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The Americans had widened the perimeter around regained Los Angeles by the 18th and Tijuana had been linked in to US supply and a mix of US and partner divisions provided a strong garrison for the returned Mexican government-in-exile.

Could you remind me which faction the Mexican government-in-exile is aligned with?

In Canada, the Allies were conducting an offensive that seemed to be making a little headway, while the bulk of deployed Allied divisions continued to sit back doing nothing.

I did notice that just seven US divisions are tying up 29 Allied divisions in this secondary theatre - and nothing is really happening. :(

In the west, the enemy had broken out of Tijuana and were advancing south against light and frail resistance. Allied efforts were more formidable, north and east of there with the small lodgement in US territory still maintained.

The Americans seem to hold the intitiative for now but fortunes in Mexico tend to keep shifting!

The fighting in Asia went on much as it had the previous month. In Indochina, by 21 May the MAB had advanced to the outskirts of Saigon, where it appeared a sizeable Allied force was attempting to mount a defence. To the west, the MAB was advancing into Cambodia with little opposition, though Allied divisions, including armour, were assembling in Phnom Penh.

When I read this and looked at the forces available I assumed the Allies were more than capable of making a fight of this...

However, the Allied effort in Saigon had collapsed (it was unknown whether the divisions there had evacuated by sea or been destroyed) and it had been occupied by the 29th as a rearguard action was fought in Cambodia, where Phnom Penh still held but the MAB had advanced up to the Mekong River to its east.

... and then it turned into another Allied rout! :mad:

My guess is the forces in Saigon were shipped out. So many well-supplied divisions couldn't just have surrendered so quickly, surely?

With no Polish general offensive anticipated for the coming weeks, the main construction effort was directed to building new fixed land fortifications along critical parts of the Eastern Front, including forward positions occupied in Byelorussia and Ukraine.

Good idea. Some of these provinces are coming under serious and sustained pressure and you might as well cause the Soviets as much pain as possible!

The latest massive battle for south-west Khmelnytskyi swung decisively in the Allies favour on the morning of 21 May and finally ended just before midnight. More men from both sides perished in this battle than for any previously experienced by the Poles: 35,000 in total.

The bad news being that 15,000 of those casualties were on the Polish side. :eek:

It was also noticed that poor Allied supply in the area was being exacerbated by the lack of transport infrastructure in the occupied province. Engineers were sent in on 29 May to commence emergency railway works to south-west Khmelnytskyi.

The province has probably been trashed by the heavy fighting as well...

As the month ended, a British armoured division had reinforced the line in addition to the latest Polish relief force. This put British General Claude Auchinleck in charge of the battle and had once more swung the battle in the Allies’ favour.

In an earlier screenshot the defence was being led by von Manstein. Curious, as most of the defending divsions on both occasions were Polish. Probably the game is assigning the highest-skill general from the units involved in the battle?

The Poles had lost another 26,870 men in May, despite being largely on the defensive.

Nearly half of Poland's casualties in the month were the caused by enemy air power. Fighters and AAA should perhaps be priorities now for Polish war production?
 
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The reports are becoming more efficient, they don't even bother with brief hints of hope now and just focus on bad news.

Some of you may say, "but there was that Polish victory". The Soviets will take a 1:1.3 casualty ratio all day long and twice on May Day, those sort of exchange rates will burn through Polish manpower reserves while barely making a date in Soviet ones.
 
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Quick update: next session played and report being written up soon after comment feedback from the last chapter. But I have been taking some time to do a mod and save game edit for Talking Turkey, which will see the game portion resume in the brave new world of post-Korean War 1951.

For those who still do, might once again or may be tempted to follow it, I plan on making the format and sweep a little more like the one here in Poles Apart, but still with some familiar elements. It will be a continuation of the old story in that AAR thread, but effectively as a new part that could be taken up from that point for those who may want to leap in there without going through all the back story.
 
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Before I get into the comment feedback from last chapter, here's something I missed back then that happened in April and that I didn't notice in May either, so I'll update here before we get into the next chapter.

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Yes, the US has sent the Marines into Indonesia and are now taking in the sights of Bali, among other islands east of Java. The attacks were launched some time after 15 but before 30 April 1946.

The Allied position in Mexico is in a bad spot. Baja could be cut off so easily, and the US seems to have advantage in terms of supply.
Things remain hard for the Allies in Mexico, as they have been for a long time now, though they keep seeming to hang on. We will see more soon about how events transpire in June.
I wonder what their thinking is here. :shrugs:
"Thinking" could be a general description of the AI's decision process here! :D
Those Allied defenses look to be too late. Indochina is gone.
I'm afraid that looks definite: haven't really looked like holding after the Poles pulled out.
Defense is your best option at this point. The Soviets will lose lots of equipment and men with their attacks.
I agree - and so does the Polish High Command. It won't prevent the odd counter-attack or opportunistic sortie in places, but things are currently looking like more defence in the hope of superior Allied industry being able to halt the Communists, at least. Especially the Soviets, who for now are probably the primary enemy, despite the longer term US threat. I think it's probably 'Soviets First' in the Polish and hopefully Allied councils of war.
Iran seems to be holding well in this image. Hopefully, it continues to distract the USR.
Yes, OK (though still difficult); and yes, the more fronts the Allies can keep going, the better for Poland.
I forget, did you switch your generals to using motorized supplies instead of horses? It will help when you're far away from any hubs.
Yes, that's been done for all (or I think so anyway and will check subsequently) HQs by now: we have plenty of spare trucks for that.
More factories are definitely needed to keep up with equipment losses.

I was wondering, do you have a copy of the save? I'd like to be able to tag around and see how the Allies and MAB are doing with industry, research, etc.
We've been directing our construction efforts to more tactical improvements for a long time now, though are slowly swinging back to some factory building, as lend-lease cannot be fully relied on and this war looks like dragging on for a long time yet. I'd kinda hoped the Allies might have won or at least been on top by now, after Germany came over to our side early, France was able to survive unscathed and Italy also taken over and brought in. What a grind it's been since, though! The war with the US really was a Black Swan event!

