Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[diskoerekto]

Having remained neutral throughout the war, China’s diplomatic relations were cordial to friendly with the key major powers they had most cause to engage with and the other Chinese states that existed at the time.

If Sinkiang isn't run by the Chinese, they would change their names to East Turkestan

my family is scared but safe, we are praying for an unaccounted for friend still under rubble of a hotel

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

If Sinkiang isn't run by the Chinese, they would change their names to East Turkestan

A pro of having several Chinese successor states is that the Soviets can make some puppets. The big negative is that it makes Asia a lot more chaotic and 'open' to outside influence than OTL...though the US don't seem to be bothering yet, the Japanese are actively hostile and the only other power there is us so...not looking too bad right now.

my family is scared but safe, we are praying for an unaccounted for friend still under rubble of a hotel

Not heard anything from my peeps. Given the state of things though, not sure how stable international telecoms is.

Good to hear you're all alright so far...

 

[Bullfilter]

As the next chapter is now done, I'll do the traditional comment feedback.

Spoiler: Earthquake

I've left our earthquake-related comments separate and standing on their own, as I don't want to be too 'triggering' there, while still hoping and praying for the best but seeing how devastating it has been.

New bait to dangle in front of Ho Chi Min...the comintern has no problem fighting Japan to get Mongolia and Northern Vietnam back.

A few baits dangling there ... and Uncle Ho at this stage stage will take any help he can get. I think a Japanese-'assistance of the local regime' (ie occupation) could be a lot nastier, more brutal and isolating for the Viet Minh than the post-war French one in OTL.

Japan has land to lose, before its postwar shape emerges. Wonderful update.

They do indeed and there will also be a backdrop of domestic politics and international relations for them to factor in. Plus, in the absence of much natural resource motives, how much do they want to pay in blood and treasure for some of the more hotly contested lands they either occupy or support puppet governments within the Co-Prosperity Sphere? Some more than others.

This does make a lot of sense given substantial parts of China are controlled by the Japanese in TTL. Another alliance of convenience. The enemy of my enemy is my friend... for now.

It's a very different situation to OTL 1946 in China. Both sides are trying to establish their base for future operations, in different ways but to the same ultimate ends. Any accommodations will surely be temporary and if opportunity calls for one to act against the other, they almost certainly will.

Yes, that does change things, doesn't it? Chiang and China have enjoyed many years of peace while the world was on fire all around them. The annexation of the Guangxi, Yunnan and Ma cliques is a job well done.

For Chiang, this is just Stage One, of course!

It's good to see this fascinating multi-polar world continue to evolve. Hopefully we end up with some form of post-war settlement that is reasonably stable and we don't end up on a trajectory towards a new world war!

Still a very fluid world situation. While most will probably attempt to avoid world war, the chance of smaller ones and larger regional wars remains as great or greater than it did in OTL. Withouit, as yet, the increased tensions of a genuine bi-polar Cold War nor nuclear weapons.

Excellent! I really didn't expect Japan to embrace real political reform of this nature.

They've decided to try treading a delicate path, with incremental reform at home and careful realpolitik internationally. But the difficult legacy of their wartime conquests and the resulting tensions and hotspots are a wicked problem for them. Getting Turkish oil will help one aspect (though leaving them vulnerable to trade interdiction), but can they afford (militarily, politically and diplomatically) to bleed themselves to death in a series of Asian Land Wars? Can they extricate themselves without triggering a military backlash and possible coup? I don't know yet, so the future remains uncertain.

Fair enough. They are inventing a new system, so why not?

Exactly.

This seems to achieve three important objectives. It creates a solid, well-founded government with a clear majority, it keeps the powerful military on-side, and it provides for the on-going realignment towards the West.

This is their thinking exactly. Easier to walk that tightrope if you're at least balanced.

That was unfortunate! Ho Chi Minh's new democratic legitimacy might make it a little more awkward for Dewey to throw him under the bus. However, from a pragmatic point of view, relations with Japan are more important.

This is one of a number of very tricky problems, but also bargaining chips the two sides have to consider. Does Japan trade Vietnam away for good will and a concession somewhere else? Or does it seek a 'green light' to act in Vietnam (from the US, anyway) and trade something else away? The US will face the same questions, and none of it will be happening in a vacuum, either.

Yes, I think Japan has enough hard military power to keep the situation in check, for the time being anyway.

Well chosen words - "for the time being". That story has a way to go and a number of outcomes are possible.

The US isolationist government are playing a dangerous game by appeasing Japan just so they cab ignore Asia and the Pacific.

I think they are more cautious and aloof than isolationist. There are isolationist elements, for sure, but it isn't a dominant policy setting yet. There will be more on the development of that debate within the Republican Party and Dewey administration in the next update. Would it be appeasing Japan, or bargaining to gain quid pro quo concessions they can only really expect to get by negotiation? Hmmm ...

South Vietnam is now definitely going to fall under the Comintern influence, and since Japan is not going to be able to hold the north, that's the whole country gone eventually.

Is this a given re the south? The Comintern is really turning into the warsaw Pact in practical terms, with the US out now and Turkey really heading on its Third Way, trying to be friends with everybody as it tries to consume that very large meal they wolfed down in Geneva.

And China being sold under for Japan (don't care what the game says, relationship between the various Chinese governments and Japan are never, ever going to be 'warming' with Hirohito and Co still in China) is really dumb, and quite nasty to boot. Japan can't long term win that one either, and in the meanwhile the Soviets can work on turning as many of the opposition communist and socialist.

China aren't being sold under here at all - in fact, Chiang has secured US backing for his expansion plans and the US will be interceding with Japan on his behalf. With a serious Communist insurgency in occupied China and parts of Manchukuo, this will be one of the big strategic decisions Japan has to make in coming months. What do they try to hold onto, which bedfellows (if any) might they choose and how will things go on the ground? All in flux for now.

From the looks of things, unless Japan has nukes or something, we're looking at them losing the entire continental empire and system they have within two decades, and now the only people supporting the fight against them are Russian and French.

See next update re world nuclear developments. As to their occupied lands, per above comment feedback, much (though not necessarily all) is indeed under significant threat. And then their is their whole future approach to both directly occupied land and puppet countries: will they try to hang on to it all (militarist-imperialist approach), divest themselves of much of it or let puppets start to self-determine (post-imperialism/colonialism) or some kind of hybrid approach?

The US made an okay ish short term decision but have compeltly effed up their long term hopes and projections into Asia.

They are very kind of hesitant and a bit timid, in my current mind's eye. Jury still out as to whether their future strategic position will be any good: for now, they seem rather unsure of what their long term objectives actually are. And whether they want to project into Asia at all. Very much unlike OTL, where the situation was different, the choices more obvious - if not necessarily good - and they had the power and position to do much more. Let alone the willpower too. They don't have nearly that military clout, diplomatic influence or indeed strategic confidence in TTL. They may currently wish to back local winners for more limited objectives rather than project at all. What they really need to do is develop some clearer strategic thinking. Perhaps they need some kind of Dewey Doctrine and a strategic vision? Not certain they'll get either, though.

The greatest and best heavy focus.

This will come as a surprise to many who don't know what they're talking about are unfamiliar with the surprisingly complex Japan-China relations prior to the Second Sino-Japanese War (OTL) and subsequent Communist takeover, but "businesslike" is an apt description for the normal state of affairs. Prior to 1937, Japan was occupying Manchuria and aggressing into Inner Mongolia while simultaneously designing and building cruisers for the ROC Navy.

It's not too different a story from the Centry of Humiliation and European colonial era, really. China is just too big, fractured, and heterogeneous to maintain a united stand against outsiders (prior to 1949, OTL), there will always be many willing to collaborate for business purposes or worse if they stand to gain from it.

Interesting points and very much in the zeitgeist of the current TTL situation. The two mutually opposed forces of fragmentation and consolidation are vying with each other in China and Asia more generally. And then, there may be more than one point of power if/when that consolidation ripens. Then we get irresistible force v immovable object!

On 15 April Chaing and Mao launched all-out offensives, each against the territory of the other, probably.

Hehe. Not this time. Yet. Each are frying other fish. But surely a clash is inevitable?

If Xinjiang and Tibet remain at least nominally independent through this ATL it is an improvement in at least one way, no matter what El Pip says.

Their fate will likely be determined by who (if anyone) prevails in the prospective Chiang v Mao death match.

Nothing too dramatic here, I'd say. With a parliamentary system you'll usually always have these coalition governments but it looks like there is not going to be a sharp cultural shift anytime soon in Japan. Domestic stability, contrary to Soviet opinion, remains excellent.

My choosing of a proportional representation system for this election also increases the likelihood of coalitions. Whether there may be a new constitution further down the track and a change to the electoral system remains up in the air. Unless of course a reactionary military coup renders it all moot!

I suspect the actual hardest sticking point will be the proposed naval restrictions, even if in practice Japan cannot hope to match the USN they will not want to be told again that they are not allowed to try. The lesson which should be learned from the Washington/London treaties is to just leave well enough alone and aim for cooperation rather than repression.

This will be a major negotiation point. Perhaps the US have suggested it as part of an ambit claim? Create an artificial bargaining chip to use later? But in TTL, they are worried, as they never conducted the great naval building program as happ[ened in OTL, so are generally worries.

In TTL, the Japanese lost a lot of their navy in the battle against the Royal (in particular) and French navies, but retained the core of their carrier forces and became battle hardened. Each side has weaknesses here they will both try to conceal from the other, but also motivations to limit a naval arms race in the Pacific. Japan certainly can't afford one now and it probably no longer suits their maritime strategic objectives, which at sea will be more about securing sea lanes, bolstering the Co-Prosperity Sphere and especially protecting the developing Middle East oil trade (best dome diplomatically, really).

It would be funny to see the CIA support the communists and then immediately turn around and depose them for some right-wing authoritarian if it wasn't so depressingly true in OTL.

hehe. Would never happen, would it?

If Sinkiang isn't run by the Chinese, they would change their names to East Turkestan

Nice.

A pro of having several Chinese successor states is that the Soviets can make some puppets. The big negative is that it makes Asia a lot more chaotic and 'open' to outside influence than OTL...though the US don't seem to be bothering yet, the Japanese are actively hostile and the only other power there is us so...not looking too bad right now.

