Werewolf CCLXIII: Dungeons and Dragons

[Flockingbird]

@marty99 - you have some incorrect names in your posts; if you’re around, would you edit them so I can follow your train of thought? Thanks.

Ike makes a vote on Ike - then instantly unmoves it

Also if aedan is a wolf, it would make sense to need to hunt aedan as his spy trait might reveal something.

I believe aedan and Wagon are the bold, ballsy wolves Wagon described, and put forward a false claim to clear each other, just like criminals give each other false alibis. From his behavior and voting record, I believe Ike is the 3rd wolf. If the village goes for your plan, Marty, I’d vote Ike because I’m less sure of Dedonus.

 

[Wagonlitz]

Between that pair, I'm leaning towards ike: With ike's bloodlust yesterday, and his tie on day 1, I'm starting to feel he's a wolf. Far too eager to jump unto an opportunity to kill more people.

Ike, Cyms, and MAW were run up day 2, just before the outing, with Ike being pushed one ahead kf Maw and Cyms. If both Ike and Maw are wolves, then the wolves did really poorly in letting two of three front runners be wolves.

but it would make even more sense if yakman was also a wolf

Alxeus spy report on Yakman really really reads villager. And doesn't even remotely read wolf.
Based on that yakman most likely is a villager.

Wait Aedan was a SPY??? Oh my god. And we don't even know what she got. So now we are forced to just trust alxeu's reading of a spy report? Why would it be so clear that Cymsdale was good? Otherwise it would just be a super-scan? Oh. my god.

We do have rhe spy reports, btw.

Wagons idea to try a tie is kind of insane. if successful and both villagers, it brings the wolves to 1 day from parity.

We're at parity anyway. The wolves can snipe in a tie or in other ways get an extra kill and win.

As such we shouldn't try and get a tie tonight, but rather have all villagers on the same person. Otherwise we're in trouble.

NB I am so, so, so glad Cymsdale was hunted and we don't have to decide the entire game on trusting ghost alxeu's interpretation of a spy report. That lack of agency would absolutely kill me.

Do keep in mind we do have those spy reports.

 

[Flockingbird]

Aedan doesn’t have many posts in this thread, so I’ve quoted them all (edit: but his first 2) posts. I also added several vote counts our GM and bear provided for the end of D2. I’ll be using this post I’m making to help me in reaching a decision. I’m not making an argument here; I’m working on testing my argument. Lemme know if you need me to spoiler any of it (I may edit spoilers in if the post seems too long, regardless.)

Not good result from day 1. I agree with beartjah that MAW seems pretty suspicious for driving Ironhide up so far earlier in the day and helping to ensure that the non-voting players would be the main focal points of voting.

Ike on the surface looks bad for making the tie, but Ike does semi-suspicious things which get him lynched fairly regularly as a villager. Not saying to let him off the hook for it, he could still be a baddie, but he's not going to be my pick for a vote today, at least based on the information known now.

I'm willing to give Cymsdale the benefit of the doubt on marking alxeu rather than Ironhide a known villager. Because whether he's a wolf or a villager the crux of it would be that Cymsdale mixed up alxeu and Ironhide. Which can be the case regardless of Cymsdale's role. His suggestion of lynching the most active players first now is dumb, but I read it as more tongue in cheek than serious suggestion. Vote wise from yesterday he looks worse though, having been involved in pushing Ironhide up pretty high. Yakman's accusation that Cymsdale supported a tie seems unsupported by the evidence though. So not a terrible candidate in my book, but some of the reasons people are suspicion of him are poor.

Mildly suspicious of Wombat for brining up Historydude first as a possible candidate yesterday, but backed off shortly after Dedonus (correctly) pointed out how often Historydude had been used as a scapegoat. Feels like a way for Wombat to muddy the waters and let other players run onto a bad candidate without putting a vote of his own in there.

