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Thank you everyone for your patience, I have a bit of clearer air at the moment, so found time to play the next month through and write it up (all in the one episode this time).
Sound like the move is going well then. Good luck with it! :)
Exacerbating Allied concerns was a new US incursion in the south, where the Allies had been slow to respond to a new amphibious lodgement.
If the Allies can get their act together, I only see one US division here in the south. But the Allies don't seem to be coping with the pressure well.
By the end of the month, a new Allied naval invasion of Batumi in Georgia had seen an Anglo-French corps lodged successfully, making the northern flank of the Soviet incursion into Turkey quite insecure.
This is the kind of initiative that's needed to send the Soviets packing!
The US had managed to push further along the southern coast of Java but the overall Allied position was not at in hazard. No further advances would be made there for the rest of the month.
The US also looks easy to cut off here. But that requires the Allied AI to notice and be bold.
A few days later, the Allies reported some significant progress being made in Estonia, where the Allies had gained a numerical advantage and were pushing forward, including an isolated run along the border of neutral Latvia where a Czech division had almost managed to link up with north-eastern Poland.
An excellent breakthrough right before your own offensive! Even if the USA and MAB theaters look bleak, the USR looks about ready to suffer a major defeat.
 
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Polish troops on the move to jumping off positions for the Great Winter Offensive, early November 1946.
If I didn't know better I'd say Poland was 'scrapping the barrel' (or somewhere even less pleasant) for those troops. They are not grade A recruits are they?

Two Australian divisions were now in place in a still s[arse defensive line.
Australian slang, the moment you think you've mastered it they pull out something new like that. One cannot help but be impressed by it.

All in the hope of seeing the Soviets tire themselves out and run down their manpower reserves before the proposed Polish attack in early December.
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Distractions, multiple fronts, battles elsewhere, all of that seems fine. But hoping to run down Soviet manpower reserves... Bold. I see the Soviets have lost 4 million so far, which seems a big number but they lost 4.5m during Operation Barbarossa alone (At least. Probably.)

Still, with everything collapsing all around them, some of it slower than other parts but still collapsing, I do wish the Poles luck with their grand winter offensive. I fear they will need it.
 
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Australian slang, the moment you think you've mastered it they pull out something new like that. One cannot help but be impressed by it.
:D Oops, that’s what I get for using the little laptop keyboard and screen while my main rig is all packed away! I’d better haul s[arse and fix it! :p
 
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The trials and tribulations of Job look rosy compared to this AAR. Thanks
It's certainly gone on longer than I thought it would and has proved remarkably even and hard fought on man fronts for long periods in the second half of the war.
Sound like the move is going well then. Good luck with it! :)
Well enough! It will hot up again in a couple of weeks. :eek:
If the Allies can get their act together, I only see one US division here in the south. But the Allies don't seem to be coping with the pressure well.
No, they're not. And it won't be just the one division ... :-/
This is the kind of initiative that's needed to send the Soviets packing!
Every little bit helps. Though we've seen so many times how initially promising breakthroughs get shut down by one side or the other. Even if not permanently.
The US also looks easy to cut off here. But that requires the Allied AI to notice and be bold.
The qualification here is apposite! o_O
An excellent breakthrough right before your own offensive! Even if the USA and MAB theaters look bleak, the USR looks about ready to suffer a major defeat.
This is better. Some definite assistance being provided in this softening up.
If I didn't know better I'd say Poland was 'scrapping the barrel' (or somewhere even less pleasant) for those troops. They are not grade A recruits are they?
Haha, well AI can only do so much. We now have significantly more reserve manpower than the Soviets, so I'd hate to see what their recruits are looking like by now! :D
Distractions, multiple fronts, battles elsewhere, all of that seems fine. But hoping to run down Soviet manpower reserves... Bold. I see the Soviets have lost 4 million so far, which seems a big number but they lost 4.5m during Operation Barbarossa alone (At least. Probably.)
This is not a wishful thought, but is based on detailed statistical analysis of their manpower trajectory over months. Yes, they have already lost 4m men (on all fronts) before the offensive starts and I'm not sure how accurately the game models the numbers compared to OTL. Their disadvantage here is that they're fighting on at least three major fronts and a couple of minor ones before our push starts.

Though, to be fair, what we're planning is nowhere near as big as Barbarossa and I have no real experience of the game to guess at how it will go. But we have to do something. And some decent encirclements will increase their casualties far more than even a series of one-sided Polish defensive victories. We shall find out together!
Still, with everything collapsing all around them, some of it slower than other parts but still collapsing, I do wish the Poles luck with their grand winter offensive. I fear they will need it.
No doubt! Into the breach ...
 
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Further east, the Allied failure to properly man the line along the Rio Grande had seen US/TRA troops take both Reynosa and Matamoros by 12 November, threatening the key rail hub of Monterrey.

Four days later, the situation was still gradually deteriorating in the north of Mexico.

It is starting to look rather bleak in Mexico! For one thing it's apparent the Allies have really drawn down their strength and that suggests they're really starting to feel the pain everywhere now. One other thing I noticed is there are hardly any US divisions on the entire Mexican front in any of the screenshots. It's their allies who are taking the strain. So where have the Americans gone and what are they doing? :eek:

As November came to a close, it seemed clear that the slow Allied downfall in Mexico was continuing as Polish concerns now turned to preservation of the PMK and avoiding a possibly hazardous eventual evacuation from Pacific Coast ports, given US control of the Panama Canal and a number of hostile TRA countries – and navies in Central and South America.

I think it really is necessary now to consider evacuation plans. Best to try to get out through the Atlantic ports I would have thought...

