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It wasn't a negotiation option but yeah, it slipped my mind. To be fair, I have no idea why Japan would bounce the Soviet Union over half of 1940s Mongolia...
Please excuse me for replying to some of the longer comment emails in shorter form, but there's so much great comment to go through and real life has dealt me a few very serious curve balls over the last week or so. But I'm hoping a corner has been turned and I find writing and researching these episodes quite therapeutic, when I have the nervous energy to do them.
Didn’t take long for the cracks to start to show in the blissful dream of a benevolent Comintern, then. The way things are developing, it looks a lot like we’ll be getting more of the old Socialism in one country fairly soon. But then Stalin’s gunna Stalin.
Better hurry up with arranging Uncle Joe’s accidental shaving accident, Butterfly!
That was the plan, at least. Very clearly define spheres and remove every possible friction so far as possible, meaning that by the time any new friction happens, we've had decades of peace and friendship to fall back on in negotiations.
Ah yes, that should prove most useful as a starting point.
Also part of the plan, and it seems to have worked. If necessary, we can afford to spend the rest of the 40s and most of the 50s attempting to either create and install Red China and as many communist states as possible, or at the very least ensure we have a ton of buffer states, satellites and red factions all over the continent.
Should have a problem with China then, whoever wins. We helped against the Japanese, we've provided help to both the nats and the reds, and it looks hopeful that Mao will still come through and win outright (he was much better at fighting the Japanese than the other side, and if we actually do get into a shooting war with Japan, obviously we'll be handing over all our territory to him afterwards).
We might not even have an ideological split, because stalin will be dead by then and who knows who will be in charge?
Going as well as it could be. Korea seems likely to fall to communism outright, which is great news. Vietnam is going to fall but the government is a bit more up in the air. Ho Chi Min sure did become a pretty good communist but his main aim was getting the French and then everyone else out of Vietnam. It seems likely that its going to come down to who plays their cards better: the USSR or US. And in this case, I think it might be us just because the amercians are going to be a lot more desperate and demanding for control, given the lack of allies and vassals they have in Asia.
We will, but this is a long term investment so I doubt much will come of it unless there's a huge civ war at some point soon over Pakistan, Bangladesh etc.
Mm, I suspect there should be too much friction, at least for the foreseeable. Our main concerns will be ensuring as little western influence as possible exists in the region, and that a big oul consortium (which we'd have huge influence over) is agreed upon by these soon to be massive oil producers. That would then give us even more common ground with Turkey, and even some more options in negotiations with Amercia (mostly positive) and Japan (can seriously turn the screws).
A very good appointment. Dare I say, that sounds like the sort of thing that the conference team would do. Try for an approchment or at least reasonably friendly relations with any US government, and try to keep all their ire on colonialism, esepcially Japan (but with a suggestion of British too).
THAT is going to change quite quickly, esepcially once we start publishing exactly how far and by what means the nazis screwed their own country over.
Good, good, we can use that.
Nice. Seems like a pretty solid foundation for building a new comintern state. The nukes will be useful too.
Meh. For various reasons, the USSR and UGNR both having nukes isn't really a problem for either state (in some ways it simplifies matters nicely). Now we CAN'T attack each other, the whole of europe is covered by our combined nuclear umbrella, and the chances of a missile crisis are ever so slightly reduced because both of us will have gotten used to having nukes just over the border. Still means the amercians can make trouble in Rhodes though...but then again, so can we in Cuba.
He seems to be doing...alright? Better than OTL anyway. I sense at least some of the hands that were behind the diplomatic coup in the conference are still high up in both power and favour in some of these decisions.
Hopefully that means one of them/us ends up winning the swift and high stakes game of succession when stalin dies. Or even better, gets anointed his successor by name.
This time line is going to focus even more on Asia than came to pass in OTL and earlier. There will still be rebuilding and turmoil in Europe, but of a different nature and maybe not to the same extent as in OTL either. For example, France was not that much more fought over (geographically anyway) than in 1940 and never suffered the Overlord and subsequent fighting in 1944 this time. A bit of skirmishing in northern France against a disintegrating Germany, then Hitler was dead and pfft, it was over.
The Litvinov thing was as per OTL, but delayed and reworked to fit in with the ATL time scale. Still makes sense and also had the ring of actual truth to it. It not only might have happened, but DID happen in due course.
Yes, Uncle Joe is not going to be gentle on cleaning things out politically, extracting reparations or disarming Germany. Which will make it less of a strategic problem for either the West or Turkey than if they remained just as strong as they had been as a unified nation in the Soviet camp instead.
Uncertain what may happen (if anything) with a potential Turkish nuclear program. But given the circumstances and historical escape of German scientists to Turkey under Ataturk, it seemed to make sense.
Better than OTL, sure. Concerned about the German expropriations and the sacking of Litvinov, though. Not sure whether I’d want to carry along the path suggested by those decisions until Stalin pops it. Would seem like a wasted decade to me. (Though not for Russia of course…)
I've banked on them doing what they did to East Germany and would like to have done to all of it if they'd had the chance. Joe doesn't have the foresight (or our hindsight). Give him the chance to nobble Germany permanently? I've decided he's taking it.
Stalin"s on borrowed time due to several ticking health timebombs. Could be OTL seven years, could be within the 40s. Who knows? (I'd probably just roll the dice on this one @Bullfilter)
It's who's in his highest council and esteem that matters now. And who 'could' succeed him outside that group as well. If we get someone particularly gifted and far sighted, we'll be alright (and there are several of those in TTL). It's only if we're looking at the state terror contenders that we'll have problems.
It will be something like that, given in his case there aren't going to be any elections that might oust him before he kicks the bucket (or has it kicked for him).
Even if nuclear opens as energy source rather than a weapon, someone will use one for military because this world does not have the lessons of Hiroshima/Nagasaki. It is the equivalent of a child being told not to touch the hot stove, until someone gets burnt, no one know how devasting the result will be. I like the Italian regional breakup. As newer countries (mid 19th century formation), does Germany and Italy still have regional identifications (Tuscan, Bavarian, etc.) or is everyone German or Italian? Is the current grouping of Morocco/Algeria/Libya/Tunisia the best or should the area be divided differently than the traditional colonial areas? With earlier independence and guidance from Sunni Turkey, will there be less migration from North Africa to Western Europe? Unlike Russia, Turkey does not have a large enough core population base or economic might to finance a long-term military domination of the Balkans and Italy. Turkey needs to emphasize that it is the only Islamic Security Council member with a VETO, so that it can lead the emerging independent Islamic nations of Africa/Asia from Morocco to the Dutch East Indies. Turkey should probably correct their borders with additional land in Thrace, Macedonia, Aegean Islands and Cyprus.
Cuba will never enter the Soviet bloc in this timeline as Washington goes more isolationist and very hemispheric. Washington will be more neutral and help anyone who wishes to buy American.
Palestine may create more problems for the UK than India. Turkey will veto any independent area in the Middle East, so that even if Britain releases an independent Jewish nation, it will be always a rogue country with little international standing. The places that a Jewish state could go would be a lightly populated area of US, Canada, Australia or southern Africa (my best guess would be Rhodesia or Namibia). Will India have more or less than the current four divisions (including Sri Lanka)? There are many cultures/religions that would like their own area.
Thank you for the updates. I love the theory crafting and I hope that we can have some more great discussions.
True, nuclear energy is likely to get out at some point, but may be slower and more restricted in the ATL. Not sure how it will end up. Occupied and post-colonial developments will be fun and points of difference to how and when things happened in OTL. My jury is out on Cuba - and I'm not sure the story will even get that far. Palestine is bound to be ugly, India could go either way.
Well...if its anything like OTL, even if the Soviets initially view it as a bridge too far and an obvious massive slap in the face for US relations, Cuba is pretty hard for the US to influence without a full invasion, which would be unpopular at home and really hard to win.
I'm not sure whether the Soviets will be able to help themsevles if Cuba does have a big communist uprising and the US fails to crush it.
On the other hand...this would be a great opportunity to use the other comintern members and the organisation as a whole to influence world and US opinion. If the people of Cuba overthrown a dictator and wish to be communist let them (etc etc propaganda etc).
@TheButterflyComposer, double post? The US will emphasize the Western Hemisphere at the expense of Eurasia involvement. Probably less of a cold war with SU. Africa and South Pacific could be interesting.
