquillity masked a deep and divisive row at the very heart of the government and the armed forces, a battle to determine the path of the nation. The disagreement was not so much over the aim, all agreed Japan had to be recognised as a Great Power, expand her Empire and aquire secure sources of raw material, but how to achieve those aims and who the greatest threat to Japan was. Broadly speaking the conflict can be seen as part of the ongoing Army-Navy war for control of Japan, although as always it was not quite as clear cut, sub-factions on both sides supported conflicting views for political or ideological reasons. It is worth noting first that both sides, on the whole, agreed with the step-by-step approach to China, provoking small conflicts and establishing loyal puppet states rather than full-scale war. Rather than outright conquest and occupation, which even the most optimistic and prejudiced military officers admitted would be difficult, Japanese policy was for a loyal and supportive Chinese government(s) that would take directions from Tokyo, provide raw materials and act as a vast market for Japanese exports. The disagreements was instead over North or South, the Soviet Far East or South East Asia, the two factions having applied their own priorities to reach the most beneficial conclusions.

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    Japanese Prime Minister Admiral Keisuke Okada. The complex constitutional arrangements of Japan gave the armed forces a veto over the government, essentially the Prime Minister had to resign if he didn't have a full cabinet and both the Army and Navy nominated one cabinet minister each. If either service refused to propose a candidate, or made the current minister resign, the government would fall. Thus Okada, despite his military rank, would have to walk the same fine line as his predecessors in keeping both services on side to remain in office.

    The Navy led Strike South doctrine started from the simple fact that South East Asia was one of the richest resource areas in the region. Containing vast amounts of oil, rubber, exotic materials and metallic ores control of the region would secure a large part of Japan's raw material supply. The European powers already occupying the region were considered a secondary threat compared to the expected US reaction, even if the Americans were prepared to see the Dutch and British expelled from the region and replaced by Japan (considered unlikely in naval circles) the Philippines would become a Pacific Malta, able to dominate the region and hold a knife to Japan's supply lines by its mere presence. Therefore the Strike South group had the United States as the expected primary enemy and demanded a large scale investment in the Fleet to ensure naval supremacy while minimising the role of the army. To further this aim a great deal of effort had been extended in the 1920s and early 30s by the Navy Japan's South Pacific Mandate was heavily developed with much effort expended into converting key islands into 'unsinkable aircraft carriers'. There was also a concerted effort by the Colonial Ministry ad the larger business conglomerates to expand the economy of the entire region, attempting to increase raw material production and promote the 'Japanisation' of both the Mandate and the surrounding islands, efforts not unnoticed by the other powers in the region.

    Conversely the North Strike doctrine started by assuming the primary enemy, the Soviet Union, and working from there. While the Strike South group had, as described above, held sway for much of the post war period the army had retained its focus on Russia, if only because it was a threat to justify increased spending on their service. The early 1930s however had seen the Soviets re-emerge as a genuine threat, the various border incidents with China over the Chinese Eastern Railway (CER) had demonstrated the effectiveness of the re-organised Soviet Far Eastern forces (including the classically Soviet Special Red Banner Far Eastern Army). Moreover the Soviet Five Year Plans had expanded the industrial facilities and extractive operations throughout the region, prompting the Japanese Army to present the Soviet Far East as a treasure trove of resources to match the vaunted Dutch and British colonies, a wild exaggeration but not without a grain of truth. However it was not until the mid-1930s that the Army began to build a strong case as the Japanese began to expand towards the borders of the Soviet Union and Moscow flexed it's muscles to assert her influence.

    The turning point was probably the establishment of the puppet regime of Manchukuo, quite aside from giving Japan an effective border with the Soviet Union it started a tense stand off with the Soviets over their control of the CER. Having fought off Chinese attempts to seize it in 1929 Moscow was in no mood to surrender control to Japan and negotiations were tense, a string of fatal 'incidents' in the disputed region testified to the stakes. While the matter was eventually resolved by Japan buying out the Soviet interest (technically the Manchukuo government, but the funds came from Tokyo) the episode rocketed the Soviets up the list of priorities for all services, particularly after the Politburo re-established the Soviet Pacific Fleet as a standing force. Given the epic effort involved, whole flotillas were disassembled and transported on the Trans-Siberian Railway, together with the supporting coastal artillery and naval aviation deployed it was a strong statement of Soviet commitment to the Far East. This was only reinforced by the deployment by the Soviets Air Force of the vast four engined Tupolev TB-3 bomber to Vladivostok, an aircraft theoretically capable of just bombing Tokyo from the eastern most Soviet air strips. The previously comfortable Japanese assumption that any action would be contained to mainland Asia was under-mined at a stroke, the complete lack of any other meaningful target meant the bombers could only be used against Japan prompting a serious re-appraisal of the Soviet threat by all the services, not just the Army. This review had just been completed prior to the Abyssinian War.

