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This isn't looking too good. The Germans are following up and executing multiple attacks in the same area of the front. The loss of Turnu Severin was bad enough, the rapid follow-up is a big problem. We'll have to see whether this can be contained, otherwise, I fear that an organised retreat may become necessary. There is no point in wasting too much blood on battles fought in less favourable defensive terrain. If the Germans cannot be thrown back across the Danube, there will be no other good options for the Turkish Army.
Beograd looks like it will hold just fine, but Petrograd looks very hairy though, with that powerful Motorised Division on your side of the Danube, it can take full advantage of its lorries and many TDs without having to deal with a river crossing. I don't see your mostly disorganised Infantry hold them up indefinitely. The follow-up attack had to be pre-planned, the Germans must be serious.
The Turkish Air Force has shown itself to have become a formidable foe, keeping up bombing missions under attack from three Hungarian Fighter wings. I suspect your La-5s were hit so much because the Hungarian Fighters were trained to first target the bombers, except that the La-5s, being in the same formation, shielded the larger Tactical bombers from the attacks.
Love that Kelebek's Italian allies are taking control, and in such a dramatic fashion. May the Italo-Turkish Mafia destroy the hated Fascist anti-Turkish one. This 'Vito' Corleone seems to have a bright future ahead of himself, as long as he stays on the Dark Lord's good side that is...
I rejoice at the fact that, in little more than a year, domestically built IS-2s will join the ranks of the Turkish Army, I'm sure Stalin himself will be proud for his namesakes to be used to crush the Axis by the brave men of the Turkish Military.
The doctrine selection seems wise, with superior firepower is now really on track, Turkey's generals will each have more firepower to play with.
The Great Patriotic Front is looking good, and that little cheeky encirclement is sure to supply some great propaganda material, besides the very obvious benefit of taking two Divisions out of the war. However, cracks are showing in Northern Romania, and the pressure on the Danube line may be unsustainable.
We won't talk about the Far East, Pravda avoids the topic altogether, and so will I, until it becomes something more than a faraway embarrassment...
The British are doing decently well once more in Egypt, let's hope they can keep that pocket shut and reap full benefits from their own little encirclement. Fewer Italians on the Battlefield would definitely be good news for all of the Axis' enemies.
As for Winter effects. People tend to survive cold winters better on their own territory... (There doesn't seem to be a 'frozen ground' attritional effect, nor a temperature-related one. Weather effects during battles are even for all parties, but appropriate equipment will reduce these effects significantly (as well as reducing terrain-related attrition) )
The real trouble comes when the snow and Ice melts, then the supply lines are in big trouble and mobile units will have trouble moving. The party with the longer supply lines will then have the biggest problems.
I remain optimistic, though I fear for the Turkish line,
I thought maybe they're a newer model of TD than the 11th Panzer (ARM MOT TD AC), because the 11th seems to have received some damage. But going back to the previous chapter, that's not the case. The leader bonus of 16th is better than the 11th, but that should be more than compensated with the difference of CA bonus. In the end, the attack modifier is 90% vs 68% in favor of the 11th, and so is the armor bonus. Not that it's going to change anything at this point, but I'm just curious about the mechanics of the game. Does anybody have any idea why 16th is untouched while 11th is not despite being more advantageous on paper?
Interesting theories here. 16 ID (mot) is less experienced than 11 PzD, so that would fit with a more recent deployment, so possibly the TDs in 11 PzD are not up to date. I also wonder about the state of the Arm in 11 PzD. Going further on that theory... 11 PzD is very experienced (52 xp at the start of the battle), that means that the Division has probably been around for a long time, maybe from before the war. If it wasn't upgraded that could make this difference a lot worse. The only hiccup with this theory is that the Armour and Piercing Attack scores are very similar, which would imply that the two Divisions aren't that far apart in equipment, of course, there could always be an asymmetric research schedule throwing this assesment off a bit, but as this is the AI, I doubt it... Another possibility that may be at play is differential Doctrine levels, but that's also relatively subtle, considering how similar the Divisions are... If Germany's Mechanised Offensive is significantly better than it's Blitzkrieg, that would mean that Arm, Mot, TD, AC has less total organisation to begin with than Motx2, TDx2... Attrition probably also factors in over such a long battle, as 11 PzD is located in a hilly province, while 16 ID (mot) is located on plains. Attrition is worse in occupied territory, and both Divisions are quite susceptible to terrain-related attrition. IIRC Attrition is calculated each day for the province a Division is in, not the province it may be moving to or attacking into... Differential bombardment could also be a factor, but the amount of bombardment was limited, it should be noted that all things being equal, 11 PzD has less Air Defence than 16 ID (mot), as Mot is always better at Air Defence than Arm, this could compound the effects of differential bombardment. And finally, there is luck, HOI3 works with probabilities. Every game hour the game calculates the probability of losing health and org for every 'shot' that is 'fired' and then applies this to a series of RNGs (or dice-throw), so there is always a chance of getting hit, no matter how good the Division. I don't remember the exact way this is calculated and executed, but there is always an element of luck, I'm sure other people have analysed the game engine in more depth, but this is all I could come up with.
Differential bombardment could also be a factor, but the amount of bombardment was limited, it should be noted that all things being equal, 11 PzD has less Air Defence than 16 ID (mot), as Mot is always better at Air Defence than Arm, this could compound the effects of differential bombardment.
. And finally, there is luck, HOI3 works with probabilities. Every game hour the game calculates the probability of losing health and org for every 'shot' that is 'fired' and then applies this to a series of RNGs (or dice-throw), so there is always a chance of getting hit, no matter how good the Division.
I believe for a battle this long, luck would've evened out. There's always regression to the mean when you roll enough dice.
I never thought about the air angle. it's both the better air defence of the MOT bdes, and also maybe one province received more attacks than the other.
Will reply to your long and very welcome response more fully a bit later, @roverS3. But to the question of who takes casualties when, as raised by @diskoerekto : it is my experience (just from observing the org drops, as the AAR has allowed me to do in more detail than usual) that one division seems to take the brunt of the fighting despite all of them supposedly being on the ‘front line’. Others also take damage, but usually not as much, sometimes virtually not at all. You see that in defences in particular, as worn divisions are cycled out or retreated as their org drops towards zero.
It could be that it’s just a random thing, or that it often happens to the most vulnerable unit first, but I haven’t identified any real ‘science’ to it: would probably need one of the original programmers to comment to find out! But units virtually never wear out evenly from what I’ve seen, even when there is little to distinguish them in equipment, experience etc. Those factors certainly come into play when it’s bearing the brunt, but don’t seem to conclusively predict which is first in line to the meat grinder, in attack or defence.
Bottom line is we’re now left with a rampant pzgren division, which I’m hoping my two ‘hardest’ divisions might be able to stop, once they can get there. Then have their foot-mounted buddies come in from a flank to assist. Without weakening other parts of the line such that the Axis hit those instead. All good fun!
thanks for the explanation, you really had a ton of first hand experience on that during this AAR. in many games i just cruise through in high speed, your AARs are like art, slow and with attention to every detail.
Bottom line is we’re now left with a rampant pzgren division, which I’m hoping my two ‘hardest’ divisions might be able to stop, once they can get there. Then have their foot-mounted buddies come in from a flank to assist. Without weakening other parts of the line such that the Axis hit those instead. All good fun!
it might be a good idea to keep our planes hitting that pzgren at all times if possible until the hardest divisions arrive? Real good fun, I hope the dices of the game will be in our favor this time.
Will reply to your long and very welcome response more fully a bit later, @roverS3. But to the question of who takes casualties when, as raised by @diskoerekto : it is my experience (just from observing the org drops, as the AAR has allowed me to do in more detail than usual) that one division seems to take the brunt of the fighting despite all of them supposedly being on the ‘front line’. Others also take damage, but usually not as much, sometimes virtually not at all. You see that in defences in particular, as worn divisions are cycled out or retreated as their org drops towards zero.
It could be that it’s just a random thing, or that it often happens to the most vulnerable unit first, but I haven’t identified any real ‘science’ to it: would probably need one of the original programmers to comment to find out! But units virtually never wear out evenly from what I’ve seen, even when there is little to distinguish them in equipment, experience etc. Those factors certainly come into play when it’s bearing the brunt, but don’t seem to conclusively predict which is first in line to the meat grinder, in attack or defence.
You have a point for a dice roll, but these dice-rolls have variable odds. I'm wondering if there isn't some kind of snowball effect at play here, with Org having a direct impact on the odds of each dice-roll, the Division that loses the most Org on the first roll subsequently has a higher chance of losing more org on the second dice-roll etc. A few unlucky rolls would then pretty much doom a Division's ORG when compared to the others, as every bad roll directly increases the probability of taking more of the damage in the next round.