By 9 November the Soviets had made an incursion into the north-eastern tip of Turkey, though in a line to the south down to Kurdistan the Allies held steadily.

Turkey has some excellent defensive terrain so I'm not as concerned about the Soviets making progress here as I probably should be... :D

By 9 November the American lodgement in northern Australia seemed to have lost momentum and they had still not been able to capture a port for resupply. Two Australian divisions were now in place in a still sparse defensive line.

That's at least a half dozen divisions the Americans have thrown away in this crazy venture - but it's still going take quite some time for the Aussies to finish them off!

A look at the terrain over the front line showed that the marshes of Mozyr would present a challenge to attacking and attrition and slow movement considerably. It was also the focal point of the imminent coup.

This was the reason the primary Polish attack would come to its north, through the plains in the Minsk sector. If it looked worthwhile, the southern pincer would strike through the plains of eastern Ukraine towards Kiev.

Ambitious! :cool:

If the plan is to encircle the marshes entirely that is going to create a pretty huge cauldron. Assuming this goes well I do hope the Poles have enough divisions to keep the trap closed!

A few days later, the Allies reported some significant progress being made in Estonia, where the Allies had gained a numerical advantage and were pushing forward, including an isolated run along the border of neutral Latvia where a Czech division had almost managed to link up with north-eastern Poland.

This is positive from the Allies and the progress of that single Czech division really shows the Soviets have nothing in reserve to the north. Very encouraging. :)

The coup in Byelorussia would launch in just a couple of days, with estimated popular support for the pro-Polish BSA at a high point of 57%. Its launch would signal the beginning of the most ambitious and potentially decisive Polish operation of the war so far.

This has to be the most important Polish operation of the war so far and with Allied fortunes everywhere else going backwards, failure is not an option!
 
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It is starting to look rather bleak in Mexico! For one thing it's apparent the Allies have really drawn down their strength and that suggests they're really starting to feel the pain everywhere now. One other thing I noticed is there are hardly any US divisions on the entire Mexican front in any of the screenshots. It's their allies who are taking the strain. So where have the Americans gone and what are they doing? :eek:
Very bleak - with now more MAB and TRA divisions entering in. Still don’t know where those extra US divisions are going. :confused:
I think it really is necessary now to consider evacuation plans. Best to try to get out through the Atlantic ports I would have thought...
Problem is those recent US landings took the last Atlantic ports in Mexico proper and cut off the one in Yucatan. The only way out in that direction now is to fight for one of them and it could be too late for that. :( Otherwise it will have to be via the Pacific - the long way back, with sharks lurking.
Turkey has some excellent defensive terrain so I'm not as concerned about the Soviets making progress here as I probably should be... :D
Yes, and not so many exposed VPs at the eastern end plus open lines of communication with Europe. Hoping it will be a quagmire for the 4thInt.
That's at least a half dozen divisions the Americans have thrown away in this crazy venture - but it's still going take quite some time for the Aussies to finish them off!
I’d rather they sent divisions there and in Java than Europe, that’s for sure.
Ambitious! :cool:

If the plan is to encircle the marshes entirely that is going to create a pretty huge cauldron. Assuming this goes well I do hope the Poles have enough divisions to keep the trap closed!
Any sizeable encirclement would be welcome: we’ll need a few to make any significant impact on the Soviets. As we’ve seen on many occasions, success will bring reaction. The hope is that with so many jackals tearing at their flanks, one or more will get through to the jugular.
This is positive from the Allies and the progress of that single Czech division really shows the Soviets have nothing in reserve to the north. Very encouraging. :)
It was a pleasant surprise: if nothing else it should divert forces from elsewhere. My worry is the ability of the Allies to push decisively. We’ve seen so many ‘false dawn’ offensives from both sides in this long war.
This has to be the most important Polish operation of the war so far and with Allied fortunes everywhere else going backwards, failure is not an option!
Whether it is victory or death, it will be glorious! May the Winged Hussars once more tear across the plains to reclaim the Polish patrimony of old! :D
 
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Chapter Eighty-seven: A Winter Storm (1-15 December 1946)
Chapter Eighty-seven: A Winter Storm
(1-15 December 1946)


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Polish troops in Western Byelorussia prepare their detailed battle plans after being given the initial orders for Operacja Zimowa Burza (Operation Winter Storm), 30 November 1946.

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Winter Storm – Week One

With the Byelorussian coup just a day away and some separate Allied attacks already showing promise, ‘Phase 0’ of Operacja Zimowa Burza (OZB) kicked off at midnight on 30 November 1946 with a ‘shaping’ attack to reinforce the Czechs [already at 70% progress] east of Minsk.

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At the same time, the majority of PAF fighter wings were ordered into the air to run intercept missions in the Belarus air zone. It would also test the environment before the bombers were committed as the offensive geared up.

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It would take some time for the full picture, including the Soviet and Allied responses, to develop. But initially, the enemy presence was relatively modest.

After a few hours, a more detailed analysis of enemy numbers was made, after the 4thInt added more bombers into the fray, while a wing of Estonian fighters was assisting the Poles. Polish air power was not yet being factored into the air superiority calculations.

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As it happened, the first advance of the offensive at the end of the day had been achieved by the Czechs without the need for Polish support, whose troops had so far just been in reserve (no battle report). They would push forward to assist the Czech advance guard which was being counter-attacked, while reserve forces moved up to the front line, including the bulk of 1st Army mobile divisions.

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By that time, the first aerial victories for the PAF had been recorded.

