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It's stuff like this that reminds you of how dangerous new media was in the early 20th century. It was good enough to be impressive and 'realistic' but also tightly controlled. Propaganda never had it so good. And if you were very good at it, you could probably get your population to believe anything.
There were a lot of female spies dotted around France and the rest of Europe during the war. A lot were captured and executed but some were successful. Moreso than the German spies whom, by war's end, had all been turned in the UK and made into double agents or imprisoned.
1/3 Cav Bde arrives in Iskenderun to cement Turkey’s sovereignty over the newly acquired Hatay Republic. Hatay will not be given Glorious National Republic status nor a seat at the Council of Premiers, but instead will be managed as an autonomous governorate of the GGR of Turkey. [Ed: The map notes some nearby provinces of more contemporary notoriety.]
Oh dear...is there still someone left alive in turkey who remembers how to diplomatically deal with the various tribes and ethnic groups of the Middle East? Otherwise I fear we're going to be about as successful as the British in 1946.
Any strategic advisers or press commentators [Ed: that is all of you, my valued readers] are welcome to make their views known on this quandary. These views will be considered by Cabinet.
Um...well how likely I shall it that the Japanese really are focusing that much in you and it isn't just a bug? Might need to correct a little, especially as by this point there's very little chance of turkey ever going into the axis. The soviets remain your best bet because you can help each other out in game more than any other faction, plus all of our plans revolve around it. I suppose you can say (in universe) that this is the Nazis trying to get turkey (like Russia) to accept a deal in Eastern Europe rather than go to war over Poland, a deal that we may or may not take for now.follow Russia's cue there.
But yeah, we need to get into the Soviet bubble Now, or very soon because the war is I estimate a year away or less.
Coming Up: Europe seemingly edges ever closer to war over Danzig and the ‘Polish Corridor’. But for now, Turkey still seems well insulated from these troubles. Nonetheless, the Government must take stock as Europe moves towards crisis: should the current plan to align to the Comintern remain in force, or – after all the rhetoric and propaganda of recent years – should the UGNR instead face its changed diplomatic circumstances and realign towards the Axis? And, even if the Comintern alignment is maintained, is it right to continue sinking the bulk of infrastructure resources into a defence in depth, sacrificing the hard-won European dominions? Or should Turkey seek to begin a more advanced line of defence to try to hold the bulk of the Balkans? If, as appears certain, Poland refuses to become ‘another Czechoslovakia’, will Hitler actually risk war with the Allies? And if it does come to war, what lessons will be learned from Poland’s brave attempt to defend itself? All views on these issues welcome!
I somewhat hesitate to have a view on your future. iirc, you stated you did not want to tag? If I were in your shoes and wanted to ally with the SU and were then met with what I believed would happen in game, as has happened, I would tag, one time, to Germany and declare on yourself. (if I could - never tried) I think, only then could you have the story again, iirc, that you wanted to tell. On the other hand, Germany typically needs the Balkans in the great-battle and of course you are the Balkans.
I somewhat hesitate to have a view on your future. iirc, you stated you did not want to tag? If I were in your shoes and wanted to ally with the SU and were then met with what I believed would happen in game, as has happened, I would tag, one time, to Germany and declare on yourself. (if I could - never tried) I think, only then could you have the story again, iirc, that you wanted to tell. On the other hand, Germany typically needs the Balkans in the great-battle and of course you are the Balkans.
I always welcome advice and discussion! The no tag pledge is basically about in game play or forcing a cheesy decision, etc. I will still intervene if I necessary to maintain the integrity of the game and narrative concept. So, right toward the start, when the 'prepare for war' effect ran out before Turkey was anywhere near close enough to lower neutrality to declare on anyone for years, I just extended it until I was close enough that a little espionage to increase threat would do the rest. I hadn't realised in advance it would just stop after six months and it didn't seem logical that a government would not just keep going with such a decision if they were hell bent on doing it.
In this case, I was just unlucky (?) or the game played well to delay me joining the Comintern when I thought I might be able to: maybe, because I had a much larger empire than when I did a run through simulation in 1937, I became a bigger target for influence - which actually makes sense. In this case, I don't have any problem declaring on the Axis myself if I want to - could have done so at almost any point in the last year or two. It's just doing so without without protection or running the risk of being attacked without such protection, specifically the Soviets. I think the latter risk is fair enough in game terms: I could easily have been nearly ready to join the Comintern by now if the chips had fallen differently and could again quite quickly (now that the Germans are starting to trigger more events, I found in my previous experiment that the amount of Axis influence when applied decreases, and the power of the Comintern alignment increases).
But soon the Germans will be at war with the Allies, so that is one distraction. As previously debated in Cabinet way back when, the danger period is the gap between the presumed fall of France (say mid-1940) and likely invasion of Russia (mid-1941). So my drop-dead Comintern alignment target is about July 1940. I still think that's achievable, but if not, then well done AI ! It still doesn't mean the Axis will attack - they may not care (with the event triggers removed, the Balkans may end up being the Pax Turkiye we had been promising all along ! Certainly, the Italy-Albania event has come and gone by now. And if it all turns to custard and they do attack before I can get my Soviet protector, then I will see how well my defensive lines work (they should be pretty well constructed in a years time - they are already starting to shape up quite well). I will just have to hope that the Soviets are either brought in or attack not too long after their historical entry to the war.
I reckon I should be able to join the Comintern eventually, so can still help the Soviets survive and be part of the great proletarian victory. And in the meantime, there is some delicious strategic uncertainty to sweat about! Bottom line, I will still have another Great War to describe (I'm sure the Second Great War is very close) and Turkey will become a part of it (whether dragged in early or at a time of our choosing). In a way, our situation is broadly analogous to that of the US and the USSR: it would be nice for us if the entry of the UGNR roughly coincided with the entry of those two!
