The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

[Wraith11B]

I'm a day late at my location, but given the speed of this AAR, I'm right on schedule:

Happy ELEVENTH Anniversary, @El Pip!

I think if you posted any slower, you'd wind up going backwards in time.

 

[El Pip]

Test matches count. County and Shield Cricket and whatever passes for 1st class matches in NZ count.

As I said, the rest is just Opium for the masses!

Now, back on topic - you're boring our American friends...

At least we can all agree T20 doesn't count for anything.

No doubt this is here to imply that in this time line that Hitler will have a full fledged Teutonic Cricket team that will cause the Prussians and the Anglo to reform their age old friendship of disliking Russians and French and a formation of a Channel Pact that will be forged through football and cricket hand in hand on both battlefield and on the sport stadium.

You can't deny it would be an interesting timeline, particularly as a Hitler who liked Cricket would be a completely different individual - for instance the alt-Nuremberg laws would be mainly focused on bowlers who chuck and similar cricket related crimes.

Don't forget a shared distrust of anyone slightly colored...

That would be much more an American problem.

I'm a day late at my location, but given the speed of this AAR, I'm right on schedule:

Happy ELEVENTH Anniversary, @El Pip!

I think if you posted any slower, you'd wind up going backwards in time.

Bloody hell. Is it really that long?

I fear it's too late to worry about going backwards, I've done that at least once already. Still I will endeavour to not do it again and keep this thing slowly rolling forward.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Happy birthday, Pip!!!!

 

[Hightemplar]

I just had a thought, if elections are done under Florida Rules (vote early, vote often, but not to often only once a day) wouldn't that mean that early votes are counted?

Inspired I decided to get some votes in early

For the UK 1 vote for the Tories in the seat of Plymouth (or 30s equivalent)
For France 1 vote for whatever their version of the Conservative party is
For the US midterms 1 vote for an interventionist democrat in Ohio's 12th congressional district and 1 vote for an interventionist democrat in Ohio's senate race (or in New York if Ohio isn't having a senate race)
For Germany 1 vote for whoever that scary guy who came around to my house last night wants
For an Anshlus (or however you spell it) referendum 1 vote Nein
For Canada 1 vote Conservative
For Australia 1 vote Conservative
For New Zealand 1 vote National
For South Africa 1 vote the less racist party (the pro British one)
It is also a little known fact that I was on the Russian Politburo in the 30s in the leader elections 1 vote for Stalin (while secretly (so secretly this bit is in two brackets) backing a pro Trotsky coup)
For Mexico 1 vote for the guy who will build a wall and make Landon pay for it
For Japan 1 backer for the plots of the strike north group
For any I have missed 1 vote/backer for the conservative/pro British/anti communist party/faction

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Hmm...I guess we know which side of the bread you're buttered.

 

[Hightemplar]

Hmm...I guess we know which side of the bread you're buttered.

Yes I always butter the side facing up, the bottom side is very hard to butter and very messy

 

[Hightemplar]

Hay Pip it's been a while since the last update, can we have a progress report?

Also in an unrelated note I recently went out and bought myself a pitchfork, some torches and a balaclava (no officer I am definitely not going to start an angry mob to try and make El Pip write faster, what gave you that idea?)

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Hay Pip it's been a while since the last update, can we have a progress report?

Yup! Come on, even I have updated, Mr Pip.

 

[Cromwell]

Indeed, the masses grow restless El Pip!

 

[Hightemplar]

Now this may be slightly off topic (but as Pip has yet to put out an update), but can anyone among us tell me why the Stockmarkets just crapped themselves?

 

[Wraith11B]

Overvalue and they're skittish about the increase in the interest rate. Why a Trump-appointee would raise the interest rate and kill his bull market I've no idea.

 

[Hightemplar]

Overvalue and they're skittish about the increase in the interest rate. Why a Trump-appointee would raise the interest rate and kill his bull market I've no idea.

If I remember my year 12 economics right, the fed would raise interest rates to combat inflation (or projected inflation)

 

[El Pip]

Happy birthday, Pip!!!!

There will be many more to come before the end.

I just had a thought, if elections are done under Florida Rules (vote early, vote often, but not to often only once a day) wouldn't that mean that early votes are counted?