But the biggest thing to me is definitely Wagonlitz trying to take charge and orchestrate a switch to run-up historydude. For not having voted yet Wagon tries to command a whole vote switch to history dude even as other players are pointing out how likely it was to be a bad idea. Rubs me the wrong way, as does Dedonus (who pointed out how likely it was that lynching historydude would be a bad idea) then jumping on.

I just find all the elements of a switch to an easy scapegoat at almost the last minute to indicate something fishy. The priority close to deadline day 1 should be avoiding a tie, especially if every candidate of consequence is targeted purely for not voting. A confused attempt at a switch while facing pushback is one of the surest ways to end up with a tie day 1, and Wagonlitz has been around long enough to know that.

Vote Wagonlitz

It's definitely bad to keep running up people who weren't lynched day 1 over accusations of them being saved. That doesn't mean the correct solution is to ensure the death of anyone who gets serious pressure day 1 to prevent them from being run up day 2. That's just ensuring the death of a probable villager faster.

Edit 2: I never could quite understand your 2nd sentence here, aedan. ‘It is not the correct solution to ensure the death of day 1 prime suspects to prevent them from being run up the next day?’ I removed one of the triple? negatives and I’m still not clear—could you reword it? Thanks.
Edit 3: see next post for more context.

Day 2 Votecount: ~1.5 hours to deadline

Cymsdale: 4
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]
Arkasas [198]
randakar [211]

MAWofdoom: 3
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat [183]
Wagonlitz [186]

Emperor Ike: 3
Flockingbird [177]
Yakman [178]
Caillean [215]

Yakman: 1
Dedonus [181]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Team Wombat: 1
Cymsdale [190]

Not Voted: 2

Edit 4: argh, these next 2 are out of order; bears count should be next, then happycats’.

Final Day 2 Votecount

MAWofdoom: 11
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat [183]
Wagonlitz [186]
alxeu [222 Ike -> 228]
Cymsdale [190 Team Wombat -> 229]
Flockingbird [177 Ike -> 231]
Caillean [215 Ike -> 232]
randakar [211 Cymsdale -> 224 Yak -> 225 Dedonus -> 234]
Dedonus [181 Yak -> 237]
Emperor Ike [239]
Arkasas [198 Cymsdale -> 241]

Cymsdale: 2
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]

Emperor Ike: 1
Yakman [178]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Emperor Ike: 4
Flockingbird [177]
Yakman [178]
Caillean [215]
alxeu[222]

Cymsdale: 3
Marty [188]
MAWofdoom [192]
Arkasas [198]

MAWofdoom: 3
Beartjah [175]
Team Wombat [183]
Wagonlitz [186]

Yakman: 1
Dedonus [181]

Wagonlitz: 1
Aedan [182]

Team Wombat: 1
Cymsdale [190]

Dedonus: 1
randakar [cymsdale 211 -> yakman 224 -> 225]

Not Voted: 1
Emperor Ike

Edit 5: I added green to the other villagers’ names.

Good result with MAW. Wish I'd followed through with voting him, but didn't want to just follow Beartjah.

I won't continue on Wagon because I used my one time seer scan on him and it came back clean. If anyone has a priest scan on him, then he's cleared, barring any curse turn.

I'm going to back to someone I was suspicious of yesterday who didn't get traction or do something to counter my suspicions. Back on day 1 Dedonus switched very quickly from voicing opposition to Historydude as a candidate to voting for him without any real argument. Wombat and I both pointed this out near simultaneously yesterday, though neither with a vote on Dedonus, but it was never followed up on or addressed by Dedonus. I want to circle back to that and put some pressure on it. None of the events regarding MAw are particularly clearing for Dedonus, so I don't think the case ther eis any weaker.

Vote Dedonus

Have some time today to get on before deadline, glad that people eventually realize that I said I seer scanned Wagon, was confused why he was still getting votes reading back through things. Not really sold on Randy as a candidate, and while I'm ambivalent towards Ike as a candidate, he's often an easy scapegoat and sending him up day after day leaves us in a bad state if he's lynched and revealed as a goodie.