So, this can be considered the Cabinet debate - you can see which way it may be leaning, but maybe there are others out there with arguments in favour of morphing the great Turkish project into the previously hinted Union of Glorious National Socialist Republics?
Um...well how likely I shall it that the Japanese really are focusing that much in you and it isn't just a bug? Might need to correct a little, especially as by this point there's very little chance of turkey ever going into the axis. The soviets remain your best bet because you can help each other out in game more than any other faction, plus all of our plans revolve around it. I suppose you can say (in universe) that this is the Nazis trying to get turkey (like Russia) to accept a deal in Eastern Europe rather than go to war over Poland, a deal that we may or may not take for now.follow Russia's cue there.
But yeah, we need to get into the Soviet bubble Now, or very soon because the war is I estimate a year away or less.
I did seriously wonder if such a long focus was a bug of some sort, but it now seems to have stopped. I had the fortitude not to tag and try to stop it - though only just! Also, because of some of the arguments highlighted to markkur above. Morally a realignment to the Axis seems unlikely, but technically it probably would now be quite easy. Will see if anyone puts a serious argument to Cabinet. But at the moment, the majority seem to resent the Axis interference and are still committed to the Soviet alignment. Could be some tense moments though, depending on the flow of events and how the 'hidden diplomatic war' goes in coming months. I genuinely don't know - just have theories and possibilities, which I find kind of exciting! Some genuine strategic uncertainty!
Well put it this way, the Turks are not looking for a fight with the axis but consider one inevitable at this point. Hungary especially must fight with the republic over the Balkans if this is going to be in any way realistic. On the other hand, the other two axis members in Europe...well, Italy seems to be focused on Africa and historically went for Albania and the Balkans because it was easy. Germany might want the resources of Romania but then again, if the western front goes as planned, Hitler will be spoilt for choice for most resources bar oil (for which he'll go after Russia).
Basically, inuniverse the cabinet knows a war with Hungary is very likely, that the rest of the axis (especially Japan and Germany) don't seem to want to fight them but also don't want them aligning with the soviets. They know the allies are in a poor position to defend against a combined assault in France against Germany and Italy (France is crawling with enemy agents for one) and that Italy, whilst not heavily guarding their border with turkey, must expand somewhere to try and keep up with Germany (presumably Africa but who knows?).
The defences for the heartlands are not ready and the ones in Greece are, if attacked right now, simply a waste of resources. Turkey is not yet ready for an aggressive or all out defensive war against the entire axis and probably can't do so without series help from the allies or soviets. So we can't declare on Germany for example (you can...but the in-universe cabinet wouldn't). At the moment, turkey is praying that war breaks out in a year's time, with the axis focusing fully on fighting in France and then in Africa and against the soviets rather than turning to the Balkans when France falls/is knocked out (they might know France will lose but not whether Germany will really occupy them or not). That's the best case scenario. What's more likely is that Hungary will declare war on turkey and be slowly joined by the rest of the axis troops later on as their war machine turns east to fight Russia. Whether we can defeat Hungary before that time or not is debatable but I would imagine that if there is going to be an eastern front, it will inevitably merge into one war against both us and Russia. If that happens and we still aren't in an alliance, I would say mod the game to do so because Stalin would accept all the help he could get and all the meatshields he can buy to keep Hitler away from Moscow.
Well put it this way, the Turks are not looking for a fight with the axis but consider one inevitable at this point. Hungary especially must fight with the republic over the Balkans if this is going to be in any way realistic. On the other hand, the other two axis members in Europe...well, Italy seems to be focused on Africa and historically went for Albania and the Balkans because it was easy. Germany might want the resources of Romania but then again, if the western front goes as planned, Hitler will be spoilt for choice for most resources bar oil (for which he'll go after Russia).
Basically, inuniverse the cabinet knows a war with Hungary is very likely, that the rest of the axis (especially Japan and Germany) don't seem to want to fight them but also don't want them aligning with the soviets. They know the allies are in a poor position to defend against a combined assault in France against Germany and Italy (France is crawling with enemy agents for one) and that Italy, whilst not heavily guarding their border with turkey, must expand somewhere to try and keep up with Germany (presumably Africa but who knows?).
The defences for the heartlands are not ready and the ones in Greece are, if attacked right now, simply a waste of resources. Turkey is not yet ready for an aggressive or all out defensive war against the entire axis and probably can't do so without series help from the allies or soviets. So we can't declare on Germany for example (you can...but the in-universe cabinet wouldn't). At the moment, turkey is praying that war breaks out in a year's time, with the axis focusing fully on fighting in France and then in Africa and against the soviets rather than turning to the Balkans when France falls/is knocked out (they might know France will lose but not whether Germany will really occupy them or not). That's the best case scenario. What's more likely is that Hungary will declare war on turkey and be slowly joined by the rest of the axis troops later on as their war machine turns east to fight Russia. Whether we can defeat Hungary before that time or not is debatable but I would imagine that if there is going to be an eastern front, it will inevitably merge into one war against both us and Russia. If that happens and we still aren't in an alliance, I would say mod the game to do so because Stalin would accept all the help he could get and all the meatshields he can buy to keep Hitler away from Moscow.
Interesting thoughts - thanks! I know we've had the discussion about Hungary before: I guess it's possible, but I don't buy the Hungary threat, either in game or in universe: in game, there is (as far as I know) no specific trigger now that claims they would have had against Balkan countries have been rendered inoperable by the conquest or puppeting of the targets (others who know more of these things may point out a flaw in my supposition, though). They could try to attack me I guess, but right now Hungary is a small power with a not very fearsome military: I think Romania would give them a good run without Turkish help.
