Werewolf CCXXXVIII - A New Year's Celebration

[alxeu]

Day 5:
​

During the day's festivities, a lone townsperson yelling at various members of the village is eventually picked out by a few of the tougher townspeople, and is beaten up and driven out of town. It is discovered that De Chatillon was a sympathizer with the evil wolves terrorizing the village, though he didn't seem to be linked with any of them at the moment...

De Chatillon the Spiritually Attuned Unattached Cultist was lynched.

Night 5:
​

That night, a break-in at one of the local houses are reported. Several of you rush to the scene, and you find brovahkiin there, having shot a wolf dead. This wolf is identified as johho888, though this happens only after brovahkiin is dragged off to the jail. When you get there, you discover that the jailor was attacked and killed already, by an unknown assailant! Beartjah is mourned, and, given the circumstances, brovahkiin is let free. Now what?

johho888 the Wolf of the Vindictive Pack with used Sorcerous Powers was shot by Brovahkiin.
Beartjah the Security Chief was hunted.

 

[Dedonus]

Guess that means there are two packs.

 

[brovahkiin]

I brought that gun back from the war
I hoped never to have to use it again

 

[Wagonlitz]

De Chatillon the Spiritually Attuned Unattached Cultist was lynched.

Would an update state if a cultist was formerly attached to a pack?



We've now seen 4 dead baddies. We were 20 starting players. Assuming johho's rule of thumb then there'll be 6 or 7 baddies. And there almost certainly isn't more than 8, and probably and hopefully not 8, as that'd make the game horribly unbalanced. (8 is 40%, the ratio for a three pack game which this almost certainly isn't.)

Assuming symmetrical packs then we're proabbly looking at something like two packs of two wolves and a cultist plus a sorc. Or possible two packs of two wolves and a zealot, and then an unattached cultist. Or something in that vein.

We're down to 8 players and probably have 2-3 baddies left. Meanign that worst case, i.e. 3 baddies left, then today is parity day potentially. Assuming the feral pack is gone, but that most likely is the case.

So we need to focus on getting an orange tonight.

 

[alxeu]

Would an update state if a cultist was formerly attached to a pack?

Nope.

 

[Hax]

I brought that gun back from the war
I hoped never to have to use it again

Your served well! johho, how did that AR-15 taste? murica!

 

[beartjah]

boo cowards and so on and so forth

 

[Dedonus]

day 1

Spoiler

Official Votecount, (deadline):

jeray2000 - 6: Panzer Commader [85], Chieron [86], Avernite [Aedan 2.0 bot 81 ->105], Aedan 2.0 bot [107], Darrman [Aedan 2.0 bot 96 ->113] , De Chat [Claude LC 98 -> 114]

De Chat - 4: Jacksonian Missionary [93], Claude LC [100], alynkio [101], jeray2000 [Aedan 2.0 bot 84 -> 102]

Aedan 2.0 - 3: Nepechri [88], Capibara [99],Dedonus [johho888 80 -> 106]

Brovahkiin - 1: Hax [78]

Panzer Commader - 1: Beartjah [79]

Arkasas - 1: aedan777 [82]

Jacksonian Missionary - 1: Johho888 [83]

Avernite - 1: Brovahkiin [87]

Dedonus - 1: Arkasas [94]

Nepechri - 1: Wagonlitz [95]

Not-Voted - 0:

day 2

Spoiler

Avernite - 5: aedan777 [129], De Chat [135], Aedan 2.0 bot [138], Darrman [147], Chieron [153]

Arkasas - 5: Dedonus [128], Beartjah [Capibara 125 ->143], Avernite [Hax 121 -> 144], alynkio [150], Wagonlitz [151]

Darrman - 4: Nepechri [130], Capibara [136], Arkasas [140], Claude LC [141]

Hax - 1: johho888 [126]

Claude LC - 1: brovahkiin [Avernite 137 -> 154]

Not-Voted - 2: Hax, Jacksonian Missionary

day 3

Spoiler

Official Votecount, (deadline):

Capibara - 5: beartjah [166], brovahkiin [188], nepechri [Darrman 181 -> 199], alynkio [204], Chieron [Darrman 185 -> 207],

Chieron - 4: Claude LC [190], Dedonus [194], Capibara [203], Darrman [205]

Darrman - 2: Hax [181], De Chat [187]

Claude LC - 1: johho888 [177]

Wagonlitz - 1: Aedan2.0 [178]

De Chat - 1: Wagonlitz [199]

Not-Voted - 0

day 4 - Pre-Outting

Spoiler

Chieron - 3: aedan2.0 [218], Hax [227], Alynkio [236]

johho888 - 3: Dedonus [228], nepechri [230], Darrman [237]

De Chat - 3: brovahkiin [223], Chieron [235], Wagonlitz [239]

Nepechri - 1: Beartjah [216]

aedan2.0 - 1: De Chat [219]

Hax - 1: johho888 [De Chat 220 -> Unvote 222 -> 238]

day 4 - Post-Outting

Spoiler

Darrman - 6: Hax [Chieron 227 ->243], johho888 [De Chat 220 -> Unvote 222 -> Hax 238 ->244], Chieron [De Chat 235 -> 245], Alynkio [Chieron 236 ->247], Beartjah [Nepechri 216 ->248], nepechri [johho888 230 ->249]

johho888 - 2: Dedonus [228], Darrman [237]

