Two seer committee members lynched but none eaten. Not really sure how to interpret that. Or even if I want to dive into guild analysis and the madness involved.
-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Well it suggests to me that the committee is a mess but not actively evil.
On balance I think Audren and Culann are slightly less likely baddies, as Euro was happy to risk their death. Not sure where Culann's PM shenanigans went to, though.
As a placeholder I will pick a target that apparently only participates when voted upon:
vote @Claude LC
You confused me with DBW.
I was the last minute vote for Capi, not him.
You might try reading the starting posts of this thread. I know, I rarely read it too.
Yes, very impressive, lynching the seers, while the wolves hunt each other. Truly revolutionary.
.png){kind=avatar}
Hey, if they kill the wolves before we kill the seers, I'm okay with that.
Give me a break. You're both Wombats who have names with three words (and the same about of syllables).You confused me with DBW.
Also fixed.
Just sick of his trolling, wouldn't even be a loss if he was a villager.
Vote Yakman
Vote Yakman
I feel like we're likely to find a wolf or two involved in those last minute shenanigans, so let's take a look at who switched onto our innocent villager.
1. Audren
The obvious rationale behind this vote is self-preservation. Nothing super suspicious in their history either, so not much to go off here. Possibly connected to Culann or Yakman, who both put early votes down but moved off at the first opportunity on Day 1. The least suspicious of the switchers.
2. TheFatWombat
This switch doesn't make sense to me coming from a villager, but nor does it make sense coming from a villager. First of all, the vote is completely impractical, and its only possible purpose is reputation. As a villager, you don't have any idea if Capibara is a wolf or not, so no purpose voting here. A wolf looking at it would know that Capibara wasn't part of at least one pack, halving the chance that they are a wolf, and so wouldn't vote because of the ill repute one gains from jumping on a villager-destined bandwagon at the last moment. I'm currently putting the logic of this vote as a villager at 0%, and its logic as a wolf (for the pure confusion factor) at 2%, so leaning more bad than good, but not enough for a conviction.
3. Aeden
My favourite candidate from this trio, offering absolutely no reasoning for their vote and pushing our innocent council-member into the hot seat. Probably not enough to get them lynched, but still, time to turn up the heat and see if we can smoke out a confession or two.
vote Aeden
1. Audren
The obvious rationale behind this vote is self-preservation. Nothing super suspicious in their history either, so not much to go off here. Possibly connected to Culann or Yakman, who both put early votes down but moved off at the first opportunity on Day 1. The least suspicious of the switchers.
2. TheFatWombat
This switch doesn't make sense to me coming from a villager, but nor does it make sense coming from a villager. First of all, the vote is completely impractical, and its only possible purpose is reputation. As a villager, you don't have any idea if Capibara is a wolf or not, so no purpose voting here. A wolf looking at it would know that Capibara wasn't part of at least one pack, halving the chance that they are a wolf, and so wouldn't vote because of the ill repute one gains from jumping on a villager-destined bandwagon at the last moment. I'm currently putting the logic of this vote as a villager at 0%, and its logic as a wolf (for the pure confusion factor) at 2%, so leaning more bad than good, but not enough for a conviction.
3. Aeden
My favourite candidate from this trio, offering absolutely no reasoning for their vote and pushing our innocent council-member into the hot seat. Probably not enough to get them lynched, but still, time to turn up the heat and see if we can smoke out a confession or two.
vote Aeden
Before the switch to Panzer on Day 1, there were three main candidates: Claude, MarcoRossolini, and Avernite. After the switch to Panzer, Avernite fell the farthest from 4 to 2 votes, while Claude only lost 1 (Witch Agatha's switch off of Claude here looks kind of suspicious. Maybe a spooked baddie when she realized her alibi vote had turned into a serious candidate) and Marco lost 0.
On day 2, Avernite made the argument that Marco could have been saved by the Panzer switch (which, I must admit, could be true). Yet he didn't do much with this case. He also placed the first (and sole) vote of the day on De Chat and never changed it.
I'm not 100% sure on this case, but I would like to see where it takes us.
vote Avernite
On day 2, Avernite made the argument that Marco could have been saved by the Panzer switch (which, I must admit, could be true). Yet he didn't do much with this case. He also placed the first (and sole) vote of the day on De Chat and never changed it.
I'm not 100% sure on this case, but I would like to see where it takes us.
vote Avernite
Also to add to the above, placeholder votes tend to become permanent votes. That goes for DBW, too.
The only way you can characterize me as giving no reasoning for voting Capibara is if you focus entirely on my vote post, and not the multiple other posts I made yesterday, one shortly before my vote switch, explaining why I was suspicious of Capibara, and less suspicious of the alternative candidates.
