I'm suspicious of why Panzer suddenly got run up at the end yesterday. He went from no votes to getting lynched, on the basis of him not having voted yet. It's day 1, sure, but as Alynkio noted Panzer's known to be more likely to be unengaged as a goodie than a baddie, something that was ultimately borne out this time. If this had been a more drawn out process over the day, I'd write it off as day 1 nonsense, but this all happened in the twenty five minutes until deadline. More importantly, aside from Deathbywombat's agreement that panzer's activity was more likely to indicate him as a villager and his subsequent vote switch to a throwaway on Arkasas.
With the list of candidates being fairly large yesterday, I think there's a decent chance someone saw a chance to protect a packmate in danger by pushing up Panzer. The logic to switch to him was weak, Matthew had also not yet voted and was starting to go up as a result, but then Deathbywombat asked why single out him and then Panzer was the CAWZ candidate (ignoring the fact that CAWZ on day 1 is stupid). Aside from the Panzer voters, I'm a little suspicious of Deathbywombat being active near deadline and setting these events in motion, agreeing with Alynkio that inactive Panzer would be more likely to be villager Panzer, then trying to make Arkasas a candidate from next to nothing, with about 12 minutes to deadline. He said he'd break the tie if it stood at deadline, but Latinkaiser broke it instead. I don't know how close to deadline Latin's snipe was, so maybe he did it with enough time that Deathbywombat saw and so didn't snipe. Also Arkasas did turn out to be a baddie, so Deathbywombat's somewhat unlikely to be from his pack.
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However it's Spockyt that I think is the actual most suspicious from yesterday. His vote on Panzer was the second, a crucial bit of momentum to allow the possibility of Panzer becoming the CAWZ candidate rather than Matthew. Also while third voters are often cited as the most notable and associated with baddies, this is known. Putting up a third, or in yesterday's situation a fourth, vote on a candidate would have put Spockyt under suspicion if the person he voted was lynched. And more importantly he was absent from that post until deadline, then popped up two minutes after the day 1 results to belatedly say Arkasas was a good candidate. This smacks to me of a baddie wanting to avoid deadline attention, but still wants to get cheap villager points with idle comments after it's over. More likely to be wolfish than villagerish in my book.
Vote Spockyt
My thought process was that of two candidates with exact cases, the one who wasn't getting votes originally would be more likely to be a baddie than otherwise (think ramius and nepechri in the last big we played). Obviously, with Panzer flipping villager, that calculus was obviously wrong. Regardless, if Matthew is killed and flips baddie, than Alynkio/Agatha are more likely goodies that otherwise (as #1 and #2 voters on Matthew). If Matthew flips goodie, however... they might well be taking the pressure off other frontrunners, of which there were 3 at the time.
Also should note that that is why I dislike CAWZ cases day 1 - important goodies can't defend themselves if they have a major role.
Also, I did see LKs snipe before deadline, and thus felt no need to snipe. Also, would have switched to Panzer with my snipe (although I have no way of proving that) because of a mild Marco day 1 villager read.
I got the part about guilds from the setup but why would they be infinite?
*checks the rules more carefully*
Right, the councils get replacements if members die. That seems a bit harsh on the bad guys so I wonder what counterbalance the GM put in for that. Do I really have to read the rest of the rules as well?
Yeah, I noticed this as well. More on this later.
Ah the game of werewolf, where the village lynches the village and the wolves hunt the wolves in a race to see which side can self-destruct more slowly.
2 dead baddies from 2 packs at the start of day 2. Not a bad start, though the baddies did die before they could yield much voting info. Probably a bit small to be a 3 pack game, my guess is 2 packs of 4, a sorc, and a free cultist.
... Huge wall of text
Merely pointing out that he's activated earlier than normal. That's a ... good sign, I guess? Curious to hear about the reasoning behind EURO's hunch, b/c I'm not seeing it here, and I'm usually pretty suspicious of alynkio.
I agree that I was partially responsible for Panzer being killed, however I don't think my logic yesterday, which was that the two cases against Matthew and Panzer were entirely equal, yet Matthew was getting votes while Panzer was getting a pass, was inherently flawed. I wasn't absent from then to deadline, I just didn't have anything extra to say, I was content with how things were playing out. I never put much stock into "this person is more likely to be inactive as a goodie". About Arkasas, it was a silly thing to post, essentially the celebratory version of "we lost the seer", but personally, I'm not a believer in killing someone for a joke, and frankly, I believe that comment (which is a fairly obviously unwise thing to say) sort of counteracts the idea of me not wanting attention at deadline. Besides, I may have been away a long time, but you remember how I play, I'm sure. I'm always suspicious.
Yeah, spock seems more villagerish to me than otherwise (although in this case I think it's because he's a bit more aggressive towards Yakman, which I generally take as a sign of villagerish activity).
Don't really get dbw's behavior yesterday - why try to run up arky after the voters (well, only Euro really) on him had gone away, a couple minutes to deadline ? Puzzling. It was bound to produce nothing, as it inevitably did.
LK's not too suspicious imho, and if you disagree you'll have to explain me how blind Day 1 TIES benefit the village in any way, shape or form
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There's not even an explanation there. He/she was either trying to take the steam off the top candidates, or was afraid of casting a decisive vote and decided to waste it at a time when events were set in motion.
Vote Witch Agatha
The arky case was to highlight the fact that he got no traction from the village despite being fingered by EURO, who is usually convincing at getting the village to make moves. I thought it curious enough to warrant attention, but unfortunately it came too late to make difference.
Also, currently nonplussed at the case - or more accurately, this particular case - on Agatha at best. We don't know Matthew's role yet, and he would have been a major day 1 case (he already had 3 votes) had I not intervened. I'd want to see Matthew's role before voting Agatha.