I can't see in game they would feel the need or decent odds to attack themselves against two countries both more powerful than them. In universe, I think the arguments would still be similar: they may want Transylvania etc, but would be picking a fight they know they couldn't come close to winning on their own. Unlike say Italy (a major power in game) and Greece. I don't know for sure, but I'll take a bet that Hungary will follow, not lead, and if they do try something, will let Romania be my 'meat shield' without exposing my troops to a German intervention and destruction.
The rest of the overall view looks pretty much to the Cabinet as you describe. And yes, the defensive lines (especially in Greece, which at present is designed to be more of an expensive diversion and distraction for prospective Axis attackers) need a lot more work, but they will be looking better in a year and much better in two, if our diplomatic gambles pay off.
From what I've experienced with the game so far, the AI won't invest its strategy with the same ambitions a human would, unless they fall into the 'classic' WW2 narrative the game is designed to support or are triggered by obscure (to humble me anyway) algorithms. As someone was telling me last week at work (about real life strategic decisions) "hope is not a strategy", so I'll expect and prepare for the worst and then hope for better opportunities to present themselves.
Yes, most of Cabinet (and the press and strategy commentariat) stills seems to be leaning towards the "stay the course" approach, but there are still a few old school rightists or isolationists (including the President) who may have alternative views. And remember how surprised many were at the original Cabinet decision that set us on this course in the first place - when the Cabinet starts "Talking Turkey" seriously (the ultimate theme of this AAR in a comparatively free-wheeling straight context) anything can happen!
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Chapter 62: To be Red, or not to be? (1 to 30 August 1939)
Chapter 62:To be Red, or not to be?(1 to 30 August 1939)
1 Aug 39
Glenn Miller and His Orchestra recorded "In the Mood" on this day.
(3:21)
Braanszon ‘BJ’ Guildenstern has got an advance copy of this great new song out of America. Listening to it, he can imagine himself back in the States, not sitting in Ankara, wondering whether the whole of Europe will be in flames by the time he wakes up the next morning.
BJ Guildenstern: “Now that is a hit!”
2 Aug 39
News Report: London, UK. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain introduces a motion to adjourn the House of Commons until October 3. The motion passed 250-132, and an attempted amendment by the opposition to shorten the length of adjournment to August 21 is defeated. More than 30 Conservatives supported the shorter recess and express their displeasure by abstaining from voting. One of them was Winston Churchill, and another was John Ronald Cartland, who during a speech prophetically says, “We are in the situation that within a month we may be going to fight, and we may be going to die.”
Churchill and Chamberlain outside Parliament on 2 August 1939: same political party, two very different approaches. It would have been interesting to hear what they were talking about.
The fortifications in Cannakale continue to be developed. The fort level is now three there: with a strait to protect it and mountain terrain to defend with two full strength mountain divisions (now also with mountain warfare equipment) plus other conventional troops to help hold it, any further ground fortification building in Canakkale will be deferred for now. Instead, four new provincial Heavy AA batteries are queued in parallel, enough to provide an extra one each to the four main defensive line provinces as deemed necessary when they are delivered.
Çanakkale (from Ottoman Turkish, literally “pot fortress”) is a city in Çanakkale Province, on the southern (Asian) coast of the Dardanelles at their narrowest point. This has been a key strategic location for thousands of years: the city is the nearest major town to the site of ancient Troy. This photo is of the old Ottoman fortifications – a picture of Atatürk can be seen hanging from the fortress’s walls.
In Patra, a new AT brigade is delivered and joins 9 Inf Div (Lt) It will field four brigades until more forces are available to create another ‘triangular’ (INF/INF/SPT) light division there.
4 Aug 39
Our Turkish board chairman of the renamed International Immobiliare Group reports that the corporation has successfully completed the move of its headquarters and principal assets to Zurich. Given what may soon occur in the rest of Europe, it should be safe there. It may also be a useful base of operations for our various ‘financial analysts’ and ‘infrastructure executives’ who may pass through there on otherwise perfectly innocent-looking business.
A postcard from Zurich in 1939: so peaceful-looking, after all the confrontation and spilt blood required to acquire Immobiliare and relocate it there. But it has helped power a massive and continuing expansion in Turkish infrastructure expenditure which may indeed help save the Motherland.
5 Aug 39
News Report: Free City of Danzig, ‘Polish Corridor’. Poland sends Danzig a note demanding interference with Polish customs guards on the border with East Prussia ceases.
6 Aug 30
News Report: Warsaw, Poland.Poland celebrates the 25th anniversary of the Polish Legions' entry into the Great War. Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły tells a cheering crowd of 100,000 that “violence inflicted by force must be resisted by force” and that Poland's conduct with regard to Danzig “will be adjusted to the conduct of the other side.”
Later that day, there is a major shock: a Nazi-Soviet Pact is announced [Ed: it was concluded 28 Aug in OTL, and of course the two foreign ministers who signed in were von Ribbentrop and Molotov]. This is a dangerous development, especially for Poland. For Turkey, it is interesting: if the two blocs vying for our favour have just concluded a pact, then maybe Turkey will be relatively safe for a while. But it won’t affect the UGNR’s worst-case scenario preparations.
Of note, straight after the announcement of the Pact, a check on Turkey’s alignment progress shows the Comintern alignment rate has risen by a point or two to 14.90; Axis drift is now down to 1.87 (it was over 28 at the height of the recent Japanese influence campaign).
7 Aug 39
News Report: Free City of Danzig, ‘Polish Corridor’.Danzig rejects the Polish demand of August 5, refusing to recognise untrained Polish officials as supervisors of Danzig customs.
