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Would the next government keep him there, or barring his resignation could they replace him? Perhaps if he wasn't doing too well then Chamberlain would leave him to twist in the wind?
This is conjecture, because I'm leaning towards Churchill admitting defeat and resigning with what's left of his grace and honour before this is all over. What happens after that depends...he could well let his depression take him and commit suicide. He could be stuck in the wilderness forever. He could be booted to somewhere in the Empire where his gob could be of some use (Canada, the US?). Or sent to India with the slimmest hope of being rehabilitated if he does well, or at least doesn't mess things up further.

What is clear is that the hawks have been stuffed by this whole affair. No one left of relevance of that wing, and yet the doves are not going to be as well secured as they were OTL. Chamberlain, presuming he gets in, will not have the smooth run up to war (where he did start rearming, did start preparing, etc etc, whilst trying to stave off the war for as long as possible)...I suspect the UK is going to crash and burn in 1937, probably for most of the year. Nothing useful will be done until 1938, and that's too late.
 
Make the King really popular with voters, general election success riding off the back of that...and the establishment forces him out anyway. I don't think DLG has quite got this. The Church will not crown him, and will not accept the marriage. Parliament is at this point almost untied against him, personally, and everyone is pretty dead set against Wallis Simpson.
I confess that I am not entirely understanding this - yes the combined trifecta of Church, Parliament, and Civil Service/Establishment are too great to be overcome, but if DLG somehow pulls a whole rabbit warren out of his hat and comes out of the general election with a mandate, then can he not then use a combination of parliament and the royal prerogative to break the establishment? I understand why a sane person would not do this - it would burn the whole British government and empire to the ground, but at this point Edward and DLG don’t seem to care so long as they get to rule over the ashes. At that point, the Church is isolated, and could be left to fume as Edward and Wallis tie the knot at the registrar’s office in Jarrow.
 
I confess that I am not entirely understanding this - yes the combined trifecta of Church, Parliament, and Civil Service/Establishment are too great to be overcome, but if DLG somehow pulls a whole rabbit warren out of his hat and comes out of the general election with a mandate, then can he not then use a combination of parliament and the royal prerogative to break the establishment? I understand why a sane person would not do this - it would burn the whole British government and empire to the ground, but at this point Edward and DLG don’t seem to care so long as they get to rule over the ashes. At that point, the Church is isolated, and could be left to fume as Edward and Wallis tie the knot at the registrar’s office in Jarrow.
He can, if he has a majority in parliament, make pretty much anything legal. Enforcement would be the problem then. And of course, the dominions can do what they will in regards to this matter, which in game translates to fucking off entirely from this mess and going independant.

The Church openly refusing the marriage and coronation will be extremely bad for everyone, across the empire.

And, before the marriage can gin through, wallis needs that divorce. Which is going through the courts. Which are independant from everyone else and extremely good at fending off pressure from outside forces.

Let us be clear. DLG is not going to win a healthy majority, get around the Church of England and the Kirk of Scotland and the entire Civil Service, get the divorce through in a timely fashion and then have the marriage declared in a random office. Such a ridiculous farce would, at some or various points in the chain, cause his majority MPs to start rebelling and defecting back to Chamberlain or forming a new party (since they somehow have so many members and seats).

It is still possible for Wallis to get divorce and married to the king. But that's it. The Churches will not recognise it, and will hold (in Scotland's case) the king in violation of his oaths of office to defend and promote the Church of Scotland. The judiciary, after some contemplation, may well respond with 'this drive is legal in the U.K., but we are unsure as to whether we can force the Church to recognise it. Therefore, an act of parliament is necessary to define the law.'

Then DLG really needs to double down and pass another law saying that it is legal and then church must recognise it. They refuse. Etc etc. This does not end well. Before this point, his government will collapse and the king pushed out, if he even wins an election an all which...hmm.
 
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we need a new Viceroy, though.
If they’d been true to recent form they would have consulted the odious Ribbentrop! :eek:
Churchill glowered
He’s doing a lot of that.
Churchill was angry, and tossed his tumbler into the fire. “Waste of good whisky,”
Oh dear, he really must be angry! He should have knocked it back in a single gulp and then tossed it into the fireplace!
Breathe, grab a glass, some nice young aide will be round with snacks shortly.
But don’t give the glass to Winston
 
The Churches will not recognise it, and will hold (in Scotland's case) the king in violation of his oaths of office to defend and promote the Church of Scotland. The judiciary, after some contemplation, may well respond with 'this drive is legal in the U.K., but we are unsure as to whether we can force the Church to recognise it. Therefore, an act of parliament is necessary to define the law.'

Then DLG really needs to double down and pass another law saying that it is legal and then church must recognise it. They refuse. Etc etc. This does not end well.
Fair point… does this mean that Scotland can legally secede from Great Britain then according to the terms of the 1701 Act of Union?
 
Fair point… does this mean that Scotland can legally secede from Great Britain then according to the terms of the 1701 Act of Union?
No. The oath about defending the Scottish Church is older than the act of union. It was more a measure to ensure that the Scottish Church would not and could not be subsumed by the (much, much more Catholic based) Anglican Church of England.

I don't think anyone foresaw a king screwing over both at the same time, and all the other ones as well.

As for Scottish secession, there is no Scottish Parliament, political movement or real desire to leave the UK, so no one is going to suggest it outside of drinking hours. And of course, whilst Parliament does have the power to grant Scottish independence, they're the only people who can. The Union Act sure didn't leave any wiggle room for Scotland to get out, and why would it? Even the US has been very clear that no one leaves the US once you're in.
 
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I remain surprised Churchill has stuck it out this long, I'd have thought relations between him and DLG would have reached unworkably toxic long ago, to say nothing of his doubtless colourful views on the tricks DLG is pulling.

I look forward immensely to Eddie in Jarrow, it is one thing to swan around as the Prince of Wales emoting about things, quite another when you are the King and there is a constitutional crisis going on. Plus of course there is the Wallis question, putting Eddie in front of the public could, theoretically at least, help (even if I suspect in his current mood it won't), but Wallis must be kept away from the public at all costs. So when Eddie demands she comes along on the trip there is bound to be fireworks.

I suspect the UK is going to crash and burn in 1937, probably for most of the year. Nothing useful will be done until 1938, and that's too late.
I am a tad more optimistic about things. Nev can hardly cockup foreign policy worse than OTL, so nothing can get worse there. The long lead time items are capital ships for the Navy (and they are well in hand) and aircraft design. The crucial decisions in the air all pre-date the start of the AAR, so the Spitfire and Hurricane are coming, Shadow Factories have been planned and so on. At worst the bomber specs get delayed, but to be brutal given how Bomber Command performed until say 1942 that is not exactly a bad thing, you could even make the cynical case it's a net benefit not being able to launch a bomber offensive. On land, Army re-armament started in earnest so late that even a 1938 start would be an improvement over OTL, as long as the R&D happens (and it's cheap, so it will) no real loss there.

Of course compared to the ideal then this is all still bad news, but it's not existentially bad either. Indeed depending on what Naval tricks our author has up their sleeve things could be better, I have hopes for Churchill's last gift to the nation - a better naval building programme which ends up being too far advanced to get cancelled.
 
I remain surprised Churchill has stuck it out this long, I'd have thought relations between him and DLG would have reached unworkably toxic long ago, to say nothing of his doubtless colourful views on the tricks DLG is pulling.
The end of his story is still looking a lot more like a death by bullet or bottle than any kind of triumph. That's the tragedy of the thing. So many potentials brought low and put by the petty desires of two horrible men (DLG and Edward).
 
Having spent the past week reading this AAR from the very beginning, I am fully caught up now. Another great AAR you have written, Le Jones. :D

I am thoroughly enjoying the turmoil King Edward VIII is putting England through in his hell-bent determination to marry Wallis Simpson, a woman whom almost nobody likes. The fall of the Baldwin government, the return of David Lloyd George as Prime Minister (he's like that bad movie sequel nobody asked for), the constant political plotting and maneuvering, England in the midst of a political war: King Edward and his motley band versus everybody else...all this over an American woman. I love that.