Inspired I decided to get some votes in early

For the UK 1 vote for the Tories in the seat of Plymouth (or 30s equivalent)
For France 1 vote for whatever their version of the Conservative party is
For the US midterms 1 vote for an interventionist democrat in Ohio's 12th congressional district and 1 vote for an interventionist democrat in Ohio's senate race (or in New York if Ohio isn't having a senate race)
For Germany 1 vote for whoever that scary guy who came around to my house last night wants
For an Anshlus (or however you spell it) referendum 1 vote Nein
For Canada 1 vote Conservative
For Australia 1 vote Conservative
For New Zealand 1 vote National
For South Africa 1 vote the less racist party (the pro British one)
It is also a little known fact that I was on the Russian Politburo in the 30s in the leader elections 1 vote for Stalin (while secretly (so secretly this bit is in two brackets) backing a pro Trotsky coup)
For Mexico 1 vote for the guy who will build a wall and make Landon pay for it
For Japan 1 backer for the plots of the strike north group
For any I have missed 1 vote/backer for the conservative/pro British/anti communist party/faction

That is a thorough voting slate, I am impressed.

Hmm...I guess we know which side of the bread you're buttered.

The correct side.

Yes I always butter the side facing up, the bottom side is very hard to butter and very messy

Top buttering advice, this is the kind of helpful, practical life advice people need.

Hay Pip it's been a while since the last update, can we have a progress report?

Also in an unrelated note I recently went out and bought myself a pitchfork, some torches and a balaclava (no officer I am definitely not going to start an angry mob to try and make El Pip write faster, what gave you that idea?)

I have done much reading, thinking and plotting as these are things I can do on my journey to work. Admittedly very little of that has made it into written words, but I've got several sentences done.

Yup! Come on, even I have updated, Mr Pip.

Now that is motivation to get writing. But I've also got to catch up on that update, how on earth will I find the time?

Indeed, the masses grow restless El Pip!

The masses should know by now that good things (and Butterfly Effect updates) come to those who wait.

Now this may be slightly off topic (but as Pip has yet to put out an update), but can anyone among us tell me why the Stockmarkets just crapped themselves?

Overvalue and they're skittish about the increase in the interest rate. Why a Trump-appointee would raise the interest rate and kill his bull market I've no idea.

If I remember my year 12 economics right, the fed would raise interest rates to combat inflation (or projected inflation)

Rumours of a major Republican defeat in Spain caused the price of Spanish Credits to crash again, threatening the stability of several large banks and financial firms. From their it spread as it emerged several key pillars of the US economy (Ford, General Motors, Standard Oil and others) still had large financial exposure to Republican Spain that they had not been able to offload and that would be worthless if the Monarchists won.

Gerald Nye is winding up the "Merchants of Death" rhetoric and President Landon's policy of 'Moral Neutrality' is coming under severe pressure, indeed his statement that there would be no bailout of US firms that lost money trading with Spain caused a further slump in the market. To try and regain control of the situation Landon has instructed the relatively new Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate if speculators, excess leverage or insider trading exacerbated the stock market falls, the investigation is seen as the first big test of the powers, and independence, of the new agency.

 

[Hightemplar]

There will be many more to come before the end.


That is a thorough voting slate, I am impressed.

The correct side.

Top buttering advice, this is the kind of helpful, practical life advice people need.


I have done much reading, thinking and plotting as these are things I can do on my journey to work. Admittedly very little of that has made it into written words, but I've got several sentences done.


Now that is motivation to get writing. But I've also got to catch up on that update, how on earth will I find the time?


The masses should know by now that good things (and Butterfly Effect updates) come to those who wait.




Rumours of a major Republican defeat in Spain caused the price of Spanish Credits to crash again, threatening the stability of several large banks and financial firms. From their it spread as it emerged several key pillars of the US economy (Ford, General Motors, Standard Oil and others) still had large financial exposure to Republican Spain that they had not been able to offload and that would be worthless if the Monarchists won.

