Demographic decline and the demise of the Despotate
Although I don’t have population figures, Atanasov provides an excellent overview of the demographic process underway in Dobruja during the late Middle Ages. Essentially, Dobruja contained 3 population “islands” – one along the Black Sea from Varna to Kaliakra, one along the Danube around Drastar (Silistra), and one in the Danube delta. The rest of the country consisted of empty hinterland, a fact stemming not only from the arid character of Dobruja’s interior but also from the waves of marauding nomads who attacked the region starting in 1036 AD. Pechenegs, Cumans, Mongols, and Tatars all ravaged Dobruja, which was their entry point into the Balkan Peninsula. As a consequence, hundreds of villages disappeared from the archeological record in Northeastern Bulgaria, coin circulation became restricted to fortifications along the Black Sea/Danube, and the accounts of travelers (among them 12th century Byzantine historian John Kinnamos and 15th century Venetian author Giovanni Maria Angiolello) began to describe Dobruja as a desert, which remained common until the 16th century. During the 10th century, the region contained roughly 30 stone fortifications and 280 unfortified villages, while a century later all unfortified villages were destroyed as well as all inland stone fortifications. During the reign of Dobrotitsa, Varna and its satellite fortifications accounted for perhaps half of the population of his realm. (Source: ДОБРУДЖАНСКОТО ДЕСПОТСТВО - КЪМ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАТА, ЦЪРКОВНАТА, СТОПАНСКАТА И КУЛТУРНАТА ИСТОРИЯ НА ДОБРУДЖА ПРЕЗ ХІV ВЕК, page 13 - 19)
Despite being crippled by this demographic catastrophe, the Despotate stubbornly clung to independence by means of clever diplomacy. Initially a Byzantine ally, Karvuna's most capable ruler Dobrotitsa warmed relations with Tarnovo to expand his holdings west into Silistra and south along the Black Sea coast in exchange for his participation in Tsar Ivan Alexander's campaign to retake Vidin from Hungary in 1369. When relations between the Despotate and its northern neighbour soured under Ivanko, a Wallachian invasion saw him temporarily ejected from his holdings in 1389 - only to be reinstalled by his Ottoman allies in 1391. Ultimately, Karvuna would outlast even Tarnovo itself, lingering on until a Tatar invasion - not an Ottoman one, destroyed the Despotate in 1399. (Source: ДОБРУДЖАНСКОТО ДЕСПОТСТВО - КЪМ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКАТА, ЦЪРКОВНАТА, СТОПАНСКАТА И КУЛТУРНАТА ИСТОРИЯ НА ДОБРУДЖА ПРЕЗ ХІV ВЕК, page 183 - 207)