Well, obviously, if the comintern can get the US to basically pull up the drawbridge, put their fingers in their ears and do nothing foe the next 50 years, acknowledging the Monroe doctrine is a small price to pay.
We'll even help them out with that, supporting efforts to decolonisation the carribbean and South amercia etc.
To be fair, I would have expected nothing less. Both countries and their respective leaders have gone through so much in step with one another.
This was somewhat encouraging. Although the UK doesn't want France to fall under Soviet influence, some kind of rapprochement with the Soviets would certainly have been desirable.
Ah... that was always going to happen to Poland, unfortunately.
I suppose he should consider himself fortunate? His fate could have been a lot worse.
We know the Soviets are going to continue to support Mao, but it does occur to me that Chiang could just end up getting material support from Japan in this timeline, given the renewed Soviet-Japanese tensions.
Of course! Who could possibly question the legitmacy of those polling numbers?
Seems reasonable enough. Uncle Joe has enough to keep him busy closer to home.
Again, inevitable, and German public opinion will just have to be changed!
Considering it was Turkey and the USSR who technically attacked Germany, this is a little harsh. Regardless, nobody whatsoever is going to speak up for Germany now...
This will be very useful indeed to Ankara! Science is the one area where the UGNR still lags behind the other great powers.
Some things change, some don't. Poland was always going to get it in the neck, alas. France's trajectory will be the subject of the next chapter. China? Well, who knows what will happen there! I have a few ideas but no decided outcome. Yes, true re Germany being attacked by the Comintern, but the Soviets and UGNR still had large parts of their territory over-run and then fought over fiercely for years. Stalin, harsh? Who would have guessed!
No reason not to be friendly to France, esepcially as unlike OTL, their empires collapse was not managed post war such that they bascially kept all of it or at least their influence and bases unaffected. TTL, France is a purely European nation surrounded by the comintern, with socialist sympathies itself. Much easier to talk to.
UK? Don't know. Probably not until after they get their final nose busting and imperial ambitions crushed at suez (or wherever).
US ambassador is a good call, keeps him around and no doubt if he survives stalin, will be useful to the next regime.
Japan really doesn't have the infrastructure and industry for that, not with its own still far too large army having to be everywhere at once. Chiang isn't in as bad a position as OTL but Japan still existing as an empire really hurts China, who has no one really to turn to now except the Soviets. Russia attempted approaching the Nationalists before, when they were in an awkward union with the socialists and communists. I doubt that's going to happen again though.
Though there's always the chance of a common front against the Communists or a taking advantage of a turned back by Chiang ... a reversal of what Mao did to Chiang during WW2!
Uncle Joe should've pushed for Inner Mongolia as well!
I hope UGNR had been able to attract some scientists etc from Germany, leadership has always been the most lacked resource for this game!
ditto
Yesss just as I was hoping! I'd like to note UGNR not only welcomes nuclear or rocket scientists but all forward thinking minds no matter the specialty be it theoretical or practical, positive or social sciences etc. Our friend and ally USSR already has a lot of scientists and engineers filling all the posts so German ones would've been redundant anyway. Comintern would be happy UGNR develop its technology to stay tough against the Allies!
Well, Inner Mongolia (Mengukuo) is still in Japanese hands and it wasn't asked for in OTL when it might have been even easier to demand. And Mao wouldn't have been happy! Glad to see we were thinking the same way re those scientists. I remembered the time you let me know about that pre-war time where many were accepted in Turkey that were escaping from Germany. Not sure how far or quickly any program may go, but there's a possibility ...
It wasn't a negotiation option but yeah, it slipped my mind. To be fair, I have no idea why Japan would bounce the Soviet Union over half of 1940s Mongolia...
Combined Comintern Nuclear Power Agrrement or Area? Very possible, especially as we can mine our own uranium.
Per above ... and if ii wasn't pushed for in the OTL context where the Soviets were in a far stronger position in Asia, then I think he and Molotov can be excused for not pushing it here.
To All: I got into the France story and decided there was much to tell there, some more electoral fun to be had and some sliding doors to be walked through. And despite not being one of the P5 and robbed of many of its colonies in this time line, France will be far from helpless, may actually do better without those colonies and the destructive conflicts they spawned and has some interesting directions it may travel. Maybe far even more US-French bonhomie than in OTL? More focus for reconstruction support now the US isn't looking to 'Marshall Plan' most of Western Europe, Japan, Philippines etc? Who knows.
So there's actually enough there for two shorter chapters (rather than cramming into one) with a post-Liberation recap, political and diplomatic developments post-Geneva and the set up for an electoral campaign that in brought forward a few month from OTL October to July 1945 (given the earlier end to the war). I hope (RL permitting) to get Part 1 out tomorrow, with part 2 being the election itself and the rest of 1945.
A brief recap of key developments in France as the war was ending will provide the background to the initial period of the Provisional Government of the French Republic (PGRF). We will also review the political climate in the months between the liberation of northern France and the conclusion of the Geneva Peace Conference. French reunification followed, accompanied by the permanent loss of much of the pre-war overseas colonies and protectorates that had fallen under the control of the Vichy regime.
Germany surrendered to Turkey (representing the Comintern) on 3 May 1944. The PGRF still only governed that northern part of metropolitan France that had been liberated by the British and the rest of northern France that had remained under direct German occupation at the time of their capitulation.
The Free French territories in Central Africa, the South Pacific and the tiny outpost at St Pierre and Miquelon just south of the British-governed island of Newfoundland had been retained throughout. Vichy France, never having joined the war, continued on as a neutral power.
Italy then also capitulated to Turkey on 18 May.
This was followed just 11 days later on 29 May by a Turkish declaration of war on Vichy France. In a strange twist, Germany (now provisionally the DDR, a Comintern puppet under Turkish control) was able to enforce Case Anton (an old Nazi plan) at midnight on 31 May, whereby its sleeper cells took control of almost all of southern France, except for those parts already occupied by France or Turkey and a couple of small Vichy pockets on the southern coast.
Southern France after the implementation of Case Anton on 31 May 1944, following the Turkish declaration of war on Vichy France and their joining of the Japanese-led Axis.
Vichy forces in Lebanon, Syria and North Africa also fought on against the Turks, but all Vichy resistance ended on 12 June 1944.
All of Vichy’s former overseas territories in North Africa, the Middle East, Guyana, Madagascar and Djibouti (but not Indochina, which had been occupied by Japan) fell under direct Turkish occupation. In southern France, some small British and Turkish pockets were retained, while Germany administered the rest under Turkish direction.
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Political Alignments in October 1944
By October 1944, the PGRF still administered liberated northern France and Free France from Paris, but it was not an elected body. Its creation in May 1944 had marked the official restoration and re-establishment of a provisional French Republic, assuring continuity with the pre-war French Third Republic.
The PGRF was a strange amalgam dominated by right-wing Action Française (Paternal Autocrat) ministers, with the President Henri-Honoré Giraud occupying the positions of President, Prime Minister and Chief of Staff. [Ironically, in-game Vichy under Petain was also run by Action Française. We’ll have to assume it was a different wing or – nuh, it’s a Paradox!] The main liberal opposition parties (the market liberal ARV and the social democrat SFIO) held a position each in Cabinet, running the Army and the Air Force.
But nominally – and most counter-intuitively [Paradox!] – national socialist and fascist sentiment still seemed to dominate French opinion in the liberated north. This was something Giraud was going to have to tackle as a matter of priority: he wanted to both root out the traitors and ultra-fascists, while gaining control of the remaining anti-Communist hard right of French politics. The main opposition to the right came from a loose coalition led by social democrats and liberals, plus a small but influential Stalinist faction, with whom Giraud was diametrically opposed in a political and ideological sense.
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French Diplomatic Relations in October 1944
At this time, French relations with the ‘Big Five’ world powers were generally good.
Despite the fact the US at that time was governed by a Democrat government that was not politically attuned to the rightists running France, relations were excellent. Perhaps it had something to do with the fact that they had nothing to resent them for, the US had helped Turkey to attack the Germans (a little, eventually, after the fall of France) and nor had they occupied any French overseas territories.
Giraud and Roosevelt meeting in Casablanca in late June 1944, after its fall to the Turks and the final Vichy surrender on 12 June.