If it possible to attach a save file in a PM, I might do that, after the next update goes up. Will it matter that the game is an old build with only a few of the DLC?
Another slugfest. Overall allies losing more ground. Thanks
Yes, fair summary. It's been slow and fortunately the Eastern Front is holding well enough, but things are tough.
Could you remind me which faction the Mexican government-in-exile is aligned with?
The United Mexican States (who came to power after a revolution overthrew the previous Allied government) joined the MAB, so are in exile with them. They separately have an NAP and mutual military access agreements with the US.
I did notice that just seven US divisions are tying up 29 Allied divisions in this secondary theatre - and nothing is really happening. :(
I've no idea why the Allies keep sending all those divisions over then leave them in port. I guess its supply/infra related, but haven't really checked and don't know how the AI calculates these things. o_O
The Americans seem to hold the intitiative for now but fortunes in Mexico tend to keep shifting!
Yes to both: Ive lost count of the number of times I (and others) have thought one side or the other was about to fail and it's turned around. o_O
When I read this and looked at the forces available I assumed the Allies were more than capable of making a fight of this...
... and then it turned into another Allied rout! :mad:

My guess is the forces in Saigon were shipped out. So many well-supplied divisions couldn't just have surrendered so quickly, surely?
Alas, yes. It's happened any number of times now. Their preponderance of numbers and industry in these overseas theatres that then turn to ashes is another recurring theme. :confused:
Good idea. Some of these provinces are coming under serious and sustained pressure and you might as well cause the Soviets as much pain as possible!
This is it. Although their manpower reserves are traditionally considered almost limitless, the Poles (by the end of June) alone have caused them almost a million casualties, the other Allies combined even more. They can't sustain that forever and the Allied EU arrangement still has lots of industry and manpower behind it. Especially when the fight is close to home. Looks like more WW1-style attrition lies ahead, so we may as well dig in and preserve our own and diminish the enemy reserves as much as possible. Grim stuff indeed.
The bad news being that 15,000 of those casualties were on the Polish side. :eek:
Yes, not something we want to keep happening. We'll have to try to harden that province up when the resources can be spared ... but there are many priorities.
The province has probably been trashed by the heavy fighting as well...
Yes, the repair demand is constant.
In an earlier screenshot the defence was being led by von Manstein. Curious, as most of the defending divsions on both occasions were Polish. Probably the game is assigning the highest-skill general from the units involved in the battle?
Yes, I think that is it. The same thing occurred to me and when I checked this on a few different occasions, it was the higher skill officer that seemed to be preferred.
Nearly half of Poland's casualties in the month were the caused by enemy air power. Fighters and AAA should perhaps be priorities now for Polish war production?
And the ratio is increasing as we go. Both of these have been high and increasing priorities for quite a while now, but getting the new AA batteries fitted out in so many infantry divisions is really taking time, while LL support in that area has been pretty minor. Seems there are not many surplus AA guns to go around.
The reports are becoming more efficient, they don't even bother with brief hints of hope now and just focus on bad news.
Haha, true. One report for all fronts coming up for next month: if this war is going to drag on for some time yet, I'll try to do that for these attritional phases where not a lot of manoeuvre is happening.
Some of you may say, "but there was that Polish victory". The Soviets will take a 1:1.3 casualty ratio all day long and twice on May Day, those sort of exchange rates will burn through Polish manpower reserves while barely making a date in Soviet ones.
Yes, if that rate was more widely applied we'd be in trouble. But it was more an exception than the rule and even with that battle, was at around the 1:6 mark that month (even higher earlier in the war).

Thanks all for the support an your patience while I'm distracted by sport in RL (gotta go on, even in the middle of a frosty winter - it's been -4c overnight the last few days) and preparing to relaunch the TT game component through a minor game mod and major save game edit! :)
 
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Chapter Seventy-eight: The Grindstone (June 1946)
Chapter Seventy-eight: The Grindstone
(June 1946)

AuthAAR’s Note: Merging it all back into a single episode to cover the whole month across the world. Trying to push through to see if one side or the other can finally get a decisive upper hand, given how evenly balanced the war remains after all these years at the grindstone.

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Polish troops taking a break from the fighting on the Eastern Front to discuss the latest ‘world great power rankings’ and the fact it does not include Poland (due to industrial capacity). “But we punch above our weight, which is the most important thing,” Jerzy remarks to his friend. “That’s right,” agrees Tadeusz. “And the Allies still control significantly greater combined industrial capacity than the enemy, even including the power of America. We can still win this thing.”


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The Americas

May 1946 had ended with a deteriorating Allied position in Mexico, with new large=-scale American landings in south-east Mexico and an American breakout along the Baja Peninsula. On 6 June, the US had 13 divisions ashore in two separate beachheads, though they had not yet been able to take a port to bring in the vital supplies needed to sustain them. Though they were trying hard in Coatzacoalcos.

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And in Mexico more widely, by mid-June the US was progressing steadily down the Baja Peninsula. But their other attacks in the north were all being successfully defended for now and they had failed to gain that vital port in the south-east, where lack of supplies once more seemed to have bogged down the landings.

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Once again, the Allies seemed to be more resilient in Mexico than many had expected. And there had been no change of the front lines in eastern Canada.

By the end of June Baja had been lost but the rest of the theatre, both in the north and south-east, held firm for the Allies. The US landings in and around the Yucatan Peninsula remain contained and the Allies still held territory in southern Texas and in southern California and Arizona.

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Bafflingly, the US had been unable to push out of Villahermosa to Coatzacoalcos, even though the latter was now undefended: perhaps they did not have the supplies to move.

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In the north-west, Phoenix remained in Allied hands and an Anglo-German column was still holding east of Los Angeles.

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And in the north-west, the Allies were holding fast against the latest US offensive in the centre and held onto San Antonio.

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By the end of June, the US had managed a modest push forward in the south of the line in Canada.

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There was regular fighting but no change on the ground in Guyana, where three French divisions held out in Cayenne against the latest American attack.

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Western China

With the Allies holding well enough in Sinkiang, another Polish division – mountaineers this time – was pulled out from Yarkand on 1 June, to be transferred to Iran, where their specialist skills would come in handy in the mountainous east of the country.

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By mid-June, the Allied line was being held in the west and north, while a slow fighting withdrawal continued in Western China.

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To assist the remaining defenders in Yarkand, which came under frequent attack during the month, a branch rail line from Kashgar was begun on 21 June in an effort to improve their supply situation.