Gerald Nye is winding up the "Merchants of Death" rhetoric and President Landon's policy of 'Moral Neutrality' is coming under severe pressure, indeed his statement that there would be no bailout of US firms that lost money trading with Spain caused a further slump in the market. To try and regain control of the situation Landon has instructed the relatively new Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate if speculators, excess leverage or insider trading exacerbated the stock market falls, the investigation is seen as the first big test of the powers, and independence, of the new agency.

But the DOW is down over 1000 points, if Landon doesn't do something soon there will be no stock market left

On a serious note you should totally work this in to the story. Something along the lines of stock market crashes, the US has a depression part 2 and Landon gets crushed at the midterms (oh and can you work in a scene where Landon gives a speech accusing his opponents of treason for not clapping for his state of the union and having the Dow drop 400 points during the speech, no of course it's not modelled after real life what gave you that idea?)

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

If there's another crash I think it's entirely possible NY trading and US trading as a whole will go into hibernation for quite a while (I don't think it will die unless the highly unlikely occurrence of the Union splitting up occurs and New York and California States are burnt to the ground). Everyone will become very skittish of investment in anything other than 'brick and mortar' stuff like...er...construction projects. But if not only the financial markets take a tumble but things like basic insurances and liabilities grow much harder to do as well (even if it's just in the US), it would be disastrous for international trade and the world economy in general.

Basically I'm worried that if the US economy goes down the toilet again it won't pop up for another decade or so, by which point the markets will have shifted back into Europe again (well, 'Europe'...London mostly), and n that meantime not only do we know that most of Europe will be set on fire and blown up but also that Europe of this period can't float the entire global economy on its back even if WWII wasn't going to happen. This is problematic for everyone that doesn't have a solid consumer market (or several) that they know they can sell stuff to (GB has India and to a lesser extent the rest of the Empire, for example) and downright awful to anyone who was planning on boosting their economies by ridiculous amounts over the next five years (i.e. ...well, everyone who didn't want their country to fall to communist revolutionaries). This, like all economic theory is more fantastical and 'what-if' than almost anything else we could discuss on the forum but...the idea that the US president would not only curtail manufacturing but also not bail out a crisis in the financial market just before midterm elections (which implies it's not a popular idea with the other side either, or with the public) is quite frightening in thinking about this world's future. And that all of this is dependant (basically) on whether or not it looks like the Soviet-backed republicans in Spain are winning or not (they aren't and from all evidence thus far, they won't).

Dark days indeed.

 

[Hightemplar]

I think the event path should go like this
-investors get jittery over Spain
-this causes a mass sell off
-this results in the stock market crashing and a run on the banks
-Landon does nothing because the free market will fix it
-the republicans get wiped out at the midterms
-democrats attempt to impeach Landon (for the Crime of letting the economy die)
-the states rights party supports the impeachment because their man is the Vice President
-Landon is impeached, the two main parties are now the democrats and the states rights, most remaining republican office holders join one or the other

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I think the event path should go like this
-investors get jittery over Spain
-this causes a mass sell off
-this results in the stock market crashing and a run on the banks
-Landon does nothing because the free market will fix it
-the republicans get wiped out at the midterms
-democrats attempt to impeach Landon (for the Crime of letting the economy die)
-the states rights party supports the impeachment because their man is the Vice President
-Landon is impeached, the two main parties are now the democrats and the states rights, most remaining republican office holders join one or the other

No. Impeachment of a president is rather difficult because it requires (in essence) both Houses and the Chief of the Supreme Court to agree that the president has committed treason, lied to the govement or accepted bribery (there's some vagueness over what charge can require impeachment but...) and this has never happened, not even with Andrew Jackson who mamneged to piss off a good majority of everyone in the federal government at the time.
Landon doing nothing about the economy (because he and everyone else believes that he can't and shouldn't) is not a cause for impeachment and if attempted would actually probably destroy what little faith the country had in a federal system that had managed to oversee this calamity twice in as many decades. It would be so transparently a grab for power that the Supreme Court would never go along with it. The Republicans (though I agree they will probbaly be slaughtered at the midterms) will start srcreaming bloody murder and look like the good guys for doing so. And the president himself can fight this all the way and justifiably argue that not only are the accusers wasting the country's time in a moment of crisis (which they are), they are also falsely accusing him of far greater crimes than he has committed.

