Werewolf CXXXV: Doomsday

[reis91]

I've also considered that. Seeing as there are two packs, at least (and probably at most), Adamus is not cleared with neither of the outcomes. However, if Adamus is indeed a goodie, or generally perceived as such, then not lynching him gives the wolves one more target to take down (even if he is a baddie of one pack, the other may still hunt him). And a hunt on him isn't a hunt on one of our wolf-cleared (bar turns) guys.

What do you think?

 

[humancalculator]

Nonsense, Joho was the last to find out that AVN was the main guy giving cleared players updates from the seer. He is also named in AVN's last post here as the most likely traitor. It's a bit more than just his word.

Unfortunately, Snoop is right regarding who we should vote for. If we go after Adamus because he is the most suspicious, we will have a better idea of who is lying here.

 

[humancalculator]

I've also considered that. Seeing as there are two packs, at least (and probably at most), Adamus is not cleared with neither of the outcomes. However, if Adamus is indeed a goodie, or generally perceived as such, then not lynching him gives the wolves one more target to take down (even if he is a baddie of one pack, the other may still hunt him). And a hunt on him isn't a hunt on one of our wolf-cleared (bar turns) guys.

What do you think?

Adamus lost all credibility when he declared AVN to be a baddie and AVN was not a baddie.

 

[Hashoosh]

We should seriously lynch them both, we don't know how close to parity we're getting, but I'd bet it's very. And one, probably both of joho and Adamus are baddies

 

[Cliges]

Unfortunately, Snoop is right regarding who we should vote for. If we go after Adamus because he is the most suspicious, we will have a better idea of who is lying here.

Why waste time?

How is Adamus more likely than Joho?

 

[reis91]

About styles, it could just as easily be said that this isn't really Adamus's style. How could he know about AVN being in the JL, especially when we add that up with EL being blissfully unaware of any AVN - unknown communication?

I understand Snoop's viewpoint, he wants to apply a methodical approach and lynch the outed guy, then the one doing the outing, then the one claimed by Adamus to have provided him the information. This assuming that Snoop and Johho aren't packmates, a scenario which I cannot exclude.
However, I am arguing against this viewpoint as it increases the cost of the wolf scalp we would eventually obtain.

From a sportive point of view, yes, one ought to lynch the guy who very clearly screwed up (You do not blindingly follow supposed JL sources without taking due precaution), over the guy he accused of being the cause of his mistakes. However, the goal of the game is to catch wolves, and thus the only deciding factor on the decision to run up Adamus or Johho first (or both, as suggested) would be which one is more likely to be a wolf. It's not about credibility, as far as we all should be concerned, mr. humancalculator.

So, let's look back and see the cases for both contestants... (next posts)

PS : Adamus, you wouldn't happen to have any written copies (screenshots are banned, IIRC, as Photoshop skills should not be a requirement to play WW) of the PM's, if they do exist? Not that they are exactly solid evidence, as they can be faked, but information is information. I ask the same from Johho, too.

PPS: I would also like to cite a certain game where fake outings were done by a goodie, and the village lost the game because they went for credibility over analysis. I can't recall the name, or number, but it's commonly known as the game where Reis fake-outed AOK.11. I would ask you not to commit the same mistake.

 

[humancalculator]

Why waste time?

How is Adamus more likely than Joho?

ADAMUS. REVEALED. THAT. AVN. WAS. A. BADDIE. AND. AVN. WAS. NOT. A. BADDIE.

We go after the one who made this revelation (I initially voted for Johho without reading the thread and seeing what had happened). Why go after someone we think may have pulled the strings, instead of going after the one who actually committed the crime?

 

[humancalculator]

ADAMUS. REVEALED. THAT. AVN. WAS. A. BADDIE. AND. AVN. WAS. NOT. A. BADDIE.

We go after the one who made this revelation (I initially voted for Johho without reading the thread and seeing what had happened). Why go after someone we think may have pulled the strings, instead of going after the one who actually committed the crime?