8 Aug 39
Germany mobilises, just two days after the declaration of their pact with the Soviets. This is worrying enough, but would have been more inflammatory had not both Poland and France already mobilised some weeks back. Still, it adds plenty of fuel to the fire and indicates they will be ready to do whatever Hitler wants to in only a few more weeks.
10 Aug 39
War Cabinet Meeting, Ankara. The time has come to confirm the path ahead for Turkey in the aftermath of the very persistent Axis propaganda campaign of recent months, spearheaded by Japan.
Much has already been discussed [Ed: ie in the forum, so I’m not going to overdo the debate again here]. In essence, the status quo of Comintern alignment and defence in depth is still accepted by most pundits and members of Cabinet. The arguments are essentially the same as when this was exhaustively debated in 1937. A few brave souls, “just for form’s sake, of course, purely as Devil’s Advocate”, argue that the opportunity presented by the Axis campaign and their apparent growing power on Turkey’s doorstep means another viable alternative has emerged.
Turkey’s vast gains in the Balkans and our Romanian ally could be secured from otherwise certain seizure by Italy, Germany and their Axis lackey Hungary.
Many excellent German production licenses for military equipment could be had.
Revenge on the Western Powers and reclamation of the lands of the old Ottoman Empire: Iraq, Syria, Palestine, the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt – perhaps even western India!
Sure, all the fortifications of the Iskandar and Calistar Lines may no longer be required, but they do no harm and can help safeguard some key points from any future amphibious invasions. We didn’t have the manpower or technology to build many more land units or decent air units anyway.
All the units currently being deployed to defend against the Axis could be sent to the Caucasus and do just as good a job there.
Once the Germans begin taking down the Soviets, an opportunity should arise for Turkey to exact some revenge on the old Russian enemy and seize some more land.
Romania has their front covered, especially if they would then have Axis support in the event of a general war with the Soviets that we might become involved in.
And we could stop all this mealy-mouthed pro-Communist claptrap and get back to our good old-fashioned, right-wing autocratic roots. Hell, yeah! This is starting to sound plausible …
All this time, President and Milli Şef Inönü – right-wing isolationist and secret Mussolini-admirer – has been nodding neutrally as the various arguments go back and forth. He finally signals and the room falls silent.
“You have all given much food for thought,” Inönü says to the assembled Cabinet members. “What started as a prudent review of our existing policies has brought forth some interesting arguments. Just as when our dear President Kemal Atatürk made the final call when we started on this path, in the end, I must decide in the interests of Turkey and the UGNR, many of whose citizens lie in the direct path of Axis aggression, should we provoke it.”
As a matter of foreign and defence policy, this is a decision for the Turkish Cabinet, not the UGNR’s Council of Premiers. He turns to his Prime Minister. “Come, Bayar, we will retire to my study and discuss this together, then I will present my decision to the Cabinet.”
President Ismet Inönü (left) and Prime Minister Mahmut Celâl Bayar (right) discuss important matters of state during a break in the War Cabinet meeting in Ankara on 10 Aug 39.
After a rigorous, hour-long private discussion (for which no minutes or records were made), Inönü returns with Bayar to address his colleagues with a short speech.
It has been decided. We have come too far along this path to turn away now. Our strength must be shown by our convictions, words and deeds. We will not join weak appeasers in bending the knee to the Axis, especially to that vile madman Hitler. It may be a hard road, but along it lies our Path to Glory. We will continue to prepare our stand against the monstrous Fascist juggernaut and its terrible ideology.
While we will not rush headlong or unprepared into someone else’s battle, we will be ready to fight our own. Whether that will be at a time and in a manner of our own choosing remains to be seen. Our defensive lines will be built ever stronger. All efforts will be made to improve our manpower stocks. Our diplomatic campaign to join with the Comintern will continue with determination in the face of Axis provocation.
The recent Nazi-Soviet Pact may have bought us some extra time – we shall see. Whatever time we are granted, we must make the best use of it we can. Onwards to Glory! Praise the Motherland! Power to the strong arms of the Union of Glorious National Republics! For Turkey, Atatürk and Victory!
And so, the dreaded die is cast. The brave fight against Fascist tyranny will continue, until the workers’ paradise (with Turkish characteristics) is achieved. The propagandists are sent away to devise a new campaign – perhaps on the virtues of Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist-Kemalist state socialism!
11-13 Aug 39 – Ciano’s Talks with Germany
Intelligence Report: On 11 Aug, Italian Deputy [in this ATL] Foreign Minister Galeazzo Ciano travels to Salzburg to begin three days of talks with his German counterpart Constantin von Neurath [Joachim von Ribbentrop in OTL]. This much was public knowledge. But French agents (whose reports we have seen) advise that Ciano soon realised Germany was serious in its willingness to risk starting a general war. This was not welcome news for the Italians, who were unprepared for war and do not think that the Axis powers would fare well if Britain and France came to the aid of Poland. The next day, Ciano and von Neurath rode to the Berghof and met with Adolf Hitler, who (according to Italian reports secured later by ‘Vito’ Ceylan in Rome after the visit) confidently asserted that any war against Poland would be “a localised war.”
Hitler welcomes Ciano (centre left) to the Berghof for discussions, 12 Aug 39.
One well-placed source reported that when Count Ciano returned to Italy on 13 August, he was convinced the Germans had already decided on war and that nothing could be done to deter them. “I am certain that even if the Germans were given more than they ask for they would attack just the same, because they are possessed by the demon of destruction”, said one of our double-agents, who briefly had access to Ciano’s personal diary.
14 Aug 39
It’s hardly a match for the German mobilisation, but every little bit helps: a second Heavy AA battery is placed in Athina.