In the war between Edward and everybody else, I think the King is ultimately going to lose. As Le Jones has expertly laid out, there is too much opposition for Edward to overcome in his determination to both be the King of England and the third husband of Wallis Simpson. He can't be both and I think he will end up losing his throne one way or another. As other readers have said, the question is how much damage will Edward inflict on his country before he heads to the exit...again, all this over an American woman.

Then there's Oswald Mosley. I don't know much about him; before HOI2, I didn't know he even existed. But he has this look that makes me want to punch him in the face. I think someone who has never heard of Oswald Mosley, doesn't know a thing about him, would look at him and go "I don't know why, but I suddenly have a strong urge to punch this man in the face."
 
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Why kicking the face while having his balls to cut...
 
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Chapter 67, London, 12 November 1936

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Butler immediately felt vindicated by his dogged insistence to his superiors that letting Pollard anywhere near the headquarters was mad, practically begging for trouble. The Chief (Butler was intrigued that the Head of Service was involved in this – that suggested some attention from ‘on high’ in this approach to the SIS) had seemed disinterested (presumably the ongoing political chaos was sapping his capacity as much as it was everyone else’s) while Winterbotham, Head of Air Section, and the senior officer leading the Spanish monitoring, had seemed glibly, blithely dismissive of a risk. But Butler, kicking his heels while he waited for a response to his report on Spain (having had no response to his internal espionage), remained horrified by much in his home country. The sense of panic was everywhere, the sense held by the public of a failure by the Political class to improve the country was palpable. Mosley had been released and was holding rallies in the East End, the Communists (a convenient term used broadly by the print press for anyone of the left) were demonstrating wherever they could, and a weak Government was saying and doing very little.

They were in one of the safe houses, a tawdry, run-down affair midway between Regents Park and Hampstead Heath, a jumble of drab net curtains, streaked and fading tobacco stained wallpaper and God-awful furnishing, and all rounded off with the scratching of mice behind the floorboards.

Pollard, actually the retired Major Hugh Pollard, arrived in the dingy little house with Falstaffian flair, throwing open the door with such energy that it slammed into the young lad keeping watch.

“View Halloo! Horrid gaff you’ve got here, are you the grand fromage?” They were stood in the narrow hallway.

It took the nonplussed Butler a moment to realise that Pollard was addressing him. “Actually, you want Turley, he’s through there.” Butler, as he pointed towards the front room, spoke with a surly tone, his distrust of Pollard’s faux bonhomie palpable. ‘Turley’ was the working alias for Winterbotham for this briefing, although Butler suspected that they knew one another. As Pollard bounded towards the front room, Butler silently followed him in.

Winterbotham and Butler had arranged the room carefully and according to the agent’s handbook; three chairs, carefully triangulated, with Pollard furthest from the door and in a battered armchair that seemed to part swallow Pollard as he sank into it. Butler and Winterbotham, by contrast, sat on higher, rigid, dining room chairs.

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“Hugh,” Winterbotham said with a weary sigh, his sharp city suit utterly out of place in the squalid safe house.

“Freddie,” Pollard said warmly.

“Your latest report,” Winterbotham said in a chilly tone, “I know that you didn’t receive sufficient thanks for it,” he said this without the merest hint of gratitude, “it did get to Sinclair.”

Pollard snorted. “That little shit in Lisbon wanted the glory for…”

“…we are aware,” Winterbotham snapped, earning a look of surprise from Butler, “of the issues with Lisbon station.” Winterbotham looked, very briefly, perhaps unintentionally, to Butler, perhaps aware that Butler was still suspicious of the role of the SIS team in Lisbon in rescuing him during the abortive mutiny. “That is not your concern.”

“But Sinclair read the report?” Pollard, to Butler’s fascination, was less bombastic now, Butler sensed that he was focussed on getting something from the SIS men.

“He did,” Winterbotham confirmed, “and he has used your views to gain a French perspective.”

“Frogs? Why?”

“Because,” Winterbotham said, equably, “the establishment of a Soviet regime in the Iberian Peninsula is hardly, I think you’d agree, a happening which anyone could view with equanimity for military, political or economic reasons.” Those weren’t Winterbotham’s words, Butler immediately recognised them as Sinclair’s, but Winterbotham made a decent enough stab or repeating the Chief’s opinions without it sounding too artificial.

“You’ll look into it, then?” Pollard was alert, but trying not to seem so.

Winterbotham, with a sideways glance, deflected to Butler, who spoke for the first time in this meeting.

“Yes, Sir,” Butler said the 'Sir' despite himself, “if the Communist International is funding overt and secret activities in Spain we’ll get to the bottom of it.”

“With,” Winterbotham interjected sternly, “our colleagues in the Deuxième Bureau.”

Pollard nodded, again, trying to seem nonchalant. He really was a barely contained bundle of energy. “Was that it, then?”

Winterbotham shook his head slightly. “Franco.” It was said, not as a question, but merely as a statement.

“Franco,” Pollard said, relaxing as the matter close to his heart was raised. “What do you make of my little shopping list?”

Winterbotham shot an exasperated look at Butler before looking gravely at Pollard. He sighed, seeming to weigh up whether or not to obfuscate or be direct. “You really ask too much,” he said after an awkward pause, Butler relived that the direct approach was favoured.

“Now hang on Freddie,” Pollard began, forcefully, trying, messily, to rise out of the armchair, “this is the Ascot, the Cowes, of espionage. I’m giving you access to a coming man…”

“…at the cost of hunting horses and lavish expenses?” Winterbotham had adopted a forensic tone.

“A man has to maintain a cover, and mine would be as a hunting gentleman,” Pollard said with wounded pride.

“You are rather famous, one might say infamous, for your exploits with Franco,” Winterbotham said calmly, continuing his demolition of Pollard’s demands, “we.”

“We?” Pollard sought temporary refuge in a question.

“We,” Winterbotham said, a touch of force creeping into his voice, “do not agree that a cover story is required.”

“But, er, er,” Pollard again heaved himself forward, trying to get out the chair.

Winterbotham looked at Butler again. “Mr Butler here,” he pointed at Butler, “also has concerns about the diplomatic passport that you have requested.”

Pollard, his mouth still flabbily flapping open and shut like a newly landed trout, looked from Winterbotham to Butler. “You do?”

“I…”

“…he does,” Winterbotham interjected, seemingly determined to maintain control. “A gentleman abroad, even one for hunting, wouldn’t go on a diplomatic passport.”

“It would signal to everyone, the Abwehr, the Deuxième Bureau, that you’re on the payroll,” Butler spoke with a quiet authority, earning a nod of approval from Winterbotham.

“Typical,” Pollard said with a flourish, rallying, “I hand him the keys to Franco, and he treats me like a common jailer.” Without any invitation he made a third, successful, effort to rise from his chair, straightened his rumpled blazer, and stalked from the room; it was, Butler admitted, quite magnificent, the gloriously haughty attitude only magnified when Winterbotham’s secretary, returning from notifying the Chief that contact had been made, stopped him from getting out of the room.

“And good day to you madam!” Pollard boomed.

“Well, that went well,” Butler said softly.

“I trust that you had envisaged this?” Winterbotham, to Butler more of a civil servant than he realised, was now evidently shifting the responsibility for this debacle onto Butler. “And, therefore, that you have a plan?”

Butler looked at his superior. “If you want to get to Franco, you need someone who knows Spain. Not,” he pointed at the door where Pollard had just left, “that idiot, but someone who has an excuse to travel to Spain. And who doesn’t need a diplomatic passport.”

“I believe you have contacts?” Winterbotham ignored Butler’s sarcasm.

“Yes, one in particular. He’s high up in Vickers-Armstrong.” Winterbotham looked alarmed. “Not too high up, but the Francoists will not be offended by him.”

“One of us?” That, Butler realised sadly, was the important question; he had anticipated that or ‘is he clubbable’ being raised in the meeting.

“Well,” Butler began warily, “not really. He has risen up, I’m told he’s very capable at his day job.” This was Whitehall code that Butler’s contact wasn’t very Establishment, certainly not from the gentry or the shires, and probably not from the banking, Army or academic families who made up for their lack of money by sheer brain power.