As you may be able to tell, I agree with Snoop's approach.

 

[Cliges]

ADAMUS. REVEALED. THAT. AVN. WAS. A. BADDIE. AND. AVN. WAS. NOT. A. BADDIE.

We go after the one who made this revelation (I initially voted for Johho without reading the thread and seeing what had happened). Why go after someone we think may have pulled the strings, instead of going after the one who actually committed the crime?

You think he would have made that up knowing he'd be proven false in a few hours?

My guess is that some people fromJoho's pack- possibly including you-have been sent to "reason" with me-some of them even pretending to temporarily take my side only to be "convinced" that it's really adamus who we ought to focus upon, all in the hopes that it convinces the undecided innocent villagers.

 

[Cliges]

Adamus lost all credibility when he declared AVN to be a baddie and AVN was not a baddie.

If the game doesn't end before it happens-YOU will lose all credibility when what I'm saying is proven right.

 

[XenomorphII]

ADAMUS. REVEALED. THAT. AVN. WAS. A. BADDIE. AND. AVN. WAS. NOT. A. BADDIE.

We go after the one who made this revelation (I initially voted for Johho without reading the thread and seeing what had happened). Why go after someone we think may have pulled the strings, instead of going after the one who actually committed the crime?

The main reason is because someone inside the JL was definitely a leak. We know this because Adamus was fairly specific in his info on AVN.

Since he was obviously fed false info it stands to reason that he was a patsy for this. He may very well be a baddie, but I do not think he is involved with the group that orchestrated the death of the center of the JL and the ultimate outing of the seer (unless he is a brutal that they plan to use his lynching to remove someone that is dangerous to them, like a One Eye Open person). Anyway long story short, if you really want to kill him today (I would prefer a hunter shoot him tonight, and if he makes it to tomorrow then lynch him) at least tie him with the likely mastermind behind this (which I am inclined to believe is johho at this point).

EDIT: The above is incorrect, Adamus was possibly, but not necessarily, specific about AVN. I am leaving it and adding this:

After re-reading, it wasn't Adamus that talked about AVN being a turned wolf, he said he was a scanned Waffle in his announcement. Yakman was the one who directly floated this first(he seemed to be under the impression that Waffle is a term reserved solely for cursed persons that are turned, something which is news to me if true), and johho (who then asked why he thought that, at which point Yak explained as I just did about waffle's meaning). Most of the other talk only really kicked in today.

Another reason not to blindly run after Adamus, is that it will allow the baddies more time to act. They already have a list of all players scanned by the seer, a dead seer, and a dead JL center. Do you really want to give them more time to try to find out if EL had an apprentice, or to find the priest (if there is one, hard to say with the number of priestly power folks). We need to be careful of who to lynch today, and not just go straight after the patsy that was set out for us to run at (I am inclined to believe that Adamus is just a patsy here, but it isn't the only possibility, I just want people to not just blindly go on this vote).

 

[Cliges]

Yep. And even if there were some compromise to go with adamus, and he turned out clean, next night, instead of Joho, I'm sure that they would ignore him again and instead go after someone who was an early voter for adamus!

I really doubt that I will survive this game, the prospects aren't looking especially bright for villagers, but I'll be content enough if the person behind the wolves' big play isn't still standing if and when his team celebrates.

 

[Trinitrotoluen]

vote Adamus

while I start reading this whole mess.

 

[reis91]

I am disappointed, Johho... held you up in a higher regard than... this.

My reasoning will come shortly, but I am now certain that Johho is indeed a wolf. I believe it to be so evident that, after I present my evidence, this day will be wasted, in terms of analysis. That does not worry me, however, as I have been able to use this fact to figure out a great deal about this game. Some of it will have to become evident already, other things will be made clear at a more oportune time, and others are yet to be figured out.

reis - not as talkative as he sometimes is

Always happy to oblige.