Sinkiang is their most likely prospect for now - a client at least, if not a puppet. They are definitely doing their best to infiltrate Korea, especially in the north and supporting Mao. Though if he wins, it isn't necessarily plain sailing for Soviet-PRC relations, as OTL showed only too vividly. And Stalin naturally wants to see Mongolia reunited and under Soviet influence.

The US is now starting to engage with both China and Japan (though early days yet and rather tentative) and have already been intervening in Vietnam and haven't forgotten about the Philippines either: how could they with MacArthur wielding so much American Caesar influence at the moment! The US arc in Asia is still far from clear.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 252: The Rest of the World – January to June 1946

​

LN & Global Issues

The first meeting of the League of Nations General Assembly (LNGA) since the adoption of the New Charter convened on 10 January 1946. Delegates from 51 nations met in Geneva. In secret voting for President of the LNGA, Paul-Henri Spaak of Belgium won the post, 28–23, over Trygve Lie of Norway.

A week later, the League of Nations Security Council (LNSC) held its first formal session with representatives from the five permanent members (the United States, the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, Turkey and Japan), each of which had veto power. The first six non-permanent members, whose membership would change from year to year. The first rotating spots were occupied by Australia, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, the Netherlands and Poland.

On 24 January LN Resolution 1946-1, the first resolution of the post-war LNGA, created the League of Nations Atomic Energy Commission (LNAEC) as an official LN body. The LNAEC was to seek "to prevent the creation of atomic weapons and of all other weapons adaptable to mass destruction".

​

Trygve Lie was appointed as the next Secretary General of the League of Nations by unanimous vote of the Security Council on 29 January, allowing the retirement of the wartime LN leader Seán Lester, who had held office since August 1940. The distinguished former Irish diplomat and helmsman for the Geneva Peace Conference of 1944 would hand his office over to Lie on 18 April and then retire to County Galway in the west of Ireland.

Retiring SECGEN LN Seán Lester (centre, head of the table) chairs a meeting with LN officials to arrange the handover of duties to his successor, Trygve Lie of Norway.

Trygve Halvdan Lie (b. 16 July 1896) was a Norwegian politician, labour leader, government official and author. He served as Norwegian foreign minister during the critical years of the Norwegian government’s successful defiance of Nazi Germany during GW2 from 1940 to 1944.​

The Baruch Plan was a proposal by the United States government to the LNAEC during in June 1946. The United States, Great Britain and Canada had called for an international organisation to regulate atomic energy. Baruch's proposal was rejected by the Soviet Union, who privately feared the plan would curtail the Soviet’s lead (via captured German nuclear scientists) in nuclear technology and atomic weapon development.

Andrei Gromyko, the Soviet Union's representative at the LN, submitted a response to the Baruch Plan (proposed by the United States six days earlier), with a disarmament plan of his own. The Soviet proposal was that the world's nations ratify a treaty pledging not to build nuclear weapons.

Andrei Andreyevich Gromyko (b. 18 July 1909), Soviet communist politician and diplomat, Soviet Permanent Representative to the LN from April 1946.​

If a plan could not be agreed, it could lead to the beginning of a nuclear arms race. Not fully appreciated by the Soviets at the time, the American and British security services had begun to thoroughly penetrate the German-Soviet nuclear program, even as Stalin was doing the same to their somewhat less advanced programs.

The World Bank (officially the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) began operations on 25 June.

With nuclear development still shrouded in mystery pending the conclusion of a formal, binding and verifiable agreement in the LNAEC, the details below of where national atomic programs had progressed to in mid-1946 is provided as background to modern readers from since declassified documents and reports.

​

The German-Soviet program had outstripped all others at this time. They were estimated to be within just a few days of having the theoretical knowledge to build a nuclear weapon. The UK was not too far behind, while the US program was lagging, nuclear research having been temporarily suspended due to budget cuts [er HOI3 tech AI mumble mumble]. The USSR had also suspended its own program, investing its scientists and funds into the German program.

Turkey was now pursuing a program of its own, assessed to be around 2-3 steps behind the Germans, having obtained a fair number of their scientists in between the end of German resistance in May 1944 and the handing over of Germany to Soviet control after Geneva in November. Japan, arriving late to the party, was reported to be just beginning its own early theoretical research [these latter two are now narrative, rather than game-based positions and the rest will be after the end of 1946].

S.I.T.H. Chief Cennet Kavgaci, reputedly in charge of Turkey’s recruitment program for German nuclear and rocket scientists. Rumours later emerged that many were given offers “they could not refuse”.​

Otto Hahn was a German chemist who was a pioneer in the fields of radioactivity and radiochemistry. He is referred to as the father of nuclear chemistry and father of nuclear fission. Hahn and Lise Meitner discovered radioactive isotopes of radium, thorium, protactinium and uranium. He also discovered the phenomena of atomic recoil and nuclear isomerism, and pioneered rubidium–strontium dating. In 1938, Hahn, Lise Meitner and Fritz Strassmann discovered nuclear fission, for which Hahn received the 1944 Nobel Prize for Chemistry – even while under house arrest under the Turkish occupation authority. Nuclear fission was the basis for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons.

Otto Hahn (b. 8 March 1879), pioneering nuclear scientist and eventual head of the Turkish nuclear program.​

After working on the German nuclear program during GW2, Hahn and a number of his colleagues were encouraged to defect to Turkey in October 1944, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was likely to be given control of Germany after the Geneva Conference. With his notes, his German colleagues and support from the Turkish government, Hahn resumed his research and eventually became head of Turkish nuclear development, which by mid-1946 had begun to make good progress on the basic building blocks of atomic theory.

---xxx---​

US & Canada

By US presidential directive, on 22 January 1946 Thomas Dewey created the post of Director of Central Intelligence and established the Central Intelligence Group, predecessor to the CIA. RADM Sidney Souers was appointed to the post the following day.

Rear Admiral Sidney Souers (b. March 30, 1892) was appointed as the first Director of Central Intelligence on 23 January 1946.​

The same day Harry Dexter White was nominated by Dewey to be the American representative to the International Monetary Fund, despite a warning from the FBI that White had passed secret information to the Soviet Union. White was confirmed by the Senate on 6 February.

On 15 February 22 current and former Canadian government employees were arrested by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, after Soviet defector Igor Gouzenko had provided a list of 1,700 North American informants who were providing classified information to the Soviet Union. This contributed to a further cooling of relations with the former wartime Comintern partners.

​

"The Long Telegram" was sent from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to the U.S. Department of State on 22 February (in response to a provocative speech by Stalin earlier in the month, see below). It would eventually become the basis of American foreign policy for the Dewey administration. At more than 8,000 words, it was the longest telegraphed message sent to that time.

George F. Kennan and the “Long Telegram”, 22 February 1946.​

The author, George F. Kennan, the chargé d'affaires at the American embassy, was responding to a specific inquiry from the State Department. In summary, Kennan emphasised that the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for long-term peaceful coexistence with the capitalist world and that the best strategy was to “contain” communist expansion around the globe, without going to war.

Spoiler: The Long Telegram

For anyone interested, the full “Long Telegram” can be found here: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/coldwar/documents/episode-1/kennan.htm. Dewey in TTL will probably follow a less robust approach than Truman in OTL, but it will nonetheless gain traction.

U.S. Senator Arthur H. Vandenberg (R) of Michigan publicly further set the tone for the Cold War, in a prominent speech on 27 February (not long after one by Stalin that was seen by many to kick it off, see below) in which he asked the rhetorical question, "What is Russia up to now?", and urged the Dewey Administration to not repeat the previous (Roosevelt) administrations “policy of appeasement toward the Soviets”. Vandenberg was the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. [In OTL he would become its Chairman when the Republican Party won a majority in both houses in the 1946 mid-term elections.]

Senator Arthur Hendrick Vandenberg Sr. (b. 22 March 1884) seen here on the cover of Time Magazine on 30 April 1945. He was by mid-1946 best known for seeking to lead the Republican Party from a foreign policy of isolationism to one of internationalism.​

Arthur H. Vandenberg was a Republican Senator from Michigan who served from 1928. Originally a staunch isolationist, he ultimately came to be one of the leading advocates for U.S. leadership after the Japanese attack on the U.S. in GW2. He worked across party lines to protect U.S. national security interests and promote candid debate on foreign policy. In this period, with the Republican President Dewey dealing with a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, Vandenberg would prove to be a very influential advocate for a more robust U.S. foreign policy.

Spoiler: Vandenberg OTL

In his term as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Vandenberg was the chief legislative architect for the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, and NATO (having drafted the key Vandenberg Resolution that pre-dated its establishment), and participated in the creation of the United Nations. In TTL he will be a similar influence, at odds with Taft’s more isolationist approach within the Republican Party.

Fred Rose, the first and only Communist Party of Canada member of the House of Commons of Canada, was arrested in Ottawa on 14 March on suspicion of espionage, after attending the opening of the new session of Parliament.

Fred Rose.​

The Strategic Air Command and the Tactical Air Command were created as a prelude to the establishment of the United States Air Force on 21 March.

Former President Franklin D. Roosevelt died on 12 April [one year later than in OTL, for no other reason than I missed it in the last US update].

An "all services" honor guard with President Roosevelt's casket in the East Room of the White House, April 14, 1946.

---xxx---​

Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact

Poland nationalised its main industries on 3 January with passage of a law "on taking public ownership of the basic branches of the national economy".

On 9 February, in what has since been described as the beginning of the Cold War, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin addressed a national radio audience in a major public speech reflecting on events since the end of GW2. Stalin said that another war was inevitable because of the "capitalist development of the world economy", and that the USSR would need to concentrate on national defence in advance of a war with the Western nations.

Stalin delivers his ‘Cold War speech’ on 9 February 1946.​

Lavrentiy Beria was elected a full member of the Soviet Communist Party Politburo on 18 March, and then promoted to the Council of Ministers in charge of state security.

Beria (left) and Stalin.​

A round-up of Nazi activists was carried out throughout Germany at the end of March. What was described as "a well-financed attempt to revive Nazism" was foiled after the capture of ringleader Artur Axmann.