Given we may remain at peace for some time longer and our metal production has required some bolstering through trade deals recently, another convoy (of ten merchant vessels) is ordered. Cheap, and no manpower used. Could be needed to keep southern Greece in supply at some point, either to hold out or keep them in supply until evacuated. New road infrastructure is also ordered for Istanbul: this is simply to boost recovery rates a little in anticipation of future defensive battles. The same is currently being constructed in Canakkale for the same reason and will soon be completed.
15 Aug 39
Entertainment News: The musical fantasy film The Wizard of Oz has its official premiere at Grauman's Chinese Theatre in Hollywood.
(2:08) Judy Garland, singing Somewhere over the Rainbow … you just gotta!
Canakkale gets its second provincial AA battery. More AA is ordered, as this remains one of Turkey’s biggest vulnerabilities given our primitive aircraft industry and an inability so far to buy any more advanced fighter licenses.
16 Aug 39
News Report: Free City of Danzig, ‘Polish Corridor’.A Polish soldier is killed 20 yards inside the Danzig border. Polish sources say he had crossed over by mistake and was shot without receiving any kind of warning beforehand. In retaliation, Polish military guards are given orders to shoot any uniformed German or Danzinger in Polish territory on sight.
This is getting ugly, and brutal.
19 Aug 39
More AA is installed in Istanbul: this is where we believe the hammer will fall hardest when it finally does and this is the city we can least afford to lose. Not only for its manpower, leadership and other resource value, but because it represents Turkey’s toehold on the European mainland – from which (it is planned) the great anti-Fascist counter-offensive will one day be launched. That said, just in case, a fort is commenced at Üsküdar. Not defeatism, but if Istanbulwere to fall (disaster though that would be), a retreat behind The Bosphorus (another strait) could still be made. Though forts are still reasonably expensive, they are getting cheaper all the time and, again, don’t cost manpower.
Intelligence Report: Moscow, USSR. Our Defence Attaché overheard a senior Soviet official talking to a friend in a banya (sauna), where he thought he wasn’t being overheard: rumours are circulating in the Kremlin that Stalin, during a secret meeting of the Politburo, outlined the strategy of the Soviet Union in the upcoming war. Stalin supposedly said the war among the Western powers should go on as long as possible so all belligerents would be weakened, creating an ideal opportunity for Soviet expansion. If true, this sounds like an excellent plan! Where do we sign up?
21 Aug 39
A precious new infantry brigade completes basic training. It is deployed in Patra, forming the new 10 Inf Div (Lt), taking on a spare AA brigade from 9 Inf Div. This is now the second ‘light’ division for that Iskandar Line province, though not yet at full strength. At a pinch, it could take in one of the two co-located garrison brigades, send the other to do port guard duty to the south (the emergency escape point in case the line falls).
The new infrastructure for Canakkale is completed - just a few main roads to be sealed and it will be ready. It is hoped this will make sustainment and reinforcement of the units stationed there in battle more efficient.
24 Aug 39
News Report: Washington DC, US. President Roosevelt appeals to King Victor Emmanuel III of Italy “to formulate proposals for a pacific solution of the present crisis.”
News Report: Vatican City, Rome, Italy. Pope Pius XII makes a radio address to the entire world pleading for peace. “The danger is imminent, but there is yet time”, the Pontiff says. “Nothing is lost with peace; all may be with war. Let men return to mutual understanding. Let them begin negotiations anew. Conferring with goodwill and with respect for reciprocal rights they will find that to sincere and conscientious negotiators, an honourable solution is never precluded.”
25 Aug 39
Intelligence Report: Berlin, Germany. At 1245 Hitler summons the British Ambassador to Germany, Sir Nevile Henderson, and talks with him for about an hour. The British have advised the French (and thus eventuallyTurkey) that Hitler said it was necessary to solve the Polish question once and for all and offered to make a pact with Britain guaranteeing the Empire's existence and potentially leading to an agreement on armaments limitation in the future. Hitler met the French Ambassador Robert Coulondre later that day, who told Hitler that if Poland was attacked France would come to its aid. Shortly thereafter, Poland and the United Kingdom signed the Agreement of Mutual Assistance, formalising Britain's earlier declaration of support for Poland.
The Germans (via a neutral contact of Hermann Göring’s, the Swedish businessman Birger Dahlerus) have been feverishly working ‘back channels’ with the British, attempting to come to a deal to head off war but still give Germany what it wanted in Poland. Analyst's Comment: Will all these pleas for peace and pledges to support Poland be enough to ward the Germans off? Will the Allies cave in again, as they did over Czechoslovakia? Despite the conclusion of the Nazi-Soviet Pact earlier in the month (6 Aug) and German mobilisation two days later, the hammer has not yet fallen.
Intelligence Report: Rome, Italy. Vito Ceylan’s contacts report that Benito Mussolini has sent a telegram to Hitler informing him that Italy would remain neutral in a war between Germany and Poland. It seems Italy is not optimistic about the outcome and not keen to become embroiled in a destructive war with the Allies (especially in the Mediterranean) over a few disputed border provinces in Poland. And Hitler did advise it would only be a “localised war”, did he not?
Tensions remain high for the rest of the month, but no tangible moves are made by Germany. Foreign Minister Aras and Intelligence Head Ögel both agree that the early days of September will be crucial: German mobilisation will soon be fully completed (allowing around a month from 8 Aug), but we have no reports as to German troop dispositions - yet.
29 Aug 39
With upgrade costs beginning to come down again, another convoy is ordered to take up the production slack. We are waiting until manpower rises back up to 40 before ordering another infantry brigade, which we are sorely in need of.
