Installment the fourth
How to survive overextension
Hello, Class!
Following the humbling of Ak Koyunlu, 1497, it is time to look west, to the wealthy provinces of Hungary, which are also considered our core provinces. We will need to strike hard and fast, as Hungary is in alliance with Bohemia and Poland. On the other hand, this alliance is also at war with the Austrian alliance, which means that it will take time for them to readjust to a new front. We could, of course, delay action, but doing so might cause the Hungarian alliance to make peace with the Austrians. And though strong our technologically backwards nation is not strong enough to face the Hungarian alliance in full strength. Nevertheless we must take the time to rally our armies on the border with Hungary as well as recruit a few thousand replacements - while remembering to keep an army or two around Astrakhan and the old Ak Koyunlu provinces. This is because of the phenomenon of nationalism, with which you are intimately familiar, having read your notes.
And by 1499 we have marshalled enough troops, and the Hungarian alliance is still fighting the Austrians. Time to deliver that declaration of war.
Notice how our stability dropped measurably? That is because we are coreligionists and had a royal marriage going. To regain that loss in stability will take an investment of 1907 ducats. Per point. How did this come to be? Well, consider all those muslim provinces we just gained and the fact that our conversion to catholicism was a very innovative thing to do, which tended to leave our subjects more open to revolutionary thought, and you get the idea. Unfortunately, we can, at most, scrape together something like 50 or 60 ducats per month for investment. So we are talking three years to regain a stability point. This means that we are seriously overextended, since we are at the mercy of any nasty random event during this period. The solution is, obviously, to increase our revenues, convert the muslims, and to do everything in our power to become more narrowminded. In terms of the current simulation we are paying 100%-(50%-5%) = 55% of the rational mean. Were the population reduced to focused, market-driven, and seriously proactive dummies, we would only be paying 100%-(50%+25%)=25%. Which means that we are paying 55%/25% = 2.2 times as much as we ideally should.
This, my students, is the prime reason that so many aspiring Dark Lords and World Conquerors prefer a completely narrowminded and enserfed population.
The stability recovering information shows sure signs of overextension.
While I was talking you will have noticed that I have managed to invest most of Hungary, and have mopped up a few armies with our all cavalry 'crushing' army. And a good thing it is too, for they seem to have ended the Austrian war. So let us pursue peace.
Pest, Banat, Serbia, and Kosovo added November 1500. That means we have a direct land connection to our Dalmatian provinces. Considering our relatively few losses (less than 30%) this is cheap at the price. And the fewer troops means we can invest more in stability recovering as well.
And gaining Krain by defection from Hungary in December is a nice touch. Every little thing helps.
Now, however it is time to fight our overextension issue. We lucked out during the war, but we can't count on that in the future. Let us start raising funds for conversions. Our current puppet monarch is very bad at administration, so we had better save the money for the next. His chosen successor shows rather more promising signs.
This being a peaceful period, I will just increase the speed slightly... Went narrowminded again as per plan, Manuel II took the throne and began a bunch of conversions, established cantonments in Astrakhan (good, we can use the manpower), the clergy were unhappy..
That's great! The only way to appease an unhappy clergy is by concessions, increasing overall narrowmindedness. Sure, we will appease you.
And no, we don't need an exceptionally innovative court painter. You must be joking.
But the Italian Engineer, sure. Our military outlook is rather defensive. Does this surprise you? It shouldn't. Any idiot can conquer territory. It is holding onto it that is hard. Also, with a sufficiently defensive military strategy focusing on fortifications and such, not only will we be better at defending our hardwon territory, but also at besieging other nations' fortifications. I foresee a time when this will be important.
And following our alliance with Siedenbürgen 1508, the recovery of our stability, and the raising of new armies, it is time to declare war on Hungary again.
The declaration of war is sent February 1509, and the armies are but a few days behind. Fortunately we only lose less stability this time, there being no royal marriage to break, and we are rather more narrowminded than before, so it will be cheaper to regain stability. Cheaper. Not cheap.
Bereft of allies and crippled by the last war, Hungary cannot put up much of a fight, despite being helped by an uprising amongst our peasantry.
Yes, I hate those as well. But consider it the only drawback to enserfing them and let it stay at that. Remember the following:
If God had meant for revolters to succeed, he would have given them more cavalry.
In other words, crush and forgive. But never forget. Always keep around a few cavalry heavy rebel crushing armies. If all your armies are at the front, an incidental rebellion or two in your heartland can create real trouble.
And this war only took two years. All of Hungary is occupied, and we take control of everything but the capital: Odenburg, Presburg, Carpathia, Ruthenia, and Maros.