The Socialist Unity Party of Germany (Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands or SED), with one million members, was formally on 21 April by the merger of the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party. The SED would govern Germany from then onwards.

In a national referendum conducted on 30 June, voters in Poland were presented with a yes-or-no choice on three issues: abolishing the Senate; supporting nationalisation of industries and land, and conforming the border with the Soviet Union to reflect the loss of lands east of the Odra and Nysa rivers. Official results showed two-thirds approval of all three measures, placing Poland under Communist rule for the foreseeable future under the Polish Workers' Party.

---xxx---​

UGNR and the Bucharest Pact

Charles "Lucky" Luciano, an American Mafia boss, was transported from a New York prison to an ocean liner and deported to his native Italy on 9 February. He was soon being employed as a ‘business consultant’ by the Corleone regime in Southern Italy.

“Lucky” Lucianio lives up to his nickname after being deported to Southern Italy and taking up a new role as a “business consultant” to the government.​

General Draža Mihailović, the Chetnik leader who oversaw the massacre of Bosnians and Croatians during the Nazi occupation of Yugoslavia, was captured by Turkish special forces in a mountain cave near Višegrad on 12 March after two years in hiding. His capture was announced in Belgrade on March 24, and Mihailović would later be executed on July 17.

Draža Mihailović on trial in Belgrade, June 1946.​

Under the supervision of international observers from the USSR, US and UK, the first elections in Greece since 1936 took place on 31 March. A coalition led by the People's Party (the People's Party or Populist Party was a conservative and pro-monarchist Greek political party) won 206 of the 354 seats available in the Greek GNR assembly after polling 55.1% of the vote. Konstantinos Tsaldaris became Chief Minister of the new provincial government. The Communists got 68 seats with about 20% of the vote [in OTL they boycotted] and the rest were shared among other parties or coalitions.

Konstantinos Tsaldaris (b. 14 April 1884), Chief Minister of the Greek GNR after internationally brokered election of 31 March 1946, designed to help bring peace after the recent troubles.​

On 5 April the Soviet Union negotiated a 25-year agreement to create a "Soviet-Persian Oil Company", making it the fourth international partner lining up to ink agreements to help Turkey develop is massive new oil reserves (after the UK, US and Japan). Some joked that despite the burgeoning political disagreements that divided them, it was the beginning of a “P5 Oil Cartel”, with Turkey acting as the moderating partner and economic crossroad for competing post-war great power interests.

During the first half of 1946, İnönü's government continued to organise multi-party elections. The first post-war election of the new multi-party era would be held on 21 July 1946. İnönü's CHP and Celal Bayar's opposition Democrats would be the two main participants. A multiple non-transferable vote electoral system would be used, in which voters elect several representatives at once, with each voter having more than one vote. This election would be held on the basis of open voting, secret counting and a majority system. Due to these irregularities, it was already being been referred to as a "fraudulent system" designed to favour the incumbent government. [Hardly a surprise at this stage, really!]

---xxx---​

France

The Constituent Assembly of France voted 309–249 on 19 April to approve a new Constitution for what would be called the "French Fourth Republic", subject to approval at a referendum set for May 5. The Communists and Socialists wanted a unicameral legislature to replace the existing Senate and Chamber of Deputies. But the Giraudist-Conservative coalition in the provisional Constituent Assembly pushed through a proposal which would retain a popularly elected President but with largely symbolic powers other than remaining the Commander -in-Chief, a Prime Minister who wielded most of the executive power and a lower (National Assembly) and upper (Council of the Republic) house. A revival of monarchism was not on the agenda, despite the quixotic views of many members of the majority Action Française.

Front page of the French newspaper "Franc-Tireur" from 20 April 1946, announcing the approval of the proposition to be put at the 5 May referendum.​

The vote on 5 May saw the proposed new Giraudist constitution for the Fourth Republic, adopted by a narrow vote (53.2% yes, 46.8% no, invalid 1.85%).

The provisional count in the 5 May referendum in France: by that night, the overall result was a narrow but clear ‘Yes’.​

Spoiler: OTL Results

In OTL, the process was not so simple. The constitutional referendum held on 5 May 1946 was for a draft Constitution supported by the (governing) Communists and the Socialists, approved by the Constituent Assembly on 19 April 1946. It concentrated power in a unicameral Assembly and abolished the Senate of France.

Moderates, Radicals, and the Popular Republican Movement (MRP) campaigned against the referendum. The "No" coalition warned the voters against the danger of a "dictatorship" of an Assembly dominated by the Marxists, which could question the existence of private property. In the "Yes" coalition, the SFIO refused the Communist proposition of a common campaign. The draft Constitution was rejected by 52.8% of voters, with a turnout of 79.6%.

As a result of the vote, the Constituent Assembly elected in 1945 was dissolved and fresh elections for a new Constituent Assembly were held on 2 June 1946. This second Constituent Assembly adopted a different draft Constitution which was submitted to the French people in the referendum of 13 October 1946. It was the one I’ve adopted in TTL with a bi-cameral legislature.

Unlike the May referendum, which saw a previous constitutional proposal rejected, the new Constitution of 27 October 1946 was accepted by 53.2% of voters and brought the Fourth Republic into existence. I decided to bypass the Leftist OTL plan, due to the different election outcome in 1945, and go straight to this one in TTL. No percentage dice deployed this time!

On 28 May the United States made a loan package to France for a record US$1.37 billion.

On 2 June, the campaign was launched for presidential and legislative elections under the new Fourth Republic constitution, with the ballot to be held on 2 July 1946.

General Henri Giraud, still provisional President of France in June 1946, remained a powerful political force in a divided post-war nation and with the adoption of the new constitution was considered the ‘Father of the Fourth Republic’. He would stand for election as President in the July 1946 elections.

---xxx---​

United Kingdom

The Attlee Labour government nationalised the Bank of England on 14 February, with the signing of a 250-page bill by King George VI.

Following the prominent ‘Cold War’ speeches of Stalin and Vandenburg in February, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill delivered his famous "Iron Curtain" speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri on 5 March. He was accompanied by former U.S. Vice Presidential candidate Harry S. Truman. In the speech – which was entitled "The Sinews of Peace" – Churchill surprised the world with his attack on the spread of Soviet Communism.

Churchill delivers his “Iron Curtain Speech” at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri on 5 March 1946.​

Churchill said: "From Denmark in the Baltic to the Swiss border and across Germany to Poland, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent." He pointedly did not include the UGNR in this. The metaphor of an iron curtain (used at theatres for fire protection) to refer to sealing off a conquered area was not invented by Churchill, nor did he first use it at Westminster College, but it became a part of international discourse from this point. The speech was of course made in a personal capacity and was not official British policy but was very widely reported.

On 1 April, the United Kingdom dissolved the Straits Settlements, making Singapore a Crown colony and separating its predominantly Chinese population from the rest of the Union of Malaya.

John Maynard Keynes, the British economist for whom Keynesian economics was named, died on 21 April at the age of 62. The new IMF would have to go on without one of its founding thinkers to guide it from the British perspective.

---xxx---​

Middle East

In a policy of preventing Jewish immigration to Palestine, British authorities on 17 February intercepted the ship Enzo Sereni, with 915 refugees on board. The Zionist group Palmach retaliated three days later with the destruction of a British Coast Guard station.

The United Kingdom and the Emirate of Transjordan signed the Treaty of London on 22 March, giving Transjordan its independence while Britain would continue to maintain military bases in the country.

​

On 20 April the Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry issued its recommendations on the future of Palestine, including allowing up to 100,000 Jewish refugees from Europe to be resettled in the area, but barring a Jewish state.

In a 14-minute ceremony at Amman, on 25 May the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan (referred to as the Kingdom of Transjordan until 1949) won its full independence from the United Kingdom. Before a crowd of 300,000 witnesses, the Emir Abdullah became the nation's King.

King Abdullah declaring the end of the British Mandate and the independence of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, 25 May 1946.​

British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin declared that the United Kingdom would reject the unanimous recommendation of the Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry that up to 100,000 European Jews be allowed to immigrate to Palestine. Speaking at the annual conference of Britain's Labour Party, Bevin commented provocatively that the motive for American support for a Jewish state was "because they did not want too many of them in New York." Following the rejection of the proposal, Zionist leaders began a campaign of violence against the British government in the future state of Israel.

In response, the "Night of the Bridges" took place on the night of 16-17 June as agents of the Palmach, a strike force of the Zionist group Haganah, destroyed eleven highway and railway bridges in Palestine.

As the situation continued to escalate, on 29 June the British Army oversaw "Operation Agatha" in Palestine, arresting 2,700 suspected Jewish terrorists in retaliation of the destruction of 11 bridges two weeks earlier. The Haganah escalated terror attacks in response.

---xxx---​

India

India in 1946.​

The results of the first provincial election in India were certified on 28 March 1946. Over a four-month period, voting was conducted for the Provincial Assemblies in each of the eleven provinces of British India. The Congress Party formed the majority in the legislatures for Bombay, Madras, the United Provinces, Bihar and Orissa, the Central Provinces, Assam and the North West Frontier; while the Muslim League won power in Bengal, the Punjab and the Sind. Princely states did not participate in this first poll.

​

On 13 April, British Prime Minister Clement Attlee authorised Sir Stafford Cripps, the leader of the British Mission to British India, to informally suggest the idea of the partition of the former colony into separate nations to the various major political groupings in the former Raj. Under this plan the predominantly Hindu provinces would become the Commonwealth of India, while the mostly Muslim provinces would become Pakistan (in the east based on Bengal). It was well received by the Muslim League, but not the Hindu majority as represented mainly by the Congress Party.

In negotiations during May, the Congress leaders rejected a Muslim League proposal for an independent State of Pakistan. A six-point plan for a Federal Union of India included a provision that legislation would have to be approved by a majority of both the Hindu legislators and the Muslim legislators. Opinion remained deadlocked through June 1946, with no national settlement or constitution yet agreed.

---xxx---​

Indonesia

With British assistance, the Dutch landed their Netherlands Indies Civil Administration (NICA) forces in Jakarta and other key centres. Republican sources reported 8,000 deaths up to January 1946 in the defence of Jakarta, but they could not hold the city.