The relationship with Churchill’s UK was also very strong. Most considered that the minimal ground support the British had provided to France in 1940 was due more to the weakness of their army and Chamberlain’s prevarication than to outright perfidy. The British had continued the war and eventually helped liberate northern France from Germany, ensuring the Republic had not fallen under Soviet domination. The UK also remained the most powerful member and leader of the Allied faction. And after Geneva, the Allies’ sole vote on the new Permanent Five members of the League of Nations Security Council, though the US also held such a veto vote: something of which the French were acutely aware.
Giraud and Churchill shake hands at the same meeting June 1944 in Casablanca. Both Churchill and Roosevelt would be voted out by their people in the post-war elections, the British election due just a few days after the French legislative election would be held. Did the same fate await Free France’s wartime leader?
Surprisingly, despite the loss of Indochina to Japan during GW2, relations with the Japanese were quite cordial, perhaps due more to ideological similarities in ruling cliques and the public sentiment of the time. France remained on cordial terms with the Soviets, who had after all joined Turkey in 1940 to attack the Germans in the east while France was still desperately fighting on.
At this time, relations between Turkey and France were professional but somewhat cool. This was attributed to the brave Turkish declaration of war and urging of the Soviets into the conflict in 1940 largely to help France stay in the war being offset by the occupation of much of France’s pre-war overseas empire by Turkey on the defeat of Vichy. And – until the Geneva Conference had resolved matters – the temporary holding of former Vichy southern France largely by the Turkish-dominated new German administration.
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The Aftermath of the Geneva Conference
After the Geneva Peace Conference in November 1944, all metropolitan France was re-unified under the control of the PGRF, with the support of Turkey and the vast majority of the participating powers. This partly improved French sentiment towards Turkey, though their retention of much many former French-administered territories and the liberation of the North African colonies still rankled.
After the Geneva Conference, France was reunified (dark blue, French flag) but the colonies in North Africa and the administered territories in the Middle East (light blue, Vichy flags) were lost, as were other Vichy-run colonies around the world.
This was the situation Giraud faced as head of the PGRF in the months following Geneva: a recently and shakily reunified France, some limited overseas colonies still under their control, a changed political make-up after the re-absorption of southern France and the need to move as quickly as possible to a new political arrangement.
Confronted with the reports of the residual strength of extreme fascist political strength in France, Giraud acted quickly after re-unification to shore up his own position as the leader of ‘legitimate’ right-wing conservatism in France. He issued a decree on 15 November to outlaw the PPF (national socialist) and Mouvement Franciste (fascist), which were both indelibly tarnished by their collaborationism during the German occupation. Their leaders and many members were arrested, along with many Vichy traitors. The next year would see them progressively tried for their crimes against France – and humanity.
Giraud now saw the principal mission of the PGRF being to prepare the ground for a new constitutional order that would result in the creation of the Fourth Republic. The interim cabinet would also, especially under the influence of the Allies, America and SFIO elements in the ‘unity’ government of the PGRF, make several important reforms and political decisions, such as granting women the right to vote and laying the groundwork of social security in France. Though Giraud tried to make the latter a minimalist program.
Giraud explicitly refused to declare a new republic from where the French Second and Third Republics had been declared. When Georges Bidault of the French Resistance said that he could declare the restoration of the Third Republic, the general replied that he could not, because the republic had never ceased to exist. All "constitutional acts, legislative or regulatory" taken by the Vichy government, as well as decrees taken to implement them, were declared null and void. At this stage anyway, Giraud and the AF kept fairly quiet about their monarchist beliefs, especially as they sought to enlist the support of conservative parties and voters closer than them to the centre.
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Domestic and International Events: December 1944 to June 1945
As noted in the chapter on Soviet developments, France and the Soviet Union signed a 20-year Treaty of Alliance and Mutual Assistance on 10 December, to help shore up Frances shaky security situation. And they hoped to ameliorate (in theory anyway) Communist agitation within France.
The treason trial of Philippe Petain began in January 1945 [it was later in OTL] as part of the épuration légale ("legal purge") official trials that followed the Liberation of France and the fall of the Vichy regime. The trials were designed to codify and bring under control the chaotic post-Liberation and then post-Reunification wave of executions, public humiliations, assaults and detentions of suspected collaborators, known as the épuration sauvage (wild purge).
Philippe Pétain, former head of the Vichy regime, during his trial in Paris on 30 January 1945. The 89-year-old Marshal was sentenced to death on 15 February but the sentence was commuted to life imprisonment.
On 20 March, France signed an economic pact with Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, who had all been liberated in 1944 as members of the Allies.
On 4 April Giraud [9 July and de Gaulle in OTL] proposed a national referendum to decide the system of government in France. The referendum and legislative elections were programmed for 21 July 1945 [October in OTL, but liberation in the ATL came some months earlier, so the timetable has been advanced].
Political views in France during 1945 were swinging between two poles. One the one side, a new centrism and even radical leftism and communism, as embraced by the Triple Alliance opposition coalition. This was contrasted with the still strong remaining stream of right-wing views that (with the discrediting of German-aligned national socialism and its association with French defeat and humiliation) now focused more on French nationalism and anti-communism. Both sides had resistance and Free French fighters within their ranks.
For the rest of April and through to July, the various political parties began to campaign. With the outlawing of the most overtly fascist parties in late 1944, the entry of women voters into the electorate and the re-integration of the south, political momentum had begun to turn more to the centre and left in France during the ‘New Spring’ of 1945.
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The Giraudists
Giraud’s wing of Action Française (AF) – by no means affable centrists themselves and [in TTL] better described as a far-right monarchist political movement – was able to capitalise heavily on this drift, forming a loose working coalition with their junior partner, the social conservatives of the Fédération Républicaine (FR). Giraud’s AF had [unlike in OTL, where views were split] unequivocally condemned Petain and the Vichy regime after Giraud and the nationalist wing of the party prevailed and Giraud took charge of the Free French government.
In OTL ActionFrançaise had been disbanded at this point and did not revive itself until 1947. The game has dealt us quite a different hand here. At least the worst of the treasonous Nazi sympathisers and collaborators have been banished post-game.
The Giraudist wing of ActionFrançaise needed to choose a proposed leader for its legislative party list who could credibly represent them in a post-GW2 world. General Henri d'Astier had risen to prominence in the immediate post-war period and was chosen by Giraud to be his standard bearer in the legislative elections. He believed that the republican form of government was inherently weak and ineffective and that France would be stronger under a traditional monarchy. When Great War II broke out, d'Astier was called back into active service.
Although d'Astier’s pre-war political views could be deemed close to fascism, he was also determined to see France stand as a strong nation. He therefore vehemently opposed the German invasion, in sharp contrast with the attitude of some of his ideological colleagues, who urged collaboration and alliance with the Nazis against a perceived threat from Communism.
After the French defeat in June 1940, d'Astier became active in the French Resistance. From 1942-43 he had been active in North Africa against the Vichy regime. In 1944, d'Astier returned to France via London to lead a 45-man detachment operating behind enemy lines to prepare the way for the British invasion of the Low Countries. He continued to fight in France until the German capitulation in May 1944, then regrouped and returned to operate behind Vichy lines again, paving the way for British forays there until Vichy fell.
French General Giraud, (Left) General d'Astier De La Vigerie (centre) and Captain Kieffer, Chief of French Commandos, visiting the Fighting French Head Quarters in London, 1943.
Having been clearly on the ‘right’ side of the war for its duration, d’Astier was chosen to lead the Giraudists to the crucial July 1945 election as their candidate for Prime Minister.
Interestingly, there is a bit of sliding door thing here where we turn part of history on its head while adapting another. Despite his surrender to the Allies after Operation Torch in November 1942, Vichy’s Admiral Darlan was soon assassinated by Fernand Bonnier de La Chapelle, a member of the Resistance. Although La Chapelle is believed to have acted alone, Henri Giraud who had taken over after Darlan accused the Resistance of organising the assassination, and he launched a crackdown.
Many of the key figures in the Resistance were arrested, and d'Astier went into hiding. He was found and arrested in early 1943. When Charles de Gaulle became the sole head of the Free French forces, d'Astier was released. Shortly thereafter, he was appointed to De Gaulle's Commission of National Defense. He, as that chain of events never happened and it was Giraud rather than de Gaulle who assumed sole leadership of the Free French, it is he who appoint d’Astier to his Commission and then picks him to head up the election effort.
In OTL his brother Emmanuel, a journalist but also a resistance member, had drifted further to the left, becoming interior minister in the GPRF and later running as an ally of the communists in legislative elections.
