Or even with only the first 3 events, it should be enough to make ITA have 10 dissent the in a situation similar to the historical surrender moment, so the event can trigger.
In july 1943, after the fall of Sicily, the fascist party voted 19 vs 9 to make Mussolini leave the head of government. Badoglio was called by the king Vittorio Emanuele III to the head of government and, while claiming in pubblic that Italy would have continued the war against the allies, secretely negotiated an armistice. In the following weeks before the armistice (8 september was made public but it was signed on 3 september) there were no revolts by ex-true fascists, supporter of Mussolini, and ex-false fascists.
Everybody was waiting for the inevitable.. hoping for peace to come soon and fearing that Hitler would have invaded Italy.. (he was garrisoning north and south italy "in order to defend it from the allies") but nobody told the italian army fighting abroad how to behave.
Then the armistice caught the italian army unprepared so that many were disarmed peacefully by the germans but many others were not (cefalonia, corfu) and died fighting or worst were sent to prisoners camp in germany, while other wehrmacht divisions invaded Italy in order to secure it. In the meanwhile the king was fleeing to southern italy.. controlled by the Allies and on 12 september Mussolini was freed by Skorzeny and on 18 september R.S.I. was born.
How to represent this?
- The idea of an event triggered by the loss of the extra-italian provinces along with an increase of dissent is good, maybe
loss of Ethiopia/Lybia/and one from Sicily/Sardinia/Napoli/Taranto/Bari plus 10% dissent or higher
---> Mussolini deposed and imprisoned, Badoglio head of government (dissent decreased, trigger of the Italian surrender event, soon after (Sicily AND Taranto AND Bari occupied by the allies) with all his comsequencens, RSI and etc.
or
----> "We shall fight till the end", dissent increased, Mussolini remains as the head of government, no surrender event, no RSI
Darkey