The coup in Mozyr went off right on schedule at 0100hr on 2 December 1946. The marshes of Mozyr came under nominal rebel control east of those already in Allied hands, throwing the local Soviet forces into confusion.

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The Belarusian Socialist Assembly (who did not seem to be socialists at all by political ideology) fielded five divisions and a small squadron of aircraft; they soon joined the Allies. The storm had broken!

Up in Estonia, the Allies were making a useful diversion, though a large part of their forces in the region remained well behind the lines in reserve at Tallinn.

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In the southern sector, at this time the Soviets were largely on the offensive, so the Poles were content to hold the line and inflict as many casualties as they could for now.

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South-east of Minsk a C-Y attack was beginning to bog down, so that afternoon the Poles ordered two militia divisions to reinforce: the Soviets had plenty of numbers, but many of their formations were quite disorganised from the fighting so far.

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As 3 December began, the Soviets seemed to have temporarily removed their fighter cover in Belarus. So far, four enemy fighters had been shot down and two bombers brought down by AA fire in the sector, for no Allied losses.

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As the main first wave of Polish troops got into their forward positions, three attacks were in progress by early on 4 December aimed at the cities of Mogilev and Bobruysk. Some initial analysis was done of the ratio of air to ground combat casualties in a few of the larger battles, all of which had been won by the early morning of 6 December. The heaviest fighting was in Bobruysk province with 10,000 men in total from both sides killed.

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By this time the Allies (mainly the PAF) had achieved air superiority over Belarus as the 4thInt had still not reintroduced fighter cover to the air zone. This reprieve would not last, however.

The morning of 5 December saw over 1,200 Soviet fighters re-enter the fray. The Allies had thrown in wings from a number of countries, plus the plucky ‘Free’ Belarussian squadron. Far more Allied support planes had joined in (almost 1,700) plus 300 German tactical bombers. With that kind of enemy fighter presence, the precious PAF bombing arms were kept back for now.

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Within two hours, another 200 Allied fighters had been committed (one wing each from Nationalist China and Bulgaria) and enemy losses crept up, with no Allied planes downed yet since the start of the month. By that evening, the multinational Allied effort had maintained air superiority, as they added more fighters and the Soviets withdrew them.

The first three OZB objectives had been taken early on 7 December, bringing the Polish advance guard divisions to the outskirts of Mogilev and Bobruysk as the main assault force continued to push forward in an attempt to maintain the momentum. The first week of the Winter Offensive drew to a promising close.

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The Americas

None of the news out of Mexico was good for the Allies. Although there had been many ebbs and flows there, in December 1946 their cause seemed to be in a terminal decline. The US effort was now being bolstered by co-belligerent MAB forces sent to support the MAB-aligned Mexican government, while the new TRA allies of the US had also begun to feed troops into the conflict. On 4 December, the Polish-led PMK was part of an Allied defensive line that was solid enough in the north but whose southern flank was not anchored due to the US-TRA breakthrough into eastern Mexico.

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And in the south, a range of TRA allies from the Caribbean and South America had come ashore in strength in Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. This seemed to doom the substantive Allied presence in Mexico, even if they managed to keep some enclaves alive in the longer term as they had in Canada and Newfoundland.

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By mid-month the main Polish concern was to ensure none of their EF there ended up being cut off and destroyed.

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The Middle East and Central Asia

After a period of stasis in Iran, the Soviets had managed to push forward into a salient between Kerman and Bandar e’Abbas. On 11 December, the largest battle in Iran of the first half of December had been won by the Allies at Kerman and it was decided to ship across the last Polish mountain division (which had made its way by rail through Turkey all the way from Poland) to Bandar.

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On the morning of 15 December, the situation in Turkey and the Middle East was little changed since the start of the month. The two Communist factions were making slow (but hopefully expensive) headway in Western China.

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The South West Pacific

By 6 December the Allied front line in Papua was holding fast, while the three isolated and unsupplied Japanese divisions on the north coast were being attacked and finally looked like collapsing.

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Although the US now had a full corps in the salient south of Soerabaja, the Allies had also brought in reinforcements to strengthen the line in Java. It would hold through to 15 December.

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Similarly, the US had made no more progress in Northern Australia by mid-month. Papua was holding strongly and had destroyed the Japanese enclave in the north.

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Winter Storm – Week Two

With the success east of Minsk of the initial Polish offensive attacks and the disruption caused by the Belarus coup, the Soviets had slightly thinned their line in the south and stopped attacking. The Poles decided to make a couple of strong probes of their own at midday on 8 December, to see if any inroads could be made and to at least ensure the Soviets had another distraction to cope with. The first signs were promising as the non-mechanised divisions made the first attacks.

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The air war in Belarus was going well, with only one fighter lost and twelve enemy fighters and six bombers shot down since the start of the month.

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Two hours later, Poland sent in more fighters from their reserve in Warsaw plus 270 bombers and 99 CAS, deeming it now safe enough to do so.

The breakout from the first objective line in Byelorussia began towards Mogilev and Bobruysk that evening as the rest of the 1st Army mobile assault force continued to move up from depth. If Bobruysk could be taken, it would cut off up to 15 Soviet and Byelorussian divisions in the marshes to the south-west, wedged against the new Allied Belarus.

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And by 0600hr the next morning Polish advance guards had taken Bobruysk and Mogilev and three 4thInt corps cut off, with the Poles now working to secure their recent gains.

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That evening both cities were being more strongly held, placing the Byelorussian SSR under increased pressure.

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But to the south, the attacks in Khmelnytskyi had run into trouble as the Soviets dug in.