I'm more worried about the stock market crash and the state of the union. Once again bustling states and emerging economies have been crush by a market centred (in many cases) on the other side of a continent, overseen by a federal institution that seems incablpe of safeguarding the whole Union in favour of the east coast. If the democrats then decided to do this ridiculous power grab as well, public confidence would plummet. It's not civil war level bad or anything but individual state are going to be pissed at these guys for a long time. In fact, I imagine that the shockwaves would be bad enough to make the US withdraw from the world for a while, including much of the Amercias. Certainly forgiven investors will stop investing and using the NY exchange in favour of the much more stable looking London and Amsterdam examples...and it might not stop there either.

Basically I can see the top half of your events happening very easily but if they do, it's going to be a massive mess for the entirety of America, not a moment for the democrats to burst from the clouds and take over.

 

[Hightemplar]

No. Impeachment of a president is rather difficult because it requires (in essence) both Houses and the Chief of the Supreme Court to agree that the president has committed treason, lied to the govement or accepted bribery (there's some vagueness over what charge can require impeachment but...) and this has never happened, not even with Andrew Jackson who mamneged to piss off a good majority of everyone in the federal government at the time.
Landon doing nothing about the economy (because he and everyone else believes that he can't and shouldn't) is not a cause for impeachment and if attempted would actually probably destroy what little faith the country had in a federal system that had managed to oversee this calamity twice in as many decades. It would be so transparently a grab for power that the Supreme Court would never go along with it. The Republicans (though I agree they will probbaly be slaughtered at the midterms) will start srcreaming bloody murder and look like the good guys for doing so. And the president himself can fight this all the way and justifiably argue that not only are the accusers wasting the country's time in a moment of crisis (which they are), they are also falsely accusing him of far greater crimes than he has committed.

I'm more worried about the stock market crash and the state of the union. Once again bustling states and emerging economies have been crush by a market centred (in many cases) on the other side of a continent, overseen by a federal institution that seems incablpe of safeguarding the whole Union in favour of the east coast. If the democrats then decided to do this ridiculous power grab as well, public confidence would plummet. It's not civil war level bad or anything but individual state are going to be pissed at these guys for a long time. In fact, I imagine that the shockwaves would be bad enough to make the US withdraw from the world for a while, including much of the Amercias. Certainly forgiven investors will stop investing and using the NY exchange in favour of the much more stable looking London and Amsterdam examples...and it might not stop there either.

Basically I can see the top half of your events happening very easily but if they do, it's going to be a massive mess for the entirety of America, not a moment for the democrats to burst from the clouds and take over.

You present some convincing arguments here is my rebuttal

On impeachment - according to the constitution impeachment is for high crimes and misdemeanours, a president can be impeached by a majority of the house, this has happened twice to Jackson and Clinton. Once impeached by the house the president is then tried in the senate who can remove him from office with a two thirds majority, this has never happened (Jackson came within one vote of it happening). The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presides over the trial (think of him as the judge and the senate as the jury), but in the end it is congress who gets to decide. The senate step is clearly harder than the house step.

If the economy properly crashes again I anticipate Landon's approval rating crashing to Chris Cristie levels (7% approve, 7% respond with a swear word, 80%+ disapprove). This will cause republicans to be wiped out at the midterms. I anticipate them losing every senate seat that cycle, as well as all but a dozen house seats half of which will have run as independents. I also think that a number of republican senators will abandon the republican party for other parties

Onward to the impeachment, the 'high crimes and misdemeanours' threshold for impeachment is deliberately vague and open to interpretation. Basically congress gets to decide what high crimes and misdemeanours means, technically speaking congress could impeach the president for jaywalking. However only unpopular presidents are likely to be impeached (that's why Nixson resigned and Clinton survived). As Landon is at this point less popular than Lincoln in the south (in 1861) the public backlash over impeachment will be lessened. In a change from my original post I believe the states rights party (SRP) would take the lead on impeachment as they have the most to gain (their man becomes the president). The democrats would probably be bought off with a few cabinet picks and the VP slot (which would be a great platform from which to launch a presidential campaign from). I would personally back the democrats original VP pick Mr Iron Man (forget his actual name). With both the democrats and the SRP supporting it the house would easily impeach Landon (the specific articles I will leave up to El Pip). In the senate the vote would be closer because of the two thirds threshold but I expect around 70 senators to vote guilty. And there we have it Landon impeached, Mr VP Man as the president, Iron Man as VP and some action on the fiscal crisis (or not).

