Still playing a very bizarre game: it’s now dec. ’42 and there is still no war, apart from Japan vs. China! Germany has stopped after conquering Poland, the Allies have refrained from DoW Germany and the only real action so far has been on the Balkans: Hungary had first annexed Slovakia (in 37!), and after the Treaty of Munich, the Balkans collapsed –the Hungaro-Bulgarian Alliance was formed against Romania and that country was overrun quickly, although the leftovers were allowed to remain as an independent country. Germany has DoW Jugoslavia and after success created Croatia. I am still playing as the USA and doing fine (IC is 375). But it has been inspirational and funny…
I’ve been pondering on a series of events regarding several minors, this time thinking of a possible Scandinavian Alliance. AFAIK, this was a political dream for many political leaders from all over political spectrum, but it never materialized because of circumstancial differences, opposing interests, a lack of serious commitment by respective political leaders and powerplay of involved major powers. However, it remained on the background, more or less as nowadays talk of politically uniting Europe, or the supposed Arabic unification being hoped for in the 60s/70s.
As history has proven, the Greater Scandinavian dream remained just that – a dream. However, I wonder whether circumstances might be created in which a union (or at least an alliance, led by whom? Sweden?) is created. I was inspired by the Hungaro-Bulgaro Alliance.
I believe that a chain-type series of events should be created in the respective Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and maybe also Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) allowing them move closer and closer together. Of course, this process of “integration” should hold pace with international developments, or in other words, is partly influenced by international events and the attitude of the surrounding major powers.
One of my main focal points in the early years of college was the role Finland played in WW2. I can go on for hours and hours, but I will not do so. This is not the time nor the place. Let me just say that I have come to deeply admire this small country for it’s role in WW2.
But now you know where my interest in this region comes from. As I understood from having studied Finnish history, all of the Scandinavian countries had several things in common (their neutral stance, a mistrust for surrounding major powers partly for historical reasons), but there were also differences that in the end proved too much to overcome for more political integration (Norway was primarily focused on relations with the UK, Denmark was deeply dependent on Germany, Finland tried to keep a delicate balance between Germany and the USSR, while Sweden tried to maintain it’s neutrality by having ties with all major powers in the region. Matters were complicated because of the fact that Norway and Finland were former colonies, exploited by the USSR, Sweden and Denmark.
All in all, looking at things from a 1936 perspective, things are unpredictable and might go every way.
And actually, they did! The Soviet invasion of Finland of ’39, the so-called Winter War, actually almost led Norway and Sweden to side with Finland. However, WW2 was already a couple of months old, and for both sides this new war opened up interesting possibilities. First, public support for intervention was high in the Allied nations. For the Allies, under the pretention of aiding Finland, there was now a clear-cut possibility to invade Norway, cutting off the steel supplies Germany was utterly dependent on. It is not at all clear in how far this invasion was actually meant to support Finland. Military documents from both French and British sources do not actually go beyond planning for an invasion in Norway, only referring to Finland in highly uncertain long-term future possibilities. Also, the drawn up battleplans simply were meant to invade the northern part of Norway and keep it under occupation –the only troops meant to go into Finland was the smallest amount possible, and officially they had to go despite orders otherwise (this way it was hoped for that war with the USSR could be avoided). After succesfully occupying northern Norway, more troops could be shipped in, who could be sent to Finland if necessary.
These plans were leaked, after which Germany hastily drew up it’s own plans for invading Norway and Denmark, to make sure no harm would be done to their vital interests. German HQ feared the Allied intervention, since the Kriegsmarine was so inferior to the Allied navies, there was not much they could do to prevent the landings.
In the end, all players were caught with their pants down. Before any of the warring sides could actually intervene, the Winter War was over: Russian casualties were so disastruously high, Stalin was keen to end the conflict, while the Finnish couldn’t resist the Russians for much longer.
The Allies did land in Norway, only to be caught by surprise by the German intervention. The campaign proved to be disastruous for the Allies; it even cost the British an aircraft carrier (torpedoed while on route back to Britain, carrying a full load of aircraft, meant for use in the Allied invasion in Norway), (wasn’t it HMS Furious?) caught off guard by a German U-boat.