All right, I found the page on the wiki that describes land combat mechanics, a summary of the system:
Firing at the enemy
1. Each side randomly targets an enemy Division.
2. Each side will attack either the 'soft' or the 'hard' part of the enemy Division (odds depend on softness. If soft is selected, only soft attack and soft defence values are counted)
3. Both sides fire shots at each other, the number of shots depends on (hard/soft) attack values x attack effectiveness
Defence
1. Each unit has 'defence points' determined by the defence values x defence effectiveness
2. 1 Defence point is used for each shot fired at the Division. When a defence point is used the chance of a shot missing is 70%. If more shots are incoming than the Division has defence points, the remaining shots have a 48% chance of missing.µ
3. Strength loss, counted in casualties not percentages, is the amount of shots that hit multiplied by 1,5 or 3 (50/50 chance)
4. Org loss: each shot that hit equals a loss of 0,1, 0,2, or 0,3 in organisation
Armour vs Piercing: An added modifier is Armour vs AP, in this case the highest number of any brigade in the Division is counted:
If defender's Armour > Attacker's AP: The damage done to the defender is halved + extra org damage for the attacker.
Attacker's AP >= defender's Armour: No effect on combat, damage is counted in full. Land combat - Hearts of Iron 3 Wiki
This doesn't conclusively explain why one Division would be hit that much more than the others, but it does give some interesting insight on land combat dynamics.
Love that Kelebek's Italian allies are taking control, and in such a dramatic fashion. May the Italo-Turkish Mafia destroy the hated Fascist anti-Turkish one. This 'Vito' Corleone seems to have a bright future ahead of himself, as long as he stays on the Dark Lord's good side that is...
The situation in the northern part of your frontline looks really dangerous. The marshall is very disappointed that he don't have the spare troops to attack the Germans from the north. And the soviet generals nearby don't take any advises from him. Perhaps because in their eyes he is a conterrevolutionary right-wing royalist. And definitely not a loyal communist.
OK, some feedback to responses while I go through the editing of the next chapter. The game has thrown up a few shocks and surprises along the way - the next one ranks up among them! But on to comments re the last chapter.
So, the German-Soviet Front is stable but the Japanese are eating up territory quickly and those Panzers seem to be causing you some issues along your own lines.
Yes, the wider front is looking good, especially Romania given how it seemed to be heading a little while back. The panzers have been hard but manageable recently, byt the pz-gren+TD has proven a real headache! The Far East I've essentially written off (easy for me to do in Turkey, harder for our Soviet partners, but at least they've kept their focus on Europe - surprisingly well. Not expecting anything to change in the Far East until the US enters the war (whenever that might happen) and/or Japan and the Allies (with or without the US) go to war. If ever.
I thought maybe they're a newer model of TD than the 11th Panzer (ARM MOT TD AC), because the 11th seems to have received some damage. But going back to the previous chapter, that's not the case. The leader bonus of 16th is better than the 11th, but that should be more than compensated with the difference of CA bonus. In the end, the attack modifier is 90% vs 68% in favor of the 11th, and so is the armor bonus. Not that it's going to change anything at this point, but I'm just curious about the mechanics of the game. Does anybody have any idea why 16th is untouched while 11th is not despite being more advantageous on paper?
We ended up discussing this at some length below. But BLUF, I think it has more to do with which division the game (almost randomly) assigns the 'first duck in the gun sights' position to.
it seems like the new modern fighters not only fight good themselves, but keep our antiquated models safe in the air with them and let them deal some damage as well. So it's like they have more combat value than they have only themselves.
I didn't get why we didn't get to use any combat tactics in this battle. Even if the other commander's good, there are tactics like ambush or elastic defense that doesn't rely on skill difference (and ambush is the counter to breakthrough which we faced). This was a really unlucky battle.
Yes, I was thinking the same at the time. The leadership differential thing (as far as I understand it) applies to selecting the tactic that counters/negates the other's tactic. It should prevent the assignment of one's own tactics. I think it was in part just bad luck. Sometimes misery just loves company.
This reinforcement chance thing is one of the stuff about this game that makes the least sense to me. It's like they just need to walk/ride/drive until they see the HUGE river and start shooting at the other side, no rocket science needed.
It's possible, they might have withdrawn when one of the Soviet divisions reinforced rather than take that heavy 'attacked from another flank while attacking oneself' combat penalty.
Well, at least the 3rd, 5th and 18th are more or less full strength and morale. Now do they counter attack or do they dig in? By attacking they can also save Petrovac I guess?
Except for our tense battles and the blunder in far east (which I expect will be hit HARD by the siberian winter) things seem to be going for the better I guess? Maybe us drawing German attention made the recent breakthroughs and envelopments of Soviets possible?
I think both points are fair. And the latter reason was, if we think back, the reason for that initial Spring Offensive that seemed to bring all this grief on us afterwards. To that extent, it may have helped keep Romania in the war and the Soviets solid in Russia.
"Why so disturbed, my friend?" Kelebek says, occupying the seat Fanucci had just vacated.
"He...views people like toys. I am not his plaything," Vito spat.
"No," Kelebek chuckled, "I think you know exactly who you belong to."
The butterfly tattoo on Vito's neck tingled slightly as he winced. It had ben worth it, he thought. It had been worth it.
The first man sends a whisper to the shadows. He is unarmed. He is unarmoured.
The second man, the salesman, gifts a necklace to Fanucci made from rusted iron. A red butterfly.
The third man, Vito, hears and sees all this from his vantage point. From up here, it is easy to feel powerful and in control, watching the destruction of a great enemy soon to be at his hands. But in truth, he knows he is as much a cog in the machine as those two men of S.I.T.H. The true conductor and composer of this symphony is ever present, just in the corner of his eye. Watching. Waiting.
It works just as well as they had planned, as they had been told.
The air is sweeter up here, but the smog of the city stench rises upwards, and there is an undercurrent of tension that has not dissipated even with Fanucci's death. It was not he, nor the Fascists that was causing it. Nor was it Vito and his Turkish intelligence friends. As long as SI.T.H. stalks the town, the place shall never rest easy. And Vito had just them in to stay.
He would not, could not forget the shadowy hand that directed him here, that struck down the so-called 'Dark Hand' so contemptuously. He would be successful from now on. He would be rich, happy and prosperous. He would get all the respect and glory he had ever wanted, and the destruction of any enemy he wished to dispose of. All it had cost him was willingly walking into an invisible cage, and unquestionably dancing whenever a command was given.
"Possibly," Kelebek said, studying a map of the battlefield. "But perhaps not."
The president had grown numb to the Dark Lord's intrusions by this point and simply waved him towards the coffee and tobacco. "What do you mean?"
"Something has changed," Kelebek said, stirring his tea (Inönü had no idea where he had gotten it from). "The SS are touted as 'the best' in the Axis war machine but that is mostly propaganda. What is true, is that they are Hitler's attack dogs."
"Meaning...he wants to be seen as taking Turkey on personally?" Inönü frowned.
"Perhaps. Perhaps not. He could be probing us to see whether his generals are right in saying Romania is the weak link in our armour or not. Still, it is a compliment to your nation, is it not? The Führer has up till now written your resistance off as futile, a sideshow to the Russian front. Whether it is your air force strengthening, the threat of a continuing and strengthening unified front with the Russians or simply his madness...he is looking at you now."
It was a somewhat worrying thought. The Turkish defences were probably strong enough to resist a full on attack from a determined German army...but only along the Calistar line, hundreds of miles further south. If Hitler or one of his generals was preparing for a full out assault...the line would not hold.
"Figure out what they are planning," the president barked. "Plans, ideas, arguments in their war council, anything. Give us data to work with."
Kelebek rose. "As you wish, though I believe this requires a renewment of...payment."
The president's eyes and mouth tightened but to his credit his face did not change colour. Much. He nodded stiffly, not turning around to face the room until he was sure the other...thing, had left.
There could be much to the point that the UGNR has now drawn serious attention to itself.Turkey will wear this as a badge of pride ... but also hope that it doesn't land them back on their heels on the Iskandar-Calistar Lines!
Mm...yes this could be something of a turning point in the war if you either break and they pursue, or if you manage to hold and they go back to killing themselves in the north against Russia. Interesting times...
"If there is to be payment, you might as well do something about that as well." Inönü said, somewhat annoyed at the news and at Kelebek. He did blanch this time, as a ghastly, ghostly chuckle reverberated around him in response.
Well he was awfully pleased this week. And to be fair, SITH have gotten a lot out of spies these past few months. Not much more to know about how rotten life is in Manchuria or how rubbish the British are (funny though).
The Thorn seems to be quite competent - certainly better than the average goon squad Kaya has at his disposal. He has lots of tradesmen, not many artists.
Ah...this is something of a problem. But it is a victim of our own success issue, so I'm also quite pleased. It is quite an achievement to have slowed down the Germans so much in TTL!
On balance, it's a bit like the choice of being unemployed, or earning enough to have to pay considerable taxes on it. You grudge the money given up, but wouldn't want the alternative either. (I'm talking about average, honest taxpayers here - not nefarious avoiders and evaders: it's meant as an illustrative analogy, not a scientific law ).
This isn't looking too good. The Germans are following up and executing multiple attacks in the same area of the front. The loss of Turnu Severin was bad enough, the rapid follow-up is a big problem. We'll have to see whether this can be contained, otherwise, I fear that an organised retreat may become necessary. There is no point in wasting too much blood on battles fought in less favourable defensive terrain. If the Germans cannot be thrown back across the Danube, there will be no other good options for the Turkish Army.
Due to the circumstances of the battle and the unfortunate commitment of units that never reinforced and therefore had to retreat unengaged, plus the persistence of 16th Infanterie, this has proven a nastier breakthrough than the last one, which was eventually contained and thrown back across the Danube. The additional concern here is the fact it's on the theatre boundary with Romania. But Turkey has not given up yet: whether it can be stopped remains in the balance.