Since Dedonus isn't going anywhere as a candidate, I'm not opposed to the switch to arkasas. Hasn't done much, and I don't like his vote on Beartjah. Beartjah gave the psychic result, which is good for the village, and I've been getting a goodie vibe from Beartjah.

Unvote Dedonus Vote Arkasas

I'll cover the rest of what you're saying in more detail, but for this specifically we have three days to parity, assuming 3 baddies is right, they have no shots, and no more ties happen. Parity is when six players are left, we lose two a day, so after 1 day 9 players left, after 2 7 players left, and after 3 5, and that's when we'd reach parity. Again, assuming all that I said and that we don't lynch any baddies.

I'm not really sold on Randy, but I don't have time for making a better case, either today in general, or before the impending deadline. I do think a tie would be a bad idea for the village though, so-

Vote Randakar

Honestly if I didn't know 100% for certain that Wagonlitz was not a wolf, I'd probably be voting for him today for trying to go for a tie between Randy and Flockingbird. It runs the risk of moving us a day closer to parity if neither was a wolf, and neither Randy nor Flockingbird were giving me wolf vibes, so I think that's probably what would have happened. If there are any non-wolf baddies in the game, I feel Wagon is one. But there might not be.

I'm going to return to the case I made a few days ago on Dedonus. On post 132, Wagon made the first switch to Historydude, immediately prior to Dedonus expressing concern that Historydude is an easy scapegoat candidate. The following as the count at the time-

Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
team wombat [97]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> alxeu 90 -> 104]

marty99: 3
MAWofdoom [cymsdale 83 -> ironhide 109 -> 117]
Dedonus [cymsdale 79 -> marty 111]
Emperor Ike [yakman 92 -> marty99 119]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Emperor Ike: 2
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]
yakman [ironhide 99 -> 130]

Historydude: 1
Wagonlitz [yakman 75 -> 132]

Alxeu: 1
aedan [80]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Wagonlitz: 1
Flockingbird [arkasas 85 -> 127]


As Dedonus has said before, there was a tie at the time. However it was one between Marty and Ironhide. This meant that while Dedonus switching from Marty to Historydude did break the tie, it did so in a very unstable and dangerous way. Ironhide was up by just one vote over four different candidates at 2 votes each. This made it incredible easy for a tie to be made with a single vote switch. We could've even seen a six way tie if someone on Ironhide switched to a one vote candidate. If Dedonus just wanted to break the tie, then the best switch was obviously to Ironhide, put him up by two over anyone else.

Instead Dedonus broke the tie by bring up another candidate into near lead consideration, one that Wagon was actively trying to lynch and Dedonus had expressed skepticism on whether they were a good candidate. It was not the most effective way to prevent a tie, and it also put Historydude under much greater likelihood of being lynched.

I just don't see this as villager behavior, to ineffectually break a tie and drive up someone you just said was probably not a good lynch.

I don't really see any good reason people have given for why Dedonus is a likely goodie, and I don't think him getting overshadowed by candidates like Randy and Arkasas (now known goodies) on day 3 is a point in his favor either.

I think Dedonus is the most likely wolf, and our best lynch for today.

Vote Dedonus

1st edit: I didn’t post the “in,” or Saturday’s “Vote alxeu”posts.

 

[Flockingbird]

I went back to get more context on the quote I didn’t understand. Wagon is responding to bear’s statement that the tie was a bad idea.

No, it's not. It can give us data, and crucially it can also prevent moronic behaviour like targeting the survivor as they clearly must be a wolf. As such, a day 1 tie in a big often can be good, actually.

How many times have we not had a close race of two villlagers with the survivor then run up the following day as clearly they had to be a wolf who was saved?

Then he voted MAW (3rd to do so) and stayed on MAW all day.

It's definitely bad to keep running up people who weren't lynched day 1 over accusations of them being saved. That doesn't mean the correct solution is to ensure the death of anyone who gets serious pressure day 1 to prevent them from being run up day 2. That's just ensuring the death of a probable villager faster.

I still can’t parse your sentence, aedan.

