Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[nuclearslurpee]

If it makes you feel better, post conference is entirely out of game hands and into what if probability. Which means the US is about to kick ass, in whatever it is they choose to do. Which doesn't seem to be continued interaction with the world, but rather become the undisputed industrial, economic and financial centre of global trade.

One wonders, though. Compared to OTL, the Allies are considerably weaker what with Italy, half of Germany, and Japan not being under their thumbs to various degrees, the colonial empires being generally reduced even before we start talking about decolonization, and critically Turkey is a member of the Comintern and will not be joining this timeline's NATO equivalent. There's still some votes to be written yet as well, we do know much of central and eastern Europe plus Spain and Finland will be in the Comintern bloc regardless, but the fates of France and India remain open.

Point being: sure, the US will likely be the industrial center of the West, but "the West" is going to a lot smaller consisting largely of the Commonwealth, some or all of France, and India if things work to the British advantage. This is certainly enough coupled with the general American powerhouse status to assure great or even superpower status, but I think "undisputed" will be a bit much.

The long-term question will be how well the USSR and Turkey get along over the next few decades. Turkey has the choice to cuddle up with Uncle Joe and be an independent, but junior, member of a two-nation hegemony, or they can play the enterprising middleman and play the USSR and The West against each other to come out ahead. I suspect that our estimable AuthAAR is prepared to let the next several rounds of voting tell a lot of that part of the story...

 

[Wraith11B]

One wonders, though. Compared to OTL, the Allies are considerably weaker what with Italy, half of Germany, and Japan not being under their thumbs to various degrees, the colonial empires being generally reduced even before we start talking about decolonization, and critically Turkey is a member of the Comintern and will not be joining this timeline's NATO equivalent. There's still some votes to be written yet as well, we do know much of central and eastern Europe plus Spain and Finland will be in the Comintern bloc regardless, but the fates of France and India remain open.

Point being: sure, the US will likely be the industrial center of the West, but "the West" is going to a lot smaller consisting largely of the Commonwealth, some or all of France, and India if things work to the British advantage. This is certainly enough coupled with the general American powerhouse status to assure great or even superpower status, but I think "undisputed" will be a bit much.

The issue being that the Marshall Plan is--if it even happens, and is somehow not something that can be negotiated with--basically leaving all of the war-torn areas exactly as they are. Speaking from experience, Poland still had buildings that were full of bullet holes from WW2. And I got there in 1993. Without the US' support, the COMINTERN is in for a very long and very rough attempt at rebuilding most of Europe...

...but really they're not going to. The Soviet Union would do exactly what it did OTL: disassemble every single factory and ship it off to Russia.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

The issue being that the Marshall Plan is--if it even happens, and is somehow not something that can be negotiated with--basically leaving all of the war-torn areas exactly as they are. Speaking from experience, Poland still had buildings that were full of bullet holes from WW2. And I got there in 1993. Without the US' support, the COMINTERN is in for a very long and very rough attempt at rebuilding most of Europe...

...but really they're not going to. The Soviet Union would do exactly what it did OTL: disassemble every single factory and ship it off to Russia.

It depends. No doubt, Stalin will do this as much as he can, but he can't do it as much as in OTL because of Turkey - not only does Turkey control a lot of the places which the OTL Soviets deindustrialized, but if they remain a close Comintern member there will be considerably more pressure on Stalin to actually put at least some token effort into rebuilding, particularly since the Russian heartland was relatively untouched by the Germans (most of their advances only got so far as the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, etc. - still a lot of damage but much less than OTL). The flip side is that Turkey is likely to invest a lot into rebuilding as well, based on how they have been portrayed in this ATL. Turkey also stands to benefit a lot from oil in its Middle East and North Africa territories, should she hold onto them by vote or veto, potentially a lot of rebuilding money could come from oil sales once the necessary infrastructure is built up.