30 Aug 39
Foreign Minister Aras presents a diplomatic review in a report to Cabinet at the end of the month. A merciful respite in Axis influence (no provocateurs seen since last month) has seen the alignment distance to the Comintern reduced by around 20 to almost exactly 200. Still a long way to go, but a welcome trend.
Our good relations with Poland are going to be followed up: our Ambassador and Defence Attaché in Warsaw are instructed to propose that Turkey augment its mission in Poland to include a range of military observers out in the various Army Headquarters, who will be permitted to report back general information on Axis and Polish troop dispositions (as cleared with Polish liaison officers). In return, we offer our warm best wishes and felicitations. [Ed: in reality, what this means is I will occasionally tag over to Poland – taking care not to disrupt Turkish human control – to grab a screenshot, so we can follow anticipated developments there in more detail than just seeing blank provinces disappear one after another.]
Poland has noted Turkey’s very warm coverage of their brave preparations and our staunchly anti-Fascist public position, so Aras is sure they will accede to our request. We should get the first report of peacetime dispositions at the beginning of September. The Ambassador will get onto it right away.
Ahmet Ferit Tek (b. 1877) was an Ottoman Turkish military officer. After the war, he joined the Kemalists and has been an academic, politician, government minister (a former Finance and later Interior Minister). He has been a diplomat since 1925 and has been Turkey’s Ambassador to Poland since 1932. He is a senior diplomat and long-term Ambassador in Warsaw.
[Ed: A similar (in-game) approach will be taken with France when the time comes: this time, we will use the pretence of more open press reporting and our long term massive spy presence to again provide periodic snapshots to illustrate campaign progress there as well. Hopefully we will be in the Comintern and able to follow developments in Russia as well if the Germans invade. I won’t take the same approach with the UK or US, nor with any Axis power. But the above should be sufficient for an interesting story to be told during Turkey’s ‘Cold War in Waiting’ period, which is anticipated to last for another year or two yet (if we’re lucky).]
Coming Up: We will be interested to get our first snapshot of the proposed Polish defensive preparations and any visible German (and other Axis) deployments along their borders. A report of French dispositions has also been requested from our extensive network based in Paris. This should give us some broad idea of how the stage has been set, should it come to war over Danzig and the ‘Polish Corridor’. Meanwhile, Turkey continues its grim race against time to prepare its diplomatic and defensive options. Will September bring the great conflagration? No-one is sure, but the way things are shaping up, if war is not declared, it will be a surprise. Cennet’s training continues – she has already impressed her tutors at S.I.T.H. with her dedication and icy cool disposition.
Later that day, there is a major shock: a Nazi-Soviet Pact is announced [Ed: it was concluded 28 Aug in OTL, and of course the two foreign ministers who signed in were von Ribbentrop and Molotov]. This is a dangerous development, especially for Poland. For Turkey, it is interesting: if the two blocs vying for our favour have just concluded a pact, then maybe Turkey will be relatively safe for a while. But it won’t affect the UGNR’s worst-case scenario preparations.
And quicker than even I predicted. I am surprised that turkey has not been sent a similar offer, just to show that the Nazis were at least planning on dealing with the western front first before dealing with the eastern front. Especially as Italy and turkey have a surprisingly robust friendship inuniverse despite all the plots and assassination and stuff.
Germany mobilises, just two days after the declaration of their pact with the Soviets. This is worrying enough, but would have been more inflammatory had not both Poland and France already mobilised some weeks back. Still, it adds plenty of fuel to the fire and indicates they will be ready to do whatever Hitler wants to in only a few more weeks.
Right...well the war is coming right on time then. Never mind, hopefully the eastern front won't happen for another year. Turkey needs time to build up as many defences as possible.
A few brave souls, “just for form’s sake, of course, purely as Devil’s Advocate”, argue that the opportunity presented by the Axis campaign and their apparent growing power on Turkey’s doorstep means another viable alternative has emerged.
Revenge on the Western Powers and reclamation of the lands of the old Ottoman Empire: Iraq, Syria, Palestine, the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt – perhaps even western India!
This...is the only good point the axis can offer that the allies and soviets cant. They need the Middle East to be under a friendly power and someone they trust to be in charge of Palestine in particular. Since the Italians presumably get Africa and germnay Europe, handing the Middle East back to a resurgent facist empire seems like a reasonable idea. But...even before the war it was clear that the French and the British were getting sick of the Middle East and the vast oil reserves there hadn't been discovered yet so turkey might well expect the war weary allies to hand over their protectorates to them (doesn't have to be what would really happen, but something the Turkish would plausibly think). Plus the soviets and the Turks could easily just take their empire back whilst invading Western Europe. I doubt Stalin would be much interested in that particular area or Africa in general.
This was not welcome news for the Italians, who were unprepared for war and do not think that the Axis powers would fare well if Britain and France came to the aid of Poland.
Hmm...an indication that the Italians are worried that this will burst into a massive war that they, the Italians, can't hope to get much out of. And that's quite true, as Hungary is weaker and has no easy places to expand into, Italy has their hands full fighting for north Africa and possibly a large Turkish empire whilst Germany must fight France, Poland and Britain to the negotiating table whilst watching the soviets very carefully. Sounds so improbable without hindsight.
Stalin supposedly said the war among the Western powers should go on as long as possible so all belligerents would be weakened, creating an ideal opportunity for Soviet expansion. If true, this sounds like an excellent plan! Where do we sign up?
If his plan is a war of attrition, Russia and the British can certainly win that and even better, such losses would be unacceptable to the UK and force them to negotiate if the red army then showed up at their door.
The Germans (via a neutral contact of Hermann Göring’s, the Swedish businessman Birger Dahlerus) have been feverishly working ‘back channels’ with the British
...so, germanynthinks they can beat France and the rest of the allies but not the Uk? Or perhaps they think they can but don't really want to what with Hitler's love of Britain and the fact they are planning on attacking russia already?