Beograd looks like it will hold just fine, but Petrograd looks very hairy though, with that powerful Motorised Division on your side of the Danube, it can take full advantage of its lorries and many TDs without having to deal with a river crossing. I don't see your mostly disorganised Infantry hold them up indefinitely. The follow-up attack had to be pre-planned, the Germans must be serious.
Very true, all of it. Not having left one of the (ultimately uselessly employed) fortified and full-strength divs back in Petrovac has ended up being costly. A calculated risk, but none are fool-proof.
The Turkish Air Force has shown itself to have become a formidable foe, keeping up bombing missions under attack from three Hungarian Fighter wings. I suspect your La-5s were hit so much because the Hungarian Fighters were trained to first target the bombers, except that the La-5s, being in the same formation, shielded the larger Tactical bombers from the attacks.
I think this may be true - that and having the ground attack mission (I'd originally planned to use them more as longer-range escort fighters for the soon-to-be-expanded TAC component, but the desperate situation in this battle had me throw them in before they were fully worked up and in what I suspect is a sub-optimal role). But overall, I'm pleased and surprised with how well the air force is doing at the moment. What I need now is some decent TAC hitting power. Those poor old Blenheims really aren't too much use.
Love that Kelebek's Italian allies are taking control, and in such a dramatic fashion. May the Italo-Turkish Mafia destroy the hated Fascist anti-Turkish one. This 'Vito' Corleone seems to have a bright future ahead of himself, as long as he stays on the Dark Lord's good side that is...
The Turks are being smart for once, using surrogates from the target nation to help fight the Secret War. 'Ambassador' Mike Ceylan is making good use of the profits from the now Swiss-based Turkish-owned Immobiliare.
I rejoice at the fact that, in little more than a year, domestically built IS-2s will join the ranks of the Turkish Army, I'm sure Stalin himself will be proud for his namesakes to be used to crush the Axis by the brave men of the Turkish Military.
Oh, but I'm looking forward to the initial shipment of IS-1s that almost ready to be completed. The IS-2s will be even better - though by then I might have seen Koenigstigers in the south - fight fire with fire!
That can't come too soon, either. I'm running seriously short of generals, even if a get a few more at the end of the year (deliberately haven't checked on the wikis to see how many).
The Great Patriotic Front is looking good, and that little cheeky encirclement is sure to supply some great propaganda material, besides the very obvious benefit of taking two Divisions out of the war. However, cracks are showing in Northern Romania, and the pressure on the Danube line may be unsustainable.
Let's hope the German's don't wriggle out of it. Northern Romania is a bit to-and-fro at the moment, but the Soviets seem to be supporting quite well and I'm more optimistic in general than I was a few weeks back. It's really that corridor towards Bucharest-Ploiesti and its mass of Romanian VPs that has me most worried.
The British are doing decently well once more in Egypt, let's hope they can keep that pocket shut and reap full benefits from their own little encirclement. Fewer Italians on the Battlefield would definitely be good news for all of the Axis' enemies.
I'm just happy the Italians are not poised to plunge through the Middle east - for now. And I hope the British and Iraqis aren't too thinly deployed and let the Italians in the pocket escape.
As for Winter effects. People tend to survive cold winters better on their own territory... (There doesn't seem to be a 'frozen ground' attritional effect, nor a temperature-related one. Weather effects during battles are even for all parties, but appropriate equipment will reduce these effects significantly (as well as reducing terrain-related attrition) )
The real trouble comes when the snow and Ice melts, then the supply lines are in big trouble and mobile units will have trouble moving. The party with the longer supply lines will then have the biggest problems.
And while tactically these things will affect both sides evenly (especially as the Soviet defence looks like being too successful to draw the Germans far enough into the interior to trigger General Winter), strategically I believe it favours the Comintern, which will grow more strongly with time compared to the hopefully resource-starved European Axis powers.
Interesting theories here. 16 ID (mot) is less experienced than 11 PzD, so that would fit with a more recent deployment, so possibly the TDs in 11 PzD are not up to date. I also wonder about the state of the Arm in 11 PzD. Going further on that theory... 11 PzD is very experienced (52 xp at the start of the battle), that means that the Division has probably been around for a long time, maybe from before the war. If it wasn't upgraded that could make this difference a lot worse. The only hiccup with this theory is that the Armour and Piercing Attack scores are very similar, which would imply that the two Divisions aren't that far apart in equipment, of course, there could always be an asymmetric research schedule throwing this assesment off a bit, but as this is the AI, I doubt it... Another possibility that may be at play is differential Doctrine levels, but that's also relatively subtle, considering how similar the Divisions are... If Germany's Mechanised Offensive is significantly better than it's Blitzkrieg, that would mean that Arm, Mot, TD, AC has less total organisation to begin with than Motx2, TDx2... Attrition probably also factors in over such a long battle, as 11 PzD is located in a hilly province, while 16 ID (mot) is located on plains. Attrition is worse in occupied territory, and both Divisions are quite susceptible to terrain-related attrition. IIRC Attrition is calculated each day for the province a Division is in, not the province it may be moving to or attacking into... Differential bombardment could also be a factor, but the amount of bombardment was limited, it should be noted that all things being equal, 11 PzD has less Air Defence than 16 ID (mot), as Mot is always better at Air Defence than Arm, this could compound the effects of differential bombardment. And finally, there is luck, HOI3 works with probabilities. Every game hour the game calculates the probability of losing health and org for every 'shot' that is 'fired' and then applies this to a series of RNGs (or dice-throw), so there is always a chance of getting hit, no matter how good the Division. I don't remember the exact way this is calculated and executed, but there is always an element of luck, I'm sure other people have analysed the game engine in more depth, but this is all I could come up with.
I believe for a battle this long, luck would've evened out. There's always regression to the mean when you roll enough dice.
I never thought about the air angle. it's both the better air defence of the MOT bdes, and also maybe one province received more attacks than the other.
thanks for the explanation, you really had a ton of first hand experience on that during this AAR. in many games i just cruise through in high speed, your AARs are like art, slow and with attention to every detail.
it might be a good idea to keep our planes hitting that pzgren at all times if possible until the hardest divisions arrive? Real good fun, I hope the dices of the game will be in our favor this time.
You have a point for a dice roll, but these dice-rolls have variable odds. I'm wondering if there isn't some kind of snowball effect at play here, with Org having a direct impact on the odds of each dice-roll, the Division that loses the most Org on the first roll subsequently has a higher chance of losing more org on the second dice-roll etc. A few unlucky rolls would then pretty much doom a Division's ORG when compared to the others, as every bad roll directly increases the probability of taking more of the damage in the next round.
All right, I found the page on the wiki that describes land combat mechanics, a summary of the system:
Firing at the enemy
1. Each side randomly targets an enemy Division.
2. Each side will attack either the 'soft' or the 'hard' part of the enemy Division (odds depend on softness. If soft is selected, only soft attack and soft defence values are counted)
3. Both sides fire shots at each other, the number of shots depends on (hard/soft) attack values x attack effectiveness
Defence
1. Each unit has 'defence points' determined by the defence values x defence effectiveness
2. 1 Defence point is used for each shot fired at the Division. When a defence point is used the chance of a shot missing is 70%. If more shots are incoming than the Division has defence points, the remaining shots have a 48% chance of missing.µ
3. Strength loss, counted in casualties not percentages, is the amount of shots that hit multiplied by 1,5 or 3 (50/50 chance)
4. Org loss: each shot that hit equals a loss of 0,1, 0,2, or 0,3 in organisation
Armour vs Piercing: An added modifier is Armour vs AP, in this case the highest number of any brigade in the Division is counted:
If defender's Armour > Attacker's AP: The damage done to the defender is halved + extra org damage for the attacker.
Attacker's AP >= defender's Armour: No effect on combat, damage is counted in full. Land combat - Hearts of Iron 3 Wiki
This doesn't conclusively explain why one Division would be hit that much more than the others, but it does give some interesting insight on land combat dynamics.
In a nutshell, I think the conclusion was that weather will affect both sides evenly, unless one has winter equipment and the other doesn't. And that there will be no specific malus on the Germans for winter in Russia and that the Soviets will likely not get general Winter bonuses because their success has been too solid. Not a bad thing though on balance. It means they haven't suffered the horrendous losses of a disastrous first six months of encirclements and long retreats.
The situation in the northern part of your frontline looks really dangerous. The marshall is very disappointed that he don't have the spare troops to attack the Germans from the north. And the soviet generals nearby don't take any advises from him. Perhaps because in their eyes he is a conterrevolutionary right-wing royalist. And definitely not a loyal communist.
All that could well be true! The situation at the front is dangerous, but the Turks don't plan to go down without a hard fight. And in this (artificial HOI3 system- as well and alternate history-based reality) the Comintern is more a flag of convenience for wartime cooperation than an ideological banner. I make passing attempts to rationalise this in a narrative sense, but none of it bears too close a political or philosophical analysis.
---xxx---
Thanks for that very comprehensive and incisive set of comments! The next little period, as mentioned above, is played through and screenshot. Just need to write up now. If not tonight, then tomorrow my time. There will be plenty to discuss as a result, too!