Yes, I would have liked to annex completely as well. But this simulation has a rule that only one province nations can be annexed, save they be pagans. This is to present you with an extra hardship you are unlikely to face in real life. Remember, it is better to take your lumps in training, than when in combat on some remote world.
Damn! Corruption again. Combat it and take the stab hit. Unathorised corruption is an evil. And Manuel II didn't last long. Croaked 1511. Fortunately his successor, Andreas II, is a puppet as well. Manuel II managed to convert Serbia, Crete and Daghestan, but failed in Kosovo, Dalmatia, Armenia, Siva and Nuyssaybin. An average performance.
New emperor, new war. Since annexing a fellow christian nation (the name of our country's relgion, don't forget - it is always the small things that trip you up) causes a massive degradation of our reputation, we will leave Hungary alone for now, and turn instead against Albania which is in alliance with Aragon, Portugal, and Genoa. That alliance has some of our real estate, and I want it, badly. Besides, the armies should keep in training, right?
That was interesting. While our galleys, what few remain, have shown themselves to be utterly outclassed by the Portuguese and Genoan navies, their alliance didn't really do much in terms of projecting power. Add Ragusa, Hellas, and Istria to the empire. A good short war of 14 months.
Our growing empire of 1514. Trade3 is estimated at 43K
Oh, shit. Look what just happened to the religious map! The catholic branch of the christian faith has split leaving us with the broad christian categories of protestant, catholic, and orthodox. Since the new teachings are mostly ignored in the empire, it is of no immediate concern. In the long run, however, it spells trouble. It is so much easier to rule fewer distinct religions.
Which does not, of course, prevent me from making war on and annexing Ak Koyunlu in 1517. Remember to pay attention to detail, class. I notice that several of you had forgotten all about Ak Koyunlu due to the increased western focus. Sloppy. Very sloppy.
And Andreas II is dead as well. They do seem to be dropping like flies these days. Fortunately Ioannes IX, the new emperor, is a pretty bright guy (for a puppet, that is). Let us bolster his position with an easy victory over, say, the Golden Horde. Comprising half a dozen provinces that are not worth the trouble to conquer at the moment, the Golden Horde will nevertheless make an excellent vassal guarding our north-eastern provinces.
They never stood a chance. Force vassalised 1519.
As for our next move, I am sure most of you have guessed it. Austria. Allied with Bavaria, Hannover, Cyprus, Kleves, and Sweden, the Austrian alliance will be our toughest target yet. Notice how all those other nations tend to have outstanding military leaders, while ours are all pretty weak? This is yet another compensation in the simulation. You must learn to make do without superior generals. Only then will you be ready to take on a world. Austria typically has great leaders in this world, but don't despair: they can only be in one place at a time, and their forces can be ground to paste under the weight of massive cavalry armies just like everyone else. Though it costs dearly in terms of casualties, admittedly. But then, so does their technological superiority, but since when did that stop a truly determined enemy? Having a mindset that considers one's own forces as statistics has certain advantages during a world conquest.
By March, 1521 it is time to declare war. Most of the Austrian armies are currently stationed in the Dutch provinces around Flandern, which is good. Bavaria alone boasts an army of 53,000 troops, which is bad, Hannover and Kleves also boast not inconsiderable armies. But let us try to avoid them and focus on the Austrians. Our goals for this first Austrian war are modest, after all: The gold mines of Steirmarch and the centre of trade in Veneto.
The main Bavarian army has been eliminated at dreadful cost, we sign a separate white peace with Bavaria in September. Much better than having them raise a new army.
By May 1522, most of the Austrian heartland is under siege
Ouch! We got hit by poor government policies. On the other hand, due to the many lavish gifts I have been making, I have, during the turmoil of the war, managed to create an alliance with Poland and Siedenbürgen. This should secure our northern border.
And just as everything is going so well, the peasants are unhappy. Again. Coupled with our war exhaustion, I predict 1525 will be coloured red by rebel blood. And boy, did my prediction come true.
And meanwhile Austria keeps rejecting giving up Steirmarch and Veneto. Rejection follows rejection, follows rejection, follows...
Wait a moment? Austria caved in. They want to give up Steirmarch, Veneto, and Ostmarch. Well, if they insist, then let September 1525 mark peace with the Austrians on their terms.
Our reputation suffers somewhat, however.
And that concludes todays lecture. We saw how our laudable conquests had nevertheless led us into a situation fraught with danger, and how, by applying the tools at hand, we managed to resolve the issue by increasing revenues, converting unbelievers, an supporting conformity.
The next lesson will be on the topic of reputation. How low can you go? (And survive)
Class dismissed.
Oh, and Lionheart? I must inform you that todays classes with Miss Starbright have been cancelled. I made her world move.