Dutch soldiers in Indonesia, January 1946.​

Tentara Republik Indonesia (Armed Forces of the Republic of Indonesia) or TRI evacuated Indonesian citizens from the city of Bandung, West Java on 23 March. In an operation called "bumihangus" or "scorched earth", TRI and over 200,000 civilians purposely burned their homes in an attempt to prevent Allied forces and the NICA from being able to easily set up an army base there.

On 9 April Angkatan Udara Republik Indonesia (AURI), the Indonesian Air Force, was formally established, drawing primarily from a fleet of about 50 old Japanese aircraft left behind after they withdrew from those parts of the D.I.E. they had occupied under the terms of the Geneva Treaty.

To this point, no foreign nation was offering direct support for Indonesian independence, though elements (though coming from very different perspectives) were starting to consider political support including the UGNR (as the self-appointed leaders of the Muslim world), the Soviets, Japan and the US.

---xxx---​

Endnote: the next chapter will be a shorter ‘bonus material’ update of where the AI took the war from January-June 1946. An alternate-alternate history of what might have been had I taken the game further on. And it would have been a very different world to the one were are now in. Significantly closer to OTL in some general ways, though with some role switches.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The LNAEC was to seek "to prevent the creation of atomic weapons and of all other weapons adaptable to mass destruction".

Well, that ain't happening.

The German-Soviet program had outstripped all others at this time. They were estimated to be within just a few days of having the theoretical knowledge to build a nuclear weapon. The UK was not too far behind, while the US program was lagging, nuclear research having been temporarily suspended due to budget cuts

Pretty close to what it would be like had the british not shared tube alloy with the amercians, and the majority of German physicists stayed home after the war. If the suez crisis (or equivalent) happens now though, with the russians and British as the only nuclear states...Well...things get interesting.

The USSR had also suspended its own program, investing its scientists and funds into the German program.

Carrot for the germans. Turning it back into a super high tech science centre with Soviet assistance.

Japan, arriving late to the party, was reported to be just beginning its own early theoretical research

They're the country most likely to have nukes used against them. Under them, probably just under, are various parts of China.

The same day Harry Dexter White was nominated by Dewey to be the American representative to the International Monetary Fund, despite a warning from the FBI that White had passed secret information to the Soviet Union. White was confirmed by the Senate on 6 February.

Heh. Oops.

The bank and fund being led by the 4 big economies together is going to be interesting. Esepcially if britian keeps its place as a mighty finance centre and economic power despite the loss of empire.

In summary, Kennan emphasised that the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for long-term peaceful coexistence with the capitalist world and that the best strategy was to “contain” communist expansion around the globe, without going to war.

Mm...unfortunate.

Joseph Stalin addressed a national radio audience in a major public speech reflecting on events since the end of GW2. Stalin said that another war was inevitable because of the "capitalist development of the world economy", and that the USSR would need to concentrate on national defence in

This, even more so. As dear as our leader is, I fear he may have become a liability for the future of the Soviet Union and wider comintern.

On 5 April the Soviet Union negotiated a 25-year agreement to create a "Soviet-Persian Oil Company", making it the fourth international partner lining up to ink agreements to help Turkey develop is massive new oil reserves (after the UK, US and Japan). Some joked that despite the burgeoning political disagreements that divided them, it was the beginning of a “P5 Oil Cartel”, with Turkey acting as the moderating partner and economic crossroad for competing post-war great power interests.

Sensible. Also grants further options for quiet diplomacy between the 5, keep the world economy in check, and them all talking constructively.

In negotiations during May, the Congress leaders rejected a Muslim League proposal for an independent State of Pakistan. A six-point plan for a Federal Union of India included a provision that legislation would have to be approved by a majority of both the Hindu legislators and the Muslim legislators. Opinion remained deadlocked through June 1946, with no national settlement or constitution yet agreed.

There's going to be a nasty civil war soon if they aren't careful. Which is going to spill over into british possessions and possibly even China and the Middle East.

This isn't great for anyone except...Well, you know.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Chapter 252: The Rest of the World – January to June 1946

That's right, suckers, the rest of you get as much air time as Japan gets all to itself, because Japan is important.

Baruch's proposal was rejected by the Soviet Union, who privately feared the plan would curtail the Soviet’s lead (via captured German nuclear scientists) in nuclear technology and atomic weapon development.

I mean, that was the idea...

while the US program was lagging, nuclear research having been temporarily suspended due to budget cuts [er HOI3 tech AI mumble mumble].

This is what joining the Comintern does to a once-thriving weapons research industry.

One wonders if in TTL we would still see the development and wide spread of Metropolis/Monte Carlo methods if the U.S. nuclear program guys don't come up with them. Depending on how exactly these budget cuts worked out, Los Alamos might not have been funded and you never get those guys together. And without those methods you lose out on a shockingly large fraction of what we in OTL consider modern science and technology, including a lot of quantum physics stuff in the last few decades that drives the energy and nanotech revolutions. Ah, butterflies...

Otto Hahn was a German chemist who was a pioneer in the fields of radioactivity and radiochemistry. He is referred to as the father of nuclear chemistry and father of nuclear fission. Hahn and Lise Meitner discovered radioactive isotopes of radium, thorium, protactinium and uranium. He also discovered the phenomena of atomic recoil and nuclear isomerism, and pioneered rubidium–strontium dating. In 1938, Hahn, Lise Meitner and Fritz Strassmann discovered nuclear fission, for which Hahn received the 1944 Nobel Prize for Chemistry – even while under house arrest under the Turkish occupation authority. Nuclear fission was the basis for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons.

I'm still mad about this. Otto Hahn was a hack who didn't know what he was looking at; Lise Meitner should have won that Nobel.

With his notes, his German colleagues and support from the Turkish government, Hahn resumed his research and eventually became head of Turkish nuclear development,

If Lise Meitner was in charge the Turks would probably have the bomb already.

In this period, with the Republican President Dewey dealing with a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, Vandenberg would prove to be a very influential advocate for a more robust U.S. foreign policy.

So long as he keeps the eyes of the US turned towards the true enemy in Moscow, this is good for Japan.

Former President Franklin D. Roosevelt died on 12 April [one year later than in OTL, for no other reason than I missed it in the last US update].

Clearly the lack of stress of the office lengthened his late years.

Poland nationalised its main industries on 3 January with passage of a law "on taking public ownership of the basic branches of the national economy".

"Poland", yes, right... none of that industry is being controlled by the Soviets, of course. None at all...

This election would be held on the basis of open voting, secret counting and a majority system. Due to these irregularities, it was already being been referred to as a "fraudulent system" designed to favour the incumbent government. [Hardly a surprise at this stage, really!]

Likely a claim being pushed by Soviet intelligence agents, who have the idea of a non-fraudulent system as the one where 99.8% vote for Stalin.

Yes. Stalin as the President of Turkey. What could be less fraudulent?

The vote on 5 May saw the proposed new Giraudist constitution for the Fourth Republic, adopted by a narrow vote (53.2% yes, 46.8% no, invalid 1.85%).

Such a narrow margin is hardly promising for political stability, especially if in TTL the Soviets get themselves a bit more together and agitate for leftist revolution in France. Potential flashpoint I think.

On 9 April Angkatan Udara Republik Indonesia (AURI), the Indonesian Air Force, was formally established, drawing primarily from a fleet of about 50 old Japanese aircraft left behind after they withdrew from those parts of the D.I.E. they had occupied under the terms of the Geneva Treaty.

You're welcome.

The bank and fund being led by the 4 big economies together is going to be interesting. Esepcially if britian keeps its place as a mighty finance centre and economic power despite the loss of empire.

According to El Pip, this is guaranteed to happen because Britain will cock it up, just not as badly as everybody else, and thus will be the natural choice to take the mantle of leadership as usual.

This, even more so. As dear as our leader is, I fear he may have become a liability for the future of the Soviet Union and wider comintern.

You make your bed, you lie in it...

Though there's a good argument to be made that anyone else in the leadership role would not have been much different... ineffectual, perhaps, but Stalin much like his erstwhile compatriot in Germany was not speaking from a place contrary to the national mood. Russia has pretty much always had this cultural fear that the West is out to get them, justifably at some times in history and less so at other times.

There's going to be a nasty civil war soon if they aren't careful. Which is going to spill over into british possessions and possibly even China and the Middle East.

This isn't great for anyone except...Well, you know.

Japan, obviously, which can benefit from the distraction to Chinese forces to secure their hold while making overtures to the leading Indian factions for future benefits, likely while the Soviets are too distracted in Europe to do much beyond "supporting" (a word which here is taken in the same sense as the Spanish Republicans c. 1936-1939; that is to say, tearing apart with ideological purges) communist factions and generally overstretching themselves.

 

[Midnite Duke]

I wish to congratulate TBC on his election to the Politburo. India could be the nuclear testing ground. If Turkey supports the Muslim League, will Soviets support Congress party? (Excuse me, stage left reports that it was Beria not Butterfly.) What is status of Ceylon/Sri Lanka? Is Bengal & Sind/Punjab going to be one, two or no independent countries? Maybe, even bigger mess than OTL. Without being used, would nukes surpass chemicals as #1 fear? Will Turkey help GB maintain peace in Palestine? Very, very interesting area. Thank you for giving us thoughts to ponder.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I mean, that was the idea...

Yes, well...we saw through that cunning plot.

Lise Meitner should have won that Nobel.

Lisa Meitner is probably working for the Soviets.

"Poland", yes, right... none of that industry is being controlled by the Soviets, of course. None at all...

Of course it's being controlled by the Soviets...the worker councils who control the entire comintern. The worker is the ruler here, my friend.

If you say otherwise, you're a fascist.

Yes. Stalin as the President of Turkey. What could be less fraudulent?

Now there's an idea...

According to El Pip, this is guaranteed to happen because Britain will cock it up, just not as badly as everybody else, and thus will be the natural choice to take the mantle of leadership as usual.

No problem with the UK leading it. They're much easier to bully and trick, they have so many pressure points, including France.

Japan, obviously

This sort of thing makes me wonder why Japan and the Soviets parted ways. It would have been purely pragmatic and not ideological, but we had a bunch of common interests in Asia, the Pacific and against the west.