“Political?” Winterbotham seemed to be going along with the plan.

“Scores highly here,” Butler said warmly. “Seems to occasionally mix himself up with Mosley and his boys.”

“That would work in his favour,” Winterbotham said to no one in particular. “I’ll prepare orders for him to go out. He can take two assistants, one of them will be you, the other should be someone disposable, preferably one of his subordinates, or a family member. Prepare the mission, Butler”.
“I already am,” Butler said quietly. Then, realising that Winterbotham was too tired to give an answer to a question that had been niggling for some time, warily asked it anyway. “Can I ask why we want to get to Franco? What are we going to say?”
Winterbotham, not nearly as commanding as Pollard, tried to look down at his subordinate. “The less you know, the better. Just arrange the route, will you,” the ‘will you’ was the most patronising that Butler had been addressed since joining the Secret Service from university. “And there is something else,” his eyes looked at the floor, evidently uneasy with what he was about to say.

“I sense I’m about to roll my eyes,” Butler said, trying to build bridges.

Winterbotham offered a wearied smile. “We have a problem. Did you notice a well-dressed man leaving as you arrived? Tall, well-dressed? As out of place as me in the safe house?” Butler nodded. He had noticed the smart cut of the man’s suit, the obvious worth of his watch, briefcase and spectacles, and the obvious air of arrogant irritation at lowering himself by visiting a tawdry SIS safe house. “He was from the Treasury. From Churchill himself.”

“Why…”

“We have a problem. A young man, Esmond Romilly, has vanished from France.”

Butler now rolled his eyes. “Why do we care that another young idiot from the Treasu…”

“…silence!” Winterbotham’s loss of patience was dramatic. “This is unpleasant enough without you interrupting me. This is not strictly Treasury business as he’s not from the Treasury. He is Clementine Churchill’s nephew.”

“Oh God.” Butler couldn’t resist interrupting, despite Winterbotham’s evident anger. “We’re really being tasked…”

“Yes,” Winterbotham said with a groan, “yes we are. He has been travelling through France, cycling south on, as the Chief calls it, 'a diet of coffee and absinthe'. He was last seen in the docks of Marseilles, presumably looking for either a tart or a way to get to Spain.”

“Any leads in Spain?” That was important, as Butler hoped that the lad was already there; Butler’s priority up until now had been the Nationalists in Spain and a diversion to Marseilles was unfeasible.

Winterbotham looked ready to snap again but realised that Butler was acting professionally and nodded, sadly. “We’ve heard rumours. Some of your old contacts in the Republicans have reported someone matching his description turning up in Catalonia. There is a small band of British types there, one of them is on the Paris Embassy’s payroll.”

Butler thought back to his own network in Spain from his days in the Embassy. It had been a small but promising group of contacts and Butler had been quietly hopeful that, in time, they would report on foreign influences in Spain, identify the promising leaders rising through both factions, and in time provide a conduit for whatever influence Britain wished to exert. They were good people, and Butler had, in this British exile, thought of them often. He feared that the network had collapsed or rotted away through inactivity. “We don’t usually do this sort of thing.”

“The Government,” Winterbotham said tiredly, “is terrified of anything that will make it look weaker than it already is. They have utterly washed their hands of Spain, and it is not convenient to have someone connected with our illustrious Chancellor jumping into the conflict.” He assumed a more commanding tone. “That is your second, but most important task in this operation. Try and get a message to Franco, but in all circumstances bring young Mr Romilly home.”

====
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Reg McKay yawned and rolled over on the camp bed; hating, again, the light, airy, suburban setting and hating himself for rolling over. He wanted to vomit, badly, but he had been sick at least five times through the night and all he would do was heave and wretch uselessly. He realised with a mix of feelings, from accomplishing another of life’s milestones to a very real sense of shame, that he was suffering his first hangover.

The house belonged to a Mr Garrowby, a rather earnest little accountant who had agreed to look after Reg for Uncle Vernon, who had rescued him from a battering at the ‘Battle of Hyde Park’. Reg was thankful for the rescue and that miraculously Uncle Vern had been in London anyway. But it had turned rather queer; he had been curiously keen to keep Reg away from ‘the digs’ in London and had fobbed him off on the accountant, apparently temporarily. Except that temporarily had been a week, and counting. Uncle Vern had occasionally stopped by to check on him, that courtesy extending to taking Reg to a swanky party somewhere in Central London full of ‘la di dah’ types. They had mocked his accent, loved his account of the March and his subsequent adventures, and plied him with more and more wine (not, he noticed, the beer that the miners of Whitburn drank). He had even learned a really weird dance with some posh girl (she had stunning legs, though). That he liked female company and it seemed to like him (only to talk to, so far) was another milestone.

And now this, another day in this peculiar box of a house. It looked like an ice cream parlour, all white and coloured stripes, or perhaps a petrol station. But Abbotshall Avenue was a new development, the accountant, who had been among the first to buy into the street, called it ‘the future’; the residents were all middle-class professional types, and included the architect, a Mr Woodward, and most of his family. They were pleased (and to Reg’s mind obsessively) that their little street had featured in a magazine called ‘Design for To Day’ last August and viewed their light shiny homes as a beacon of the future among the dowdy semi-detached homes of North London. He sat up, slowly this time, and was rewarded an ache in the left side of his head. He vaguely remembered ending the evening drinking something called a ‘hanky panky’; the thought of its sharp contents made his stomach lurch. He staggered to the bathroom.

It was in the bathroom, kneeling as his stomach, long devoid of content, heaved helplessly, that Uncle Vernon and the accountant found him.

“Ah, that takes me back,” Uncle Vernon said in a cheery tone, “prostrate before the porcelain god.”

“Er, hello,” Reg managed between heaves.

“Get up,” Uncle Vernon said, a harsh tone creeping into his voice. “You drink with the grown-ups? Fine, but you take the pain the next day”. In a characteristically loud suit, well-oiled hair and fresh face Uncle Vernon, who had more than outdrank Reg, looked no different from usual, much to Reg’s irritation.

“Er, alright, why the hurry?” Reg sounded hurt.

Butler walked in just as Reg stood up too quickly, triggered another bout of retching, and took a moment to compose himself. “I’d normally say I hope you’re all well, but on this occasion that feels fairly ill judged,” he said wryly. “Who,” he said, pointing to the sickly Reg, “is this?”

“Oh, that’s Reg, my sister’s son,” Uncle Vernon said with a touch of pride.

“Age?” Butler was very much in charge.

“He is seventeen,” Uncle Vernon, to Reg’s fascination, said without his customary swagger.

“Education?”

“He completed school,” Uncle Vernon said, continuing as if Reg wasn’t there.

"I see. Employment?”

“He acquitted himself well in a regional newspaper, kept trying to leave to try and join the Army, at which he was frustrated by my Brother-in-Law, so joined the Jarrow Marchers as a correspondent cum mascot, then narrowly avoided a kicking by Tom’s boys, and for the past week or so has been my fixer here in London.”

Butler raised an eyebrow. “Dependable?”

“I’ll vouch for him, yes,” Uncle Vernon said simply.

Butler didn’t reply but looked at the accountant. “He would make a credible resource,” he said, with more flair than Reg had seen in his week at Abbotshall Avenue. “He’s not very good on the juice, though, Cyril.”

Reg’s surprised face made the accountant chuckle. “Don’t ask, boy, but I am not the ‘stuffed shirt’ that you think I am”.

Reg now looked at Uncle Vernon, who laughed even more heartily than the accountant. “I’ve got some talking to do, Reg, I can see that. Is he with us?”

Butler looked shrewdly at Reg. “He travels in your charge, Vernon, but yes I think that his resourcefulness and lack of ties makes him useable. Is he packed?” This was to the not accountant-seeming accountant.

“He travels light so can be in all of five minutes.”

Butler nodded. “Thank you, let’s be at it then. Travel by road to where?”

Uncle Vernon pulled out a notebook. “To be honest it’s slim pickings. Our best bet is a Bibby Line liner from Liverpool to Gibraltar, the Oxfordshire sails in two days’ time”.