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    The Tupolev TB-3 bomber, one of the first four engined heavy bombers in the world. Although plagued by design flaws, poor build quality and terrible tolerances to such an extent that sequential aircraft could weight over a tonne more or less it was still an effective bomber. With a theoretical range of over 2000km, more for the lighter airframes, Tokyo was just within range of a fully loaded TB-3 based in Vladivostok.

    1936 had begun with the Strike South group in the ascendency, the revelation that the US had not built to her Naval Treaty limits, indeed had pressed for far lower tonnage limits at the aborted London Naval Conference, was a most pleasant surprise. When the Abyssinian War broke out and the Royal Navy stripped the Far East of ships there was even a drive amongst the more belligerent members of the naval staff to push ahead with the invasion using the preliminary plans. Naturally wiser and cooler heads prevailed, the enemy may have been distracted but Japan was nowhere near ready, however the Navy's plans were definitely in the ascendency, much to the Army's annoyance. This position lasted until the Royal Navy efficiently and rapidly devastated the Regia Marina, while the IJN shared the general low regard for the Italians, the Naval Staff was forced to admit they may have under-estimated the quality of opposition the Royal Navy would provided. With the Royal Navy rated as more than just a speed bump and, after the Treaty of Valletta, much of the fleet returning in force to Singapore, the option on an immediate Strike South lost supporters who saw it as too risky in the short term. This was supported by the changing opinion of America where, it was believed, the continuing economic crisis would force the country to continue selling oil, steel and anything else Japan required as the US could not afford an embargo. Certainly it was thought that time was on Japan's side, as the naval programmes churned out newer and larger ships the US Navy's fleet stayed rotting at anchor with nothing even on the drawing board. With the raw material sources believed to be secure, as long as the US stayed in a depression, there was no desperate need to conqueror South East Asia save for the territory itself. Thus the Strike South groups main advantage, immediate resources, became less relevant and it came down to a simple question, who would be easier to defeat and bring to the table; the Soviets or the British and Dutch. It was believed by many high up in government the answer to that question would determine which way Japan's foreign policy faced for the coming years, thus making the fact it would be low ranking junior officers and a string of unexpected events that decided the policy all the more ironic.
     
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    Chapter LVIII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part IX - The United States of America.
  • Chapter LVIII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part IX - The United States of America.

    Leaving the intrigues of the East behind us we come to the Americas, two continents that contain the full spectrum of reactions and consequence to the summer's events. From the indifference of Uruguay to the vast changes in Newfoundland the events of the summer provide an insight into the links, or in many cases the lack of links, between the continents. We start in North America with the United States a nation that fell somewhere between the two extremes. The biggest impacts were the first implementations of the Neutrality Act and the formal abandonment of US interests in the Treaty of Versailles. The former revealed significant holes in the Act while the latter was further proof that the concerns of Europe were not those of the United States. Considering the 1934 Neutrality Act first, it is unsurprising that such a hasty piece of legislation should contain so many flaws. Rushed through to meet the 1934 mid-term elections, it was framed in terms of political advantage rather than practical application, legislation that gave congressmen something to boast off on the campaign trail rather than giving the President a useful foreign policy tool. The flaws rapidly became apparent after President Alfred Smith invoked the Act during the first stages of the Abyssinian War, applying sanctions to both Italy and Abyssinia and preventing the sale of 'all types of arms and ammunition to both belligerents'. This embargo, combined with a very public re-statement of the 'Lusitania clause' (which warned all US citizens that they travelled on liners of combatants or vessels entering war zones at their own risk), was expected to prompt a massive fall in vessels departing for Italy, as liners stopped running and merchantmen sought out new ports.