And on the subject of Cabipara, him being a seer council member is something that makes anti-sense, no reasonable person should have expected that. He made the decisive vote to put Panzer into a tie yesterday, despite them both being in the seer council. The councils probably aren't baddie free, but going straight to lynching each other is dumb, since most council members will be goodies and if you're wrong you're directly weakening the council and village as a whole. So not only do I not feel bad about causing Capibara to be lynched, but if I'd known he was on the seer council when he got Panzer lynched, I'd have been even more aggressive in getting him lynched; what he did was not villager behavior.
I don't know what exactly was going on with the Culann witness claim late yesterday, however I am curious that Alynkio came out about it, apparently to decrease the chances of Culann getting lynched, but without actually switching his vote off liefwarrior, who was a one vote non-candidate at that point. I find this especially notable since everyone else around at deadline made a vote switch to or from a main candidate. Since I'm still thinking Culann and Audren are more likely to be goodies, I read this as Alynkio not wanting to potentially get his hands dirty by being involved in the lynching of a villager, that might have happened if he voted Capibara or Audren to protect Culann. Already we have the regular peanut gallery today wanting to throw suspicion on those involved.
Vote Alynkio
Finally at my computer so I can do a proper reply and Oh boy a LOT to unpack here. D
I'm still not entirely sure what exactly video fanning means but I'm guessing it has to do with the perceived motivation of when I said:
It was a comment that the seer had died early in all 4 games I've played thus far, though I didn't understand the rules at the time about how the councils worked in Alexu's description. I picked that up later reading the thread. At any rate I'll keep those observations to myself knowing how it is perceived.
As for the PM questions Alynkio did contact me and asked if I had anything to offer the village. I did say I was a witness villager, in retrospect probably a bad idea since he made it public and I'm now a likely hunting target. Keep making rookie mistakes here.
The innuendo aside Audren was the third person to vote for Avernite, had I been around before deadline I would have switched back to Audren. I didn't vanished I went to sleep.
Dedonus didn't misread the vote count I did and I retracted my vote. Few hours later I did switch because as you pointed out my attempts at analysis has been sloppy, so I moved to a case I thought was better than mine. I'd like to point out I only made one case R.Graymarch and I said I couldn't read Euro and his case was CAWZ which I thought was standard day 1 stuff. Btw, waffle? I think I spent the most time in this game trying to decipher acronyms and phrases.
For the record I still can't read Euro and I think I'm not alone on that.
As LatinKaiser pointed out my analysis is sloppy so I'll refrain.
Sleepyhead has a point Deathbywombat wanted to try it but it didn't take. I'll take my lead from Sleepyhead the village did try 4 first and it revealed my role, now let's try 1.
Vote Dedonus
I'm still not entirely sure what exactly video fanning means but I'm guessing it has to do with the perceived motivation of when I said:
It was a comment that the seer had died early in all 4 games I've played thus far, though I didn't understand the rules at the time about how the councils worked in Alexu's description. I picked that up later reading the thread. At any rate I'll keep those observations to myself knowing how it is perceived.
As for the PM questions Alynkio did contact me and asked if I had anything to offer the village. I did say I was a witness villager, in retrospect probably a bad idea since he made it public and I'm now a likely hunting target. Keep making rookie mistakes here.
The innuendo aside Audren was the third person to vote for Avernite, had I been around before deadline I would have switched back to Audren. I didn't vanished I went to sleep.
Dedonus didn't misread the vote count I did and I retracted my vote. Few hours later I did switch because as you pointed out my attempts at analysis has been sloppy, so I moved to a case I thought was better than mine. I'd like to point out I only made one case R.Graymarch and I said I couldn't read Euro and his case was CAWZ which I thought was standard day 1 stuff. Btw, waffle? I think I spent the most time in this game trying to decipher acronyms and phrases.
For the record I still can't read Euro and I think I'm not alone on that.
As LatinKaiser pointed out my analysis is sloppy so I'll refrain.
Sleepyhead has a point Deathbywombat wanted to try it but it didn't take. I'll take my lead from Sleepyhead the village did try 4 first and it revealed my role, now let's try 1.
Vote Dedonus
Still I think Wombat makes more sense to run based on yesterday.
vote TheFatWombat
I believe this is a pretty clear case, for the information we have. Alynkio's behaviour is clearly weird.
UNvote Claude LC, Vote Alynkio
As my case from yesterday wants to try my other case I feel urged to follow.
Vote Dedonus
Vote Dedonus