Reapproachment may be possible at some point, I think.

If Turkey supports the Muslim League, will Soviets support Congress party?

Hell no, we want the raj smashed into as many (reasonably stable) pieces as possible.

What is status of Ceylon/Sri Lanka? Is Bengal & Sind/Punjab going to be one, two or no independent countries? Maybe, even bigger mess than OTL.

With two of the 5 powers hoping India dissolves along tribal and religious lines, and the british no doubt hoping something of the same out of spite, any separatist movement is going to get support.

Will Turkey help GB maintain peace in Palestine?

Given both powers are very pro-arab, this is...questionable. I doubt Israel will become a thing. Palestine with a large Jewish contingent, yes.

Turkey's supposed to be secular, and is going to have to be if it wants to keep control of the religiously fractious balkans and persia. That means supporting Arab nationalism through moderate factions, and keeping Palestine secular.

The trouble is that they've got Afghanistan and India on their doorstep and being secular and natural there is somewhat impossible if they also want to promote the concept of Pakistan.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

This sort of thing makes me wonder why Japan and the Soviets parted ways. It would have been purely pragmatic and not ideological, but we had a bunch of common interests in Asia, the Pacific and against the west.

Mostly because the authAAR said so.

Jokes aside, regardless of the realpolitik of the situation there is emnity between Japan and Russia which is by now generational in nature, which means even if the cooler heads in the foreign office prevail there is strong nationalist sentiment against the Soviets from the majority of Japanese, and on the Soviet side Stalin is an empire-grabbing expansionist.

I do suspect though that neither side will be moving to act against the other as a primary enemy. The Soviets have enough to worry about in Europe and the Far East has always been kind of its own separate beast from the rest of Russian/Soviet activities due to geography, and Japan has enough to worry about militarily that provoking the Red Army is probably unwise enough that the government will leave that to the unruly junior officers.

 

[SSmith]

The LNAEC was to seek "to prevent the creation of atomic weapons and of all other weapons adaptable to mass destruction".

The Soviet proposal was that the world's nations ratify a treaty pledging not to build nuclear weapons.

Through German science, the Soviets have a clear lead in this endeavour. I think it unlikely therefore that they have any intention of respecting the mandate of the organisation they've just brought into being. More likely, the aim is slow down everybody else's progress and increase their own advantage...

Not fully appreciated by the Soviets at the time, the American and British security services had begun to thoroughly penetrate the German-Soviet nuclear program, even as Stalin was doing the same to their somewhat less advanced programs.

...which might not be quite as great as they believe.

The German-Soviet program had outstripped all others at this time. They were estimated to be within just a few days of having the theoretical knowledge to build a nuclear weapon. The UK was not too far behind, while the US program was lagging, nuclear research having been temporarily suspended due to budget cuts. The USSR had also suspended its own program, investing its scientists and funds into the German program.

OK, so the German programme has just about reached fruition, but I suspect it's going to be something like another year before the Soviets actually have a bomb?

Turkey was now pursuing a program of its own, assessed to be around 2-3 steps behind the Germans, having obtained a fair number of their scientists in between the end of German resistance in May 1944 and the handing over of Germany to Soviet control after Geneva in November. Japan, arriving late to the party, was reported to be just beginning its own early theoretical research.

Indeed so. It's a race none of the P5 can afford to ignore. More so for Japan than Turkey.

S.I.T.H. Chief Cennet Kavgaci, reputedly in charge of Turkey’s recruitment program for German nuclear and rocket scientists. Rumours later emerged that many were given offers “they could not refuse”.

On 9 February, in what has since been described as the beginning of the Cold War, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin addressed a national radio audience in a major public speech reflecting on events since the end of GW2. Stalin said that another war was inevitable because of the "capitalist development of the world economy", and that the USSR would need to concentrate on national defence in advance of a war with the Western nations.

I doubt the British or the Japanese have any illusions about the Soviets. This won't play well in the U.S., though.

In summary, Kennan emphasised that the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for long-term peaceful coexistence with the capitalist world and that the best strategy was to “contain” communist expansion around the globe, without going to war.

Positions seem to be hardening all round, though of course the Soviets hold most of the cards in this timeline if the Americans choose to be confrontational.

On 5 April the Soviet Union negotiated a 25-year agreement to create a "Soviet-Persian Oil Company", making it the fourth international partner lining up to ink agreements to help Turkey develop is massive new oil reserves (after the UK, US and Japan). Some joked that despite the burgeoning political disagreements that divided them, it was the beginning of a “P5 Oil Cartel”, with Turkey acting as the moderating partner and economic crossroad for competing post-war great power interests.

Turkey needs the investment and the technical expertise. Everyone else needs the oil. So I'd say this is very good for Turkey, medium to long term, as they hold the trump card here - the oil itself.

This election would be held on the basis of open voting, secret counting and a majority system. Due to these irregularities, it was already being been referred to as a "fraudulent system" designed to favour the incumbent government.

Turkey's democratic experiment is somewhat less convincing than Japan's...

The vote on 5 May saw the proposed new Giraudist constitution for the Fourth Republic, adopted by a narrow vote (53.2% yes, 46.8% no, invalid 1.85%).

At least the French government survived its first test without collapsing - quite an achievement with such a wafer-thin majority in the legislature.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Through German science, the Soviets have a clear lead in this endeavour. I think it unlikely therefore that they have any intention of respecting the mandate of the organisation they've just brought into being. More likely, the aim is slow down everybody else's progress and increase their own advantage...

Don't be fascist!

Turkey needs the investment and the technical expertise. Everyone else needs the oil.

Actually, the US and Canada are still oil exporters at the moment and probably will be for some time give their industries haven't started booming yet.

Turkey obviously has the Persian oil fields and the ones in North africa. And Romania too.

Russia has Ukraine, the steppe and siberian fields.

So really its only the UK and Japan of the P5 that are not oil nations by default. And the US will need to start paying more attention to oil outside their borders if the country goes big on cars and industry as per otl.

So everyone is concerned with the development of the middle east, but on various levels.

 

[roverS3]

And so the world steams on. Interesting French constitution. I'm not sure why the Giraudites would go for a weak presidency. I've always seen the French President as a bit of an elected king in the way they have rather sweeping powers and live in a palace that very much predates the revolution (it housed Louis XV's famous mistress, Madame de Pompadour, for example.) I would have assumed that the monarchists would have made the presidency uber-powerful and with long intervals between elections. All in the hope of eventually turning the presidency into a de facto monarchy or at least a position one is elected to for life. By putting more power into the hands of the prime minister and the Assemblée nationale, they're actually moving away from Monarchy, though the bicameral system does still put some limits on that. Maybe they thought this would be most likely to get passed and they absolutely didn't want an effective single chamber system.

Interesting how Spaak still gets the job of secretary general. It's perfectly plausible of course, just funny how this just stayed the same from OTL...

The Soviets proposing no one develop nuclear weapons while the Germans are about to start building them gave me a good chuckle. They would just sign the piece of paper, keep developing anyway and extend their development lead, do all of their testing underground. And then, at the opportune moment... they casually pull out Tsar Bomba to utterly dominate the opposition. It's definitely dead in the water, and especially the Americans would not fall for it, but the Brits and the French might then feel pressure from their electorates to stop funding their very expensive nuclear programmes which would still be a win for the Soviets because TTL it is very doubtful, at least at this stage, that the US would drop a nuke to avenge a Soviet nuke drop on France, let alone Japan or China.

Anyhow. This epilogue continues to be a fascinating bit of alternate history.

 

[diskoerekto]

Australia, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, the Netherlands and Poland.

no UGNR leaning countries :/

If a plan could not be agreed, it could lead to the beginning of a nuclear arms race. Not fully appreciated by the Soviets at the time, the American and British security services had begun to thoroughly penetrate the German-Soviet nuclear program, even as Stalin was doing the same to their somewhat less advanced programs.

we're lagging so much behind! what is our leadership status now that the war has ended? how much know-how are we receiving from Germany and USSR? we oppose nuclear weapons but very intrigued by nuclear power generation, and also if others will have weapons we'll need some MAD.

Turkey was now pursuing a program of its own, assessed to be around 2-3 steps behind the Germans, having obtained a fair number of their scientists in between the end of German resistance in May 1944 and the handing over of Germany to Soviet control after Geneva in November. Japan, arriving late to the party, was reported to be just beginning its own early theoretical research [these latter two are now narrative, rather than game-based positions and the rest will be after the end of 1946].

already answered a paragraph later

After working on the German nuclear program during GW2, Hahn and a number of his colleagues were encouraged to defect to Turkey in October 1944, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was likely to be given control of Germany after the Geneva Conference. With his notes, his German colleagues and support from the Turkish government, Hahn resumed his research and eventually became head of Turkish nuclear development, which by mid-1946 had begun to make good progress on the basic building blocks of atomic theory.

all the oil fields of UGNR is outside of Anatolia, in case we lose those via aggression of others, we'll have considerable energy shortage (IRL energy is always the biggest import of Turkey). On the other hand, Turkey has one of the biggest Thorium reserves of the world so maybe he'll create a viable reactor design for it!

This contributed to a further cooling of relations with the former wartime Comintern partners.

we don't want this

the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for long-term peaceful coexistence with the capitalist world

nor this

On 9 February, in what has since been described as the beginning of the Cold War, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin addressed a national radio audience in a major public speech reflecting on events since the end of GW2. Stalin said that another war was inevitable because of the "capitalist development of the world economy", and that the USSR would need to concentrate on national defence in advance of a war with the Western nations.

cool it guys!

Charles "Lucky" Luciano, an American Mafia boss, was transported from a New York prison to an ocean liner and deported to his native Italy on 9 February. He was soon being employed as a ‘business consultant’ by the Corleone regime in Southern Italy.