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By the morning of 10 December the Poles in Mogilev had defeated one counter-attack and were fending off a new one, even as the province to their south was occupied and they were making a river crossing to the east.

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The attacks in the south were still being pressed and a new opportunity to the north was taken where the Soviet line had been thinned.

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The air war over Belarus was now in full swing, with thousands of aircraft involved on both sides, with the Allied casualties starting to come but 4thInt losses still far heavier.

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The attack south of Khmelnytskyi was faltering as the enemy spoiled to its south, so was called off on 11 December. By then, the attack to the north had succeeded as the Poles sought to outflank the city of Khmelnytskyi from that direction.

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That province was occupied at 0100hr on the 13th, with a flanking attack launched three hours later on Khmelnytskyi. This climactic battle would end two and a half days later in a Polish victory.

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The bridgehead from Mogilev to northern Gomel was seized on the evening of the 13th after a short attack, coming under strong enemy counter-attack when it was occupied. More Polish forces were seeking to expand this bridgehead to the south even as the defending Soviet army commander was recuperating from wounds suffered in the fighting, hampering their efforts.

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The air war in Belarus raged on as the Allies maintained a slight edge in the superiority stakes. The Allies had lost 21 aircraft in the first half of December, the 4thInt 58 according to the available records [not sure how many of these were Polish].

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Since Operacja Zimowa Burza had started, the Poles had lost a total of around 14,000 troops on all fronts; of these the Soviets had killed about 13,100. During the same time period, the Soviets had sustained around 240,000 casualties, with an estimated 135,100 lost to the Poles.

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On the broader Eastern Front, fighting continued in the Archangelsk enclave and in Estonia. Many 4thInt troops remained trapped in the marshes just north of Mozyr as fighting raged in western Ukraine and central Byelorussia.
 
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By mid-month the main Polish concern was to ensure none of their EF there ended up being cut off and destroyed.
Time to pull back to the Yucatan?
And by 0600hr the next morning Polish advance guards had taken Bobruysk and Mogilev and three 4thInt corps cut off, with the Poles now working to secure their recent gains.
The first encirclement of hopefully many.
That province was occupied at 0100hr on the 13th, with a flanking attack launched three hours later on Khmelnytskyi. This climactic battle would end two and a half days later in a Polish victory.
Attacking Khmelnytskyi was costly. But the provinces to its east and south look open enough for you to surround the city.
Since Operacja Zimowa Burza had started, the Poles had lost a total of around 14,000 troops on all fronts; of these the Soviets had killed about 13,100. During the same time period, the Soviets had sustained around 240,000 casualties, with an estimated 135,100 lost to the Poles.
A great ratio. Onwards to Odessa and Vitebsk!
 
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It is wonderful news that your ankle is better. Is your residence change close enough that you can use same shopping, medical and emu typists or will you and Queen @Bullfilter have to develop new support systems? Thanks and good luck with the moving.
 
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While news from everywhere else is either flat or terrible, it does seem the Polish Winter Storm is doing well. As noted the casualty ratio is impressive so maybe the 'Bold' plan will work after all?
even as the defending Soviet army commander was recuperating from wounds suffered in the fighting, hampering their efforts.
Disappointed by Chuikov, the Hero of Stalingrad and 'The Man of Iron Will' letting a little thing like a wound hamper his efforts. Stalin will not be impressed.
 
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And in the south, a range of TRA allies from the Caribbean and South America had come ashore in strength in Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. This seemed to doom the substantive Allied presence in Mexico, even if they managed to keep some enclaves alive in the longer term as they had in Canada and Newfoundland.

By mid-month the main Polish concern was to ensure none of their EF there ended up being cut off and destroyed.

This picture seems to be deteriorating fast! Preserving the EF and keeping open a line of retreat does seems critical, agreed. Unfortunate you'd have to evacuate from the Pacific ports now but it might not be as bad as you think. I had the experience of evacuating Italian forces from east Africa and having to send the troop ships the long way around that continent all the way back to Bordeaux, and I don't recall much interference from the Allied navies.

By 6 December the Allied front line in Papua was holding fast, while the three isolated and unsupplied Japanese divisions on the north coast were being attacked and finally looked like collapsing.

Although the US now had a full corps in the salient south of Soerabaja, the Allies had also brought in reinforcements to strengthen the line in Java. It would hold through to 15 December.

The worst thing about these side-shows is they're pulling Allied units from more important theatres. Same with the doomed US landing in Australia really.

The coup in Mozyr went off right on schedule at 0100hr on 2 December 1946. The marshes of Mozyr came under nominal rebel control east of those already in Allied hands, throwing the local Soviet forces into confusion.

The Belarusian Socialist Assembly (who did not seem to be socialists at all by political ideology) fielded five divisions and a small squadron of aircraft; they soon joined the Allies.

Nice! :)

What happened to the Soviet forces in the parts of Belarus that rebelled? From the initial screenshot it looked like they would re-occupy most of the country almost immediately - but later on it looked as if they'd just vanished?

The morning of 5 December saw over 1,200 Soviet fighters re-enter the fray. The Allies had thrown in wings from a number of countries, plus the plucky ‘Free’ Belarussian squadron. Far more Allied support planes had joined in (almost 1,700) plus 300 German tactical bombers.

By that evening, the multinational Allied effort had maintained air superiority, as they added more fighters and the Soviets withdrew them.

Two hours later, Poland sent in more fighters from their reserve in Warsaw plus 270 bombers and 99 CAS, deeming it now safe enough to do so.

