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I'm suspicious of why Panzer suddenly got run up at the end yesterday. He went from no votes to getting lynched, on the basis of him not having voted yet. It's day 1, sure, but as Alynkio noted Panzer's known to be more likely to be unengaged as a goodie than a baddie, something that was ultimately borne out this time. If this had been a more drawn out process over the day, I'd write it off as day 1 nonsense, but this all happened in the twenty five minutes until deadline. More importantly, aside from Deathbywombat's agreement that panzer's activity was more likely to indicate him as a villager and his subsequent vote switch to a throwaway on Arkasas.

With the list of candidates being fairly large yesterday, I think there's a decent chance someone saw a chance to protect a packmate in danger by pushing up Panzer. The logic to switch to him was weak, Matthew had also not yet voted and was starting to go up as a result, but then Deathbywombat asked why single out him and then Panzer was the CAWZ candidate (ignoring the fact that CAWZ on day 1 is stupid). Aside from the Panzer voters, I'm a little suspicious of Deathbywombat being active near deadline and setting these events in motion, agreeing with Alynkio that inactive Panzer would be more likely to be villager Panzer, then trying to make Arkasas a candidate from next to nothing, with about 12 minutes to deadline. He said he'd break the tie if it stood at deadline, but Latinkaiser broke it instead. I don't know how close to deadline Latin's snipe was, so maybe he did it with enough time that Deathbywombat saw and so didn't snipe. Also Arkasas did turn out to be a baddie, so Deathbywombat's somewhat unlikely to be from his pack.

...

However it's Spockyt that I think is the actual most suspicious from yesterday. His vote on Panzer was the second, a crucial bit of momentum to allow the possibility of Panzer becoming the CAWZ candidate rather than Matthew. Also while third voters are often cited as the most notable and associated with baddies, this is known. Putting up a third, or in yesterday's situation a fourth, vote on a candidate would have put Spockyt under suspicion if the person he voted was lynched. And more importantly he was absent from that post until deadline, then popped up two minutes after the day 1 results to belatedly say Arkasas was a good candidate. This smacks to me of a baddie wanting to avoid deadline attention, but still wants to get cheap villager points with idle comments after it's over. More likely to be wolfish than villagerish in my book.

Vote Spockyt

My thought process was that of two candidates with exact cases, the one who wasn't getting votes originally would be more likely to be a baddie than otherwise (think ramius and nepechri in the last big we played). Obviously, with Panzer flipping villager, that calculus was obviously wrong. Regardless, if Matthew is killed and flips baddie, than Alynkio/Agatha are more likely goodies that otherwise (as #1 and #2 voters on Matthew). If Matthew flips goodie, however... they might well be taking the pressure off other frontrunners, of which there were 3 at the time.

Also should note that that is why I dislike CAWZ cases day 1 - important goodies can't defend themselves if they have a major role.

Also, I did see LKs snipe before deadline, and thus felt no need to snipe. Also, would have switched to Panzer with my snipe (although I have no way of proving that) because of a mild Marco day 1 villager read.

I got the part about guilds from the setup but why would they be infinite?

*checks the rules more carefully*

Right, the councils get replacements if members die. That seems a bit harsh on the bad guys so I wonder what counterbalance the GM put in for that. Do I really have to read the rest of the rules as well?

Yeah, I noticed this as well. More on this later.

Ah the game of werewolf, where the village lynches the village and the wolves hunt the wolves in a race to see which side can self-destruct more slowly.

2 dead baddies from 2 packs at the start of day 2. Not a bad start, though the baddies did die before they could yield much voting info. Probably a bit small to be a 3 pack game, my guess is 2 packs of 4, a sorc, and a free cultist.

... Huge wall of text

Merely pointing out that he's activated earlier than normal. That's a ... good sign, I guess? Curious to hear about the reasoning behind EURO's hunch, b/c I'm not seeing it here, and I'm usually pretty suspicious of alynkio.