The Turks are being smart for once, using surrogates from the target nation to help fight the Secret War. 'Ambassador' Mike Ceylan is making good use of the profits from the now Swiss-based Turkish-owned Immobiliare.
Also using the powers of authorial intent and offscreen competence were good ideas. Turns out Turkey is far more powerful when they aren't confined by the limitations of Swedish video games.
In a nutshell, I think the conclusion was that weather will affect both sides evenly, unless one has winter equipment and the other doesn't. And that there will be no specific malus on the Germans for winter in Russia and that the Soviets will likely not get general Winter bonuses because their success has been too solid. Not a bad thing though on balance. It means they haven't suffered the horrendous losses of a disastrous first six months of encirclements and long retreats.
Alright, so no magic stat boost for mother russia yet. They'll have to earn their victories properly. Oh well, at least the war in europe is going horribly for the Axis as well. In fact, the only power who isn't having a terrible war is japan, and they may well end exhuasting thensevles trying to absorb all of russia from west to east. That and placing literally their entire military months march away from their own homelands.
If GB or US wanted to kick them where it hurts through India or the Pacific, Japan is fucked. Not that it's likely to happen but notable how even the most successful war participant thus far could be undone quite easily.
This is basically his holiday time where he gets to role play being a cliche storm of a demonic gangster lord from a Eastwood film.
Also using the powers of authorial intent and offscreen competence were good ideas. Turns out Turkey is far more powerful when they aren't confined by the limitations of Swedish video games.
Alright, so no magic stat boost for mother russia yet. They'll have to earn their victories properly. Oh well, at least the war in europe is going horribly for the Axis as well. In fact, the only power who isn't having a terrible war is japan, and they may well end exhuasting thensevles trying to absorb all of russia from west to east. That and placing literally their entire military months march away from their own homelands.
If GB or US wanted to kick them where it hurts through India or the Pacific, Japan is fucked. Not that it's likely to happen but notable how even the most successful war participant thus far could be undone quite easily.
Chapter 151: Reckless Adventurism (1 to 4 November 1941)
Some interesting happenings in the first few days of November, so this update covers a shorter period, with a bit of 'special focus' in the second half. All will soon be revealed, read on, dear readAAR ...
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1 Nov 41
The day began with good news contained in the Milli Şef’s despatch box from Prime Minister Celal Bayar. Turkey’s research capacity may be modest but that means that every advance is treasured. With the key Infantry Warfare doctrine now up to date, the resilience of Turkish units and their capacity to take punishment is now at world standard. The much-delayed research into Lightning War (the UGNR doctrine folk prefer not to use the German term themselves) will once again be resumed, given the increasingly important role of armoured and TD brigades in the current and future Turkish Army.
The Battle of Beograd remains well in hand. Despite the reckless assault of the SS Nazi fanatics, as of midnight Orbay, commander of the Mighty First Division, remains confident of holding. The same can’t be said of Petrovac, unfortunately.
As Inönü rises early and completes his morning routine, an orderly appears with an urgent dispatch from the Command Post.
“What is it this time!?” he says, just a little irascibly after a night of fitful sleep.
“Ah, My General, I really don’t know,” replied the orderly uncomfortably.
“No, I’m sorry sergeant, of course you don’t. Thank you, I will read this now – you can advise the Duty Officer I will be at the CP in a few minutes. You may go.”
The orderly salutes crisply and leaves - quickly!
Inönü opens the sealed envelope – and is genuinely surprised by its contents.
What!? he exclaims to himself. Where the hell did they come from? And what the hell do they think they’re going to do there? These reckless fools are certainly keeping us on the hop - but what will this gain them in the long run? Paratroops marooned, unsupported and unsupplied, on a Mediterranean island!
No one at the CP has any better idea. For now, Inönü’s first impulse is to ignore them. It would not be worth diverting the first-line infantry units or aircraft required to deal with this unexpected landing.
“The Axis does seem to have become suddenly interested in the Eastern Med, though,” he remarks rhetorically, to no one in particular.
Of more immediate importance is the deteriorating situation in Petrovac, where the Germans are seeking to widen their bridgehead over the Danube. With the units from Turnu Severin not yet having completed their retreats, Petrovac is now also on the brink of collapsing, with the nearest mechanised relief force (1 Mot Div) still two provinces to the west. 4 Inf Div had retreated from Petrovac the day before; now the veteran 3 Inf Div was on the verge of breaking with the (leaderless and green) 19 Inf Div not far behind.
3 Cav Div was the first evacuee to arrive in Zajecar from Turnu Severin, at midday. But they were without fuel and must wait before they could move again. Apart from that, after their recent experience, trying to reinforce a losing battle would not be wise anyway.
By 3pm, 3 Inf Div was almost at the end of its tether [1.5 org] and 19 Inf Div not that much better. It was decided to bring them both out of Petrovac simultaneously, before they broke and while they could still be directed to the reserve position of Cuprija. Another loss, but certainly not as expensive as in Turnu Severin.
At that time, 1 TAK was still performing a bombing run over Turnu Severin. They were able to provide a detailed assessment of the strength of the German 16th Infanterie as at 6pm that evening. They had suffered some light damage but seemed fully organised and ready for battle. The mountain division holding Turnu Severin was in far worse shape, still badly cut up from their previous battle to take the province.
At 9pm, the logistics staff reported that 3 Cav Div was still without adequate fuel supplies and therefore unready to take part in any prospective counter-attack to retake Petrovac. At the same time, news arrived that the devastated 4 Inf Div had arrived in Zajecar. They would be unfit for combat for a long time after defeats in both Turnu Severin and then Petrovac. 1 Mot Div was by then in Velico Gradiste and en route to Petrovac. And the enemy 16th Division had already occupied it!
“One this is One Mike, contact in Petrovac! German infantry and tank destroyer battalions working in cooperation. But they are not dug in – we are going to hit them hard and play them at their own ‘blitzing’ game! Wish us luck – vur ha!”
“One Mike this is One, roger. Good hunting – out!”
A blitz attack on von Both and the German panzer grenadiers – how delicious! Great work, Kanatli! Die, you Nazi vermin! Also, both side’s piercing attack overmatches the other’s armour rating. Of course, the attacking % will improve drastically at daybreak.
On their way back from their last raid on Turnu Severin, 1 TAK flies over Petrovac at 10pm on their way back to their airbase in Beograd – and drops some unused bombs on 16th Infanterie in Petrovac while they are at it! Way to go, boys!
Air Report. 1 TAK had been busy all day, but their four uncontested raids on Turnu Severin had only killed 97 German soldiers. Better than nothing, but hardly enough to turn the tide of battle.
News Report: Berlin, Germany. A formal statement from Adolf Hitler claimed that the United States "has attacked Germany" and that Roosevelt had been placed before the "tribunal" for world judgment. Germany disputed the American account of the sinking of the Reuben James and claimed that a German submarine only attacked after American destroyers attacked German submarines first.[Comment: perhaps a little unwise of Hitler to be jabbing the sleeping giant like that, but that is his demagogic way.]
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2 Nov 41
The day once again began with some welcome news: the SS-Verf Division had broken off its attack on Beograd – they had been bearing the brunt of casualties while attacking over the Danube and had clearly had enough of a losing battle. With no additional Axis reinforcements in sight, it was now up to the ‘Leibstandarte’ Division (LSAH) to keep pressing the attack over open ground from Valjevo.
Over near Petrovac, 1 Mot Div continued to press its own attack. 1 Cav Div was now in Arandelovac, on its way to Petrovac via Cuprija. 3 Cav Div had just managed to get enough fuel to be on its way and would add its weight to the attack on Petrovac from the southern flank.
Even as it completed its ‘opportunity fly-by raid’ on Petrovac at 1 am, 1 TAK's orders were formally amended to concentrate on continuing to hit the 16th Division there around the clock. 1 AF was at 98.6% strength and 3 AF at 93.6% at that time – they were ordered to continue to stand by to intercept enemy fighters over Petrovac. 2 AF was more disorganised and joined 4 AG in rest and repair at Beograd.
3 Cav Div soon joined the battle in Petrovac – once more in reserve and hoping to get to the front after their frustrations in Turnu Severin. This improved the odds for the battle, which were now notionally positive [60%] for the first time. The Turkish blitz attack continued.
5 and 18 Inf Divs rolled into Zajecar at 5am. The crack 5 Inf Div was fresh and led by the well-regarded MAJGEN Namut; 18 Inf Div is raw, leaderless and not yet worked up to 50% of their initial combat efficiency, though their strength is at 100% - not having actually been in combat yet. But both are grounded for now, waiting for resupply after their galling retreat from Turnu Severin.
Five hours later, the badly shot-up and disorganised 14 Inf Div – which had born the last brunt of fighting alone in Turnu Severin – limped into Jiana, just across the border in Romania. They provided a paper-thin screen there to any further Axis advance to the south-east – where Bucharest lay. However, the gap due south from Petrovac was wide open: a risk was being taken by not trying to cover it. Petrovac must be won back, or the whole Danube Line was compromised anyway. It looked like the Soviets might be responding to the request to defend Jiana, with 94 SD approaching from the south-west. 14 Inf Div would be evacuated to recover in the Glorious Union as soon as one of Turkey’s partners arrived.