By the end of June 1946, the MAB had made modest but steady gains in Western China (pink on the map below) and the 4thInt had reclaimed a little territory in the north. Yarkand was under attack once again: there had been 14 battles decided so far during the month, with the Soviets suffering a ridiculously high casualty ratio for no gain.

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South East Asia

After their May landings in the eastern Indonesian islands, the US made no further progress in early-mid June. But in Indochina, the Allied position continued to collapse in on itself. Though Phnom Penh was still holding on, by 4 June the MAB was enveloping the Allied line in the north, where there were no troops to stop them.

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By 15 June, Phnom Penh had fallen and the remaining Allied troops were falling back on the last Allied port in Indochina.

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Five days later the last stand was being made: it was hoped that the encircled Franco-German task force might be able to escape by sea.

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Within a week it was all over: Indochina was fully in MAB hands.

At the end of the month, the US were still trying – unsuccessfully so far – to get across into Eastern Java against the Anglo-Dutch defensive force east of Soerabaya.

NP6Prb.jpg

And sometime in the last week or so a Japanese force had landed in southern Malaya. But they had again not been able to gain a port on landing and were now facing supply shortages as they sat in their beachhead.

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Iran and Iraq

The Polish presence in Iran continued to keep Iran in the fight during June 1946 but it was tough going: not as large a grindstone to work on as the Eastern Front though still intense enough. On 2 January, an important defensive victory was won in Yasuj (1,340 Allied, 2,450 Soviet casualties) but the enemy would continue to attack the key point throughout the month as the Poles were forced to rotate troops through in combination with British formations.

Over in the east, Birjand was another target of intense Soviet pressure, who seemed determined to take back the centre that the Poles had fought for so hard in the preceding weeks. By 7 June the previously solid defence was in trouble, as the Polish and Nationalist Chinese (under British command) forces there began to buckle.

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6 and 32 DPs were ordered up to reinforce the defence., though the 32nd in particular was not yet fully recovered from their previous efforts. By that evening, on the KBK remained in the line, while 8 DP was added to what was not anticipated to be a relief in place or counter-attack.

NGKsul.jpg

The KBK would be forced to retreat the following morning.

6 DP would arrive in Birjand first to start a new defence on 11 June but were soon under the pump, being attacked by five Soviet divisions (and three more in reserve) while 8 and 32 DPs were in place but also remained in reserve. The now mainly recovered 7 DP was ordered up to help from the south.

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However, after another hard fight, the battle would be lost three days later before 7 DP could arrive, with 8 DP (the last resisting division by the 13th) having been ordered to withdraw. Birjand was reoccupied by the Soviets later on the 14th.

With Birjand lost and a more defensive posture being adopted, rail upgrades were begun on 16 June to assist with the difficult supply situation in Kerman.

KLraye.jpg

Over in Yasuj, repeated Soviet attacks were beaten back, until by the early morning of 22 June their latest assault looked like it would succeed. Three refreshed Polish divisions were sent back up to relieve Yasuj, though the current British defenders would be defeated by the early afternoon. It had been a costly battle for both sides.

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Fortunately, 16, 26 and 29 DPs arrived in time to mount a renewed defence and would heavily defeat the now more tired Soviet attackers by 26 June.

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On 28 June, a Soviet assault on northern Kerman had wrested more ground from the Poles south-west of Birjand, but General Żeligowski was unwilling to surrender that ground without another fight. The Soviet advance guard was counter-attacked early on the 30th and had been defeated by the afternoon.

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Before the province could be retaken, a Soviet cavalry division had arrived to mount a hasty defence, which the Poles, with a little Allied support, was in the process of throwing back.

As the month ended, Yasuj was under attack again but holding. It had been the focus of the fiercest fighting in the theatre all month, with 25 battles fought over it (sometimes multiple attacks and probes in a single day) and tens of thousands of troops dying in it.

LXMIBy.jpg

The Allies had managed to mainly hold the line in Kurdistan and Iraq, with Mosul and Baghdad being retained. Iran had been kept in the fight for another month, at least distracting the Soviets from (for Poland) the ‘main game’ on the Eastern Front.

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Georgia

The Allied invasion of Georgia had appeared on the brink of defeat by the end of May 1946. By 6 June they were still in place, having largely help in place for the last week. However by the 11th they had suffered a setback with a Soviet drive to the Black Sea Coast cutting off four Anglo-Dutch divisions around Sukhumi. And the Soviets were attacking all along the line of the southern Allied beachhead.

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The Allies were not yet out of it though, with a counter-offensive moving east out of Sukhumi supported by a strong Allied counter-attack from the south to relieve the Sukhumi pocket by mid-June.

The relief had been completed by the 30th, with Sukhumi back in supply and the province to its east still in Allied hands. Again, the Allies had defied expectations to hold on in a difficult situation.

qqyOlL.jpg


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Eastern Front

The heavy but largely stalemated fighting on the Eastern Front continued through June 1946, with Poland taking the lead in the fight against the Soviets, heavily supported by the Czechs, Yugoslavia and the other Western Allies. A series of large battles carried over from late May in the north and centre concluded on 2-3 June in Wilejka, Minsk and Wołyn. In each case, the Soviets suffered very heavily by comparison to the Allied defenders.

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By the 13th, the Polish high command had decided that the mountain division currently in the Khmelnytskyi sector would be better used in Iran – and could be spared from the heavy ongoing battle there. 50 DPG was soon loaded on trains and headed for Athens, for transhipment to the Middle East.

In the south, a series of large battles in the Khmelnytskyi were concluded from 1-10 June – the largest, in the south-west, incurring very heavy casualties on both sides, with more than 20,000 men falling.

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By 26 June, the latest Soviet attack on south-west Khmelnytskyi was making progress, with a massive 25 Soviet divisions tackling 12 defending formations. Four more rested divisions were sent back into the line and an upgrade begun for the Lwów-Khmelnytskyi branch rail line to help with the bad supply situation.

By the morning of the 28th, the situation in the south-west had been stabilised but a new attack on western Khmelnytskyi was making inroads, with one rested heavy division and another still disorganised militia division sent in to help their outnumbered comrades.

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The latest great fight for south-west Khmelnytskyi was won – more convincingly this time – by early on the 30th.