I agree that I was partially responsible for Panzer being killed, however I don't think my logic yesterday, which was that the two cases against Matthew and Panzer were entirely equal, yet Matthew was getting votes while Panzer was getting a pass, was inherently flawed. I wasn't absent from then to deadline, I just didn't have anything extra to say, I was content with how things were playing out. I never put much stock into "this person is more likely to be inactive as a goodie". About Arkasas, it was a silly thing to post, essentially the celebratory version of "we lost the seer", but personally, I'm not a believer in killing someone for a joke, and frankly, I believe that comment (which is a fairly obviously unwise thing to say) sort of counteracts the idea of me not wanting attention at deadline. Besides, I may have been away a long time, but you remember how I play, I'm sure. I'm always suspicious.

Yeah, spock seems more villagerish to me than otherwise (although in this case I think it's because he's a bit more aggressive towards Yakman, which I generally take as a sign of villagerish activity).

Don't really get dbw's behavior yesterday - why try to run up arky after the voters (well, only Euro really) on him had gone away, a couple minutes to deadline ? Puzzling. It was bound to produce nothing, as it inevitably did.

LK's not too suspicious imho, and if you disagree you'll have to explain me how blind Day 1 TIES benefit the village in any way, shape or form

...

There's not even an explanation there. He/she was either trying to take the steam off the top candidates, or was afraid of casting a decisive vote and decided to waste it at a time when events were set in motion.

Vote Witch Agatha

The arky case was to highlight the fact that he got no traction from the village despite being fingered by EURO, who is usually convincing at getting the village to make moves. I thought it curious enough to warrant attention, but unfortunately it came too late to make difference.

Also, currently nonplussed at the case - or more accurately, this particular case - on Agatha at best. We don't know Matthew's role yet, and he would have been a major day 1 case (he already had 3 votes) had I not intervened. I'd want to see Matthew's role before voting Agatha.
 
Couple of things:
  1. Arkasas had a throwaway on Dedonus day 1. Could be bad alibi.
  2. Euro tried to get traction on Arky yesterday. Capi asked why but ignored the non reason Euro gave. deathbywombat jumped on close to deadline when it wasn't going anywhere and stayed on, seemingly surprised a non-case went nowhere. The hunt could be either Euro or dbw wanting to follow through with their thoughts.
  3. Very little acknowledgement that Panzer was a part of a "seer council" except johho and alynkio on the side. I presume this means the lot of you have more information on this than I do and see no reason to discuss it, or you're doing that behind closed doors. Now does this mean there is no seer?
  4. Culann videofanning seer is dead.
I like cases based 1 and 4. Let's try 4 first.

Vote Culann

Quick note on point 3 - I specifically asked alxeu about this in PM because the committee thing seemed weird, and got this response:

"We lost one of a unknown-sized group of people who perform seer scans.

If he was the sole seer, I would have colored his name light blue."

So there's apparently still a seer/group of seers somewhere, which is good news. Also, from his reaction, apparently Culann is not one of them - nor is he likely to be in another big goodie committee (as he would probably be familiar with the mechanic), which is noteworthy. Interesting. Maybe worth a vote? Not sure yet.
 
Original vote was a placeholder, but I'd like to see way more out of Audren than we've currently seen, and my vote remains there for now.

Also would like to see more out of a few other people - Graymarch, Beartjah and FatWombat, specifically.
 
Original vote was a placeholder, but I'd like to see way more out of Audren than we've currently seen, and my vote remains there for now.

Also would like to see more out of a few other people - Graymarch, Beartjah and FatWombat, specifically.

Ask and ye shall receive. The combination of your post and Sleepyhead's about Culann is quite compelling to me. I don't know what percentage of goodies are likely to be part of committees, but not being part of one is presumably a better sign of being evil, all else equal. Combined with the weird videofanning and I quite like Culann as a candidate.