Besides that, there's still a lot of votes which could go in a direction Stalin doesn't like. There is the potential for USSR vs. Turkey competition for some of the potential puppet states, and both nations have to worry about their respective puppets being assigned by the peace conference as "independent" Comintern nations, likely signalling a reduction of direct influence and ability for action and an increase in Western involvement across "ideological" lines.

Basically compared to OTL, the USSR and USA will still be the clear top-two great powers, maybe even superpowers, but they won't have nearly as much latitude as they did in the OTL Cold War (which is itself open to question - does a bilateral Cold War occur with Turkey and Japan in the mix as legitimate imperial powers in their own rights?).

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The issue being that the Marshall Plan is--if it even happens, and is somehow not something that can be negotiated with--basically leaving all of the war-torn areas exactly as they are. Speaking from experience, Poland still had buildings that were full of bullet holes from WW2. And I got there in 1993. Without the US' support, the COMINTERN is in for a very long and very rough attempt at rebuilding most of Europe...

Less damage overall and a shorter war, so hopefully not as big a rebuilding job.

Fortunately, got a lot more of a unified New Comintern to rebuild Europe with.

...but really they're not going to. The Soviet Union would do exactly what it did OTL: disassemble every single factory and ship it off to Russia.

Nah. Even with Stalin sticking around into the 50s (as per OTL), there's no threat to him in europe anymore. Means the USSR can focus on building a proper alliance of socialism up, rather than paraniodly keeping the West at bay. As explained below...

It depends. No doubt, Stalin will do this as much as he can, but he can't do it as much as in OTL because of Turkey - not only does Turkey control a lot of the places which the OTL Soviets deindustrialized, but if they remain a close Comintern member there will be considerably more pressure on Stalin to actually put at least some token effort into rebuilding, particularly since the Russian heartland was relatively untouched by the Germans (most of their advances only got so far as the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine, etc. - still a lot of damage but much less than OTL).

Correct. I refer to it as the New Comintern because that is what it will be, a new international to promote socialism and support existing socialist states. What with a few powerful members in the NC from the getgo, we can focus on rebuilding the rest up and standing together into the future.

The flip side is that Turkey is likely to invest a lot into rebuilding as well, based on how they have been portrayed in this ATL. Turkey also stands to benefit a lot from oil in its Middle East and North Africa territories, should she hold onto them by vote or veto, potentially a lot of rebuilding money could come from oil sales once the necessary infrastructure is built up.

This is true, though the OTL issues with stability come with that wealth.

Besides that, there's still a lot of votes which could go in a direction Stalin doesn't like. There is the potential for USSR vs. Turkey competition for some of the potential puppet states, and both nations have to worry about their respective puppets being assigned by the peace conference as "independent" Comintern nations, likely signalling a reduction of direct influence and ability for action and an increase in Western involvement across "ideological" lines.

Depends on how the USSR and Comintern evolve when Stalin and the founding fathers of the UGNR are dead or retired, I think. Until the 50s at absolute earliest, they will be firm allies and stick to their current philosophies. Turkey will probably lean left, everyone else will be influenced by their presence.

Basically compared to OTL, the USSR and USA will still be the clear top-two great powers, maybe even superpowers, but they won't have nearly as much latitude as they did in the OTL Cold War (which is itself open to question - does a bilateral Cold War occur with Turkey and Japan in the mix as legitimate imperial powers in their own rights?).

Indeed. And that seems altogether better for global stability.

 

[Bullfilter]

All the points being made and the outcomes of the votes so far are excellent material for the epilogue and how I might paint the future years perhaps affecting the gamiverse. As will the main conference rounds to come. It is exactly what I was hoping for (the interactions and the way each participant has begun to identify with and articulate the unique interests of the country/alliance they are temporarily representing as a negotiator with limited agency). Which can be frustrating but also very interesting and I think quite realistic.