More widely, a new large Soviet offensive was under way at this time, being held in most places comfortably but causing problems (other than in western Khmelnytskyi) south of Minsk, where the earlier Czech-Yugoslav offensive had taken ground the Poles had not themselves moved into (due to past heavy losses in such adventures).

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Two more large defensive battles in the north and centre, in Wilejka and Wołyn again, would be won by the Allies on 29-30 June. The situation in Estonia remained deadlocked and relatively quiet. Surprisingly, the Czech and Yugoslavian toehold would be held by the end of the month after some fresh reinforcements arrived there to reinforce their comrades.

And in a rather perplexing aside, a survey of Norway revealed Kirkenes, on the northern (neutral) Finnish border had, in addition to the one Norwegian garrison division, 14 French and three British divisions defending it!

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Domestic Front

The Polish destroyer fleet received a major upgrade design on 6 June, with research then being applied to developing a basic strategic bomber – just in case Poland ever managed to develop an atomic weapon it would be needed to deliver.

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A few days later, that atomic research received a boost with the completion of the Polish Atomic Physics Institute. The focus was then switched to construction repairs, given the heavy toll on infrastructure on the Eastern Front (though looking at it in retrospect, I should have chosen construction engineering instead and will do when I resume).

On 10 June, the recruiting of new divisions finally resumed (they had been on hold due to ongoing AA and AT equipment shortages) with a new mountain division begun (which just needed some more infantry equipment). And the relative weakness in Polish military manufacturing was addressed again when a new military factory was commenced in Warsaw on 26 June.

By the end of the month, the AA and AT shortages persisted, but the Air Force had now built up a decent reserve of aircraft types, with the most modern versions becoming a higher proportion of the wings. Once more, none were committed during June and they were left in reserve for a more decisive point.

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In summary, Polish manpower gains had greatly outweighed combat losses (22,000) in June, leading to a rise in the reserve manpower pool of around 90,000 men, despite the raising of the new mountain division. More than half the Polish combat losses had been due to enemy air action: the possibility of the PAF taking to the skies again on the Eastern Front would at least be considered in July.

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Both sides in the war fielded about the same manpower, perhaps the Allies a few million more, and likewise a far larger industrial output. Poland and the USR dominated each other’s casualty counts (caused and received). The overall Soviet-Polish casualty ratio (caused to each other) stood at 5.5-1: it had been getting steadily worse for the Poles since May.

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But the Soviets were taking almost 100,000 casualties from the Poles alone per month: importantly, the median Allied intelligence estimate was they had around 2,090,000 men in reserve at that time (pretty accurate when compared with the actual figure). Given the further attrition from other Allied armies, it seemed the Soviet manpower pool was far from inexhaustible. For now, this would persuade the Polish General Staff (at least) to persist with the current defensive blood-letting strategy.

Although not considered a ‘major power’ in the Allies, Poland had the fifth largest army (by a long margin over the Czechs and Italians) and was the fifth largest overall war contributor (fourth if the surrendered China were eliminated from the equation).

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I was surprised that Yugoslavia was a great power and that Japan did not have more factories. The military cemeteries are doing a brisk business. Taps or its national equivalent has been played far too many times for far too many young people. Thank you for the update.
 
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The Allies are fine so far as industry and tech go but manpower the US and Russia can best them. And now the Americans are fighting in the Pacific as well, rhe British cannot cover everywhere. If they focus too much in the far east, or on islands, or any random front, persia collapses and Russia has the advantage again.
 
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Will it matter that the game is an old build with only a few of the DLC?
I don't think so. I can always roll back my version of HOI4 and disable/enable DLC as needed to match your file.
Bafflingly, the US had been unable to push out of Villahermosa to Coatzacoalcos, even though the latter was now undefended: perhaps they did not have the supplies to move.
I think that's what the red exclamation mark means on the US divisions.
By the end of June 1946, the MAB had made modest but steady gains in Western China (pink on the map below)
I like the new colors you're using to show the frontline changes. Very nice!
The Allies had managed to mainly hold the line in Kurdistan and Iraq, with Mosul and Baghdad being retained. Iran had been kept in the fight for another month, at least distracting the Soviets from (for Poland) the ‘main game’ on the Eastern Front.
As long as the Allies can hold here (a big ask), the Soviets should be distracted enough to not fully commit to the main Polish border.
it seemed the Soviet manpower pool was far from inexhaustible. For now, this would persuade the Polish General Staff (at least) to persist with the current defensive blood-letting strategy.
The Soviets definitely don't have as much manpower as China. The problem is that they are close to the Allied core. Poland has the weight of the world on its shoulders.
 
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“That’s right,” agrees Tadeusz. “And the Allies still control significantly greater combined industrial capacity than the enemy, even including the power of America. We can still win this thing.”

Tadeusz is correct in theory, but all that Allied industrial strength has rarely delivered tangible results. :(

By the end of June Baja had been lost but the rest of the theatre, both in the north and south-east, held firm for the Allies. The US landings in and around the Yucatan Peninsula remain contained and the Allies still held territory in southern Texas and in southern California and Arizona.

Largely a stalemate in Mexico at present, but it's the Americans who are continuing to make the running. However, the US landings in the Yucatan are probably doomed unless they send in fresh forces.

By the end of June 1946, the MAB had made modest but steady gains in Western China (pink on the map below) and the 4thInt had reclaimed a little territory in the north.

It is disappointing to the see the MAB making significant progress in China after the earlier Polish effort in this theatre. It was inevitable though that the Allied disaster in Manchuria was going to free up a lot of MAB divisions for other fronts, and that's probably what we're seeing here.

Five days later the last stand was being made: it was hoped that the encircled Franco-German task force might be able to escape by sea.
Within a week it was all over: Indochina was fully in MAB hands.

Regrettable, but compared to Manchuria this defeat is fairly minor.

At the end of the month, the US were still trying – unsuccessfully so far – to get across into Eastern Java against the Anglo-Dutch defensive force east of Soerabaya.

With any luck the straits will spare the Allies any further embarrasment. :D

The Allies had managed to mainly hold the line in Kurdistan and Iraq, with Mosul and Baghdad being retained. Iran had been kept in the fight for another month, at least distracting the Soviets from (for Poland) the ‘main game’ on the Eastern Front.

The line was held, mostly, but the Soviets still managed to take Birjand despite determined Polish resistance.