    In fact, much to the consternation of isolationist politicians, shipping boomed. Abyssinian didn't even have a coast, let alone a navy, so the ocean liner passengers continued to travel while many a savy US merchant pitched wares that, though neither weapons nor ammunition, were most certainly useful to a nation at war; oil, 'mining' explosives and industrial equipment of all types. Indeed attempts were even made to sell production rights to everything from rifles to fighters, the sale of plans and blueprints having not been mentioned in either the Act or the embargo. Given the poor state of certain areas of the Italian military it is quite possible that only Mussolini's belief in national self-sufficiency and Autarky prevented the Italian's from purchasing at least some of those manufacturing licences. Fortunately for the President and Congress the Italian declaration of war on Britain prevented further embarrassing breaches of the embargo, Britain declared a blockade and the Royal Navy promptly sealed the Suez Canal and the Straits of Gibraltar to Italian bound shipping.

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    The British naval base at Gibraltar once again proved it's inestimable value during the Abyssinian War. Serving as base for the western end of the British blockade the vessels based there were at the centre of the usual controversy over neutral trading rights during a blockade.

    There was, of course, a formal US complaint about the British blockade, issued to protect the general principle of unfettered US trade rather than any problems with the specific actions, but this masked the considerable confusion in both the White House and Congress. While all believed the US should be able to trade with who it wished it was also recognised that only British actions had actually enforced the intent, rather than the technical wording, of the Neutrality Act. Thus complaints were muted and limited to the exceptionally small anti-British interventionist groups, those who believed the US should intervene more on the world stage and do so against Britain and/or in favour of fascist Italy. That said the Abyssinian War embargo was extended to cover the British Empire and the Dominions, although as the British Ambassador to Washington commented 'Given what the Royal Navy blockade is seizing at Gibraltar, it is hard to believe the United States has embargoed anything at all.'

    The obvious solution for the isolationists was a revised Act, one that included not just arms and ammunition but all war making equipment and material in all forms. The new Act drew on the lessons of the Abyssinian embargo and banned a great many items specifically along with the more general embargo on 'war making material'. Despite the obvious disruption caused by the assassination of President Smith in March the Act was approved, passed and signed into by the newly promoted President Garner in late June, almost two months after the Abyssinian War had ended. It was however passed in time for the escalating Spanish Civil War, or would have been if the Act covered civil wars, which it did not. Despite this revelation of yet another loop hole there was little outcry, the country was deep into convention season and politicians of all parties were more concerned with who the Presidential candidates would be than 'Another European war'. This disinterest was helped by the two factions in Spain being beholden to their backers, the Republicans to France and the Soviet Union and the Monarchists to Britain and Germany, all of whom made sure it was their factories that got the war orders, not American ones. This meant there was very little trade to actually embargo, making a revised Act a symbolic gesture that neither party had the time or interest to make.

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    John Jakob Raskob, Secretary of State under President Al Smith. Owing his position to his support of Smith's run for office and his former role as Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Raskob was not a foreign policy expert and had focused the efforts of the State Department on the Americas at the expense of the rest of the world. Given such a view it is understandable that after President's Smiths assassination and the side lining of former Vice-President Garner by the party's souther hierarchy Raskob was more concerned with domestic politics and survival than events in Europe and beyond.

    Taking the second point, the lack of reaction to the stand off over the Rhineland, this was perhaps more symbolic than practical. As a signatory the United States was notionally committed to enforcing Versailles and thus had made token diplomatic responses to the various breaches in previous years, however the Rhineland Crisis marked the point where even that effort was stopped. It was, perhaps, the most honest approach, main stream public and political opinion could see no realistic circumstances under which the US should involve herself in the affairs of Europe, thus continued diplomatic protests with no conviction or interest behind them merely undermined the status of a State Department statement. On that point it is interesting to contrast that approach with that of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, which continued to issue statements and notes on affairs in Europe on the flimsiest of pretexts, persevering in the belief that such pronouncements were a vital part of being seen and treated as a 'Great Power'. From that viewpoint the US silence was interpreted as a disinterest in being seen as a Great Power, a view with a not inconsiderable measure of truth. Americans being more than happy to forgo the 'prestige' of foreign adventures if it meant avoiding the other, less desirable, side effects of such actions. The candidates for both President and Congress therefore focused themselves on the many domestic issues the country faced, foreign policy fading to little more than a sideshow to the economic and social issues of the day.
     