 

[Dedonus]

Honestly if I didn't know 100% for certain that Wagonlitz was not a wolf, I'd probably be voting for him today for trying to go for a tie between Randy and Flockingbird. It runs the risk of moving us a day closer to parity if neither was a wolf, and neither Randy nor Flockingbird were giving me wolf vibes, so I think that's probably what would have happened. If there are any non-wolf baddies in the game, I feel Wagon is one. But there might not be.

I'm going to return to the case I made a few days ago on Dedonus. On post 132, Wagon made the first switch to Historydude, immediately prior to Dedonus expressing concern that Historydude is an easy scapegoat candidate. The following as the count at the time-

Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
team wombat [97]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> alxeu 90 -> 104]

marty99: 3
MAWofdoom [cymsdale 83 -> ironhide 109 -> 117]
Dedonus [cymsdale 79 -> marty 111] // 111 comes before 117...
Emperor Ike [yakman 92 -> marty99 119]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Emperor Ike: 2
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]
yakman [ironhide 99 -> 130]

Historydude: 1
Wagonlitz [yakman 75 -> 132]

Alxeu: 1
aedan [80]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Wagonlitz: 1
Flockingbird [arkasas 85 -> 127]


As Dedonus has said before, there was a tie at the time. However it was one between Marty and Ironhide. This meant that while Dedonus switching from Marty to Historydude did break the tie, it did so in a very unstable and dangerous way. Ironhide was up by just one vote over four different candidates at 2 votes each. This made it incredible easy for a tie to be made with a single vote switch. We could've even seen a six way tie if someone on Ironhide switched to a one vote candidate. If Dedonus just wanted to break the tie, then the best switch was obviously to Ironhide, put him up by two over anyone else.

Instead Dedonus broke the tie by bring up another candidate into near lead consideration, one that Wagon was actively trying to lynch and Dedonus had expressed skepticism on whether they were a good candidate. It was not the most effective way to prevent a tie, and it also put Historydude under much greater likelihood of being lynched.

I just don't see this as villager behavior, to ineffectually break a tie and drive up someone you just said was probably not a good lynch.

I don't really see any good reason people have given for why Dedonus is a likely goodie, and I don't think him getting overshadowed by candidates like Randy and Arkasas (now known goodies) on day 3 is a point in his favor either.

I think Dedonus is the most likely wolf, and our best lynch for today.

Vote Dedonus

This tired case again.

Aedan still ignores the fact that I only had approximately 2 minutes to attempt to break the tie, as I realized Yakman had created one when I was trying to tally up a vote count. Human error is a thing and, because I was racing against the clock, I was more focused on breaking the tie and getting my vote in before the deadline instead of making the optimal decision.

There also a big hole in this argument that Aedan fails to bring up. Who was I saving by moving my vote, Aedan? Who was I saving? I took the liberty to color in the vote count you provided in your post. Clearly not marty, as I suggested him after Ironhide received 5 votes. Obviously not Ironhide either.

It is interesting that both MAW and Ike followed me to Marty, especially since both players had two votes each. Each of them did this twice, in fact (Cymsdale and Marty, and Marty and HistoryDude, respectively). Maybe packmates trying to make sure neither of them get lynched on Day 1? Aedan, for whatever reason placed MAW first, but I'll chalk that up to a simple mistake.

Also curious that Aedan isn't also suggesting Ike, because Ike was the one who made the tie, not me. The whole "you should have voted Ironhide instead of HistoryDude" applies to him, too, but Aedan doesn't mention that. Ever since MAW suggested we make a tie (interesting that a wolf wants to make a day 1 tie), I kept repeating that we should NOT tie. My actions backs those statements up (I even mentioned that fact there was a tie in my vote switch to HistoryDude). It isn't my fault that Ike also switched his vote moments after I did. So, why isn't Aedan bringing up a case against Ike?

They're obviously packmates.

VOTE Ike

 

[Emperor Ike]

So Marty wants to kill two villagers today and is already advocating to kill another one tomorrow. That is highly suspicious behavior that clearly is aimed for the village to kill themselves.