:facepalm: apparently things are a bit out of Inonu's hands

General Draža Mihailović, the Chetnik leader who oversaw the massacre of Bosnians and Croatians during the Nazi occupation of Yugoslavia, was captured by Turkish special forces in a mountain cave near Višegrad on 12 March after two years in hiding. His capture was announced in Belgrade on March 24, and Mihailović would later be executed on July 17.

good, good, justice is good

During the first half of 1946, İnönü's government continued to organise multi-party elections. The first post-war election of the new multi-party era would be held on 21 July 1946. İnönü's CHP and Celal Bayar's opposition Democrats would be the two main participants. A multiple non-transferable vote electoral system would be used, in which voters elect several representatives at once, with each voter having more than one vote. This election would be held on the basis of open voting, secret counting and a majority system. Due to these irregularities, it was already being been referred to as a "fraudulent system" designed to favour the incumbent government. [Hardly a surprise at this stage, really!]

Check out this guy he's a very interesting character as a self made millionaire businessman who spearheaded many industries (actually got an aeroplane factory going), but many of his achievements later came to naught after political falling out with the ruling parties of the time (check the Turkish language version of the wikipedia link as well, google translate does a good enough job ). He founded the first opposition party but didn't get much traction, but in this timeline who knows what happens?

I also think TSP and/or TSEKP aren't shutdown, and Nazim Hikmet, Kemal Tahir or Hikmet Kivilcimli aren't imprisoned. Mind that Nazim is the internationally famous one but Kivilcimli is a real badass and the real deal.

As an election buff and and a fan of this alternate timeline I'm looking forward to how will the election look like

He pointedly did not include the UGNR in this.

Well if they let go of Middle East, we can actually have good relations!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

On the other hand, Turkey has one of the biggest Thorium reserves of the world so maybe he'll create a viable reactor design for it!

Comintern as a whole will be looking at reactors for power, since we have a lot of the raw materials for it and some huge areas of land to cover. Hopefully we build, staff and manage them better though...

we don't want this

nor this

cool it guys!

Yeah...really hoping stalin dies soon. He's done his bit of keeping things in control during the war. We need a diplomat in charge now. And a proper management team for the MASSIVE comintern we have.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Hopefully we build, staff and manage them better though...

Unlikely. This is still the Soviet Union we're talking about here. The list of nuclear safety accidents they had just in the first decade of their OTL nuclear program is frankly nightmarish and makes one wonder how the planet is still intact and not a radioactive ball of slime already.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 253: Continued AI Game - January to June 1946 (Bonus Material)

​

Introduction

Here we have the continuation of the game under AI control (me ‘playing’ as Nepal and not doing anything), just observing mainly the Allied invasion of Japan that started in late 1945. Published now as a companion to the last two epilogue chapters covering the same period, prior to me doing consolidated comment feedback on Chapter 252.

How it would have changed the post-war settlement, British power and perceptions of their luke-warm war effort and Churchill’s post-war standing (if not necessarily the tiredness of the population and the switch to Attlee).

---xxx---​

Japan: January-March 1946

During January 1946, the largely British invasion force expanded to control all of the southern Home Island of Kyushu, while only making limited progress on the southern end of Honshu, securing Hiroshima as their main naval and supply base. Units were now poised to cross the straits from Kyushu into the smaller island of Shikoku.

​

As March began, Shikoku had been entirely over-run and British armour had crossed the straits into south-eastern Honshu, outflanking the main Japanese defence in front of Osaka, which had been standing its ground for a few months. Nagoya was now under threat and beyond that Tokyo.

​

During March, the defence of Osaka collapsed, the Japanese forces there surrounded and destroyed. Nagoya had just fallen after a tough fight, leaving the way open to Tokyo, while Allied forces streamed up the western side of Honshu without any opposition.

---xxx---​

The Fall of Tokyo and Japanese Surrender

Tokyo fell after a short fight by Japanese garrison troops on 23 April 1946. It was not quite enough to force them to surrender, but the end was well within sight.

​

By this time, Japanese forces on the Asian mainland and in South East Asia still resisted strongly, but this would prove futile given the situation in the Home Island by 7 May. Large portions of the Soviet Far East remained under occupation, though some advances had been made by Stalin’s troops. In Japan, most of Honshu had now been taken.

​

It took until 25 May 1946 for VJ Day to be declared. Great War II (alt) was finally over, with the unconditional surrender of Japan final and complete defeat of the Axis.

​

Under the terms of the armistice, all occupied Soviet territory was returned to Stalin, who by then occupied most of Mongolia. All of the remaining territory directly occupied by Japan at that time was transferred to British control, including occupied China, Korea and all previous Japanese holdings in South East Asia. It was anticipated that the Philippines and Burma would be released to new independent civilian governments, France would assume responsibility again for Indochina.

​

Elections for a newly liberated Korea would follow at some point, while the former Japanese puppets of Mengukukuo and Manchukuo now passed under British supervision. Along with occupied China, the fate of these lands would need to be negotiated, with the Nationalist Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shek naturally vocal about the restoration of occupied China at least in the shorter term. And Mao’s small Communist state based in Shanxi also had its own ambitions.

The Dutch East Indies, Australia and New Zealand were all restored to their full pre-war boundaries, with all Japanese troops initially interned and later repatriated – except for those that would be standing trial for war crimes.

---xxx---​

May-June 1946: Early Post-war Developments

On 30 May, the Soviet Union announced the full liberation of Mongolia and Tannu Tuva – as Comintern puppets regimes under Soviet control, of course.

​

And Britain formally liberated Bhutan on 6 June, restoring it to its pre-occupation status.

​

As at mid-June 1946, the Allies had fulfilled 6 of their 15 self-nominated victory conditions, while the Comintern remained at 12. The recent gains by the Allies in Europe saw them close in somewhat on the Comintern in terms of the assessed position of each faction in international achievements by the end of June 1946.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

As at mid-June 1946, the Allies had fulfilled 6 of their 15 self-nominated victory conditions, while the Comintern remained at 12. The recent gains by the Allies in Europe saw them close in somewhat on the Comintern in terms of the assessed position of each faction in international achievements by the end of June 1946.

Quick & Dirty 3, anyone?

 

[Midnite Duke]

Impressive finish after a sluggish start by the British AI. French generals probably assumed control of the French Foreign Legion aka the British army, after the liberation of Paris. Wonderful update.

 

[Bullfilter]

So, I'm yet to start researching and improvising the second half of 1946, but here follows comment feedback for the last two chapters, anyway (mainly the 'real alternative' Chap 252):

Well, that ain't happening.

Quite - I thought a bit of irony at that point would be applicable - and rather realistic, given the traditional disconnect between the ideals and aims of these international bodies and the usually sad and dysfunctional outcomes in the real world.

Pretty close to what it would be like had the british not shared tube alloy with the amercians, and the majority of German physicists stayed home after the war. If the suez crisis (or equivalent) happens now though, with the russians and British as the only nuclear states...Well...things get interesting.

Good point. And because the US program isn't as developed, it means the Russians don't gain that much by spying on it. They must rely on the Germans they've managed to grab. Which is a double-edged sword for them. A bit harder to control them than a purely home-grown program, and far more likely to leak/be willing targets for Allied espionage, somewhat reversing the vibe from OTL, which is how I'm playing it, anyway.

Carrot for the germans. Turning it back into a super high tech science centre with Soviet assistance.

To a certain extent. I doubt there will be much bonhomie in Germany however: who remain unified, angry after the plundering of their industry, resentful of the Soviet occupation and not moderated by the liberalisation and democratisation of OTL West Germany. A dangerous mix for the Soviets, one would think, who have been granted the curse of having their wishes flfilled in this case?

They're the country most likely to have nukes used against them. Under them, probably just under, are various parts of China.

Maybe, though they too are a P5 power and there's no high-level, existential war yet that might provoke the ultimate weapon (if developed and deployed on a large scale) to be used? Even a Soviet-Japanese clash over say Mongolia or Korea would be unlikely to trigger such use. Even if MacArthur was toying with the idea in OTL Korea.

Heh. Oops.

The bank and fund being led by the 4 big economies together is going to be interesting. Esepcially if britian keeps its place as a mighty finance centre and economic power despite the loss of empire.

Yes, it will be. It is one of the moderating influences that may prevent a full Allied-Soviet Cold War developing at all, or being less frosty if it does.

Mm...unfortunate.

This, even more so. As dear as our leader is, I fear he may have become a liability for the future of the Soviet Union and wider comintern.

It's a parallel of OTL, as is my guide here, but may not develop in quite the same way as it did in OTL. Nothing is preordained: alt-history resembling, not always repeating.

Sensible. Also grants further options for quiet diplomacy between the 5, keep the world economy in check, and them all talking constructively.

Very much so. Turkey could end up playing a pivotal and positive role in this ATL - if something terrible and unforeseen doesn't de-rail everything!

There's going to be a nasty civil war soon if they aren't careful. Which is going to spill over into british possessions and possibly even China and the Middle East.

This isn't great for anyone except...Well, you know.

This is a possibility, one of a range from good to horrid that the % dice will end up deciding at one or more critical points. A bit like a D&D DM rolling for reactions as various events are encountered. Beware the wandering monsters! And I'm not sure it's much good for anyone, really. And the spill-over may well be pretty limited: Britain is already out of India, so any implosion there may be very much internal.

That's right, suckers, the rest of you get as much air time as Japan gets all to itself, because Japan is important.

I mean, that was the idea...

Yes, this is another one where the tables are turned on OTL. And Stalin would always play this one cynically if in a position to do so.

This is what joining the Comintern does to a once-thriving weapons research industry.

One wonders if in TTL we would still see the development and wide spread of Metropolis/Monte Carlo methods if the U.S. nuclear program guys don't come up with them. Depending on how exactly these budget cuts worked out, Los Alamos might not have been funded and you never get those guys together. And without those methods you lose out on a shockingly large fraction of what we in OTL consider modern science and technology, including a lot of quantum physics stuff in the last few decades that drives the energy and nanotech revolutions. Ah, butterflies...

Interesting ponderings, in an area I'd not feel competent or knowledgeable enough to speculate myself. But once there's evidence (via espionage) of the Soviet-German program of developing a viable bomb design, I'm thinking Dewey would be pretty quick in restarting the US program (for which I'll be going narrative, as the in-game stuff I've got left become more and more discordant with what's happening in the ATL now).

I'm still mad about this. Otto Hahn was a hack who didn't know what he was looking at; Lise Meitner should have won that Nobel.

If Lise Meitner was in charge the Turks would probably have the bomb already.