Either way, this should be of great interest to turkey.
The GRU has taken note of the diplomatic direction Turkey is headed, and those who need to know in the Soviet Union, including SkitalecS3 and Stalin himself, are drinking champagne right now...
(Secret project "Turkey Talking" allows us to know everything that happens in Turkey, I will say no more, only that it's a "pAARadox"...)
Best of luck in the wars ahead, except with Mother Russia you don't need luck, only endless amounts of manpower and a total disregard for casualty numbers. (maybe you might need some luck after all...)
The Soviet Union also has 'Black Soil' in the Ukraine, when you get close to the Comintern, that will boost your manpower, the German's don't have that... not yet anyway... maybe thanks to Turkey's Glorious something or other, they never will.
I would comment more in detail, but TheButterlyComposer already does that so well and quickly, I usually don't have much to add, congrats to the TheButterlyComposer for saying what I want to say and more before I even know I want to say it yet.
The GRU has taken note of the diplomatic direction Turkey is headed, and those who need to know in the Soviet Union, including SkitalecS3 and Stalin himself, are drinking champagne right now...
(Secret project "Turkey Talking" allows us to know everything that happens in Turkey, I will say no more, only that it's a "pAARadox"...)
Best of luck in the wars ahead, except with Mother Russia you don't need luck, only endless amounts of manpower and a total disregard for casualty numbers. (maybe you might need some luck after all...)
The Soviet Union also has 'Black Soil' in the Ukraine, when you get close to the Comintern, that will boost your manpower, the German's don't have that... not yet anyway... maybe thanks to Turkey's Glorious something or other, they never will.
I would comment more in detail, but TheButterlyComposer already does that so well and quickly, I usually don't have much to add, congrats to the TheButterlyComposer for saying what I want to say and more before I even know I want to say it yet.
It's a talent. Though I try to cut back on it in @coz1 works because everyone wants to do it there (and very well in fact). Here it seems like we have forever to plan for as many scenarios as possible but I expect the game to derail them very quickly. This AAR's been good for that so far. Who could have guessed Japan for example would be the thorn in the side of a resurgent Turkish empire in the late thirties?
I'm curious how Bullfilter intends to actually participate in the war, once Turkey is inextricably drawn in, with his very limited manpower and number of divisions - plus the need to maintain garrisons in some of the more, hmm, querulous Republics. Of course, the AAR will remain transfixing regardless, as the recent series of posts in the middle of an otherwise-boring peacetime period clearly show, but it does seem to me that having one's troops camping out on the Calistar Line is a rather boring way to play a game.
Along those lines...we still have that Romanian puppet state and all of their armies, so perhaps a more offensive stance would be advisable - once Germany foolishly declares war on our future Comintern allies, we can strike them from below and throw their entire strategy into so much chaos and dust! Glorious German blood for the Glorious National Republic!
Right...well the war is coming right on time then. Never mind, hopefully the eastern front won't happen for another year. Turkey needs time to build up as many defences as possible.
Possibly as many as almost two if Barbarossa comes around June 1941. Next objective will be to start building some counter-attacking forces for the great proletarian liberation of Europe!
If his plan is a war of attrition, Russia and the British can certainly win that and even better, such losses would be unacceptable to the UK and force them to negotiate if the red army then showed up at their door.
At the moment, attrition is what I'm banking on in the east. More below, but the initial plan is to bleed the Axis on our defensive lines then, if that looks like holding, prepare the forces necessary for the counter attack.
...so, germany thinks they can beat France and the rest of the allies but not the Uk? Or perhaps they think they can but don't really want to what with Hitler's love of Britain and the fact they are planning on attacking russia already?
Yes, I think both of those. Or perhaps (like Rudolph Hess's later bizarre freelancing) they are a bunch of dysfunctional nutbags going off on their own uncoordinated and narcissistic tangents!
The GRU has taken note of the diplomatic direction Turkey is headed, and those who need to know in the Soviet Union, including SkitalecS3 and Stalin himself, are drinking champagne right now...
(Secret project "Turkey Talking" allows us to know everything that happens in Turkey, I will say no more, only that it's a "pAARadox"...)
Best of luck in the wars ahead, except with Mother Russia you don't need luck, only endless amounts of manpower and a total disregard for casualty numbers. (maybe you might need some luck after all...)
Yes, agree there, though I hope the twist I've introduced can make the difference required. Defending the Bosphorus is all well and good, but if the Germans come through the Caucasus, the Japanese via India and the Italians through Egypt, I'll be toast!
The Soviet Union also has 'Black Soil' in the Ukraine, when you get close to the Comintern, that will boost your manpower, the German's don't have that... not yet anyway... maybe thanks to Turkey's Glorious something or other, they never will.
My general plan is to bleed the Germans, hope the Soviets survive and hopefully roll back the Germans early (compared to OTL), then be positioned to pounce on any weaknesses when the moment comes.
I would comment more in detail, but TheButterlyComposer already does that so well and quickly, I usually don't have much to add, congrats to the TheButterlyComposer for saying what I want to say and more before I even know I want to say it yet.
Don't sell yourself short, though TBC is a remarkably prompt, comprehensive and insightful commentator. But variety is the spice of life, so please feel free to weigh in with 'alternate views'! Unlike the in -game Turkey, the forum press in fully free
I'm curious how Bullfilter intends to actually participate in the war, once Turkey is inextricably drawn in, with his very limited manpower and number of divisions - plus the need to maintain garrisons in some of the more, hmm, querulous Republics.
At the moment, I'm waiting to see at what point and how I might join in. Like the premise for this story, it's fluid and could come in a range of ways.