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The Conservatives
Founded in November 1903, the Republican Federation (Fédération Républicaine, FR) was the largest conservative party during the French Third Republic. They were characterised by their traditional Catholicism, anti-communism and conservative nationalism. The FR was part of one of the six member parties of the Conseil National de la Résistance (National Council of Resistance), represented by Jacques Debû-Bridel [we’ll assume they were more vigorous opponents of the Vichy regime than they were, which then undermined their post-war credibility].
Louis Marin was a leading member of the Republican Federation, which he had chaired from 1925. He had been deputy for Meurthe-et-Moselle since 1905 and minister several times under the Third Republic. An old man but still politically active in 1945, he had [in OTL to a certain extent, more in the ATL] opposed the idea of an armistice with Germany in 1940 and advocated all-out war within the cabinet led by Paul Reynaud. He left his post as Minister of State when Pétain replaced Reynaud. He opposed those members of the FR who had collaborated and retained strong US support in the post-war period.
Marin was exfiltrated to London by the British to escape arrest by the Germans during the war and saw the FR join the CNR. In July 1945 Giraud envisaged him playing the role of the elder and experienced statesman supporting the more dynamic leader of the senior coalition partner, but he and his party performed surprisingly well in the lead-up to the election campaign.
Louis Marin (b. 7 February 1871), FR leader, seen here in a picture from the 1930s.
Alongside Debû-Bridel, Louis Marin managed to reform the FR on Liberation in 1944 [in OTL this fizzled, though Marin remained an elected politician after the war], in part with the support of the Giraudists, who wanted a coalition partner of their own to oppose the more leftists Triple Alliance. Old Marin agreed to the arrangement. He retained leadership of the FR and they were soon receiving much of the support that was drifting from the hard right back to the traditional conservative anti-communist camp after GW2.
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The ‘Triple Alliance’ (Leftist) Opposition
Ranged against the coalition of the Giraudists and their conservative allies were the resurgent leftists, led by the SFIO (French Section of the Workers International or Section Française de l'Internationale Ouvrière). The Communists of the Stalinist PCF (Parti Communiste Français) and the liberals of the MRP (Mouvement Républicain Populaire) joined in a tripartite political alliance with the SFIO to oppose the Giraud-led rightists.
Left: Maurice Thorez (b. 28 April 1900) long-time leader of the French Communist Party (PCF) from 1930. Centre: Maurice Schumann (b. 10 April 1911) journalist, writer and hero of the Second Great War and President of the Christian democratic Popular Republican Movement (MRP). Right: Guy Mollet (b. 31 December 1905) led the socialist French Section of the Workers' International (SFIO) during the 1945 election campaign.
The Radical Socialists (Parti Radical-Socialiste) stood apart from this coalition, along with other Leftist independents.
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The stage was now set for the election and referendum that would set the scene for the French Fourth Republic.
AuthAAR’s Endnote: The following chapter will detail the electoral system and election campaign, its immediate aftermath and other domestic and international developments concerning France and Indonesia during the rest of 1945.
Uh...the Comintern was going to help the Left anyway (so it working together already is great) but we have bigger problems if the main guys in France are a mix of monarchies and fascists.
If there was one place in the world outside the amercias where an isolationist US would be happy propping up any super right win government or dictatorship to keep the reds out...
Thanks to those intrepid commenters on France's post-war adventure. It might be that as in the game, they just aren't interesting enough to draw heavy support!
Uh...the Comintern was going to help the Left anyway (so it working together already is great) but we have bigger problems if the main guys in France are a mix of monarchies and fascists.
As the campaign begins, or post-game universe is left illogically fascist than what we were left with and the Triple Alliance goes in with a very strong position and far better than even chance of winning. But the conservative-right remains far stronger than in OTL.
If there was one place in the world outside the amercias where an isolationist US would be happy propping up any super right win government or dictatorship to keep the reds out...
But the big move was the British-led Allied invasion of the Japanese Home Islands in early November 1945. By January, significant progress had been made and a firm beachhead established.
Sadly this is pretty typical. Once (if) the war in Europe ends, the AI naval great powers direct all their focus towards Japan, and AI Japan never garrisons the home islands, nor is there any logistical problem with the Allies launching a naval invasion from a port 5,000 km away.
As the Geneva Conference ended, the same government that had run Turkey and the UGNR for the war years remained in place. Even though the governing CHP - seen as a right-wing autocracy that conducted no elections - remained in power, its popular support was languishing. It retained a slight plurality over the conservative Millet Partisi and the social democrats of the TIP but had barely a quarter of the Turkish community’s support after long years of war, despite Turkey’s hard-won successes.
This is a great example of where the HoI3 political system is bollocks. In most of these countries with parliamentary systems, the overall popular support of the government should be pretty high after a victorious war, but that government would be made up from multiple parties in a coalition. Instead we have a party with ~1/4 popularity running the entire government, which...works, I guess, we're not simulating legislatures here, but it is rather hack-job and incongruous.
Don't even get me started on the USA's nonsense...
On 3 December 1944 a series of clashes in Athens known as the Dekemvriana ("December events") began when Turkish troops and Greek GNR police opened fire on a massive nationalist [British v leftist in OTL] demonstration, killing 28 and wounding 100.
The Treaty of Varkiza was signed on 12 February 1945 in which the Greek resistance agreed to disarm and relinquish control of all the territory it occupied in exchange for legal recognition, free elections, and the removal of Nazi collaborators from the armed forces and police. But the unrest and dissatisfaction with what was seen as the ‘puppet’ pro-Turkish administration and UGNR tyranny was simply pushed underground and repressed, not eliminated.
In an opening speech to the Grand National Assembly on 1 November 1945, Milli Şef Inönü openly expressed the country's need for an opposition party. He welcomed Celal Bayar formally establishing the Democrat Party (DP) as a legal entity, which separated from CHP in early January 1946.
This is likely to be the high point of Turkish democratic politics, it is only downhill from here into a vast swamp of backbiting, mudslinging, and general power grabs of questionably ethical nature.
This would see them begin to develop the concept of an international ‘Third Way’ which Turkey would lead in an attempt to forge their own path in the emerging multi-polar world order
[In OTL it was announced it would not be renewed and Turkey responded by rejecting Soviet demands for territorial concessions and a revision of the Montreux Convention.]
The fact it formed and reached across international political boundaries and spheres of interest was a sign of a new drive for regional autonomy among both Turkish and British controlled territories and autonomous states and that neither Turkey nor Britain believed they should (or could) stand in its way.
In fairness, they will not be able to make much noise until they discover a more modern form of communication than the pencil pit. For starters, they may need to develop paper-making technology.
Southern Italy was soon taken over by the Turkish-backed Mafia supremo Vito Corleone,
He and the Turkish overlords of the GNR soon had a working relationship in place, with essentially a criminal-police state fusion running the southern part of the peninsula, Sicily and Sardinia with an iron fist.
This will be a major black mark against Turkey, not only allowing but endorsing the creation of a mafia state in her own backyard. This can only end badly and Turkey will take the hits.
They can be safe and free within the democratic umbrella of UGNR, or be imperial subjects of UK, or be stray lambs and be grabbed piecemeal by imperial powers.
Leave it to the British to think that Nazism, which they just fought a war over (for a loose definition of "fought), is a good idea the second time around. I guess the logic would be that the British, being genetic superiors to the world, could do it better? Sillypants in any case.
Shortly following the end of the war and before the Geneva Conference ended, the British Labour Party decided at a meeting in Blackpool on 21 October 1944 to withdraw its support for Winston Churchill's coalition government, though this did not immediately force a national election. The ostensible reason was Churchill’s “obtuse, unreasoned and unreasoning” insistence that India be retained as part of the Empire in defiance of the will of the Geneva Conference.
There was also public disquiet in the UK about surrendering Burma to Japanese dominance, where British military advice had been confident it could have eventually been regained if the war had continued, with the Japanese under increasing Soviet pressure in that massive land front to the north.
But it was another blow for Churchill: the whole war had supposedly been triggered by the desire to preserve Polish independence and now it was falling under Stalin’s domination.
The Nordic League having twice the support of the BUF is astounding. The idea that either of them survived the war at all is an uncanny reminder that Britain’s was really just a protracted phoney war
An estimated 1,000 men were involved in the operations. Approximately fifty Palmach units, which included sappers and guard, severely damaged 153 points along the railway system in Mandate Palestine, primarily at railway junctions and bridges above them.