VOTE CULANN
 
Also would like to see more out of a few other people - Graymarch, Beartjah and FatWombat, specifically.
I read you but don't have more to add than yesterday

I'm not sure we can say much about day 1 votes. I know that some advocates TIEs are good for the village, or bad. So, cannot say much about the changes and sniping
Spockyt's post just after the results did not seem fishy (wolfy) to me, so I would not condemn him for that reason.
Capibara's reaction raises suspicion but still, it's so thin...
 
Unofficial Vote Count

Capibara
: 2 [0>1>2]
the_hdk [259] [1]
MatthewFW [265] [2]

Yakman: 2 [0>1>2]
Spockyt [263] [1]
Culann [Dedonus 253 > No Vote 267 > 273] [1>->2]

Culann: 2 [0>1>2]
Sleepyhead [280] [1]
Audren [284] [2]

De Chat: 1 [0>1]
Avernite [246]

alynkio: 1 [0>1]
EUROO7 [247]

R.Graymarch: 1 [0>1]
Dedonus [250]

EUROO7: 1 [0>1]
Wagonlitz [251]

MatthewFW: 1 [0>1]
Yakman [MarcoRossolini 257 > 261] [1>1]

Audren: 1 [0>1]
Deathbywombat [269]

Spockyt: 1 [0>1]
Aedan [272]

Claude LC: 1 [0>1]
Liefwarrior [276]

Liefwarrior: 1 [0>1]
alynkio [278]

Witch Agatha: 1 [0>1]
Yvanoff [279]

MarcoRossolini: 0 [0>1>0]

Dedonus: 0 [0>1]

Not Voted: 10 :mad:
@Capibara
@LatinKaiser
@De Chatillôn
@Claude LC
@Witch Agatha
R.Graymarch
Beartjah
Johho
MarcoRossolini
TheFatWombat
 
Ask and ye shall receive. The combination of your post and Sleepyhead's about Culann is quite compelling to me. I don't know what percentage of goodies are likely to be part of committees, but not being part of one is presumably a better sign of being evil, all else equal. Combined with the weird videofanning and I quite like Culann as a candidate.

VOTE CULANN

Interesting point.

Unvote Audren
Vote Beartjah


Let's see if we can get some more ideas flowing. @beartjah , thoughts so far?
 
Ask and ye shall receive. The combination of your post and Sleepyhead's about Culann is quite compelling to me. I don't know what percentage of goodies are likely to be part of committees, but not being part of one is presumably a better sign of being evil, all else equal. Combined with the weird videofanning and I quite like Culann as a candidate.

VOTE CULANN
I'd say it must be very unlikely that a baddie doesn't have at least one packmate in a guild. Of course they might not have discussed how the guild worked it in the pack, Culann is just faking it or he is a free baddie. Still I think I rather

vote Audren
 
Interesting point.

Unvote Audren
Vote Beartjah


Let's see if we can get some more ideas flowing. @beartjah , thoughts so far?
My main thoughts atm are me being a bit tired. Some exhausting stuff came up so I haven't really followed the thread as well as a should've, I'm currently still trying to make some sense out of what happened yesterday and the cases of today.
 
I'd say it must be very unlikely that a baddie doesn't have at least one packmate in a guild.
I don't think it's possible to be both a member of a "guild" AND a baddie. Being a member of the Seer council is a role in and of itself, according to the rules. So a baddie member of such a council would have two roles... Which sounds strange.

Additionally, the rules states that initial members of councils will NOT be cursed, so it really doesn't sound at all like the idea is to infiltrate the councils with waffles (who would otherwise have free hunts on council members). Note that people drafted into councils to make up for losses can be cursed, however

Of course it's all up to the GM's discretion, but that's how I'm understanding the rules anyway
 
Couple of things:
  1. Arkasas had a throwaway on Dedonus day 1. Could be bad alibi.
  2. Euro tried to get traction on Arky yesterday. Capi asked why but ignored the non reason Euro gave. deathbywombat jumped on close to deadline when it wasn't going anywhere and stayed on, seemingly surprised a non-case went nowhere. The hunt could be either Euro or dbw wanting to follow through with their thoughts.
  3. Very little acknowledgement that Panzer was a part of a "seer council" except johho and alynkio on the side. I presume this means the lot of you have more information on this than I do and see no reason to discuss it, or you're doing that behind closed doors. Now does this mean there is no seer?
  4. Culann videofanning seer is dead.
I like cases based 1 and 4. Let's try 4 first.