I’ve actually been (before I retired) in the position each of you are playing (though of course at a much less exalted level) in international multilateral conferences, meetings, working groups etc, both defence and foreign affairs based as both a delegation lead trying to get outcomes and as an adviser in the room at up to ministerial level conferences and meetings (bilateral and multipolar) for over a decade. With countries as diverse in their interests as Russia, China, DPRK, Myanmar etc, through to the US, NZ, EU (as a bloc, sometimes some of the individual countries), Australia, Japan, ROK, Indonesia and all the other South East Asian countries. Plus India and Pakistan, in India!

This is actually what it is like. Big and small powers. Your own representation of your own country’s interests are hemmed in by so many things: your own Government’s directions and the degree of latitude you have to negotiate within them (the bigger the issue, the less discretion you have).

Depending on the system of government and where it may be in an election or succession cycle and its strength, that government itself has many things which limit its free agency, based on keeping itself in power and noting national sentiment. Plus the raw geo-political and military power in can wield.

Then there are the agreed rules, limits or preconditions that the countries participating in the meeting signed up to in order for it to even happen. And what ‘like-minded’ partners want to get from various issues, which are often synonymous with your own, but not always: that also puts limits on your own ‘art of the possible’.

We used to say most of what happens in a plenary session and in the public voting on things was theatre, it was all done in side meetings and briefings before or during the meeting, either bilaterally or in sub-groups of like-minded countries. But sometimes also surprise deals behind the scenes, realpolitik between players who you wouldn’t normally think would work together.

And all that was on issues usually far less spectacular than negotiating war and peace and the division of territory and political spheres of interest following a massive world war! If the parameters and yes restrictions of the Conference system are giving some flavour of that, in all its frustration, uncertainty and dirty dealing but also the excitement of a good deal done, then my aim will have been attained on that score.

And also, rather than me dictating a post-war order or just taking what the game map gave as it ended, I’ve given you as a group the chance to shape both the immediate post-war world but also the vibe that I can apply to an epilogue. And also your own theories (which may of course vary greatly from mine and others) as to how things may turn out from here onwards.

The game may be over, but the AAR still has a little way to go yet. I thank all of you so much for being part of that, and hope you are getting something out of the epilogue you wouldn’t from the average AAR you may have followed

 

[Midnite Duke]

Am I missing something? Turkey is still a conservative autocracy not close to socialism or communism. Turkey banded with SU through the war for military reasons not ideology. The Turkish/SU split will be as quick as OTL US/SU split. Imperialism is dead. OTL, the only nation that gained sizeable clay was the SU which almost (Finland) reclaimed its pre Great War borders. The independence movement will be in full swing in Asia/Africa for the next two decades. (Gandhi and Ho were on scene before the war.) The two ways that US and SU maintained its allies were fear (Hungary, Berlin, Prague) and bribery (Marshall Plan). Oil prices did not explode until the 1970s oil embargo.

The two major differences in this time line and OTL are US not major military force (does the AI usually play the US badly) and an Islamic nation (Turkey) being a leader on the world stage. This brings the question of what will US do? Will it follow a world leadership path as in OTL or will it be isolationist and withdrawn from rebuilding Europe/Australia-New Zealand? The next question is the location of an independent Jewish state. (Emigration had begun pre WW2) We have avoided these questions while playing monopoly/risk. The Jewish state has been one of the dominant issues of the last eighty years. (I cannot see Turkey allowing it in Palestine in this timeline.) These two issues will bring out some fascinating what-if scenarios. Thank you for your time and hopefully I did not offend anyone.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

(does the AI usually play the US badly)

Usually not, usually it is even worse.

(I cannot see Turkey allowing it in Palestine in this timeline.)

I think you have answered your own question quite adroitly.

 

[Bullfilter]

A friendly reminder to all Conference Participants that the next voting deadline, for Round Three, Propositions 6 (Denmark) and 7 (Finland) is approaching: 1000hr GMT on Tuesday 28 June 2022 (real time), unless all final votes are cast before that time.

SG LN

 

[Bullfilter]

Last call for any remaining votes, I’ll not be collating tonight, so any that come through in the next ten hours or so will make it under the boom gate.