The relief had been completed by the 30th, with Sukhumi back in supply and the province to its east still in Allied hands. Again, the Allies had defied expectations to hold on in a difficult situation.

Disaster averted! Well done, Allies... for once.

And in a rather perplexing aside, a survey of Norway revealed Kirkenes, on the northern (neutral) Finnish border had, in addition to the one Norwegian garrison division, 14 French and three British divisions defending it!

Artifical stupidity strikes again! o_O

In summary, Polish manpower gains had greatly outweighed combat losses (22,000) in June, leading to a rise in the reserve manpower pool of around 90,000 men, despite the raising of the new mountain division. More than half the Polish combat losses had been due to enemy air action: the possibility of the PAF taking to the skies again on the Eastern Front would at least be considered in July.

It is reassuring to see Polish manpower actually increasing despite all the heavy fighting. Regarding the losses to enemy air action I would suggest the best way the PAF can help is by investing first in the fighter arm - and yes, only intervening selectively when circumstances and aircraft reserves allow.

But the Soviets were taking almost 100,000 casualties from the Poles alone per month: importantly, the median Allied intelligence estimate was they had around 2,090,000 men in reserve at that time (pretty accurate when compared with the actual figure). Given the further attrition from other Allied armies, it seemed the Soviet manpower pool was far from inexhaustible.

Soviet manpower may not be inexhaustible, true, but they probably have additional draft laws at their disposal if they need them. On the overall manpower question, you're up against China, the US, the Soviets and Japan, all of whom have larger populations than any of the European countries (although the British do have India). We've seen that Poland can manage an advantageous casualty ratio but wherever the AI is involved I think we must assume the ratio is going to be roughly 1:1. Another worrying sign is that the Allied superiority in the number of divisions fielded seems to be continuing to erode.
 
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Let's be honest, if we were not contending with the AI, a combined US and USSR and China assault against the rest in the mid 40s would doom everyone else.

As it is, the war is not going well. If the amercians focused purely on smashing the Allies out of North amercia, or did something like invading the british Isles, it would all be over.
 
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Some time back in April I bought the base version of HoI4 with the three oldest DLC integrated. Found this AAR shortly after and have been catching up since then.
Not only has it been an amazing ride, but also I learned a lot about the mechanics from following the discussions here!
Cheers for keeping this going for so long already, looking forward to find out whether General Żeligowski will ever make it into retirement.
 
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Some time back in April I bought the base version of HoI4 with the three oldest DLC integrated. Found this AAR shortly after and have been catching up since then.
Not only has it been an amazing ride, but also I learned a lot about the mechanics from following the discussions here!
Cheers for keeping this going for so long already, looking forward to find out whether General Żeligowski will ever make it into retirement.
A quick response just to say welcome aboard @Micutio and thanks for commenting :) Glad it’s been of help - that’s what I’ve always thought gameplay AARs are substantially for. Mine anyway and especially this one, given I’d barely played HOI4 before.
 
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What a varied update! In some places the Allies are losing slowly, while in others the Allies are losing quickly.

Apart from all the other problems does Poland even have time to fight a war of attrition? Even assuming the Soviets cant go to better recruitment policies, it is still going to many months of hard fighting to burn through all their reserves, given how everything else is collapsing I don't think there is the time.
 
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OK, next session played and illustrated, now to write up the action. First, comment responses for those I hadn't replied to yet.
I was surprised that Yugoslavia was a great power and that Japan did not have more factories. The military cemeteries are doing a brisk business. Taps or its national equivalent has been played far too many times for far too many young people. Thank you for the update.
I guess it's all the conquests they got in the Balkans early on, and they may have been building more industry than Poland has. The casualty lists grow ever longer, with the current generation suffering like the last did in WW1. :(
What recruitment law are the Soviets on, if you have any idea?
They are on the same as Poland as it happens: extensive conscription. With the Polish manpower actually increasing healthily, there seems no need to take ours any higher.

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Whereas the Soviets, with far heavier casualties, no doubt many unit builds and fighting on far-flung fronts, the drain seems to be quite heavy.

The Allies are fine so far as industry and tech go but manpower the US and Russia can best them. And now the Americans are fighting in the Pacific as well, rhe British cannot cover everywhere. If they focus too much in the far east, or on islands, or any random front, persia collapses and Russia has the advantage again.
Not so sure about the Soviets (that is our one small ray of hope, while all around grows darker), but the rest of the enemy nations do have plenty. For now Mexico is draining and distracting the US (though at high Allied cost) and the Soviets are finding it an expensive grind on all their fronts. The Allies I think have always been under-performers 'away from home', but better in Europe itself. Again, it is a faint hope for us that a strategic loss, at least, might be avoided.
I like the new colors you're using to show the frontline changes. Very nice!
Thanks! May not deploy them in every update, but will see what is needed to highlight changes as we go along.
As long as the Allies can hold here (a big ask), the Soviets should be distracted enough to not fully commit to the main Polish border.
Kurdistan and Iraq seem to have stabilised and should be an easier front for the Allies to man, supply and hold. Iran, perhaps not so much! It would have surrendered some time back if not for the Polish 5th Army. As for the Polish border: the High Command now believe it to be almost impregnable for the foreseeable future. But other flanks or strategic shocks could prove our undoing.
The Soviets definitely don't have as much manpower as China. The problem is that they are close to the Allied core. Poland has the weight of the world on its shoulders.
This is very true. We are now (with help, to be fair) keeping the eastern bulwark secure while the Allies fall back (at varying speeds) on almost all other fronts.
Tadeusz is correct in theory, but all that Allied industrial strength has rarely delivered tangible results. :(
This shows the hope/propaganda keeping the Polish fighting man (and me as the player!!) from soldiering on. If the outer theatres do collapse, it would be good to see them throw some real weight against Trotsky 'at home'. But that remains hope, not an expectation.
Largely a stalemate in Mexico at present, but it's the Americans who are continuing to make the running. However, the US landings in the Yucatan are probably doomed unless they send in fresh forces.
This is an accurate summary. I don't like the way things are trending there, despite the 'rage against the dying of the light' that has kept the Allies going here longer than I expected.
It is disappointing to the see the MAB making significant progress in China after the earlier Polish effort in this theatre. It was inevitable though that the Allied disaster in Manchuria was going to free up a lot of MAB divisions for other fronts, and that's probably what we're seeing here.
Yes, at least it has kept the Communists occupied and bleeding for years now, but the trend there has, as with Indochina, seen the Polish High Command lose any optimism they may have had for the theatre and thus the slow staged withdrawal, first to try to hold Iran, and if that fails too, maybe either the Middle East or back home - for some future Spring Offensive.
Regrettable, but compared to Manchuria this defeat is fairly minor.
Small beer, but they do keep spilling it ... :(
With any luck the straits will spare the Allies any further embarrasment. :D
That's the hope. Unless they (or the Japanese) do another outflanking naval landing.
The line was held, mostly, but the Soviets still managed to take Birjand despite determined Polish resistance.
It's a real dog fight there, with no positive trend: just trying to keep it broadly neutral really.
Disaster averted! Well done, Allies... for once.
For now!
Artifical stupidity strikes again! o_O
Yup :rolleyes:
It is reassuring to see Polish manpower actually increasing despite all the heavy fighting. Regarding the losses to enemy air action I would suggest the best way the PAF can help is by investing first in the fighter arm - and yes, only intervening selectively when circumstances and aircraft reserves allow.
Yes, the fighter arm has been getting the main priority, that and AA to gradually kit out the AA battalions that were added to the infantry division template some time back. But it's slow going with those. Unless there's a severe situation - or a later offensive - on the Eastern Front, we'll be leaving it to the vast masses of Allied aircraft their industry has been producing.
Soviet manpower may not be inexhaustible, true, but they probably have additional draft laws at their disposal if they need them. On the overall manpower question, you're up against China, the US, the Soviets and Japan, all of whom have larger populations than any of the European countries (although the British do have India). We've seen that Poland can manage an advantageous casualty ratio but wherever the AI is involved I think we must assume the ratio is going to be roughly 1:1. Another worrying sign is that the Allied superiority in the number of divisions fielded seems to be continuing to erode.
They would have, yes, see above. Though beyond their current level they have other costs, of course. Fair assumptions there - and the Allies have had way more dramatic and massive 'pocket and destruction' episodes than their opponents, which has not helped at all.
Let's be honest, if we were not contending with the AI, a combined US and USSR and China assault against the rest in the mid 40s would doom everyone else.