As 1 Mot Div kept their blitz up on 16th Infanterie, by midday the German division finally started to show signs of casualties and disorganisation [strength at 90.6%, organisation something similar].
In Beograd, Orbay had finally repulsed the reckless assault the SS had opened their attack with. The early afternoon saw the German fanatics go over to a more conventional assault, while the Turkish and Soviet (EF) defenders employed an elastic defence. The toll on the remaining German LSAH Division was mounting: they were showing clear signs of disorganisation and were beginning to take some substantive casualties (losses estimated as approaching 9-10% of their total strength).
An hour later, 4 Cav Div (rarely seen so far during the Great Patriotic War), de-trained in Istanbul. They were equipped with a brigade of the old Spanish light tanks first procured almost five years before (dwarfed by the massive IS-2s now on order). Initially summoned after the attempted Italian naval landing near Athens, they were now on watch after the surprise German paratrooper landing on Mytiléné.
At the same time, the Soviets reported they had once again lost Herceg Novi. Meanwhile, the formerly large Soviet presence in the screening mountain provinces in the south had now been largely stripped back, although some divisions seemed to be returning from the north. Perhaps it was a belated response to this latest loss.
The day wore on into night, with no other significant changes or developments on the battlefield.
Air Report. 1 TAK conducted another four raids during the day, this time on Petrovac in support of 1 Mot Div’s attack, killing a total of 171 enemy. Much better than the previous day’s figures.
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3 Nov 41
In Beograd, shortly after midnight it was clear the SS attack was failing [7% odds, LSAH Div down to about 50% org, only minor damage on the lead defending unit, the tough and experienced 1 Inf Div]. But the day began with a setback for 1 Mot Div: they could no longer sustain their initial blitz attack, reverting to a simple frontal attack. To which the wily von Both responded with a counter-attack, nullifying any Turkish tactical benefit [although in this case that element was only the 5% bonus of an ordinary attack]. But 16th Infanterie was showing visible signs of wear now.
In better news, the first of the Soviet trained and equipped engineer brigades finished basic training. They were deployed to HQ 5th ‘Comintern’ Corps in Cuprija, where they would be held until they could be sent into frontline divisions once the Turkish Army had mastered Superior Firepower doctrine. Inönü was also reminded of the lack of permanent corps commanders assigned to the 4th and 5th Corps HQs. He determined to remedy this soon but didn’t want to strip commanders from defensive positions or units that could prove critical to the defence. He would think on it and decide new dispositions by the end of the day.
Then, also at midnight, came news that supplies had finally made it to 5 Inf Div in Zajecar: they were immediately ordered to Petrovac to reinforce the attack. They did that just an hour later: and that intervention was enough to send the Germans packing! Rather than wait to be further outnumbered, 16th Infanterie must have decided they were too exposed and began retreating north back over the Danube, rather than to Turnu Severin. Even better!
The Turks were determined to make the most of this: 1 Cav Div was told to maintain course for Petrovac, where it was hoped they could roll straight on to attack the weakened German 1st Gerbirgsjäger in Turnu Severin while 1 Mot Div took some days to reorganise after their attack [due to my still-primitive doctrine].
Victory. Vur ha!
At 2am, 5 Inf Div was told to keep moving to Petrovac to strengthen its defences and re-establish the fortified position they had abandoned to try to reinforce Turnu Severin at the end of October: the full circle would be completed. But 3 Cav Div was halted in Zajevac: they would prepare for the planned counter-attack to regain Turnu Severin. 1 TAK (in the middle of a night raid on Petrovac as the Germans withdrew) and its escorts - 1 and 3 AFs – were stood down from any further missions for now, to rest and repair for future activity: whether to support the planned attack or counter any new offensive the Axis may generate elsewhere.
With the position in Petrovac restored, 4 Inf Div was sent over to complete its rebuilding at the front, in Pozarevac, where the previous hasty departure of 1 Mot Div had left the line a little thin. It would take them a long time to regain organisation, but at least they could entrench – in what was hoped would be a quiet sector for now, but which could come under attack again at any moment. Especially with more German units massing to its north. Recent casualties had thinned general troop levels on the Danube Line – it would take time to reconstitute the reserves and organisation in many of the formations.
For once, the Milli Şef received good news with his breakfast: 1 Mot Div had secured Petrovac by 6am. But it would take over four days for them to be ready to attack again! 3 Cav Div was in position to attack Turnu Severin but were considered too lightly armed to perform the task alone.
At midday, the command net crackled into life. It was Orbay’s HQ in Beograd.
“One this is One India, sitrep, over.”
“One; send, over.”
“One India; we estimate enemy has suffered 15% casualties and their attack is now thoroughly disorganised. We believe they are on the point of abandoning it, despite the actions of die-hards attempting a final shock attack, over.”
“This is One, roger. From Sunray: good work, report when the battle is decided. Out.”
The LSAH Division is now suffering heavily, with odds of their success now almost non-existent [5%]. Surely the SS goons cannot keep this going much longer? But they would for the rest of the day. Persistent bastards!
At 2pm, both 3 and 19 Inf Divs finish their earlier withdrawal from Petrovac and begin recuperating in reserve at Cuprija. Although battle-weary, they were somewhat consoled by the fact their defensive effort in Petrovac under terrible conditions delayed the enemy long enough for a successful counter-attack to be conducted.
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That evening, during a somewhat quiet period on the front, Inönü sat down to dinner with a select group of his staff officers at his HQ in Sofiya. As he was about to start his main course, a messenger from his government advisers’ detachment came into the room. It was the Foreign Office LO.
“My apologies, Milli Şef, but this urgent, crash priority cable has just come through directly from Foreign Minister Aras. It is not classified, but he wanted you to know before it became more general news.”
Inönü was somewhat mystified – what could the Foreign Minister have to pass on that was so urgent?
“So be it – let me have a look.”
“Oha!” the President exclaimed excitedly. This will change everything – for the better, he thought to himself.
“Sir, there is more.” The courier hands over another cable.
Comment: That’s right – the US have joined the Comintern! I was completely not expecting that and until just this last session had no idea the US were even about to enter the war (or be forced into it). Though of course, we all knew we were approaching the historical time for it.
I would love to say this was all part of the master plan, that I was hoping for it to happen. But I didn’t even realise it was possible that the US would join the Comintern, assuming their total alignment with the Allies would preclude it.
But working backwards, I think I know what’s happened – mainly due to the built-in game mechanics. You will get the gist of this in the following piece of narrative license I’ve taken to put this in alternate historical context. And try to lend a faint impression of plausibility to this event.
For this, I ask you to suspend your disbelief a little and imagine an alternate world that is not our own and the circumstances that have led to this due to the 'sliding door of history' I’ve opened. But it’s pretty amazing and rather exciting, don’t you think? And a game that already diverged sharply from OTL has now gone even further into the whackiverse. Though in a way that also strangely parallels some of OTL history – to this point anyway.
But I'm now rather pleased with the gamble of joining the Comintern and dragging the Soviets into the war: I'm not the only one who reckons it's worth getting with the strength, regardless of ideological differences. Looking forward to the forthcoming anti-Fascist leader meetings and ganging up with Stalin and Roosevelt on the poor old British.
I’m sure we’ll discuss this during the comment and response phase.
“Haydi canım? Yok artık?” [Got this from the dreaded Interweb. @diskoerekto, I hope this translates somewhat correctly as an exclamation of disbelieving amazement.]
The Foreign Office LO breaks into a broad grin. “Yes, it really has happened, Milli Şef. We received advance word from the Kremlin and Agent SkitalecS3 has confirmed. There was an urgent exchange of cables between President Roosevelt and Comrade Stalin, including a second-hand account from Roosevelt on his discussions with Churchill. I’m informed that President Roosevelt will be making an address to an emergency sitting of Congress shortly.”
“The reckless adventurism of these Axis louts knows no bounds! Japan declaring war on the US while deeply involved attacking the Soviet Union. Then Germany leaping in to reciprocate the declaration – although I suppose they owed the Japanese that after they supported Hitler against the Soviets." The President is delighted but still slightly disbelieving. This diplomatic earthquake will have its reverberations for days, months and years to come.
Here follows a transcript of Roosevelt’s speech to Congress of 3 November 1941:
“Today, November 3rd, 1941 - a date which will live in world history - the Empire of Japan suddenly declared war on the United States of America.
The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.
During the intervening time, the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
Simultaneously with the declaration of war by Japan, its Axis cronies also declared war on this country - clear evidence of a premeditated conspiracy.
The facts of today speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation.
As Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense. But always will our whole nation remember the character of the onslaught against us.
Mr Churchill, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, while affirming the special relationship between our two countries, has advised me that the Allies remain at peace with the Empire of Japan and, as we are not a member of that Alliance, its mutual defense clauses do not apply in this situation. We will, however, continue to support the Allies with materiel and share the fight with the rest of the Axis pact.
I have also spoken with General Secretary Josef Stalin of the Soviet Union, the leader of the Comintern Pact currently at war with Japan. He made an offer of formal alliance and we have mutually agreed that the United States should join the Comintern Pact immediately, allying ourselves with the Union of Glorious National Republics, Romania and the other Comintern partners.
No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory.