I really did pick up that vibe from the Wiki excepts I read through. Another female scientist ripped off ...

So long as he keeps the eyes of the US turned towards the true enemy in Moscow, this is good for Japan.

It does seem to be heading that way, but it won't be the same as in OTL. Japan not pacifist, nor a full 'sponsored' western democratic power subservient to/dependent on the US. And with lots of baggage and some wicked strategic/moral problems in Asia. It will be interesting to see how that works out - I haven't fully decided yet myself.

Clearly the lack of stress of the office lengthened his late years.

This is my excuse.

"Poland", yes, right... none of that industry is being controlled by the Soviets, of course. None at all...

Perfidious Soviets ...

Likely a claim being pushed by Soviet intelligence agents, who have the idea of a non-fraudulent system as the one where 99.8% vote for Stalin.

Yes. Stalin as the President of Turkey. What could be less fraudulent?

Such a narrow margin is hardly promising for political stability, especially if in TTL the Soviets get themselves a bit more together and agitate for leftist revolution in France. Potential flashpoint I think.

Perhaps, but it was something of an achievement for the Giraudists to get a new constitution through on the first vote, unlike what happened in OTL. Still, it's a tricky and balanced situation there, with the imminent full elections under the new Fourth Republic important for the coming few years.

You're welcome.

According to El Pip, this is guaranteed to happen because Britain will cock it up, just not as badly as everybody else, and thus will be the natural choice to take the mantle of leadership as usual.

I think in this ATL the British (by themselves) are probably in a stronger position economically, strategically and financially than in OTL. Even if the West as a whole is not so and more fragmented with the US still only partly engaged, even though they're now well out of the Comintern. Despite Attlee's agenda, I would see them trying hard to maintain and even build their financial position.

You make your bed, you lie in it...

Though there's a good argument to be made that anyone else in the leadership role would not have been much different... ineffectual, perhaps, but Stalin much like his erstwhile compatriot in Germany was not speaking from a place contrary to the national mood. Russia has pretty much always had this cultural fear that the West is out to get them, justifably at some times in history and less so at other times.

Astute observations, I reckon. Who among the feasible alternatives at the time (if any, as Stalin ensured they never became so!) would have done any better? Also, bear in mind that while the 'Comintern' ended up doing far better than in OTL, the Soviets have not.

The Warsaw Pact is far smaller, they still had large swathes of their country ravaged by the Germans (including Leningrad occupied and then fought over again on the way back) and had to share much of the glory of victory with Turkey, who are only still aligned through wartime camaraderie rather than any ideological bonds.

Getting the whole of Germany in one way was a big win to counteract not getting any of eastern Europe except Poland, but as per above, might that prove a mixed blessing? I think some of the post-war Soviet triumphalism we've seen may have been overstated for propaganda purposes. I can't see how they are in too much of a stronger position than in OTL, if at all. And Stalin may be trying to over-compensate and attempting to get the kudos he craved and felt he didn't get enough of during GW2.

Japan, obviously, which can benefit from the distraction to Chinese forces to secure their hold while making overtures to the leading Indian factions for future benefits, likely while the Soviets are too distracted in Europe to do much beyond "supporting" (a word which here is taken in the same sense as the Spanish Republicans c. 1936-1939; that is to say, tearing apart with ideological purges) communist factions and generally overstretching themselves.

Hmm, I don't think any potential civil war in China (which one would think is well-nigh inevitable) would be spill-over from India, per se. There's enough fuel lying on the ground here already, and plenty of sparks. Though if it comes, it could possibly be exploited by Japan, depending on the timing and circumstances.

I think for now, the Soviets may be less distracted by Europe than they were in OTL, given the lack of a NATO-type threat there and continued friendly relations with Turkey. My read is they are more likely to seek to influence and interfere in Asia in the ATL. Which presents them with both threat and opportunities.

I wish to congratulate TBC on his election to the Politburo.

India could be the nuclear testing ground.

Not sure about that. If developed, I'm not sure the nukes of this era would be that useful (or 'wasted') in a messy internal conflict.

If Turkey supports the Muslim League, will Soviets support Congress party? (Excuse me, stage left reports that it was Beria not Butterfly.) What is status of Ceylon/Sri Lanka?

Good speculations. Turkey may decide to get involved, given they now share a border via the Iranian frontier, but it is not a given. In the ATL, the Congress Party is more Allied-oriented (given India joined the Allies after the Geneva Treaty talks). I hadn't thought of Sri Lanka yet, but you can assume here that it is likely to roughly follow whatever happened in OTL, though subject to random ATL variation.

Is Bengal & Sind/Punjab going to be one, two or no independent countries? Maybe, even bigger mess than OTL.

A question yet to be determined, so a hypothetical for now.

Without being used, would nukes surpass chemicals as #1 fear?

Good question. But even if not used in a war, I think tests alone would be enough to scare the sh!te out of the rest of the world anyway.

Will Turkey help GB maintain peace in Palestine? Very, very interesting area. Thank you for giving us thoughts to ponder.

Another good question. The regional dynamics are different here than in OTL. A range of possibilities could unfold. Annd you're welcome: some very good questions posed there.

Yes, well...we saw through that cunning plot.

Indeed.

Lisa Meitner is probably working for the Soviets.

Yes, probably why the Germans are now leading the way on nukes.

Of course it's being controlled by the Soviets...the worker councils who control the entire comintern. The worker is the ruler here, my friend.

If you say otherwise, you're a fascist.

Though I'd say 'the entire Soviet sphere' rather than the Comintern, probably, as that doesn't really exist any more as a political or economic entity outside the Warsaw Pact countries (ie the direct Soviet puppets in Europe and Asia).

Now there's an idea...

Oh, they have their own wartime strongman, though one with perhaps a scintilla more democratic DNA than Uncle Joe.

No problem with the UK leading it. They're much easier to bully and trick, they have so many pressure points, including France.

Maybe. It's a two-way shooting gallery, though.

This sort of thing makes me wonder why Japan and the Soviets parted ways. It would have been purely pragmatic and not ideological, but we had a bunch of common interests in Asia, the Pacific and against the west.

Reapproachment may be possible at some point, I think.

Not sure they were really common interests, other than a few short-term diplomatic ones. More like similar but conflicting interests? And far fewer now the the Conference is over and Japan tries to deal with the mess it has conquered for itself. Soviet-Japanese rapprochement could be a long time coming, if ever ... Korea could be a real sore point, Mongolia more of a symbolic one without any real strategic importance.

Hell no, we want the raj smashed into as many (reasonably stable) pieces as possible.

I think this is true. From a Soviet perspective, Raj smashed and Allied influence curtailed, possible Communist uprisings, etc.

With two of the 5 powers hoping India dissolves along tribal and religious lines, and the british no doubt hoping something of the same out of spite, any separatist movement is going to get support.

Fair comment.

Given both powers are very pro-arab, this is...questionable. I doubt Israel will become a thing. Palestine with a large Jewish contingent, yes.

Turkey's supposed to be secular, and is going to have to be if it wants to keep control of the religiously fractious balkans and persia. That means supporting Arab nationalism through moderate factions, and keeping Palestine secular.

The trouble is that they've got Afghanistan and India on their doorstep and being secular and natural there is somewhat impossible if they also want to promote the concept of Pakistan.

Still undecided how OTL events here will be riffed. It could get just as ugly as it did in OTL, but as mentioned above the regional power dynamics are quite different. Not sure Turkey is really pro-Arab. If anything, they would be both wary of them (ie Arab Spring-type fears) and resented by the Arabs as conquerors, especially of Arabia itself (including the Holy Cities) and Syria.

The Middle East could be just as tricky for Turkey as for the British in this ATL. They will have both common and clashing interests ...

Mostly because the authAAR said so.

Yes, that! And per above, I think any longer-term mutual strategic interests here, compared to short-term diplomatic dealing and outcomes, may be over-blown.

Jokes aside, regardless of the realpolitik of the situation there is emnity between Japan and Russia which is by now generational in nature, which means even if the cooler heads in the foreign office prevail there is strong nationalist sentiment against the Soviets from the majority of Japanese, and on the Soviet side Stalin is an empire-grabbing expansionist.

This too.

I do suspect though that neither side will be moving to act against the other as a primary enemy. The Soviets have enough to worry about in Europe and the Far East has always been kind of its own separate beast from the rest of Russian/Soviet activities due to geography, and Japan has enough to worry about militarily that provoking the Red Army is probably unwise enough that the government will leave that to the unruly junior officers.

To a certain extent, though with less current strategic danger and confrontation against the West in Europe (for now, anyway), they may be able to put more skin in the game in Asia - and be tempted to do so. But conflict in Asia is likely to be civil and proxy wars, I think. No one wants GW3 so soon after the last one has finished.

Through German science, the Soviets have a clear lead in this endeavour. I think it unlikely therefore that they have any intention of respecting the mandate of the organisation they've just brought into being. More likely, the aim is slow down everybody else's progress and increase their own advantage...

This is a safe assumption, I think. Though they are likely to play along in public and it may moderate their behaviour somewhat. Depends if a nuclear arms race and proliferation eventuates ...

...which might not be quite as great as they believe.

Indeed. It's a mirror of the OTL situation, in some ways.

OK, so the German programme has just about reached fruition, but I suspect it's going to be something like another year before the Soviets actually have a bomb?

Likely so. It still takes a while to actually build one.

Indeed so. It's a race none of the P5 can afford to ignore. More so for Japan than Turkey.

Very much so. Just a little analogous to say France and China after WW2?

I doubt the British or the Japanese have any illusions about the Soviets. This won't play well in the U.S., though.

It may well give something for Dewey to rally some public opinion on. If he can sort out a strategy and sell it.

Positions seem to be hardening all round, though of course the Soviets hold most of the cards in this timeline if the Americans choose to be confrontational.

Yes, to a certain extent, but see above re my thoughts on the actual power of the Soviet position in this OTL. I think they may have more international influence by becoming more a part of its institutions in a more multi-polar world, but am not sure their absolute position is better or even as strong. As many threats as opportunities for them and they may not have the skill to exploit the chances they get. And could end up suffering from short-sightedness, blundering and the inherent weaknesses of their political and economic systems.