Per standard Conference practice, so as not to hold the process up, if there are any not submitted by then I’ll do a default vote for that country per the highest scoring option for them on the applicable scoresheet, or toss a coin if it’s even. Just be careful in case that might inadvertently breach a bound pledge.

SG LN

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Vote early, vote often sorry, wrong AAR again...

 

[Midnite Duke]

Vote early, vote often sorry, wrong AAR again...

Voting early is good. Voting often in my support is Great. Voting twice against me is a mortal sin.

 

[Bullfilter]

League of Nations
Geneva Peace Conference - 24 October 1944

Round Three Results

The votes have been submitted and tallied. The Secretariat can declare that the voting was as follows:

Proposition 6 - Denmark

6.1 (Denmark remains Soviet Puppet): 43 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Spain 2, Poland 1).
6.2 (Denmark becomes independent Comintern): 38 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA [default vote] 14, Germany 4, France 3, Romania [default vote] 2).

Proposition 7 - Finland

7.1 (Finland becomes a Soviet Puppet): 43 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Spain 2, Poland 1).
7.2 (Finland remains a Turkish Puppet): 0 votes.
7.3 (Finland becomes independent Comintern): 38 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA [default vote] 14, Germany 4, France 3, Romania [default vote] 2).

Potential Vetoes and Legal Actions

No veto applies to Proposition 6. For Proposition 7, Turkey technically retains a veto, even though they voted in favour of option 7.1. While it is assumed this veto will not be exercised, I will allow until 1000hr GMT on 29 June 2022 (real time) for Turkey to advise formally, one way or another. If no such notice is received, the veto will be considered lapsed.

The same deadline applies (as a standard procedure - without confirmation of whether any such pledges applied to this round of voting or, if made, were broken) to any countries wishing to launch legal action with the Secretary General over any accusations of breached bound pledges.

Next Round of Voting

Voting will now proceed to Round Four to settle the fate of Czech Republic (P8), Slovakia (P9), Austria (P10) and Hungary (P11).

The Round Four deadline is 1000hr on 5 July 2022 (real time), unless all final votes are cast before that time.

best regards and remaining your humble servant,

Seán Lester
Secretary General
League of Nations
Geneva
24 October 1944

Spoiler: OOC Comment

A very close vote. As it happens, this is one where the smaller powers ended up holding the balance of power, with the combined votes of Spain and Poland being enough to tip things just in favour of the USSR on this occasion.

 

[Midnite Duke]

To all independent-thinking progressives, who have grown tired of Thanksgiving leftovers and vodka distilled in a bathtub, the French Embassy is hosting a dinner with coq au vin, crepes, fruit tarts and escargots with Champagne and fine Burgundian wine. All Czechs, Slovaks, Austrians and Hungarians are encouraged to attend. Danes and Finns are welcome. The booths, with leftover American and British lend-lease merchandise, are completely unaffiliated with the French government.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Bit concerning to see the USA casting default votes, given that it's a rather large and significant power - though my guess is, it's not making too much difference at the moment.

Otherwise I have a hunch we'll be seeing a lot of 43-38 votes in the next several rounds, judging by the splits here.

 

[Wraith11B]

They were default only because I've been juggling work the last few days and no one seemed interested in actually discussing anything with the USA anymore.

So, we'll vote and let the economies collapse under the weight of their pressure.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Hope things clear up for you sooner than later!

In case anyone else might want to know, and hasn't thought of the idea - I've recently been submitting my tentative votes for each round almost as soon as our esteemed authAAR announces the next round of voting. These votes are subject to change in case of a change in status, of course, but this way I've got something on the record which suits my aims better than the default in case something comes up and I'm away at a bad moment. I don't think it was immediately obvious that we could do this, so I'm throwing it out there in case anyone else (not singling out Wraith here by any means) might find it a useful idea.