Butler nodded. “Yes, I’ll get the travel girls to book us all passage. Second Class, I think.” Uncle Vernon frowned. “Sorry, but just in case we get a senior colonial or military type. Better than the P and O?”

Uncle Vernon nodded. “I would have said flying…”

Butler shook his head. “Too ostentatious. You’re a representative of Armstrong-Whitworth, not a film star”.

Uncle Vernon looked wounded. “They flew me to Hamburg”, he said in a hurt tone.

Butler pushed on. “But better than the P and O?”

“Yes,” Uncle Vernon said slowly. “Less Government types”.

“Right. You and the boy go and do what you need to, I’ll meet you in Liverpool tomorrow evening.”

====
GAME NOTES

Apologies, dear readers, for the delay. We are rapidly (well, steadily) approaching a major PoD for this TL, namely one of three of four possible political outcomes after the near certainty of a General Election and these are, broadly, Chamberlain wins and can prevail despite his naughtiness, Chamberlain stumbles/does a Teresa May leading to another Tory taking over (with another PoD for either Chamberlain loyalists or one of the outliers), some form of National Government emerging, or further Royal-inspired chaos. I have, as @El Pip will testify, agonised over this PoD as it is so fundamental to what comes next. But having looked again at the landscape of 1936 I have alighted upon a course of action that I think is plausible (actually, the most plausible). But that has taken some time, as well as the necessary recalibration. Ultimately, with the expansion pack, I opted to replay the game (making the same decisions through 1936 that I already had) and am up to late 1938. I can now steer a path for us to what will be a form of WW2.

Back to this chapter and I’ve tried, as I occasionally do, to tie together some loose ends, as well as introducing some OTL events. And, as ever, truth is stranger than anything I could concoct. The idea of Clemmie Churchill’s nephew going to Spain may seem a stretch, but not as much as a mad Englishman offering himself as an interlocutor to Franco. Both, remarkably, happened.

To the Churchill connection, first, and here I get unsympathetic with yet another stupid Englishman getting involved where he is not needed, something of a Thirties habit for the British. From a privileged background, the early 30s saw Esmond Romilly as a communist, and then a writer, and now latterly an anti-fascist heading (as he did OTL) to Spain to fight against Franco. That he stopped off in Marseille is true, it was a common staging post for Northern Europeans heading to the conflict, and it would appear that SIS’ contacts in the city were good at this time. Of course historically the British Secret Service was not tasked with retrieving him; here, with a connection to the Chancellor of the Exchequer in a far from stable government, I suggest that that SIS might be tasked to get him home. In OTL the silly idiot was invalided home in early 1937, only to vanish during WW2. Just to ram home the point that the Romilly brothers were overindulged fools, his older brother Giles was captured in Norway in 1940, a bit of a distraction for his uncle who by then was First Lord of the Admiralty.

And then we have another colourful character. Hugh Pollard was another English eccentric, something of an Elizabethan throwback, a catholic, a right-winger, and, as hinted, a huntsman and sportsman. He, of course, piloted Franco’s plane when he flew to Morocco in July 1936 and in a slight distortion of history I have hinted that it was Pollard who approached SIS in 1936, when it was actually someone (it appears suitably murky whether it was the Head of SIS, Admiral Sir Hugh Sinclair, or Winterbotham) from SIS who approached him. SIS, it appears, thought that this was an opportunity to understand Franco’s thinking but then blanched when Pollard named his demands; the scene with Winterbotham and the forensic dismantling of Pollard’s justification is fiction but I can imagine the raised eyebrows that the gloriously exorbitant bill would have prompted.

Winterbotham was real, of course, and is a character as colourful, in his own way, as Pollard. At varying times a lawyer (good man!), an Army (then RAF) Officer, a farmer, and a spymaster he was vital in Britain’s aviation intelligence in the build-up to WW2. Spain was an area of focus for him, hence he led the overtures to Pollard. During the war, of course, he was heavily involved in disseminating ultra decrypts. Getting a handle on his character proved so difficult that I almost ditched the chapter; in the end I made him focussed, professional.

Both events happened in relative proximity so I have bundled them up as a problem for our man (not quite) in Spain, Butler, to handle, dragging in Uncle Vernon and the ‘expendable’ Reg McKay. I envy them, because in this TL it will be a difficult winter for the British.

The Hanky-Panky is a cocktail made from gin, sweet vermouth, and Fernet-Branca. It was created by the head bartender at the Savoy Hotel and have gambled that it was still popular in the mid 30s. Another realism point, the shipping information is also accurate.

A final word on the architecture, seeing as I have given Victorian slums and Interwar suburbia a background role in this chapter. The shabby nature of much of inner city housing was a factor well before Attlee and his 1945 government made an issue of it (the problems were already well known by 1936, never mind 1945) but official measures were sporadic at best (there were benefits, of course, from the plethora of statutes cleaning up other things, such as air and water). ‘The market’, of course, was active, with the range of suburban North London estates such as the (real) Abbotshall Avenue which did indeed feature in lifestyle magazines. In the other AAR I talked about the ‘third Britain’ creeping up in the 30s, between the dingy industrial cities and the bucolic English countryside. Abbotshall Avenue is an example of that suburban Britain.

HOI4 is weird about the british empire. With France, they made the fairly correct decision of having pretty much all of it as 'France', which is certainly how the French viewed it all, even if it wasn't quite like that in practice.

With the British though...directly controlling Egypt is presumably something to do with Suez and Mediterranean balancing...but otherwise the decisions made are so crazy. The British Raj is a Dominion (and thus one step away from independence in 1936). British Malaya and Malaysia next door on the other hand, is annexed and directly administered. And whilst the dominions can be built up by the british, industry and otherwise, you can't dump a load of produce and force/flood them with your military cast offs to make sure they are properly equipped/you get your money's worth out of the Empire.
Having looked at the Raj, the next chapter will look at the 'white' Dominions, which is almost as messy.

I understand the importance of India to Britain - also its remoteness from London, which makes it somewhat hard for politicians and public to take Indian problems seriously. But I will say that I think an Indian uprising would be Very Very Bad, and especially so since war is coming.

I see definite parallels here. Lloyd George tries his tricks and stratagems, hoping to hang on to power despite what his head tells him is coming. And Britain hangs on to power in India, unable to either crack down and rule it or to peaceably let it go. There is a lot of denial going on, and I am not talking about a river in Egypt.

So expecting Lloyd George to do anything constructive about India ia a pipe-dream. I confess I don't see how he plans to turn the Indian situation to his advantage in domestic politics, and frankly I'm glad I'm not in his position.

Send the King to Jarrow? Mayhap he will get himself shot. Still, getting the public to support the King is the only way Edward or Lloyd George survive.

India will be a mess for whomever takes over from DLG - I have alighted on what I think would happen, and it will shape the Empire and its response to WW2 dramatically.

Jarrow is a couple of chapters away.

All I can see of this is a gigantic poltical scandal that will hurt the whole establishment right when it needs stability the most (in the run up to confronting Hitler), and the Tories in particular. Electoral success has tied them to this specific king. And he's going out, no matter what at this point.

So yes, and the nature of that is what shapes the successor to DLG. A great deal of damage has been done, domestically, to the UK.

Would the next government keep him there, or barring his resignation could they replace him? Perhaps if he wasn't doing too well then Chamberlain would leave him to twist in the wind?

This is conjecture, because I'm leaning towards Churchill admitting defeat and resigning with what's left of his grace and honour before this is all over. What happens after that depends...he could well let his depression take him and commit suicide. He could be stuck in the wilderness forever. He could be booted to somewhere in the Empire where his gob could be of some use (Canada, the US?). Or sent to India with the slimmest hope of being rehabilitated if he does well, or at least doesn't mess things up further.

What is clear is that the hawks have been stuffed by this whole affair. No one left of relevance of that wing, and yet the doves are not going to be as well secured as they were OTL. Chamberlain, presuming he gets in, will not have the smooth run up to war (where he did start rearming, did start preparing, etc etc, whilst trying to stave off the war for as long as possible)...I suspect the UK is going to crash and burn in 1937, probably for most of the year. Nothing useful will be done until 1938, and that's too late.