I believe that I interpret the will of the Congress and of the people when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost, but will make it very certain that this form of treachery shall never again endanger us.
Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory, and our interests are in grave danger.
With confidence in our armed forces, with the unbounding determination of our people, we will gain the inevitable triumph - so help us God.
I ask that the Congress declare that since the unprovoked and dastardly attack by Japan and its Axis allies on Monday, November 3rd, 1941, a state of war has existed between the United States and the Japanese Empire, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Ethiopia, Manchukuo, Mengkukuo and Siam.
I also ask that Congress ratify our new alliance with the Comintern.”
Both these resolutions were passed by a massive majority, although there were some abstentions regarding the proposed Comintern alliance.
Note, this is a modified version of the real thing. The term ‘a date which will live in world history’ was the original typewritten text of the speech, which was later edited by hand and delivered as ‘a date which will live in infamy’. But given in this ATL there was a Japanese declaration of war without any apparent 'dastardly' attack, I thought the first draft expression was actually more applicable in these circumstances.
And I’m deliberately waving the alternate historian’s magic wand over the Comintern joining: it doesn’t bear too much close scrutiny within the narrative, but I’m sure will be debated healthily in general discussion!
“A date which will live in world history”: President Franklin D. Roosevelt addresses Congress on the evening 3 November 1941. Japan had declared war on the US that morning (Washington DC time).
Soon after finishing a dinner now held in a mood of restrained festivity, Inönü was briefed by a number of his government departmental liaison officers from the Presidential Office attached to his HQ in Sofiya. The first came from his War (Armament) Department, where he also doubled up as the Minister in charge.
“Milli Şef, our Deputy Minister has held quick discussions with the US Ambassador and Defence Attaché in Ankara. They have confirmed that as a result of them joining the Comintern, the full inventory of US designed export-approved military equipment and training support is now available to us under license, should we wish to avail ourselves of their foreign military sales program. Just as an example, we could if we wished buy their new Sherman medium tanks. But their aircraft could be of interest and, if we want to develop it at any point, their naval inventory is first rate and far more extensive than the Soviet Union’s.”
“Excellent news, Ahmet! We won’t buy anything new right now, but some room will soon be available in our production queue and we will review the respective options between our two great allies then. It’s always nice to have choice and be able to buy the best available in each category.”
The next briefing is the LO from the Supreme HQ, where they have hastily put together an estimate of relative forces in the new, broader Comintern Pact.
The US Army is at this stage relatively the weakest of the three arms. They have only 13 more brigades in total than Turkey controls [though that will include the three Soviet divisional EFs]; they have no armour and few specialist brigades. They are strong in Marines [logically but ahistorically included under the Army in HOI3], have six each of parachute and ranger brigades, but of their 123 ‘foot soldier’ brigades, 42 are garrison units. The US Navy is immensely strong and will be an enormous boost to Comintern sea power. Their ‘Air Force’ [again, per HOI3 standardisation, all aircraft are combined in one service rather than falling under the Army or Navy] is of fair strength but comparatively small, with a large maritime component of 14 CAGs out of 31 wings in total. They also boast two strategic bomber wings – the only ones in the Comintern.
The LO continues with a quick report on general US military dispositions as currently known.
“General, the vast majority of US Army units are based in the mainland USA. Of interest in the Pacific – where their island outposts are the most exposed initially to the Japanese threat – we have accurate reports on dispositions in three key island strongholds. We must wait until after midnight for reports on naval dispositions – we only have land unit locations at present.”
Note: interestingly, on entry US Army units became visible immediately, but the rest only after midnight ticked over. A little game system foible, but not completely unrealistic either. In RL, it would take time for such liaison and information sharing to be set up – certainly more than the five hours from 1900 until midnight in-game!
Finally, the Foreign Office adviser – the same man who’d had the privilege of delivering the news of America’s entry into the war to the President at dinner that evening – came in with a supplementary report.
“My President, a quick analysis of the Comintern’s agreed victory objectives for the war against the Fascist peril shows that the US’s entry will, for our pact, probably have the most effect in the Pacific. Not only might their incremental expected build-up there start to take some pressure off our Soviet allies in the Far East, but in the longer term it should make some of the other victory objectives there easier to achieve. And we can soon send objective requests to our American allies for locations anywhere around the world, as ‘polite suggestions’.” [NB allied objective setting is another thing that didn’t trigger until after midnight of the day of the DoW.]
“Many thanks, Omer,” replied a thoughtful Inönü. “This also means the long-term potential power of the British-led Western Allies will be significantly diminished, although they will still benefit from substantive lend-lease support, no doubt. And also either not having to fight the Japanese themselves, or doing so only after the Eastern Fascists are already at war with the USSR and US. Plus the fact Germany has been well checked in eastern Europe.”
“We are in for an interesting voyage through uncharted waters, My President. I will return shortly after midnight with recommendations for new war goals against the key Axis members – which haven’t been reviewed for some time.”
“And I will come back with an initial impression of US Navy dispositions and suggested operational objectives for our new American partners at that time as well, General,” says the Supreme HQ LO.
“Thank you all, gentlemen. I look forward avidly to the midnight briefing,” says Inönü, before turning to his HQ 1st Army chief of staff. “I will also have appointment orders to raise two new corps commanders from among our current divisional commanders. We must be careful to leave at least one general in each defensive position, even if it means stripping two front line commanders from their divisions. I want two good generals, but remain keen to leave our best commanders in front-line combat divisions where possible. So Namut will stay where he is for now.”
“Of course General, we will await your guidance then.”
The meeting broke up, to reassemble after midnight.
Air Report. A last early-morning Turkish air raid on Petrovac before its liberation killed just 14 German panzer-grenadiers.
News Report: London, UK. In London, following these events, PM Churchill was asked for comment. Clearly perplexed but ultimately philosophical about these developments, he offered the following: "I cannot forecast to you the action of America. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is American national interest."
OTL: Eastern Front. The Germans captured Kursk.
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4 Nov 41
We will only delve into the first hour of 4 November in this chapter, but I had to let the clock tick over to get access to US naval dispositions and objective setting.
Omer from the Foreign Office kicks off the supplementary briefing session in the early hours of the day after the big night before.
“My President, here are the recommendations for adding to our existing national war goals against the Axis powers. First, we start with Japan: we already seek to force them to join the Comintern and to have them as a puppet government, to better take advantage of any residual military forces they may command when they surrender. Minister Aras thought we could add a claim on French Indo-China, to potentially give us a base in South East Asia in the New Comintern World Order. Similarly, with Germany the Foreign Minister suggests adding another region to expand the Glorious Union in central Europe.”
“Agreed, Omer. What is next?”
“For Italy, we are now suggesting a bold approach. Initially, we have claimed two regions already as part of a post-war settlement. We are now suggesting a full conquest of Italy, to incorporate it entirely into the Glorious Union if it can be managed. Everyone agrees that we ‘owe them’ and it would sting badly if we were to recreate much of the old Roman Empire - except from east to west.”
“Oh, I like that Omer, very definitely. I see there is nothing more suggested for Hungary?”
“That is right, My President. We already have a conquest claim on them and a regional one should that not be possible – we’re not sure what the Soviets may want in that regard, or indeed for any of these provisional claims. There’s nothing more to put on the table there. We did not bother with the rest of the Axis minors, though they can always be further reviewed in the future.”
“All very good, my compliments to Minister Aras. So, what operational objectives does Supreme HQ recommend?”
“General, we thought we would start with two in our immediate region and just leave the Pacific to the Americans to sort out for now. It will be some time before they are ready for any offensive operations there anyway. They can fight their own war – we need only step in if you determine there is a need to make some ‘fraternal suggestions’ if they seem to be botching their defence or too timid in offence when the time comes.”
“That makes sense. So what do you have for us in our theatre of operations?”
“These two, General. One as a convenient port for the provision of expeditionary forces for the Balkans (whether under their or our command). And the other, we thought we might see if they could one day deal with our ‘Mytiléné Problem’ with those German paratroopers, given the American's great naval strength and strong marine arm. But for now, we’re expecting them to concentrate on the Pacific and the Atlantic against Japan and Germany respectively. Anything thrown our way would be a welcome but unexpected bonus.”
“That makes sense to me to start with. I will take advice on longer-term approaches and any major new license acquisitions at a future Cabinet Meeting.”
“One last thing from Supreme HQ, General. They report that the Americans only have three sub flotillas based in Honolulu and no capital ships or carriers at sea in the Pacific at the moment. The bulk of their fleet is in port on the mainland or at sea in the Atlantic.”
“Thank you all,” says Inönü, turning finally to his HQ 1st Army staff. “I have decided to promote Özalp from 11 Division to command 4th Corps. That leaves Muzir in Podgorica to command any defence there.”
“And Eldelhun performed well during recent operations in command of 12 Inf Div, which took him to a new level [Sk3] of ability – he will command 5th ‘Comintern’ Corps.”
“That is it, gentlemen. It’s been a long day – I suggest we all try to grab a few hours of sleep! Dismissed.”
The two new Lieutenant Generals were quickly advised of their promotions and were soon making their presence felt in their respective Corps HQs.