Very good news from the air war! Both sides have thrown in a lot of reserves but the Allied air forces seem to be holding the edge and inflicting greater casualties. Curiously, the air superiority statistics appear to list all the Allied participants with the exception of Poland's fighter contingent? Confusing. o_O

If Bobruysk could be taken, it would cut off up to 15 Soviet and Byelorussian divisions in the marshes to the south-west, wedged against the new Allied Belarus.

And by 0600hr the next morning Polish advance guards had taken Bobruysk and Mogilev and three 4thInt corps cut off, with the Poles now working to secure their recent gains.

That makes for a very good start and I don't see the Soviets managing to rescue those divisions. :)

The attack south of Khmelnytskyi was faltering as the enemy spoiled to its south, so was called off on 11 December. By then, the attack to the north had succeeded as the Poles sought to outflank the city of Khmelnytskyi from that direction.

That province was occupied at 0100hr on the 13th, with a flanking attack launched three hours later on Khmelnytskyi. This climactic battle would end two and a half days later in a Polish victory.

That was a hard-fought victory in Khmelnytskyi and one that secures a useful air base. I hope the Poles can sustain the momentum and perhaps take that rail junction to the east?

Since Operacja Zimowa Burza had started, the Poles had lost a total of around 14,000 troops on all fronts; of these the Soviets had killed about 13,100. During the same time period, the Soviets had sustained around 240,000 casualties, with an estimated 135,100 lost to the Poles.

That's a very healthy rate of exchange. The Soviets are going to be needing to extend their draft sooner rather later. :D
 
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OK, RL still throwing curve balls and soaking up much discretionary time, but the other AARs have since been updated and it's time to write up the second half of last month's Winter Offensive action. But first ...
Time to pull back to the Yucatan?
Per earlier and below, Yucatan already cut off and all eastern coast ports now in enemy hands, so it looks like either going the long way around a partly hostile South America, or even through the Pacific, perhaps doing some 'work' along the way!
The first encirclement of hopefully many.
Here's hoping, though I think that one was the low hanging fruit. More disruption of their line needed to get more, and the weather won't be helping.
Attacking Khmelnytskyi was costly. But the provinces to its east and south look open enough for you to surround the city.
Yes, a bit of a cost, but has hopefully been keeping them pinned a bit down there. Will soon see where things go in the southern sector from there.
A great ratio. Onwards to Odessa and Vitebsk!
Huzzah! Apart from ground gained, either wearing down their reserves to nothing or forcing them into less efficient manpower policies is another of the meta objectives for this offensive, given the pressure they remain under elsewhere. As long as they buckle somewhere, we'd be happy! Strategically, we need a major victory against one of the principal enemies (ie taking them out of the war) and it doesn't look like happening with the US or MAB.
It is wonderful news that your ankle is better. Is your residence change close enough that you can use same shopping, medical and emu typists or will you and Queen @Bullfilter have to develop new support systems? Thanks and good luck with the moving.
Thanks. It's in the same city but to a different part, so some new stuff but nothing too disruptive. The emus will still have plenty of foraging to keep them going ;)
While news from everywhere else is either flat or terrible, it does seem the Polish Winter Storm is doing well. As noted the casualty ratio is impressive so maybe the 'Bold' plan will work after all?
Early days yet and the history of the game so far has repeated examples of one side consolidating after initial setbacks, but it's better than doing nothing (both for the game and the story)! Entropy is flowing against the Allies, so a player-led attempted circuit break was called for.
Disappointed by Chuikov, the Hero of Stalingrad and 'The Man of Iron Will' letting a little thing like a wound hamper his efforts. Stalin will not be impressed.
Yeah, SOFT. Time for him to HTFU (a bit of an Australian slang abbreviation I won't spell out at the risk of offending some sensibilities :D).
This picture seems to be deteriorating fast! Preserving the EF and keeping open a line of retreat does seems critical, agreed. Unfortunate you'd have to evacuate from the Pacific ports now but it might not be as bad as you think. I had the experience of evacuating Italian forces from east Africa and having to send the troop ships the long way around that continent all the way back to Bordeaux, and I don't recall much interference from the Allied navies.
Useful to know. Per above, will consider the two main withdrawal directions once the time comes.
The worst thing about these side-shows is they're pulling Allied units from more important theatres. Same with the doomed US landing in Australia really.
True, though I guess they're also diverting the enemy too. Probably balances out between the two in the end.
Nice! :)

What happened to the Soviet forces in the parts of Belarus that rebelled? From the initial screenshot it looked like they would re-occupy most of the country almost immediately - but later on it looked as if they'd just vanished?
Not sure, I tried keeping an eye on them but couldn't work it out. I suspect they retreated in various directions but can't be sure.
Very good news from the air war! Both sides have thrown in a lot of reserves but the Allied air forces seem to be holding the edge and inflicting greater casualties. Curiously, the air superiority statistics appear to list all the Allied participants with the exception of Poland's fighter contingent? Confusing. o_O
Yes, it was better than expected. I too was wondering about the air sup stats, but some do eventually appear.
That makes for a very good start and I don't see the Soviets managing to rescue those divisions. :)
The bag has been tied off quite securely and we will soon see how that goes.
That was a hard-fought victory in Khmelnytskyi and one that secures a useful air base. I hope the Poles can sustain the momentum and perhaps take that rail junction to the east?
This sector is at present more about keeping those extra forces away from Belarus, then waiting to see if it weakens enough for a second pincer to get going. Any perceived weakness will be pounced upon, but otherwise diversion and attrition will be the short term operational goals.
That's a very healthy rate of exchange. The Soviets are going to be needing to extend their draft sooner rather later. :D
It was surprisingly good for an offensive period. Not sure we can keep it up if/when they reorganise their defences, be we'll do our best to keep the pressure up.
 