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    Chapter LIX: Fallout and Aftershocks Part X - Canada and Newfoundland.
  • Chapter LIX: Fallout and Aftershocks Part X - Canada and Newfoundland.

    Turning to the north we consider Canada, another country grappling with domestic questions that trumped all foreign policy concerns. Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King had returned to office for his fourth term in October 1935 and had inherited a country recovering from dire economic straits; Canada had been hit harder than any nation in the world, bar the United States. While the economy had bottomed out in 1932, helped by the large scale government investment and welfare programmes, this had merely stopped things getting worse rather than improving the situation. It was therefore unfortunate that the then Conservative Prime Minister, Richard Bedford Bennett, chose that point to worry about the growing deficit and decided to 'balance the books' by slashing government spending. While Bennett tacitly admitted his mistake three years later, by restoring and extending the original programmes, by then it was too late and he had sealed his party's electoral fate.

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    Former Canadian Prime Minister Richard Bedford Bennett. Elected due to the failure of Mackenzie King's Liberals to accept that the Great Depression was not a temporary aberration, Bennett led Canada through the depths of the Depression. Though primarily remembered for his anti-communism, his hard line policy earning himself the nickname 'Iron Heel Bennett', his export orientated economic policies would provided Canada's route out of the Depression. Sadly for Bennett the boost in exports would not filter through to the wider economy in time to stave off defeat in the 1935 general election.

    For all the mistakes of Bennett his policies of the early 1930s were just beginning to filter through by the time of King's election, though no doubt they would have worked far faster had Bennett stuck to his guns and not lost his nerve. The Canadian recovery, slow and tentative though it was, had it's base in the recovery of exports, particularly the vital food and raw materials that had been a corner stone of the Canadian economy. This success though raised the first serious headache for King; Imperial Preference. While Bennett's Conservatives had naturally favoured it King's Liberals were supportive of free trade, or at the very least equal tariffs, and thus ideologically receptive to the constant US requests that Canada 're-consider' it's Empire Free Trade policy. The problem came that the exports that were lifting the economy out of the Depression were not to the ravaged and impoverished United States but to the British Empire. While 'free trade' would undoubtedly benefit the US, that was why they were so heavily pushing it, it was widely believed that it was only Imperial Preference that had saved Canada, along with Australia and the other Dominions, from suffering a balance of payments crisis and defaulting on her debts. Making the leap from the British policy that had arguably saved Canada's economy into the unsteady arms of United States was at best risky, at worst catastrophically foolish. There was also the political dimension, it was widely felt, with considerable justification, that Canada had only suffered so badly in the Depression because she was so close to the US. Logically therefore a policy that would tie Canada even closer to the country perceived as the source of the problem was widely opposed, particularly if that meant loosening ties with Britain, relations with which were riding high on a post-war jingoistic wave.

    Thus practicality and politics convinced King that he should not waste his political capital on an unpopular and counter-productive policy, particularly when he believed there were more pressing social issues. Thus he poured his effort into new social and economic assistance programmes, populist programmes such as the National Housing Act and the National Economic Commission, schemes to provide social housing and small scale loans respectively. In one of fate's many ironies these schemes were similar to ones that King had refused to implement when the Depression started at the end of his previous term, refusals that, when combined with his indifference to the crisis and insistence that it would soon pass, probably cost him the 1930 election. While King would never be enthusiastic for Imperial Preference, both through ambivalence to the Empire and ideological belief, his decision to put practical benefit before ideology would see Canada build stronger links with the rest of the Empire, replacing the American links lost during the Depression. These links remain a key pillar of the Canadian economy to this day, testament to their strength and importance.

