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I was wondering about the math of this as well. Assuming this to be true I'm guessing 3 baddies including the sorcerer.
As for this I share a similar issue as some of the other players though not the same causes. A critical point in the game is a few hours before deadline for vote switches, I believe our only double cleared player was under fire for lack of activity and suspect voting record due to being a sleep around deadline. I'm on the US west coast, plus my wife is a night owl so we typically stay up till the wee hours of the morning. Deadline is 10am my time, I'm only going to make that about half the time give or take.
Day 1: I voted for Marco but forgot to check the thread when I miraculously woke up before 10, tbh I'm useless till I drink my coffee. I stated I would have switched to Audren, though not a major candidate. However aside from Marco who I thought was acted off at the time. The cases against both Panzer and Claude was CAWZ more or less. Neither of which really moved me.
Day 2: Purely a self preservation vote. I didn't vote for Capibara for any other reason than to save my own skin. A lot of players become suspect if we seriously consider this motive. I was awake before this deadline and even had coffee
. Otherwise I'd be lynched right now.Day 3: I supported Sleepyhead's case despite him nearly getting me lynched the day before, incidentally it was a case you wanted to try. I wasn't awake before the deadline, I would have voted Claude.
Day 4: I voted for R.Greymarch I was earlier accused of waffling on him despite my believe his behavior could be wolfish. I probably wouldn't have switched if I had gotten up, the main candidates ironically before the switch to the_hdk are all high on your tier list.
Day 5: I was up before deadline and had my coffee, if I hadn't had my coffee I would have most likely voted for either of the main candidates to ensure the tie. I didn't have a preference between the two. However I stopped myself, Yakman too has brought this up, though I can't make heads or tails of his point, I'm being accused of not making a substantial vote that would have broke the tie. If I had broken said tie the person who benefited from it, if and when they were lynched I'd then be accused of saving that person or would have been put in to a tie the next die which would have saved Agatha mind you. I'm not at all unhappy that I didn't break that tie, it killed two baddies. However, the position I'm in is a catch 22, I'm damned no matter what choice I had made.
Day 6: This one I thought was particularly funny. I was being accused of not making a substantial vote, now that I do, it's due to being somewhat forced by the JL. I hadn't gone to sleep yet, I was around a deadline realized that I had to make a substantial vote for this reason despite the strong suspicion that it didn't matter whether I did or didn't make a substantial vote, I was likely going to be scrutinized for either decision. See day 5 dilemma.
Interestingly enough there are 2 other people who also didn't vote "substantially" as three of the people who they voted for including Yakman are also still alive. I admit I didn't get that many baddies, probably due to the fact I'm bad at this game.
Lastly, with Audren hunted by the wolves, I'll state that I'm on the seer council, without revealing the other member, I suspect JL will be confirming this shortly. R.Greymarch has been cleared by the seers, may be double cleared pending the priest council announcement.
I'm witholding my vote for now till the JL weighs in. I hate not voting because again I never know if I'll be around by deadline but being accused of not making substantial votes is pretty much the same as not voting anyways.
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I do think the human element factors more into this game than some of us realize (I tend to get obsessed with these games in the late stages, which is part of the reason I stopped playing for 4 years). Your point on liefwarrior (and MarcoRossolini, by extension) is well taken.
I think given that all of the oranges that have died to lynching have only done so at JL mandate, running up the people with somewhat unclear voting records is worthwhile as they may be trying to keep their head down. Yakman claims to have scanned Mathhew with a one time use scan and given that Matthew was a baddie and Yakman very doggedly pursued him I feel like that somewhat clears him. Cullan claims seer council and I have no reason to disbelieve him as it may be easily disproven by the JL. Therefore:
Vote Avernite
Vote Avernite
I understand why you want to avoid making the point that some of us have voted oranges unlike you who tried to break a baddie tie...
But there's obviously still some who haven't voted for a single orange. What clears, say, johho or aedan?