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Chapter Eighty-eight: Red Blooms on the Snow (15-31 December 1946)
Chapter Eighty-eight: Red Blooms on the Snow
(15-31 December 1946)

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Polish infantry march towards the enemy in the culminating battle of the Bobruysk Pocket, December 1946.

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The Gomel Bridgehead: 15-18 December

By mid-December 1946, the first two weeks of Poland’s Operacja Zimowa Burza (Operation Winter Storm) had made strong gains in Byelorussia (or Belarus, as the Poles would now start referring to it) as the Mozyr Coup saw a friendly regime installed in the south of the country and over 150,000 4thInt troops isolated in the frozen marshland of the Bobruysk Pocket.

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For the next few days, Polish efforts would concentrate on expanding the line of advance in Gomel and consolidating their victory in the major Battle of Khmelnytskyi in the southern sector in the face of Soviet counter-attacks.

A secondary effort to support a C-Y attack in the north of Belarus west of Vitebsk, with mixed success, an expensive victory eventually being achieved in the far north after another six days of bitter fighting to gain the bridgehead (and noting not all the casualties suffered were Polish).

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By midday of 16 December, the initial battle to defend the first bridgehead in Gomel had been won, and then expanded to the south with another Polish corps lodged.

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The air war over Belarus had intensified, with a massive injection of German air power, plus considerable support from the RAF and other Allied air forces. Soviet losses were mounting as both sides used ground attack missions to support their troops in the field.

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Note: I’m still not really sure if the loss figures related to all the Allies or just Polish aircraft.

The next phase of the Gomel Bridgehead battle began early on 17 December and saw the line of attack extended to the east, against Soviet opposition that was light or non-existent initially but kept building up.

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Soviet numbers increased as Polish supply and the weather became more difficult. Momentum was slowed a little, but not stopped and both battles would be won in the next four days.

During this time, the Bobruysk Pocket had been ‘left to stew’, as sporadic Yugoslav attacks ran down 4thInt supplies without promising victory. On the Allied side, supply shortages in the breakthrough salient remained difficult but not critical.

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By the evening of the 17th, the next bridgehead battles remained in progress with stiffening resistance while the Bobruysk Pocket was firmly surrounded but no longer under C-Y attack.

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In the southern (Ukrainian) sector, the Soviets were trying to counter-attack after the Poles occupied the city of Khmelnytskyi.

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The Americas

On 15 December the Polish-led DMK (7th Army) was still trying to help the Allies hold the line in central Mexico but the gaps were too many and enemy strength growing through a mix of US/TRA and MAB forces.

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By 22 December, 340 Infanterie Div had completed its withdrawal, the Luftwaffen-Feld-Div 2 was trying to fight its way out of a possible encirclement and the 198th was also falling back to the closest port on the west coast.

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Three days later, on Christmas Day 1946 Luft-Div 2 was still stuck in its breakout attack, so the now in-position 198 Inf was able to assist. The battle was finally won that night.

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Having reached safety the next day, Luft-Div 2 continued falling back as 3 Gerbirgs-Div also tried to extract itself. The rest of the DMK either fell back towards its planned evacuation point or was covering the retreat if their comrades.

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As 1946 came to a close, Newfoundland/Labrador held its perimeter and all was temporarily quiet there. But in Mexico, the collapsing Allied position remained under heavy pressure as another potential disaster loomed: it was hoped the rest of the Allies managed to extract as many of their remaining troops there as possible before the end.

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The Battle of the Bobruysk Pocket: 18-23 December

At 0400hr on the morning of 18 December an intense artillery barrage heralded the start of the main Polish effort to reduce the Bobruysk Pocket, where 16 mainly Soviet divisions had been trapped for some days now.

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Ten Polish divisions from three different armies reinforced a struggling attack by four Yugoslav divisions on the main eastern end of the pocket, where eight Soviet and one Byelorussian division were trapped. This soon shifter the momentum in the Allies’ favour.

In the Gomel Bridgehead, an attempt to expand the lodgement further to the south had failed against increasing Soviet resistance on the evening of the 19th. But late that night an advance was made to the east of the bridgehead and the battle just north of that continued.

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By the afternoon of 20 December, the Soviets were counter-attack in many places across the front with mixed success and maintaining a perimeter around the Byelorussian temporary capital of Gomel. But the Allies were also still attacking in some places, with the greatest emphasis remaining on the Bobruysk Pocket.

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That battle was won shortly after and the eastern half of the pocket occupied at 0800hr on the 22nd. Within an hour of those lead Polish divisions had arriving, they had begun the final assault, reinforcing the almost-failed Yugoslavian attack before the enemy could regroup, immediately shifting the balance.

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Some shifts in the aircraft numbers deployed over Belarus had caused air superiority to shift in favour of the 4thInt on 21 December and Allied (Polish?) losses had begun to increase quite significantly. The Polish jet fighter reserve now numbered 62 aircraft, but they had yet to be risked in combat as the PAF continued to want the far larger Luftwaffe and RAF to carry the heaviest load.

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There was more unpleasant news when an Allied despatch reported that the Soviets had retaken Narva in Estonia. The Allies had many more divisions in reserve but at the front the odds were far more even. Whether this was because of logistics, weather and/or timidity was unknown to the Poles.

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As the fighting raged in the pocket west of Bobruysk, the Poles attempted to secure the southern flank of Khmelnytskyi with a large force overrunning a Soviet division there on the afternoon of the 22nd.