 

[Trinitrotoluen]

unvote Adamus, vote johho

reis, johho can't be a wolf as we was scanned by E_L but it is likely that he is a cultist (and he does have a penchant for trying to infiltrate JLs). What I think may have happened is that he tried to get Adamus to out AVN and get his pack to hunt Adamus during the night to get rid of the incriminating evidence. The end result would be that with his mouthpiece the Seer would have to take risks and johho's pack would at the very least gain some more useful information. Then E_L panicked and a wolf hunted him instead...

But I remain willing to be persuaded otherwise so if our top contestants have any evidence now would be a very good time to share it.

 

[reis91]

unvote Adamus, vote johho

reis, johho can't be a wolf as we was scanned by E_L but it is likely that he is a cultist (and he does have a penchant for trying to infiltrate JLs). What I think may have happened is that he tried to get Adamus to out AVN and get his pack to hunt Adamus during the night to get rid of the incriminating evidence. The end result would be that with his mouthpiece the Seer would have to take risks and johho's pack would at the very least gain some more useful information. Then E_L panicked and a wolf hunted him instead...

But I remain willing to be persuaded otherwise so if our top contestants have any evidence now would be a very good time to share it.

Yes, you are right, he'd be a cultist, not a wolf, which I erroneously used as a generic term for baddie. I also would like to take back my disappointment about Johho, but I still maintain my certainty that he is a baddie. I'm working on the analysis post, which is growing a bit too large for my taste...

 

[reis91]

Now, I think that, in order to figure out Johho, one should first look into the most interesting events surrounding the outing and death of Xarkan, the cultist.

Actually, no. I do not believe that Xarkan is a bad guy - or at least not bad enough to lynch.

If he's a baddie who outed Euroo7 to gain the trust of anyone, then he's a bad guy... and that's why he wasn't lynched... or hunted...

on the other hand...

EUROO7 is a guy who actually does get scanned early by a lot of players because he's flamboyant and some people think that he's really good at playing werewolf. It's quite likely that a guy like Xarkan with a one-off power is going to pick a player like EUROO7 to scan.

As far as outing him right away goes, I probably would have sent a few random PMs, but that's my style, erratic, stupid, and predicated on being nominated for best supporting actor.

But Xarkan went ahead and outed him...

I think Xarkan is telling the truth. Now, I know that I was the guy who originally posited that it was an intra-pack outing, but I am not convinced of that right now and believe that Comm Cody is probably a wolf so let's all

LYNCH COMM CODY

and watch what Xarkan does.

Yakman proposes to lynch Comm Cody instead of Xarkan. More than the action itself, the manner of doing so is most enlightening. His so called "truth bombs", which are actually smoke bombs, something I have used in WW in the past, cover up his attempt to get the vote to shift away from Xarkan in a manner which could, in his view, not be traced back to him in any serious manner. Note how he takes great care to remember everyone about his "style of play".

What the hell is wrong you Yak. First you are wasting villagers time with your random picks and then you disassociate yourself from the results…… you know what? I did not vote cody either and at the same time I get the blame…

Without any meaning from now, but in the light of later facts...

Ok fine, but you still have not changed the vote away from me. Vote Adamus, unless he is your furry friend. They key is to move away from yak and myself as this is just playing into wolfs paws.....

Oh Split, ever so subtle, eh?

i would like to know why the_split is condemning adamus.

also, would people be interested in looking at lynching XARKAN? EUROO7 has been a quiet ghost...

Yakman introduces Xarkan as a possibility, without voting him, and then EL seems to agree, although due to a different reasoning.

I personally am willing to enterain Xarkan. He did get us a wolf, but then we had 2 nights of no hunts. The first might have been a GA protect on but I think that the second might have been a curse turn on him. I really don't see the wolves not hunting him at this point of the game without good reason. Him being one might be a good reason.

And then some big lettering from SPLIT...

All need to vote Xarkan, a possible waffle.