I think that's fair as far as the political bit goes - the best possible outcome (the big beasts of the anti-appeasers live to fight again) just isn't the most likely one as Amery, Churchill, Bracken etc are going down in flames with the King.

I confess that I am not entirely understanding this - yes the combined trifecta of Church, Parliament, and Civil Service/Establishment are too great to be overcome, but if DLG somehow pulls a whole rabbit warren out of his hat and comes out of the general election with a mandate, then can he not then use a combination of parliament and the royal prerogative to break the establishment? I understand why a sane person would not do this - it would burn the whole British government and empire to the ground, but at this point Edward and DLG don’t seem to care so long as they get to rule over the ashes. At that point, the Church is isolated, and could be left to fume as Edward and Wallis tie the knot at the registrar’s office in Jarrow.

He can, if he has a majority in parliament, make pretty much anything legal. Enforcement would be the problem then. And of course, the dominions can do what they will in regards to this matter, which in game translates to fucking off entirely from this mess and going independant.

The Church openly refusing the marriage and coronation will be extremely bad for everyone, across the empire.

And, before the marriage can gin through, wallis needs that divorce. Which is going through the courts. Which are independant from everyone else and extremely good at fending off pressure from outside forces.

Let us be clear. DLG is not going to win a healthy majority, get around the Church of England and the Kirk of Scotland and the entire Civil Service, get the divorce through in a timely fashion and then have the marriage declared in a random office. Such a ridiculous farce would, at some or various points in the chain, cause his majority MPs to start rebelling and defecting back to Chamberlain or forming a new party (since they somehow have so many members and seats).

It is still possible for Wallis to get divorce and married to the king. But that's it. The Churches will not recognise it, and will hold (in Scotland's case) the king in violation of his oaths of office to defend and promote the Church of Scotland. The judiciary, after some contemplation, may well respond with 'this drive is legal in the U.K., but we are unsure as to whether we can force the Church to recognise it. Therefore, an act of parliament is necessary to define the law.'

Then DLG really needs to double down and pass another law saying that it is legal and then church must recognise it. They refuse. Etc etc. This does not end well. Before this point, his government will collapse and the king pushed out, if he even wins an election an all which...hmm.

I agree with a lot of this, which is why the DLG administration is royally screwed.

If they’d been true to recent form they would have consulted the odious Ribbentrop! :eek:

He’s doing a lot of that.

Oh dear, he really must be angry! He should have knocked it back in a single gulp and then tossed it into the fireplace!

But don’t give the glass to Winston

Fair point… does this mean that Scotland can legally secede from Great Britain then according to the terms of the 1701 Act of Union?

No. The oath about defending the Scottish Church is older than the act of union. It was more a measure to ensure that the Scottish Church would not and could not be subsumed by the (much, much more Catholic based) Anglican Church of England.

I don't think anyone foresaw a king screwing over both at the same time, and all the other ones as well.

As for Scottish secession, there is no Scottish Parliament, political movement or real desire to leave the UK, so no one is going to suggest it outside of drinking hours. And of course, whilst Parliament does have the power to grant Scottish independence, they're the only people who can. The Union Act sure didn't leave any wiggle room for Scotland to get out, and why would it? Even the US has been very clear that no one leaves the US once you're in.

Agree - Scots nationalism isn't a factor here, it isn't anywhere near the issue that it became after 1997.

I remain surprised Churchill has stuck it out this long, I'd have thought relations between him and DLG would have reached unworkably toxic long ago, to say nothing of his doubtless colourful views on the tricks DLG is pulling.

I look forward immensely to Eddie in Jarrow, it is one thing to swan around as the Prince of Wales emoting about things, quite another when you are the King and there is a constitutional crisis going on. Plus of course there is the Wallis question, putting Eddie in front of the public could, theoretically at least, help (even if I suspect in his current mood it won't), but Wallis must be kept away from the public at all costs. So when Eddie demands she comes along on the trip there is bound to be fireworks.


I am a tad more optimistic about things. Nev can hardly cockup foreign policy worse than OTL, so nothing can get worse there. The long lead time items are capital ships for the Navy (and they are well in hand) and aircraft design. The crucial decisions in the air all pre-date the start of the AAR, so the Spitfire and Hurricane are coming, Shadow Factories have been planned and so on. At worst the bomber specs get delayed, but to be brutal given how Bomber Command performed until say 1942 that is not exactly a bad thing, you could even make the cynical case it's a net benefit not being able to launch a bomber offensive. On land, Army re-armament started in earnest so late that even a 1938 start would be an improvement over OTL, as long as the R&D happens (and it's cheap, so it will) no real loss there.

Of course compared to the ideal then this is all still bad news, but it's not existentially bad either. Indeed depending on what Naval tricks our author has up their sleeve things could be better, I have hopes for Churchill's last gift to the nation - a better naval building programme which ends up being too far advanced to get cancelled.

So I do agree mon brave, materially much will be as it was OTL (the RN gets some ships, the RAF gets some planes, the Army does its best until it can expand and rearm). I think that this TL will have two effects; the British lose credibility as a stable ally, leading some (France and maybe the Dominions) to look elsewhere, and second that the different prewar experience will impact upon doctrinal thinking (less so the RN but perhaps, in light of what I'm about to unveil, the Army and RAF). This and the butterflies from the first point mean that while there will be a war, the nature of that war and how is it fought will be different.

The end of his story is still looking a lot more like a death by bullet or bottle than any kind of triumph. That's the tragedy of the thing. So many potentials brought low and put by the petty desires of two horrible men (DLG and Edward).

It will get worse before it gets better...

Having spent the past week reading this AAR from the very beginning, I am fully caught up now. Another great AAR you have written, Le Jones. :D

I am thoroughly enjoying the turmoil King Edward VIII is putting England through in his hell-bent determination to marry Wallis Simpson, a woman whom almost nobody likes. The fall of the Baldwin government, the return of David Lloyd George as Prime Minister (he's like that bad movie sequel nobody asked for), the constant political plotting and maneuvering, England in the midst of a political war: King Edward and his motley band versus everybody else...all this over an American woman. I love that.

In the war between Edward and everybody else, I think the King is ultimately going to lose. As Le Jones has expertly laid out, there is too much opposition for Edward to overcome in his determination to both be the King of England and the third husband of Wallis Simpson. He can't be both and I think he will end up losing his throne one way or another. As other readers have said, the question is how much damage will Edward inflict on his country before he heads to the exit...again, all this over an American woman.

Then there's Oswald Mosley. I don't know much about him; before HOI2, I didn't know he even existed. But he has this look that makes me want to punch him in the face. I think someone who has never heard of Oswald Mosley, doesn't know a thing about him, would look at him and go "I don't know why, but I suddenly have a strong urge to punch this man in the face."

My dear chap! Welcome! I do need to canvass your opinion on a US element, actually...

Why kicking the face while having his balls to cut...

Oh Dear...
 
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I agree with a lot of this, which is why the DLG administration is royally scrscrewed
I got to that point in my conjecture and realised that the judge/s ruling on whether or not they can rule on church law etc in this matter is a fascinating question, and I'd genuinely like a long hard think and debate over this. I suspect the question would be just as interesting if it came up today, albeit with very different judges and reasonings by all sides.

It is a magnificent cocktail of politics, ethics, law of various kinds, overreach, undereach and 'the public good'.

Or, if that would for various reasons be unsatisfactory as a topic, have a Scottish Presbyterian judge be on the deciding bar and have him lose his shit at the Royal team.

I concur on the four choices and the agony of choosing between them. By the way, what were your thoughts of the changes to HOI4 and the new dlc since you bothered to replay with these in mind?
 
It scarcely seems possible for DLG's government to survive, but... how is Chamberlain going to cope when the public realizes he just threw a divinely-appointed king, heir of a beloved dynasty, off his throne? Especially if DLG can paint it as a purely political act done for personal gain.

My issue isn't that DLG is getting out the knives but that he isn't using them. If Chamberlain can try to bring down King and government, DLG should be able to mobilize public sentiment and make his life a Hell.