People will be comparing a British minister of questionable competence (aren't they all?) to a totalitarian dictator who murdered millions of his own people and is likely, even in this ATL, to allow his own paranoia to drive him to transform Europe into a system of tributary buffer states? Fascinating...
Now comparing him to a shadowy demonic horror I could see, he is after all a British politician.
Japan is in a pickle. [...] As long, of course, as the US sees Communism as more evil than Japanese imperialism Japan might do very well for themselves.
I found the doomstacks in this and the Q&D games to be rather counter-productive much of the time, due to the stacking penalties. Flanking with corps-sized stacks on more than two sides if possible, plus concentrated application of air power, seemed to work best in heavily concentrated/high density fronts, while in more fluid ones the 'RAW' approach worked well. Let me know if you ever develop HOI3+!
Broadly agreed here, doomstacking is one of the things I think HoI3 mostly manages to mitigate and disincentivize, possibly better than almost any other wargame on this scale I've seen while not going to the other extreme like Civ 5 did with the one-unit-per-tile stupidity (that works fine in other settings but not at global scales).
This ploy provided an excuse for Western nations to tacitly approve the fait accompli of Poland becoming part of the Soviet sphere of influence, and to legitimise the Warsaw government while withdrawing their recognition of the Polish government-in-exile.
Pathetic. My expectations for the Western governments are always hilariously low, but this is even worse (albeit, though not noted as such, I imagine as in OTL?).
A referendum to officially assert independence from China was held in the Mongolian People's Republic on 20 October 1945. According to the Soviet election supervisors, voter turnout was 98.5% and it was approved by 100% of voters, with no votes against, according to official statistics.
But first, the Soviets began a harsh program of extracting war reparations through the disassembly of German industry. Soviet troops, organised in specialised "trophy" battalions, removed millions of tons of materials and equipment, as well as large quantities of agricultural produce.
The Soviets wasted no time in starting to dismantle much of Germany’s industrial base that had not been destroyed in GW2. This caused great hardship across Germany through 1945 and afterwards and weakened it significantly in all respects of economic and military capacity.
This sort of thing will put an early dreams to the impossible ideal of a Comintern utopia across Europe. The average German citizen will associate Communism with economic deprivation and vengeful looting of their nation, while the average citizen in other Soviet puppet states will be keenly aware that this could happen to them, too. I suspect it is not unlikely that the aftermath of the first anti-Soviet revolt, whenever that might be (e.g., OTL Hungary '56) will lead to a similar "trophy" operation and further reinforce this state of affairs. As in OTL this new Comintern will have an expiration date.
However, rumours would persist that a large number of German nuclear and rocket scientists had fled abroad during the Geneva Conference. Some would turn up in the US, but most would make their way to the UGNR.
It seems likely that its going to come down to who plays their cards better: the USSR or US. And in this case, I think it might be us just because the amercians are going to be a lot more desperate and demanding for control, given the lack of allies and vassals they have in Asia.
Bluntly, I think the Japanese have a better chance than the Americans of getting a positive outcome from Vietnam (and that is a low chance, I am under no illusion here). The Americans have no real presence in SE Asia after conceding the Philippines, so no basis and no serious interest in that region especially given their return towards isolationism at home.
Japan's best chance would be to support or at least allow independence and try to offer a friendly hand including economic assistance and ties, but I do not think the ultranationalist political machine in Tokyo nor the Army leadership would even think of such a thing. The Soviets do have the best chance to come out ahead in that region, long-term.
Yes, because everyone will believe the propaganda put out by the same foreign institution that just ransacked 60% of their economy. Prepare for a huge resurgence of pro-Nazi wartime mythologies stoking anti-Soviet sentiment for the foreseeable future, I think.
Even if nuclear opens as energy source rather than a weapon, someone will use one for military because this world does not have the lessons of Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
This is a key point. Even if people eventually test the bombs, the true destructive power will not be appreciated until they are used, and it is particularly likely that this first use will be as tactical weapons on the battlefield as was feared OTL during the Cold War. It is still 1945, so almost no one even understands the effects of radiation aside from a handful of scientists at top-secret joints like Los Alamos (and even then...).
As our authAAR says, it is Japanese territory, so even if Uncle Joe wants to push for it (and I'm sure he does - and will!), China is not the place to be doing so.
Please excuse me for replying to some of the longer comment emails in shorter form, but there's so much great comment to go through and real life has dealt me a few very serious curve balls over the last week or so. But I'm hoping a corner has been turned and I find writing and researching these episodes quite therapeutic, when I have the nervous energy to do them.
I've banked on them doing what they did to East Germany and would like to have done to all of it if they'd had the chance. Joe doesn't have the foresight (or our hindsight). Give him the chance to nobble Germany permanently? I've decided he's taking it.
In a strange twist, Germany (now provisionally the DDR, a Comintern puppet under Turkish control) was able to enforce Case Anton (an old Nazi plan) at midnight on 31 May, whereby its sleeper cells took control of almost all of southern France, except for those parts already occupied by France or Turkey and a couple of small Vichy pockets on the southern coast.
But nominally – and most counter-intuitively [Paradox!] – national socialist and fascist sentiment still seemed to dominate French opinion in the liberated north.
Most considered that the minimal ground support the British had provided to France in 1940 was due more to the weakness of their army and Chamberlain’s prevarication than to outright perfidy.
Thanks to those intrepid commenters on France's post-war adventure. It might be that as in the game, they just aren't interesting enough to draw heavy support!
As the campaign begins, or post-game universe is left illogically fascist than what we were left with and the Triple Alliance goes in with a very strong position and far better than even chance of winning. But the conservative-right remains far stronger than in OTL.
It is a consequence of the combination between Paradox's political model which tends to move towards a roughly uniform equilibrium (i.e., every party having about the same support, in a vacuum) and Germany being spoilt with more leadership riches than the AI knows what to do with and putting an awful lot of it into spies which promote fascism and Nazism in Allied countries over the course of the game. The Soviets do not have so much leadership for spies and so you do not see as many gains by the leftists in as many places.
And so the Epilogue slides slowly but surely towards its end, at least for this AAR... though I suspect that once all is said and done, this Epilogue will itself be a full-length AAR of its own!
This is a key point. Even if people eventually test the bombs, the true destructive power will not be appreciated until they are used, and it is particularly likely that this first use will be as tactical weapons on the battlefield as was feared OTL during the Cold War. It is still 1945, so almost no one even understands the effects of radiation aside from a handful of scientists at top-secret joints like Los Alamos (and even then...).
Lovely to have you back on the boards again, my friend. Remember, I'm retired, so to paraphrase a memorable Maggie Smith (Lady whatever-her-name-was) from Downton Abbey: "And what is a 'holiday'?"
Sadly this is pretty typical. Once (if) the war in Europe ends, the AI naval great powers direct all their focus towards Japan, and AI Japan never garrisons the home islands, nor is there any logistical problem with the Allies launching a naval invasion from a port 5,000 km away.
It seems so. Which leaves me a bit conflicted: to me is a bit anti-climactic, but then it is revenge for Japan always doing it to Australia and is an actual example of the AI executing a sustained amphibious campaign. <shrugs uncertainly> My main surprise in this case was that the RN was able to sustain the landing given how ferociously it had been mauled by the IJN in the years before and having no US support for the exercise. <shrugs again, even more uncertainly).
This is a great example of where the HoI3 political system is bollocks. In most of these countries with parliamentary systems, the overall popular support of the government should be pretty high after a victorious war, but that government would be made up from multiple parties in a coalition. Instead we have a party with ~1/4 popularity running the entire government, which...works, I guess, we're not simulating legislatures here, but it is rather hack-job and incongruous.
Don't even get me started on the USA's nonsense...
Yes, you would have noticed I spent much of the chapters on the US, UK and France having to game-plausibly as I could completely reverse the incongruous or plain silly political outcomes provided in late 1944. Of course, the political aspect (I can't bring myself to call it a 'system') in HOI3 is a once-over-lightly afterthought and in a way that's fair enough, given what it was trying to simulate.
But the fact it seems to start with such detail and promise (swathes of parties and ministers, albeit many names derived from random sources) and then the research and mechanics fall over flatters to disappoint. Especially for a bunch of picky and detail-obsessed AAR writers and commentators a decade+ after the original commercial game was closed off!
