Vote Wagonlitz
Gut feeling tells me he is a Danish tree hugging brainwashed "environmentalist".
Gut feeling tells me he is a Danish tree hugging brainwashed "environmentalist".
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@Dedonus Not to seem too demanding, but could you add to the vote counts which days the bot voted and which days it was actually aedan2.0 voting(maybe like adding (bot) after his name or smth)?
I mostly agree with Johho here, though some minor additions:
Darrman's day 1 snipe could prove interesting now - I thought this was just tieprevention. With Darrman flipping wolf it raises the question why a wolf would snipe like that and why he picked specifically jeray. Of course it could still have been an attempt to get some goodie points, but that seems like a rather bold move to me(and a wolf would've benefitted if that thriee way tie somehow still stood at deadline). Alternatively it could've been an attempt to save one of Aedan or de chat. De chat seems more likely between the two: If you were a wolf in darrman's spot, would you stick out your neck to save a bot packmate?
On day 2 I don't really have much to add.
On day 3 de chat jumped on darrman with a very small justification, that aedan pointed out was implicating de chat in the case that de chat was voting for. Not sure how strong that case actually is, but with the fairly weak reasoning I could see this being a sellout expecting darrman to be doomed after hax went after him.
On day 4 none of front runners died so I'm not sure how much can learned from that right now.
VOTE DE CHAT
I mostly agree with Johho here, though some minor additions:
Darrman's day 1 snipe could prove interesting now - I thought this was just tieprevention. With Darrman flipping wolf it raises the question why a wolf would snipe like that and why he picked specifically jeray. Of course it could still have been an attempt to get some goodie points, but that seems like a rather bold move to me(and a wolf would've benefitted if that thriee way tie somehow still stood at deadline). Alternatively it could've been an attempt to save one of Aedan or de chat. De chat seems more likely between the two: If you were a wolf in darrman's spot, would you stick out your neck to save a bot packmate?
On day 2 I don't really have much to add.
On day 3 de chat jumped on darrman with a very small justification, that aedan pointed out was implicating de chat in the case that de chat was voting for. Not sure how strong that case actually is, but with the fairly weak reasoning I could see this being a sellout expecting darrman to be doomed after hax went after him.
On day 4 none of front runners died so I'm not sure how much can learned from that right now.
VOTE DE CHAT
Well, the case against me is obviously very weak and I don't understand why people is so willing to follow.
First day Darrman trying to save me? Come on, a member of my pack wouldn't do such an obvious movement, I would have said him in private conversation to stay with his vote against whoever he was voting before doing such a thing. And it wasn't so bad for me anyway, we were three contenders and I didn't even make a vote against one of them so I had my sniping, without darrman's vote I could have contacted Jeray to vote werewolf-bot together at the last moment so we could save us with no problem or something like that, so I didn't even need Darrman's vote and that makes the vote too stupid for a packmate.
By the other day on day 1 when I voted Avernite, Arkasas wasn't even a contender, so again saying that I was trying to save Arkasas doesn't have any sense.
By the other hand, Darrman wasn't lost at all when I voted him day 3 so it doesn't have any sense to say that I saw him lynched and that's the reason why I voted him. It was the begining of the day and with my vote he was just 2 votes ahead (and before my vote just one). Trying to make appear that vote against a wolf like something bad is absurd.
First day Darrman trying to save me? Come on, a member of my pack wouldn't do such an obvious movement, I would have said him in private conversation to stay with his vote against whoever he was voting before doing such a thing. And it wasn't so bad for me anyway, we were three contenders and I didn't even make a vote against one of them so I had my sniping, without darrman's vote I could have contacted Jeray to vote werewolf-bot together at the last moment so we could save us with no problem or something like that, so I didn't even need Darrman's vote and that makes the vote too stupid for a packmate.
By the other day on day 1 when I voted Avernite, Arkasas wasn't even a contender, so again saying that I was trying to save Arkasas doesn't have any sense.
By the other hand, Darrman wasn't lost at all when I voted him day 3 so it doesn't have any sense to say that I saw him lynched and that's the reason why I voted him. It was the begining of the day and with my vote he was just 2 votes ahead (and before my vote just one). Trying to make appear that vote against a wolf like something bad is absurd.
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Hmm, surprised that Darman was Arkasas' packmate, Arkasas' vote on him didn't seem like a sellout or alibi. If the wolves of that pack are doing that in general, it could make the voting record potentially rather misleading.
On the number of packs, it could go either way I think. We're small enough that only one pack is possible, potentially even likely. Two packs in something this small would be too fragile. Still could happen, but I'm slightly disinclined to think so.
Knowing now that Darman's a wolf, I think Day 3's Capibara's voters are more suspicious. They helped lead a switch away from a wolf. Beartjah both started it and pressed on it afterwards. His post pressing it is especially notable because he did so while Darman was in the lead. This helped lead to pressure dissipating on Darman and eventually shifting to Capibara. Strikes me as a little suspicious.