I would be intereted in your thoughts as well. I purchased all the HoIs through 3, but when it was apparetn that they were going to strip oil out of 4 and add it as a paid-for DLC later, I bailed.
 
how is Chamberlain going to cope when the public realizes he just threw a divinely-appointed king, heir of a beloved dynasty, off his throne?
Pfft. Divinely appointed will be dealt with by every church and Church, and very loudly indeed. No worry for Chamberlain there.
Heir of a beloved dynasty is laying it on a bit. A disappointment to his beloved father and a worse choice than his incredibly likeable brother is very easily retorted.
And it's not his throne, and there is no way the people of the 30s would rally round such language. Parliament may rule at His Majesty's Pleasure but His Majesty is appointed by Parliament and everyone on all sides (aside from some Jacobites keeping the lights on) agrees this is for the best.

No, no. No one is riding to Edward's rescue, especially the people.

Especially if DLG can paint it as a purely political act done for personal gain.
There is no way he is evee going to convince anyone else that Chamberlain did what he did for personal gain and yet his actions were not done purely to become PM again.
My issue isn't that DLG is getting out the knives but that he isn't using them. If Chamberlain can try to bring down King and government, DLG should be able to mobilize public sentiment and make his life a Hell.
Again, I think it might be possible for someone to perhaps make things painful/destabilise a Chamberlain government but it cannot be DLG, not just because he's a polticial hack but has by this time so completely destroyed his reputation and credibility that even a dim-witted public should not be easily swayed into backing him again.

I would be intereted in your thoughts as well. I purchased all the HoIs through 3, but when it was apparetn that they were going to strip oil out of 4 and add it as a paid-for DLC later, I bailed.
When they added it back in, it was a nasty surprise for me, it being my first HOI game. Made things much more interesting, and made creating and maintaining a large mobilised army an actual challenge.
 
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the Communists (a convenient term used broadly by the print press for anyone of the left) were demonstrating wherever they could
In fairness keeping up with all the faction names would be a full time job.
Pollard, actually the retired Major Hugh Pollard, arrived in the dingy little house with Falstaffian flair, throwing open the door with such energy that it slammed into the young lad keeping watch.

“View Halloo! Horrid gaff you’ve got here, are you the grand fromage?” They were stood in the narrow hallway.
I do really like Pollard, an adventurer of the old school. That said Winterbotham is correct to brush him off, he is always out for himself first and is not really intelligence agent material (though as an intelligence source he was generally good value).
“The Government,” Winterbotham said tiredly, “is terrified of anything that will make it look weaker than it already is. They have utterly washed their hands of Spain, and it is not convenient to have someone connected with our illustrious Chancellor jumping into the conflict.” He assumed a more commanding tone. “That is your second, but most important task in this operation. Try and get a message to Franco, but in all circumstances bring young Mr Romilly home.”
Realistic priorities there, it's not like the government (or any plausible future government) is going to actually do anything about Spain so making contact with Franco is the lower political priority. Arguably it shouldn't be, but spies rarely operate in an ideal world.
I feel sure our resident architectural contingent are delighted at this slice of 30s art deco modernism. I wouldn't quite call it typical of the emerging 'Third Britain' though, I do see where you are coming from with the general thrust of your argument but I think the more standard brick boxes of Metroland are the better example of the new suburbia. But then they are a lot less interesting to look at so I can fully understand why you went with this example.

In any event I do look forward to the adventures of Butler, Uncle Vernon and the expendable one, should be fun.

This and the butterflies from the first point mean that while there will be a war, the nature of that war and how is it fought will be different.
That is a relief. It would have been a very bold and incredibly courageous choice to go to all this effort, but then have WW2 roll out as per usual. ;)
 
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Chapter 68, Downing Street, 17 November 1936

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The ever-dwindling Downing Street staff was astonished when, only two minutes before what by any assessment was a momentous occasion, the Prime Minister finally arrived. His whereabouts until then had been a matter of speculation.

“Which one are you?”

“Cairncross, Prime Minister,” the aide said lugubriously.

Lloyd George grunted acknowledgement, “have someone fetch a tea,” he said after an awkward pause.

“Prime Minister, the Foreign and Dominions offices have…”

“…right,” Lloyd George snatched the papers from Cairncross. “Who is here?”

Cairncross frowned slightly. “Mr Headlam and Mr Monckton. They’re both keen to see you, both of them,” he added unnecessarily. “I think that they would appreciate your counsel.”

“Churchill?”

“No, something about battleships.”

Lloyd George grunted as he handed his hat and coat to Cairncross, who visibly hated being treated as a valet. Stalking through the rabbit warren of dark, dingy corridors, he realised that everywhere he walked in Whitehall was the same; the sense of bereavement, everyone scuttling around and speaking in hushed tones. It felt like a palace in mourning, waiting for a change of regime. Lloyd George noticed that, despite the unseasonably early darkness (a symptom of the stormy weather, he mused), few lights had been lit, adding to the sombre, almost medieval atmosphere. Walter Monckton, waiting in Lloyd George’s office, didn’t help; that office, darkly covered in legal and constitutional tomes, felt almost Dickensian. Behind Lloyd George the newly enobled Cuthbert Headlam, a former MP and the Dominions Secretary in this makeshift administration, entered and stood silently in a corner, as if wanting to be out of sight.

“He’s in a state of denial,” Monckton said in a breathy voice, the air of defeat obvious. “My advice went down badly and he has all but shut up shop to me.” The lawyer took off his spectacles and spoke with his resting eyes closed. “He’s going ahead with the ‘meet the people’ stuff, of course, and he is likely to push you on India. She’s not a Dominion, you know.”

“I am fully aware of that,” Lloyd George said tersely.

Headlam nodded. “Lothian has recalled Brabourne for consultation.”

Monckton sighed and sat silently without being invited. Finally, he nodded. “That is about as good as we can do, in the circumstances,” he said heavily. “Might I ask, Prime Minister, how awful you think that things will get?”

“The Beaver and his wizards will craft their magic for us,” he said, trying to rouse both Monckton and Headlam, “but The Times is going all in to get him,” there was no explanation, but ‘him’ presumably meant the King.

Somewhere in the building a clock chimed the hour. “They’ll be here now,” Monckton said softly, but with purpose. They filed out silently.

They met in the Cabinet Room, the sombre effect marred by the half empty teacups and ashtrays filled with cigarette butts. “Are they here?” The aggrieved tone and petulant glare left the politicians in no doubt of the Prime Minister’s mood.

“Yes, they’re here,” Headlam said dourly. Without any ministerial experience he had been appointed in a manner typical of this makeshift administration; he had been intended as a stopgap pending, it had been hoped, more proficient politicians flocking to Lloyd George’s banner. They waited silently, their wordless vigil maddening for Lloyd George.

Finally, Cairncross stuck his head in, and nodded. “Prime Minister, the High Commissioners of Canada, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand,” he droned as four drab figures, dripping wet and looking rather shapeless in their bloated, sodden overcoats, advanced in confusion towards the Cabinet table. Realising that there was little protocol for this they seemed, as if one mass, to judder to a halt and stood, stock still, puddles of water forming at their feet. Whether it came from his (relative) dryness, or character, or the fact that William Jordan of New Zealand had only been in post a month, South Africa had sent a junior diplomat (not, as Cairncross had mistakenly announced, a High Commissioner) and Massey of Canada had a raging cold, the task of saying something fell to Stanley Bruce of Australia.

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“Prime Minister,” he said, belatedly removing his hat and overcoat. “I have, on behalf our Prime Ministers, a joint declaration by His Majesty’s dominions. Will this petition be heard?”

Monckton, already sitting slightly distant from Lloyd George and Headlam, leaned back in his chair, distancing himself further. Headlam looked ill, so Lloyd George huffed and offered the slightest of nods.

Bruce, seemingly as nervous (or perhaps tense) as Lloyd George was furious flashed a smile of thanks. He turned to face Monckton, Lloyd George noting that the King’s emissary was seemingly important to the Dominion representatives (Monckton and Lloyd George had refused to grant an audience with the King until they had heard whatever the representatives had to say). No one invited or requested the Dominion Commissioners to sit. They stood, awkwardly. Finally Monckton, utterly bemused at the awkward scene, threw his hands up in despair.