And EL goes defensive over Xarkan when confronted by me.

But like I said, I was only willing to entertain the idea of him being someone to go for, or I would have already thrown my vote on him.

SPLIT starts campaigning a bit more seriously to kill Xarkan...

I do try to be a bit vocal in all my games but only when I see common sense hats being left at the door….Xarkan is a good suspect mainly because he is still here. Outing on first night is something rare for the seer to do, and not being hunted for it is even stranger. So far we have roughly 3 equal possibilities 1)Xarkan was a baddie from the start, 2) Xarkan was turned to a baddie, 3) Xarkan is still a goodie. I rather take by 66% chance of killing a baddie today.

And Yakman points out that EL gave a "solid argument" to lynch Xarkan.

eternaly_lost made a solid argument on lynching XARKAN.

And then personally defends SPLIT's "soft-outing".

with the no-hunts it is the only compelling argument.

here's a thought:

Night 2 - Xarkan was hunted by one pack after outing EUROO7. RANDAKAR saved him
Night 3 - He was hunted the next night turned... and told his new buddies that Randakar was the doc...

Wouldn't work with alternating hunt days, but the GM could have set up an alternative system - I've done so in the past. Could also be one big pack, but I doubt it.

Or Randy just randomly reached out to XARKAN.

This was obviously a very poor attempt, which EL not-so graciously points out

You should really think about what you are saying here Split. You are starting to convince me that you two are wolfs trying to save each other and not humans that are throwing things around. There is a hole so big in what Yakman said that I am wondering if he is posting well he is drunk or something.

SPLIT being SPLIT...

EL it is the conclusion that matters not the discussion.
Suppose, we discard what was previously posted and I tell you that you are trying to lynch a SA villager who was scanned by Xarkan yesterday? Or suppose I told you that I am in the contact with a priest who scanned Xarkan? Usually when people stick their neck out so early in the game, as we did it, means something for the villagers. Wolfs tend to stay low early in the game as they are on a numeric disadvantage.
Regardless of the reason as to how I know that Xarkan is a baddie, I do. So you either use that info to lynch a baddie or continue to write off what I am telling you……

Thanks for confirming you are a baddie, or are in contact with a baddie, because a scan would reveal that I am a villager.

Rereading this put a smile on my face. And an interesting thought in my brain...

Split argues for a while, and then proceeds with declaring Xarkan a scanned cultist. This was where it clicked in.

This is a waste of post. Did I expect you to say that ohh no you guys have found me out, I surrender? Why even post this. Also your post is a typical wolf comeback to an accusation.

Official outing Xarkan is a scanned cultist Xarkan is to be lynched right now. I also have one eye open so wolfs I invite you to come and get it.

And Johho steps in...

That is the problem, isn't it? I'm all for going along with an outing but when the one doing the outing is the current vote leader...

Why would the priest (or a priestly powered one) do the outing through THE_SPLIT?

Ever the devil's advocate, eh? Another one...

First Xarkan was a "possible waffle" according to SPLIT.

Then Xarkan was a wolf:


Now he is a scanned cultist?

Why should we believe this?

OTOH at first Yakman and SPLIT were at each others throats and now they are both going after Xarkan in a Yakman type of "certain baddie" attack. I wonder why?

But at the same time I don't recall SPLIT being quite as loud and switching votes around as last night when he was a wolf.

Does any of you remember if Xarkan has been a seer/priest in any previous games? I'm asking because I wonder if he could actually be a newbie seer that panic outed EURO day 1 or if he is so experienced he would know not to do that? Lynching a seerish powered guy is no big deal if it means we can lynch a baddie the next day but lynching the seer would be a bit unfortunate...

Split posts again, and turns his batteries to Johho. It fits in my view of the events, too.