Votecount, 2 hours and 38 minutes:
Avernite - 2: Sleepyhead [731], TheFatWombat [747]
johho - 1: Avernite [728]
TheFatWombat - 1: johho [730]
Culann - 1: Yakman [Avernite 734 -> 741]
aedan - 1: deathbywombat [744]
Non-voters - 6: Culann, LatinKaiser, Liefwarrior, MarcoRossolini, Spockyt, deathbywombat
Avernite - 2: Sleepyhead [731], TheFatWombat [747]
johho - 1: Avernite [728]
TheFatWombat - 1: johho [730]
Culann - 1: Yakman [Avernite 734 -> 741]
aedan - 1: deathbywombat [744]
Non-voters - 6: Culann, LatinKaiser, Liefwarrior, MarcoRossolini, Spockyt, deathbywombat
Avernite stood out for me as well when he was so quick to go after Wombat for his last minute voting chicanery. Wombat isn't cleared at all, but Avernite comes off worse from it all.
Pending something new:
Vote Avernite
Pending something new:
Vote Avernite
Aedan has never voted for a known orange, and while you could say that means he is probably good as Aedan is far from reluctant to vote a packmate, what's standing out to me is that he's never been voted for by a known orange either. He's also gone for easy cases (me) and championed suspicion towards Sleepy, who while not cleared is probably worth trusting for now at least.
DBW, I'd be interesting in a reminder of what Day 3 case you are repursuing, I've had a look but can't find it.
DBW, I'd be interesting in a reminder of what Day 3 case you are repursuing, I've had a look but can't find it.
@Spockyt see from day 3 - in large part because I thought his pursuing alynkio was stupid. The capi part of the argument falls flat if culann flips goodie as all the major candidates on day 2 would have been goodie then. Also he cast a some shade on the de chat case day 5 (although to be fair I could be argued to have done the same on witch agatha day 6).
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Unvote Avernite
Vote Culann
Phone made me post too early. That comment from Culann warrants pressure.
Vote Culann
Phone made me post too early. That comment from Culann warrants pressure.
I like the case on Avernite, but as he is already clearly in the lead, I’ll cast my vote on another suspect in the interest of tightening the race and avoiding bandwagons.
Vote Culann
Vote Culann
Yeah, that case was a bit odd. He does seem slightly off form this game, his cases are hardly the most convincing.
I was also going to go after Culann, but I've seen while thinking about this post that Sleepy and LK have gone for Culann, don't think it's worth pushing a candidate too far ahead this far from deadline. He's been very under the radar for a while though, and never more so than admitting to wait for a JL-certified case.
Vote Aedan.
Votecount, 1 hour and 30 minutes:
Culann - 3: Yakman [Avernite 734 -> 741], Sleepyhead [Avernite 731 -> 754], LatinKaiser [755]
Avernite - 2: TheFatWombat [747], MarcoRossolini [750]
aedan - 2: deathbywombat [744], Spockyt [756]
johho - 1: Avernite [728]
TheFatWombat - 1: johho [730]
Non-voters - 3: @Culann, @liefwarrior, @deathbywombat
Culann - 3: Yakman [Avernite 734 -> 741], Sleepyhead [Avernite 731 -> 754], LatinKaiser [755]
Avernite - 2: TheFatWombat [747], MarcoRossolini [750]
aedan - 2: deathbywombat [744], Spockyt [756]
johho - 1: Avernite [728]
TheFatWombat - 1: johho [730]
Non-voters - 3: @Culann, @liefwarrior, @deathbywombat
Well, johho was only a lazy JL-follow early vote.
By now I think I would rank our unknowns as such:
3. aedan777 -> see cases above;
6. Culann - claims witness -> seems a good thing to hold off for now, should try his witnessing soon I guess? Though he did indeed abdicate ALL responsibility to the JL rather than most. And we're almost sure the JL is infected (at least there was 1 baddie in the councils, so I bet on 2), though hopefully not fully taken over.
16. Avernite -> I did try to get De Chat AND Matthew killed. Oh and as an aside I was a villager with a 1x seer scan, result shared with the JL.
19. R.Graymarch -> voted 2 oranges; if we were looking for yellows you might look at him, but probably the most solid record here.
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump -> bad record on orange, still a fair choice but it's not taking off.