“Prime Minister, I’m not precisely unburdened today so perhaps Mr Bruce and the others could sit and we could proceed with the meeting?” Lloyd George waved dismissively at some chairs, the Commissioners sat. “You’re very kind,” Monckton said, not entirely sarcastically.

“Sir, be it recorded, today, the seventeenth day of October, in the year of Our Lord nineteen hundred and thirty six…”

“…perhaps,” Monckton said, a veneer of pleasantness layered over increasing exasperation, “we can read all that later. Stanley, talk to us, I implore you.” Lloyd George said nothing, looking beyond angry.

“Alright Walter, I will. This is a formal protest by the Dominions at His Majesty’s lack of consultation with those Dominions.”

“I’d argue, Stanley, that consultation has happened,” Monckton said gently.

“Fair, Walter, but we have been ignored.”

Monckton looked at his shoes. “Go on,” Lloyd George said warily.

“The Statute of Westminster makes it clear that the King is the bond that joins the Dominions with Britain and one another.” Bruce paused, but seeing Monckton’s evident embarrassment and Lloyd George’s simmering anger pressed on. “It also sets out that our parliaments can legislate inconsistently with British legislation and that in the main Britain can legislate with effect on the Dominions as a whole only with our request and consent.”

“Yes,” Headlam said, breaking Bruce’s monologue.

“Independence,” Bruce persisted.

“To a point,” Lloyd George said testily. “Westminster can still…”

“…yes, Prime Minister,” Jordan of New Zealand now spoke. “The key point is that the preamble sets out that any matter changing the line of succession or the Royal titles requires…”

“…all of our equal consent,” Massey said sniffily, before loudly blowing his nose.

“So now what?” Lloyd George snapped at this, he no longer attempted to mask his anger.

“We reserve the right to legislate, as required, to make constitutional changes as we see fit. And we will not, necessarily, follow the British Government in its actions and its dealings with the Crown.”

There was an awkward silence, before Monckton, sadly, looked up from his shoes. “Thank you, Stanley, you’ve made…”

“…you’ve had your say,” Lloyd George snapped. “Anything else?”

“Prime Minister,” Monckton began.

“No, Walter, no. He’s made his point, this meeting is over.”

“Prime Minister,” Bruce began, “all I was going to say is to ask what the bloody hell are you doing? You’re burning goodwill across the Commonwealth, and you’ve given us no option but to look to ourselves.”

“What does that mean?” Lloyd George hadn’t wanted to ask but couldn’t resist.

“We may,” Jordan of Canada began, as Lloyd George half suspected he would, answered, “need to forge closer ties with our neighbours.”

Headlam frowned. “Does that mean…”

He means America,” Lloyd George said, pointing at the Canadian. “Fine.” He turned to Bruce. “Who are you going to cosey up to? Japan?” He barked a scornful chuckle. Realising that, having made their protest, the four representatives were no longer welcome, Bruce led them out.

“Dominions Secretary,” Monckton said formally to Headlam, who was as stunned as the rest of them. “What is the impact of this, this gesture” he waved a hand helplessly.

Headlam had wondered how to pitch this moment. He cleared his throat, and spoke flatly, the lack of forced drama somehow making his speech more effective.

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“Frankly, they’re out in the cold.” Monckton looked aghast at Headlam’s confidence. “I wonder if the Governors General should be recalled for consultation.”

“Through whom?” That was Lloyd George, fulminating at his seat.

“Me, David.”

“To what end?” Monckton was baffled.

“Well, the point is that the Dominions cannot withdraw from the Commonwealth. We regard them as Dominions, not foreign powers.” Headlam, finding his voice, continued. “We punish them.” At this Monckton let out a groan. “We withdraw them from participation in the British Empire Games. No technical or military assistance will be provided to their governments, with the exception of assistance aimed at facilitating the restoration of the Commonwealth. All emblematic representation of them at Imperial and Commonwealth events will remain, and they would continue to use all emblematic representation within the Dominions.”

With Lloyd quietly smouldering, Monckton nodded, seemingly to himself, and adopted a more lawyerly air. “I don’t agree.”

“With which bit?” Headlam was frowning.

“Quite a lot it, My Lord Cuthbert.” He began to tick off his objections, counting with his fingers. Firstly, no one is suggesting, from what I have heard and have read,” he waved the signed protest, that had been thus far forgotten, “a formal rupture with the Commonwealth. At least not yet. This document essentially puts us on notice that they believe that they can make their own legislative provisions. Not that they will.”

“The threat is there,” Headlam snapped petulantly.

“And that is rather the point,” Monckton said calmly. “This is a warning, nothing more.”

“Second?” That was Lloyd George, in a very flat voice.

Monckton offered a lawyer’s smile, quick and thin. “His Majesty has allowed me a degree of autonomy on this matter, but I doubt that he would support us ‘punishing’ the Dominions for what is really a clarification of their position.”

Lloyd George looked up at the ceiling. “But it has real power, Walter, politically.”

Headlam looked from Lloyd George to Monckton. “Neville?”

“He is not omnipresent, the leviathan,” Monckton said, briefly losing his cool. “The Dominions are angry enough without Neville’s involvement. But, he may seek to exploit it.”

“Aye,” Lloyd George said sadly, “so what do we do? I know your plan, Cuthbert. What about you, Walter?”

“Do nothing. If you must, a statement from you or Cuthbert, along the ‘we deeply regret’ vein. But continue to behave like they are Dominions in our Commonwealth. Which, gentlemen, they are.”

====
GAME NOTES

So this is really a continuation of the event with the Viceroy of India a couple of chapters ago, namely “the Dominions break with the Crown” nonsense. I’ve articulated my concern / mad fury at HOI4’s event chain for the non-abdication, and having dealt with India a couple of chapters ago we now have the ‘white’ Dominions. Sighs. Would they break with the Crown? I cannot agree with HOI4 here; I think that if their objection to the Simpson marriage had been overlooked, and if a minority UK Government continued to resist their real concerns over the tawdry affair, then they wouldn’t just arbitrarily rip themselves away, en masse, from the UK and prepare domestic legislation to sever the role of the British monarch (or the ‘patriation’ of powers). I’ve suggested something of a Le Jones fudge, portraying the unified action as a ratcheting up of the pressure rather than some form of legal rupture with the Crown. The intriguing bit of this, and one that is deliciously the most destructive bit both of the game event and my fudge of it, is that this is far more effective by being a united representation rather than a trickle of independent protestations. If (and I think that this is up for debate) a Dominion (probably New Zealand given her earlier readiness to explore the morganatic marriage idea) had being less decisive in taking action, then the British could, and probably would, have played ‘divide and conquer’ in an attempt to slowly win them around (or, probably more likely, get them to postpone their dramatic action in favour of ‘wait and see’). I am not saying that this would be in any way successful, but it would have given an opening, a chink through which to attempt to steer the Dominions back to the fold.

I picked Bruce as the emissary as I felt that it was so obviously going to be Massey for everyone’s guess as to who would be ‘top dog’ of the Dominions that I wanted to ‘mix it up’ a bit. I guess that, as a matter of etiquette, the longest serving would do the talking but as I had already shown, in the Vimy update, Canada’s unhappiness with the King I decided that I should plump for my personal preference, in this case Bruce. He is an interesting character, and although he is little more than a walk on part in this update he is of course a major figure in Australian history, as a Prime Minister of Australia in the 20s and later an influential High Commissioner (an ambassador in all but name, certainly the same status, for those of you not familiar with Commonwealth nomenclature). He seems to have personally taken the OTL crisis badly, and was keenly supportive of Baldwin (they were PMs of their respective Commonwealth nations at the same time in the 20s) in his efforts to push the King to dropping either Simpson or the job.

Headlam, in an AAR full of characters from the North East (Eden, Percy, the McKays, Belsay etc) is yet another, although in his case as a character in the North East (as a former MP for Barnard Castle) rather than a pure-blood I think I get away with it. There is some suggestion that he was fairly supportive towards the King marrying Simpson and based on this have posited that DLG would make him a member of the House of Lords (he having lost his seat in the 1935 General Election) to help out the King’s cause there. He was fairly unremarkable in an age full of unremarkable parliamentarians, so it is doubtful that we will see him again.