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In Bobruysk, the first Polish division had reinforced the front line of the attack. For the Poles, there were only minor logistical problems (-7.4%) but it was terrain (-43.6%) and the enemy’s entrenchment that were the major difficulties. The weather was an issue for both sides, while for the Soviets being unsupplied and encircled were the telling problems.

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The net effect was far more heavily in favour of the Allies than the Soviets on balance, despite the 4thInt’s greater numbers.

In Khmelnytskyi, the Soviets managed to slip in four better organised divisions by midday on the 23rd to resume the defence as the Poles and Yugoslavs tried to push onto the major rail junction of Vinnytsia. Soviet numbers had decreased somewhat in this sector over the last couple of weeks but they were still able to offer determined resistance.

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The Rest of the World

The front in Iran and the Middle East remained relatively stable in the second half of December, though by the 29th a determined attack on the Kerman salient had swung decisively in the Soviets’ favour.

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The Poles there were not willing to take on the brunt of the casualties and there was no desire to throw more troops into an exposed position. 5 and 32 DPs were ordered out before they started taking heavier casualties.

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At the end of 1946, the Allies had lost more ground in Western China, mainly to the MAB. The fronts in Turkey and the Middle East to the Persian Gulf remained stable.

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Not much had changed in the South-West Pacific either as the Allied defence of both Papua and Northern Australia had firmed up.

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One new development was a new US landing in east-central Sumatra, just across from Kuala Lumpur. There were considerable Allied defenders in the vicinity, so this looked like being another large side-show for both factions.

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The Last Dark Days of 1946: 24-31 December

The last week of the troubled year of 1946 began with one of the largest Allied victories of the war to date, certainly on the Eastern Front. Resistance in Bobruysk ended at 0500hr on 24 December, with over 150,000 enemy troops either killed or (mainly) captured. Not only did this permanently remove 16 enemy divisions from the order of battle, but in also freed up ten Polish divisions (all of them ‘foot’ infantry and militia) for other duties.

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In the Gomel Bridgehead, things were tough in the last week of December. In the south of the lodgement, two defensive battles secured that flank but further progress proved impossible for now, especially with the weather and supply conditions in the salient.

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But in the north of the bridgehead, no fewer than eight battles would be decided from 27-30 December over the depth objective. Three times, the Poles got troops in and three times they were ejected in increasingly small skirmished between exhausted opponents. But still the Poles persisted.

South of Khmelnytskyi the long battle raged on, flagging on the 24th, seemingly back on track when reinforcements were thrown in at midday, only to eventually be called off on the afternoon of Christmas Day when the Poles had been unable to reinforce the Yugoslavs to break through.

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That attack was discontinued, then re-launched as a purely Polish operation involving three corps later that night. This time the battle was won convincingly a day later, the province occupied and then defended from a Soviet counter-attack by the morning of the 28th.

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Supply in the cauldron of the Gomel bridgehead remained poor by 27 December as the Poles tried to maintain some forward momentum and awaited reinforcements released from the Bobruysk Pocket battle.

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Finally, by the end of the month a sturdier defence of the latest bridgehead breakthrough east of Mogilev seemed to have been established, though the latest Soviet counter-attack remained in progress. It remained to be seen how much regrouping and resupply would be needed before the next phase of the northern pincer thrust in Gomel could begin.

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In Ukraine, the key city of Zhytomyr was now contained in a large salient as the Allies, led by the Poles, encroached on Vinnytsia from the west and north in tough fighting. The Soviets had massed 16 divisions in the city itself. If another pocket could be created, their determination to hold it might be converted into an Allied triumph – though at what cost?

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Polish casualties had risen in the second half of December as the fight got nastier, though this was more than balance by the other heavy casualties suffered by the Soviets including in the Bobruysk Pocket, which helped to increase what would otherwise have been a closer casualty ration from ‘ordinary’ battles.

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It also appeared the Soviets must have been taking heavy casualties on other fronts too (depending on how some of these were being allocated) as they seemed to have suffered a massive loss of 620,000 men on all fronts in December. Their manpower reserves had now been reduced to around 330,000, while the Poles remained at a healthy 1.45M, essentially balancing their losses with new recruits for a roughly neutral outcome during a whole month of the offensive in atrocious winter conditions.

Few in any of the four major factions believed the new year of 1947 was likely to see the overall war swing decisively in favour of one side or the other, though both optimists and cynics had their views. Realists just saw another generation at war without relief ...
 
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In Ukraine, the key city of Zhytomyr was now contained in a large salient as the Allies, led by the Poles, encroached on Vinnytsia from the west and north in tough fighting. The Soviets had massed 16 divisions in the city itself. If another pocket could be created, their determination to hold it might be converted into an Allied triumph – though at what cost?
So you want to encircle Zhytomyr from the north and south (the yellow-star line), then potentially move south (along the blue-star line) to cut off Vinnytsia as well? A good plan if you can pull it off. You could also move north (the green-star line) to meet up with Allied Belarus before pushing on Kiev and Chenrigov.

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Elsewhere the Allies are still being pushed back. The Kuala Lumpur landing looks doomed for the US, but the fact they were even able to spare units for it and avoid Allied fleets is a bad sign.
 
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The performance in Winter Storm almost offsets the disasters and bad news from elsewhere. Almost but not quite, obviously the balance must be negative as this a Bullfilter AAR - the place where hopes goes to die. ;)

Given how fast the Mexican front is collapsing I am not as confident as others about the fate of the Sumatra landings. The US will soon have the forces to spare so I can easily see them pouring forces in, indeed they will have the forces to do that and reinforce their Australian foothold.
 