As it is, the war is not going well. If the amercians focused purely on smashing the Allies out of North amercia, or did something like invading the british Isles, it would all be over.
Largely, yes. Having the US against us has been a massive, massive cost and drain (actual and opportunity costs). The Arsenal of Democracy has just been an Arse of Democracy, I'm afraid!
What a varied update! In some places the Allies are losing slowly, while in others the Allies are losing quickly.

Apart from all the other problems does Poland even have time to fight a war of attrition? Even assuming the Soviets cant go to better recruitment policies, it is still going to many months of hard fighting to burn through all their reserves, given how everything else is collapsing I don't think there is the time.
Yep, fair call! Maybe not: I think Poland has the time, but not so sure about their Allies! We'll be following the Polish and Soviet (especially) manpower trends more closely in coming months, as the High Command looks for an offensive opening: ideally after their front line divisions start to weaken but before the other theatres collapse completely and the distractions are lost. Possible maybe, probably maybe not.
 
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Chapter Seventy-nine: Determination (July 1946)
Chapter Seventy-nine: Determination
(July 1946)


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Polish President Ignacy Mościki addresses troops on the Eastern Front, 1 July 1946. A count of the words used in the speech showed that ‘determination’ featured more prominently than any other concept. Hope was for the faint of heart: determination and persistence were now the order of the day as the ‘endless war’ just kept rolling along without quarter or mercy.


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The Americas

The US landings in the Yucatan area remained out of supply and contained all through the first three weeks of July 1946. But in the north, the situation had deteriorated steadily for the Allies, who had lost San Antonio in the east and Phoenix in the west, retaining only small footholds in the US in both areas by 22 July.

It was in this context of the worsening Allied position in Mexico that Poland received a very surprising offer from Germany on 24 July: a corps of six Wehrmacht divisions was offered as an expeditionary force – but they were all scattered over the Mexican theatre! The offer was accepted the divisions grouped under a new 7th Army, commanded by General Stanisław Sosabowski [an exquisite irony, German troops under Polish command in WW2].

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They were in turn placed under Field Marshal Rydz-Śmigly’s renamed Expeditionary Army Group, along with the 4th army in Iran and the small 6th Army (more a small corps strength now) in Sinkiang. For the rest of the month they would broadly try to assist the Allied delaying defence in northern Mexico, while the High Command decided what to do with them in the longer term.

By 27 July the Allied front in the east was collapsing, with a dozen divisions surrounded on the Gulf Coast as the Allies tried to break them out in the south with an attack that did not look to be strong enough.

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In the centre and west, four of the new EF divisions were trying to help the Allies hold back the enemy as they risked another pocket forming along the border towards the end of the month. And in an ominous development, two Japanese divisions were spotted, assisting their Mexican allies east of Tijuana.

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Little had changed in Canada over the month, with a few indecisive smaller scale battles fought, while the US and its partners (Mexican, Philippine and now Japanese troops) kept up the pressure in northern Mexico.

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The Gulf pocket was still holding out, but it looked like half the trapped divisions must have surrendered and no serious attempt was being made to rescue them.

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The Yucatan beachheads remained well contained, with more Allied troops (including one of the expeditionary divisions) now in the vicinity.

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But in sad news, after many months of resistance, the French foothold of Cayenne in Guyana had been lost during the month to American occupation.

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Asia

The Japanese landings in Malaya were still active early in the month, but they were unable to capture a port and would eventually wither on the vine later in the month.

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The US would remain stalled in Bali, unable to cross into Eastern Java by the end of the month. But the Japanese once more managed to get ashore in Papua late in the month. This time they were able to capture a port to provide resupply. It remained to be seen whether the Allies would be up to responding to this latest landing effectively.

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And in Western China, a number of Allied divisions were also in danger of being cut off after the MAB broke through to the Tibetan border: they were not quite cut off yet, as Tibet had joined the Allies some time back.

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Georgia

The somewhat Quixotic Dutch-led invasion of Georgia carried on into July 1946 with a surprising revival. By 5 July, another province was won back to deepen the bridgehead to the east and the Allies were attacking into the mountain while they resisted the latest Soviet attack west of Tbilisi.