Now some will point to Beartjah leading the charge against Arkasas day 2 as proof in his favor, but I disagree. First off, it was a very lazy and suspicious vote of arkasas'. It was going to come under scrutiny sooner or latter, best as a packmate to get at the front for credit. More importantly, he did it by voting a packmate of his. So if beartjah voted Arkasas and got him lynched, not only was he gaining credit for himself, he was also protecting another packmate. I find this quite plausible.
Vote Beartjah
On the number of packs, it could go either way I think. We're small enough that only one pack is possible, potentially even likely. Two packs in something this small would be too fragile. Still could happen, but I'm slightly disinclined to think so.
Knowing now that Darman's a wolf, I think Day 3's Capibara's voters are more suspicious. They helped lead a switch away from a wolf. Beartjah both started it and pressed on it afterwards. His post pressing it is especially notable because he did so while Darman was in the lead. This helped lead to pressure dissipating on Darman and eventually shifting to Capibara. Strikes me as a little suspicious.
Now some will point to Beartjah leading the charge against Arkasas day 2 as proof in his favor, but I disagree. First off, it was a very lazy and suspicious vote of arkasas'. It was going to come under scrutiny sooner or latter, best as a packmate to get at the front for credit. More importantly, he did it by voting a packmate of his. So if beartjah voted Arkasas and got him lynched, not only was he gaining credit for himself, he was also protecting another packmate. I find this quite plausible.
Vote Beartjah
I knew this case was going to come with how defensive I've been of Darrman these past days...
Don't really have much to say for myself. The only thing I'd like to note here is that protecting a packmate by killing another packmate seems a tad bit pointless to me: I could've jumped on Avernite or pointed out another lazy voter if it was about defending darrman and if I did this for goodie points I could've jumped on top of darrman there. Triggering a vote switch from one packmate to another just to get some goodie points seems like pointlessly risky move to me: If the switch failed and Darrman got lynched I would've been a prime suspect, which is something wolf me wouldn't do.
Don't really have much to say for myself. The only thing I'd like to note here is that protecting a packmate by killing another packmate seems a tad bit pointless to me: I could've jumped on Avernite or pointed out another lazy voter if it was about defending darrman and if I did this for goodie points I could've jumped on top of darrman there. Triggering a vote switch from one packmate to another just to get some goodie points seems like pointlessly risky move to me: If the switch failed and Darrman got lynched I would've been a prime suspect, which is something wolf me wouldn't do.
Official Votecount, (3 hours, 3 minutes to deadline):
De Chat - 2: Johho888 [260], beartjah [262]
Wagonlitz - 1: Hax [261]
beartjah - 1: aedan2.0 [264]
Not-Voted - 7: Wagonlitz, De Chat, Dedonus, nepechri, alynkio, Chieron, brovhakiin
De Chat - 2: Johho888 [260], beartjah [262]
Wagonlitz - 1: Hax [261]
beartjah - 1: aedan2.0 [264]
Not-Voted - 7: Wagonlitz, De Chat, Dedonus, nepechri, alynkio, Chieron, brovhakiin
Damn, I really should've made the threeway tie on day one, that would've potentially snatched 2 baddies. *Sigh*. I need to revise my stance on ties.
I have to agree with aedan regarding deChat, with Darrman being a wolf, deChat's voting history is not exactly congruent with being a packmate of Arkasas/Darrman. It would not preclude him being in another pack, if there is one. I just cannot see him together with Darrman/Arky.
The case on beartjah is not helpful, though. Trying to switch the votes from one packmate to another? That is dangerous and can backfire.
Aedan being an ascended bot really reduces the amount of analysis possible, given he was hard to read already. But his analysis feels uncharacteristally bad right now.
vote aedan
I have to agree with aedan regarding deChat, with Darrman being a wolf, deChat's voting history is not exactly congruent with being a packmate of Arkasas/Darrman. It would not preclude him being in another pack, if there is one. I just cannot see him together with Darrman/Arky.
The case on beartjah is not helpful, though. Trying to switch the votes from one packmate to another? That is dangerous and can backfire.
Aedan being an ascended bot really reduces the amount of analysis possible, given he was hard to read already. But his analysis feels uncharacteristally bad right now.
vote aedan
Trying to meta the GM... He only added one GM zombie making it 20 players which is easier to divide by 4 to get 25% baddies in one pack than by 3 to get 33% baddies in two packs. Two GM zombies would be easier to divide by 3. But perchance it's only me that takes my rules of thumb that seriously...
But with the Zealot role I think it would be easier than normal to have two packs in a small game like this since we'd need to kill every baddie but the sorc if the packs are made up of Wolves/Zealots. At the same time there would still be something for the Priest to detect.
SOME FELLOW AMERICANS STILL HAVEN'T CONTACTED ME. FOX NEWS WANTS TO GET IN CONTACT WITH YOU. YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!