Vote Culann
Ask and ye shall receive. The combination of your post and Sleepyhead's about Culann is quite compelling to me. I don't know what percentage of goodies are likely to be part of committees, but not being part of one is presumably a better sign of being evil, all else equal. Combined with the weird videofanning and I quite like Culann as a candidate.

VOTE CULANN
All good points here. After his premature demise last game, I bet that a baddie!Culann would overcorrect this game and try too hard to appear as a villager. Videonfanning, though often a spurious allegation, is usually a symptom of a poorly disguised baddie. Additionally, I'm not impressed with his sloppy attempts at analysis thus far, trying to kill a highly active and useful player like Dedonus because he misread the votecount. And then he simply retracted his vote instead of switching to Graymarch or EURO, two players that he noted in his analysis struck him as possibly wolfish. Seems like an overly cautious waffle to me.

Vote Culann
 
My main thoughts atm are me being a bit tired. Some exhausting stuff came up so I haven't really followed the thread as well as a should've, I'm currently still trying to make some sense out of what happened yesterday and the cases of today.

Fair enough, so far as it goes, and it is day 2. I do remember you as a solid villager analyst, however, and hope to see more from you in the future.

I don't think it's possible to be both a member of a "guild" AND a baddie. Being a member of the Seer council is a role in and of itself, according to the rules. So a baddie member of such a council would have two roles... Which sounds strange.

Additionally, the rules states that initial members of councils will NOT be cursed, so it really doesn't sound at all like the idea is to infiltrate the councils with waffles (who would otherwise have free hunts on council members). Note that people drafted into councils to make up for losses can be cursed, however

Of course it's all up to the GM's discretion, but that's how I'm understanding the rules anyway

I'm actually inclined to agree with Yvanoff here, until I see evidence pointing in another direction.

Unvote Beartjah
Vote TheFatWombat


My fellow marsupial, do you have any thoughts on the game thusfar?
 
I'd say it must be very unlikely that a baddie doesn't have at least one packmate in a guild. Of course they might not have discussed how the guild worked it in the pack, Culann is just faking it or he is a free baddie. Still I think I rather

vote Audren

Fair point, there's nothing to suggest that guilds can't have baddies. I'm just saying that I suspect there's more baddies that aren't in guilds than are.
 
Not sure how your fair point translates into a vote for me though, tbh.
 
I don't think it's possible to be both a member of a "guild" AND a baddie. Being a member of the Seer council is a role in and of itself, according to the rules. So a baddie member of such a council would have two roles... Which sounds strange.

Additionally, the rules states that initial members of councils will NOT be cursed, so it really doesn't sound at all like the idea is to infiltrate the councils with waffles (who would otherwise have free hunts on council members). Note that people drafted into councils to make up for losses can be cursed, however

Of course it's all up to the GM's discretion, but that's how I'm understanding the rules anyway

Mmmm I agree with Johho here, I don't see why a baddie couldn't be part of a guild, I didn't see anything in the rules that implies something like that. Don't know if Alxeu can clarify it but the logic (and the experience in other games) says baddies in council is something possible. The fact that Audren says other way in order to create a case gives baddie vibes. So I will push him a little bit.

Vote Audren.
 
Hm, reading the rules it does indeed look like council members are goodie roles like Yvanoff says. But in that case there are quite a lot of people who can vouch for eachother as safe goodies.

@alxeu: Is council member a goodie role?
 
VOTE CAPIBARA

I'm not able to really think and anaylse even just the cases that were presented, so I'll just make a tie(at least, I think this is a tie) and call it a day. Hopefully I should've recovered tomorrow and come with some proper thinking.

(edit to make the vote larger/bolder)