De Chat - 2: brovahkiin [223], Wagonlitz [239]

Chieron - 1: aedan2.0 [218]

aedan2.0 - 1: De Chat [219]

day 5

Spoiler

De Chat - 4: Johho888 [260], beartjah [262], Hax [Wagonlitz 261 -> 295], Wagonlitz [beartjah 288 ->296]

Wagonlitz - 2: alynkio [279], brovahkiin [282]

beartjah - 1: aedan2.0 [264]

Aedan2.0 - 1: Chieron [267]

brovahkiin - 1: Dedonus [278]

Not-Voted - 2: De Chatillôn, nepechri

 

[Hax]

One Spanish communist and the Swedish IT expert who was working for the Iranian regime got neutralized tonight. Well played fellow Americans! God bless you, God bless the UNITED STATES OF MURICA!

 

[Hax]

VOTE brovahkiin

 

[brovahkiin]

VOTE brovahkiin

but why?

 

[Dedonus]

I feel that Chieron is the most suspicious of everyone remaining. Here is his voting record:

Day 1: voted the villager Jeray over the cultist De Chat

Day 2: voted the villager Avernite over Arkasas (who was tied with Avernite) and Darrman, both wolves.

Day 3: voted the priest Capibara over Darrman and himself.

Day 4: Pre-outing (his switch to Darrman does not count), he voted the cultist De Chat over the wolf Johho.

Day 5: made a throwaway vote on Aedan 2.0, when the main contender at the end of the day was De Chat.

Chieron consistently voted in a way that benefited both packs, although I would argue the red pack gained more (or maybe De Chat, who might have been part of the red pack, assuming the red pack got disbanded after it lost two wolves). Even when he was forced to pick between baddies on Day 4, he picked the cultist over the wolf. This pattern is just way too consistent to not think that Chieron is a baddie.

Furthermore, if any of us were to look through Chieron's post record in this thread, he has not provided much helpful analysis to the game, which makes me even more suspicious of him.

Vote Chieron

 

[Wagonlitz]

I'm not gonna be able to look at the game for most of the day.

Deo's case on Chieron could have some sense.

Vote Chieron

 

[aedan777]

I think Chieron is a baddie, though not because he fits with the reds, but because he fits with Johho. Day 4 in particular both were in the running as major candidates, but they refused to vote for each other. If we're looking for packmates of Johho's, and we should be, Chieron is the best bet in my mind.

Vote Chieron

 

[Hax]

but why?

Wolfdar 2000

 

[alxeu]

Official Votecount, (3 hours, 58 minutes to deadline):

Chieron - 3: Dedonus [312], Wagonlitz [313], aedan2.0 [314]

brovahkiin - 1: Hax [310]

Not-Voted - 4: Chieron, brovahkiin, alynkio, nepechri

 

[alxeu]

There's a pretty good chance I won't be around at deadline today. I should arrive at most an hour or two later, afterwards. Deadline is still the same time, of course.

 

[brovahkiin]

I feel like I've done little but follow other people's cases this game
but I really don't have anything better than the case on chieron
vote chieron

 

[Chieron]

I've not really acted differently - I simply got mixed into those wolfish shenanigans on day 2 by avoiding a threeway tie. Randomly vote in tandem with them and it follows me for all time.
With my accidental vote record, analysation is also horribly depressing. I myself would've jumped on me.
I will never again play in a game with a bot. It just goes against the spirit of the game.
Anyway, I am obviously dead now.

vote aedan fwiw.

 

[alynkio]

2 packs of 2 wolves + 1 cultist makes sense -- would explain Darrman saving DeChat day 1 and DeChat turning up unattached. In which case we're looking for the final Johho-wolf.

Nepechri and Dedonus voted Johho day 3, so they look pretty good right now.

Still not buying the Bot as a baddie, and nothing in Aedan's behavior really seems to suggest otherwise.

This leaves Wagon, Brovahkiin, and Chieron.

Hax's suspicion of Brovahkiin actually makes a lot of sense. Arky was brutal -- to balance the packs, the other pack would need some firepower too, like a hunter. Still, he could have shot literally anyone other than Johho. Even so, disobeying a command from the JL is dangerous. Though I'd expect the baddies to be pushing for parity - I could easily see thinking doing so was too risky. Maybe he thought killing his packmate would make him above suspicion. And let's be honest -- Brovahkiin hasn't really been acting like a goodie.

As far as I can see, Wagon fits perfectly well as a Johho wolf as well . He's been tunneling DeChat for days -- and yeah, DeChat was a baddie, but either unattached, or originally from the rival pack so this is really minimally clearing.

Aedan's point on Chieron is valid. When they were run up together, Chieron and Johho studiously avoided voting each other and Chieron's behavior fits the pattern of a baddie -- just sorta floating along without really contributing anything.

As we could be as little as 1 mislynch away from parity, I don't want to give baddies sniping opportunities, and I agree with the case even if I hate following along with the crowd.


VOTE CHIERON