On your point of doing nothing being the accepted government response to a crisis, try telling a crowd of angry votes who's factory has just fired them that the government doing nothing to help them is the best plan and one they should vote for (I expect several broken bones and a couple of deaths)

But in the end this dispute can only be resolved by the master of slow time (and updates ) El Pip

If I missed any of your arguments please let me know. If you still disagree then you can get stuffed (just kidding debate is always fun)

Finally
Join me Butterfly Composer and together with our combined text walls we can defeat the Lord of Slower Than Real Time El Pip and rule this AAR

(Hope you get the reference)

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

But of course.

My issue with the impeachment is that I can see something like this happening after the midterms and with a strong democrat presence in both houses but at that point they don't need to get rid of the president. They already run the federal government at that point, plus can pin even more blame than usual on the suffering president. All they have to do is wait until either the next election (not that long to wait if they're smart and patient) or for the Republicans to force the President to resign (potentially unlikely but possible) in order to get the healing process of the party (which by the 30's is already quite ruined OTL and even worse TTL) up and running as soon as possible. Then whilst they're licking their wounds, potentially for the next two election cycles, the Democrats have free reign in both Houses and in the Executive branch. No need to empower the States Rights Party. Impeaching a president for what is essentially incompetence after a runaway successful midterm for the other Party sets a precedent that neither party really wants set.

Of course, this is what you'd do theoretically and clinically if you were the democrats trying to take advantage here (and you're banking on a decisive set of midterm elections). If however the democrats have within their ranks anyone with a soul or sense of responsibility towards...well, saving the Union, they might want to take drastic and immediate action. But I'm not sure there's enough to get a two thirds majority in the Senate, not unless a ridiculously charismatic and experienced political ladder from the past emerges to whip the Party and the nation into a frenzy to get them to do something.

As above, impeachment might even be a good idea in terms of democracy, leader accountability and competence but this is the US government we're talking about here, everyone is scared out of their minds that the economy is going to tank again and very few are going to be ballsy enough to risk their Party's position by suggesting impeachment. Except...perhaps...the New York electors themselves. That could work. But it would be very conspiratorial, even for an AAR.

 

[Nathan Madien]

They will play the all time brutal monarch/dictator first XI for the Ashes (of Karl Marx)
The Monarchist/Dictator team is made up of

•Gengis Khan - an opener and a handy right hand bat (average 42.4, SR 48)
•Atilla the Hun - the second of the nomad openers, can quickly accumulate runs but struggles with consistency (average 34.6, SR 64)
•General Franco - a classy batsman especially when backed up by Hitler and Mussolini (average 43.4 SR 44)
•Adolf Hitler - the team captain and best batsman, a bit of a grammar nazi at press conferences (average 65.4, SR 56)
•Steve Smith - annoying good, has been described as the second coming of Christ (until the ODIs start anyway) (average 63.76 SR 55.8)
•Benito Mussolini - player Hitler based his style on, often playes stupid shots (average 32.2 SR 54)
•Jozef Tiso - wicket keeper batsman, rumoured to believe that the ball is Czech (spit) and take great pleasure in hitting it (average 28.2 SR 62)
•Ivan the Terrible - spin bowler, bamboozles opponents with his (Russian) orthodox spin (best figures 7-44)
•Emperor Hirohito - seam bowler, rips through opposition batting lineups with his Devine Wind bowling technique, roumour has it he is only a puppet for a group of ambitious IPL owners (best figures 6-55)
•Vladimir Putin - seam bowler, another Russian bowler, likes to annex his opponents wickets (best figures 9-22)
•Shaka Zulu - seam bowler, an attempt to add some genuine South African pace, struggles in English conditions (best figures 5-62)

•Donald Trump - the twelfth man, considered an honorary member of the all time brutal monarchist/dictator first XI

I find it amusing that you can get onto this list of brutal leaders just by being an obxious egotist.

Nice spit reference with Tiso by the way.