Yes, they surely wouldn't get an easy run with all this once things have settled down and, particularly in the UGNR annexed states, the wartime occupation drags into peace time.
This is likely to be the high point of Turkish democratic politics, it is only downhill from here into a vast swamp of backbiting, mudslinging, and general power grabs of questionably ethical nature.
Maybe be, could go in a few different directions which either mimic or depart from the OTL experience, given the far wider canvass and different conquering experiences of TTL. But there's bound to be a fair bit of the above no matter which path is taken. The above could describe many democratic nation experiences too, in differing degrees of venom and violence!
This will be a major black mark against Turkey, not only allowing but endorsing the creation of a mafia state in her own backyard. This can only end badly and Turkey will take the hits.
It is part of that strange narrative dichotomy that grew up in the AAR: a mix of altruistic and publicly professed desire to do the right thing (of course as defined by the leadership) mixed with a strong undercurrent of violent, asocial and at times demonic criminal conspiracy. The duality of man indeed!
People will be comparing a British minister of questionable competence (aren't they all?) to a totalitarian dictator who murdered millions of his own people and is likely, even in this ATL, to allow his own paranoia to drive him to transform Europe into a system of tributary buffer states? Fascinating...
Now comparing him to a shadowy demonic horror I could see, he is after all a British politician.
Broadly agreed here, doomstacking is one of the things I think HoI3 mostly manages to mitigate and disincentivize, possibly better than almost any other wargame on this scale I've seen while not going to the other extreme like Civ 5 did with the one-unit-per-tile stupidity (that works fine in other settings but not at global scales).
I reckon so. And yes, I too thought that was a strange over-reaction in Civ 5 (my favourite version, despite some things that could have been improved, was Civ 4).
Pathetic. My expectations for the Western governments are always hilariously low, but this is even worse (albeit, though not noted as such, I imagine as in OTL?).
This sort of thing will put an early dreams to the impossible ideal of a Comintern utopia across Europe. The average German citizen will associate Communism with economic deprivation and vengeful looting of their nation, while the average citizen in other Soviet puppet states will be keenly aware that this could happen to them, too. I suspect it is not unlikely that the aftermath of the first anti-Soviet revolt, whenever that might be (e.g., OTL Hungary '56) will lead to a similar "trophy" operation and further reinforce this state of affairs. As in OTL this new Comintern will have an expiration date.
I think pretty realistic again, as pretty much all I did was extrapolate to the whole of post-Geneva Germany what Stalin did to the East. This Germany will not the lure of reunification as an ideal, won't have the post-war democratisation and prosperity of the West to inspire or strengthen it, etc etc. Looks to me more like a post-WW1 Germany except under the boot of a hated occupier that most Germans will also revile culturally and politically. Doesn't sound like a recipe for halcyon days, does it?
Bluntly, I think the Japanese have a better chance than the Americans of getting a positive outcome from Vietnam (and that is a low chance, I am under no illusion here). The Americans have no real presence in SE Asia after conceding the Philippines, so no basis and no serious interest in that region especially given their return towards isolationism at home.
Japan's best chance would be to support or at least allow independence and try to offer a friendly hand including economic assistance and ties, but I do not think the ultranationalist political machine in Tokyo nor the Army leadership would even think of such a thing. The Soviets do have the best chance to come out ahead in that region, long-term.
I think Japan's big problem may not necessarily be the various brush fires threatening to spark into conflagrations individually (though each can pose enormous problems, especially in China), but the number of them brewing simultaneously, their lack of strategic friends and the grave threat that the Soviets pose, lurking there in the north. The Japanese have a tight-rope to tread. One fall ...
Yes, because everyone will believe the propaganda put out by the same foreign institution that just ransacked 60% of their economy. Prepare for a huge resurgence of pro-Nazi wartime mythologies stoking anti-Soviet sentiment for the foreseeable future, I think.
This is a key point. Even if people eventually test the bombs, the true destructive power will not be appreciated until they are used, and it is particularly likely that this first use will be as tactical weapons on the battlefield as was feared OTL during the Cold War. It is still 1945, so almost no one even understands the effects of radiation aside from a handful of scientists at top-secret joints like Los Alamos (and even then...).
It will evolve a bit differently, and more slowly, than in OTL, but something will have to give. If you think about it, all the OTL UNSC P5 members were or became nuclear powers. As well as some more on top of them (whether big, reactive or rogue players, in later years). Is it going to become a similar kind of pre-requisite for TTL?
Very much so now. A dreadful few days with two things coming almost simultaneously on top of each other, but both either have proven not to be nearly as bad as feared and thought at the time. It's not like we really needed reminding, having negotiated some harrowing times with something else around 10-12 years ago, but fate can happen to anyone. As a friend said to me recently, having heard this from a counsellor: "Why me? Well, why not?" Luck, patience, resilience, compassion and hard work are all you can hope for/try to maintain. The the Norns will have their say.
Sometimes one has to perform the most intricate mental gymnastics to adapt some silly game artefact into the semblance of a credible narrative. But that's half the fun, isn't it?
It is a consequence of the combination between Paradox's political model which tends to move towards a roughly uniform equilibrium (i.e., every party having about the same support, in a vacuum) and Germany being spoilt with more leadership riches than the AI knows what to do with and putting an awful lot of it into spies which promote fascism and Nazism in Allied countries over the course of the game. The Soviets do not have so much leadership for spies and so you do not see as many gains by the leftists in as many places.
Yes, it can be largely ignored during the game, not so much when doing narrative forays, even less when departing the game entirely into a purely narrative epilogue.
And so the Epilogue slides slowly but surely towards its end, at least for this AAR... though I suspect that once all is said and done, this Epilogue will itself be a full-length AAR of its own!
Oh, I think these major immediate post-war chapters are going to be the bulk of the epilogue in terms of size and content. Setting up the broad post-war world of the biggest players and the global security situation and new LN architecture. One France and the US are completed up to the end of 1945, it will really skip over into a light review of subsequent events, through to a point I'll decide on. But at this stage, I have no plans of going into the 60s, which will probably be left to general reader speculation. But I'll keep going while I'm having fun with it and people are still following.
Lovely to have you back on the boards again, my friend. Remember, I'm retired, so to paraphrase a memorable Maggie Smith (Lady whatever-her-name-was) from Downton Abbey: "And what is a 'holiday'?"
It seems so. Which leaves me a bit conflicted: to me is a bit anti-climactic, but then it is revenge for Japan always doing it to Australia and is an actual example of the AI executing a sustained amphibious campaign. <shrugs uncertainly>
Indeed. For all the complaints about the AI, a solid 70% or so could be resolved if the theater-level AI had even been given a cursory ability to prioritize different fronts and redistribute forces effectively. The remainder being made up of things like not garrisoning islands with SHARM or actually using specialist troops in their specialist terrain types, but we shouldn't ask for too much all at once. Alas...
This Germany will not the lure of reunification as an ideal, won't have the post-war democratisation and prosperity of the West to inspire or strengthen it, etc etc. Looks to me more like a post-WW1 Germany except under the boot of a hated occupier that most Germans will also revile culturally and politically. Doesn't sound like a recipe for halcyon days, does it?
If Germany ever becomes remotely independent of Comintern boot-heels, WW3 is likely to start up, this time headed in the easterly direction and I cannot imagine the West will be nearly as quick to intervene.
At the least we will require some blurb about the eventual collapse of the Soviet system, otherwise TBC will be nothing but insufferable until the end of time. Some might argue that this is inevitable anyways, but I say we must at least try to stand against evil.
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Chapter 249: France and Indonesia – July to December 1945
Chapter 249: France and Indonesia – July to December 1945
1945 French Legislative Assembly Election Campaign
The proposed arrangement after the election was for Giraud to remain as President until the next election for that position could be held, but the next Prime Minister of the Provisional Government would be selected by the elected assembly. Giraud would not be eligible but he would retain his position as direct commander in chief of the armed forces. He was not going to be relinquishing his full powers yet, until he had tried to ‘guide’ things in the ‘correct’ direction.
Since the restoration of France after November 1944, Giraud had been careful to identify himself and his party more with the traditional conservative side of French politics and excoriated both the Nazi German occupation and the ‘treasonous disaster’ of the Petain-led Vichy regime. As the long-time commander of the Free French government and armed forces and seen as a symbol of French liberation. The France's success in regaining its occupied metropolitan territory at Geneva, plus the December 1944 treaty with the Soviets had legitimised his movement in the eyes of some – but not all.