Johho, what you are posting actually also smells of wolf, but you have played this for a long time, so I realize you just might be hiding something else….
To distill for you. 1)there is an outing 2) you either believe it or you do not. 3) based on that your vote will be analyzed at a later point in the game. I am not a fan of fake outings….
How I got this info is irrelevant – you would have to be an utter fool to think that I would reveal where this info is coming from.

Yakman reminds SPLIT of his promise to put up a list...

wondering where that list of SPLIT suspected baddies is...

And it shows up... this will be quite important later on...

Suspect list is
Adamus,
Whoever the 3rd vote for me was at the end of today.
AVN/Johho.

And esemesas pulls out the Sniper and screws up the day for our wolves.

I'll add to it.

Unvote Xarkan
Vote AVN

Now, my interpretation of the day's events.

Yakman sacrificed his already quite-exposed cultist to build up an Injustice League. He did so by going over to SPLIT, and letting him know Xarkan was a scanned cultist. By doing so, he hoped to create an IJL around him and SPLIT, with SPLIT being the speaker, which conveniently keeps Yakman safe and in the loop for everything. All he'd have to do would be to wait for the Seer to scan and contact SPLIT, and voila, the whole goodie side compromised. A good plan, but the execution wasn't as good as the plan.

So, we already have a wolf's name, do we not? Why Johho, then? Well, Johho played the classic devil's advocate, something which is usually done when you know what is being done and want to distance yourself from it. But we have better evidence ahead, in the following days...

 

[trespoe]

I've already explained this.

The seer was EL. His first scan, contact and go between was AVN. However, the seer cannot scan for cultists. Just wolves. The cleared players didn't know each other-AVN communicated to all the cleared players individually.

Last night, EL scanned Joho as clear. Joho is a cultist. When AVN contacted Joho to tell him he was clear and that he was the speaker for the seer, Joho made a PM to Adamus to falsely state that AVN was a turned wolf in one of the early non hunting nights.

Adamus went public with this false information. The scanned players thought AVN is a traitor until it was revealed false when the vote count was acted upon. While al this is going on The seer-EL- panics and ALSO thinks AVN is betraying him and publicly reveals the scanned list-and outs himself publicly as seer in the process.

The wolves, however, didnt anticipate the last part, which outed joho as cultist. Worse for the village, EL's self outing made him the target of last nights hunt. The false info on AVN inspired many to vote for him.

This is where we are now. Joho is obviously the link because he was last scanned. Otherwise, all of this would have happened already.

B.S.

Adamus stated he had a seerish scan and used it on AVN. I DID ask if this was info forwarded to him or not.

Now, another member of the JL is slated to die by lynching. AOK would be proud.

 

[trespoe]

The appropriate posts:

I am no seer. I am a villager with seerish powers. I scanned avn last night and was told he was a werewolf. I do not know whether he was turned or when he was turned no information was given. I waited to till the late day as per normal outing standards (i hate early outings there wasteful). I have no doubt EL is the seer. GA you know what to do. Beleive me or dont the choice is yours. Would kind of suck to get lynched when youve outed someone

well.... crap on a stick!

unvote EL

that is the best I can do.

I really want to believe all three of them: AVN, EL, and Adamus. but someone is lying and I am not sure who.

EL has a great list there. If he wasn't the seer, that is a bunch of stuff to come up with. So I believe him.

AVN was scanned before the no hunts. So it is possible he is turned. Adamus is not claiming seer, but seerish powers. So that would fit.
But I don't see a wolf allowing the seer to live a bunch of days like this unless he could see an advantage (like getting the other pack).
I also wonder if Adamus is a cultist here and his pack see AVN as a good person.

Adamus: Please just tell us if you are relaying what someone else told you. I know that you said you have seerish powers, but we really need to know here.

Vote Adamus

That goes against my most basic principle of following outings. But this seems the best choice and there are things I am thinking but not saying. And Adamus' status will tell us about AVN and the rest.

Bolded are important parts

 

[trespoe]

tomorrow my vote is on Cliges..... put that down in the notes.....