I got to that point in my conjecture and realised that the judge/s ruling on whether or not they can rule on church law etc in this matter is a fascinating question, and I'd genuinely like a long hard think and debate over this. I suspect the question would be just as interesting if it came up today, albeit with very different judges and reasonings by all sides.

It is a magnificent cocktail of politics, ethics, law of various kinds, overreach, undereach and 'the public good'.

Or, if that would for various reasons be unsatisfactory as a topic, have a Scottish Presbyterian judge be on the deciding bar and have him lose his shit at the Royal team.

I concur on the four choices and the agony of choosing between them. By the way, what were your thoughts of the changes to HOI4 and the new dlc since you bothered to replay with these in mind?

So to the first point, we're building towards the climax of the DLG-driven chaos; I may try and get some of this into the King's Speech debate (coming soon). It is truly an odd situation that we're facing in this TL, and as usual with the 'British system' there are quite a few ways out of this.

On the new HOI stuff, (operatic sigh), on balance I find the logistics stuff ok (and if that is damming with faint praise, so be it), the tank designer rather pointless (I think the previous ability to buff / nerf was sufficient) and the land command / academy / doctrine stuff reasonable if undercooked. I rarely play as the USSR (I usually play UK, US, occasionally Italy and then mad minors such as Sweden and Turkey) so I have yet to experiment with the Russia focus trees.

My big problem with HOI4 is the focus tree system. It commits nations to courses of action devoid of any interaction with other nations. That just seems stupid.

It scarcely seems possible for DLG's government to survive, but... how is Chamberlain going to cope when the public realizes he just threw a divinely-appointed king, heir of a beloved dynasty, off his throne? Especially if DLG can paint it as a purely political act done for personal gain.

My issue isn't that DLG is getting out the knives but that he isn't using them. If Chamberlain can try to bring down King and government, DLG should be able to mobilize public sentiment and make his life a Hell.


I would be intereted in your thoughts as well. I purchased all the HoIs through 3, but when it was apparetn that they were going to strip oil out of 4 and add it as a paid-for DLC later, I bailed.

Pfft. Divinely appointed will be dealt with by every church and Church, and very loudly indeed. No worry for Chamberlain there.
Heir of a beloved dynasty is laying it on a bit. A disappointment to his beloved father and a worse choice than his incredibly likeable brother is very easily retorted.
And it's not his throne, and there is no way the people of the 30s would rally round such language. Parliament may rule at His Majesty's Pleasure but His Majesty is appointed by Parliament and everyone on all sides (aside from some Jacobites keeping the lights on) agrees this is for the best.

No, no. No one is riding to Edward's rescue, especially the people.


There is no way he is evee going to convince anyone else that Chamberlain did what he did for personal gain and yet his actions were not done purely to become PM again.

Again, I think it might be possible for someone to perhaps make things painful/destabilise a Chamberlain government but it cannot be DLG, not just because he's a polticial hack but has by this time so completely destroyed his reputation and credibility that even a dim-witted public should not be easily swayed into backing him again.


When they added it back in, it was a nasty surprise for me, it being my first HOI game. Made things much more interesting, and made creating and maintaining a large mobilised army an actual challenge.

I'm keeping Neville at a distance atm because I want to cover everything else (Labour, the Cabinet members little explored, the King) before we hit the collapse of the DLG team. Having discussed the options available in our early 1937 General Election, I do think that Chamberlain has weaknesses; he has overplayed his hand with use of Ball and the ex-MI5 chaps and methods. He also, in OTL did not win a General Election and I am not convinced, even in 1936/37, that he would be an effective communicator. I accept that Elections were far more, than 2021, about local issues and local candidates and that politics was not as centralised as it is now, but national issues matter.

In fairness keeping up with all the faction names would be a full time job.

I do really like Pollard, an adventurer of the old school. That said Winterbotham is correct to brush him off, he is always out for himself first and is not really intelligence agent material (though as an intelligence source he was generally good value).

Realistic priorities there, it's not like the government (or any plausible future government) is going to actually do anything about Spain so making contact with Franco is the lower political priority. Arguably it shouldn't be, but spies rarely operate in an ideal world.

I feel sure our resident architectural contingent are delighted at this slice of 30s art deco modernism. I wouldn't quite call it typical of the emerging 'Third Britain' though, I do see where you are coming from with the general thrust of your argument but I think the more standard brick boxes of Metroland are the better example of the new suburbia. But then they are a lot less interesting to look at so I can fully understand why you went with this example.

In any event I do look forward to the adventures of Butler, Uncle Vernon and the expendable one, should be fun.


That is a relief. It would have been a very bold and incredibly courageous choice to go to all this effort, but then have WW2 roll out as per usual. ;)


I get the point on the metroland bit, it was more that this Britain is emerging (rather than the exhibit) cited. Yes, a three bed semi would be truly representative, but I found the pic (and the brochure, which is amazing) and wanted to use it.

I do realise that I obsess over intelligence, but that it, perhaps, because this AAR is a creature of the LaR DLC more than the new stuff. But with characters like Pollard, it can make for a pleasant diversion from Chamberlain, KEVIII and DLG!
 
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The problem the british have is that if Canada goes over to the US, and India is gotten rid of (which is going to happen fairly soon and they all know that), that's bascially it for the empire. The commonwealth would become a gathering of independent nations rather than dominions. The British don't really have anything left to hold the empire or dominions together beyond inertia and economic power. The first has been stopped by this king business. The latter will inevitably fail to hold them, but the war will probably speed up the job.
 
From an American perspective, I can't quite see Canada going over to the US - there's a long history between these two nations illuminated by a fair bit of half-humorous hostility. A warming of relations, perhaps - the long undefended border helps with that.

Wasn't there some proposal during the Depression for the Maritime provinces to become US states? It came to nothing and I can't see that it would - much the same as Texas perennially muttering about secession.

Anyway... that 'threat' from the Dominions is as damp as the commissioners themselves. It amounts to, 'do the politically impossible or we'll speak badly of you,' and I can't imagine bad PR could affect the DLG government much at this point. I believe it would have been smart to butter up the representatives, wine and dine them and tell them you are doing everything you can to get the King to co-operate and that they just need to be patient... But smart diplomacy does not seem to be something DLG's men know how to do.

What could be an effective threat from the Dominions would be the with-holding of large purchases and a formal disinclination to support the mother country militarily - which would be effective if war were immediately looming, but it isn't.

So... what? The Dominions aren't going to transfer their loyalties to France or the US or anyone else. They can't legally cease to be Dominions without the consent of the mother country, whose Parliament is not in session anyway. This will, I think, increase the movement toward full independence but... really? Not much else. Even recent emigrants to the Dominions might conclude the King's marriage isn't something they can affect anyway.

Now in game terms this might be a big deal, but in terms of practical politics all it does is poison the well of future co-operation without achieving any progress for either side.
 
From an American perspective, I can't quite see Canada going over to the US - there's a long history between these two nations illuminated by a fair bit of half-humorous hostility. A warming of relations, perhaps - the long undefended border helps with that.
King is PM. He'd do (and did) everything he could to switch over to Washington anyway. This is just fuel for his fire. Probably thinks its a surefire way of not only getting his public to back his plans, but also get amercian aid, newfoundland put under Canadian control and complete independence from the British in the future.
Anyway... that 'threat' from the Dominions is as damp as the commissioners themselves. I
Now in game terms this might be a big deal,
Might be? Dear sir, in-game, this event destroys the empire. Only thing that remains are the crown colonies and rhodesia. And Egypt, for some fucking reason.

Bascially, in game, this is game over until you pick the 'correct' choice of putting the King in absolute power and being given the entire empire back, only completely under his thumb.
 
My dear sir, I can't see it matters who the PM is - Canada is never joining the USA. Complete independence from Britain and the US, perhaps, Taking in Newfoundland perhaps. Economic ties to the US - those have always been present, and it would be easy to see those improve. Defense ties - not unless there was a 'clear and present danger'. Becoming subservient to the US - I can't see it.

As I said, I'm speaking as though the narrative were real. If there truly is only one 'correct' choice then we might all just as well skip reading the rest, yes?