    At the end of the concerns was the Canadian military, this is not an oversight rather a comment on the sad state of the armed forces. Having experienced the same 'drawing down' after the Great War as many other nations the Canadian military suffered another, particularly vicious, round of cuts in 1932 as Bennett's government gutted the defence budget. Thus it was that when Italy declared war on Britain the Canadian government had little to offer, the Royal Canadian Air Force could not offer an expeditionary group as the RAAF had, while the total Royal Canadian Navy was smaller than the average Royal Navy destroyer flotilla. However it was the Army, or more technically the Permanent and Non-Permanent Active Militias, that were in the most dire condition. The Permanent Active Militia, the equivalent of the regular army, could barely muster a division while the reservist Non-Permanent force was badly trained and under-equipped. Stung by a complete inability to contribute to the war effort, and perhaps somewhat jealous of the influence Australia had gained through the RAAF's endeavours over North Africa, King would implement a modernisation and expansion plan for all three services. The plan would be integrated with the social and economic assistance schemes, for the success of the more military-industrial Keynes Plan in Britain had not gone un-noticed and King hoped to duplicate the success for the economic and social benefits as much as for defence. Given the growing troubles in the world during the rest of the decade and beyond the re-armament programme would be invaluable to both Canada and the rest of the Empire.

    Before we leave the region and move on to Latin America it is well worth studying the Dominion of Newfoundland, a nation worthy of attention if only due to is status as one of the few countries to ever voluntarily give up self-rule. A combination of the ravages of the depression and rampant endemic corruption had left the country bankrupt and her people angry and rebellious. Despite numerous arrests and investigations the Prime Minister, Sir Richard Squires, was only finally forced from officer after a 10,000 strong mob marched on Colonial House, the seat of government, and forced him to flee. To give perspective on that figure the population of the Dominion was less than 250,000, thus the mob consisted of almost 5% of the entire population of the country. While an election was held shortly afterwards, in late 1932, it was a formality, Squires and the Liberals were utterly routed and the United Newfoundland Party romped to a crushing victory. His successor, Frederick Alderdice, owed his success purely to the unpopularity of Squires, and had campaigned on a pledge of suspending the constitution and appealing to Britain for assistance until the Depression passed. The British response, in consultation with Canada, was the Newfoundland Royal Commission which was given the task of proposing a long term solution to the problems of the Dominion. The recommendations were published in late 1933 and were simple but uncompromising; the suspension of self-government until 'Newfoundland could once again become self-sustaining'. This was supported by a catalogue of evidence about the intrinsically corrupt political culture and the bleak economic prospects for the country without massive investment, which the indebted Newfoundland government could not begin to afford. Accepting the report in full Alderdice's government put the recommendations before Parliament, which duly voted itself out of existence in December 1933 in favour of a 'Commission of Government' led by a British Governor.

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    The vast Dominion Steel and Coal Corporation iron ore loading docks at Bell Island. The health of the Newfoundland economy could reliably be judged by how busy the DSCC owned ports were, such was the importance of the corporation and it's mines to the economy of the country. The Depression had seen world wide demand for iron and steel slump dramatically, ship movements had plunged by almost two thirds as low demand and high international trade tariffs throttled the once vibrant iron ore trade.

    The Commission was split equally between British and Newfoundland members, the deciding vote being held by the Governor who chaired the Commission. It is difficult to judge the success of the Commission, if only because the size of the country meant even the relatively small grants from London went a very long way. Given the funds available it is likely almost any government could have achieved at least some improvement, though it must be said had such funds been channelled through Squires and his cronies rather than the Commission it is unlikely much would have reached ordinary Newfoundlanders. The investment was split between the local industries, mainly fishing and lumber, which were thoroughly modernised and social improvements, such as transport links and better health coverage for the rural areas. The real credit though went to the Abyssinian War and the ongoing industrial resurgence in Britain, two events that were welcomed in the province for reviving the fortunes of the many iron ore mines in the country, in particular the vast DOSCO (Dominion Steel and Coal Corporation) complex of mines on Bell Island. As British demand for steel began to return to pre-Depression levels her iron works demanded more ore, a demand Newfoundland was only too happy to meet, restoring one of the vital pillars of her economy. Of the three North American nations it was Newfoundland that ended the summer in the best shape, due in considerable part to it's constantly improving trade with Britain, a fact that was noticed by many in Canada. While welcomed by many who believed Canada could only benefit from strong neighbours and trading partners there were those who were distinctly annoyed and uneasy. The fact it had taken British intervention to revitalise Newfoundland was resented by the Quebecois, purely because many of that prejudiced minority disliked anything British, but more importantly it was feared by many Republican minded politicians, people who hated seeing progress or success associated with anything but moving away from the Empire, not towards it. As the Canadian economy turned away from America and back towards the British Empire those tensions and fears would only grow.
     
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