26. TheFatWombat -> did try to avoid a dual baddie-kill, but maybe his sheer incompetence is feigned? If I were a baddie saving a packmate this way I'd have to know the other guy was a baddie...
27. deathbywombat - claims traitless villager -> seems helpful trying to make info available, acceptable record.
28. Yakman - apparently claimed traitless villager to me and a one time power to Avernite -> indeed. He also has made different claims WHO he scanned with the 1x power.
One notable thing that I now remember: Yakman was my crazy friend scanned as non-wolf, claimed to have scanned Witch Agatha in PM to me, then claimed to have revealed her as a wolf to Yvanoff.
Of course we now know Agatha was indeed a wolf. Was he a zealot trying to sneak into the JL, say because his pack had an infiltrator in the priest guild? Or was he just being Yakman, i.e. crazy? The move never made sense to me but it does if he was a zealot.
UNvote johho, Vote Yakman
By now I think I would rank our unknowns as such:
3. aedan777 -> see cases above;
6. Culann - claims witness -> seems a good thing to hold off for now, should try his witnessing soon I guess? Though he did indeed abdicate ALL responsibility to the JL rather than most. And we're almost sure the JL is infected (at least there was 1 baddie in the councils, so I bet on 2), though hopefully not fully taken over.
16. Avernite -> I did try to get De Chat AND Matthew killed. Oh and as an aside I was a villager with a 1x seer scan, result shared with the JL.
19. R.Graymarch -> voted 2 oranges; if we were looking for yellows you might look at him, but probably the most solid record here.
22. Johho as Pippi Långstrump -> bad record on orange, still a fair choice but it's not taking off.
26. TheFatWombat -> did try to avoid a dual baddie-kill, but maybe his sheer incompetence is feigned? If I were a baddie saving a packmate this way I'd have to know the other guy was a baddie...
27. deathbywombat - claims traitless villager -> seems helpful trying to make info available, acceptable record.
28. Yakman - apparently claimed traitless villager to me and a one time power to Avernite -> indeed. He also has made different claims WHO he scanned with the 1x power.
One notable thing that I now remember: Yakman was my crazy friend scanned as non-wolf, claimed to have scanned Witch Agatha in PM to me, then claimed to have revealed her as a wolf to Yvanoff.
Of course we now know Agatha was indeed a wolf. Was he a zealot trying to sneak into the JL, say because his pack had an infiltrator in the priest guild? Or was he just being Yakman, i.e. crazy? The move never made sense to me but it does if he was a zealot.
UNvote johho, Vote Yakman
FYI, @Culann has claimed seer council and witness - not sure if starting on council or not, but worth noting. Not sure if that affects the calculus, but I personally dislike that case. Agree that waiting for jl to speak is not a good idea, but there are multiple lurkers still.
I don't think voting the claimed witness, Culann, is a good idea.
Also not a good idea to be voting me. I don't have the greatest voting record against the oranges, but there are several that applies to. Saying oranges haven't voted me is asilly, because outside of day 3 I haven't gotten seriously voted up to now.
The actual candidate that should be pursued today is FatWombat. He's the one who broke the tie between De chat and Matthew, in favor of De Chat. He's also consistently voted for the candidates against orange pack members, and tends to switch around at deadline. Yesterday for example he made the second to last vote, and broke the tie between Wagon and Witch Agatha to push Wagon ahead. This tendency to make serious votes in favor of orange wolves should be followed up on.
Vote FatWombat
Also not a good idea to be voting me. I don't have the greatest voting record against the oranges, but there are several that applies to. Saying oranges haven't voted me is asilly, because outside of day 3 I haven't gotten seriously voted up to now.
The actual candidate that should be pursued today is FatWombat. He's the one who broke the tie between De chat and Matthew, in favor of De Chat. He's also consistently voted for the candidates against orange pack members, and tends to switch around at deadline. Yesterday for example he made the second to last vote, and broke the tie between Wagon and Witch Agatha to push Wagon ahead. This tendency to make serious votes in favor of orange wolves should be followed up on.
Vote FatWombat