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A week later, the Allies had carved out a salient into the mountains but were being counter-attacked strongly north-east of Sukhumi.

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However, twelve days later all of these gains had been eroded and the Soviets were again closing in on Sukhumi, this time from the north-west. The Allied beachhead was now being controlled by the British in the north around Sukhumi and the Dutch around the port of Batumi in the south.

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By the end of the month, the Soviets had compressed the beachhead back to the Batumi enclave, where a largely Anglo-Dutch force continued to hold out. This time at least they had viable escape routes either by sea or through neutral Turkey, where the Allies had military access.

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Eastern Front

The Eastern Front was relatively quiet through July 1946. The Poles launched no attacks of their own and there were relatively few Allied or Soviet offensives during the month. Only three large battles involving Polish troops were resolved, two in the south around the Khmelnytskyi hotspot, the other to the north in Wilejka. The front line remained static and as the month ended the only fighting in the east was up in Estonia.

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Iran

This month, by far the heaviest Polish involvement in fighting occurred in Iran, concentrated around Kerman and Birjand in the east and Yasuj-Ahvaz in the west. This was a mixture of defensive and attacks designed to just do enough to keep Iran in the war. The battles were far smaller in scale than those on the Eastern Front, so while the fighting was fierce and more even, the overall Polish casualties for the month were considerably lower than previously.

The month started with three Polish generals, led by the redoubtable Lucjan Żeligowski, racking up some new combat skills on 1 July. Unfortunately, within a week old Żeligowski was wounded as he got a little too close to the fighting in Kerman and would be recuperating for the next three months.

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Józef Haller was transferred to command the 4th Army in Iran, while the experienced Marian Kukiel (injured months before and then forgotten about after his recovery) came in behind Haller to take over the much-reduced 6th Army in Sinkiang. [Note: had I realised that before moving Haller over, I would have swapped him in straight for Żeligowski. This was also well before Sosabowski was drafted in to command the new EF in Mexico.]

Another determined Soviet attack on Yasuj was defeated on the morning of the 1st (471 Allied, 2,100 Soviet casualties) though it would be far from the last for the month. But for the newly appointed Haller, most of the action at this time was concentrated in the east. A counter-attack to retake the recently lost north Kerman province encountered a recently arrived Soviet mechanised division early on 2 July but brushed them away easily after a three-hour skirmish.

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North Kerman was reoccupied that night, coming under immediate heavy counter-attack by three Soviet divisions. 18 DP was the first to arrive and had to soak up the punishment until their comrades could reinforced them. By the following morning, the defence had at least been stabilised.

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And with Birjand apparently unguarded, Haller risked a quick probe with 6 DP from north-east Kerman, to see if they could slip in without the Soviets noticing.

However, that evening 6 DP ran into a recently arrived Soviet division, which was significantly disorganised and with poor supply but occupied good mountain defensive terrain. 6 DP pushed on, hoping for a quick victory dash.

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Unfortunately, the Soviets had strong air support and 6 DP soon began to run low on supplies and the momentum of the battle flipped completely. Despite a victory in north Kerman, the attack on Birjand had to be abandoned by the evening of the 4th after turning into an expensive failure.

Over in Yasuj, the Allies won another big defensive victory in Yasuj on the afternoon of 5 July (2,900 Allied, 5,290 Soviet casualties; one Polish out of 10 defending Allied divisions, some of the others having been forced to retreat earlier) but the pressure was kept up by a determined enemy after that.

In north Kerman, the Soviets took advantage of 6 DP’s weakness after their Birjand probe. An attack by three divisions from Birjand badly defeated them and a co-located British division at 1300hr on 8 July (1,360 Allied, 373 Soviet casualties). Relief was on the way though and 28 DP was able to resume the defence on the morning of 10 July.

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Their prospects were improved when four Polish divisions struck Birjand from north Kerman that evening. The defence of north-east Kerman would be won by midday on the 11th, while the larger fight for Birjand continued.

While this dynamic situation played out in the west, the previously strong Allied defence of Yasuj had been worn away by constant Soviet attacks and by 12 July their hold was becoming precarious. A three-division Polish relief column of now rested troops was sent to relieve their comrades.

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They would not arrive in time to save the current defence, which was lost on the 13th with heavy casualties on both sides. Then a British division managed to arrive in time to set up a fragile defence while the Poles rushed to reinforce them.

Meanwhile, the Polish attack on Birjand was proving tough going, with momentum flagging by the morning of 13 July: two of the four attacking divisions had been forced to abandon the assault.

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The recently arrived 2 DP in north-east Kerman then made a flank attack on Birjand, breaking the deadlock and leading to an expensive victory by the afternoon of the 14th.

The Poles arrived on the morning of 15 July to join British and South African divisions in the defence of Yasuj, swinging the battle back in favour of the Allies. Both sides would rotate troops through over the following nine days.

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But in the end Soviet numbers and determination prevailed, one of the hardest-fought battles of the Iranian campaign ending in an enemy victory on 24 July.

In the interim, Birjand was re-occupied on 16 July by the Polish advance guard of 32 DP – who were quickly overpowered by a three-division Soviet counter-attack (just 31 Polish casualties taken before they fled). More Polish troops were arriving piecemeal, with 2 DP renewing the defence on 18 July before again losing on the 20th.

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By that time, another four divisions were on their way to Birjand, including a recently transferred mountain division from Sinkiang. Haller was determined to retake Birjand, in part to offset the expected loss of Yasuj in the west.

Those troops would arrive progressively in the coming days, the first two re-establishing the defence of Birjand on 21 July and then finally winning the defence on the 29th after more reinforcements assisted.

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In the west, Yasuj still held out on 26 July, despite the earlier enemy victory, with 15 DP mounting a desperate defence after pulling in to the ruined town early that morning. Only 1 DP was sufficiently recovered by that point to be sent to their relief from the south-west, but it would take them some time to complete the march.

It was not quick enough to save Yasuj from being occupied soon after 15 DP was defeated on the morning of 27 July. Then the advancing 1 DP quickly defeated the Soviet advance guard and desperately tried to retake the key town that had been fought over so hard for so many weeks. A plea was put out for Allied support to help hold Yasuj.