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Might we finally learn of the Rat of Sumatra? Is the world truly ready?
 
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A Rodent of Unusual Size? Inconceivable! :D
 
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So you want to encircle Zhytomyr from the north and south (the yellow-star line), then potentially move south (along the blue-star line) to cut off Vinnytsia as well? A good plan if you can pull it off. You could also move north (the green-star line) to meet up with Allied Belarus before pushing on Kiev and Chenrigov.
Possibly, though if a break opens up the grand plan is for a wider sweep to cut off all of western Ukraine, though that may never be possible. A tactical objective could be trying to surround Vinnytsia if they keep it so heavily garrisoned - do a Stalingrad on them, in broad terms. But we'll see what is possible.
Elsewhere the Allies are still being pushed back. The Kuala Lumpur landing looks doomed for the US, but the fact they were even able to spare units for it and avoid Allied fleets is a bad sign.
The US will soon have plenty of spare units if/when Mexico falls. They should try to finally take out Newfoundland really, then maybe try a springboard across the Atlantic. Which might be hard for them: it's a different proposition to OTL 1944. They don't have England as an aircraft carrier and forward base and would be opposed by a pretty solid Allied EU. Should prove interesting, anyway.
The performance in Winter Storm almost offsets the disasters and bad news from elsewhere. Almost but not quite, obviously the balance must be negative as this a Bullfilter AAR - the place where hopes goes to die. ;)
Haha, yes hard elsewhere but we'll do our best. All the other AARs have been or are trending to victory - or is the victory itself dark anyway due to the means of achieving it? This one is the most finely balanced I think I've had so far, which makes it interesting for me at least.
Given how fast the Mexican front is collapsing I am not as confident as others about the fate of the Sumatra landings. The US will soon have the forces to spare so I can easily see them pouring forces in, indeed they will have the forces to do that and reinforce their Australian foothold.
Could be, but they need to get a port. With that many Allied forces in the area and no port, they'll find it very hard to get much done and risk losing whatever they do get ashore. Where they (or the MAB) do grab a port early, they generally have far more success.
Might we finally learn of the Rat of Sumatra? Is the world truly ready?
Looking forward to the emergence of the ROUS onto the world stage.

Still a ways off from playing and writing up the next session, so all comments welcome on how the offensive has gone so far, predictions for its likely outcome or suggestions for the strategy from here. :)

For those following the RL saga, new house bought, old house just sold, moving in about 4 weeks. Will keep on the AAR trail in between RL distractions.
 
By 22 December, 340 Infanterie Div had completed its withdrawal, the Luftwaffen-Feld-Div 2 was trying to fight its way out of a possible encirclement and the 198th was also falling back to the closest port on the west coast.

Three days later, on Christmas Day 1946 Luft-Div 2 was still stuck in its breakout attack, so the now in-position 198 Inf was able to assist. The battle was finally won that night.

But in Mexico, the collapsing Allied position remained under heavy pressure as another potential disaster loomed: it was hoped the rest of the Allies managed to extract as many of their remaining troops there as possible before the end.

One or two tricky moments there trying to manage the retreat! Although I have every confidence you will get the German expeditionaries out safely, I am resigned to the remaining Allied forces being lost (yet again). If there's anything positive to take away from all this I suppose the Allied collapse is ultimately a consequence of the AI withdrawing most of its forces from this theatre and sending them elsewhere, so most of them have been evacuated already.

There was more unpleasant news when an Allied despatch reported that the Soviets had retaken Narva in Estonia. The Allies had many more divisions in reserve but at the front the odds were far more even. Whether this was because of logistics, weather and/or timidity was unknown to the Poles.

I don't really see any evidence of Allied supply issues along the front in Estonia. I suspect incompetence. :(

In Khmelnytskyi, the Soviets managed to slip in four better organised divisions by midday on the 23rd to resume the defence as the Poles and Yugoslavs tried to push onto the major rail junction of Vinnytsia.

This offensive is proving tougher than I'd hoped for. It also hasn't escaped my notice you're attempting a winter offensive - do you have any assessment if or how weather might be affecting operations?

One new development was a new US landing in east-central Sumatra, just across from Kuala Lumpur.

Each and every enemy mistake is to be welcomed! :)

The last week of the troubled year of 1946 began with one of the largest Allied victories of the war to date, certainly on the Eastern Front. Resistance in Bobruysk ended at 0500hr on 24 December, with over 150,000 enemy troops either killed or (mainly) captured. Not only did this permanently remove 16 enemy divisions from the order of battle, but in also freed up ten Polish divisions (all of them ‘foot’ infantry and militia) for other duties.

Excellent! The battle of the Bobruysk Pocket feels like the first genuine Allied success for a very long time. :cool:

In Ukraine, the key city of Zhytomyr was now contained in a large salient as the Allies, led by the Poles, encroached on Vinnytsia from the west and north in tough fighting. The Soviets had massed 16 divisions in the city itself. If another pocket could be created, their determination to hold it might be converted into an Allied triumph – though at what cost?

Taking either of the rail junctions at Zhytomyr or Vinnytsia would be good, but encirclements would obviously be better. We are going to need a lot more victories like Bobruysk to take down the Fourth International and change the course of the war...
 
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All the other AARs have been or are trending to victory - or is the victory itself dark anyway due to the means of achieving it?
That or the people achieving it and the horrors they will unleash, even if said horrors go unmentioned.

It is a foible of mine I freely admit; I don't really want to read about the victories of monsters, even fictitious ones that are very well written. But many do and I'm glad they find enjoyment in it, it's just not for me.
 
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