The anniversary of Liberation Day came around on 3 May 1945. Crowds gathered in the Champs-Élysées to celebrate, as they had done the year before. Conveniently, right when the election campaign was in full swing. Of course, Giraud tried to milk this for all it was worth, as did those from the left of the resistance movement. Who would prove the more persuasive?
Bringing Marin and his ‘classical Right’ conservatives of the Third Republic into a Giraudist coalition proved a wise move, both for the additional legitimacy it conveyed but also, practically, the numbers he would need to match the Triple Alliance of the left, who began the campaign in a far stronger position in popularity as measured by the rudimentary polling available at the time.
Henri d'Astier de La Vigerie (b. 11 September 1897), French soldier, Résistance member and conservative politician, seen here during the 1945 election campaign.
On the other side, the SFIO, PCF and MRP were resurgent during this period and were polling strongly as the campaign began. They had done much to reverse the initial pro-fascist outlook of the French electorate left over from 1944 with new ideas about what post-war France should look like. In essence, the creation of a welfare state, and the nationalisation of banks and major industrial companies.
But as polling day approached, though the Triple Alliance were starting from a position of great strength, wild fluctuations of sentiment were possible and no side could be certain of the trend, let alone the result.
---xxx---
Election Mechanics
As a global proportional representation system this French legislative election was simpler to simulate. First, I had the ‘traditional’ task of reinterpreting the pretty outlandish HOI3-generated political popularity figures, turning them into something more realistic. I took a similar approach to the UK election, generally averaging the HOI3 popularity with the in this case 21 October OTL French election results. Also, I eliminated the national socialists and fascists, transferring their popularity percentages to the AF and the Conservatives instead. With around 20 million votes cast in the OTL elections, the adjusted percentages were then applied to that to give indicative vote numbers.
This gave five major parties of broadly similar strength to signify their standings as the campaign started.
Given the two main political groupings in this ATL setting, it showed the leftist Three-Party Alliance (the convincing winners of the OTL poll) with a very large advantage – nearly 20% when grouped – and on track to secure a majority in the new legislature.
Estimated popularity of the two main political groupings as the election campaign commenced.
Keeping it (relatively) simple and using a similar approach to the other two TT elections so far, I adopted the following national swing table for the old % dice. The percentages would be applied in full as rolled for each party, with some wide swings possible for a bit of excitement, but applied with the same chances for each. It could therefore lead to an even larger Leftist landslide, a status quo, or swing back the other way. There was no built-in probability to even things up again with some bias towards the Giraudists.
So, if a party had 15% and got a swing of 6%, that would give it 21% of the notional 20 million votes. With each rolling separately and not related to the others, that would give a new total of votes either above or below the starting 20 million in total. In this case, it ended up at around 21,872,000m, so turnout was a bit higher than in OTL. It could have gone the other way. That new total would then be used to determine the seats for each party in the proportional representation system that was adopted. I won’t reveal the workings of that until later, after the election result is presented.
Out of interest, here are the results of the OTL 21 October 1945 elections. It was a pretty crushing win for the Triple Alliance, which together polled over 70% of the vote, but distributed quite evenly between the three members. In this case, de Gaulle continued to hold the post of Prime Minister independently.
---xxx---
The Election of July 1945
On 21 July 1945 the promised legislative elections were held in France to elect a Constituent Assembly to draft a constitution for a Fourth Republic. Women and soldiers were allowed to vote – women for the first time. 522 assembly members were elected through proportional representation.
The election was accompanied by a constitutional referendum asking whether the new Assembly would serve as a Constituent Assembly, and whether the country would be governed according to a certain proposed set of laws until such time as a new constitution was approved. Both measures passed by large margins.
Women exercising their vote on 25 July 1945 for the first time in a national French election.
As the results began to be tabulated, it became clear that some major trends were emerging. The already small ARV vote had collapsed completely. The independent Left-Wing Radicals had received an appreciable swing in their favour, enough to give them a decent block of seats in the new assembly. The MRP (liberals) had notionally had managed to increase their raw vote by a few hundred thousand but due to the larger turn-out had a marginally smaller proportion of the overall vote.
The bigger trends were felt on both the Left and the Right. The Communists had suffered some backlash, with a significant national swing against them. They retained more popularity than they had in October 1944, but considerably less than they had been polling at the start of the campaign and far less than they had expected. The SFIO had seem a similar sized swing against them as well, going from marginally the most popular at the campaign start to fourth place, a little behind their MRP alliance partners.
On the Right, the Giraudists had received a large swing in their favour, leaving them with over 27% of the vote and the largest single party in the new Assembly. It would fall to the performance of the Conservatives led by the venerable Louis Marin. In the event, they received the largest swing in their favour of any party at the election (10% raw, adjusted to almost 8% after accounting for the overall increase in votes). This would leave them as the second largest party in the Assembly.
But was it enough to give the Giraudist-Conservative coalition a plurality against the Alliance, let alone a majority once the hostile bloc of independent Leftist Radical deputies was factored in? The result would go down to the wire.
In the event, the Giraudist Coalition polled a combined total of 50.2% of the vote. This gave them the barest possible majority in the new Assembly. The loss of a single vote would see it split evenly, two would render them a minority government (at best) or cause the Provisional Government to fall and force a shift to the Left if the Radicals (naturally ferociously opposed to the rightists) decided to support the Alliance.
The full election table, with the raw swings and final proportions and seat allocations.
As it happened, the conservatives had some outrageous good luck luck while two of the three Alliance partners got nasty swings against them. The RNG Gods had spoken and it went in the opposite direct than it would go a couple of days later in the UK.
That said, it was no landslide and Giraud would have a tricky time ahead. It also meant some subtlety was likely to be required when the new constitutional and governance arrangements were put into place. This would put a break on the more extreme elements of AF who may still harbour monarchist views.
In any case, Henri d'Astier was sworn in by Giraud after a rowdy first meeting of the Constituent Assembly in early August. Together, they would have to start developing the new constitutional and governance arrangements than would form the basis of the French Fourth Republic.
---xxx---
Other Events: August-December 1945
Indonesia declared her independence from the Netherlands on 17 Aug 1945, initiating the Indonesian National Revolution.
Bendera Pusaka, the first Indonesian flag, is raised on 17 August 1945.
The next day Sukarno became first President of Indonesia.
Sukarno, born Koesno Sosrodihardjo, on 6 June 1901 was an Indonesian statesman, orator, revolutionary and nationalist. Here, he declares Indonesian independence in the aftermath of the Geneva Peace Conference, which had restored Indonesia to full Dutch control as part of the peace deal with the Allies. The Indonesian revolutionaries were not going to stand for that.
France ratified the new League of Nations Charter on 31 August.
The Indonesian People's Army declared war on the Netherlands on 14 October 1945.
Javanese revolutionaries armed with bamboo spears and a few old Japanese rifles, October 1945.
Pierre Laval, the French Prime Minister from July to December 1940 and from April 1942 to August 1944, had fled to Francoist Spain. Franco sent him back to Innsbruck in Austria, which was part of the U.S. Occupation Zone. Laval was handed over to the French authorities and his trial started in October 1945. In a hasty, rancorous trial, he was sentenced by an openly hostile jury to death on 9 October 1945 and executed a week later.
Pierre Laval (28 June 1883 – 15 October 1945) at his trial, October 1945.
So...social left is popular and can probably win the next election, which might be very soon depending on what the government does (the remaining colonial issues are going to be pretty disastrous, I'd wager).
Indonesia going red or at least anti-west would be great for us, and they're also likely to be super anti-Japan, which gives us even more potential friends in the Pacific.
In a strange twist, Germany (now provisionally the DDR, a Comintern puppet under Turkish control) was able to enforce Case Anton (an old Nazi plan) at midnight on 31 May, whereby its sleeper cells took control of almost all of southern France, except for those parts already occupied by France or Turkey and a couple of small Vichy pockets on the southern coast.
Most considered that the minimal ground support the British had provided to France in 1940 was due more to the weakness of their army and Chamberlain’s prevarication than to outright perfidy.