You keep bringing up the "zealot" role, but this thread's OP does not list that as a possible trait (even though the seerish scan does mention being able to scan a zealot).Trying to meta the GM... He only added one GM zombie making it 20 players which is easier to divide by 4 to get 25% baddies in one pack than by 3 to get 33% baddies in two packs. Two GM zombies would be easier to divide by 3. But perchance it's only me that takes my rules of thumb that seriously...
But with the Zealot role I think it would be easier than normal to have two packs in a small game like this since we'd need to kill every baddie but the sorc if the packs are made up of Wolves/Zealots. At the same time there would still be something for the Priest to detect.
Official Votecount, (~45 minutes to deadline):
De Chat - 2: Johho888 [260], beartjah [262]
Wagonlitz - 1: Hax [261]
beartjah - 1: aedan2.0 [264]
Aedan2.0 - 1: Chieron [267]
Not-Voted - 6: @Wagonlitz, @De Chatillôn, @Dedonus, @nepechri, @alynkio, brovahkiin
De Chat - 2: Johho888 [260], beartjah [262]
Wagonlitz - 1: Hax [261]
beartjah - 1: aedan2.0 [264]
Aedan2.0 - 1: Chieron [267]
Not-Voted - 6: @Wagonlitz, @De Chatillôn, @Dedonus, @nepechri, @alynkio, brovahkiin
Pretty scattered spread of votes
Pretty quiet also
I'll follow hax onto wagon and consolidate a little
Pretty quiet also
I'll follow hax onto wagon and consolidate a little
Darrman turning out to being a wolf does make things a little complicated.
Hmm...I'm going to throw out a crazy idea. Although Brovahkiin's vote switch allowed Arkasas to be lynched in a tie, he could have been a cultist who was looking for some goodie points and expected Arkasas to save himself and that plan failed when Arkasas wasn't around to snipe. I don't have a real good feeling about this one, but better than nothing.
vote Brovahkiin
Hmm...I'm going to throw out a crazy idea. Although Brovahkiin's vote switch allowed Arkasas to be lynched in a tie, he could have been a cultist who was looking for some goodie points and expected Arkasas to save himself and that plan failed when Arkasas wasn't around to snipe. I don't have a real good feeling about this one, but better than nothing.
vote Brovahkiin
The fewer people we have left, the more Wagon's relative quietness stands out. Knowing there were 2 wolves in contention day 2 does complicate the vote against Arky even further, and Wagon does still have a habit of alibi voting. While I'm quite suspicious of DeChat, Wagon going after him repeatedly could simply further track with his alibi voting ways (if 1 pack). I'm liking Wagonlitz more as a candidate.
His targeting of Darrman for several days makes him look even better now. (Though, if 2 packs... he'd only be clear from 1)
Darrman actually turning up evil complicates the Meh-Bear narrative considerably. On the whole, though, I'm still leaning goodie here due to general demeanor and helpfulness. But no longer at the bottom of my list of suspects. (Still, selling out 1 packmate to save another is a risky strategy)
Little change in opinion here. Basically clear if 1 pack, definitely worth a look if 2.
Darrman put heavy pressure on Chieron day 3. If 1 pack, this makes Chieron look a little better. If 2 packs, still a legit candidate, though perhaps no longer my fave.
Why would Darrman risk the spotlight day 1 to kill Jeray? It makes sense that there could have been a baddie in contention, though DeChat's defense is legit if not necessarily 100% trustworthy. DeChat went after Darrman day 3, though this could be a sell-out. I'm beginning to get the sense that DeChat could just be a convenient scapegoat, though he's far from clear.
Nice to see Johho spring into action a little. Drew a vote from Darrman pre-outing. If 2 packs, definitely still someone we might want to look at.
Outer of Darrman. Probably clear (though I am aware of all the potential wacky scenarios we could have here, [cultist outed his surviving packmate in the weaker pack once the priest died, wolf of the rival pack had a seerish scan and decided to start an IJL etc.] none of them seem particularly likely)
Darrman proving evil does slightly complicate the potential alignment of the bot. Still metagaming logic suggests the bot is most likely good.
Basically in the same boat as Beartjah. I too thought Darrman was being scapegoated, so I'm somewhat sympathetic to others who thought the same (though the possibility of evil does lurk) on behavior alone, analytical and helpful. Somewhat less clear than before, but still far from my fave.
This leaves Johho, DeChat, and Wagon as my preferred candidates for today. Johho's been slightly more active and has the slightly clearing vote from Darrman pre-outing yesterday. I'm beginning to suspect DeChat might be a scapegoat. Wagon's vote against Arky would be in character for Evil Wagon, and all he's done since is tunnel DeChat.
VOTE WAGONLITZ
Priestly powers lists it. It was a very long first post. I only read parts that were relevant for me. You fill in the blanks...
Hack GM is hack!
EDIT: with no Zealot I think odds for one pack increases somewhat.