 

[Deleted user]

Day 5 Votecount: ~1.75 hours to deadline

Dedonus: 2
Aedan [531]
beartjah [535]

Emperor Ike: 2
Marty [537]
Dedonus [545]

Flockingbird: 1
Wagonlitz [512]

Not Voted: 4
@Culann
@Emperor Ike
@Flockingbird
@Yakman

 

[Wagonlitz]

So Marty wants to kill to villagers to day and is already advocating to kill another one tomorrow. That is highly suspicious behavior that clearly is aimed for the village to kill themselves.

Indeed. Feels really like a wolf, albeit Deo has a point about Maw trying to switch to Marty day 1, but that switch never took off and it was IG and Hustory, so not too dangerous.


Anyway, we're having Flock tonight!

 

[Culann]

Do I not word my posts well, because people keep missing it.
Ike was a major candidate run up against MAW. In fact, before the outing he was in major danger of hanging, and so was Maw. As such it's very unlikely thst Maw and Ike are mates. In fact, Ike was one vote ahead of Cyms and Maw. I just don't see any way the two of them are run up like that as wolves unless the wolves are totally incompetent.

I think we're just having an honest misunderstanding over the word cleared. Cleared to me means that someone was scanned or double scanned.

I didn't seem to get anything different from a second read-through, though Marty got a lot more than I did. I don't agree with all of his assertions but at the least he woke up. As for his call to action lynching Dedonus as a relative unknown doesn't seem like a bad idea to me. As for lynching Aedan it seems unlikely that he would lie about scanning Wagon. If they were both wolves that lie would expose Wagon. If Aedan was a wolf, Wagon would be hunted by now so he can benefit from the claim.

Vote Dedonus

 

[Flockingbird]

If both Ike and Maw are wolves, then the wolves did really poorly in letting two of three front runners be wolves.

The problem with this argument is that the wolves can’t prevent living villagers from voting wolves. And the sole thing making me doubt my assessment of you is you are the D2 voter #3 on MAW.

I have found your posts and arguments confusing. That’s unusual - the Wagon I know outside WW argues straightforwardly; the Wagon I see here argues like a lawyer. I think you’re a wolf, but I’m not sure.

@Culann—why Dedonus rather than Ike?

@beartjah @Yakman —please chime in. I’m more inclined to vote Ike than Dedonus, but I’ve been on Ike and I could be wrong.

Edit: apologies, bear; I forgot you posted already.

 

[Emperor Ike]

Indeed. Feels really like a wolf, albeit Deo has a point about Maw trying to switch to Marty day 1, but that switch never took off and it was IG and Hustory, so not too dangerous.


Anyway, we're having Flock tonight!

Seems like people rather have Dedonus

 

[Deleted user]

@Yakman

As I'm pretty sure he won't get the mention as I edited it in.

 

[Emperor Ike]

Well YAKMAN will probably just vote me as he has done all game just for the sake of it.

 

[Yakman]

Well YAKMAN will probably just vote me as he has done all game just for the sake of it.

yup

Vote @Emperor Ike

 

[Deleted user]

You and DNFC got married? Grats!

Yes, we got married, we have a child.

 

[Wagonlitz]

Hmm.
Maws vote on Marty was more dangerous than I remembered.
I've quoted all votes below.
If I hadn't called for the switch to history then Marty might have died.

So that probably does mean Marty is a likely villager, as Maw was a big part in running up parts.
Though, could also be ruthless wolf exploiting a Zombie mate.

Day 1 Votecount: ~1.5 hours to deadline

Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
team wombat [97]
yakman [99]

Yakman: 2
Wagonlitz [75]
Emperor Ike [92]

Cymsdale: 2
Dedonus [79]
MAWofdoom [83]

Alxeu: 2
aedan [80]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> 90]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Arkasas: 1
Flockingbird [85]

Emperor Ike: 1
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]

Not Voted: 3
@Ironhide G1
@HistoryDude
@marty99

Unvote alxeu
Vote ironhide

Sounds good, I'm good with Ironhide today.