But while the German invasion proved to be highly succesful, the Kriegsmarine especially was to pay a very high price –too high for a succesful invasion of the UK. But in the long run, the Finnish War can be seen as crucial to the eventual outcome of the war: the way the war was fought, and the enormous casualties inflicted by underequipped Finnish soldiers attracted much attention by all kinds of foreign observers and military liaison-officers, who reported their findings back to their governments. In Berlin, Hitler ottk notice of these findings, and after these reports he seriously changed his attitude towards and thinking of the USSR. He now became convinced the USSR could be crushed in a war, something he was not too sure of before. On the other hand, the devestating results of the Winter War triggered a complete and radical reorientation and modernisation of the Red Army- when Hitler invaded in 41 this had just started, but it was already implemented and just needed to be introduced much faster and on a larger scale. It also meant that a series of new innovations, designs and new production series was already in production, although on a small scale. But these designs and models did not need to be designed from scratch. So, in this sense, some say it is the Winter War where Hitler has really lost WW2…
Diplomatically, the Allies were embarassed by the whole affair; the leaking of the allied plans caused the Norwegian and Swedish government to protest loudly, and subsequently the Norwegian government (which they hoped only to confront with the situation as a “fait accompli”) did not only not cooperate, but flatout refused entrance to the Allies, after which the situation became hopelessly complicated and confusing. Of course, after the German invasion Norway opted for the Allies, but by then it was all over- only exile remained…
Meanwhile, the only involved country that managed to see things as they were was the country that triggered most of all of the above –Finland.
After the Russian invasion had started, the Finnish HQ calculated the war must end before april ’39. All offers and calls for assistance were thus based on this calculation. When offered assistance by a certain country, the Finns came forward with a very specific list of needed reinforcements, based on the resources and means of that country. This made it possible, along with “regular”intelligence, to check the sincerity of an offer for help.
This way, the Finns were able to quickly turn down all offers of Allied help, except for financial, economical and moral support: looking at the allied battleplans, combined with the result of diplomacy and checking what/who was actually sent to Norway, it was very obvious that the Allies only used intervention in the Winter War as a pretense to invade and occupy Norway. This way, the Finns kept their sovereignty- this proved to be vital when negotiating for peace with the USSR.
By the way, the same eye for diplomacy and “realpolitik” made it possible for Finland to:
-enter the war again in ’41, to reclaim their lost territories, but now as an ally of Germany invading the USSR,
-be formally at war with the USSR ánd the UK and France, but not with the USA,
-withdraw from the war in ’44, and keep their sovereignty and their political system (democratic!), not being occupied by the USSR,
-not be involved in the German atrocities of any kind,
-kill between 650.000 and 1 mln soldiers in the Winter War alone, losing some 45.000 men. Please notice the Russians also deployed over 1200 aircraft and more than 1500 tanks. Finland could deploy less than 100 aircraft, mostly outdated, and had 1 tank. But the Finns did have ski’s and winteruniforms, whereas the Russians (being told they were liberators, freeing the country from greedy capitalist oppressors…) did not. Luckily for us, Stalin took notice of this “white spot” in Russian dress-code…
Now, doesn’t the above not justify a very serious chain-type of events? By the way, since I do not know a great deal on Scandinavian history, if there is somebody from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland or Greenland who thinks I am talking rubbish, let us all know! Personally, I do believe theree is much more to say for a pre-war United Scandinavia than there is for a pre-war Benelux…
A series of events that starts in ’36, wherein all Scandinavian can slowly creep towards each other, becoming more dependent on each other. Of course, the attitude of the surrounding major powers is crucial: if the USSR opts for a more aggressive stance than history has proven, and Germany is aggressive too, these countries should become more and more of a bloc.
I cannot name many of the triggers for these events, but all in all I do think that the northern part of Europe is left out of the game for a little bit.
Ideas anyone? I’ll continue my research, and meanwhile keep spamming my ideas!
Have a nice weekend
King Konquer