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At midday, disturbing reports were heard from Ahvaz: the previously secure Allied defence was now under heavy pressure from a Soviet attack. This risked the loss of the nearby oilfields and a threat to the narrow Allied land corridor running through Iraq and Kuwait to the rest of Iran, plus the two ports at the top of the Persian Gulf.

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Two recovered divisions that might otherwise have been sent to support 1 DP in Yasuj were instead sent north-west to assist the defence of Ahvaz. Things were becoming ever more precarious in this corner of the front.

1 DP was able to retake Yasuj on the evening of 27 July, even as 15 DP was still retreating. Of course, they came under immediate Soviet counter-attack. With the situation worsening in Ahvaz, those two divisions were kept on course.

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But the cupboard was bare: no more Allied units would arrive to assist and the Poles had no ready units to send into what now looked increasingly to be an impossible situation. 1 DP was forced to flee early on the morning of 29 July. The long Allied defence of Yasuj was over.

As the month was drawing to a close, Ahvaz fell to the Soviets: 16 and 29 DPs were still en route, delayed by an irritating series of Soviet holding attacks. They did manage to defeat the worn out Soviet troops that had occupied Ahvaz at 0700hr on 31 July but were still some way off.

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The other three Polish divisions were sent to secure the port south of Ahvaz, to ensure it was defended and able to provide both supply and a fall back position and escape route in case the Poles made it to Ahvaz but were not then able to hold it.

As it happened, 23. Pz Div was able to retake Ahvaz a few hours later, though by the end of the day they had almost been defeated by the Soviet follow-on force. The Poles were still stuck in a new holding attack, this time from Yasuj.

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The second half of the month had been relatively quiet in eastern Iran, where the defence of Birjand and northern Kerman was being consolidated. Iran remained in the war but teetering close to capitulation, Kurdistan somewhat less so. The Eastern Front was quiet, as we have seen.

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The Allied position in Western China continued to gradually erode, especially in the south, as noted previously, though with Tibet still available for a long delaying defence if the Allies could avoid encirclement and destruction in the south.

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Domestic and International Affairs

By 1 July all the equipment demands had been met for the new mountain division – 113 DPG – under training in Warsaw. While a majority of the infantry equipment requirement had been met from a mix of older and newer Polish gear. All that was left now was their training time.

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A growing shortage of AT guns led to offers of lend-lease equipment being made by Ireland and Australia on 18 July. The other area of equipment deficit remained AA guns, where production was slowly ramping up and little or no LL support was available.

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A small sliver of good news came on 25 July with the entry of Denmark into the war as a member of the Allies: every little bit would help, though it was hardly a game-changing development.

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As the month ended, a new military factory came on line in Warsaw and it was tasked to increase AA production (now 4/34 factories). Construction output was directed to another military factory for Warsaw, which should be ready towards the end of August (bringing it to 19/20 building slots used).

The Allied-Communist-US War had now seen over 27 million killed with about the same total manpower (or slightly less) fielded in the militaries of both sides. Total Allied casualties were 70,000 higher during the month than for the enemy. Poland had only suffered 13,100 in losses, all to the Soviets, causing around 27,300 to them. This lower ratio was due to the nature of the fighting in Iran, which made up the bulk of Soviet-Polish combat in July.

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According to the available figures – which may be a little rubbery for the Soviets – Poland had seen a net growth in manpower reserves of over 139,000 during July. The Soviets had lost around 170,000 men in fighting but had seen a decline in reserve manpower of over 350,000 to about 1.735 million. It was presumed this must have been accounted for by the recruiting of new units (perhaps the equivalent of around 10-15 new divisions). With their current conscription laws, the Poles figured they were now in a state of low manpower and would be forced to either widen the draft (at the expense of domestic industry) or start suffering shortages at the front in coming months.
 
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It was in this context of the worsening Allied position in Mexico that Poland received a very surprising offer from Germany on 24 July: a corps of six Wehrmacht divisions was offered as an expeditionary force – but they were all scattered over the Mexican theatre!

With elections looming in Germany, the outgoing government clearly hopes to keep some of its military assets out of communist hands. A weird choice to transfer divisions in Mexico over to Poland though!

By 27 July the Allied front in the east was collapsing, with a dozen divisions surrounded on the Gulf Coast as the Allies tried to break them out in the south with an attack that did not look to be strong enough.

The Yucatan beachheads remained well contained, with more Allied troops (including one of the expeditionary divisions) now in the vicinity.

At least these two pockets will cancel each other out... :rolleyes:

But the Japanese once more managed to get ashore in Papua late in the month. This time they were able to capture a port to provide resupply. It remained to be seen whether the Allies would be up to responding to this latest landing effectively.

With a couple of other unoccupied ports open to the Japanese we could be witnessing the start of another lengthy campaign?

The month started with three Polish generals, led by the redoubtable Lucjan Żeligowski, racking up some new combat skills on 1 July. Unfortunately, within a week old Żeligowski was wounded as he got a little too close to the fighting in Kerman and would be recuperating for the next three months.

This is most unfortunate news. I wish the general a speedy recovery. Poland needs him!

Those troops would arrive progressively in the coming days, the first two re-establishing the defence of Birjand on 21 July and then finally winning the defence on the 29th after more reinforcements assisted.

As it happened, 23. Pz Div was able to retake Ahvaz a few hours later, though by the end of the day they had almost been defeated by the Soviet follow-on force. The Poles were still stuck in a new holding attack, this time from Yasuj.

Well done on recapturing Birjand... but the Allies have lost Yasuj and the overall position looks perilous. If Ahvaz were to fall it appears the Allied front would be cut in two? Not good. :eek:
 
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Good to get this update although it continues to be quite the slog.

A small sliver of good news came on 25 July with the entry of Denmark into the war as a member of the Allies: every little bit would help, though it was hardly a game-changing development.
I am always going to cheer on the Danes. Not a game changer as you said, but good to have them helping.
 
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Hope was for the faint of heart: determination and persistence were now the order of the day
President Mościki has a point, no-one could read that update and have any hope. I would however perhaps tweak his order of the day;

General Melchett said:
If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.

On a more useful note, if manpower is starting to get low in Poland is a switch to airpower possible? It seems to be inflicting large casualties on Poland so a large run of fighters (to get air superiority) and then loads of CAS might be a plan that plays more to Poland's relative strengths, at least on the Eastern Front?
 
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