Unvote cymsdale
Vote Ironhide

While Ironhide is indeed a zombie right now, it does look a bit suspicious that he's already at five votes without much movement onto other players.

unvote Cymsdale
vote marty99

Agreed. I rolled a perception check with advantage using my heightened sense of smell class feature and got 2 nat 20's: something smells fishy.

Compared to most players here, I'm rather inexperienced, though it's true I'm definitely not new. Nonetheless I've never learned the intricacies of tie strategy.

Marty's not in contention yet and ironhide has almost all the votes, so if I'm not back, I'll at least help people be able to choose between the two.

Unvote ironhide
Vote marty

I suppose YAKMAN gets a free pass today's so to wake up some zombies it's better to switch

Unvote YAKMAN
Vote Marty

No. Smells wolfy.

UNVOTE ARKASAS
VOTE WAGONLITZ

Ironhide 4, marty 3

Wolf sign?

Unvote @Ironhide G1
Vote @Emperor Ike

Thsi.
History is a non voter, right?

If so, then lets vote him. He might be shielded.

Unvote Yakman
Vote history

Switch to History!

unvote marty
vote historydude

since I believe there was a tie.

Unvote Marty
Vote historydude

Dammit tie

UNVOTE WAGON
VOTE IRONHIDE

Final Day 1 Votecount

Ironhide: 3
alxeu [82]
team wombat [97]
Cymsdale [77 Yak -> 90 alxeu -> 104 IH]

HistoryDude: 3
Wagonlitz [75 Yak ->132]
Dedonus [79 Cymsdale -> 111 marty ->138]
Emperor Ike [92 Yak -> 119 marty -> 140]

MAWofdoom: 2
Arkasas [84]
Caillean [102]

Emperor Ike: 2
randakar [81 aedan -> 101]
yakman [99 IH -> 130]

Marty: 1
MAWofdoom [83 Cymsdale -> 109 IH -> 117 marty]

Alxeu: 1
aedan [80]

Aedan: 1
beartjah [86]

Wagonlitz: 1
Flockingbird [85 Arky -> 127]

Not Voted: 3
Ironhide G1
HistoryDude
marty99

With this vote being recorded by the forum as occurring at 19:00 GMT, it does not count. It's been generally accepted that the forum clock is used when a vote is potentially late.

 

[Emperor Ike]

yup

Vote @Emperor Ike

See I told you. Based wolf action as he had been doing all game.

 

[Culann]

The problem with this argument is that the wolves can’t prevent living villagers from voting wolves. And the sole thing making me doubt my assessment of you is you are the D2 voter #3 on MAW.

I have found your posts and arguments confusing. That’s unusual - the Wagon I know outside WW argues straightforwardly; the Wagon I see here argues like a lawyer. I think you’re a wolf, but I’m not sure.

@Culann—why Dedonus rather than Ike?

@beartjah @Yakman —please chime in. I’m more inclined to vote Ike than Dedonus, but I’ve been on Ike and I could be wrong.

Edit: apologies, bear; I forgot you posted already.

I don't have a reason to me they are both unknowns, as I don't agree with Wagon's assertion that Ike is a likely villager. If anything, Aedan makes a decent case and full transparency I've won more games than I should have following clever people. Aedan certainly fits that bill. This based on my assertion that Aedan is a goodie which I said in a previous post.

 

[Flockingbird]

Ike and I are the only ones who haven’t voted, aren’t we? He’ll have to vote Dedo if no new people are run up. So if I vote Ike, he’ll tie with Dedo, and then Wagon will snipe?

Advice please, soon.

 

[Flockingbird]

Unofficial tally:

Dedonus: 3
Aedan [531]
beartjah [535]
Culann [549]

Emperor Ike: 3
Marty [537]
Dedonus [545]
Yakman [554]

Flockingbird: 1
Wagonlitz [512]

Not Voted: 4
@Emperor Ike
@Flockingbird