Turkey needs the investment and the technical expertise. Everyone else needs the oil. So I'd say this is very good for Turkey, medium to long term, as they hold the trump card here - the oil itself.

And it is a card they will really be trying to play. For as long as they can maintain that control - I wonder how long the Iranians and Arabs will be willing to put up with Turkish overlordship?

Turkey's democratic experiment is somewhat less convincing than Japan's...

Good point. Though they they have the same drivers to liberalise after having 'won the war'. Just hoping not to lose the peace!

At least the French government survived its first test without collapsing - quite an achievement with such a wafer-thin majority in the legislature.

Yes, its a tightrope for them, with another big test (for the % dice) coming up shortly. It could go either way!

Don't be fascist!

Oh, just realist!

Actually, the US and Canada are still oil exporters at the moment and probably will be for some time give their industries haven't started booming yet.

Turkey obviously has the Persian oil fields and the ones in North africa. And Romania too.

Russia has Ukraine, the steppe and siberian fields.

So really its only the UK and Japan of the P5 that are not oil nations by default. And the US will need to start paying more attention to oil outside their borders if the country goes big on cars and industry as per otl.

So everyone is concerned with the development of the middle east, but on various levels.

Yes, the above. But at this point, the US were already anticipating future demand and want to get the business too. The Turkish grip on North Africa was loosened as a result of the Geneva outcomes, so any oil there is more likely to be exploited by the various independent (though still Turkish-aligned) regimes.

Of course, Russia had is own great energy reserves, though they will still want to control what they can, if primarily for strategic/denial purposes (and financial profit, if they can manage it).

Yes, UK and Japan in particular need the oil. And also the strategic impact.

And so the world steams on. Interesting French constitution. I'm not sure why the Giraudites would go for a weak presidency. I've always seen the French President as a bit of an elected king in the way they have rather sweeping powers and live in a palace that very much predates the revolution (it housed Louis XV's famous mistress, Madame de Pompadour, for example.) I would have assumed that the monarchists would have made the presidency uber-powerful and with long intervals between elections. All in the hope of eventually turning the presidency into a de facto monarchy or at least a position one is elected to for life. By putting more power into the hands of the prime minister and the Assemblée nationale, they're actually moving away from Monarchy, though the bicameral system does still put some limits on that. Maybe they thought this would be most likely to get passed and they absolutely didn't want an effective single chamber system.

The presidency and bicameral parliament (ie the proposal that actually got up in OTL) was the best they could do and headed off the Leftist agenda, for now anyway. And who knows, maybe they already have an eye on what comes after - a Fifth Republic or even some kind of Restoration if the current system is seen to fail?

Also interesting to think what the monarchists would want a presidency to look like. Maybe they'd want it to be weak and subject to failure, rather than so strong it replaces the need for a monarchy? A monarchist promoting a strong presidency might just be too much of an ideological stretch for them to contemplate.

Maybe, if the president is more of a ceremonial post, a case could be made for a restored Constitutional Monarchy to be instituted? Er, just like in the Allied leader? I think even a staunch monarchist in this period would see it as unlikely that an immediate return to some kind of more powerful or even absolutist monarchy would be possible off the bat.

Interesting how Spaak still gets the job of secretary general. It's perfectly plausible of course, just funny how this just stayed the same from OTL...

It's President rather than SECGEN, which has gone to Lie. More of a ceremonial position as chair and presiding officer of the General Assembly and elected annually, as opposed to the perhaps more powerful SECGEN position, as the chief admin officer, appointed by the General Assembly on the 'recommendation of the Security Council' (here, I've taken the new arrangements to mirror those of the UN. And yes, I'm only changing from OTL where I think it's either anomalous or for narrative purposes. Less effort.

The Soviets proposing no one develop nuclear weapons while the Germans are about to start building them gave me a good chuckle. They would just sign the piece of paper, keep developing anyway and extend their development lead, do all of their testing underground. And then, at the opportune moment... they casually pull out Tsar Bomba to utterly dominate the opposition. It's definitely dead in the water, and especially the Americans would not fall for it, but the Brits and the French might then feel pressure from their electorates to stop funding their very expensive nuclear programmes which would still be a win for the Soviets because TTL it is very doubtful, at least at this stage, that the US would drop a nuke to avenge a Soviet nuke drop on France, let alone Japan or China.

Yes, the Soviets can do sarcasm here, while not perceiving irony. I think in the ATL, the British as leaders of the Allies and the most advanced (and only continuing) western atomic program (and with alarming intel coming out of Germany) will feel the need to keep going, despite what many in the Attlee government and the wider electorate may think. And all that recent cold war rhetoric will make it even easier to justify. And, as you say, with no US nuclear umbrella in TTL, all the more reason to keep the domestic program going.

Anyhow. This epilogue continues to be a fascinating bit of alternate history.

Thank you!

no UGNR leaning countries :/

No, not yet (mainly going off OTL nominees at this point) but I'm sure they will come!

we're lagging so much behind! what is our leadership status now that the war has ended? how much know-how are we receiving from Germany and USSR? we oppose nuclear weapons but very intrigued by nuclear power generation, and also if others will have weapons we'll need some MAD.

already answered a paragraph later

Yes, I didn't think one of the P5 would want to be left out here. Look at OTL ...

all the oil fields of UGNR is outside of Anatolia, in case we lose those via aggression of others, we'll have considerable energy shortage (IRL energy is always the biggest import of Turkey). On the other hand, Turkey has one of the biggest Thorium reserves of the world so maybe he'll create a viable reactor design for it!

Yes, a very pertinent point, and discussed a bit above. Aggression of others ... or nationalist actions, sabotage etc.

we don't want this

nor this

cool it guys!

Maybe, though does it potentially put the UGNR in an even stronger position? Can they exploit these divides without having to pick a side?

:facepalm: apparently things are a bit out of Inonu's hands

Yes, the monster that is the gangster regime in Southern Italy is now too firmly established to stop. It seems the UGNR will tolerate them, as long as they open the tent flap when having a p!ss!

good, good, justice is good

He had it coming. Especially after they tried to assassinate Inonu during the war!

Check out this guy he's a very interesting character as a self made millionaire businessman who spearheaded many industries (actually got an aeroplane factory going), but many of his achievements later came to naught after political falling out with the ruling parties of the time (check the Turkish language version of the wikipedia link as well, google translate does a good enough job ). He founded the first opposition party but didn't get much traction, but in this timeline who knows what happens?

I also think TSP and/or TSEKP aren't shutdown, and Nazim Hikmet, Kemal Tahir or Hikmet Kivilcimli aren't imprisoned. Mind that Nazim is the internationally famous one but Kivilcimli is a real badass and the real deal.

As an election buff and and a fan of this alternate timeline I'm looking forward to how will the election look like

I will be consulting off-line!

Well if they let go of Middle East, we can actually have good relations!

This is a possibility, more so with a de-colonialising Labour government in power in the UK.

Comintern as a whole will be looking at reactors for power, since we have a lot of the raw materials for it and some huge areas of land to cover. Hopefully we build, staff and manage them better though...

I'm already thinking less Comintern, more separate sphere's of interest with remaining historical links and friendships, but yes.

Yeah...really hoping stalin dies soon. He's done his bit of keeping things in control during the war. We need a diplomat in charge now. And a proper management team for the MASSIVE comintern we have.

Oh, I think he's got a few years left in him yet! A 'diplomat' from the post-war Soviet Politburo!? And per above, the monolithic Comintern is already withering away. The immediate Soviet-controlled sphere of interest is geographically smaller than it was in post-war OTL, and their European influence diminished everywhere except in Germany. Which has the potential to become a cauldron of discontent ...

Unlikely. This is still the Soviet Union we're talking about here. The list of nuclear safety accidents they had just in the first decade of their OTL nuclear program is frankly nightmarish and makes one wonder how the planet is still intact and not a radioactive ball of slime already.

QED.

Quick & Dirty 3, anyone?

Not for a while, and I have a couple of different HOI3 projects in mind (one an AAR, the other the resumption of my mpod, if I can get its issues sorted). Both after this one is finally wrapped up - its continuation being my own fault, of course!

Impressive finish after a sluggish start by the British AI. French generals probably assumed control of the French Foreign Legion aka the British army, after the liberation of Paris. Wonderful update.

Hmm, not sure those French generals had that good a track record during the recent war! But yes, it would have been very different if the game had gone another couple of years ...

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The Warsaw Pact is far smaller, they still had large swathes of their country ravaged by the Germans (including Leningrad occupied and then fought over again on the way back) and had to share much of the glory of victory with Turkey, who are only still aligned through wartime camaraderie rather than any ideological bonds.

Eh...remember they are in much better standing with the world than OTL. A genuine comintern of socialist nations who are backing their ideology, alongside some strong puppets. A very close ally who is also still dependant upon them for security. No real threat of any kind nearby in the old world.

Bascially, the Soviets really do occupy a very strong postion, and their best bet forward is to play it well: integrate themsevles at a high level in as many international groups as possible, make as many friends, allies and semi puppet regimees as possible in the post colonial world, and ensure that the west stays out of europe and Asia.

Everyone else also wants the russians to do this, because at least for the next decade or so, the Soviets really could say screw it and make a good attempt at conquering and puppetting the rest of europe, the middle east and Asia by force. The UK and Turkey do not have anything close to the power to stop them, and are compeltly out of postion to anyway. The US might, but it would take years to gear up their economy to fight such a massive world war, and in that time, mainland Europe is probably taken.

It would be a bad move in the end for the Soviets, but they absolutely could do it, in game or in universe, and have a good chance of taking most of the world down with them.

So whilst on paper, Turkey controls half the comintern, in reality, those buffer puppets between the two are going to be very Soviet leaning, and the entire UGNR is going to be relying heavily on the Soviets for all kinds of support and aid as they attempt to keep their extremely unwieldy empire together. Meanwhile France is surrounded by communists or comintern members, Asia has no western presence at all, and might not have any in the future, and Russia took less damage and fewer casualties than in the OTL war.

They aren't invincible, and the pendulum will swing back towards the west eventually, but for the next decade (and certainly until stalin dies), the society Union is the strongest force on the planet and everyone knows it.