Simplest, the Axis may just attack me early, before I can secure the Soviets as allies: then, it's a desperate fight for survival rather like Britain's in OTL. Except the Bosphorus/Dardanelles is narrower than the English Channel and Istanbul is on the wrong side of it! Hence the current dispositions and building program.
Or maybe I will be able to join the Comintern AND decide to do so before Barbarossa: then I'm assuming the initial onslaught would be too much to fight up front without the risk of being destroyed and suffering too many casualties for my very limited MP to cope with. So, similar response as for the first scenario.
Perhaps either I will not yet be able to join the Comintern by the time the Soviets are attacked, or the Cabinet decides to be a bit sneaky and holds off joining in advance, waiting to see what happens in the East and elsewhere. Maybe a stab in the back from advanced positions in the Balkans, with Germany and Italy heavily committed elsewhere. Especially if it looked like the Russians were in big trouble and needed something bold to rescue them. Risky, but maybe could strike, cause some quick damage, then SR back to safe defensive positions before it turns sour. Stuff up the AI's Russian campaign by confusing it, then join our Russian comrades for the big fightback.
Or maybe we might declare on the Axis, especially if we saw an opportunity to (say) grab Syria from a filthy collaborationist Vichy government. Unlikely, but you never know what circumstances may arise. Many options, all in play, strategic opportunities and risks in all of them!
On manpower, I'll keep doing what I can in game to conserve and improve it, but I accepted that (perhaps artificially low) MP restriction (LS too for that matter) as my handicap for the game I'd chosen. I may also be able to attract some expeditionary forces later too, though I understand that can also impose a reinforcement burden that would stretch MP and supply reserves, even if the units are 'free'. And I'm not losing sight of mine being a supporting role, I'm not going to be conquering the world on my own, I suspect.
Of course, the AAR will remain transfixing regardless, as the recent series of posts in the middle of an otherwise-boring peacetime period clearly show, but it does seem to me that having one's troops camping out on the Calistar Line is a rather boring way to play a game.
Thank you! Storyline and some proper reporting of the big allied campaigns to come are designed to keep the narrative snappy and eventful. And a wait until 1941 is common to US and Soviet AARs too. I will just make/keep the chapter time coverage longer if necessary (or make the reports shorter again as with the last couple) to adjust.
As to a defensive battle: having in a previous game managed to halt the Germans in northern France but only by desperate defensive actions and an extension of the Maginot Line WW1 style ... it would have made for a good AAR commentary! As for the subsequent glorious counter-attack and conquest of Germany Also, per the points above, just because I have the Calistar Line and may spend some time behind, doesn't mean I will stay there. Remember the five wars of conquest and offensive spirit of R.A.W. Our brave Turkish generals will always yearn for the days of the attack, if given the chance. Patience first, cold revenge and hot victory later! Huzzah!
Along those lines...we still have that Romanian puppet state and all of their armies, so perhaps a more offensive stance would be advisable - once Germany foolishly declares war on our future Comintern allies, we can strike them from below and throw their entire strategy into so much chaos and dust! Glorious German blood for the Glorious National Republic!
I'm hoping the Romanians can be more than a speed bump for German and Hungarian Fascists, but if they must make a gallant sacrifice for the greater good, then alas it must be so. But having them fight against Germany rather than for them is in itself a major benefit, I think.
The no tag pledge is basically about in game play or forcing a cheesy decision, etc. I will still intervene if I necessary to maintain the integrity of the game and narrative concept. So, right toward the start, when the 'prepare for war' effect ran out before Turkey was anywhere near close enough to lower neutrality to declare on anyone for years, I just extended it until I was close enough that a little espionage to increase threat would do the rest. I hadn't realised in advance it would just stop after six months and it didn't seem logical that a government would not just keep going with such a decision if they were hell bent on doing it.
So, this can be considered the Cabinet debate - you can see which way it may be leaning, but maybe there are others out there with arguments in favour of morphing the great Turkish project into the previously hinted Union of Glorious National Socialist Republics?
Hmm, It seems to me there is no debate (in this cabinet), so I'll raise the stakes. (well, give it my best weak effort)
A very hush-hush Swiss intel-agency is a close-knit group (one guy) that forecasts two things.
1. The first is, he's (alias Basil Zurich Bremen) heard many reports that Polish partisans are very numerous and well organized. His "war-model" (no it's not a She...or He for that matter) predicts that the German Government will have extreme difficulty advancing very far into the SU, if an entity far larger than the Polish-partisan-revolt model adds its weight on the Soviet-side.
2. But more important; friends, family and followers of the now dead Turkish visionary will be furious at taking "the new Republic" created by their former leader and handing all that effort over to Comrade Stalin as fodder for his own strategic ends. To these nationalists, that strategy sounds more the current Anglo-American discussion of, I'll keep it very tame...strange bed-fellows. This large group trusts no other nation and are not anxious to likely jeopardize Turkey's hard won independence by joining any organisation led elsewhere. Surely the new President cannot abide such a...reversal.
Agent BZB quickly flew home to his safe-roost in the Alps.
Ooo...I hadn't thought of that. Risky and ballsy it would be, but also really really cool. We should do it if at all possible. Can you imagine Hitler's face? Won France but just lost all their territory with oil in it!
Edit: of course there's no debate in cabinet. It's not a democracy after all.
TBC, there's always healthy debate here in the forum, at least . And there's debate permitted in the TT Turkish Cabinet of 1939 - just no voting or democracy . So far no-one has been sacked or purged for expressing an alternate opinion - though like the author of an AAR, Inonu certainly runs a 'democracy of one' .
A short but telling teaser for the next update, already in production: "Achtung! Panzer! Stuka, Stuka!"