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Coming Up: After a momentous day in world history and a sudden and unexpected boost to Comintern stocks, what will the immediate and long-term future hold? Will the Soviets finally find some relief in the Far East? How long will it take the US to begin to really arm itself and start pulling their weight as a world power? Will the Danube Line now be stabilised and Turnu Severin retaken before the Germans can exploit what is left of their initial breakthrough? Or will the Axis now strike elsewhere on the Yeniceri-Danube Line where it had to be thinned to repair the gap in the east?
In the Secret War, Cennet has met with her new underworld partner in Naples, but the report is not yet to hand: will November see both the ‘conventional’ (espionage) and black (S.I.T.H. ‘wet ops’) war erupt in Italy? Or will Ögel still need a little more time to build up his reserve spy teams in case of the anticipated casualties? And the momentous events of 3 November may overshadow petty political manoeuvrings for a while, but what will Aras do next in his crafty and undeclared plotting and how will Kaya respond to his recent bewildering misadventure? And, in far off Honolulu, how will BJ Guildenstern react to the outbreak of war with Japan: his idyllic retirement retreat overlooking Waikiki is now a prime target for Japanese aggression. Will he flee or fight?
"...."WE'RE GOING IN, LADS!" The brave Turkish freedom fighters are experiencing a new age of hope now that the might of America is behind their cause. Fighting continues to be bloody across the "Patriotic Front", but the Turks see light at the end of the tunnel."
(Can't rightly use the term "Red Turks" anymore, considering... well, you know.
The Germans have figured out how to properly use their airborne and the Americans have become Red? Well....this is truly a weird war. Where are the laser guns and werewolves?
"...."WE'RE GOING IN, LADS!" The brave Turkish freedom fighters are experiencing a new age of hope now that the might of America is behind their cause. Fighting continues to be bloody across the "Patriotic Front", but the Turks see light at the end of the tunnel."
(Can't rightly use the term "Red Turks" anymore, considering... well, you know.
Nice: with the two next-gen superpowers on our side, how can we lose!? More easily than one suspects, as most of that war effort is up to AI-run governments. But things are definitely looking a lot better than they were a day ago. And as the US war industry ramps up, we might get some more lend-lease, too.
The Germans have figured out how to properly use their airborne and the Americans have become Red? Well....this is truly a weird war. Where are the laser guns and werewolves?
I know, even if it was onto a dead-end island, them actually getting an airdrop together and executing it!? Wonders will never cease. We may not have laser guns or werewolves, but we do have S.I.T.H. and the Red Butterfly!
The much-delayed research into Lightning War (the UGNR doctrine folk prefer not to use the German term themselves) will once again be resumed, given the increasingly important role of armoured and TD brigades in the current and future Turkish Army.
One of the underappreciated thus far aspects of this AAR that's fascinating to see is the transition by a burgeoning minor-major power from WWI-style foot soldier armies to mobile and armored warfare tactics in slightly-faster-than-real-time.
With the units from Turnu Severin not yet having completed their retreats, Petrovac is now also on the brink of collapsing, with the nearest mechanised relief force (1 Mot Div) still two provinces to the west.
I wonder what our military leadership's thought have been on using pinning attacks when battles like this are lost, to hold attackers from advancing until new defenders can be brought into place? Risky, given that such an attack weakens our line elsewhere, but an option nevertheless.
8 Inf Div is raw, leaderless and not yet worked up to 50% of their initial combat efficiency, though their strength is at 100% - not having actually been in combat yet.
I'm starting to worry about all of these leaderless divisions in our OOB. Might it be worth taking some of those skilled corps or army leaders and having them command divisions to ensure that all of our men gain the full set of available modifiers in combat? Leader skill can make a pretty big difference in the outcomes of some of these very hard-fought battles.
An hour later, 4 Cav Div (rarely seen so far during the Great Patriotic War), de-trained in Istanbul. They were equipped with a brigade of the old Spanish light tanks first procured almost five years before (dwarfed by the massive IS-2s now on order). Initially summoned after the attempted Italian naval landing near Athens, they were now on watch after the surprise German paratrooper landing on Mytiléné.
I'd rather see 4th Cav added to our mobile reserves at the front. We certainly have a need for them, even if their tanks won't exactly stand up to modern panzers!
Then, also at midnight, came news that supplies had finally made it to 5 Inf Div in Zajecar: they were immediately ordered to Petrovac to reinforce the attack. They did that just an hour later: and that intervention was enough to send the Germans packing! Rather than wait to be further outnumbered, 16th Infanterie must have decided they were too exposed and began retreating north back over the Danube, rather than to Turnu Severin. Even better!
Mr Churchill, the Prime Minister of Great Britain, while affirming the special relationship between our two countries, has advised me that the Allies remain at peace with the Empire of Japan and, as we are not a member of that Alliance, its mutual defense clauses do not apply in this situation.
“Milli Şef, our Deputy Minister has held quick discussions with the US Ambassador and Defence Attaché in Ankara. They have confirmed that as a result of them joining the Comintern, the full inventory of US designed export-approved military equipment and training support is now available to us under license, should we wish to avail ourselves of their foreign military sales program.
Iowa-class BBs when? With our manpower situation, we certainly have the opportunity, and it would go a long way towards securing our coast both now and in the future when world tensions shift to Comintern vs. Allies.
The next briefing is the LO from the Supreme HQ, where they have hastily put together an estimate of relative forces in the new, broader Comintern Pact.
“My President, here are the recommendations for adding to our existing national war goals against the Axis powers. First, we start with Japan: we already seek to force them to join the Comintern and to have them as a puppet government, to better take advantage of any residual military forces they may command when they surrender. Minister Aras thought we could add a claim on French Indo-China, to potentially give us a base in South East Asia in the New Comintern World Order. Similarly, with Germany the Foreign Minister suggests adding another region to expand the Glorious Union in central Europe.”
“For Italy, we are now suggesting a bold approach. Initially, we have claimed two regions already as part of a post-war settlement. We are now suggesting a full conquest of Italy, to incorporate it entirely into the Glorious Union if it can be managed. Everyone agrees that we ‘owe them’ and it would sting badly if we were to recreate much of the old Roman Empire - except from east to west.”
“Thank you all,” says Inönü, turning finally to his HQ 1st Army staff. “I have decided to promote Özalp from 11 Division to command 4th Corps. That leaves Muzir in Podgorica to command any defence there.”
“And Eldelhun performed well during recent operations in command of 12 Inf Div, which took him to a new level [Sk3] of ability – he will command 5th ‘Comintern’ Corps.”
Echoing my earlier concern about keeping leaders at the divisional level to ensure our troops have the full benefit on the battlefield where it counts. TO me this is a worrisome note to close on.
All in all, an exciting and certainly unexpected update. Looking forward eagerly to see what happens next and the consequences of this latest diplomatic coup!
Boy, oh boy, this was quite an update! Diving right in...
One of the underappreciated thus far aspects of this AAR that's fascinating to see is the transition by a burgeoning minor-major power from WWI-style foot soldier armies to mobile and armored warfare tactics in slightly-faster-than-real-time.
I wonder what our military leadership's thought have been on using pinning attacks when battles like this are lost, to hold attackers from advancing until new defenders can be brought into place? Risky, given that such an attack weakens our line elsewhere, but an option nevertheless.
I'm starting to worry about all of these leaderless divisions in our OOB. Might it be worth taking some of those skilled corps or army leaders and having them command divisions to ensure that all of our men gain the full set of available modifiers in combat? Leader skill can make a pretty big difference in the outcomes of some of these very hard-fought battles.
I'd rather see 4th Cav added to our mobile reserves at the front. We certainly have a need for them, even if their tanks won't exactly stand up to modern panzers!
VUR-BLOODY-HA, MATES!!
Seriously, I've never seen this happen in a game before! This is quite a coup! Hirohito must have punched out his computer screen when he saw that!
Makes sense. The oft-maligned HoI3 "feature" of attacked neutral nations being forced into a faction rears its head in dramatic and timely fashion.
Iowa-class BBs when? With our manpower situation, we certainly have the opportunity, and it would go a long way towards securing our coast both now and in the future when world tensions shift to Comintern vs. Allies.
I'm shocked. SHOCKED. That the Americans have only built 42 GAR brigades instead of the usual 500 or so.
Careful now with all that greed, Mr. President. Pride cometh before a--
--good God, that's a gutsy play. We'll see if Churchill will stand for it.
Echoing my earlier concern about keeping leaders at the divisional level to ensure our troops have the full benefit on the battlefield where it counts. TO me this is a worrisome note to close on.
All in all, an exciting and certainly unexpected update. Looking forward eagerly to see what happens next and the consequences of this latest diplomatic coup!
Great comments - more later. But a quick one on leaders: inability to reinforce quickly, in part due to no corps commanders in 4 or 5 Corps, has been a bad penalty in a few battles now. Having them vacant for so long was an indication I generally agree with you and like them at the front. I’d hoped to wait until I got the five-brigade divisions, but have been bitten badly: it lost me Turnu Severin and almost the Danube Line. And my Corps HQs do fight a bit, so there’s still some value there. I agree it’s a risk, but felt I had to make the call. I’ll hopefully get a few new generals on 1 January. But all in all, I take it as the cost of expanding as a minor to major power. The leadership talent pool is limited, which is a bit of a check to compensate for human control.