 

[Bullfilter]

I can confirm the honourable representative from Turkey has confirmed they will not be casting their veto.

yours in peace,

SG LN

 

[Bullfilter]

League of Nations
Geneva Peace Conference - 1 November 1944​

Round Four Results

The votes have been submitted and tallied. The Secretariat can declare that the voting was as follows:

Proposition 8 – Czech Republic

8.1 (Czech Republic remains a Turkish Puppet): 49 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Germany 4, Spain 2, Romania [default vote] 2, Poland 1).
8.2 (Czech Republic becomes independent Comintern): 32 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA 14, France 3).

Proposition 9 - Slovakia

9.1 (Slovakia remains a Turkish Puppet): 49 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Germany 4, Spain 2, Romania [default vote] 2, Poland 1).
9.2 (Slovakia becomes independent Comintern): 32 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA 14, France 3).

Proposition 10 – Austria

10.1 (Austria remains part of the UGNR): 0 votes.
10.2 (Austria freed as a Turkish Puppet): 47 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Germany 4, Spain 2, Poland 1).
10.3 (Austria becomes independent Comintern): 34 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA 14, France 3, Romania [default vote] 2).

Proposition 11 – Hungary

11.1 (Hungary remains part of the UGNR): 0 votes.
11.2 (Hungary freed as a Turkish Puppet): 47 votes PASSED (USSR 17, Japan 13, Turkey 10, Germany 4, Spain 2, Poland 1).
11.3 (Hungary becomes independent Comintern): 34 votes (UK/Allies 15, USA 14, France 3, Romania [default vote] 2).

No vetoes apply.

As a standard reminder, if any country believes a bound pledge has been broken, they have until 1000hr GMT on Wed 6 July 2022 (real time), to privately notify the Secretary General if they wish to bring a breach action. Irrespective of that, the next round will proceed at the time appointed below.

The deadline for Round Five (Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece) is 1000hr GMT on 12 July 2022 (real time), unless all final votes are cast before that time.

Yours in Peace,

Seán Lester
Secretary General
League of Nations
Geneva
1 November 1944

 

[diskoerekto]

We welcome the old new nations of Hungary and Austria into our brotherly arms. I hope they'll follow our lead into becoming democratic confederal republics that we'll turn into after the conference (details will follow afterwards). If Czechia and Slovakia want to merge back, they have our blessings. If any border region wants to switch to their neighbors between this 4 Central European republics, Romania or us; of course pending any regional plebiscite, they also have our blessings. Our peacetime focus will be to be as human centric as possible.

Sincerely,

Ismet Inonu
President of UGNR
Geneva
1 November 1944

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

It is the view of the Soviet Union that the Peace of Europe must be the main aim of all Conference members, and that today we have found a great step forward in ensuring that goal. We welcome the inclusion of four new members of the New Comintern, and look forward to rebuilding them into proud and prosperous nations once more.

We echo the Turkish delegation in supporting democratic (parotucalrly, of course, Soviet worker Council led) reform within these states. In our view, Austria and Hungary have long been denied self determination, and shall never again lose it, and have their rightful territory restored (no less and no more). In a similar vein, we look to the Czech and Slovakian republics themsevles to decide their future either together, apart or something else entirely.

It is not the policy of the USSR, nor the New Comintern, to punish the people of the former axis powers, not the innocent victims of war in the other countries that have just joined our brotherhood of nations. They will find in Russia and Turkey great strength and protection, and perhaps, in our smaller members, reassurance and solidarity. In this way, all workers and peoples of Europe shall come together, no longer for war and chaos, but peace and rebuilding.

The New Comintern shall of course meet in full after the close of this Conference, for our own purposes and findings of commonality. I would however like to reassure our new members, potential future members and the rest of the world that there shall be no terror or tyranny within the New Comintern, and that all member states, whether they be (at present time) free members or vassal states in need of aid, shall posses their own government formed from their own people.

This is a personal promise from Comrade Stalin himself, and one we hope shall quickly be joined by our good friends in Ankara.

Let us all continue to establish a better world than the one we have found.