Giraud acted quickly after re-unification to shore up his own position as the leader of ‘legitimate’ right-wing conservatism in France. He issued a decree on 15 November to outlaw the PPF (national socialist) and Mouvement Franciste (fascist), which were both indelibly tarnished by their collaborationism during the German occupation. Their leaders and many members were arrested, along with many Vichy traitors.
It's possible these far-right movements won't go quietly and Giraud might have to face down some degree of violent backlash at home. However, just about everybody should applaud his actions internationally.
As noted in the chapter on Soviet developments, France and the Soviet Union signed a 20-year Treaty of Alliance and Mutual Assistance on 10 December, to help shore up Frances shaky security situation. And they hoped to ameliorate (in theory anyway) Communist agitation within France.
Giraud’s wing of Action Française (AF) – by no means affable centrists themselves and better described as a far-right monarchist political movement – was able to capitalise heavily on this drift, forming a loose working coalition with their junior partner, the social conservatives of the Fédération Républicaine (FR). Giraud’s AF had unequivocally condemned Petain and the Vichy regime after Giraud and the nationalist wing of the party prevailed and Giraud took charge of the Free French government.
Ranged against the coalition of the Giraudists and their conservative allies were the resurgent leftists, led by the SFIO (French Section of the Workers International or Section Française de l'Internationale Ouvrière). The Communists of the Stalinist PCF (Parti Communiste Français) and the liberals of the MRP (Mouvement Républicain Populaire) joined in a tripartite political alliance with the SFIO to oppose the Giraud-led rightists.
Hard to call this one. I sense Giraud has a credible chance, but the odds are favouring the leftist bloc. As always, a finely crafted blend of OTL fact and TTL fiction.
Given the two main political groupings in this ATL setting, it showed the leftist Three-Party Alliance (the convincing winners of the OTL poll) with a very large advantage – nearly 20% when grouped – and on track to secure a majority in the new legislature.
In the event, the Giraudist Coalition polled a combined total of 50.2% of the vote. This gave them the barest possible majority in the new Assembly. The loss of a single vote would see it split evenly, two would render them a minority government (at best) or cause the Provisional Government to fall and force a shift to the Left if the Radicals (naturally ferociously opposed to the rightists) decided to support the Alliance.
As you say, it couldn't have been any closer. This result will certainly make it difficult for Giraud and d'Astier to govern, even if things turned out far better than they dared hope for. If the Radicals were to join forces with the Alliance that creates two blocs with almost equal numbers (and an alternative administration) but of course the more parties there are in a coalition, the harder it is to keep everyone on the same page. For that matter, will the Alliance itself hold together in the wake of this heavy electoral reverse?
Basically what this tells me is that the first sign of things going wrong will lead to panic and overreaction, followed by the collapse of the government.
Whether that's strikes/financial problems rebuilding the country itself (and there would be lots. France fought a year long war on its own soil in the east, again. We'd be looking at ww1 levels of destruction in at least some areas) or in the colonial empire (and that is going to happen pretty soon because absolutely no one believes, correctly, that France can do anything to stop indepednance movements, the cancellation of debts, etc etc).
With each rolling separately and not related to the others, that would give a new total of votes either above or below the starting 20 million in total. In this case, it ended up at around 21,872,000m, so turnout was a bit higher than in OTL. It could have gone the other way.
Turns out that when your country does not suffer a violent invasion from the north coast through to the German border, you have more surviving population to do things like voting. Who knew?
As it happened, the conservatives had some outrageous good luck luck while two of the three Alliance partners got nasty swings against them. The RNG Gods had spoken and it went in the opposite direct than it would go a couple of days later in the UK.
Sukarno, born Koesno Sosrodihardjo, on 6 June 1901 was an Indonesian statesman, orator, revolutionary and nationalist. Here, he declares Indonesian independence in the aftermath of the Geneva Peace Conference, which had restored Indonesia to full Dutch control as part of the peace deal with the Allies. The Indonesian revolutionaries were not going to stand for that.
Japan welcomes this development as anything which contributes to the end of Western colonialism and the establishment of far-Eastern Asian identity (which Japan could exploit for commercial and diplomatic gain, of course) is a good thing.
Uhhhhh we just left them there by accident in the withdrawal, certainly we would never fund revolutionaries against a foreign government for our own ends, we are not Americans after all...
Indonesia going red or at least anti-west would be great for us, and they're also likely to be super anti-Japan, which gives us even more potential friends in the Pacific.
Highly unlikely. OTL, Japan supported Indonesian independence from the Dutch (actually making a promise to grant this in 1944, prior to the war's end) and a sizable number of Japanese soldiers contributed to the Indonesian ranks immediately after the war's conclusion. Given the recent occupation of parts of what will be Indonesia, relations may not be warm at first, but honestly the occupation was lesser in scope than in OTL so probably relations will warm up a good deal quicker.
That, plus the fact that Sukarno and the revolutionary leadership were not at all socialist let alone pro-Communist, and frankly it is too far from Russia proper for him to really care, given the much better opportunities he has on the East Asian mainland... I don't see it. Stalin does have an in with the Indonesian Communist Party but that's not likely to amount to much given OTL repression - which Japan is assuredly in favor of.
Seems to be the story of the day in the West. One can imagine that the combination of the world's most powerful leftist (USSR), democratic (USA), and rightist (Turkey) nations making up the "Comintern" leads to significantly more political confusion compared to OTL, as here it is not so clear that Nazi ideology lost their war especially with basically fascist Japan making out like bandits compared to OTL. After all, Nazi ideology did hold popular appeal based on nationalism, a lot of false promises and bombastic speeches, and unfortunately a whole lot of racism - much as it sadly does even in the modern day for some people.
Basically what this tells me is that the first sign of things going wrong will lead to panic and overreaction, followed by the collapse of the government.
Whether that's strikes/financial problems rebuilding the country itself (and there would be lots. France fought a year long war on its own soil in the east, again. We'd be looking at ww1 levels of destruction in at least some areas) or in the colonial empire (and that is going to happen pretty soon because absolutely no one believes, correctly, that France can do anything to stop indepednance movements, the cancellation of debts, etc etc).
Alternatively, if the rebuild is much easier compared to OTL it is not too unlikely that the conservative ruling coalition could solidify their positions with an effective rebuilding scheme. Granted, this requires a French government to be effective at something, so yes, I agree, we'll give them a year at best.
If the world’s topsy-turvy enough to give the UK an even bigger Labour landslide, I suppose there’s always room for the largest Stalinist party in the west to cock up an historic starting advantage. Hopefully the French will do what they do best and we’ll have picket-line barbecues and striking ballerinas outside the Opéra National before the year is out.
With more Soviet support, Japanese support, and even Turkish support for the Indonesians, I would wager this ATL war of independence will be much less in the Netherland's favour than the OTL one, and that's saying something.
As for France, it's an interesting swap to have Giraud front and centre. One might argue that the French have not yet forgotten Giraud's hopeful radio London broadcasts full of national pride and promises of a return to the strong, proud, and peaceful society that existed (in their minds) during the 'belle époque' (or even before 1870, but saying that would have gone against the majority republican public opinion...). After years of occupation, they want France to be a great nation again. Of course, they disagree on whether to go back to the old glory of the French Nation, or to start from scratch and build a new system that emulates the Soviet one, but with French characteristics. Giraud's victory is crucial here as it allows his coalition to build the structure of the post-war French state, thereby setting the framework within which all the next governments will operate. (until they manage to overturn it, of course).
I'm loving the twists and turns of these elections, and how they are shaping a complex post-war ecosystem. A leftist France would have been too easy, rallying towards the Comintern, making Europe into even more of a Socialist continent, and isolating the Benelux. With France still clearly on the side of the Allies, one could easily see a smaller, but significant third block develop on a continent partitioned between Turkey and the Soviets. France, the Benelux, with British support, and maybe Spain, could turn out really strong. Good relations with the Americans are a plus, and without a Western Germany to spend it on, American money is going to be pouring into France as THE European bastion against Communism. I see good times ahead for the French, unless their own politics destroy every advantage they currently possess, which is always very much possible with France.
As it happened, the conservatives had some outrageous good luck luck while two of the three Alliance partners got nasty swings against them. The RNG Gods had spoken and it went in the opposite direct than it would go a couple of days later in the UK.
that was a very bad result, but at least it's not a landslide. Internal divisions and tensions in an Allied nation is always good but as UGNR we've always seen France as more sympathetic and harmless. The real enemy is the UK.