German paratroopers in Mitylene, interesting... Germany really seems to have a soft spot for that island (in 'Odin's timeline, Germany is also in control of Mytilene, in that case, thanks to the fact that Germany got all the Greek territory not controlled by Italy or Bulgaria (Half of Crete and Mytilene) after their invasion of Greece) It's really somewhat useless, especially in German hands, as it's definitely tough to supply from Germany...
The whole Petrovac affair just proves that the Germans are incapable of properly following up big breakthroughs on the Balkans front in strength. 16 ID (mot) pressed on very well, but no other German formations followed into Petrovac or Turnu Severin. The Germans worked so hard to get that beachhead, and then they don't throw everything they have at it? Too bad for them, all the better for the Comintern. This, of course, is not meant to diminish the stellar efforts the Turkish armed forces put into throwing the offending Motorised Division back across the Danube. The Turkish Air Force's constant harassment of the invaders, and the many thousands of soldiers who fought tooth and nail to the point of exhaustion to buy the Army enough time to react. The Gebirgsjäger in Turnu Severin shouldn't be too much trouble, they came out of that first battle in significantly worse shape than their motorised colleagues, and they're defending plains, not exactly the type of terrain they've been trained for...
As expected Beograd was an easy defence, with the SS attacking (half of their number across a river) into urban terrain held by a more numerous, dug in, and determined enemy. I'm sure that once all is said and done, the casualties will be pretty one-sided in Turkey's favour.
The Japanese attack on the US was a welcome surprise, and then the US asking to join the Comintern was an even better one. It seems Roosevelt's UK ambassador made inquiries with the British soon after the Japanese attack. All I could find out is that the US asked for the Allies to declare war on Japan as a condition for the US to join the Allies. When the British turned them down, the US foreign minister seems to have said that if the Allies wouldn't fight the Japs, then the US would go find friends who already were. A state visit to Moskva later, and the US is officially part of the Comintern, now also known in the US as the 'anti-Japanese Pact'. Despite the Capiltalist nature of the US, realpolitik and the priorities of the war prevailed on both sides, we hope to build a strong, mutually beneficial relationship within the same supranational structure. There will be full collaboration and a system for widespread intelligence sharing is already being set up, I personally met with a few of my American counterparts to help set it up. With the USA in the Comintern, it is no longer a question of whether we will win the war, but when we will. They bring a lot to the table: A massive industrial base, a powerful navy only rivaled by the Royal Navy, and a lot of very advanced weapons designs we will be able to produce or receive through lend-lease to aid our own war effort. While some have been saying that a conflict, or at least a hard rivalry, between the Communist and Capitalist giants is inevitable, this is likely to prove them wrong. The Comintern has gone from an Alliance to promote Communism in its most Stalinist form to one to promote the destruction of Facist and Imperialist powers, and a harmonious new world order once the fighting is done. In part at least, we have Turkey to thank for that, despite their lack of Stalinist Communism, they courted the Soviet Union to Join the Comintern out of strategic considerations. Some in Soviet Diplomatic service have been overheard, behind closed doors, saying that if it were not for Turkey being part of the Comintern, the US may have never seen joining the Comintern as an option in the first place.
Let us all rejoice at the newly enlarged and emboldened Comintern,
SkitalecS3
On the appointment of Corps commanders, this is a good and necessary move. The effects of traits trickle down, this means that, when short on leaders with good traits, the corps level is very important. All Divisions within a corps get 50% of the trait effects of the Corps commander applied to them. Just as vital is reinforcement time, which is impacted by the Skill Level of the Corps commander. Of course, having a skilled Division leader improves combat efficiency and gives that Division the full effect of all of his traits, but that's only a single Division that gets that benefit, instead of 5, you do the maths. Ideally, you want Corps commanders with as many traits as possible and a decent skill level. It all depends on what you want to prioritise, if it's supplies, then you need high skill on AG level, if it's Organisation, high skill levels at Army Level, if it's reinforcement chance, and spreading around traits as effectively as possible, it's high skill and many traits at Corps level. High skill at Division level creates a few expertly-led and more combat effective Divisions, at the cost of the benefits to the rest of the Army that would have come from placing said leaders elsewhere in the hierarchy. Oh, and you can reduce stacking penalty with highly skilled Theatre commanders... not that that's really relevant to Turkye in the slightest. Of course, most people mix and match a bit in an attempt to balance priorities.
What!? he exclaims to himself. Where the hell did they come from? And what the hell do they think they’re going to do there? These reckless fools are certainly keeping us on the hop - but what will this gain them in the long run? Paratroops marooned, unsupported and unsupplied, on a Mediterranean island!
By 3pm, 3 Inf Div was almost at the end of its tether [1.5 org] and 19 Inf Div not that much better. It was decided to bring them both out of Petrovac simultaneously, before they broke and while they could still be directed to the reserve position of Cuprija. Another loss, but certainly not as expensive as in Turnu Severin.
One of my favorite defensive tactics. Very powerful and relies on modest skill level instead of a skill difference which might be hard to achieve sometimes.
Comment: That’s right – the US have joined the Comintern! I was completely not expecting that and until just this last session had no idea the US were even about to enter the war (or be forced into it). Though of course, we all knew we were approaching the historical time for it.
WHAT THE BLOODY FUKCH ASjajsajs I can just press random keys and nothing else at this moment!
This has REALLY been an unexpected development. I, for one, welcome our comrade Americans into Comintern
Before reading the rest which probably includes you tying this interesting game behaviour into the narrative, I can say that it only makes sense for the Americans (who join the war by getting attacked by the Japanese) to join the side who's actually trying to fight the nazis and the fascists.
Although, I'm really worried about the American AI ever since I subscribed to this great American AI AAR @Eurasia writes I hope in our universe they're more competent (maybe you can consider making their default HQ division include some fighthing brigades? )
“Haydi canım? Yok artık?” [Got this from the dreaded Interweb. @diskoerekto, I hope this translates somewhat correctly as an exclamation of disbelieving amazement.]
On the appointment of Corps commanders, this is a good and necessary move. The effects of traits trickle down, this means that, when short on leaders with good traits, the corps level is very important. All Divisions within a corps get 50% of the trait effects of the Corps commander applied to them. Just as vital is reinforcement time, which is impacted by the Skill Level of the Corps commander. Of course, having a skilled Division leader improves combat efficiency and gives that Division the full effect of all of his traits, but that's only a single Division that gets that benefit, instead of 5, you do the maths. Ideally, you want Corps commanders with as many traits as possible and a decent skill level. It all depends on what you want to prioritise, if it's supplies, then you need high skill on AG level, if it's Organisation, high skill levels at Army Level, if it's reinforcement chance, and spreading around traits as effectively as possible, it's high skill and many traits at Corps level. High skill at Division level creates a few expertly-led and more combat effective Divisions, at the cost of the benefits to the rest of the Army that would have come from placing said leaders elsewhere in the hierarchy. Oh, and you can reduce stacking penalty with highly skilled Theatre commanders... not that that's really relevant to Turkye in the slightest. Of course, most people mix and match a bit in an attempt to balance priorities.
It's an age-old debate, but I always find it interesting how people choose to prioritize assigning their commanders. Personally, I tend to emphasize Army Group > Army > Division > Corps >>>>Theater (almost never assigning a theater commander in fact) but I've seen it done every which way! Regardless of how one handles it...the real problem is: too many men, not enough leaders. Not the worst problem to have, of course, and I'm sure many of Germany's conquests (and a few of Turkey's, to boot!) would have preferred it over the opposite problem!
It's an age-old debate, but I always find it interesting how people choose to prioritize assigning their commanders. Personally, I tend to emphasize Army Group > Army > Division > Corps >>>>Theater (almost never assigning a theater commander in fact) but I've seen it done every which way! Regardless of how one handles it...the real problem is: too many men, not enough leaders. Not the worst problem to have, of course, and I'm sure many of Germany's conquests (and a few of Turkey's, to boot!) would have preferred it over the opposite problem!
Exactly, when you run out of leaders, you have way more units than would be historical (except if you play SU, and the big purges just happened), so you're definitely doing something right... Theatre level command is not the most important, but it's not worthless. If you have a lot of units in it, then a low skill Logistics Wizard will save you a significant amount on supply consumption. AG >Army > Division > Corps > Theatre makes sense to me, it puts supply over combat, and combat over reinforcement, and stacking penalties. To me, a big nuancing factor is the amount and type of traits. I tend to avoid putting leaders with multiple traits in charge of Divisions, especially non-elite ones, placing them at Army and Corps level instead, to try and get the most out of their traits, with the higher skilled ones at Army level, and the lower skilled ones on Corps level, this to strike a balance between spreading the traits amongst as many units as possible, and those same traits still having a significant effect on the individual units. At AG level, I get the highest possible skill, preferably with no traits (or maybe Logistics Wizard). Of course, this way of doing things is somewhat linked with the game, and the way I'm playing right now, using the AI to run Soviet Armies, and even Army Groups. With manual control, it can make more sense to maximise a few elite Divisions/corps that are meant to do all of the offensive operations, giving them a highly skilled and trait-filled chain of command maximising combat, org, and reinforcement stats, while the line units get the leftover Generals, and a chain of command based around lowering their supply consumption. It all depends on so many factors, personal preference, type and number of units, playstyle, even the quality of the infrastructure in which the fighting will happen is a factor.
